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At least 235 records · Page 13Linked to original sources
USGS2022

Infrasound observations and constraints on the 2018 eruption of Kīlauea Volcano, Hawaii

The 2018 eruption of Kīlauea Volcano was a dynamic event involving explosions, collapses, and fountaining at multiple vents spread over tens of kilometers. The permanent infrasound network operated by the USGS Hawaiian Volcano Observatory (HVO) was well prepared to observe the collapse of the summit, and additional deployments permitted infrasound observations during fissuring in the lower East Rift Zone (LERZ). We provide a summary of infrasound observations, including lava lake spattering, collapses, explosions, rockfall, and lava fountaining, using seismicity and tilt at times to help constrain our interpretations. At the summit of Kīlauea Volcano, we document the process of partial caldera collapse and examine a set of “proto-collapse” events that precede the widely observed events but share many of the same qualities as the larger collapses. For the initial twelve collapse events, we compare the timing of collapse onset to other observations and illustrate the repeatable characteristics of the recorded waveforms and infrasound characteristics associated with each episode of caldera collapse. In the LERZ, we match the acoustic signals with visual observations, including fissure migration, explosions near fissures, and littoral explosions. Lastly, we document and discuss the performance of infrasound alarms during the 2018 Kīlauea eruption. In general, alarming became successful in detecting collapse events at the summit of the volcano after tuning and became a key discriminant in the initial determination of collapse events, especially when visual observations were not available.

Hawaii↗
USGS2022

Incremental caldera collapse at Kīlauea Volcano recorded in ground tilt and high-rate GNSS data, with implications for collapse dynamics and the magma system

Ground deformation during caldera collapse at Kīlauea Volcano in 2018 was recorded in unprecedented detail on a network of real-time GNSS (Global Navigation Satellite System) and tilt instruments. Observations informed hazard assessments during the eruption and now yield insight into collapse dynamics and the magma system. The caldera grew in size over 78 days in a series of repeating, quasi-periodic ∼ "> ∼ ∼ day-long cycles. During abrupt seconds-long collapse events, fault-bounded caldera blocks subsided by meters, while the surrounding edifice moved upwards and outwards by as much as tens of centimeters. Between collapses, stations outside of the caldera moved inwards and downwards at decreasing rates, largely reversing co-collapse deformations. In total, the caldera subsided >500 m at its deepest point while the surrounding edifice subsided mostly less than 2 m chiefly in a region south of the new caldera. Ground deformation reflects magma withdrawal from the broader summit magma system and faulting processes related to collapse. Deformation cycles were caused by step-like pressurization of Kīlauea’s subcaldera magma system due to episodic, stick-slip roof rock subsidence, followed by gradual pressure reduction as magma continued to drain from the summit, stressing faults and leading to subsequent collapses. A model of piston-like subsidence implies that larger collapses increased pressure in a compressible subcaldera magma reservoir by several MPa, driving flow to the rift through a relatively wide conduit. Collapses did not fully recover precollapse pressure loss in the reservoir, and excess pressure driving the eruption was very low; the eruption was thus tenuously sustained by collapses. Important open questions remain about the relation between caldera floor subsidence and ground deformation, the role of other magma storage zones, and the interplay of summit and rift processes in controlling the evolution of the eruption.

Hawaii↗
USGS2022

Modelling the transport and deposition of ash following a magnitude 7 eruption: The distal Mazama tephra

