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Albuquerque Seismological Laboratory strategic vision

This circular presents a strategic outlook for the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Albuquerque Seismological Laboratory (ASL) for the next 10 years (2026–36). The ASL is a USGS field office in the Geological Hazards Science Center that operates portions of the Advanced National Seismic System and the Global Seismographic Network and focuses on fundamental research for instrumentation testing and data quality. The strategic outlook is categorized into two types of tasks: “Foundational Tasks” and “Aspirational Tasks.” Foundational Tasks are those that maintain the laboratory’s basic operations and services, including regional and global seismic monitoring, improving data quality, and providing instrument testing and support. A suite of Aspirational Tasks is also articulated; these can be considered priority targets of ASL that could improve ASL’s seismic monitoring capabilities and mission. Such tasks include improvements to remote stations, testing capabilities of nonseismic geophysical instruments, detection threshold monitoring, rapid aftershock deployments, and expanding seismic monitoring networks. This report was written with input from the USGS Geological Hazards Science Center, the USGS Earthquake Hazards Program (EHP), and colleagues with an interest in the work done by the ASL. Although the details of these tasks may change, this document can provide guidance on the overarching tasks at the ASL from 2026 to 2036 and an overview of the various components of the ASL and how they fit into the EHP and the Global Seismographic Network Program.

Circular

3D Converted wave reverse time migration imaging

We describe a newly developed method for recovering high-resolution images of seismic discontinuities, such as subducting slabs, in 3D. Our method makes use of converted S → P or P → S waves observed by dense arrays of seismometers to infer the locations and relative strengths of seismic discontinuities at depth in a target region. Observed direct and converted waves are backpropagated to their times of origin. The time-reversed wavefield is then separated into its constituent P and S components via the Helmholtz decomposition, and those separated wavefields are used to compute imaging functions that characterize the locations and relative strengths of seismic discontinuities. Imaging functions may be designed to use either S → P or P → S waves, so that users can target those arrivals expected to be most dominant in a given dataset. We have previously demonstrated the efficacy of our method in two dimensions, and we now present a 3D implementation of our technique which addresses the significant computational challenges posed by the size of volumetric wavefield data in three dimensions. Through a series of synthetic examples, we demonstrate that our method is capable of recovering the fine scale structure of a subducting slab given realistic station coverage and earthquake sources. We investigate optimal seismic station geometries for our technique and explore image interpretability in regions with poor data coverage. We find that linear station geometries yield more optimal, interpretable imaging functions than collections of small arrays can. We also show that our method can successfully recover bothS → P or P → S images when realistic shear earthquake sources are used, and we explore the additional computational challenges presented by the high frequency content of S waves. Our results demonstrate the potential for our technique to recover high-resolution information about subducting slabs in real-world regions, given that relatively sparse seismic arrays with only approximately 100 stations are capable of recovering interpretable imaging functions from just a few realistic earthquake sources for multiple discontinuities at significant depth in an area of approximately 400~sq~km.

Seismica

Streamflow, base flow, and ground-water recharge in the Housatonic River basin, western Massachusetts and parts of eastern New York and northwestern Connecticut

