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At least 217 records · Page 12Linked to original sources
USGS2016

Panel regressions to estimate low-flow response to rainfall variability in ungaged basins

Multicollinearity and omitted-variable bias are major limitations to developing multiple linear regression models to estimate streamflow characteristics in ungaged areas and varying rainfall conditions. Panel regression is used to overcome limitations of traditional regression methods, and obtain reliable model coefficients, in particular to understand the elasticity of streamflow to rainfall. Using annual rainfall and selected basin characteristics at 86 gaged streams in the Hawaiian Islands, regional regression models for three stream classes were developed to estimate the annual low-flow duration discharges. Three panel-regression structures (random effects, fixed effects, and pooled) were compared to traditional regression methods, in which space is substituted for time. Results indicated that panel regression generally was able to reproduce the temporal behavior of streamflow and reduce the standard errors of model coefficients compared to traditional regression, even for models in which the unobserved heterogeneity between streams is significant and the variance inflation factor for rainfall is much greater than 10. This is because both spatial and temporal variability were better characterized in panel regression. In a case study, regional rainfall elasticities estimated from panel regressions were applied to ungaged basins on Maui, using available rainfall projections to estimate plausible changes in surface-water availability and usable stream habitat for native species. The presented panel-regression framework is shown to offer benefits over existing traditional hydrologic regression methods for developing robust regional relations to investigate streamflow response in a changing climate.

Hawaii↗
USGS2016

Inferring river bathymetry via Image-to-Depth Quantile Transformation (IDQT)

Conventional, regression-based methods of inferring depth from passive optical image data undermine the advantages of remote sensing for characterizing river systems. This study introduces and evaluates a more flexible framework, Image-to-Depth Quantile Transformation (IDQT), that involves linking the frequency distribution of pixel values to that of depth. In addition, a new image processing workflow involving deep water correction and Minimum Noise Fraction (MNF) transformation can reduce a hyperspectral data set to a single variable related to depth and thus suitable for input to IDQT. Applied to a gravel bed river, IDQT avoided negative depth estimates along channel margins and underpredictions of pool depth. Depth retrieval accuracy (R25 0.79) and precision (0.27 m) were comparable to an established band ratio-based method, although a small shallow bias (0.04 m) was observed. Several ways of specifying distributions of pixel values and depths were evaluated but had negligible impact on the resulting depth estimates, implying that IDQT was robust to these implementation details. In essence, IDQT uses frequency distributions of pixel values and depths to achieve an aspatial calibration; the image itself provides information on the spatial distribution of depths. The approach thus reduces sensitivity to misalignment between field and image data sets and allows greater flexibility in the timing of field data collection relative to image acquisition, a significant advantage in dynamic channels. IDQT also creates new possibilities for depth retrieval in the absence of field data if a model could be used to predict the distribution of depths within a reach.

Water Resources Research↗
USGS2016

Time-lapse gravity data for monitoring and modeling artificial recharge through a thick unsaturated zone

Groundwater-level measurements in monitoring wells or piezometers are the most common, and often the only, hydrologic measurements made at artificial recharge facilities. Measurements of gravity change over time provide an additional source of information about changes in groundwater storage, infiltration, and for model calibration. We demonstrate that for an artificial recharge facility with a deep groundwater table, gravity data are more sensitive to movement of water through the unsaturated zone than are groundwater levels. Groundwater levels have a delayed response to infiltration, change in a similar manner at many potential monitoring locations, and are heavily influenced by high-frequency noise induced by pumping; in contrast, gravity changes start immediately at the onset of infiltration and are sensitive to water in the unsaturated zone. Continuous gravity data can determine infiltration rate, and the estimate is only minimally affected by uncertainty in water-content change. Gravity data are also useful for constraining parameters in a coupled groundwater-unsaturated zone model (Modflow-NWT model with the Unsaturated Zone Flow (UZF) package).

