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At least 235 records · Page 13Linked to original sources
USGS2016

Preface: Impacts of extreme climate events and disturbances on carbon dynamics

The impacts of extreme climate events and disturbances (ECE&D) on the carbon cycle have received growing attention in recent years. This special issue showcases a collection of recent advances in understanding the impacts of ECE&D on carbon cycling. Notable advances include quantifying how harvesting activities impact forest structure, carbon pool dynamics, and recovery processes; observed drastic increases of the concentrations of dissolved organic carbon and dissolved methane in thermokarst lakes in western Siberia during a summer warming event; disentangling the roles of herbivores and fire on forest carbon dioxide flux; direct and indirect impacts of fire on the global carbon balance; and improved atmospheric inversion of regional carbon sources and sinks by incorporating disturbances. Combined, studies herein indicate several major research needs. First, disturbances and extreme events can interact with one another, and it is important to understand their overall impacts and also disentangle their effects on the carbon cycle. Second, current ecosystem models are not skillful enough to correctly simulate the underlying processes and impacts of ECE&D (e.g., tree mortality and carbon consequences). Third, benchmark data characterizing the timing, location, type, and magnitude of disturbances must be systematically created to improve our ability to quantify carbon dynamics over large areas. Finally, improving the representation of ECE&D in regional climate/earth system models and accounting for the resulting feedbacks to climate are essential for understanding the interactions between climate and ecosystem dynamics.

Biogeosciences↗
USGS2016

Decadal and long-term boreal soil carbon and nitrogen sequestration rates across a variety of ecosystems

Boreal soils play a critical role in the global carbon (C) cycle; therefore, it is important to understand the mechanisms that control soil C accumulation and loss for this region. Examining C & nitrogen (N) accumulation rates over decades to centuries may provide additional understanding of the dominant mechanisms for their storage, which can be masked by seasonal and interannual variability when investigated over the short term. We examined longer-term accumulation rates, using 210 Pb and 14 C to date soil layers, for a wide variety of boreal ecosystems: a black spruce forest, a shrub ecosystem, a tussock grass ecosystem, a sedge-dominated ecosystem, and a rich fen. All ecosystems had similar decadal C accumulation rates, averaging 84 ± 42 gC m −2 yr −1 . Long-term (century) C accumulation rates were slower than decadal rates, averaging 14 ± 5 gC m −2 yr −1 for all ecosystems except the rich fen, for which the long-term C accumulation rates was more similar to decadal rates (44 ± 5 and 76 ± 9 gC m −2 yr −1 , respectively). The rich fen also had the highest long-term N accumulation rates (2.7 gN m −2 yr −1 ). The lowest N accumulation rate, on both a decadal and long-term basis, was found in the black spruce forest (0.2 and 1.4 gN m −2 yr −1 , respectively). Our results suggest that the controls on long-term C and N cycling at the rich fen is fundamentally different from the other ecosystems, likely due to differences in the predominant drivers of nutrient cycling (oxygen availability, for C) and reduced amounts of disturbance by fire (for C and N). This result implies that most shifts in ecosystem vegetation across the boreal region, driven by either climate or succession, will not significantly impact regional C or N dynamics over years to decades. However, ecosystem transitions to or from a rich fen will promote significant shifts in soil C and N storage.

Biogeosciences↗
USGS2016

Colored dissolved organic matter in shallow estuaries: relationships between carbon sources and light attenuation