Volcanic ash transport and dispersion models (VATDMs) are necessary for forecasting tephra dispersal during volcanic eruptions and are a useful tool for estimating the eruption source parameters (ESPs) of prehistoric eruptions. Here we use Ash3D, an Eulerian VATDM, to simulate the tephra deposition from the ~ 7.7 ka climactic eruption of Mount Mazama. We investigate how best to apply a VATDM using the ESPs characteristic of a large magnitude eruption (M ≥ 7). We simplify the approach to focus on the distal deposit as if it were formed by a single phase of Plinian activity. Our results demonstrate that it is possible to use modern wind profiles to simulate the tephra dispersal from a prehistoric eruption; however, this introduces an inherent uncertainty to the subsequent simulations where we explore different ESPs. We show, using the well-documented distal Mazama tephra, that lateral umbrella cloud spreading, rather than advection–diffusion alone, must be included in the VATDM to reproduce the width of the isopachs. In addition, the Ash3D particle size distribution must be modified to simulate the transport and deposition of distal fine-grained (< 125 µm) Mazama ash. With these modifications, the Ash3D simulations reproduce the thickness and grain size of the Mazama tephra deposit. Based on our simulations, however, we conclude that the exact relationship between mass eruption rate and the scale of umbrella cloud spreading remains unresolved. Furthermore, for ground-based grain size distributions to be input directly into Ash3D, further research is required into the atmospheric and particle processes that control the settling behaviour of fine volcanic ash.

Bulletin of Volcanology↗
USGS2022

Eruptive history of Mason Spur, a Miocene—Pleistocene polygenetic volcanic complex in southern Victoria Land, West Antarctic Rift System, Antarctica

Mason Spur is a deeply eroded Middle Miocene to Pleistocene (c. 13 to 0.37 Ma) volcanic complex in southern Victoria Land, within the West Antarctic Rift System (WARS). The oldest rocks include a large volume of trachyte ignimbrites that provided abundant volcanic detritus recovered in McMurdo Sound drill cores. The ignimbrites together with early-formed intrusions were strongly deformed during a substantial caldera collapse at c. 13 Ma. Intense erosion modified the volcanic landscape, creating a paleo-relief of several hundred metres. Deep ravines were cut and filled by deposits of multiple lahars probably linked to gravitational collapses of trachyte dome(s). Small-volume trachytic magmas were also erupted, forming lavas and at least one tuff cone. The youngest trachytic activity comprises a lava dome and related block-and-ash-flow deposits, erupted at 6 Ma. Basanite erupted throughout the history of the complex and eruptions younger than 12 Ma are almost exclusively basanite, forming scoria cones, water-cooled lavas, and tuff cones. Three peripheral outcrops are composed of basanitic ‘a‘ā lava-fed deltas, probably erupted from vents on neighbouring volcanoes at Mount Discovery and Mount Morning. Abundant ignimbrite deposits at Mason Spur differentiate this volcanic complex from others in the WARS. Eruptions were triggered by rift extension initially, yielding the voluminous trachytes sourced from a magma chamber on the margin of the WARS. Later mafic eruptions were associated with deep crustal faults related to residual intraplate deformation. These results add important details to the eruptive history of the intracontinental WARS.

Bulletin of Volcanology↗
USGS2022

Conduit processes in crystal-rich dacitic magma and implications for eruptive cycles at Guagua Pichincha volcano, Ecuador

Stratovolcanoes are commonly characterised by cyclic eruptive activity marked by transitions between dome-forming, Vulcanian, Subplinian and Plinian eruptions. Guagua Pichincha volcano (Ecuador) has been a location of such cyclicity for the past ~ 2000 years, with Plinian eruptions in the first and tenth centuries AD (Anno Domini/after Christ), and CE (Common Era) 1660, which were separated by dome-forming to Subplinian eruptions, such as the recent 1999–2001 eruption. These cycles are therefore a prominent example of effusive-explosive transitions at varying timescales. Here, we investigate the reasons for such shifts in activity by focusing on degassing and outgassing processes within the conduit. We have coupled a petrophysical and textural analysis of dacites from the CE 1660 Plinian eruption and the 1999–2001 dome-forming/Vulcanian eruption, with different percolation models in order to better understand the role of degassing on eruptive style. We demonstrate that the transition from dome-forming to Plinian activity is correlated with differences in phenocryst content and consequently in bulk viscosity. A lower initial phenocryst content and viscosity is inferred for the Plinian case, which promotes faster ascent, closed-system degassing, fragmentation and explosive activity. In contrast, dome-forming phases are promoted by a higher magma viscosity due to higher phenocryst content, with slower ascent enhancing gas escape and microlite crystallization, decreasing explosivity and yielding effusive activity.

