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USGS2020

Time-series model, statistical methods, and software documentation for R–QWTREND—An R package for analyzing trends in stream-water quality

As part of a U.S. Geological Survey water-quality study started in 2018, in cooperation with the International Joint Commission, North Dakota Department of Environmental Quality, and Minnesota Pollution Control Agency, a publicly available software package called R–QWTREND was developed for analyzing trends in stream-water quality. The R–QWTREND package is a collection of functions written in R, an open source language and a general environment for statistical computing and graphics. The package uses a parametric time-series model to express logarithmically transformed concentration in terms of flow-related variability, trend, and serially correlated model errors. Flow-related variability captures natural variability in concentration on the basis of concurrent and antecedent streamflow. The trend identifies systematic changes in concentration in terms of potential step trends, piecewise monotonic trends, or user-specified trends. Maximum likelihood estimation is used to estimate model parameters and determine the best-fit trend model. This report describes the time-series model and statistical methodology behind R–QWTREND and provides formal documentation for installing and using the package.

Open-File Report↗

USGS2020

seawaveQ—An R package providing a model and utilities for analyzing trends in chemical concentrations in streams with a seasonal wave (seawave) and adjustment for streamflow (Q) and other ancillary variables, version 2.0.0

The seawaveQ R package provides functionality and help to fit a parametric regression model, SEAWAVE-Q, to pesticide concentration data from stream-water samples to assess trends. The model incorporates the strong seasonality and high degree of censoring common in pesticide data, and users can incorporate numerous ancillary variables such as streamflow anomalies. The model is fitted to pesticide data using maximum likelihood methods for censored data and is robust in terms of pesticide, stream location, and degree of censoring of the concentration data. This R package standardizes this methodology for trend analysis, documents the code, and provides help and tutorial information. In previous investigations, the SEAWAVE-Q model assumed a linear trend across the period analyzed. For short trend periods, this assumption of a linear trend is adequate. However, as the period of record analyzed becomes longer, the assumption of linearity is problematic because of changes in pesticide regulation and use, some of which can be abrupt. In this update to the model, a restricted cubic spline option was added for long trend periods. This option allows for more flexibility in the time component of the model. Bootstrap functionality is included to determine statistical significance. Model results with the new restricted cubic spline option are compared to the linear trend option for two pesticide-site combinations.

Open-File Report↗

USGS2004

Trends in streamflow and comparisons with instream flows in the lower Puyallup River basin, Washington

The Puyallup Tribe of Indians is interested in better understanding the water resources of the lower Puyallup River Basin in order to ensure sufficient water to meet Tribal and hatchery needs and make future water-resource decisions. The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Puyallup Tribe, conducted a study to identify trends in streamflow in the lower Puyallup River Basin and to compare streamflows in the Puyallup River with regulatory minimum instream flows. Daily mean streamflow, monthly mean streamflow for October, and annual mean streamflow records from 1980 through 2001 for two gaging stations on the lower Puyallup River and one each on Clarks Creek and Swan Creek in the lower Puyallup River Basin were analyzed for temporal trends. Daily mean streamflow records were divided into data sets for the wet period (November through June) and the dry period (July through October) for analysis. Annual precipitation records from three National Weather Service stations and ground-water-level records from five wells in the lower Puyallup River Basin were analyzed to determine possible relations with streamflow. Daily mean streamflow, daily minimum streamflow, and unit-streamflow records for the Puyallup River for 1991 and 1992 were evaluated for the instream-flow analysis. Significant temporal trends were not identified in daily mean streamflow records from the Puyallup River, Clarks Creek, or Swan Creek for the period of analysis. Trend analysis of monthly mean streamflow records for October at two gaging stations on the Puyallup River also indicated no significant trends for the period of analysis. Temporal trends were not evident in precipitation data from weather stations in the basin. A trend of decreasing depth to ground water with time (1995 through 1997) was identified in one well (20N/04E-34G01). This well is drilled to about 550 feet below land surface, and variations in water levels at this depth likely do not affect streamflow in the Puyallup River. Data limitations prevented the evaluation of possible correlations between streamflow in the Puyallup River and water use and land use in the study basin. Daily mean, daily minimum, and unit-streamflow values were evaluated to determine how each measure of streamflow compared with instream-flow values. The occurrence of excursions (streamflow below the instream-flow value) was greatest when unit-streamflow values were compared with instream-flow values. The use of daily mean streamflow records may underestimate the occurrence of excursions under certain streamflow conditions. The unit-streamflow hydrograph for the Puyallup River at Puyallup exhibits a distinct, regular pattern. The hydrograph closely mimics the hydrograph at Lake Tapps Diversion, on the White River, a tributary of the Puyallup River, which is the outflow from a power plant, suggesting that the power-plant outflow affects streamflow in the Puyallup River. Streamflow entering Lake Tapps through the White River Canal does not exhibit the same pattern as the Puyallup River or diversion. The influence of the White River Canal on streamflow in the Puyallup River appears to be obscured by operation of the Lake Tapps Diversion.