Water Resources Research↗
USGS2016

Estimation of time-variable fast flow path chemical concentrations for application in tracer-based hydrograph separation analyses

Mixing models are a commonly used method for hydrograph separation, but can be hindered by the subjective choice of the end-member tracer concentrations. This work tests a new variant of mixing model that uses high-frequency measures of two tracers and streamflow to separate total streamflow into water from slowflow and fastflow sources. The ratio between the concentrations of the two tracers is used to create a time-variable estimate of the concentration of each tracer in the fastflow end-member. Multiple synthetic data sets, and data from two hydrologically diverse streams, are used to test the performance and limitations of the new model (two-tracer ratio-based mixing model: TRaMM). When applied to the synthetic streams under many different scenarios, the TRaMM produces results that were reasonable approximations of the actual values of fastflow discharge (±0.1% of maximum fastflow) and fastflow tracer concentrations (±9.5% and ±16% of maximum fastflow nitrate concentration and specific conductance, respectively). With real stream data, the TRaMM produces high-frequency estimates of slowflow and fastflow discharge that align with expectations for each stream based on their respective hydrologic settings. The use of two tracers with the TRaMM provides an innovative and objective approach for estimating high-frequency fastflow concentrations and contributions of fastflow water to the stream. This provides useful information for tracking chemical movement to streams and allows for better selection and implementation of water quality management strategies.

Water Resources Research↗
USGS2016

Combined use of thermal methods and seepage meters to efficiently locate, quantify, and monitor focused groundwater discharge to a sand-bed stream

Quantifying flow of groundwater through streambeds often is difficult due to the complexity of aquifer-scale heterogeneity combined with local-scale hyporheic exchange. We used fiber-optic distributed temperature sensing (FO-DTS), seepage meters, and vertical temperature profiling to locate, quantify, and monitor areas of focused groundwater discharge in a geomorphically simple sand-bed stream. This combined approach allowed us to rapidly focus efforts at locations where prodigious amounts of groundwater discharged to the Quashnet River on Cape Cod, Massachusetts, northeastern USA. FO-DTS detected numerous anomalously cold reaches one to several m long that persisted over two summers. Seepage meters positioned upstream, within, and downstream of 7 anomalously cold reaches indicated that rapid groundwater discharge occurred precisely where the bed was cold; median upward seepage was nearly 5 times faster than seepage measured in streambed areas not identified as cold. Vertical temperature profilers deployed next to 8 seepage meters provided diurnal-signal-based seepage estimates that compared remarkably well with seepage-meter values. Regression slope and R 2 values both were near 1 for seepage ranging from 0.05 to 3.0 m d −1 . Temperature-based seepage model accuracy was improved with thermal diffusivity determined locally from diurnal signals. Similar calculations provided values for streambed sediment scour and deposition at subdaily resolution. Seepage was strongly heterogeneous even along a sand-bed river that flows over a relatively uniform sand and fine-gravel aquifer. FO-DTS was an efficient method for detecting areas of rapid groundwater discharge, even in a strongly gaining river, that can then be quantified over time with inexpensive streambed thermal methods.

Massachusetts↗
USGS2016

Flow reconstructions in the Upper Missouri River Basin using riparian tree rings

River flow reconstructions are typically developed using tree rings from montane conifers that cannot reflect flow regulation or hydrologic inputs from the lower portions of a watershed. Incorporating lowland riparian trees may improve the accuracy of flow reconstructions when these trees are physically linked to the alluvial water table. We used riparian plains cottonwoods ( Populus deltoides ssp. monilifera ) to reconstruct discharge for three neighboring rivers in the Upper Missouri River Basin: the Yellowstone ( n = 389 tree cores), Powder ( n = 408), and Little Missouri Rivers ( n = 643). We used the Regional Curve Standardization approach to reconstruct log-transformed discharge over the 4 months in early summer that most highly correlated to tree ring growth. The reconstructions explained at least 57% of the variance in historical discharge and extended back to 1742, 1729, and 1643. These are the first flow reconstructions for the Lower Yellowstone and Powder Rivers, and they are the furthest downstream among Rocky Mountain rivers in the Missouri River Basin. Although mostly free-flowing, the Yellowstone and Powder Rivers experienced a shift from early-summer to late-summer flows within the last century. This shift is concurrent with increasing irrigation and reservoir storage, and it corresponds to decreased cottonwood growth. Low-frequency flow patterns revealed wet conditions from 1870 to 1980, a period that includes the majority of the historical record. The 1816–1823 and 1861–1865 droughts were more severe than any recorded, revealing that drought risks are underestimated when using the instrumental record alone.

