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Detection and Measurement of Land Subsidence Using Global Positioning System Surveying and Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar, Coachella Valley, California, 1996-2005

Land subsidence associated with ground-water-level declines has been investigated by the U.S. Geological Survey in the Coachella Valley, California, since 1996. Ground water has been a major source of agricultural, municipal, and domestic supply in the valley since the early 1920s. Pumping of ground water resulted in water-level declines as large as 15 meters (50 feet) through the late 1940s. In 1949, the importation of Colorado River water to the southern Coachella Valley began, resulting in a reduction in ground-water pumping and a recovery of water levels during the 1950s through the 1970s. Since the late 1970s, demand for water in the valley has exceeded deliveries of imported surface water, resulting in increased pumping and associated ground-water-level declines and, consequently, an increase in the potential for land subsidence caused by aquifer-system compaction. Global Positioning System (GPS) surveying and interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) methods were used to determine the location, extent, and magnitude of the vertical land-surface changes in the southern Coachella Valley. GPS measurements made at 13 geodetic monuments in 1996 and in 2005 in the southern Coachella Valley indicate that the elevation of the land surface had a net decline of 333 to 22 millimeters ?58 millimeters (1.1 to 0.07 foot ?0.19 foot) during the 9-year period. Changes at 10 of the 13 monuments exceeded the maximum uncertainty of ?58 millimeters (?0.19 foot) at the 95-percent confidence level, indicating that subsidence occurred at these monuments between June 1996 and August 2005. GPS measurements made at 20 geodetic monuments in 2000 and in 2005 indicate that the elevation of the land surface changed -312 to +25 millimeters ?42 millimeters (-1.0 to +0.08 foot ?0.14 foot) during the 5-year period. Changes at 14 of the 20 monuments exceeded the maximum uncertainty of ?42 millimeters (?0.14 foot) at the 95-percent confidence level, indicating that subsidence occurred at these monuments between August 2000 and August 2005. Eight of the fourteen monuments for which subsidence rates could be compared indicate that subsidence rates increased by as much as a factor of 10 between 2000 and 2005 compared with subsidence rates before 2000. InSAR measurements made between May 7, 2003, and September 25, 2005, indicate that land subsidence, ranging from about 75 to 180 millimeters (0.25 to 0.59 foot), occurred in three areas of the Coachella Valley: near Palm Desert, Indian Wells, and La Quinta; the equivalent subsidence rates range from about 3 to more than 6 mm/month (0.01 to 0.02 ft/month). The subsiding areas near Palm Desert, Indian Wells, and La Quinta were previously identified using InSAR measurements for 1996-2000, which indicated that about 35 to 150 mm (0.11 to 0.49 ft) of subsidence occurred during the four-year period; the equivalent subsidence rates range from about 1 to 3 mm/month (0.003 to 0.01 ft/month). Comparison of the InSAR results indicates that subsidence rates have increased 2 to 4 times since 2000 in these three areas. Water-level measurements made at wells near the subsiding monuments and in the three subsiding areas generally indicated that the water levels fluctuated seasonally and declined annually between 1996 and 2005; some water levels in 2005 were at the lowest levels in their recorded histories. The coincident areas of subsidence and declining water levels suggest that aquifer-system compaction may be causing subsidence. If the stresses imposed by the historically lowest water levels exceeded the preconsolidation stress, the aquifer-system compaction and associated land subsidence may be permanent. Although the localized character of the subsidence signals is typical of the type of subsidence characteristically caused by localized ground-water pumping, the subsidence may also be related to tectonic activity in the valley.

Scientific Investigations Report

Occurrence and distribution of dissolved pesticides in the San Joaquin River basin, California