Washington↗

USGS2005

Streamflow and water-quality trends of the Rio Chama and Rio Grande, northern and central New Mexico, water years 1985 to 2002

The City of Albuquerque plans to divert San Juan-Chama Project water from the Rio Grande for potable water use. This report examines streamflow and water-quality trends in the Rio Chama and the Rio Grande for water years 1985 to 2002 following the implementation of reservoir storage agreements in northern and central New Mexico. Streamflow/water-quality stations used for this study include the Rio Grande stations of Taos, Otowi, San Felipe, and Albuquerque and the Rio Chama station of Chamita. Water years 1985 to 2002 were a period of larger than average precipitation and streamflow compared to the stations. historical averages. Annual precipitation and streamflow trended downward during the study period because of a drought during 1999 to 2002. Streamflow in the Rio Chama and Rio Grande was divided into three distinct seasonal periods that corresponded to natural and anthropogenic influences: fall/winter baseflow (November through February), snowmelt runoff (March through June), and the irrigation/monsoon (July through October) seasons. A calcium bicarbonate water type was evident at all study area stations on the Rio Chama and Rio Grande. Specific conductance increased downstream, but alkalinity and pH did not substantially change in the downstream direction. Nearly all nitrogen and phosphorous concentrations were less than 1 milligram per liter for all stations. Median trace-element concentrations and maximum radionuclide concentrations did not exceed drinking-water standards. Anthropogenic compounds were infrequently detected in the Rio Chama and Rio Grande, and concentrations did not exceed drinking-water standards. Water quality in the Rio Chama and Rio Grande varied spatially and temporally during water years 1985 to 2002. Specific conductance increased downstream in the Rio Grande during the fall/winter baseflow and snowmelt runoff seasons but was similar at the Taos, Otowi, and San Felipe stations during the irrigation/monsoon season. This similarity was a result of the release of stored water from Abiquiu Reservoir and Cochiti Lake, which masked the natural influences that increased specific conductance in the downstream direction during the other seasons. During all seasons, pH decreased and major ion concentrations remained stable at the Albuquerque station compared with the San Felipe station, but no single influence could be identified that caused these conditions. Manganese and uranium concentrations at the Otowi and San Felipe stations were largest during the fall/winter baseflow and smallest during the snowmelt runoff, indicating that ground-water inflows likely influenced these concentrations. Water-quality temporal trends were evaluated for selected constituents during the study period and during the individual seasons. Downward trends in major ion concentrations were similar in magnitude at the Taos and Otowi stations, indicating that an upstream influence and (or) the downward trend in annual precipitation was the main reason(s) for these trends. The stations most affected by reservoirs, Chamita and San Felipe, were the only stations at which downward trends in major ions were apparent for flow-adjusted concentrations but not for seasonally correlated low-adjusted concentrations, which indicates fewer seasonal differences at these stations due to reservoir operations.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

USGS2007

Nutrient and Suspended-Sediment Transport and Trends in the Columbia River and Puget Sound Basins, 1993-2003

This study focused on three areas that might be of interest to water-quality managers in the Pacific Northwest: (1) annual loads of total nitrogen (TN), total phosphorus (TP) and suspended sediment (SS) transported through the Columbia River and Puget Sound Basins, (2) annual yields of TN, TP, and SS relative to differences in landscape and climatic conditions between subbasin catchments (drainage basins), and (3) trends in TN, TP, and SS concentrations and loads in comparison to changes in landscape and climatic conditions in the catchments. During water year 2000, an average streamflow year in the Pacific Northwest, the Columbia River discharged about 570,000 pounds per day of TN, about 55,000 pounds per day of TP, and about 14,000 tons per day of SS to the Pacific Ocean. The Snake, Yakima, Deschutes, and Willamette Rivers contributed most of the load discharged to the Columbia River. Point-source nutrient loads to the catchments (almost exclusively from municipal wastewater treatment plants) generally were a small percentage of the total in-stream nutrient loads; however, in some reaches of the Spokane, Boise, Walla Walla, and Willamette River Basins, point sources were responsible for much of the annual in-stream nutrient load. Point-source nutrient loads generally were a small percentage of the total catchment nutrient loads compared to nonpoint sources, except for a few catchments where point-source loads comprised as much as 30 percent of the TN load and as much as 80 percent of the TP load. The annual TN and TP loads from point sources discharging directly to the Puget Sound were about equal to the annual loads from eight major tributaries. Yields of TN, TP, and SS generally were greater in catchments west of the Cascade Range. A multiple linear regression analysis showed that TN yields were significantly (p < 0.05) and positively related to precipitation, atmospheric nitrogen load, fertilizer and manure load, and point-source load, and were negatively related to average slope. TP yields were significantly related positively to precipitation, and point-source load and SS yields were significantly related positively to precipitation. Forty-eight percent of the available monitoring sites for TN had significant trends in concentration (2 increasing, 19 decreasing), 32 percent of the available sites for TP had significant trends in concentration (7 increasing, 9 decreasing), and 40 percent of the available sites for SS had significant trends in concentration (4 increasing, 15 decreasing). The trends in load followed a similar pattern, but with fewer sites showing significant trends. The results from this study indicate that inputs from nonpoint sources of nutrients probably have decreased over time in many of the catchments. Despite the generally small contribution of point-source nutrient loads, they still may have been partially responsible for the significant decreasing trends for nutrients at sites where the total point-source nutrient loads to the catchments equaled a substantial proportion of the in-stream load.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