Streamflows for selected flow durations from 1 to 99 percent and the August median streamflows were estimated for 11 long-term streamflow-gaging stations in and near the study area. Estimates of streamflow and associated standard errors were determined for selected flow durations from 50 to 99 percent and the August median streamflows for 21 low-flow partial-record stations and for selected flow durations from 1 to 99 percent and the August median streamflows for two partial-record stations and seven short-term discontinued streamflow-gaging stations. Median streamflows per square mile for the 10-, 50-, and 90-percent flow durations and the August median streamflows were 3.90, 1.01, 0.185, and 0.248 cubic feet per second per square mile. Streamflows per square mile at selected flow-duration discharges between 1 and 99 percent at the 41 stations were related to basin characteristics to explain differences in streamflow characteristics. Basin characteristics included basin elevations, extent of stratified-drift deposits, land use, aspect, and underlying bedrock geology types. Most streamflow differences were positively correlated to basin elevation differences, most likely because precipitation increases with elevation, and to stratified-drift deposits, which allow more precipitation to recharge the ground water and to discharge later than do till and bedrock deposits. Mean base flow was computed from continuous records of daily mean discharge at 11 long-term streamflow-gaging stations in and near the study area. Mean annual base flow ranged from 13.4 to 24.5 inches per year. Minimum annual base flow ranged from 45 to 72 percent of mean annual rates at the 11 long-term stations, and the ratio of base flow to streamflow (base-flow index) ranged from 0.55 to 0.80. Base-flow durations between 1 and 99 percent were calculated from streamflow records at the 11 long-term streamflow-gaging stations. Base flow accounted for 45.5 to 85.0 percent of total annual streamflow at the 1- and 99-percent flow durations. Ground-water-recharge rates were computed from continuous records of daily mean discharge at 11 long-term streamflow-gaging stations in and near the study area. Mean annual ground-water-recharge rates ranged from 17.5 to 22.4 inches per year at 10 of the 11 long-term stations. Mean annual ground-water-recharge rates ranged from 2 to 7 inches per year higher than base flow. Minimum annual ground-water-recharge rates ranged from 48 to 72 percent of mean annual ground-water-recharge rates. Mean annual potential ground-water recharge was estimated from monthly climatological data collected at six climatological stations in and near the study area. Mean potential ground-water recharge ranged from about 17.9 to 28.9 inches per year, with a median value of 22.6 inches per year. This median value compares well to that calculated by use of streamflow records at the 11 streamflow-gaging stations (20.0 inches per year). Streamflows per square mile for the 10-, 50-, and 90-percent flow durations at stations in and near the study area were similar to those computed for other unregulated long-term continuous streamflow-gaging stations in central and eastern Massachusetts. Base-flow and ground-water-recharge rates in the study area compared closely to results from other studies in southeastern Massachusetts and Rhode Island, which were based on the same computational methods.

Connecticut, Massachusetts, New York

Earthquake relocations delineate discrete a fault network and deformation corridor throughout Southeast Alaska and Southwest Yukon

Deformation in southeastern Alaska and southwest Yukon is governed by the subduction and translation of the Pacific-Yakutat plates relative to the North American plate in the St. Elias region. Despite notable historical seismicity and major regional faults, studies of the region between the Fairweather and Denali faults are complicated by glacial coverage and the remote setting. In the last decade, significant improvements have been made to the density of regional broadband seismometer networks. We relocate more than 5,000 earthquakes between 2010 and 2021 in the region of southeastern Alaska and southwestern Yukon utilizing these improved seismic networks. With reductions in catalog uncertainty, particularly in depth, we quantify the thickness of the seismogenic layer in the crust throughout the region and locate seismicity on a shallow network of upper-crustal faults. Relocated earthquakes, combined with an updated focal-mechanism catalog, permit estimating and classifying motion of active faults. This includes mapping the Totschunda-Fairweather “Connector” fault, which plays an important role in explaining regional deformation, and identifying new faults like the Kathleen Lake fault. We draw similarities between our seismic observations and simplified conceptual models of regional tectonics, which describe a dominant transpressional regime and localized slip partitioning. Our results support a hypothesis where current deformation is taking place on a well-defined and evolved network of shallow faults in the corridor between the Totschunda-Fairweather “Connector” and Denali faults.