The effects of pesticide application, hydrology, and chemical and physical properties on the occurrence of pesticides in surface water in the San Joaquin River Basin, California, were examined. The study of pesticide occurrence in the highly agricultural San Joaquin?Tulare Basins is part of the National Water-Quality Assessment Program of the U.S. Geological Survey. One hundred forty-three water samples were collected throughout 1993 from sites on the San Joaquin River and three of its tributaries: Orestimba Creek, Salt Slough, and the Merced River. Of the 83 pesticides selected for analysis in this study, 49 different compounds were detected in samples from the four sites and ranged in concentration from less than the detection limit to 20 micrograms per liter. All but one sample contained at least one pesticide, and more than 50 percent of the samples contained seven or more pesticides. Six compounds were detected in more than 50 percent of the samples: four herbicides (dacthal, EPTC, metolachlor, and simazine) and two insecticides (chlorpyrifos and diazinon). None of the measured concentrations exceeded U.S. Environmental Protection Agency drinking water criteria, and many of the measured concentrations were very low. The concentrations of seven pesticides exceeded criteria for the protection of freshwater aquatic life: azinphos-methyl, carbaryl, chlorpyrifos, diazinon, diuron, malathion, and trifluralin. Overall, some criteria for protection of aquatic life were exceeded in a total of 97 samples. Factors affecting the spatial patterns of occurrence of the pesticides in the different subbasins included the pattern of application and hydrology. Seventy percent of pesticides with known application were detected. Overall, 40 different pesticides were detected in Orestimba Creek, 33 in Salt Slough, and 26 in the Merced River. Samples from the Merced River had a relatively low number of detections, despite the high number (35) of pesticides applied, owing to the generally low percentage of irrigation return flow and contribution of pesticide-free streamflow from reservoir releases. Irrigation return flows in the Orestimba Creek and Salt Slough subbasins generally contained more pesticides at higher concentrations. In addition, the distribution of seven pesticides (alachlor, cyanazine, dacthal, fonofos, molinate, napropamide, and trifluralin) in the subbasins showed a direct spatial correspondence between occurrence and application rates. Temporal patterns of occurrence also were affected by patterns of application and hydrology. Most pesticides showed a clear correspondence between the times of their application and their occurrence. Fourteen pesticides had maximum application and concentrations during the summer irrigation season. However, several pesticides exhibited maximum concentrations during winter storms, although maximum application occurred at some other time of year?the result of differences in precipitation and streamflow between seasons. In some subbasins, precipitation runoff was more effective than irrigation return flows at transporting pesticides from the site of application to the stream. Also, during autumn, when there was neither precipitation nor irrigation, the transport of pesticides to streams was limited. The effect of chemical and physical properties on the occurrence of pesticides was examined for the San Joaquin River Basin as a whole. The runoff potential of each pesticide, calculated from the solubility, water-soil organic carbon partition coefficient Koc, and hydrolysis half-life, is generally consistent with the frequency of detection of pesticides in surface water in relation to the amount applied. These three properties each were generally, and weakly, correlated with the relative load of the pesticides in surface water. Pesticide occurrence and concentrations at the mouth of the basin (the San Joaquin River near Vernalis) was compared with pesticide occurrence and concentration in the three

Water-Resources Investigations Report

Anticoagulant rodenticides in Strix owls indicate widespread exposure in west coast forests

Exposure of nontarget wildlife to anticoagulant rodenticides (AR) is a global conservation concern typically centered around urban or agricultural areas. Recently, however, the illegal use of ARs in remote forests of California, USA, has exposed sensitive predators, including the federally threatened northern spotted owl ( Strix occidentalis caurina ). We used congeneric barred owls ( S. varia ) as a sentinel species to investigate whether ARs pose a threat to spotted owls and other old-forest wildlife in northern regions of the Pacific Northwest. We analyzed the liver tissue from 40 barred owls collected in Oregon and Washington and confirmed exposure to ≥1 AR compounds in 48% of the owls examined. Brodifacoum, an extremely toxic second-generation AR, was the most common compound detected (89% of positive cases), followed by bromadiolone (11%), difethialone (11%), and warfarin (5%). Brodifacoum was also detected in one barred owl and one spotted owl opportunistically found dead (liver concentrations were 0.091 and 0.049 µg/g, respectively). We found no evidence that exposure varied with proximity to developed and agricultural areas, or among different study areas, age-classes, and sexes. Rather, exposure was ubiquitous, and the rates we observed in our study (38 – 64%) were similar to or greater than that reported previously for barred owls in California (40%). Together these studies indicate widespread contamination in forested landscapes used by spotted owls and other wildlife of conservation concern. Owls collected in older forests may have been exposed via illegal use of ARs, highlighting a mounting challenge for land managers and policy makers.

California

Groundwater availability of the Central Valley Aquifer, California

California's Central Valley covers about 20,000 square miles and is one of the most productive agricultural regions in the world. More than 250 different crops are grown in the Central Valley with an estimated value of $17 billion per year. This irrigated agriculture relies heavily on surface-water diversions and groundwater pumpage. Approximately one-sixth of the Nation's irrigated land is in the Central Valley, and about one-fifth of the Nation's groundwater demand is supplied from its aquifers. The Central Valley also is rapidly becoming an important area for California's expanding urban population. Since 1980, the population of the Central Valley has nearly doubled from 2 million to 3.8 million people. The Census Bureau projects that the Central Valley's population will increase to 6 million people by 2020. This surge in population has increased the competition for water resources within the Central Valley and statewide, which likely will be exacerbated by anticipated reductions in deliveries of Colorado River water to southern California. In response to this competition for water, a number of water-related issues have gained prominence: conservation of agricultural land, conjunctive use, artificial recharge, hydrologic implications of land-use change, and effects of climate variability. To provide information to stakeholders addressing these issues, the USGS Groundwater Resources Program made a detailed assessment of groundwater availability of the Central Valley aquifer system, that includes: (1) the present status of groundwater resources; (2) how these resources have changed over time; and (3) tools to assess system responses to stresses from future human uses and climate variability and change. This effort builds on previous investigations, such as the USGS Central Valley Regional Aquifer System and Analysis (CV-RASA) project and several other groundwater studies in the Valley completed by Federal, State and local agencies at differing scales. The principal product of this new assessment is a tool referred to as the Central Valley Hydrologic Model (CVHM) that accounts for integrated, variable water supply and demand, and simulates surface-water and groundwater-flow across the entire Central Valley system. The development of the CVHM comprised four major elements: (1) a comprehensive Geographic Information System (GIS) to compile, analyze and visualize data; (2) a texture model to characterize the aquifer system;(3) estimates of water-budget components by numerically modeling the hydrologic system with the Farm Process (FMP); and (4) simulations to assess and quantify hydrologic conditions.