Light availability is of primary importance to the ecological function of shallow estuaries. For example, benthic primary production by submerged aquatic vegetation is contingent upon light penetration to the seabed. A major component that attenuates light in estuaries is colored dissolved organic matter (CDOM). CDOM is often measured via a proxy, fluorescing dissolved organic matter (fDOM), due to the ease of in situ fDOM sensor measurements. Fluorescence must be converted to CDOM absorbance for use in light attenuation calculations. However, this CDOM–fDOM relationship varies among and within estuaries. We quantified the variability in this relationship within three estuaries along the mid-Atlantic margin of the eastern United States: West Falmouth Harbor (MA), Barnegat Bay (NJ), and Chincoteague Bay (MD/VA). Land use surrounding these estuaries ranges from urban to developed, with varying sources of nutrients and organic matter. Measurements of fDOM (excitation and emission wavelengths of 365 nm (±5 nm) and 460 nm (±40 nm), respectively) and CDOM absorbance were taken along a terrestrial-to-marine gradient in all three estuaries. The ratio of the absorption coefficient at 340 nm (m −1 ) to fDOM (QSU) was higher in West Falmouth Harbor (1.22) than in Barnegat Bay (0.22) and Chincoteague Bay (0.17). The CDOM : fDOM absorption ratio was variable between sites within West Falmouth Harbor and Barnegat Bay, but consistent between sites within Chincoteague Bay. Stable carbon isotope analysis for constraining the source of dissolved organic matter (DOM) in West Falmouth Harbor and Barnegat Bay yielded δ 13 C values ranging from −19.7 to −26.1 ‰ and −20.8 to −26.7 ‰, respectively. Concentration and stable carbon isotope mixing models of DOC (dissolved organic carbon) indicate a contribution of 13 C-enriched DOC in the estuaries. The most likely source of 13 C-enriched DOC for the systems we investigated is Spartina cordgrass. Comparison of DOC source to CDOM : fDOM absorption ratios at each site demonstrates the relationship between source and optical properties. Samples with 13 C-enriched carbon isotope values, indicating a greater contribution from marsh organic material, had higher CDOM : fDOM absorption ratios than samples with greater contribution from terrestrial organic material. Applying a uniform CDOM : fDOM absorption ratio and spectral slope within a given estuary yields errors in modeled light attenuation ranging from 11 to 33 % depending on estuary. The application of a uniform absorption ratio across all estuaries doubles this error. This study demonstrates that light attenuation coefficients for CDOM based on continuous fDOM records are highly dependent on the source of DOM present in the estuary. Thus, light attenuation models for estuaries would be improved by quantification of CDOM absorption and DOM source identification.

Biogeosciences↗
USGS2017

Divergence of seafloor elevation and sea level rise in coral reef ecosystems

Coral reefs serve as natural barriers that protect adjacent shorelines from coastal hazards such as storms, waves, and erosion. Projections indicate global degradation of coral reefs due to anthropogenic impacts and climate change will cause a transition to net erosion by mid-century. Here, we provide a comprehensive assessment of the combined effect of all of the processes affecting seafloor accretion and erosion by measuring changes in seafloor elevation and volume for five coral reef ecosystems in the Atlantic, Pacific, and Caribbean over the last several decades. Regional-scale mean elevation and volume losses were observed at all five study sites and in 77 % of the 60 individual habitats that we examined across all study sites. Mean seafloor elevation losses for whole coral reef ecosystems in our study ranged from −0.09 to −0.8 m, corresponding to net volume losses ranging from 3.4 × 10 6 to 80.5 × 10 6 m 3 for all study sites. Erosion of both coral-dominated substrate and non-coral substrate suggests that the current rate of carbonate production is no longer sufficient to support net accretion of coral reefs or adjacent habitats. We show that regional-scale loss of seafloor elevation and volume has accelerated the rate of relative sea level rise in these regions. Current water depths have increased to levels not predicted until near the year 2100, placing these ecosystems and nearby communities at elevated and accelerating risk to coastal hazards. Our results set a new baseline for projecting future impacts to coastal communities resulting from degradation of coral reef systems and associated losses of natural and socioeconomic resources.

Biogeosciences↗
USGS2017

Reviews and syntheses: Field data to benchmark the carbon cycle models for tropical forests

For more accurate projections of both the global carbon (C) cycle and the changing climate, a critical current need is to improve the representation of tropical forests in Earth system models. Tropical forests exchange more C, energy, and water with the atmosphere than any other class of land ecosystems. Further, tropical-forest C cycling is likely responding to the rapid global warming, intensifying water stress, and increasing atmospheric CO 2 levels. Projections of the future C balance of the tropics vary widely among global models. A current effort of the modeling community, the ILAMB (International Land Model Benchmarking) project, is to compile robust observations that can be used to improve the accuracy and realism of the land models for all major biomes. Our goal with this paper is to identify field observations of tropical-forest ecosystem C stocks and fluxes, and of their long-term trends and climatic and CO 2 sensitivities, that can serve this effort. We propose criteria for reference-level field data from this biome and present a set of documented examples from old-growth lowland tropical forests. We offer these as a starting point towards the goal of a regularly updated consensus set of benchmark field observations of C cycling in tropical forests.