USGS2014

Trend analysis and selected summary statistics of annual mean streamflow for 38 selected long-term U.S. Geological Survey streamgages in Texas, water years 1916-2012

In 2013, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) operated more than 500 continuous streamgages (streamflow-gaging stations) in Texas. In cooperation with the Texas Water Development Board, the USGS evaluated mean annual streamflow data for 38 selected streamgages that were active as of water year 2012. The 38 streamgages have annual mean streamflow data considered natural and unregulated. Collected annual mean streamflow data for a single streamgage ranged from 49 to 97 cumulative years. The nonparametric Kendall’s tau statistical test was used to detect monotonic trends in annual mean streamflow over time. The monotonic trend analysis detected 2 statistically significant upward trends (0.01 one-tail significance), 1 statistically significant downward trend (0.01 one-tail significance level), and 35 instances of no statistically significant trend (0.02 two-tailed significance level). The Theil slope estimate of a regression slope of annual mean streamflow with time was computed for the three stations where trends in streamflow were detected: 2 increasing Theil slopes were measured (+0.40 and +2.72 cubic feet per second per year, respectively), and 1 decreasing Theil slope (–0.24 cubic feet per second per year) was measured. Selected summary statistics (L-moments) and estimates of respective sampling variances were computed for the 35 streamgages lacking statistically significant trends. From the L-moments and estimated sampling variances, weighted means or regional values were computed for each L-moment. An example application is included demonstrating how the L-moments could be used to evaluate the magnitude and frequency of annual mean streamflow.

Texas↗

USGS2019

Flood-frequency comparison from 1995 to 2016 and trends in peak streamflow in Arkansas, water years 1930–2016

In 2016, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers and the Federal Emergency Management Agency, began a study in Arkansas to investigate possible increasing trends in annual peak streamflow data and the possible resulting increase in the annual exceedance probability flood (AEPF) predictions. Temporal trends of peak streamflow were investigated at 15 selected streamgages on unregulated streams in Arkansas having 30 or more years of peak streamflow data through the 2016 water year. For the period of record at each streamgage, the Mann-Kendall trend test indicated that 14 of the 15 streamgages had no statistically significant peak streamflow trends and 1 streamgage had a statistically significant decreasing peak streamflow trend. Visual examination of the locally estimated scatterplot smoothing technique trend lines of the peak streamflow data indicated a possible increasing peak streamflow trend at 8 of the 15 streamgages since the 1990s. A sequential series analysis of the 1-percent AEPF at each of the 15 selected streamgages was completed by selecting an initial subset of the oldest peak streamflow data from each site to estimate the initial 1-percent AEPF. This initial peak streamflow data subset was subsequently appended with 10-year increments of additional peak streamflow data until the full period of peak streamflow data was analyzed. The maximum increase in the 1-percent AEPF was 113 percent, and the maximum decrease was 31.9 percent. Percentage differences between the AEPFs derived from regional regression equations presented in the 1995 and 2016 Arkansas flood-frequency reports were compared. The average percentage differences for the 74 selected locations indicate that the 4-, 2-, 1-, and 0.2-percent AEPFs computed using the 2016 regional regression equations were higher by 3.52, 5.10, 8.59, and 13.31 percent, respectively (25-, 50-, 100-, and 500-year recurrence interval floods), than the same percentage AEPFs computed using the 1995 regional regression equations. The average percentage differences between the 1995 and 2016 AEPFs for the 10-percent AEPF (10-year recurrence interval flood) resulted in 2016 AEPF predictions being 0.41 percent higher. For the 50- and 20-percent AEPFs (2- and 5-year recurrence interval floods), the 2016 AEPFs were less than the 1995 AEPFs by 2.53 and 0.31 percent, respectively.

Arkansas↗

USGS2020

Updating data inputs, assessing trends, and evaluating a method to estimate probable high groundwater levels in selected areas of Massachusetts