Water Resources Research↗
USGS2016

Variation of organic matter quantity and quality in streams at Critical Zone Observatory watersheds

The quantity and chemical composition of dissolved organic matter (DOM) in surface waters influence ecosystem processes and anthropogenic use of freshwater. However, despite the importance of understanding spatial and temporal patterns in DOM, measures of DOM quality are not routinely included as part of large-scale ecosystem monitoring programs and variations in analytical procedures can introduce artifacts. In this study, we used consistent sampling and analytical methods to meet the objective of defining variability in DOM quantity and quality and other measures of water quality in streamflow issuing from small forested watersheds located within five Critical Zone Observatory sites representing contrasting environmental conditions. Results show distinct separations among sites as a function of water quality constituents. Relationships among rates of atmospheric deposition, water quality conditions, and stream DOM quantity and quality are consistent with the notion that areas with relatively high rates of atmospheric nitrogen and sulfur deposition and high concentrations of divalent cations result in selective transport of DOM derived from microbial sources, including in-stream microbial phototrophs. We suggest that the critical zone as a whole strongly influences the origin, composition, and fate of DOM in streams. This study highlights the value of consistent DOM characterization methods included as part of long-term monitoring programs for improving our understanding of interactions among ecosystem processes as controls on DOM biogeochemistry.

Water Resources Research↗
USGS2016

Observed and simulated hydrologic response for a first-order catchment during extreme rainfall 3 years after wildfire disturbance

Hydrologic response to extreme rainfall in disturbed landscapes is poorly understood because of the paucity of measurements. A unique opportunity presented itself when extreme rainfall in September 2013 fell on a headwater catchment (i.e., <1 ha) in Colorado, USA that had previously been burned by a wildfire in 2010. We compared measurements of soil-hydraulic properties, soil saturation from subsurface sensors, and estimated peak runoff during the extreme rainfall with numerical simulations of runoff generation and subsurface hydrologic response during this event. The simulations were used to explore differences in runoff generation between the wildfire-affected headwater catchment, a simulated unburned case, and for uniform versus spatially variable parameterizations of soil-hydraulic properties that affect infiltration and runoff generation in burned landscapes. Despite 3 years of elapsed time since the 2010 wildfire, observations and simulations pointed to substantial surface runoff generation in the wildfire-affected headwater catchment by the infiltration-excess mechanism while no surface runoff was generated in the unburned case. The surface runoff generation was the result of incomplete recovery of soil-hydraulic properties in the burned area, suggesting recovery takes longer than 3 years. Moreover, spatially variable soil-hydraulic property parameterizations produced longer duration but lower peak-flow infiltration-excess runoff, compared to uniform parameterization, which may have important hillslope sediment export and geomorphologic implications during long duration, extreme rainfall. The majority of the simulated surface runoff in the spatially variable cases came from connected near-channel contributing areas, which was a substantially smaller contributing area than the uniform simulations.

Water Resources Research↗
USGS2016

On the deterministic and stochastic use of hydrologic models

Environmental simulation models, such as precipitation-runoff watershed models, are increasingly used in a deterministic manner for environmental and water resources design, planning, and management. In operational hydrology, simulated responses are now routinely used to plan, design, and manage a very wide class of water resource systems. However, all such models are calibrated to existing data sets and retain some residual error. This residual, typically unknown in practice, is often ignored, implicitly trusting simulated responses as if they are deterministic quantities. In general, ignoring the residuals will result in simulated responses with distributional properties that do not mimic those of the observed responses. This discrepancy has major implications for the operational use of environmental simulation models as is shown here. Both a simple linear model and a distributed-parameter precipitation-runoff model are used to document the expected bias in the distributional properties of simulated responses when the residuals are ignored. The systematic reintroduction of residuals into simulated responses in a manner that produces stochastic output is shown to improve the distributional properties of the simulated responses. Every effort should be made to understand the distributional behavior of simulation residuals and to use environmental simulation models in a stochastic manner.