Biogeosciences↗
USGS2018

Use of flow cytometry and stable isotope analysis to determine phytoplankton uptake of wastewater derived ammonium in a nutrient-rich river

Anthropogenic alteration of the form and concentration of nitrogen (N) in aquatic ecosystems is widespread. Understanding availability and uptake of different N sources at the base of aquatic food webs is critical to establishment of effective nutrient management programs. Stable isotopes of N ( 14 N, 15 N) are often used to trace the sources of N fueling aquatic primary production, but effective use of this approach requires obtaining a reliable isotopic ratio for phytoplankton. In this study, we tested the use of flow cytometry to isolate phytoplankton from bulk particulate organic matter (POM) in a portion of the Sacramento River, California, during river-scale nutrient manipulation experiments that involved halting wastewater discharges high in ammonium (NH 4 + ). Field samples were collected using a Lagrangian approach, allowing us to measure changes in phytoplankton N source in the presence and absence of wastewater-derived NH 4 + . Comparison of δ 15 N-POM and δ 15 N-phytoplankton ( δ 15 N-PHY) revealed that their δ 15 N values followed broadly similar trends. However, after 3 days of downstream travel in the presence of wastewater treatment plant (WWTP) effluent, δ 15 N-POM and δ 15 N-PHY in the Sacramento River differed by as much as 7 ‰. Using a stable isotope mixing model approach, we estimated that in the presence of effluent between 40 and 90 % of phytoplankton N was derived from NH 4 + after 3 days of downstream transport. An apparent gradual increase over time in the proportion of NH 4 + in the phytoplankton N pool suggests that either very low phytoplankton growth rates resulted in an N turnover time that exceeded the travel time sampled during this study, or a portion of the phytoplankton community continued to access nitrate even in the presence of elevated NH 4 + concentrations.

California↗
USGS2018

Fungal loop transfer of nitrogen depends on biocrust constituents and nitrogen form

Besides performing multiple ecosystem services individually and collectively, biocrust constituents may also create biological networks connecting spatially and temporally distinct processes. In the fungal loop hypothesis rainfall variability allows fungi to act as conduits and reservoirs, translocating resources between soils and host plants. To evaluate the extent to which biocrust species composition and nitrogen (N) form influence loops, we created a minor, localized rainfall event containing 15 NH 4 + and 15 NO 3 − . We then measured the resulting δ 15 N in the surrounding dry cyanobacteria- and lichen-dominated crusts and grass, Achnatherum hymenoides , after 24 h. We also estimated the biomass of fungal constituents using quantitative PCR and characterized fungal communities by sequencing the 18S rRNA gene. We found evidence for the initiation of fungal loops in cyanobacteria-dominated crusts where 15 N, from 15 NH 4 + , moved 40 mm h −1 in biocrust soils with the δ 15 N of crusts decreasing as the radial distance from the water addition increased (linear mixed effects model (LMEM)): R 2 = 0.67, F 2,12 = 11, P = 0.002). In cyanobacteria crusts, δ 15 N, from 15 NH 4 + , was diluted as Ascomycota biomass increased (LMEM: R 2 = 0.63, F 2,8 = 6.8, P = 0.02), Ascomycota accounted for 82 % (±2.8) of all fungal sequences, and one order, Pleosporales, comprised 66 % (±6.9) of Ascomycota. The seeming lack of loops in moss-dominated crusts may stem from the relatively large moss biomass effectively absorbing and holding N from our minor wet deposition event. The substantial movement of 15 NH 4 + may indicate a fungal preference for the reduced N form during amino acid transformation and translocation. We found a marginally significant enrichment of δ 15 N in A. hymenoides leaves but only in cyanobacteria biocrusts translocating 15 N, offering evidence of links between biocrust constituents and higher plants. Our results suggest that minor rainfall events may initiate fungal loops potentially allowing constituents, like dark septate Pleosporales, to rapidly translocate N from NH 4 + over NO 3 − through biocrust networks.