Alaska, Yukon

Suspended-sediment characteristics in the Housatonic River Basin, western Massachusetts and parts of eastern New York and northwestern Connecticut, 1994-96

Suspended-sediment concentrations, discharges, loads, and yields were determined for eight subbasins in the Housatonic River Basin in western Massachusetts, eastern New York, and northwestern Connecticut from April 1994 through March 1996. Suspended-sediment samples were collected at three continuous-record sediment stations and at four partial-record sediment stations. Suspended-sediment concentrations in samples collected during the period of study ranged from less than 0.5 to 3,400 milligrams per liter, and concurrent streamflows ranged from 0.03 to 126 cubic feet per second per square mile at the seven stations. Median suspended-sediment concentrations in samples collected at each station ranged from 7 to 61 milligrams per liter. Median streamflows during suspended-sediment sampling ranged from 1.86 to 5.88 cubic feet per second per square mile. Instantaneous suspended-sediment yields ranged from less than 0.005 to 185 tons per day per square mile, and medians ranged from 0.03 to 1.12 tons per day per square mile at the seven stations. Total suspended-sediment loads (mass) from April 1994 through March 1996 at the continuous-record sediment stations were 11,603 tons at Housatonic River near Great Barrington, 7,929 tons at Green River, and 54,347 tons at Housatonic River near Ashley Falls. Suspended-sediment load during January 1996 at the Green River station accounted for about 54 percent of the total suspended-sediment load for the Green River during the 2-year study. Suspended-sediment load on January 19 and 20, 1996, at the Green River station accounted for about 50 percent of the January 1996 suspended-sediment load, or about 27 percent of the total suspended-sediment load during the 2-year study. This large suspended-sediment transport was the result of rainfall and snowmelt on January 19 and 20, 1996--the equivalent of a 5- to 6-inch rain storm in the Green River subbasin. Total suspended-sediment loads during the 2-year study at the partial-record sediment stations were 3,052 tons at Williams River, 1,758 tons at Ironworks Brook, and 17,927 tons at Konkapot River. Suspended-sediment yields from April 1994 through March 1996 at the continuous-record sediment stations were 21 (tons/yr)/mi 2 at Housatonic River near Great Barrington, 78 (tons/yr)/mi 2 at Green River, and 58 (tons/yr)/mi 2 at Housatonic River near Ashley Falls. Suspended-sediment yields during the 2- year study at the partial-record sediment stations were 35 (tons/yr)/mi 2 at Williams River, 78 (tons/yr)/mi 2 at Ironworks Brook, and 147 (tons/yr)/mi 2 at Konkapot River. Suspended-sediment yields were estimated for two subbasins in the Housatonic River Basin--Schenob Brook at Sheffield, a partial-record sediment station, and the area adjacent to the Housatonic River between Great Barrington and Ashley Falls. The estimate of suspended-sediment yield at Schenob Brook at Sheffield of 82 (tons/yr)/mi 2 is comparable to the yield determined for the Green River and Ironworks Brook. The estimate of suspended-sediment yield for the area adjacent to the Housatonic River between Great Barrington and Ashley Falls was 395 (tons/yr)/mi 2 . This estimated suspended-sediment yield was 2.7 to 18.8 times greater than that estimated for any of the other subbasins. Several basin and land-use characteristics thought to affect suspended-sediment transport in the subbasins were compared to the suspended-sediment yields. The characteristics that seemed to affect suspended-sediment discharge were dams, which contributes to decreased yields; Hadley, Limerick, Linlithgo, Saco, and Winooski silt loam soils (high erodibility soils), which contributes to increased yields; stratified-drift deposits, which contributes to increased yields; and agricultural and open land, which contributes to increased yields. The effect of stratified-drift deposits on suspended-sediment discharge is thought to be greater when those deposits are of glaciolacustrine (generally clay, silt, and fine sand), rather than glaciofluvial (clay, silt, sand, gravel, and cobbles) origin. The silt loam soils, glaciolacustrine deposits, and agricultural and open land are interrelated, inasmuch as the silt loam soils generally are associated with glaciolacustrine deposits and agricultural activities.