Water Resources Research↗
USGS2017

Generation of 3-D hydrostratigraphic zones from dense airborne electromagnetic data to assess groundwater model prediction error

We present a new methodology to combine spatially dense high-resolution airborne electromagnetic (AEM) data and sparse borehole information to construct multiple plausible geological structures using a stochastic approach. The method developed allows for quantification of the performance of groundwater models built from different geological realizations of structure. Multiple structural realizations are generated using geostatistical Monte Carlo simulations that treat sparse borehole lithological observations as hard data and dense geophysically derived structural probabilities as soft data. Each structural model is used to define 3-D hydrostratigraphical zones of a groundwater model, and the hydraulic parameter values of the zones are estimated by using nonlinear regression to fit hydrological data (hydraulic head and river discharge measurements). Use of the methodology is demonstrated for a synthetic domain having structures of categorical deposits consisting of sand, silt, or clay. It is shown that using dense AEM data with the methodology can significantly improve the estimated accuracy of the sediment distribution as compared to when borehole data are used alone. It is also shown that this use of AEM data can improve the predictive capability of a calibrated groundwater model that uses the geological structures as zones. However, such structural models will always contain errors because even with dense AEM data it is not possible to perfectly resolve the structures of a groundwater system. It is shown that when using such erroneous structures in a groundwater model, they can lead to biased parameter estimates and biased model predictions, therefore impairing the model's predictive capability.

Water Resources Research↗
USGS2016

Bounded fractional diffusion in geological media: Definition and Lagrangian approximation

Spatiotemporal Fractional-Derivative Models (FDMs) have been increasingly used to simulate non-Fickian diffusion, but methods have not been available to define boundary conditions for FDMs in bounded domains. This study defines boundary conditions and then develops a Lagrangian solver to approximate bounded, one-dimensional fractional diffusion. Both the zero-value and non-zero-value Dirichlet, Neumann, and mixed Robin boundary conditions are defined, where the sign of Riemann-Liouville fractional derivative (capturing non-zero-value spatial-nonlocal boundary conditions with directional super-diffusion) remains consistent with the sign of the fractional-diffusive flux term in the FDMs. New Lagrangian schemes are then proposed to track solute particles moving in bounded domains, where the solutions are checked against analytical or Eularian solutions available for simplified FDMs. Numerical experiments show that the particle-tracking algorithm for non-Fickian diffusion differs from Fickian diffusion in relocating the particle position around the reflective boundary, likely due to the non-local and non-symmetric fractional diffusion. For a non-zero-value Neumann or Robin boundary, a source cell with a reflective face can be applied to define the release rate of random-walking particles at the specified flux boundary. Mathematical definitions of physically meaningful nonlocal boundaries combined with bounded Lagrangian solvers in this study may provide the only viable techniques at present to quantify the impact of boundaries on anomalous diffusion, expanding the applicability of FDMs from infinite do mains to those with any size and boundary conditions.

Water Resources Research↗
USGS2016

Yosemite Hydroclimate Network: Distributed stream and atmospheric data for the Tuolumne River watershed and surroundings

Regions of complex topography and remote wilderness terrain have spatially varying patterns of temperature and streamflow, but due to inherent difficulties of access, are often very poorly sampled. Here we present a data set of distributed stream stage, streamflow, stream temperature, barometric pressure, and air temperature from the Tuolumne River Watershed in Yosemite National Park, Sierra Nevada, California, USA, for water years 2002–2015, as well as a quality-controlled hourly meteorological forcing time series for use in hydrologic modeling. We also provide snow data and daily inflow to the Hetch Hetchy Reservoir for 1970–2015. This paper describes data collected using low-visibility and low-impact installations for wilderness locations and can be used alone or as a critical supplement to ancillary data sets collected by cooperating agencies, referenced herein. This data set provides a unique opportunity to understand spatial patterns and scaling of hydroclimatic processes in complex terrain and can be used to evaluate downscaling techniques or distributed modeling. The paper also provides an example methodology and lessons learned in conducting hydroclimatic monitoring in remote wilderness.