Professional Paper

Hydrologic and biogeochemical controls of river subsurface solutes under agriculturally enhanced ground water flow

The relative influences of hydrologic processes and biogeochemistry on the transport and retention of minor solutes were compared in the riverbed of the lower Merced River (California, USA). The subsurface of this reach receives ground water discharge and surface water infiltration due to an altered hydraulic setting resulting from agricultural irrigation. Filtered ground water samples were collected from 30 drive point locations in March, June, and October 2004. Hydrologic processes, described previously, were verified by observations of bromine concentrations; manganese was used to indicate redox conditions. The separate responses of the minor solutes strontium, barium, uranium, and phosphorus to these influences were examined. Correlation and principal component analyses indicate that hydrologic processes dominate the distribution of trace elements in the ground water. Redox conditions appear to be independent of hydrologic processes and account for most of the remaining data variability. With some variability, major processes are consistent in two sampling transects separated by 100 m.

Journal of Environmental Quality

Appendix B—Active ground‐water projects in California, Oregon, and Washington

General Pumping from wells for irrigation —The Division of Irrigation, Bureau of Agricultural Engineering, United States Department of Agriculture, is investigating the economics and practice of pumping from wells for irrigation in the western United States. The study is under the charge of Carl Rohwer. Its aims are (1) to gather data pertinent to the practical and economical phases of pumping for irrigation, including mechanical units, wells, methods of pump‐installation, the assembled plant, and the efficiency of the various units, and (2) to compile all available information on methods and cost of well‐drilling and the numerous factors influencing them, such as various types of casing and relation of diameter of casing to yield. The field‐work on both phases of the study is about complete. The manuscript on the first phase of the project is in process of preliminary editing. It is intended to publish the results of the study in two bulletins, probably as Department circulars.

California, Oregon, Washington

Water availability and land subsidence in the Central Valley, California, USA

The Central Valley in California (USA) covers about 52,000 km 2 and is one of the most productive agricultural regions in the world. This agriculture relies heavily on surface-water diversions and groundwater pumpage to meet irrigation water demand. Because the valley is semi-arid and surface-water availability varies substantially, agriculture relies heavily on local groundwater. In the southern two thirds of the valley, the San Joaquin Valley, historic and recent groundwater pumpage has caused significant and extensive drawdowns, aquifer-system compaction and subsidence. During recent drought periods (2007–2009 and 2012-present), groundwater pumping has increased owing to a combination of decreased surface-water availability and land-use changes. Declining groundwater levels, approaching or surpassing historical low levels, have caused accelerated and renewed compaction and subsidence that likely is mostly permanent. The subsidence has caused operational, maintenance, and construction-design problems for water-delivery and flood-control canals in the San Joaquin Valley. Planning for the effects of continued subsidence in the area is important for water agencies. As land use, managed aquifer recharge, and surface-water availability continue to vary, long-term groundwater-level and subsidence monitoring and modelling are critical to understanding the dynamics of historical and continued groundwater use resulting in additional water-level and groundwater storage declines, and associated subsidence. Modeling tools such as the Central Valley Hydrologic Model, can be used in the evaluation of management strategies to mitigate adverse impacts due to subsidence while also optimizing water availability. This knowledge will be critical for successful implementation of recent legislation aimed toward sustainable groundwater use.

California

Ground-water quality and geochemistry in Carson and Eagle Valleys, western Nevada and eastern California

Aquifers in Carson and Eagle Valleys are an important source of water for human consumption and agriculture. Concentrations of major constituents in water from the principal aquifers on the west sides of Carson and Eagle Valleys appear to be a result of natural geochemical reactions with minerals derived primarily from plutonic rocks. In general, water from principal aquifers is acceptable for drinking when compared with current (1993) Nevada State drinking-water maximum contaminant level standards. Water was collected and analyzed for all inorganic constituents for which primary or secondary drinking-water standards have been established. About 3 percent of these sites had con- stituents that exceeded one or more primary or secondary drinking-water standards have been established. About 3 percent of these sites had con- stituents that exceeded one or more primary standards and water at about 10 percent of the sites had at least one constituent that surpassed a secondary standard. Arsenic exceeded the standard in water at less than 1 percent of the principal aquifer sites; nitrate surpassed its standard in water at 3 percent of 93 sites. Water from wells in the principal aquifer with high concentrations of nitrate was in areas where septic systems are used; these concentrations indicate that contamination may be entering the wells. Concentrations of naturally occurring radionuclides in water from the principal aquifers, exceed the proposed Federal standards for some constituents, but were not found t be above current (1993) State standards. The uranium concen- trations exceeded the proposed 20 micrograms per liter Federal standard at 10 percent of the sites. Of the sites analyzed for all of the inorganic constituents with primary standards plus uranium, 15 percent exceed one or more established standards. If the proposed 20 micrograms per liter standard for uranium is applied to the sampled sites, then 23 percent would exceed the standard for uranium or some other constituent with a primary drinking water standard. This represents a 50-percent increase in the frequency of exceedance. Almost all water sampled from the principal aquifers exceeds the 300 picocuries per liter proposed standard for radon. Ground-water sampling sites with the highest radon activities in water are most commonly located in the upland aquifers in the Sierra Nevada and in the principal aquifers beneath the west sides of Carson and Eagle Valleys.