Connecticut, Massachusetts, New York

Memory and jamming in fault zone sediments

Many subsurface processes involve transitions in granular material states, from arrested to creeping to flowing. Experiments and frameworks for idealized systems reveal that granular fabrics develop during shearing, co-evolve with applied stress, and govern such transitions. We use microtomography to test whether fabrics at two San Andreas fault sites reflect slip history and whether idealized frameworks extend to nature. Near-surface sediments within the fault zone transition between deformation patterns over the seismic cycle, including bulk/localized grain re-arrangements, individual grain fracturing, and localized zones of fracturing. Aseismic and co-seismic shearing produce distinct preferred grain orientations. Co-seismic fabrics can be preserved after centuries of aseismic strain, aseismic fabrics may be overprinted, and grain size and coordination number influence the fabrics. Idealized frameworks, namely anisotropic critical state theory, frictional jamming, and material memory, can explain our observations, and fault zone sediments likely undergo cycles of memory creation and erasure that influence rigidity spatiotemporally.

California

Dynamic coupling between faulting, rifting and magmatism during 2021-2025 unrest on Reykjanes Peninsula, Iceland

Interactions among faulting, earthquakes, and eruptions are fundamental to plate tectonics and hazard forecasting yet rarely observed along mid-ocean ridges. On Iceland's Reykjanes Peninsula, seismotectonic–volcanic unrest resumed after nearly 800-year hiatus, providing an opportunity to observe these interactions during 2021–2025 activity. By integrating high-resolution seismicity, focal mechanisms, satellite geodesy, surface deformation, and eruption data, we document ∼4 m of total extension accommodated through 14 rifting episodes. The largest, in 2023, involved graben reactivation and diking, with seismic swarms and earthquake faulting that matched the surface ruptures, where strike-slip faulting preceded normal-faulting earthquakes and extension. The accrued extension was released by extension fractures triggered by magma accumulation. Long-term observations show no correlation between erupted magma volume, seismicity, and crustal extension. This highlights dynamic relation between rifting, faulting, and magmatism in transtensional settings and their implications for hazard assessment.

Reykjanes Peninsula

Magnitude and frequency of low flows in the Suwannee River Water Management District, Florida

Low-flow frequency statistics for 20 gaging stations having at least 10 years of continuous record and 31 other stations having less than 10 years of continu ous record or a series of at least two low- flow measurements are presented for unregulated streams in the Suwannee River Water Management District in north-central Florida. Statistics for the 20 continuous-record stations included are the annual and monthly minimum consecutive-day average low- flow magnitudes for 1, 3, 7, 14, and 30 consecutive days for recurrence intervals of 2, 5, 10, 20, and, for some long-term stations, 50 years, based on records available through the 1994 climatic year.Only theannual statistics are given for the 31 other stations; these are for the 7- and 30-consecutive day periods only and for recurrence intervals of 2 and 10 years only. Annual low-flow frequency statistics range from zero for many small streams to 5,500 cubic feet per second for the annual 30- consecutive-day average flow with a recurrenceinterval of 2 years for the Suwannee River near Wilcox (station 02323500). Monthly low-flow frequency statistics range from zero for many small streams to 13,800 cubic feet per second for the minimum 30-consecutive-day average flow with a 2-year recurrence interval for the month of March for the same station. Generally, low-flow characteristics of streams in the Suwannee River Water Management District are controlled by climatic, topographic, and geologic fac tors. The carbonate Floridan aquifer system underlies, or is at the surface of, the entire District. The terrane's karstic nature results in many sinkholes and springs. In some places, springs may contribute greatly to low streamflow and the contributing areas of such springs may include areas outside the presumed surface drainage area of the springs. In other places, water may enter sinkholes within a drainage basin, then reappear in springs downstream from a gage. Many of the smaller streams in the District go dry or have no flow for several months in many years. In addition to the low-flow statistics, four synoptic low-flow measurement surveys were conducted on 161 sites during 1990, 1995, and 1996. The measurements were made to provide "snapshots" of flow conditions of streams throughout the Suwannee River Water Management District. Magnitudes of low flows during the 1990 series of measurements were in the range associated with minimum 7-consecutive-day 50-year recurrence interval to the minimum 7-consecutive-day 20-year recurrence interval, except in Taylor and Dixie Counties, where the magnitudes ranged from the minimum 7-consecutive-day 5-year flow level to the7-consecutive-day 2-year flow level. The magnitudes were all greater than the minimum 7- consecutive-day 2-year flow level during 1995 and 1996. Observations of no flow were recorded at many of the sites for all four series of measurements.