California↗
USGS2017

Tracer-based characterization of hyporheic exchange and benthic biolayers in streams

Shallow benthic biolayers at the top of the streambed are believed to be places of enhanced biogeochemical turnover within the hyporheic zone. They can be investigated by reactive stream tracer tests with tracer recordings in the streambed and in the stream channel. Common in-stream measurements of such reactive tracers cannot localize where the processing primarily takes place, whereas isolated vertical depth profiles of solutes within the hyporheic zone are usually not representative of the entire stream. We present results of a tracer test where we injected the conservative tracer bromide together with the reactive tracer resazurin into a third-order stream and combined the recording of in-stream breakthrough curves with multidepth sampling of the hyporheic zone at several locations. The transformation of resazurin was used as an indicator of metabolism, and high-reactivity zones were identified from depth profiles. The results from our subsurface analysis indicate that the potential for tracer transformation (i.e., the reaction rate constant) varied with depth in the hyporheic zone. This highlights the importance of the benthic biolayer, which we found to be on average 2 cm thick in this study, ranging from one third to one half of the full depth of the hyporheic zone. The reach-scale approach integrated the effects of processes along the reach length, isolating hyporheic processes relevant for whole-stream chemistry and estimating effective reaction rates.

Water Resources Research↗
USGS2017

Nutrient processes at the stream-lake interface for a channelized versus unmodified stream mouth

Inorganic forms of nitrogen and phosphorous impact freshwater lakes by stimulating primary production and affecting water quality and ecosystem health. Communities around the world are motivated to sustain and restore freshwater resources and are interested in processes controlling nutrient inputs. We studied the environment where streams flow into lakes, referred to as the stream-lake interface (SLI), for a channelized and unmodified stream outlet. Channelization is done to protect infrastructure or recreational beach areas. We collected hydraulic and nutrient data for surface water and shallow groundwater in two SLIs to develop conceptual models that describe characteristics that are representative of these hydrologic features. Water, heat, and solute transport models were used to evaluate hydrologic conceptualizations and estimate mean residence times of water in the sediment. A nutrient mass balance model is developed to estimate net rates of adsorption and desorption, mineralization, and nitrification along subsurface flow paths. Results indicate that SLIs are dynamic sources of nutrients to lakes and that the common practice of channelizing the stream at the SLI decreases nutrient concentrations in pore water discharging along the lakeshore. This is in contrast to the unmodified SLI that forms a barrier beach that disconnects the stream from the lake and results in higher nutrient concentrations in pore water discharging to the lake. These results are significant because nutrient delivery through pore water seepage at the lakebed from the natural SLI contributes to nearshore algal communities and produces elevated concentrations of inorganic nutrients in the benthic zone where attached algae grow.

Water Resources Research↗
USGS2017

Calculation of in situ acoustic sediment attenuation using off-the-shelf horizontal ADCPs in low concentration settings

The use of “off-the-shelf” acoustic Doppler velocity profilers (ADCPs) to estimate suspended sediment concentration and grain-size in rivers requires robust methods to estimate sound attenuation by suspended sediment. Theoretical estimates of sediment attenuation require a priori knowledge of the concentration and grain-size distribution (GSD), making the method impractical to apply in routine monitoring programs. In situ methods use acoustic backscatter profile slope to estimate sediment attenuation, and are a more attractive option. However, the performance of in situ sediment attenuation methods has not been extensively compared to theoretical methods. We used three collocated horizontally mounted ADCPs in the Fraser River at Mission, British Columbia and 298 observations of concentration and GSD along the acoustic beams to calculate theoretical and in situ sediment attenuation. Conversion of acoustic intensity from counts to decibels is influenced by the instrument noise floor, which affects the backscatter profile shape and therefore in situ attenuation. We develop a method that converts counts to decibels to maximize profile length, which is useful in rivers where cross-channel acoustic profile penetration is a fraction of total channel width. Nevertheless, the agreement between theoretical and in situ attenuation is poor at low concentrations because cross-stream gradients in concentration, sediment size or GSD can develop, which affect the backscatter profiles. We establish threshold concentrations below which in situ attenuation is unreliable in Fraser River. Our results call for careful examination of cross-stream changes in suspended sediment characteristics and acoustic profiles across a range of flows before in situ attenuation methods are applied in river monitoring programs.