A method to estimate the probable high groundwater level in Massachusetts, excluding Cape Cod and the islands, was developed in 1981. The method uses a groundwater measurement from a test site, groundwater measurements from an index well, and a distribution of high groundwater levels from wells in similar geologic and topographic settings. The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Massachusetts Department of Environmental Protection, conducted an update to the Frimpter method for estimating the probable high groundwater levels in Massachusetts. The study evaluated the potential changes to the method resulting from four decades of additional groundwater-level data and the expansion of the network of wells for monitoring groundwater levels. The differences and potential benefits of daily, as opposed to monthly, measurements in the application of the method were examined because of the increased availability of high-frequency (subdaily) groundwater-level data. The study also considered long-term trends in groundwater levels that may alter the accuracy of the method. Finally, the accuracy of the estimated high groundwater levels was evaluated, and improved implementation guidance was prepared. For this study, groundwater levels in 153 wells in Massachusetts and surrounding States with records with lengths of 16 to 78 years were analyzed. The highest recorded groundwater levels ranged from 1.2 feet (ft) above land surface (flooded conditions) to 45.8 ft below land surface, with a median of 4.6 ft below land surface. The maximum annual groundwater-level range was 1.4 to 17.9 ft, with a median of 5.5 ft. The within-month variation, maximum annual groundwater-level range, and highest recorded groundwater level were computed using daily mean groundwater-level values from 28 wells with continuous records. The use of daily data resulted in larger maximum annual groundwater-level ranges (0.02 to 2.94 ft larger, with a median of 0.58 ft larger) and shallower highest-recorded groundwater levels (0.0 to 1.60 ft shallower, with a median of 0.18 ft shallower) than computations based on monthly measurements in the same wells. Statistical tests showed moderate to strong evidence of trends in measurements of both high and low groundwater levels within most of the periods during which water levels were analyzed. High groundwater levels rose beneath the land surface at most sites during four of the six periods used for analysis (1966–2015, 1986–2015, 1991–2010, and 1981–2010). Low groundwater levels also increased at many sites during most of the periods evaluated, but this trend was less widespread than the similar trends in high groundwater levels, and the trend was to deeper low groundwater levels at more sites than the trend to deeper high groundwater levels. There was no clear trend in annual groundwater-level ranges at most sites during the six periods analyzed. In general, the Frimpter method predicted shallower (higher) high groundwater levels than were observed but correctly classified sites according to their suitabilities for unmounded septic systems. The mean error of the predictions (difference between the estimated and observed groundwater levels) ranged from −3.23 ft to −1.40 ft for various approaches to estimating the groundwater-level range and selecting an index well. The method correctly classified 83 to 86 percent of monitoring-well sites according to their suitability for an unmounded septic system for many approaches to estimating the annual groundwater-level range and selecting an index well. The approach selected for estimating the annual groundwater-level range and selecting an index well will depend upon the importance of an accurate estimate of the high groundwater level as compared to the importance of an estimated high groundwater level that is less likely to be exceeded.

Connecticut, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, Rhode I↗

USGS2020

Discharge and dissolved-solids characteristics and trends of Snake River above Jackson Lake at Flagg Ranch, Wyoming, 1986–2018

The headwaters of the Snake River are in the mountains of northwestern Wyoming. Maintaining the recognized high quality of water in Grand Teton National Park is a National Park Service (NPS) priority. To characterize and understand the water resources of Grand Teton National Park, the NPS established a monitoring program to monitor the quality of area surface waters. Beginning in 2006, water was sampled by the NPS and analyzed for a range of chemical species at the Snake River above Jackson Lake at Flagg Ranch streamgage 13010065 (hereafter referred to as “Snake River at Flagg Ranch”), a site where the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) previously sampled and analyzed water from 1986 through 2004. The USGS, in cooperation with the NPS, evaluated water-quality data collected by both entities to determine if discharge and total dissolved solids (referred to as dissolved solids) have changed in the Snake River at the Flagg Ranch. To understand potential changes with time in dissolved solids, discharge was analyzed between January 1986 and December 2018, which corresponds with the time period when water-quality data were collected. Mean annual discharge varied during this time, with high, low, mean, and median flows generally increasing from 1986 through 1998, decreasing through 2005, and then generally increasing through 2018. Combining water-quality data collected by the USGS and NPS provides a longer, more complete dataset for analyses. During the period of time when NPS was the sampling agency, specific conductance data were collected, but dissolved-solids data were not. The specific conductance data from both agencies were evaluated to determine if combining the data was justified. The interquartile ranges of data collected by both agencies are similar, and rapid, large changes in values during the period of transition between USGS and NPS sampling do not occur. The USGS and NPS datasets are not statistically different in the spring, summer, or fall, but are statistically different in the winter. The winter differences could be a function of the lack of wintertime NPS sampling, which excludes higher-concentration, lower-discharge data or a function of changes in the actual concentration in the stream. Although there is some difference in the winter datasets, the similarity in sampling methods and general overall data characteristics justifies combining the data for trend analyses. Because the dissolved-solids parameter is useful for managers, it is often calculated from specific conductance using a linear regression model when dissolved-solids data are absent. For this study, creating a modeled dataset of dissolved solids for the NPS data collection period of time provided a longer, more complete dataset of dissolved-solids concentrations. The concentrations of dissolved solids over time are identified by season and indicate that samples collected in the fall and winter have higher concentrations than samples collected in spring and summer. Specifically, the mean dissolved-solids concentrations in fall and winter are around 188 milligrams per liter (mg/L), whereas the mean concentrations are around 130 mg/L in spring and summer. This difference is generally attributed to the dilution of spring and summer samples by snowmelt generated runoff during the high-flow period of the year. Trend analyses of dissolved-solids concentrations and loads indicate that an upward trend in concentration from 1986 to 2018 is likely, and a downward trend in load is highly likely. Comparing 1986 to 2018, dissolved-solids concentration is estimated to have increased by 2.25 mg/L (1.4 percent). During that same period, the dissolved-solids load is estimated to have decreased 11.8 million kilograms per year (12-percent decrease). This decrease is consistent with the estimated decrease in annual mean of daily mean discharge. Because 10 percent of the total change in dissolved-solids load is related to a change in the concentration-discharge relationship and 2 percent is related to changes in discharge, the decreased load is related less to changes in discharge and more to landscape scale processes that are affecting the concentration-discharge relationship. As noted above, the data collected by the USGS and NPS are generally comparable with regards to sampling and analytical methods, and data collected by both agencies were used as one dataset for trend analyses. The current NPS sampling schedule, however, is creating a dataset biased towards lower concentration dissolved-solids data, which occurs during higher summer flows, by only sampling during April through November. From 1986 to 2018, the percentage of NPS samples is small enough that the effect on trends is expected to be minimal. Because of the importance of low flow (winter season) data, it is likely that an April through November sampling regime may affect the ability to detect trends or determine seasonality in the future. Collection of winter data in particular is important based on the findings that the changes in the modeled concentration-discharge relationship over time have been most pronounced during the winter (represented by February) months.