Florida

Small earthquake moment magnitude and implications for frequency–magnitude scaling of injection induced earthquakes of the Raton Basin

Accurate estimation of earthquake source parameters—such as moment magnitudes, corner frequencies, and stress drops—is essential for improving seismic hazard assessments and understanding earthquake physics. In this study, moment magnitudes ( M W ) are calculated for 31,581 earthquakes associated with wastewater injection in the Raton Basin (located along the border between northern New Mexico and southern Colorado) between 2016 and 2024 using radiative transfer theory to fit coda decay envelopes. Our results show that it is feasible to estimate moment magnitudes down to M W ~1 with coda envelopes from a small local monitoring network. Significant differences were found between M W and local magnitudes ( M L ) for small earthquakes ( M < 3.0). A linear relationship was optimized to convert M L to M W : M W = 0.7 M L + 0.96 and M W = 0.73 M L + 0.99 (for the events reported by the U.S. Geological Survey), which can be applied in future studies of Raton Basin seismicity. We find that b -values calculated employing different methods and using M L are approximately 1.0, while those using M W range from 1.2 to 1.4. A larger estimate of the b -value could influence interpretations of the statistical behavior of earthquakes associated with injection and consequently seismic hazard assessments based on a magnitude–frequency distribution. The potential differences between local versus moment magnitude-based earthquake statistics should be considered in other seismically active regions.

Colorado, New Mexico

Groundwater, surface-water, and water-chemistry data, Black Mesa area, northeastern Arizona—2019–2021

The Navajo (N) aquifer is an extensive aquifer and the primary source of groundwater in the 5,400-square-mile Black Mesa area in northeastern Arizona. Water availability is an important issue in the Black Mesa area because of the arid climate, past industrial water use, and continued water requirements for municipal use by a growing population. Precipitation in the area typically ranges from less than 6 to more than 16 inches per year, depending on location. The U.S. Geological Survey water-monitoring program in the Black Mesa area began in 1971 and provides information about the long-term effects of groundwater withdrawals from the N aquifer for industrial and municipal uses. This report presents the results of data collected as part of the monitoring program in the Black Mesa area from calendar years 2020–2021 and, additionally, uses streamflow statistics from November and December 2019. The monitoring program includes measurements of (1) groundwater withdrawals (pumping), (2) groundwater levels, (3) spring discharge, (4) surface-water discharge, and (5) groundwater chemistry. In calendar year 2020, total groundwater withdrawals were estimated to be 2,680 acre-feet (acre-ft), and, in 2021, total withdrawals were estimated to be 2,570 acre-ft. Total withdrawals during 2021 were about 65 percent less than total withdrawals in 2005 because the Peabody Western Coal Company discontinued its use of water to transport coal in a coal slurry pipeline after 2005 and ceased mining operations in 2019. Owing to Navajo Nation and Hopi Reservation access restrictions during the Coronavirus pandemic, water levels were not collected from municipal wells in 2020 or 2021. Water levels measured in 2021 from wells completed in the unconfined areas of the N aquifer within the Black Mesa area showed a decline in 7 of 13 wells when compared with water levels from the prestress period (prior to 1965). The changes in water levels across all 13 wells ranged from +8.4 feet (ft) to −42.4 ft, and the median change was −0.4 ft. Water levels also showed decline in 11 of 12 wells measured in the confined area of the aquifer when compared to the prestress period. The median change for the confined area of the aquifer was −25.9 ft, with changes across all 12 wells ranging from +17.3 ft to −133.7 ft. Spring flow was measured at four springs between 2020 and 2021. Flow fluctuated during the period of record for Burro Spring and Pasture Canyon Spring, but a decreasing trend was statistically significant (p<0.05) at Moenkopi School Spring and Unnamed Spring near Dennehotso, Arizona. Discharge at Burro Spring has remained relatively constant since it was first measured in the 1980s, and discharge at Pasture Canyon Spring has fluctuated for the period of record. Continuous records of surface-water discharge in the Black Mesa area were collected from streamflow-gaging stations at the following sites: Moenkopi Wash at Moenkopi 09401260 (1976–2021), Dinnebito Wash near Sand Springs 09401110 (1993–2020), Polacca Wash near Second Mesa 09400568 (1994–2020), and Pasture Canyon Springs 09401265 (2004–2021). Median winter flows (November through February) of each winter were used as an estimate of the amount of groundwater discharge at the above-named sites. For the period of record, the median winter flows have generally remained constant at Polacca Wash and Pasture Canyon Springs, whereas a decreasing trend was observed at Moenkopi Wash and Dinnebito Wash. In 2020 and 2021, water samples were collected from a total of four springs in the Black Mesa area and analyzed for selected chemical constituents. Results from the four springs were compared with previous analyses from the same springs. Dissolved solids, chloride, and sulfate concentrations increased at Moenkopi School Spring during the more than 30 years of record at that site. Concentrations of dissolved solids and sulfate at Pasture Canyon Spring have not varied significantly (p>0.05) since the early 1980s, and there is no increasing or decreasing trend in those data. However, concentrations of chloride from Pasture Canyon Spring show a diminishing trend. Concentrations of dissolved solids, chloride, and sulfate at Unnamed Spring near Dennehotso have varied for the period of record, but there is no statistical trend in the data. Concentrations of dissolved solids at Burro Spring have varied for the period of record, but there is no statistical trend in the data. However, concentrations of chloride and sulfate from Burro Spring show a trend towards lower concentrations.