Water Resources Research↗
USGS2017

Tropical river suspended sediment and solute dynamics in storms during an extreme drought

Droughts, which can strongly affect both hydrologic and biogeochemical systems, are projected to become more prevalent in the tropics in the future. We assessed the effects of an extreme drought during 2015 on stream water composition in the Luquillo Mountains of Puerto Rico. We demonstrated that drought base flow in the months leading up to the study was sourced from trade-wind orographic rainfall, suggesting a resistance to the effects of an otherwise extreme drought. In two catchments (Mameyes and Icacos), we sampled a series of four rewetting events that partially alleviated the drought. We collected and analyzed dissolved constituents (major cations and anions, organic carbon, and nitrogen) and suspended sediment (inorganic and organic matter (particulate organic carbon and particulate nitrogen)). The rivers appeared to be resistant to extreme drought, recovering quickly upon rewetting, as (1) the concentration-discharge (C-Q) relationships deviated little from the long-term patterns; (2) “new water” dominated streamflow during the latter events; (3) suspended sediment sources had accumulated in the channel during the drought flushed out during the initial events; and (4) the severity of the drought, as measured by the US drought monitor, was reduced dramatically after the rewetting events. Through this interdisciplinary study, we were able to investigate the impact of extreme drought through rewetting events on the river biogeochemistry.

Water Resources Research↗
USGS2017

Thermal effect of climate change on groundwater-fed ecosystems

Groundwater temperature changes will lag surface temperature changes from a changing climate. Steady state solutions of the heat-transport equations are used to identify key processes that control the long-term thermal response of springs and other groundwater discharge to climate change, in particular changes in (1) groundwater recharge rate and temperature and (2) land-surface temperature transmitted through the vadose zone. Transient solutions are developed to estimate the time required for new thermal signals to arrive at ecosystems. The solution is applied to the volcanic Medicine Lake highlands, California, USA, and associated springs complexes that host groundwater-dependent ecosystems. In this system, upper basin groundwater temperatures are strongly affected only by recharge conditions. However, as the vadose zone thins away from the highlands, changes in the average annual land-surface temperature also influence groundwater temperatures. Transient response to temperature change depends on both the conductive time scale and the rate at which recharge delivers heat. Most of the thermal response of groundwater at high elevations will occur within 20 years of a shift in recharge temperatures, but the large lower elevation springs will respond more slowly, with about half of the conductive response occurring within the first 20 years and about half of the advective response to higher recharge temperatures occurring in approximately 60 years.

California↗
USGS2017

Hydrologic impacts of changes in climate and glacier extent in the Gulf of Alaska watershed

High‐resolution regional‐scale hydrologic models were used to quantify the response of late 21st century runoff from the Gulf of Alaska (GOA) watershed to changes in regional climate and glacier extent. NCEP Climate Forecast System Reanalysis data were combined with five Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 general circulation models (GCMs) for two representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios (4.5 and 8.5) to develop meteorological forcing for the period 2070–2099. A hypsographic model was used to estimate future glacier extent given assumed equilibrium line altitude (ELA) increases of 200 and 400 m. GCM predictions show an increase in annual precipitation of 12% for RCP 4.5 and 21% for RCP 8.5, and an increase in annual temperature of 2.5°C for RCP 4.5 and 4.3°C for RCP 8.5, averaged across the GOA. Scenarios with perturbed climate and glaciers predict annual GOA‐wide runoff to increase by 9% for RCP4.5/ELA200 case and 14% for the RCP8.5/ELA400 case. The glacier runoff decreased by 14% for RCP4.5/ELA200 and by 34% for the RCP8.5/ELA400 case. Intermodel variability in annual runoff was found to be approximately twice the variability in precipitation input. Additionally, there are significant changes in runoff partitioning and increases in snowpack runoff are dominated by increases in rain‐on‐snow events. We present results aggregated across the entire GOA and also for individual watersheds to illustrate the range in hydrologic regime changes and explore the sensitivities of these results by independently perturbing only climate forcings and only glacier cover.

Alaska, British Columbia, Yukon↗