Biogeosciences↗
USGS2018

Patterns of longer-term climate change effects on CO2 efflux from biocrusted soils differ from those observed in the short term

Biological soil crusts (biocrusts) are predicted to be sensitive to the increased temperature and altered precipitation associated with climate change. We assessed the effects of these factors on soil carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) balance in biocrusted soils using a sequence of manipulations over a 9-year period. We warmed biocrusted soils by 2 and, later, by 4 °C to better capture updated forecasts of future temperature at a site on the Colorado Plateau, USA. We also watered soils to alter monsoon-season precipitation amount and frequency and had plots that received both warming and altered precipitation treatments. Within treatment plots, we used 20 automated flux chambers to monitor net soil exchange (NSE) of CO 2 hourly, first in 2006–2007 and then again in 2013–2014, for a total of 39 months. Net CO 2 efflux from biocrusted soils in the warming treatment increased a year after the experiment began (2006–2007). However, after 9 years and even greater warming (4 °C), results were more mixed, with a reversal of the increase in 2013 (i.e., controls showed higher net CO 2 efflux than treatment plots) and with similarly high rates in all treatments during 2014, a wet year. Over the longer term, we saw evidence of reduced photosynthetic capacity of the biocrusts in response to both the temperature and altered precipitation treatments. Patterns in biocrusted soil CO 2 exchange under experimentally altered climate suggest that (1) warming stimulation of CO 2 efflux was diminished later in the experiment, even in the face of greater warming; and (2) treatment effects on CO 2 flux patterns were likely driven by changes in biocrust species composition and by changes in root respiration due to vascular plant responses.

Biogeosciences↗
USGS2018

An intercomparison of oceanic methane and nitrous oxide measurements

Large-scale climatic forcing is impacting oceanic biogeochemical cycles and is expected to influence the water-column distribution of trace gases, including methane and nitrous oxide. Our ability as a scientific community to evaluate changes in the water-column inventories of methane and nitrous oxide depends largely on our capacity to obtain robust and accurate concentration measurements that can be validated across different laboratory groups. This study represents the first formal international intercomparison of oceanic methane and nitrous oxide measurements whereby participating laboratories received batches of seawater samples from the subtropical Pacific Ocean and the Baltic Sea. Additionally, compressed gas standards from the same calibration scale were distributed to the majority of participating laboratories to improve the analytical accuracy of the gas measurements. The computations used by each laboratory to derive the dissolved gas concentrations were also evaluated for inconsistencies (e.g., pressure and temperature corrections, solubility constants). The results from the intercomparison and intercalibration provided invaluable insights into methane and nitrous oxide measurements. It was observed that analyses of seawater samples with the lowest concentrations of methane and nitrous oxide had the lowest precisions. In comparison, while the analytical precision for samples with the highest concentrations of trace gases was better, the variability between the different laboratories was higher: 36 % for methane and 27 % for nitrous oxide. In addition, the comparison of different batches of seawater samples with methane and nitrous oxide concentrations that ranged over an order of magnitude revealed the ramifications of different calibration procedures for each trace gas. Finally, this study builds upon the intercomparison results to develop recommendations for improving oceanic methane and nitrous oxide measurements, with the aim of precluding future analytical discrepancies between laboratories.