Wyoming↗

USGS2021

Regression relations and long-term water-quality constituent concentrations, loads, yields, and trends in the North Fork Ninnescah River, south-central Kansas, 1999–2019

Cheney Reservoir, in south-central Kansas, is the primary water supply for the city of Wichita, Kansas. The North Fork Ninnescah River is the largest tributary to Cheney Reservoir and contributes about 70 percent of the inflow. The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the City of Wichita, has been continuously monitoring water quality (including water temperature, specific conductance, pH, dissolved oxygen, and turbidity) on the North Fork Ninnescah River upstream from Cheney Reservoir (U.S. Geological Survey site 07144780) since November 1998. Continued data collection would be beneficial to update and describe changing water-quality conditions in the drainage basin and in the reservoir over time. Regression models were developed to describe relations between discretely measured constituent concentrations and continuously measured physical properties. The models updated in this report include total suspended solids (TSS), suspended-sediment concentration (SSC), nitrate plus nitrite, nitrate, orthophosphate (OP), total phosphorus (TP), and total organic carbon (TOC). Daily computed concentrations for TSS, TP, and nitrate plus nitrite during 1999–2019 were compared with Cheney Reservoir Task Force (CRTF) goals for base-flow and runoff conditions. CRTF goals for base-flow concentrations were exceeded more frequently (70 to 99.9 percent of the time) than runoff goals (0 to 11 percent of the time). Except for 2012, annual mean TSS concentrations exceeded the base-flow goal every year. Nitrate plus nitrite and TP annual mean concentrations exceeded the base-flow goals every year. TSS and nitrate plus nitrite annual mean concentrations during runoff conditions never exceeded the CRTF runoff goal. TP annual mean concentrations during runoff conditions only exceeded the CRTF runoff goal during 2002. Sedimentation is progressively reducing the storage capacity of Cheney Reservoir. During 1999–2019, 55 percent of the computed suspended-sediment load was transported during the top 1 percent of loading days (76 days); 22 percent of the total load was transported in the top 10 loading days, indicating that substantial parts of suspended-sediment loads continue to be delivered during disproportionately small periods in Cheney Reservoir. Successful sediment management efforts necessitate reduction techniques that account for these large load events. Flow-normalized concentrations and fluxes were computed during 1999 through 2019 using Weighted Regressions on Time, Discharge, and Season (WRTDS) statistical models and WRTDS bootstrap tests. Flow-normalized concentrations of TSS, SSC, OP, TP, and TOC had upward trend probabilities; conversely, nitrate plus nitrite had a downward trend. Flow-normalized fluxes for OP, TP, and TOC had an upward trend. No discernible patterns were identified for flow-normalized flux of TSS or suspended sediment. Nitrate plus nitrite flow-normalized flux indicated a downward trend. Flow-normalized concentrations for TSS were less than the CRTF long-term goal of 100 milligrams per liter (mg/L), but the upward trend indicated the long-term goal may be exceeded if no changes are made. Flow-normalized TP concentrations exceeded the CRTF long-term goal (0.1 mg/L) and were assigned a very likely upward trend. Flow-normalized nitrate plus nitrite concentrations exceeded the CRTF long-term goal of 1.2 mg/L during the beginning of the study period, then were less than the CRTF goal for the remainder of the study; however, during 2010–19 flow-normalized concentrations increased by 6 percent. Linking water-quality changes to causal factors requires consistent monitoring before, during, and after changes; this presents challenges related to length and frequency of data collection and available concomitant land-use and conservation practice data. As such, attribution of water-quality trends to land-use changes or conservation practices was not possible for this study because of a lack of land-use and conservation practice data. Additionally, because precipitation frequency and intensity are projected to continue to increase in the Great Plains region, accounting for extreme episodic events may be an important consideration in future sediment and nutrient load reduction plans.

Kansas↗

USGS1994

Sources of trends in water-quality data for selected streams in Texas, 1975-89 water years

Sources of trends in water-quality data for selected streams in Texas for the 1975-89 water years were investigated in this study. The investigation of sources was confined to distinct geographic patterns in the trend indicators for one constituent or for a group of related constituents. The probable source of trend patterns in nutrients and measures of oxygen in the Trinity River Basin was changes in the wastewater treatment facilities in the Dallas-Fort Worth metropolitan area. A pattern of increased concentrations of inorganic constituents in the upper Colorado River Basin resulted from emergency releases of water from the Natural Darn Lake, a salinity control structure. Trend patterns in inorganic constituents in the Rio Grande Basin were a result of increasing concentrations in the Pecos River and, to a lesser extent, the Rio Grande above the Amistad Reservoir, combined with the effects of reservoir regulation. A pattern of increasing concentrations of organic plus ammonia nitrogen and ammonia nitrogen was detected for the 1975-86 water years for stations with low concentrations (generally less than 5 milligrams per liter) of these nitrogen species. The trends were no longer evident when the period of trend analysis was extended to the 1989 water year. A positive bias in the data caused by the addition of mercuric chloride tablets to preserve nutrient samples during 1980-86 was the probable source of this trend pattern. A pattern of increasing concentrations in dissolved sulfate in the eastern part of the State was a result of a positive bias in the analytical results of a turbidimetric method of sulfate analysis. The source of a statewide pattern of increased pH in streams could not be identified.