Open-File Report

Organochlorine pesticide, polychlorinated biphenyl, trace element and metal residues in bird eggs from Salton Sea, California, 2004

The Salton Sea is a highly eutrophic, hypersaline terminal lake that receives inflows primarily from agricultural drainages in the Imperial and Coachella valleys. Impending reductions in water inflow at Salton Sea may concentrate existing contaminants which have been a concern for many years, and result in higher exposure to birds. Thus, waterbird eggs were collected and analyzed in 2004 and compared with residue concentrations from earlier years; these data provide a base for future comparisons. Eggs from four waterbird species (black-crowned night-heron [Nycticorax nycticorax], great egret [Ardea alba], black-necked stilt [Himantopus mexicanus], and American avocet [Recurvirostra Americana]) were collected. Eggs were analyzed for organochlorine pesticides, polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), metals, and trace elements, with current results compared to those reported for eggs collected from the same species and others during 1985a??1993. The two contaminants of primary concern were p,pa??-DDE (DDE) and selenium. DDE concentrations in night-heron and great egret eggs collected from the northwest corner of Salton Sea (Whitewater River delta) decreased 91 and 95%, respectively, by 2004, with a concomitant increase in eggshell thickness for both species. Decreases in bird egg DDE levels paralleled those in tissues of tilapia (Oreochromis mossambicus ?? O. urolepis), an important prey species for herons and egrets. Despite most nests of night-herons and great egrets failing in 2004 due to predation, predicted reproductive effects based on DDE concentrations in eggs were low or negligible for these species. The 2004 DDE findings were in dramatic contrast to those in the past decade, and included an 81% decrease in black-necked stilt eggs, although concentrations were lower historically than those reported in night-herons and egrets. Selenium concentrations in black-necked stilt eggs from the southeast corner of Salton Sea (Davis Road) were similar in 1993 and 2004, with 4.5a??7.6% of the clutches estimated to be selenium impaired during both time periods. Because of present selenium concentrations and future reduced water inflow, the stilt population is of special concern. Between 1992 and 1993 and 2004 selenium in night-heron and great egret eggs from the Whitewater River delta at the north end of the Sea decreased by 81 and 55%, respectively. None of the night-heron or egret eggs collected in 2004 contained selenium concentrations above the lowest reported effect concentration (6.0 I?g/g dw). Reasons for selenium decreases in night-heron and egret eggs are unknown. Other contaminants evaluated in 2004 were all below known effect concentrations. However, in spite of generally low contaminant levels in 2004, the nesting populations of night-herons and great egrets at Salton Sea were greatly reduced from earlier years and snowy egrets (Egretta thula) were not found nesting. Other factors that include predation, reduced water level, diminished roost and nest sites, increased salinity, eutrophication, and reduced fish populations can certainly influence avian populations. Future monitoring, to validate predicted responses by birds, other organisms, and contaminant loadings associated with reduced water inflows, together with adaptive management should be the operational framework at the Salton Sea.

Hydrobiologia

Microbial responses and nitrous oxide emissions during wetting and drying of organically and conventionally managed soil under tomatoes

The types and amounts of carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) inputs, as well as irrigation management are likely to influence gaseous emissions and microbial ecology of agricultural soil. Carbon dioxide (CO2) and nitrous oxide (N2O) efflux, with and without acetylene inhibition, inorganic N, and microbial biomass C were measured after irrigation or simulated rainfall in two agricultural fields under tomatoes (Lycopersicon esculentum). The two fields, located in the California Central Valley, had either a history of high organic matter (OM) inputs ("organic" management) or one of low OM and inorganic fertilizer inputs ("conventional" management). In microcosms, where short-term microbial responses to wetting and drying were studied, the highest CO2 efflux took place at about 60% water-filled pore space (WFPS). At this moisture level, phospholipid fatty acids (PLFA) indicative of microbial nutrient availability were elevated and a PLFA stress indicator was depressed, suggesting peak microbial activity. The highest N 2O efflux in the organically managed soil (0.94 mg N2O-N m-2 h-1) occurred after manure and legume cover crop incorporation, and in the conventionally managed soil (2.12 mg N2O-N m-2 h-1) after inorganic N fertilizer inputs. Elevated N2O emissions occurred at a WFPS >60% and lasted <2 days after wetting, probably because the top layer (0-150 mm) of this silt loam soil dried quickly. Therefore, in these cropping systems, irrigation management might control the duration of elevated N2O efflux, even when C and inorganic N availability are high, whereas inorganic N concentrations should be kept low during times when soil moisture cannot be controlled.