Guagua Pichincha volcano↗
USGS2022

Understanding and modeling tephra transport: Lessons learned from the 18 May 1980 eruption of Mount St. Helens

Discoveries made during the 18 May 1980 eruption of Mount St. Helens advanced our understanding of tephra transport and deposition in fundamental ways. The eruption enabled detailed, quantitative observations of downwind cloud movement and particle sedimentation, along with the dynamics of co-pyroclastic-density current (PDC) clouds lofted from ground-hugging currents. The deposit was mapped and sampled over more than 150,000 km 2 within days of the event and remains among the most thoroughly documented tephra deposits in the world. Abundant observations were made possible by the large size of the eruption, its occurrence in good weather during daylight hours, cloud movement over a large, populated continent, and the availability of images from recently deployed satellites. These observations underpinned new, quantitative models for the rise and growth of volcanic plumes, the importance of umbrella clouds in dispersing ash, and the roles of particle aggregation and gravitational instabilities in removing ash from the atmosphere. Exceptional detail in the eruption chronology and deposit characterization helped identify the eruptive phases contributing to deposition in different sectors of the distal deposit. The eruption was the first to significantly impact civil aviation, leading to the earliest documented case of in-flight engine damage. Continued eruptive activity in 1980 also motivated pioneering use of meteorological models to forecast ash-cloud movement. In this paper, we consider the most important discoveries and how they changed the science of tephra transport.

Washington↗
USGS2022

Magma storage and transport timescales for the 1959 Kīlauea Iki eruption and implications for diffusion chronometry studies using time-series samples versus tephra deposits

Complex crystal cargo in basaltic eruptions has the potential to yield diverse insights on pre- and syn-eruptive timescales of magma storage and transport. Research on eruption products from the 1959 eruption from Kīlauea Iki Crater at Kīlauea volcano (Hawai‘i) demonstrates that time-series samples collected during an eruption can yield a wealth of information not accessible by studying the fall deposit alone. Major element zoning in olivine crystals illustrates four environments of magma storage that were variably mixed and progressively involved in the eruption. Diffusion timescales retrieved from crystals < 1 mm in size are typically much shorter than those from crystals > 1 mm, illustrating the additional complexity of information recorded by different grain sizes and olivine populations. The timescales can be divided into two groups: (1) t > 100 days reflect longer-term magma recharge into Kīlauea’s deep (8–10 km) reservoir system and (2) t < 100 days broadly correspond to a period of unrest and inflation beginning ~ 3 months prior to eruption. Some timescales reflect syn-eruptive processes, where diffusion began after the eruption onset. Progressive changes in zoning populations in the time-series scoriae samples illustrate how quickly diffusive re-equilibration can erase older magmatic histories and information and underscores that studies on fall deposits can lead to an incomplete record of magmatic processes. Thus, diffusion timescales from fall deposits alone should be cautiously interpreted with the caveat that they may be missing a substantial part of the total eruptive event and, therefore, the record of magmatic histories inferred from crystal cargo.