Biogeosciences↗
USGS2018

Ecosystem responses to elevated CO2 using airborne remote sensing at Mammoth Mountain, California

We present an exploratory study examining the use of airborne remote-sensing observations to detect ecological responses to elevated CO 2 emissions from active volcanic systems. To evaluate these ecosystem responses, existing spectroscopic, thermal, and lidar data acquired over forest ecosystems on Mammoth Mountain volcano, California, were exploited, along with in situ measurements of persistent volcanic soil CO 2 fluxes. The elevated CO 2 response was used to statistically model ecosystem structure, composition, and function, evaluated via data products including biomass, plant foliar traits and vegetation indices, and evapotranspiration (ET). Using regression ensemble models, we found that soil CO 2 flux was a significant predictor for ecological variables, including canopy greenness (normalized vegetation difference index, NDVI), canopy nitrogen, ET, and biomass. With increasing CO 2 , we found a decrease in ET and an increase in canopy nitrogen, both consistent with theory, suggesting more water- and nutrient-use-efficient canopies. However, we also observed a decrease in NDVI with increasing CO 2 (a mean NDVI of 0.27 at 200 g m −2 d −1 CO 2 reduced to a mean NDVI of 0.10 at 800 g m −2 d −1 CO 2 ). This is inconsistent with theory though consistent with increased efficiency of fewer leaves. We found a decrease in above-ground biomass with increasing CO 2 , also inconsistent with theory, but we did also find a decrease in biomass variance, pointing to a long-term homogenization of structure with elevated CO 2 . Additionally, the relationships between ecological variables changed with elevated CO 2 , suggesting a shift in coupling/decoupling among ecosystem structure, composition, and function synergies. For example, ET and biomass were significantly correlated for areas without elevated CO 2 flux but decoupled with elevated CO 2 flux. This study demonstrates that (a) volcanic systems show great potential as a means to study the properties of ecosystems and their responses to elevated CO 2 emissions and (b) these ecosystem responses are measurable using a suite of airborne remotely sensed data.

California↗
USGS2020

Understanding the uncertainty in global forest carbon turnover

The length of time that carbon remains in forest biomass is one of the largest uncertainties in the global carbon cycle, with both recent historical baselines and future responses to environmental change poorly constrained by available observations. In the absence of large-scale observations, models used for global assessments tend to fall back on simplified assumptions of the turnover rates of biomass and soil carbon pools. In this study, the biomass carbon turnover times calculated by an ensemble of contemporary terrestrial biosphere models (TBMs) are analysed to assess their current capability to accurately estimate biomass carbon turnover times in forests and how these times are anticipated to change in the future. Modelled baseline 1985–2014 global average forest biomass turnover times vary from 12.2 to 23.5 years between TBMs. TBM differences in phenological processes, which control allocation to, and turnover rate of, leaves and fine roots, are as important as tree mortality with regard to explaining the variation in total turnover among TBMs. The different governing mechanisms exhibited by each TBM result in a wide range of plausible turnover time projections for the end of the century. Based on these simulations, it is not possible to draw robust conclusions regarding likely future changes in turnover time, and thus biomass change, for different regions. Both spatial and temporal uncertainty in turnover time are strongly linked to model assumptions concerning plant functional type distributions and their controls. Thirteen model-based hypotheses of controls on turnover time are identified, along with recommendations for pragmatic steps to test them using existing and novel observations. Efforts to resolve uncertainty in turnover time, and thus its impacts on the future evolution of biomass carbon stocks across the world's forests, will need to address both mortality and establishment components of forest demography, as well as allocation of carbon to woody versus non-woody biomass growth.

Biogeosciences↗
USGS2020

Thermokarst amplifies fluvial inorganic carbon cycling and export across watershed scales on the Peel Plateau, Canada