Biology and Fertility of Soils

Salinity trends in a groundwater system supplemented by 50 years of imported Colorado River water

The Indio subbasin of the Coachella Valley is a desert area of southern California where a growing population depends primarily on groundwater for drinking and agricultural uses. The aquifer system has been supplemented with Colorado River water through managed recharge and widespread irrigation since the mid-20th century. We use a combination of geochemical modeling and trend analysis to identify changes in total dissolved solids through time, elucidate the sources of dissolved solids, and quantify the extent of contributions from those sources throughout the Indio subbasin. We conclude that recharged Colorado River water is the primary source and driver of increasing salinity, particularly in areas immediately downgradient from the recharge locations and in the eastern part of the subbasin away from the recharge ponds due to irrigation using imported water. Other contributions of dissolved solids to groundwater resources include geothermal waters, wastewater effluent, and agricultural return flow, although their effects are more localized. This study presents a broadly applicable framework for identifying sources of dissolved solids in groundwater wells and salinity trends at a regional scale in a large data set.

California

Pesticides are involved with population declines of amphibians in the California Sierra Nevadas

Several species of frogs and toads are in serious decline in the Sierra Nevada Mountains of California. These species include the threatened red-legged frog ( Rana aurora ), foothill yellow-legged frog ( R. boylii ), mountain yellow-legged frog ( R. muscosa ), Cascades frog ( Rana cascadae ), western toad ( Bufo boreas ) and Yosemite toad ( B. canorus ). For many of these species current distributions are down to 10% of historical ranges. Several factors including introduced predators, habitat loss, and ultraviolet radiation have been suggested as causes of these declines. Another probable cause is air-borne pesticides from the Central Valley of California. The Central Valley, especially the San Joaquin Valley, is a major agricultural region where millions of pounds of active ingredient pesticides are applied each year (http://www.cdpr.ca.gov/dprdatabase.htm). Prevailing westerly winds from the Pacific Coast transport these pesticides into the into the Sierras.

Scientific World Journal

Ground squirrel shooting and potential lead exposure in breeding avian scavengers

Recreational ground squirrel shooting is a popular activity throughout the western United States and serves as a tool for managing ground squirrel populations in agricultural regions. Belding’s ground squirrels ( Spermophilus beldingi ) are routinely shot in California, Nevada, and Oregon across habitats that overlap with breeding avian scavengers. Ground squirrels shot with lead (Pb)-based bullets may pose a risk to avian scavengers if they consume carcasses containing Pb fragments. To assess the potential risk to breeding avian scavengers we developed a model to estimate the number, mass, and distribution of Pb fragments in shot ground squirrels using radiographic images. Eighty percent of shot carcasses contained detectible Pb fragments with an average of 38.6 mg of Pb fragments. Seven percent of all carcasses contained Pb fragment masses exceeding a lethal dose for a model raptor nestling (e.g. American kestrel Falco sparverius ). Bullet type did not influence the number of fragments in shot ground squirrels, but did influence the mass of fragments retained. Belding’s ground squirrels shot with .17 Super Mag and unknown ammunition types contained over 28 and 17 times more mass of Pb fragments than those shot with .22 solid and .22 hollow point bullets, respectively. Ground squirrel body mass was positively correlated with both the number and mass of Pb fragments in carcasses, increasing on average by 76% and 56% respectively across the range of carcass masses. Although the mass of Pb retained in ground squirrel carcasses was small relative to the original bullet mass, avian scavenger nestlings that frequently consume shot ground squirrels may be at risk for Pb-induced effects (e.g., physiology, growth, or survival). Using modeling efforts we found that if nestling golden eagles ( Aquila chrysaetos ), red-tailed hawks ( Buteo jamaicensis ), and Swainson’s hawks ( B . swainsoni ) consumed shot ground squirrels proportionately to the nestling’s mass, energy needs, and diet, 100% of the nestling period would exceed a 50% reduction in delta-aminolevulinic acid dehydratase production threshold, the last 13–27% of the nestling stage would exceed a reduced growth rate threshold, but no nestlings would be expected to exceed a level of Pb ingestion that would be lethal.