Hawaii↗
USGS2023

Decompression and degassing, repressurization, and regassing during cyclic eruptions at Guagua Pichincha volcano, Ecuador, 1999–2001

In 1999–2001, Guagua Pichincha volcano, Ecuador, produced a series of cyclic explosive and effusive eruptions. Rock samples, including dense blocks and pumiceous clasts collected during the eruption sequence, and ballistic bombs later collected from the crater floor, provide information about magma storage, ascent, decompression, degassing, repressurization, and regassing prior to eruption. Pairs of Fe-Ti oxides indicate equilibrium within 1.2–1.5 log units above the NNO oxidation buffer and equilibrium temperatures from 805 to 905 °C. Melt inclusions record H 2 O contents of 2.7–4.6 wt% and CO 2 contents (uncorrected for CO 2 segregation into bubbles) from 19 to 310 ppm. Minimum melt inclusion saturation pressures fall between 69 and 168 MPa, or equilibration depths of 2.8 and 6.8 km, the lower end of which is coincident with the maximum inferred equilibration depths for the most vesicular breadcrust bombs sampled. Amphibole phenocrysts lack breakdown rims (except for one sample) and plagioclase phenocrysts have abundant oscillatory compositional zones. Plagioclase areal microlite number densities ( N a ) range over less than one order of magnitude (8.9×10 3 –8.7×10 4 mm -2 ) among all samples, with the exception of a dense, low crystallinity sample ( N a = 3.0×10 3 mm −2 ) and a pumiceous sample erupted on 17 December 1999 ( N a = 1.7×10 3 mm −2 ). Plagioclase microlite shapes include tabular, hopper, and swallowtail forms. Taken together, the relatively high plagioclase microlite number densities, the high number of oscillatory zones in plagioclase phenocrysts, the presence of CO 2 in groundmass glass, seismicity, and time-varying tilt cycles provide a picture of sudden evacuation of magma residing at different levels in the shallow conduit. Explosive eruptions punctuate inter-eruptive repose periods marked by time-varying rates of degassing (volatile fluxing) and re-pressurization. Shallow residence time in the conduit was sufficient to allow precipitation of silica-phase in the groundmass, but insufficient to allow breakdown of hornblende phenocrysts, with the one exception of the final dome sample from 2000, which has the longest preceding repose time. These results support a model of cyclic pressure cycling, volatile exsolution and regassing, and magma decompression decoupled from ascent.

Guagua Pichincha Volcano↗
USGS2023

Years of magma intrusion primed Kīlauea Volcano (Hawai'i) for the 2018 eruption: Evidence from olivine diffusion chronometry and monitoring data

The mechanisms that led to the exceptionally large Kīlauea 2018 eruption are still poorly understood and actively debated. External processes such as rainfall events or flank sliding have been proposed to play a triggering role. Here, we present field, geophysical, and petrological observations to show that internal changes within the magmatic plumbing system most likely led to the eruption. Chemical zoning in olivine crystals records the intrusion of primitive magma that is concurrent with deep seismicity and inflation at the volcano’s summit. Magma replenishment and pressurization of the summit reservoirs already started around 2014 and accelerated towards the eruption. Kīlauea volcano was therefore primed to experience a shift in eruptive activity in 2018. This pressure increase associated with reservoir replenishment may have been sufficient to overcome a previously blocked conduit. These findings imply that precursory signs of years of protracted magma intrusion and pressurization of the system may be recognizable in the future, which could lead to improved hazards mitigation.

Hawaii↗
USGS2023

Coordinating science during an eruption: Lessons from the 2020–2021 Kīlauea volcanic eruption

Data collected during well-observed eruptions can lead to dramatic increases in our understanding of volcanic processes. However, the necessary prioritization of public safety and hazard mitigation during a crisis means that scientific opportunities may be sacrificed. Thus, maximizing the scientific gains from eruptions requires improved planning and coordinating science activities among governmental organizations and academia before and during volcanic eruptions. One tool to facilitate this coordination is a Scientific Advisory Committee (SAC). In the USA, the Community Network for Volcanic Eruption Response (CONVERSE) has been developing and testing this concept during workshops and scenario-based activities. The December 2020 eruption of Kīlauea volcano, Hawaii, provided an opportunity to test and refine this model in real-time and in a real-world setting. We present here the working model of a SAC developed during this eruption. Successes of the Kīlauea SAC (K-SAC) included broadening the pool of scientists involved in eruption response and developing and codifying procedures that may form the basis of operation for future SACs. Challenges encountered by the K-SAC included a process of review and facilitation of research proposals that was too slow to include outside participation in the early parts of the eruption and a decision process that fell on a small number of individuals at the responding volcano observatory. Possible ways to address these challenges include (1) supporting community-building activities between eruptions that make connections among scientists within and outside formal observatories, (2) identifying key science questions and pre-planning science activities, which would facilitate more rapid implementation across a broader scientific group, and (3) continued dialog among observatory scientists, emergency responders, and non-observatory scientists about the role of SACs. The SAC model holds promise to become an integral part of future efforts, leading in the short and longer term to more effective hazard response and greater scientific discovery and understanding.