As climate warming and precipitation increase at high latitudes, permafrost terrains across the circumpolar north are poised for intensified geomorphic activity and sediment mobilization that are expected to persist for millennia. In previously glaciated permafrost terrain, ice-rich deposits are associated with large stores of reactive mineral substrate. Over geological timescales, chemical weathering moderates atmospheric CO 2 levels, raising the prospect that mass wasting driven by terrain consolidation following thaw (thermokarst) may enhance weathering of permafrost sediments and thus climate feedbacks. The nature of these feedbacks depends upon the mineral composition of sediments (weathering sources) and the balance between atmospheric exchange of CO 2 vs. fluvial export of carbonate alkalinity ( Σ [ HCO 3 - "> HCO − 3 , CO 3 2 - "> CO 2 − 3 ]). Working in the fluvially incised, ice-rich glacial deposits of the Peel Plateau in northwestern Canada, we determine the effects of slope thermokarst in the form of retrogressive thaw slump (RTS) activity on mineral weathering sources, CO 2 dynamics, and carbonate alkalinity export and how these effects integrate across watershed scales ( ∼ 2 to 1000 km 2 ). We worked along three transects in nested watersheds with varying connectivity to RTS activity: a 550 m transect along a first-order thaw stream within a large RTS, a 14 km transect along a stream which directly received inputs from several RTSs, and a 70 km transect along a larger stream with headwaters that lay outside of RTS influence. In undisturbed headwaters, stream chemistry reflected CO 2 from soil respiration processes and atmospheric exchange. Within the RTS, rapid sulfuric acid carbonate weathering, prompted by the exposure of sulfide- and carbonate-bearing tills, appeared to increase fluvial CO 2 efflux to the atmosphere and propagate carbonate alkalinity across watershed scales. Despite covering less than 1 % of the landscape, RTS activity drove carbonate alkalinity to increase by 2 orders of magnitude along the largest transect. Amplified export of carbonate alkalinity together with isotopic signals of shifting DIC and CO 2 sources along the downstream transects highlights the dynamic nature of carbon cycling that may typify glaciated permafrost watersheds subject to intensification of hillslope thermokarst. The balance between CO 2 drawdown in regions where carbonic acid weathering predominates and CO 2 release in regions where sulfides are more prevalent will determine the biogeochemical legacy of thermokarst and enhanced weathering in northern permafrost terrains. Effects of RTSs on carbon cycling can be expected to persist for millennia, indicating a need for their integration into predictions of weathering–carbon–climate feedbacks among thermokarst terrains.

Biogeosciences↗
USGS2020

Ideas and perspectives: A strategic assessment of methane and nitrous oxide measurements in the marine environment

>In the current era of rapid climate change, accurate characterization of climate-relevant gas dynamics – namely production, consumption, and net emissions – is required for all biomes, especially those ecosystems most susceptible to the impact of change. Marine environments include regions that act as net sources or sinks for numerous climate-active trace gases including methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O). The temporal and spatial distributions of CH4 and N2O are controlled by the interaction of complex biogeochemical and physical processes. To evaluate and quantify how these mechanisms affect marine CH4 and N2O cycling requires a combination of traditional scientific disciplines including oceanography, microbiology, and numerical modeling. Fundamental to these efforts is ensuring that the datasets produced by independent scientists are comparable and interoperable. Equally critical is transparent communication within the research community about the technical improvements required to increase our collective understanding of marine CH4 and N2O. A workshop sponsored by Ocean Carbon and Biogeochemistry (OCB) was organized to enhance dialogue and collaborations pertaining to marine CH4 and N2O. Here, we summarize the outcomes from the workshop to describe the challenges and opportunities for near-future CH4 and N2O research in the marine environment.

Biogeosciences↗
USGS2005

Submarine groundwater discharge to a small estuary estimated from radon and salinity measurements and a box model

Submarine groundwater discharge was quantified by a variety of methods for a 4-day period during the early summer of 2004, in Salt Pond, adjacent to Nauset Marsh, on Cape Cod, USA. Discharge estimates based on radon and salinity took advantage of the presence of the narrow channel connecting Salt Pond to Nauset Marsh, which allowed constructing whole-pond mass balances as water flowed in and out due to tidal fluctuations. The data suggest that less than one quarter of the discharge in the vicinity of Salt Pond happened within the pond itself, while three quarters or more of the discharge occurred immediately seaward of the pond, either in the channel or in adjacent regions of Nauset Marsh. Much of this discharge, which maintains high radon activities and low salinity, is carried into the pond during each incoming tide. A box model was used as an aid to understand both the rates and the locations of discharge in the vicinity of Salt Pond. The model achieves a reasonable fit to both the salinity and radon data assuming submarine groundwater discharge is fresh and that most of it occurs either in the channel or in adjacent regions of Nauset Marsh. Salinity and radon data, together with seepage meter results, do not rule out discharge of saline groundwater, but suggest either that the saline discharge is at most comparable in volume to the fresh discharge or that it is depleted in radon. The estimated rate of fresh groundwater discharge in the vicinity of Salt Pond is 3000-7000 m 3 d -1 . This groundwater flux estimated from the radon and salinity data is comparable to a value of 3200-4500 m 3 d -1 predicted by a recent hydrologic model (Masterson, 2004; Colman and Masterson, 2004), although the model predicts this rate of discharge to the pond whereas our data suggest most of the groundwater bypasses the pond prior to discharge. Additional work is needed to determine if the measured rate of discharge is representative of the long-term average, and to better constrain the rate of groundwater discharge seaward of Salt Pond.