California, Oregon

Using the precipitation-runoff modeling system to predict seasonal water availability in the upper Klamath River basin, Oregon and California

Accurate forecasts of the streamflow expected during late spring and summer in the Upper Klamath River Basin in southern-central Oregon and northern California are used by water management agencies to balance water allocations for agriculture, aquatic habitat, and hydropower-production needs. Streamflow forecasts are also used by irrigation farmers for planning. The forecasts are typically made twice a month starting as early in the water year as December. Multiple regression equations relating real-time snowpack and precipitation conditions to seasonal streamflow volumes have been used for many years in forecasting. However, with warming temperature trends and lower snowpack, such forecasts based on historical data could become less reliable in the future. If the timing and relation of snowpack and precipitation are outside of the range of the historical data used to create the equations, the forecasts become extrapolations. Statistical forecast equations are also limited in their ability to forecast streamflow in groundwater-dominated basins having inter-annual lag. As an additional method for seasonal streamflow forecasting, a physical-process-based hydrologic model employing the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS) was developed in cooperation with the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation for the Upper Klamath Basin in this study. The model was calibrated for the portion of the basin draining into Upper Klamath Lake. PRMS is a deterministic, distributed-parameter, physical-process-based modeling system developed by the U.S. Geological Survey. It simulates daily streamflow, snow, solar radiation, evapotranspiration, surface-water, and groundwater processes within the basin. A model calibration and validation period for water years 2000–15 and water years 1984–99, respectively, was used. The model was calibrated and validated using measured streamflow, snowpack, evapotranspiration, and solar radiation data sets. Interpolated daily precipitation and air temperature data from 32 meteorological stations within and surrounding the Upper Klamath Basin were used as model input. Performance statistics, used to evaluate how well simulated daily streamflow matched with measured streamflow included percent bias, percent relative error, and root-mean-square error. The statistics were computed annually, monthly, for October–March, and for April–September. With the exception of the October–March period, percent bias statistics were all within plus or minus 5-percent for both the calibration and validation periods. Limitations to using the model are error in the precipitation and air temperature input time series data, which include measurement error and error in the spatial interpolation method. Other errors include measured daily streamflow data, which were adjusted for consumptive use losses to make them more closely resemble natural streamflow for calibration. The model developed for the Upper Klamath Basin can be used to forecast streamflow from the Sprague and Williamson River Basins and inflow to Upper Klamath Lake. Reliable forecasts at these locations are needed for managing water for irrigation, ecosystem health, and power production. Using the models in a forecast application requires assembling model input data sets of anticipated daily precipitation and minimum and maximum air temperature for the period after the date the forecast is made and the end of the forecasted period. These climate data sets can be based on historical or synthetic records, at the discretion of the forecaster. With the Ensemble Streamflow Prediction method, a suite of streamflow scenarios is simulated using multiple years of climate data as model input. The forecasted streamflow is determined from knowing the exceedance probabilities of the simulated streamflows. In this study, the model and the Ensemble Streamflow Prediction method were used to forecast the volume of inflow to Upper Klamath Lake for a 6-month period from April 1, 2015, to September 30, 2015, using a range of climate data sets based on El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) criteria. Because 2015 was a warm phase ENSO period, climate data for 10 warm phase ENSO years from 1980 to 2010 were used as input to the model. The simulated April–September 2015 UKL inflow volume based on measured 2015 climate data was 482,000 acre-feet, which was very close to the 50th percent exceedance probability computed from 10 simulated scenarios that used warm phase ENSO climate input data from 1980–2010.

California, Oregon

Mapping irrigated lands at 250-m scale by merging MODIS data and National Agricultural Statistics

Accurate geospatial information on the extent of irrigated land improves our understanding of agricultural water use, local land surface processes, conservation or depletion of water resources, and components of the hydrologic budget. We have developed a method in a geospatial modeling framework that assimilates irrigation statistics with remotely sensed parameters describing vegetation growth conditions in areas with agricultural land cover to spatially identify irrigated lands at 250-m cell size across the conterminous United States for 2002. The geospatial model result, known as the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) Irrigated Agriculture Dataset (MIrAD-US), identified irrigated lands with reasonable accuracy in California and semiarid Great Plains states with overall accuracies of 92% and 75% and kappa statistics of 0.75 and 0.51, respectively. A quantitative accuracy assessment of MIrAD-US for the eastern region has not yet been conducted, and qualitative assessment shows that model improvements are needed for the humid eastern regions where the distinction in annual peak NDVI between irrigated and non-irrigated crops is minimal and county sizes are relatively small. This modeling approach enables consistent mapping of irrigated lands based upon USDA irrigation statistics and should lead to better understanding of spatial trends in irrigated lands across the conterminous United States. An improved version of the model with revised datasets is planned and will employ 2007 USDA irrigation statistics.