Hawaii↗
USGS2023

The late Pleistocene Sacarosa tephra-fall deposit, Misti Volcano, Arequipa, Peru: Its magma, eruption, and implications for past and future activity

Between 38.5 ka cal BP and 32.4 ka cal BP, a dacitic Volcanic Explosivity Index 5 eruption at Misti volcano emplaced the Sacarosa tephra-fall deposit. Its biotite phenocrysts, fine grain size, scarce lithics, and abundant loose crystals characterize the deposit at locations sampled. The eruption’s ~ 800 °C magma rose rapidly from ~ 10 km depth, culminating in a Plinian eruption which reached a mass eruption rate of 7.7 × 10 6 –4.1 × 10 7 kg/s and emplaced about 3 km 3 of tephra within tens of hours. The unit comprises two layers of subequal thickness separated by a diffuse contact with the upper distinguished by being slightly coarser and less well sorted than the lower. The deposit’s coarser upper layer indicates either climactic conditions or a lesser degree of fragmentation during the latter half of the eruption. Strong winds distributed the deposit southwest of Misti, where it crops out over at least 800 km 2 and drapes the present site of Arequipa with up to 100 cm of tephra. The Sacarosa deposit is the first among the Cayma stage deposits, a distinctive group of felsic, biotite-bearing units, to be carefully described and its eruption characterized. Several Cayma stage deposits were emplaced by voluminous explosive eruptions similar to the Sacarosa eruption, representing a ~ 8.9–15.5 ky interval of powerful eruptions. Such an explosive eruption today would threaten Arequipa’s over 1,100,000 residents, many of whom live within the Sacarosa deposit’s distribution.

Misti Volcano↗
USGS2023

Lateral edifice collapse and volcanic debris avalanches: A post-1980 Mount St. Helens perspective

The 1980 eruption of Mount St. Helens was instrumental in advancing understanding of how volcanoes work. Lateral edifice collapses and the generation of volcanic debris avalanches were not widely recognized prior to that eruption, making assessment of their hazards and risks challenging. The proliferation of studies since 1980 on resulting deposits and evaluation of processes leading to their generation has built on the insights from the 1980 eruption. Volcano-related destabilizing phenomena, such as strength reduction by hydrothermal alteration, deformation and structural modifications from shallow magma intrusion, and thermal pressurization of pore fluids supplement those factors also affecting nonvolcanic slopes and can lead to larger failures. Remote and ground-based monitoring techniques can aid in detecting potentially destabilizing dynamic processes and in forecasting the size and location of future large lateral collapses, although forecasting remains a topic of investigation. More than a thousand large lateral collapse events likely ≥ 0.01 km 3 in volume have now been identified from deposits or inferred from source area morphology, leading to a recognition of their importance in the evolution of volcanoes and the hazards they pose. Criteria for recognition of debris-avalanche deposits include morphological factors and textural characteristics from outcrop to microscopic scale, allowing discrimination from other volcaniclastic deposits. Lateral edifice failure impacts a broad spectrum of volcanic structures in diverse tectonic settings and can occur multiple times during the evolution of individual volcanoes. Globally, collapses ≥ 0.1 km 3 in volume have been documented 5–6 times per century since 1500 CE, with about one per century having a volume ≥ 1 km 3 . Smaller events < 0.1 km 3 are underrepresented in the earlier record but also have high hazard impact.

