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Incorporating life history diversity in an integrated population model to inform viability analysis

Life history diversity can significantly affect population dynamics and effects of management actions. For instance, variation in individual responses to environmental variability can reduce extirpation risk to populations, as the portfolio effect dampens temporal variability in abundance. Moreover, differences in habitat use may cause individuals to respond differently to habitat management and climate variability. To explore the role of life history diversity in population trajectories, population models need to incorporate within-population variation. Integrated population modeling (IPM) is a population modeling approach that offers several advantages for sharing information and propagating uncertainty across datasets. In this study, we developed an IPM for an endangered population of Chinook salmon ( Oncorhynchus tshawytscha ) in the Wenatchee River, Washington, USA, that accounts for diversity in juvenile life histories, spawning location, and return age. Our analysis revealed that diversity in the age of juvenile emigration from natal streams had a portfolio effect, resulting in a 20% reduction in year-to-year variability in adult abundance in population projections. Our population viability analysis suggests that management interventions may be necessary to meet recovery goals, and our model should be useful for simulating the outcomes of proposed actions.

Washington

Habitat use of anadromous and amphidromous sturgeons in North America: A systematic review

Sturgeons are among the most endangered fishes in the world. Identifying habitat use characteristics to inform restoration projects is crucial for recovery. However, small sample sizes, inadequate replication of studies, and limited spatial extents complicate our ability to effectively apply the findings of single studies to endangered species conservation across the larger riverscape. We synthesized information from amphidromous and anadromous sturgeons in North America to identify species-specific knowledge gaps and conduct a quantitative comparison of species–habitat relationships. We provided a qualitative summary of substrate use and synthesized estimates of depth and velocity during spawning and non-spawning activity. Generalized patterns among species were identified, such as spawning in fast water on hard substrate and then using slow water with soft substrate areas when not spawning. We noted species-specific variability during spawning that may be attributed to historical maximum length, egg characteristics, and watershed features. This study provides some of the first estimates of habitat use that can be adapted for many populations. Results can contribute to empirically grounded decision-support tools used to prioritize information needs for recovery.

Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences

An integrative approach to assessing bridle shiner (Notropis bifrenatus) distribution using environmental DNA and traditional techniques

The bridle shiner ( Notropis bifrenatus ) is a small cyprinid native to the eastern United States and Canada. Bridle shiner populations have declined across their range, and the species now receives concern status or legal protection in 13 states and two provinces. Bridle shiners were historically found in southern and western Maine in densely vegetated, shallow habitats along the shorelines of streams and ponds. We surveyed areas of Maine that supported historical bridle shiner populations using environmental DNA (eDNA) and traditional seine netting methods, and then used eDNA sampling to survey areas with unknown bridle shiner presence. We rediscovered bridle shiner populations at 11 of 32 historically occupied waterbodies and documented bridle shiners in four additional waterbodies. We determined that both eDNA and seine net surveys are viable options for monitoring bridle shiners in Maine and identified ways to streamline the eDNA methods used in this study to reduce the time and cost of future surveys.

Maine

Sprinting performance and behavior of adult shortnose sturgeon (Acipenser brevirostrum)

Swimming ability and performance are central to the ecology of aquatic species and to the design of structures intended to promote access to habitat. This is particularly important for migratory species traveling over significant distances. Here, we present results of a study of swimming behaviors of adult shortnose sturgeon ( Acipenser brevirostrum ). Sturgeon were presented with velocity challenges of 0.5–2.5 m·s ‒1 in a 35 m long flume that they were allowed to enter and ascend volitionally. Attempt rate was greatest among large sturgeon, at warm temperatures, and at low flow velocities. Sturgeon swam for shorter distances and durations against high-velocity flows; larger sturgeon had greater overall performance and endurance, but when velocities were standardized to body lengths the relative performance was reduced with increased body size. Overall, however, sturgeon were able to swim at much greater speeds than previously predicted, consistent with other studies showing that volitional performance exceeds that of data collected in common laboratory apparatus.

Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences

Differences in life history patterns of American shad, Alosa sapidissima, populations between ancestral, Atlantic coast, and non-native, Pacific coast rivers of North America

Organisms naturalized outside their native range can reveal new life history patterns in new environments. Here, we compare life history patterns of American shad, Alosa sapidissima, from five rivers along the U.S. Pacific coast (introduced range) with contemporary data from the Atlantic coast source populations. The Pacific coast fish grew slower, matured at a younger age, and were less often iteroparous than conspecifics from the Hudson River and Susquehanna River sources. Differences among the Pacific coast populations indicated that some combination of phenotypic plasticity and genetic adaptation has occurred since the transplants in the 1870s. Microchemical analysis of otoliths from returning adults demonstrated an immature, extended freshwater life history form, locally known as “mini-shad”. These fish remain in the river for at least 1 year or enter salt water briefly and then return to fresh water for several months prior to subsequent seaward migration and return as adults. This and other forms of variation (extent of estuary use and size at sea water entry) expand the understanding of Alosine migration and life history diversity.

Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences

Synchrony of alewife, Alosa pseudoharengus, year-class strength in the Great Lakes region

Fish recruitment is interannually variable and challenging to predict. Annual recruitment is often regionally synchronized among populations and identifying drivers of such synchrony may help shed light on recruitment dynamics. We investigated interannual variation of alewife Alosa pseudoharengus recruitment by estimating year-class strength for populations from three of the Laurentian Great Lakes (lakes Huron, Michigan, and Ontario) using annual assessment survey data from 1968 to 2022. We first determined the age when year-class strength was set for each dataset. We then used a mixed-modeling approach incorporating age, year-class, and sampling year to estimate year-class strength for each study lake. Thereafter, we evaluated regional synchrony in year-class strength across the three lakes and evaluated potential climatic drivers of synchrony. Our results suggest that alewife year-class strength is set by age-1. Our model-derived indices of alewife year-class strength were synchronized among the three lakes, and we identified spring-summer degree-days as a potential regional driver of synchrony. This analysis highlights the potential for strong influence of climatic conditions on fish recruitment in large freshwater systems.

Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences

Effects of temperature, body size, and sex on the standard metabolic rates of a sexually dimorphic freshwater piscivore, walleye (Sander vitreus)

Walleye ( Sander vitreus ) are a sexually dimorphic freshwater piscivore that have long been studied using bioenergetics modeling, yet robust estimates of metabolic rates for use in those models have been lacking. Therefore, we quantified the effects of body mass, water temperature, and sex, on standard metabolic rate (SMR). We estimated SMR across temperatures ranging 0.5–24 °C using intermittent-flow respirometry for male ( n = 54) and female ( n = 53) walleye raised in hatchery conditions. We found a significant interaction between sex and temperature, whereby males had lower SMR below 16 °C, but increased such that SMR was ∼16% higher than females at 22 °C. The mass-scaling coefficient, b , was similar for both sexes at a value around 1. These estimates are the first to be generated using respirometry for adult walleye and differ slightly from those being used by previous bioenergetics models, which may have underestimated the energetic costs of SMR, and did not include sex-specific estimates for metabolism.

Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences

Multi-decadal trophic shifts in Lake Erie yellow perch Perca flavescens

In Lake Erie, yellow perch Perca flavescens support vast commercial and recreational fisheries, yet populations have recently declined. Using N = 5889 yellow perch stomachs collected from 1997 to 2021, we explored trends in the feeding ecology and trophic level of yellow perch with generalized additive models. Models revealed a significant decrease in yellow perch trophic level (−0.15 trophic levels in the last decade), and significant dietary shifts. Yellow perch have shifted away from feeding on piscine prey and round goby Neogobius melanostomus over the 25-year period, and now feed on invertebrates more frequently—including invasive waterfleas ( Bythotrephes longimanus and Cercopagis pengoi ) and chironomids. Dietary patterns appear to reflect broad ecological changes—invasive waterfleas have proliferated while populations of forage fish and round goby have declined. Furthermore, hypoxia events have increased in duration and severity, which may explain observed increases in chironomid consumption, which are hypoxia tolerant. This study demonstrates trophic adaptability in yellow perch, which have changed feeding behavior and trophic position in response to novel invaders and changing environmental conditions.

Lake Erie

Declines and shifts in morphological diversity of ciscoes (Coregonus spp.) in lakes Huron and Michigan, 1917–2019

Ciscoes ( Coregonus spp . ) were historically abundant and ecologically important in Laurentian Great Lakes ecosystems. Despite well-documented declines in their abundance and taxonomic diversity, declines in morphological diversity remain understudied. This knowledge gap is especially pertinent for lakes Michigan and Huron, which have each lost six of eight historical species. Improved understanding of historical and contemporary morphological diversity of Great Lakes ciscoes can inform ongoing restoration efforts and further elucidate the factors that contributed to declines. Our goal was to characterize shifts in morphological diversity of ciscoes in lakes Michigan and Huron over a century (1917–2019). We analyzed size-corrected morphometric and meristic measurements from three periods: Early (1917–1923), Middle (1950–1972), and Contemporary (2015–2019). We then identified morphologically distinct clusters while remaining agnostic to species identifications. We found that morphological diversity and the number of distinct clusters declined over time. We then leveraged species identifications to highlight key species losses and examine morphological shifts among extant species. Our findings provide insights into the historical and contemporary morphological diversity of ciscoes and will inform restoration efforts.