Texas↗

USGS1998

Water-quality trends in the Santa Ana River at MWD Crossing and below Prado Dam, Riverside County, California

The Santa Ana River, located in an extensively urbanized basin, drains about 2,670 square miles near Los Angeles, California. Almost all flow in the river, about 200,000 acre-feet annually, is diverted to ponds where it infiltrates and recharges underlying aquifers. About 2 million people are dependent on these aquifers for water supply. In recent years, base flow in the river has increased as a result of increased discharge of treated municipal wastewater, and high flows have increased as a result of increase precipitation and urbanization. Trends in water quality were calculated for two sites?at the Metropolitan Water District (MWD) Crossing (an upstream site) and below Prado Dam (a downstream site)?using the computer program ESTREND. Water-quality data for these sites were collected by the U.S. Geological Survey from 1969 to 1995. At MWD Crossing, flow-adjusted downward trends of -1.1 microsiemens per centimeter (iS/cm) per year and -1.6 milligrams per liter (mg/L) per year were calculated for specific conductance and dissolved solids, respectively. In contrast, a flow-adjusted upward trends of 2.2 iS/cm per year for dissolved solids was calculated for the Santa Ana River below Prado Dam. Specific conductance and dissolved solids in the Santa Ana River below Prado Dam had downward unadjusted trends (not adjusted for streamflow) of -8.3 iS/cm per year and -6.0 mg/L per year, respectively. For the Santa Ana River below Prado Dam, downward unadjusted trends were calculated for ammonia (-0.04 mg/L per year) and total organic carbon (0.19 mg/L per year); flow-adjusted upward trends were calculated for nitrite plus nitrate (0.15 mg/L per year), total dissolved nitrogen (0.39 mg/L per year), and orthophosphate (0.03 mg/L per year). Statistically significant unadjusted and flow-adjusted trends were not obtained for organic nitrogen, phosphorus, and dissolved organic carbon. Data for selected trace elements and organic compounds collected between 1970-94 also are summarized in this report.

Water-Resources Investigations Report↗

USGS2024

Characterization of the structural–stratigraphic and reservoir controls on the occurrence of gas hydrates in the Eileen Gas Hydrate Trend, Alaska North Slope

One of the most studied permafrost-associated gas hydrate accumulations in Arctic Alaska is the Eileen Gas Hydrate Trend. This study provides a detailed re-examination of the Eileen Gas Hydrate Trend with a focus on the gas hydrate accumulation in the western part of the Prudhoe Bay Unit. This integrated analysis of downhole well log data and published geophysical data has provided new insight on structural, stratigraphic, and reservoir controls on the occurrence of gas hydrates in the Eileen Gas Hydrate Trend. This study revealed the relatively complex nature of the gas hydrate occurrences in the Eileen Gas Hydrate Trend, with gas hydrates present in a series of coarsening upward, laterally pervasive, mostly fine-grained sand beds exhibiting high gas hydrate saturations. Most of the gas hydrate-bearing reservoirs in the Eileen Gas Hydrate Trend are laterally segmented into distinct northwest- to southeast-trending fault blocks, occur in a combination of structural–stratigraphic traps, and are only partially hydrate filled with distinct down-dip water contacts. These findings suggest that the traditional parts of a petroleum system (i.e., reservoir, gas source, gas migration, and geologic timing of the system formation) also control the occurrence of gas hydrates in the Eileen Gas Hydrate Trend.

Alaska↗

USGS2020

Comparative performance and trend of remotely sensed phenology and productivity metrics across the Western United States