Wasgington↗
USGS2023

Development of a volcanic risk management system at Mount St. Helens—1980 to present

Here, we review volcanic risk management at Mount St. Helens from the perspective of the US Geological Survey’s (USGS) experience over the four decades since its 18 May 1980 climactic eruption. Prior to 1980, volcano monitoring, multidisciplinary eruption forecasting, and interagency coordination for eruption response were new to the Cascade Range. A Mount St. Helens volcano hazards assessment had recently been published and volcanic crisis response capabilities tested during 1975 thermal unrest at nearby Mount Baker. Volcanic unrest began in March 1980, accelerating the rate of advance of volcano monitoring, prompting coordinated eruption forecasting and hazards communication, and motivating emergency response planning. The destruction caused by the 18 May 1980 eruption led to an enormous emergency response effort and prompted extensive coordination and planning for continuing eruptive activity. Eruptions continued with pulsatory dome growth and explosive eruptions over the following 6 years and with transport of sediment downstream over many more. In response, USGS scientists and their partners expanded their staffing, deployed new instruments, developed new tools (including the first use of a volcanic event tree) for eruption forecasting, and created new pathways for agency internal and external communication. Involvement in the Mount St. Helens response motivated the establishment of response measures at other Cascade Range volcanoes. Since assembly during the early and mid-1990s, volcano hazard working groups continue to unite scientists, emergency and land managers, tribal nations, and community leaders in common cause for the promotion of risk reduction. By the onset of renewed volcanic activity in 2004, these new systems enabled a more efficient response that was greatly facilitated by the participation of organizations within volcano hazard working groups. Although the magnitude of the 2004 eruptive sequence was much smaller than that of 1980, a new challenge emerged focused on hazard communication demands. Since 2008, our understanding of Mount St. Helens volcanic system has improved, helping us refine hazard assessments and eruption forecasts. Some professions have worked independently to apply the Mount St. Helens story to their products and services. Planning meetings and working group activities fortify partnerships among information disseminators, policy and decision-makers, scientists, and communities. We call the sum of these pieces the Volcanic Risk Management System (VRMS). In its most robust form, the VRMS encompasses effective production and coordinated exchange of volcano hazards and risk information among all interested parties.

Washington↗
USGS2023

Spatio-temporal clustering of post-caldera eruptions at Yellowstone caldera: Implications for volcanic hazards and pre-eruptive magma reservoir configuration

At least 28 rhyolitic lava flows, domes, and tuffs erupted within Yellowstone caldera following its formation 631 ka. Understanding the timing of intracaldera eruptions is essential for characterizing natural hazards posed by Yellowstone volcano. We present 40 Ar/ 39 Ar eruption ages for the Mallard Lake Member and Central Plateau Member of the Plateau Rhyolite, which comprise products from 22 eruptions spanning ~160 to ~70 ka. These eruptions occurred along two linear vent zones within Yellowstone caldera that appear to be extensions of major extracaldera normal faults. Eruptions took place in five brief clusters with group mean ages of 160.3±1.0 ka (2σ), 149.8±4.0 ka, 111.4±0.9 ka, 104.1±0.8 ka, and 70.8±0.7 ka. All mapped products within each informal group have indistinguishable 40 Ar/ 39 Ar eruption ages implying brief eruption durations. Eruption products of each group are spatially clustered, with only one of the two linear vent zones being active during an eruption group. Using the oldest group (160 ka), we apply paleomagnetic and geochemical analyses to investigate the duration of these eruption groups and their pre-eruptive magma reservoir configuration. Paleomagnetic analyses suggest that the nine rhyolite eruptions ~160 ka spanned 400 years or less. Glass and sanidine compositions of each rhyolite are nearly identical, which is consistent with pre-eruptive storage of a large (~130 km 3 ), interconnected melt body within Yellowstone volcano’s crystal-rich magma reservoir. These characteristics differ from intracaldera eruptions that vented near the caldera’s inner ring fracture system, which tend to be compositionally disparate with less temporal clustering. These insights inform hazard mitigation scenarios.