Arizona

Slow rupture, long rise times, and multi-fault geometry: The 2020 M6.4 southwestern Puerto Rico mainshock

The M 6.4 mainshock of the southwestern Puerto Rico seismic sequence on 7 January 2020, was one of the most impactful modern earthquakes in the northeastern Caribbean. Due to its offshore location and complex aftershock distribution, its source kinematics remain poorly constrained. This active sequence illuminated a complex set of previously unrecognized structures that indicate multiple causative faults may have slipped during its rupture. Here, we utilize seismic and geodetic observations to enhance model resolution, estimate the finite slip of the mainshock, and test a multi-segment, geologically realistic fault geometry. Our refined model finds a lower rupture velocity and longer rise times than typical for an event of this magnitude. This indicates a slow-evolving rupture process that resembles characteristics of a tsunami earthquake. Although this normal/strike-slip faulting event was not tsunamigenic, these qualities, if pervasive for this region, have important implications for future seismic monitoring and hazards in southwestern Puerto Rico.

Puerto Rico

Water, ice, meteorological, and speed measurements at South Cascade Glacier, Washington, 1999 balance year

Winter snow accumulation and summer snow, firn, and ice melt were measured at South Cascade Glacier, Washington, to determine the winter and net balances for the 1999 balance year. The 1999 winter snow balance, averaged over the glacier, was 3.59 meters, and the net balance was 1.02 meters. Since the winter balance record began in 1959, only three winters have had a higher winter balance. Since the net balance record began in 1953, only 2 years have had a greater positive net balance than 1999. Runoff was measured from the glacier and an adjacent non-glacierized basin. Air temperature, precipitation, and humidity were measured nearby, and ice speed was measured. This report makes these data available to the glaciological and climatological community.

Washington

Active volcanism on the Arabian Shield—Geology, volcanology, and geophysics of northern Harrat Rahat and vicinity, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia

Active volcanic systems pose serious hazards to people and property including inundation and incineration by lava, blanketing by tephra (volcanic ash), exposure to noxious volcanic gases, and damage from shallow earthquakes triggered by ascending molten material (magma). To improve understanding of volcanism and associated seismicity on the western Arabia Plate, the Saudi Geological Survey and the U.S. Geological Survey conducted a multi-year investigation of the northern Harrat Rahat volcanic field adjacent to the city of Al Madīnah al Munawwarah, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. Project components included creation of a high-resolution digital topographic base; interpretation of eruptive history supported by detailed geologic mapping, paleomagnetism, and abundant high-precision geochronology of volcanic deposits; assessments of eruptive styles and volcanic hazards by physical volcanology; investigation of the origins of magmas in the mantle and of their differentiation in the crust revealed by chemical and isotopic petrology; gravity and magnetotelluric surveys to reveal crustal structures and to search for magma reservoirs; and regional and local seismic tomography and analyses of seismic hazards. Project results are presented in this Professional Paper as chapters written for technical scientific audiences.