Biogeosciences Discussions↗
USGS2023

Impacts and uncertainties of climate-induced changes in watershed inputs on estuarine hypoxia

Multiple climate-driven stressors, including warming and increased nutrient delivery, are exacerbating hypoxia in coastal marine environments. Within coastal watersheds, environmental managers are particularly interested in climate impacts on terrestrial processes, which may undermine the efficacy of management actions designed to reduce eutrophication and consequent low-oxygen conditions in receiving coastal waters. However, substantial uncertainty accompanies the application of Earth system model (ESM) projections to a regional modeling framework when quantifying future changes to estuarine hypoxia due to climate change. In this study, two downscaling methods are applied to multiple ESMs and used to force two independent watershed models for Chesapeake Bay, a large coastal-plain estuary of the eastern United States. The projected watershed changes are then used to force a coupled 3-D hydrodynamic–biogeochemical estuarine model to project climate impacts on hypoxia, with particular emphasis on projection uncertainties. Results indicate that all three factors (ESM, downscaling method, and watershed model) are found to contribute substantially to the uncertainty associated with future hypoxia, with the choice of ESM being the largest contributor. Overall, in the absence of management actions, there is a high likelihood that climate change impacts on the watershed will expand low-oxygen conditions by 2050 relative to a 1990s baseline period; however, the projected increase in hypoxia is quite small (4 %) because only climate-induced changes in watershed inputs are considered and not those on the estuary itself. Results also demonstrate that the attainment of established nutrient reduction targets will reduce annual hypoxia by about 50 % compared to the 1990s. Given these estimates, it is virtually certain that fully implemented management actions reducing excess nutrient loadings will outweigh hypoxia increases driven by climate-induced changes in terrestrial runoff.

Maryland, Virginia↗
USGS2018

Carbonate system parameters of an algal-dominated reef along west Maui

Constraining coral reef metabolism and carbon chemistry dynamics are fundamental for understanding and predicting reef vulnerability to rising coastal CO 2 concentrations and decreasing seawater pH. However, few studies exist along reefs occupying densely inhabited shorelines with known input from land-based sources of pollution. The shallow coral reefs off Kahekili, West Maui, are exposed to nutrient-enriched, low-pH submarine groundwater discharge (SGD) and are particularly vulnerable to the compounding stressors from land-based sources of pollution and lower seawater pH. To constrain the carbonate chemistry system, nutrients and carbonate chemistry were measured along the Kahekili reef flat every 4 h over a 6-d sampling period in March 2016. Abiotic process – primarily SGD fluxes – controlled the carbonate chemistry adjacent to the primary SGD vent site, with nutrient-laden freshwater decreasing pH levels and favoring undersaturated aragonite saturation (Ω arag ) conditions. In contrast, diurnal variability in the carbonate chemistry at other sites along the reef flat was driven by reef community metabolism. Superimposed on the diurnal signal was a transition during the second sampling period to a surplus of total alkalinity (TA) and dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) compared to ocean end-member TA and DIC measurements. A shift from net community production and calcification to net respiration and carbonate dissolution was identified. This transition occurred during a period of increased SGD-driven nutrient loading, lower wave height, and reduced current speeds. This detailed study of carbon chemistry dynamics highlights the need to incorporate local effects of nearshore oceanographic processes into predictions of coral reef vulnerability and resilience.