Idaho, Wyoming↗
USGS2023

Dynamics of magma mixing and magma mobilization beneath Mauna Loa – Insights from the 1950 AD Southwest Rift Zone eruption.

Eruptions from Mauna Loa’s Southwest Rift Zone (SWRZ) pose a significant threat to nearby communities due to high eruption rates and steep slopes resulting in little time for evacuation. Despite the large body of research done on Mauna Loa, knowledge of the timing and duration of magma residence and transfer through its internal plumbing system is still poorly constrained. This study presents a first quantitative look at thermochemical conditions and timescales of potentially deep storage and disaggregation of magmatic mush during the run-up to the voluminous 1950 AD SWRZ eruption. Details of heterogeneous compositions and textures of the macrocryst and glomerocryst cargo in 1950 AD lavas suggest magma mixing and crystal recycling along the entire plumbing system. Furthermore, the crystal cargo contains evidence for the direct interaction between primitive, deeply stored magma and pockets of more evolved magma stored at shallow to intermediate depths. An enigmatic attribute of 1950 near-vent lava is the near-ubiquitous presence of subhedral, unreacted Mg-rich orthopyroxene phenocrysts (Mg#>80). Phase relations of Mauna Loa olivine-tholeiite indicate that orthopyroxene joins olivine as a primary phase at pressures higher than 0.6 GPa. Coexisting Mg-rich olivine and orthopyroxene and the occurrence of harzburgitic (olivine-orthopyroxene) glomerocrysts provide evidence for cognate crystallisation at near-Moho (~ 18 km) depths (Thornber and Trusdell 2008 ). Petrogenetically diverse populations of glomerocrysts and macrocrysts alongside evidence of multilevel magma storage indicate a network of ephemeral and possibly interconnected magma pockets from near-Moho depths to the upper/mid-crust. Fe-Mg diffusion chronometry applied to 1950 AD olivine populations implies rapid mobilisation and transport of large volumes of magma (376×10 6 m 3 ) from near-Moho storage to the surface within less than 8 months, with little residence time (~ 2 weeks) in the shallow (3–5 km) plumbing system.

Hawaii↗
USGS2023

Understanding the drivers of volcano deformation through geodetic model verification and validation

Volcano geodesy often involves the use of models to explain observed surface deformation. A variety of forward models are used, from analytical point sources to numerical simulations that consider complex magma system geometries, topography, and material properties. Various inversion methods can then be used to relate observed volcano data to models. Ideally, forward models should be verified through intercomparison, to check for implementation errors and quantify the error induced by any approximations used. Additionally, forward models and inversion methods should be validated through tests with synthetic and/or real data, to determine their ability to match data and estimate parameter values within uncertainty. However, to date, there have not been comprehensive verification and validation efforts in volcano geodesy. Here, we report on the first phase of the Drivers of Volcano Deformation (DVD) exercises, which were designed to build community involvement through web-based exercises involving calculations of static elastic displacement around pressurized magma reservoirs. The forward model exercises begin with a spherical reservoir in a homogeneous half space, then introduce topography, heterogeneous elastic properties, and spheroidal geometries. The inversion exercises provide synthetic noisy surface displacement data for a spherical reservoir in a homogeneous half space and assess consistency in estimates of reservoir location and volume/pressure change. There is variability in the results from both forward modeling and inversions, which highlights the strengths and limitations of different forward models, as well as the importance of inversion method choice and uncertainty quantification. This first phase of the DVD exercises serves as a community resource and will facilitate further efforts to develop standards of reproducibility.