Professional Paper

Methods for estimating the magnitude and frequency of peak discharges of rural, unregulated streams in Virginia

Methods are presented for estimating the peak discharges of rural, unregulated streams in Virginia. A Pearson Type III distribution is fitted to the logarithms of the unregulated annual peak-discharge records from 363 stream-gaging stations in Virginia to estimate the peak discharge at these stations for recurrence intervals of 2 to 500 years. Peak-discharge characteristics for 284 unregulated stations are divided into eight regions based on physiographic province, and regressed on basin characteristics, including drainage area, main channel length, main channel slope, mean basin elevation, percentage of forest cover, mean annual precipitation, and maximum rainfall intensity. Regression equations for each region are computed by use of the generalized least-squares method, which accounts for spatial and temporal correlation between nearby gaging stations. This regression technique weights the significance of each station to the regional equation based on the length of records collected at each cation, the correlation between annual peak discharges among the stations, and the standard deviation of the annual peak discharge for each station. Drainage area proved to be the only significant explanatory variable in four regions, while other regions have as many as three significant variables. Standard errors of the regression equations range from 30 to 80 percent. Alternate equations using drainage area only are provided for the five regions with more than one significant explanatory variable. Methods and sample computations are provided to estimate peak discharges at gaged and engaged sites in Virginia for recurrence intervals of 2, 5, 10, 25, 50, 100, 200, and 500 years, and to adjust the regression estimates for sites on gaged streams where nearby gaging-station records are available.

Virginia

High-precision earthquake catalog for Minto Flats fault zone, central Alaska, reveals complex and conjugate faulting

The Minto Flats fault zone (MFFZ) in central Alaska is a left‐lateral strike‐slip fault system situated between the continental‐scale right‐lateral Denali and Kaltag‐Tintina faults. The MFFZ has the potential to generate magnitude 7 earthquakes, and it hosted a magnitude 6 earthquake in 1995. It has also produced exotic events, such as very‐low‐frequency earthquakes and nucleation signals. We use network‐matched filtering and relative earthquake relocation techniques to derive a detailed catalog of earthquake locations for the MFFZ. The catalog spans from August 2014 to December 2019, a time period including 13 temporary seismic stations in the region. Our results provide the most complete catalog for the MFFZ and include deeper events, clusters of shallow seismicity, and a complex and segmented fault structure not observed in the original regional catalog. We document right‐lateral strike‐slip faulting, conjugate to the main northeast‐striking left‐lateral faults of the MFFZ. Below Nenana basin, the relocated seismicity reveals northwest‐dipping left‐lateral faults, supporting the inference that deep crustal active faulting is associated with recent basin deformation.

Alaska

Site response in the Walnut Creek–Concord region of the San Francisco Bay, California: Ground motion amplification in a fault-bounded basin