Vegetation phenology and productivity play a crucial role in surface energy balance, plant and animal distribution, and animal movement and habitat use and can be measured with remote sensing metrics including start of season (SOS), peak instantaneous rate of green-up date (PIRGd), peak of season (POS), end of season (EOS), and integrated vegetation indices. However, for most metrics, we do not yet understand the agreement of remotely sensed data products with near-surface observations. We also need summaries of changes over time, spatial distribution, variability, and consistency in remote sensing dataset metrics for vegetation timing and quality. We compare metrics from 10 leading remote sensing datasets against a network of PhenoCam near-surface cameras throughout the western United States from 2002 to 2014. Most phenology metrics representing a date (SOS, PIRGd, POS, and EOS), rather than a duration (length of spring, length of growing season), better agreed with near-surface metrics but results varied by dataset, metric, and land cover, with absolute value of mean bias ranging from 0.38 (PIRGd) to 37.92 days (EOS). Datasets had higher agreement with PhenoCam metrics in shrublands, grasslands, and deciduous forests than in evergreen forests. Phenology metrics had higher agreement than productivity metrics, aside from a few datasets in deciduous forests. Using two datasets covering the period 1982–2016 that best agreed with PhenoCam metrics, we analyzed changes over time to growing seasons. Both datasets exhibited substantial spatial heterogeneity in the direction of phenology trends. Variability of metrics increased over time in some areas, particularly in the Southwest. Approximately 60% of pixels had consistent trend direction between datasets for SOS, POS, and EOS, with the direction varying by location. In all ecoregions except Mediterranean California, EOS has become later. This study comprehensively compares remote sensing datasets across multiple growing season metrics and discusses considerations for applied users to inform their data choices. des indicators of vegetation timing and quality through metrics such as start of season (SOS), peak instantaneous rate of green-up date (PIRGd), peak of season (POS), end of season (EOS), and integrated vegetation indices. Few comparisons guide users in dataset selection, examine a large spatial extent, and include multiple metrics. This study compares metrics from 10 leading remote sensing datasets against a network of PhenoCam near-surface cameras throughout the Western United States from 2002-2014. Correlation (R2) and mean bias varied substantially by dataset, metric, and land cover. The closest association with PhenoCam measured phenology metrics represented a date (SOS, PIRGd, POS, and EOS) rather than a duration (length of spring, length of growing season), with R2 of individual datasets ranging from 0.03 (SOS) – 0.55 (PIRGd), and absolute value of mean bias ranging from 0.38 (PIRGd) – 37.92 days (EOS). Datasets had higher agreement with PhenoCam metrics in shrublands, grasslands, and deciduous/broadleaf forests than in evergreen forests. Productivity metrics agreed worse than phenology metrics, though some datasets showed high correlations in deciduous/broadleaf forests. Using the two datasets that agreed best with PhenoCam metrics and covered 1982-2016, we conducted a trend analysis to study changes to growing seasons. Trends in phenology exhibited substantial spatial heterogeneity in the direction of trend for both datasets. Variability of metrics increased over time in some areas, particularly in the Southwest. Approximately 60% of pixels had consistent trend direction (both earlier and later) for SOS, POS, and EOS. In all ecoregions except Mediterranean California EOS trended toward a later date. This study provides a comprehensive comparison of remote sensing datasets across many important phenology and productivity metrics and discusses considerations for users to make informed decisions about their data choices.

Arizona, California, Colorado, Idaho, Montana, New↗

USGS2025

Analysis of trends in terrestrial vegetation at Mediterranean Coast Network Parks: Channel Islands National Park

The five islands comprising Channel Islands National Park (CHIS) experience natural gradients in temperature and moisture driven by ocean currents. Additionally, the islands were used as ranchlands and military land before becoming a national park, resulting in widespread erosion and vegetation change. As a result, CHIS spans gradients in climate as well as ranching duration and time since animal removal. Vegetation monitoring was initiated in 1984 on three islands (Anacapa, Santa Barbara, San Miguel), in 1990 on Santa Rosa Island, and in 1998 on Santa Cruz Island, with the goal of documenting the long-term response of island vegetation to ranch animal removal and climate fluctuations. Since that time, monitoring has documented the range of natural fluctuation in island environments over decades and provided insights into vegetation change in ecosystems unencumbered by ongoing development. Long-term vegetation monitoring at CHIS is therefore a rare example of an ecosystem experiment that demonstrates the results of management actions and serves as a baseline for land managers and scientists worldwide. Terrestrial vegetation data collected between 1984 and 2018 were modeled to estimate trends over time and to characterize relationships with covariates related to site characteristics, nonnative mammal removal programs, and water balance metrics. Data were analyzed for trends in vegetation cover, woody plant density, and plant community diversity grouped by life form and nativity across all islands and within individual islands, as well as for several individual species that dominate plant communities or present challenges to native plant recovery. In all, a total of 162 trend and covariate models were tested in this study, the details of which are provided in this report. Briefly, results reflect a decline in nonnative annual disturbance-thriving species with the reduction in animal grazing and trampling. Increasing trends were observed in native shrub density and native shrub recruitment density, as well as native shrub cover across all islands averaged together and on Santa Cruz Island. However, opposite trends were seen on the smaller islands of Santa Barbara and Anacapa, where increasing seabird activity may be damaging vegetation. Further results indicate the importance of soil moisture, relative humidity, fog, precipitation, site exposure, and solar radiation for vegetation patterns and trends. In many instances, there are apparent interacting effects of environmental variables with trends related to nonnative mammal removal and site location. Vegetation patterns in space and time emerge in the dataset as nuanced responses to interacting drivers.