Bulletin of Volcanology↗
USGS2024

Characterising, quantifying, and accessing eruption source parameters of explosive volcanic eruptions for operational simulation of tephra dispersion: A current view and future perspectives

Eruption source parameters (ESPs) are crucial for characterising volcanic eruptions and are essential inputs to numerical models used for hazard assessment. Key ESPs of explosive volcanic eruptions include plume height, mass eruption rate, eruption duration, and grain-size distribution. Some of these ESPs can be directly observed during an eruption, but others are difficult to measure in real-time, or indeed, accurately and precisely quantify afterwards. Estimates of ESPs for eruptions that cannot be observed, for example, due to the remote location of a volcano or poor weather conditions, are often defined using expert judgement and data from past eruptions, both from the volcano of interest and analogue volcanoes farther afield. Analysis of such information is time intensive and difficult, particularly during eruption response. These difficulties have resulted in the production of datasets to aid quick identification of ESPs prior to or during an eruption for use in operational response settings such as those at volcano observatories and Volcanic Ash Advisory Centres. These resources include the Mastin et al. ( 2009a ) ESP dataset and the Catalogue of Icelandic Volcanoes and European Catalogue of Volcanoes aviation tables. Here, we review and compare these resources, which take different approaches to assigning ESPs. We identify future areas for development of these resources, highlighting the need for frequent updates as more knowledge of volcanic activity is gained and as modelling capabilities and requirements change.

Bulletin of Volcanology↗
USGS2024

Olivine diffusion constrains months-scale magma transport within Kīlauea volcano’s summit reservoir system prior to the 2020 eruption

The unprecedented 2018 summit collapse at Kīlauea and subsequent 2020–2021 eruption within the newly deepened Halema‘uma‘u Crater provide an unparalleled opportunity to understand how collapse events impact a volcano’s shallow reservoir system and magmatic processes. Glass and olivine from tephra ejected by lava fountains and several explosions on 20–21 December, within a few hours of the 2020 eruption onset, yield information about pre-eruptive magma storage and transport. The olivine population is bimodal with zoned and non-zoned phenocrysts. Normally zoned olivine crystals with core compositions around Fo 88 have 30–50 μm wide Fo 82 overgrowth rims that have skeletal textures. Two skeletal xenocrysts (cores Fo 74 and Fo 81 ) are also reversely zoned up to Fo 82 rims. The crystal cores have trace element records of at least two cycles of growth and dissolution prior to the formation of the overgrowth rims. These rims and a separate population of non-zoned Fo 82 crystals are in Fe–Mg equilibrium with their host glass (average MgO of 6.9 ± 0.4 wt% (1σ), Mg# [Mg / (Mg + Fe 2+ )] of 0.57), which suggests undercooling after intrusion of magma to shallow levels in the plumbing system. In the years prior to the 2018 collapse, non-zoned Fo 81 olivine and slightly lower MgO glasses (6.8 wt%) reflected continuous mixing and compositional buffering of magma recharge into several km 3 of stored magma in the Halema‘uma‘u reservoir (1–2 km depth). The 2020 olivine crystals lack evidence of an intrusion mixing with resident shallow magma, indicating that magma transport occurred in a disrupted system, and/or it may not have significantly mixed with stored magma remaining in the Halema‘uma‘u reservoir after the events of 2018. Diffusion modeling of Fe–Mg exchange in the zoned 2020 olivine crystals yield timescales that are mostly 60 days prior to the eruption or less, which aligns well with 22–24 October 2020 and subsequent seismic swarms at Nāmakani Paio ~ 5 km west of Kīlauea’s summit caldera. This correlation indicates that magma intruding beneath the summit (volume accommodation, recorded by the olivine crystals) was expressed by tectonic earthquakes along the Ka‘ōiki fault zone (stress accommodation). The absence of precursory SO 2 within minutes prior to eruption also indicates that the 2020 December magma may have risen from 1 to 2 km depth to the surface in as little as 10 min.

Hawaii↗