Thirty‐seven portable accelerometers were deployed in the eastern San Francisco Bay communities of Walnut Creek and Concord to study site response in a fault‐bounded, urban, sedimentary basin. Local earthquakes were recorded for a period of two years from 2017 to 2019 resulting in 101 well‐recorded events. Site response is estimated by two methods: the reference site spectral ratio method and a source‐site spectral inversion method. The reference site spectral ratio method allows investigation of the variability of site amplification with source azimuth and frequency. The source‐site spectral inversion method yields the best least‐squares fit to site response for a database of ground‐motion records. Both methods show substantial amplification in the Walnut Creek–Concord basin below 2 Hz indicating strong surface‐wave development. Greater amplification is seen for sources aligned along the long axis of the basin. Inversion using close‐in sources at short distances yields lower amplification at longer periods than the entire data set due to reduced surface‐wave generation for steeper angles of incidence. Inversion of site response spectra for shallow shear‐wave velocity using a global search algorithm yields V S30 values consistent with generalized mapping results based on geology and topography but with greater variability due to local site variations. 3D finite‐element modeling shows greater amplification in the Walnut Creek–Concord basin with a basin‐edge effect likely contributing to higher ground motions. Topography is also seen to lead to increased scattering and shadowing effects.

California

An early Holocene wet period in the southwestern United States

Multiple generations of spring-fed streams traversed ∼800 km 2 of the Las Vegas Valley in southern Nevada between ca. 10.9 ka and 8.5 ka, depositing an extensive tufa network. The scale of this network and diversity of tufa morphologies is novel in North America and offers an opportunity to obtain quantitative paleoclimate data for the region during the early Holocene. We determined isotopic compositions and estimated past temperatures using clumped isotope data from early Holocene tufa on the valley floor (698 m) as well as tufa forming today at higher elevation in the nearby Spring Mountains at Cold Creek Spring (1856 m). Modern and fossil tufa yielded comparably low δ 18 O values, implying that source waters for both were derived from high-elevation winter precipitation. Clumped isotope temperatures of modern tufa average 15.8 ± 2.5 °C, aligning with mean summer temperatures of the emergent spring water, and indicate equilibrium conditions of tufa formation. The early Holocene tufa yielded similar clumped isotope temperatures, averaging 15.2 ± 3.9 °C, meaning it precipitated at temperatures that occur at much higher elevations today. The Las Vegas tufa record, combined with nearby and temporally correlative paleospring and lacustrine records, suggest that cool/wet conditions prevailed throughout the Mojave Desert during the early Holocene. These records also demonstrate that spring ecosystems responded to millennial-scale hydroclimate variations that supersede climate change driven solely by insolation. The previously unrecognized pattern of ecosystem response to hydroclimate documented here may assist in understanding climate drivers for the early Holocene and provide critical information for the fate of groundwater-dependent ecosystems in the southwestern United States.

Nevada

Sediment thickness map of United States Atlantic and Gulf Coastal Plain Strata, and their influence on earthquake ground motions

With the recent successful accounting of basin depth ground-motion adjustments in seismic hazard analyses for select areas of the western United States, we move toward implementing similar adjustments in the Atlantic and Gulf Coastal Plains by constructing a sediment thickness model and evaluating multiple relevant site amplification models for central and eastern United States seismic hazard analyses. We digitize and combine existing sediment thickness data sets into a composite surface that delineates the base of Cretaceous sediments under the Atlantic Coastal Plain and the base of Mesozoic sediments under the Gulf Coastal Plain. Amplification models dependent on sediment thickness, site natural period, and source-to-site path length are compared with data sets of observed ground motions to evaluate the ability of the new models to improve ground motion estimates. We find that the amplification models can account for observed trends in sediment-thickness and period-dependent residuals, but some tuning is required. For example, the model of Chapman and Guo requires a reference V S 30 , the time-averaged shear-wave velocity within 30 m of the Earth’s surface, for non-Coastal Plain sites, which we estimate to be between about 1 and 2 km/s. Along with our sediment thickness model, we estimate a velocity profile for application to the Harmon et al. site-natural-period-based model in order to best match the Chapman and Guo period dependence for a broad range of sediment thicknesses. The Next Generation of Attenuation models for the eastern United States Gulf Coast path-based adjustment models can also account for seismic attenuation in the Coastal Plain sediments and reduce the standard deviation of total residuals. If enacted in the U.S. Geological Survey National Seismic Hazard Model, these amplification models will reduce predicted short-period (<1 s) and increase predicted long-period (>1 s) ground motions in the Coastal Plains appreciably.

Earthquake Spectra