Remote Sensing

Active season microhabitat and vegetation selection by giant gartersnakes associated with a restored marsh in California

Studies of habitat selection can reveal important patterns to guide habitat restoration and management for species of conservation concern. Giant gartersnakes Thamnophis gigas are endemic to the Central Valley of California, where >90% of their historical wetland habitat has been converted to agricultural and other uses. Information about the selection of habitats by individual giant gartersnakes would guide habitat restoration by indicating which habitat features and vegetation types are likely to be selected by these rare snakes. We examined activity patterns and selection of microhabitats and vegetation types by adult female giant gartersnakes with radiotelemetry at a site composed of rice agriculture and restored wetlands using a paired case-control study design. Adult female giant gartersnakes were 14.7 (95% credible interval [CRI] = 9.4–23.7) times more likely to be active (foraging, mating, or moving) when located in aquatic habitats than when located in terrestrial habitats. Microhabitats associated with cover—particularly emergent vegetation, terrestrial vegetation, and litter—were positively selected by giant gartersnakes. Individual giant gartersnakes varied greatly in their selection of rice and rock habitats, but varied little in their selection of open water. Tules Schoenoplectus acutus were the most strongly selected vegetation type, and duckweed Lemna spp., water-primrose Ludwigia spp., forbs, and grasses also were positively selected at the levels of availability observed at our study site. Management practices that promote the interface of water with emergent aquatic and herbaceous terrestrial vegetation will likely benefit giant gartersnakes. Given their strong selection of tules, restoration of native tule marshes will likely provide the greatest benefit to these threatened aquatic snakes.

California

Arsenic, chromium, uranium, and vanadium in rock, alluvium, and groundwater, Mojave River and Morongo Areas, western Mojave Desert, southern California

Trace elements within groundwater that originate from aquifer materials and pose potential public-health hazards if consumed are known as geogenic contaminants. The geogenic contaminants arsenic, chromium, and vanadium can form negatively charged ions with oxygen known as oxyanions. Uranium complexes with bicarbonate and carbonate to form negatively charged ions having aqueous chemistry similar to oxyanions. The concentrations of arsenic, chromium, uranium, and vanadium in groundwater result from the combined effects of (1) geologic abundance within aquifer materials; (2) the fraction of these elements that have weathered from and sorbed to the surfaces of mineral grains and are potentially available to groundwater; and (3) the aqueous chemistry of dissolved oxyanions in groundwater during different redox conditions and pH, both of which are affected by hydrogeology, including the length of time groundwater has been in contact with aquifer materials. Concentrations of arsenic, chromium, uranium, and vanadium were measured in samples of (1) rock, surficial alluvium, and drill cuttings using portable (handheld) X-ray fluorescence (pXRF); (2) operationally defined fractions extractable from these materials; and (3) water from wells sampled between 2000 and 2018 within the 3,500 square mile Mojave River area and Morongo area of the western Mojave Desert, southern California. Regionally, rock and surficial alluvium in the Mojave River and Morongo areas are high in arsenic, low in chromium and uranium, and near the average bulk continental crust concentration for vanadium. Locally, high chromium concentrations are present in mafic rock within the San Gabriel Mountains; high uranium concentrations are present in felsic rock within the San Bernardino Mountains; and high arsenic, uranium, and vanadium concentrations are present in extrusive (volcanic) felsic rock within uplands surrounding groundwater basins along the Mojave River downstream from Barstow, California. Elemental assemblages identified using principal component analyses (PCA) of pXRF data were used to characterize felsic, mafic, and felsic volcanic source terranes in rock, surficial alluvium, and in geologic material penetrated by selected monitoring wells drilled between 1994 and 2018. Highly felsic alluvium associated with recent deposition from the Mojave River was identified along the 90-mile length of the floodplain aquifer along the river. The thickness of these highly felsic alluvial deposits ranged from 200 feet (ft) near Victorville and near Barstow to a thin veneer about 30 ft thick downstream from Victorville and downstream portions of the floodplain aquifer within the Mojave Valley. Groundwater in the Mojave River and Morongo areas was generally oxic and alkaline (pH≥7.5). Maximum concentrations of arsenic, hexavalent chromium [Cr(VI)], uranium, and vanadium in water from as many as 498 wells sampled between 2000 and 2018 were 360, 140, 1,470, and 690 micrograms per liter (μg/L), respectively. Water from 22 percent of sampled wells exceeded the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) maximum contaminant level (MCL) for arsenic of 10 μg/L, with arsenic concentrations commonly exceeding the MCL in water from wells east of Barstow, deep wells in the Victorville fan, and in suboxic or reduced groundwater within the floodplain aquifer. Water from about 1 percent of sampled wells had Cr(VI) concentrations greater than the California MCL for total chromium of 50 μg/L, whereas 13 percent of sampled wells had Cr(VI) concentrations greater than the former California MCL of 10 μg/L. Hexavalent chromium concentrations were highest in water from wells in the Sheep Creek alluvial fan, eroded from mafic rock in the San Gabriel Mountains, although Cr(VI) concentrations greater than the former California MCL also were present elsewhere in the study area where mafic materials or older groundwater were present. Water from about 9 percent of sampled wells exceeded the EPA MCL for uranium of 30 μg/L, with concentrations exceeding the MCL commonly associated with irrigation return from agricultural land overlying the floodplain aquifer. Water from about 7 percent of sampled wells had vanadium concentrations greater than the California notification level of 50 μg/L; most of these wells were in the Victorville fan within the Mojave River area. In general, arsenic concentrations were higher in suboxic or reduced water; chromium concentrations were higher in oxic, alkaline (pH≥7.5) water; uranium concentrations were higher in circumneutral to slightly alkaline water (pH≤7.4); and vanadium concentrations were higher in highly alkaline (pH≥8.0) water, independent of redox status. Concentrations within geologic source terranes are not the sole factor controlling the concentrations of geogenic elements in groundwater. Differences in mineral weathering, pH-dependent sorption to surface-exchange sites on mineral grains, and aqueous geochemistry (especially redox status and pH) affect geogenic element concentrations in groundwater. Consequently, the relative abundances of arsenic, Cr(VI), uranium, and vanadium in groundwater differ from their relative abundances in the average bulk continental crust and their regional abundances in rock and surficial alluvium within groundwater basins of the western Mojave Desert. Processes that control the concentrations of arsenic, chromium, uranium, and vanadium in groundwater operate at the mineral-grain and aquifer scale. At the mineral-grain scale, sequential chemical extraction data show arsenic and uranium are more available to groundwater (under specific geochemical conditions) than chromium or vanadium, which largely are unavailable within unweathered mineral grains. Additionally, chromium and vanadium form few aqueous complexes and bind tightly with iron minerals within surface coatings on mineral grains making them less available to groundwater, whereas complexation with other dissolved ions enhances the solubility of uranium and, to a lesser extent, arsenic. Complexation also increases the valence (less negative charge) and increases the size of dissolved oxyanions and uranium complexes with bicarbonate and carbonate making them less readily sorbed to aquifer materials. At the aquifer scale, hydrogeology (including isolation of water in aquifers from surface sources of recharge, older groundwater age, and long contact times between groundwater and aquifer materials) combined with geochemical processes (such as silicate weathering) to produce alkaline groundwater. Desorption from sorption sites on the surfaces of mineral grains with increasing pH increases arsenic, chromium, and vanadium concentrations in water from wells and increases Cr(VI) concentrations as long as water remains oxic. Aqueous geochemistry and concentrations of geogenic contaminants also are affected by anthropogenic activities including (1) discharge of treated municipal wastewater, which may change the redox status of groundwater; (2) return from irrigated agriculture, which may alter the chemistry of groundwater and increase the solubility of trace elements such as uranium; and (3) groundwater pumping and subsequent water-level declines, which may change the source of water yielded by wells. The quality of water imported from northern California and infiltrated from ponds for groundwater recharge may be altered by naturally present trace elements, especially uranium in areas of agricultural land use or chromium within mafic alluvium.