Calfornia↗

USGS2002

Trends in midwinter counts of bald eagles in the contiguous United States, 1986-2000

We estimated statewide, regional, and national trends in counts of Bald Eagles ( Haliaeetus leucocephalus ) along selected routes in the contiguous United States during midwinter, 1986-2000. Each January, several hundred observers collected data as part of a survey initiated by the National Wildlife Federation in 1979. To analyze these data, we used only those routes surveyed consistently in at least four years and on which at least four eagles were counted in a single year. We included surveys conducted during fog or precipitaion after determining that changes in weather conditions probably did not affect trend estimates. Our final analysis, using a hierarchical mixed model, was based on 101,777 eagle sightings during 5,180 surveys of 563 routes in 42 states. In the model, fixed effects were year, region, and route-length category; the random effect was the route itself. Model-based estimates of Bald Eagle counts throughout the U.S. increased 1.9% yr -1 , but trend estimates varied by region. Estimated trends were statistically significant, and positive, in the northeastern U.S. (6.1% yr -1 ), but were not significant in other regions. The proportion of increasing counts was higher north of 40° N and east of 100° W. Trends in numbers of adults and immatures showed similar geographic patterns, but counts of adults increased at a higher rate. Overall, trends were more similar to those identified by the Christmas Bird Count than the Breeding Bird Survey. In spite of limitations, the survey is a cost-effective way to monitor wintering eagles in the lower 48 states. We discuss estimated trends in the context of increased urbanization, changed weather, and recovery from pesticide pollution.

Bird Populations↗

USGS2009

Great Lakes prey fish populations: A cross-basin overview of status and trends in 2008

Assessments of prey fishes in the Great Lakes have been conducted annually since the 1970s by the Great Lakes Science Center, sometimes assisted by partner agencies. Prey fish assessments differ among lakes in the proportion of a lake covered, seasonal timing, bottom trawl gear used, sampling design, and the manner in which the trawl is towed (across or along bottom contours). Because each assessment is unique in one or more important aspects, a direct comparison of prey fish catches among lakes is problematic. All of the assessments, however, produce indices of abundance or biomass that can be standardized to facilitate comparisons of trends among lakes and to illustrate present status of the populations. We present indices of abundance for important prey fishes in the Great Lakes standardized to the highest value for a time series within each lake: cisco ( Coregonus artedi ), bloater ( C. hoyi ), rainbow smelt ( Osmerus mordax ), and alewife ( Alosa pseudoharengus ). We also provide indices for round goby ( Neogobius melanostomus ), an invasive fish presently spreading throughout the basin. Our intent is to provide a short, informal report emphasizing data presentation rather than synthesis; for this reason we intentionally avoid use of tables and cited references. For each lake, standardized relative indices for annual biomass and density estimates of important prey fishes were calculated as the fraction relative to the largest value observed in the times series. To determine whether basin-wide trends were apparent for each species, we first ranked standardized index values within each lake. When comparing ranked index values from three or more lakes, we calculated the Kendall coefficient of concordance ( W ), which can range from 0 (complete discordance or disagreement among trends) to 1 (complete concordance or agreement among trends). The P -value for W provides the probability of agreement across the lakes. When comparing ranked index values from two lakes, we calculated the Kendall correlation coefficient (τ), which ranges from -1 (inverse association, perfect disagreement) to 1 (direct association, perfect agreement). Here, the P-value for τ provides the probability of either inverse or direct association between the lakes. First, we present trends in relative biomass of age-1 and older prey fishes to show changes in populations within each lake. Then, we present standardized indices of numerical abundance of a single age class to show changes in relative year-class strength within each lake. Indices of year-class strength reliably reflect the magnitude of the cohort size at subsequent ages. However, because of differences in survey timing across lakes, the age class that is used for each species to index year-class strength varies across lakes and, just as surveys differ among lakes, methods for determining fish age-class differ also. For Lake Superior cisco, bloater, smelt, and Lake Michigan alewife, year- class strengths are based on aged fish and age-length keys, and for all other combinations of lakes and species, age-classes are assigned based on fish length cut-offs. Our intent with this report is to provide a cross-lakes view of population trends but not to propose reasons for those trends.

Great Lakes↗

USGS1987

Trends in spawning populations of Pacific anadromous salmonids

Annual escapement records for 1968-1984 for five species of Pacific salmon-chinook ( Oncorhynchus tshawytscha ), coho ( O. kisutch ), sockeye (O. nerka ), pink ( O. gorbuscha ), and chum (O. keta )—and steelhead ( Salmo gairdneri ) were obtained from published and unpublished sources and organized in a computer database. More than 25,500 escapement records were obtained for more than 1,100 locations throughout Alaska, Washington, Idaho, Oregon, and California. Escapement trends for naturally reproducing populations for which data were available for at least 7 years from 1968 to 1984 and at least 4 years from 1975 to 1984 were analyzed by linear regression. Significant trends were observed in about 30% of the 886 populations examined. Trends were summarized by species for three geographic regions in Alaska and four in the Pacific Northwest (including California). For chinook, sockeye, and pink salmon, trends were predominantly increasing in the Alaska regions and either lacking or predominantly decreasing in most of the Pacific Northwest regions; for coho and chum salmon, trends were predominantly decreasing in one or more Alaska regions as well as in most of the Pacific Northwest regions. For steelhead, too few populations were examined to enable us to characterize trends throughout their range. Among the 657 salmonid populations excluded from the trend analysis because the data sets were incomplete, 13 (of which 2 were in Alaska) declined to zero during the period of analysis. For coho, sockeye, pink, and chum salmon and steelhead, major data gaps were revealed by a comparison of the geographic distribution of escapement records with the spawning distribution of the species. For chinook salmon, escapement records were more geographically representative of the spawning distribution.

Fish and Wildlife Technical Report↗