Lake Huron, Lake Michigan

Diminishing productivity and hyperstable harvest in northern Wisconsin walleye fisheries

Managing fisheries in a changing socio-ecological environment may require holistic approaches for identifying and adapting to novel ecosystem dynamics. Using 32 years of Ceded Territory of Wisconsin (CTWI) walleye (Sander vitreus) data, we estimated production (P), biomass (B), biomass turnover (P/B), yield (Y), and yield over production (Y/P) and tested for hyperstability in walleye yield. Most CTWI walleye populations showed low P, and B, and Y/P < 1. Yet, production overharvest (Y/P > 1) was prevalent among Wisconsin walleye recruitment-based management approaches (natural recruitment [NR], sustained only by stocking, combination). Production, B, and P/B have declined in NR populations, while Y and Y/P have remained constant. Walleye Y was hyperstable along a production gradient among all management approaches and fishery types (i.e., angling only, angling/tribal harvest combined). Diminishing productivity and hyperstable yield may be jointly contributing to observed walleye declines. We classified lakes into management groups of low, moderate, or high vulnerability to harvest based on Y/P and P/B dynamics and recommend that exploitation may need to decline to maintain or increase the adaptive capacity of CTWI walleye.

Wisconsin

Applying mark-resight, count, and telemetry data to estimate effective sampling area and fish density with stationary underwater cameras

Accurate estimates of abundance and density for geographically open populations must account for the effective sampling area (ESA) of sampling gears. We describe a Marked N-Mixture model to estimate ESA and density (number of individuals/unit area) from repeated counts of unmarked and marked individuals, integrating mark-resight, camera counts, and telemetry data of red snapper ( Lutjanus campechanus ) at a 1.6 km 2 reef off North Carolina, USA. Cameras recorded observations of unmarked and marked individuals, whereas telemetry data indicated the number of tagged fish present on the reef. We estimated density (95 individuals/km 2 , 95%CI: 58–149), ESA (which was lower when current direction was towards the camera), detection probability (0.06, 95%CI: 0.03–0.09), and covariate relationships. Simulation studies under different scenarios of data quality and space use identified positive bias in density estimates from N-mixture models due to fish movement. In contrast, the Marked N-Mixture model returned unbiased estimates of density, ESA, and detection parameters, and appears to be a more robust method for modeling density given the data available for this analysis. This approach can be applied to other populations where count and telemetry data overlap in space and time.

North Carolina

Cycles in adult steelhead length suggest interspecific competition in the North Pacific Ocean

Anadromous fishes rely on abundant prey in the ocean to grow large quickly, but prey limitation leads to interspecific competition. When species interactions are difficult to observe, growth can be studied to detect otherwise cryptic signals of competition. We describe a previously undocumented two-year cycle in the lengths of adult natural-origin steelhead ( Oncorhynchus mykiss ) returning to spawn in the Snake River Basin. Returning steelhead were 38 mm shorter on odd return years, not accounting for sex, stock, and years of ocean residence. The well-known cycle in abundance of Pink Salmon from eastern Kamchatka and North America had statistically significant negative effects on returning steelhead lengths that depended on sex and the number of years of ocean residence. These results suggest that competition for limited resources occurs well after initial ocean entry and that interactions during later stages of ocean residence can be influential. Interspecific competition has implications for future returns of steelhead from the ocean, especially as metabolic demands for steelhead increase as the ocean warms.

North Pacific Ocean

Evaluating the effectiveness of joint species distribution modeling for fresh water fish communities within large watersheds

Accurately predicting species’ distributions is critical for the management and conservation of fish and wildlife populations. Joint Species Distribution Models (JSDMs) account for dependencies between species often ignored by traditional species distribution models. We evaluated how a JSDM approach could improve predictive strength for stream fish communities within large watersheds (the Chesapeake Bay Watershed, USA), using a cross-validation study of JSDMs fit to data from over 50 species. Our results suggest that conditional predictions from JSDMs have the potential to make large improvements in predictive accuracy for many species, particularly for more generalist species where single species models may not perform well. For some species there was no added explanatory effect from conditional information, most of which already exhibited strong marginal predictive ability. For several rare species there were significant improvements in occurrence predictions, while the results for two invasive species considered did not show the same improvements. Overall, the optimal number of species to condition upon, as well as the effects of conditioning upon an increasing number of species, varied widely among species.

Chesapeake Bay watershed

Paired comparisons with quiet surface drones show evidence of fish behavioral response to motorized vessels during acoustic surveys in Lake Superior

Acoustic surveys are important for fish stock assessments, but fish responses to survey vessels can bias acoustic estimates. We leveraged quiet uncrewed surface vessels (USVs) to characterize potential bias in acoustic surveys. Five conventional motorized ships overtook USVs from astern over 2 km transects at night in Lake Superior in 2022. We examined the difference in acoustic backscatter, average target depth, and average target strength (TS) between USV and motorized vessels. Although sound level measurements from the motorized vessels sometimes exceeded recommendations for scientific vessels, we did not detect differences in acoustic measures among survey vessels. However, the USVs recorded 2 dB higher acoustic backscatter and TS than motorized vessels, leading to ~15% higher fish densities with drones when using in situ TS and echo integration. Differences in fish density would increase to 30-60% if a standard TS value was applied. Target depth did not differ between USVs and motorized ships. These results are consistent with a change in orientation but not depth of insonified fish and limited horizontal avoidance of motorized survey vessels.