Hawaii↗
USGS2020

Understanding the effect of fire on vegetation composition and gross primary production in a semi-arid shrubland ecosystem using the Ecosystem Demography (EDv2.2) model

Wildfires in sagebrush (Artemisia spp.) dominated semi-arid ecosystems in the western United States have increased dramatically in frequency and severity in the last few decades. Severe wildfires often lead to the loss of native sagebrush communities and change the biogeochemical conditions which make it difficult for sagebrush to regenerate. Invasion of cheat- grass (Bromus tectorum) accentuates the problem by making the ecosystem more susceptible to frequent burns. Managers have implemented several techniques to cope with the cheatgrass-fire cycle, ranging from controlling undesirable fire effects by removing fuel loads either mechanically or via prescribed burns, to seeding the fire-affected areas with shrubs and native perennial forbs. There have been a number of studies at local scales to understand the direct impacts of wildfire on vegetation, however, there is a larger gap in understanding these impacts at broad spatial and temporal scales. This need highlights the importance of dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) and remote sensing. In this study, we explored the influence of fir on vegetation composition and gross primary production (GPP) in the sagebrush ecosystem using the Ecosystem Demography (EDv2.2) model, a dynamic global vegetation model. We selected Reynolds Creek Experimental Watershed (RCEW) to run our simulation study, an intensively monitored sagebrush-dominated ecosystem in the northern Great Basin. We ran point-based simulations at four existing flux-tower sites in the study area for a total 150 years after turning on the fire module in the 25th year. Results suggest dominance of shrubs in a non-fire scenario, however under the fire scenario we observed contrasting phases of high and low shrub density and C3 grass growth. Regional model simulations showed a gradual decline in GPP for fire-introduced areas through the initial couple of years instead of killing all the vegetation in the affected area in the first year itself. We also compared the results from EDv2.2 with satellite-derived GPP estimates for the areas in RCEW burned by a wildfire in 2015 (Soda Fire). We observed moderate pixel-level correlations between maps of post-fire recovery EDv2.2 GPP and MODIS derived GPP. This study contributes to understanding the application of ecosystem models to investigate temporal dynamics of vegetation under alternative fire regimes and post-fire ecosystem restoration.

Idaho↗
USGS2025

Decomposing the Tea Bag Index and finding slower organic matter loss rates at higher elevations and deeper soil horizons in a minerogenic salt marsh

Environmental gradients can affect organic matter decay within and across wetlands and contribute to spatial heterogeneity in soil carbon stocks. We tested the sensitivity of decay rates to tidal flooding and soil depth in a minerogenic salt marsh using the Tea Bag Index (TBI). Tea bags were buried at 10 and 50 cm depths across an elevation gradient in a subtropical Spartina alterniflora marsh in Georgia (USA). Plant and animal communities and soil properties were characterized once, while replicate tea bags and porewaters were collected several times over 1 year. TBI decay rates were faster than prior litterbag studies in the same marsh, largely due to rapid green tea loss. Rooibos tea decay rates were more comparable to natural marsh litter, potentially suggesting that is more useful as a standardized organic matter proxy than green tea. Decay was slowest at higher marsh elevations and not consistently related to other biotic (e.g., plants, crab burrows) or abiotic factors (e.g., porewater chemistry), indicating that local hydrology strongly affected organic matter loss rates. TBI rates were 32 %–118 % faster in the 10 cm horizon than at 50 cm. Rates were fastest in the first 3 months and slowed 54 %–60 % at both depths between 3 and 6 months. Rates slowed further between 6 and 12 months, but this was more muted at 10 cm (17 %) compared to 50 cm (50 %). Slower rates at depth and with time were unlikely due to the TBI stabilization factor, which was similar across depths and decreased from 6 to 12 months. Slower decay at 50 cm demonstrates that rates were constrained by environmental conditions in the deeper horizon rather than the composition of this highly standardized litter. Overall, these patterns suggest that hydrological setting, which affects oxidant introduction and reactant removal and is often overlooked in marsh decomposition studies, may be a particularly important control on organic matter loss in the short term (3–12 months).

Georgia↗