California

Decadal trends in the quality of groundwater used for public drinking-water supply in California, 2004–2023, California groundwater ambient monitoring and assessment program, priority basin project

This study provides a comprehensive assessment of decadal changes in the quality of groundwater used for public drinking-water supply at 444 monitoring sites across California during 2004–2023. We assessed decadal step trends in groundwater quality for 145 water-quality constituents and geochemical indicators statewide and across geographic and land-use based network groups. We evaluated the statistical significance of directional changes (predominant increase or decrease of constituent concentrations) and the magnitude of those changes across all network groups. Uranium showed the most widespread directional and high-magnitude increases of all constituents with regulatory benchmarks statewide, particularly in the agriculture-dominated Central Valley as well as urban- and desert-dominated regions of Southern California. Fluoride and perchlorate showed the most widespread directional and high-magnitude decreases of all constituents with regulatory benchmarks statewide, which were also most pronounced in Southern California. Although arsenic and nitrate did not often register significant directional changes across network groups, they showed widespread, high-magnitude changes in both directions (increase and decrease) at levels often exceeding 10 percent of respective regulatory benchmarks statewide. Triazine herbicides (atrazine and simazine) and the gasoline oxygenate methyl tert-butyl ether (MTBE) showed significant directional decreases statewide, but not at levels considered to be of high magnitude compared to respective regulatory benchmarks. We observed significant directional and high-magnitude increases of total dissolved solids (TDS) statewide, which were most pronounced in agricultural areas. Analysis of explanatory geochemical indicators indicated that prevalent statewide increases of alkalinity and calcium were the predominant components of the observed statewide increases in TDS by mass. Widespread increases in groundwater alkalinity and calcium across agricultural and urban areas may be related, in part, to warm-season irrigation and other anthropogenic factors that have shifted soil weathering dynamics over the long term. Increasing alkalinity concentrations were related to increasing uranium concentrations, particularly in areas with aquifer materials derived from granitic rocks. Conversely, increasing calcium concentrations were related to decreasing fluoride concentrations, particularly in areas where fluoride occurred naturally at elevated concentrations. Decrease of perchlorate, triazine herbicides, and MTBE are likely related to decreased anthropogenic source inputs over time and natural attenuation in aquifers.

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