Lake Superior

Evolutionary perspectives on thiamine supplementation of managed Pacific salmonid populations

Thiamine deficiency complex (TDC) has been identified in an ever-expanding list of species and populations. In many documented occurrences of TDC in fishes, juvenile mortality can be high—up to 90% at the population level. Such sweeping demographic losses and concomitant decreases in genetic diversity due to TDC can be prevented by treating pre-spawn females or fertilized eggs with supplemental thiamine. However, some fisheries managers are hesitant to widely apply thiamine treatments due to the potential for unforeseen evolutionary consequences. With these concerns in mind, we first review the existing data regarding genetic adaptation to low-thiamine conditions and provide perspectives on evolution-informed treatment strategies with specific population examples. We also provide practical treatment information, consider the potential logistical constraints of thiamine supplementation, and explore the consequences of deciding against supplementation. Until new evidence bolsters or refutes the genetic adaptation hypothesis, we suggest that TDC mitigation strategies should be designed to support maximum population genetic diversity through thiamine supplementation.

Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences

Climate and connectivity mediate overwintering habitat suitability for centrarchids in a large floodplain river network

Availability of suitable overwintering habitat is crucial for the survival of centrarchids in large floodplain rivers. However, there remains uncertainty in the spatiotemporal drivers of suitable conditions. We paired hydrogeomorphic characteristics with environmental data from 1994 to 2018 in individual lentic areas to (1) assess overwintering habitat availability throughout the Upper Mississippi River System using existing habitat suitability indices (HSIs) and (2) explore potential drivers of overall habitat suitability (HSI O ) and its components (dissolved oxygen, temperature, and flow). We found that flow velocities that exceeded suitable thresholds were independently responsible for 53% of nonsuitable habitats, and connectivity with lotic channels and river discharge increased velocity within lentic habitats. Additionally, colder winter conditions reduced water temperature, reducing availability of highly suitable habitat. Our results indicate that although warmer winters could increase the availability of highly suitable habitat for centrarchids, changes in flow regimes could lead to more connected areas becoming unsuitable. Our results provide critical information on factors that can be prioritized to manage centrarchid habitat, which is especially important in the context of uncertain future climate.

upper Mississippi River

Estimating drivers and identifying uncertainties in smallmouth bass population dynamics in an invaded river network

Smallmouth bass ( Micropterus dolomieu ) is an important recreational sportfish and destructive non-native species when introduced into freshwater habitats. There is therefore a need to understand the drivers of, and uncertainties in, smallmouth bass population dynamics for various management objectives. We combined long-term smallmouth bass catch-effort and early life history data from a non-native population in the Green River sub-basin of the upper Colorado River to develop a demographic model that links interannual variability in environmental conditions to recruitment in three river reaches. We used the model to quantify how hydrology, river temperature, and exploitation drive smallmouth bass population dynamics. Early life stages were influenced by timing of hatching and discharge. Dispersal of age-0 fish and density-dependent dynamics were identified as primary sources of uncertainty. Determining the true nature of density-dependent dynamics is important, as the impact of exploitation-based management actions is dependent on the strengths of any density-dependent feedbacks. Our model provides a framework to predict smallmouth bass population responses to future climate conditions, reservoir operations, and exploitation levels.

Utah

Declining reservoir elevations following a two-decade drought increase water temperatures and non-native fish passage facilitating a downstream invasion

River ecosystems are threatened by interactions among river regulation, non-native species, and climate change. Water use has exceeded supply in USA’s Colorado River basin draining its two largest storage reservoirs (Lake Powell and Lake Mead). In 2022, Lake Powell began releasing water from its lower epilimnion into the Grand Canyon segment of the Colorado River, which (1) increased rates of fish passage from the reservoir through the dam and (2) created river temperatures suitable for establishment of non-native fishes. Subsequently, smallmouth bass ( Micropterus dolomieu) reproduced there for the first time. To assist managers concerned about this invasion, we developed models that (1) predicted propagule pressure at different reservoir elevations and (2) linked reservoir storage/operations, water temperatures, and population dynamics to forecast smallmouth bass population growth potential. Maintaining Lake Powell elevations above 1094 m (3590 ft) would likely minimize propagule pressure from the reservoir and create downstream conditions that minimize smallmouth bass population growth. Dam and reservoir management will likely be less effective for managing smallmouth bass if smallmouth bass become abundant in far downstream reaches.

Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences