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U.S. Department of the Interior South Central Climate Science Center

On September 14, 2009, the Secretary of the Interior signed a Secretarial Order (No. 3289) entitled, "Addressing the Impacts of Climate Change on America's Water, Land, and Other Natural and Cultural Resources." The Order effectively established the U.S. Department of the Interior (DOI) Climate Science Centers (CSCs) for the purpose of integrating DOI science and management expertise with similar contributions from our partners to provide information to support strategic adaptation and mitigation efforts on public and private lands across the United States and internationally. The South Central Climate Science Center (SC CSC) is supported by a consortium of partners that include The University of Oklahoma, Texas Tech University, Louisiana State University, The Chickasaw Nation, The Choctaw Nation of Oklahoma, Oklahoma State University, and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory. Additionally, the SC CSC will collaborate with a number of other universities, State and federal agencies, and nongovernmental organizations (NGOs) with interests and expertise in climate science. The primary partners of the SC CSC are the Landscape Conservation Cooperatives (LCCs), which include the Desert, Eastern Tallgrass Prairie and Big Rivers, Great Plains, Gulf Coast Prairie, Gulf Coastal Plains and Ozarks, and Southern Rockies. CSC collaborations are focused on common science priorities that address priority partner needs, eliminate redundancies in science, share scientific information and findings, and expand understanding of climate change impacts in the south-central United States and Mexico.

Arizona;Louisiana;Oklahoma;Texas

Coastal change analysis program implemented in Louisiana

Landsat Thematic Mapper images from 1990 to 1996 and collateral data sources were used to classify the land cover of the Mermentau River Basin (MRB) within the Chenier Plain of coastal Louisiana. Landcover classes followed the definition of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Coastal Change Analysis Program; however, classification methods had to be developed as part of this study for attainment of these national classification standards. Classification method developments were especially important when classes were spectrally inseparable, when classes were part of spatial and spectral continuums, when the spatial resolution of the sensor included more than one landcover type, and when human activities caused abnormal transitions in the landscape. Most classification problems were overcome by using one or a combination of techniques, such as separating the MRB into subregions of commonality, applying masks to specific land mixtures, and highlighting class transitions between years that were highly unlikely. Overall, 1990, 1993, and 1996 classification accuracy percentages (associated kappa statistics) were 80% (0.79), 78% (0.76), and 86% (0.84), respectively. Most classification errors were associated with confusion between managed (cultivated land) and unmanaged grassland classes; scrub shrub, grasslands and forest classes; water, unconsolidated shore and bare land classes; and especially in 1993, between water and floating vegetation classes. Combining cultivated land and grassland classes and water and floating vegetation classes into single classes accuracies for 1990, 1993, and 1996 increased to 82%, 83%, and 90%, respectively. To improve the interpretation of landcover change, three indicators of landcover class stability were formulated. Location stability was defined as the percentage of a landcover class that remained as the same class in the same location at the beginning and the end of the monitoring period. Residence stability was defined as the percent change in each class within the entire MRB during the monitoring period. Turnover was defined as the addition of other landcover classes to the target landcover class during the defined monitoring period. These indicators allowed quick assessment of the dynamic nature of landcover classes, both in reference to a spatial location and to retaining their presence throughout the MRB. Examining the landcover changes between 1990 to 1993 and 1993 to 1996, led us to five principal findings: (1) Landcover turnover is maintaining a near stable logging cycle, although the locations of grassland, scrub shrub, and forest areas involved in the cycle appeared to change. (2) Planting of seedlings is critical to maintaining cycle stability. (3) Logging activities tend to replace woody land mixed forests with woody land evergreen forests. (4) Wetland estuarine marshes are expanding slightly. (5) Wetland palustrine marshes and mature forested wetlands in the MRB are relatively stable.

Louisiana

EAARL submarine topography: Florida Keys National Marine Sanctuary

This Web site contains 46 Lidar-derived submarine topography maps and GIS files for the Florida Keys National Marine Sanctuary. These Lidar-derived submarine topographic maps were produced as a collaborative effort between the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Coastal and Marine Geology Program, FISC St. Petersburg, Florida, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Remote Sensing Division, the National Park Service (NPS) South Florida/Caribbean Network Inventory and Monitoring Program, and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Wallops Flight Facility. One objective of this research is to create techniques to survey coral reefs and barrier islands for the purposes of geomorphic change studies, habitat mapping, ecological monitoring, change detection, and event assessment. As part of this project, data from an innovative instrument under development at the NASA Wallops Flight Facility, the NASA Experimental Airborne Advanced Research Lidar (EAARL) are being used. This sensor has the potential to make significant contributions in this realm for measuring subaerial and submarine topography within cross-environment surveys. High spectral resolution, water-column correction, and low costs were found to be key factors in providing accurate and affordable imagery to coastal resource managers.

Florida

Documentation and hydrologic analysis of Hurricane Sandy in New Jersey, October 29–30, 2012

In 2012, a late season tropical depression developed into a tropical storm and later a hurricane. The hurricane, named “Hurricane Sandy,” gained strength to a Category 3 storm on October 25, 2012, and underwent several transitions on its approach to the mid-Atlantic region of the eastern coast of the United States. By October 28, 2012, Hurricane Sandy had strengthened into the largest hurricane ever recorded in the North Atlantic and was tracking parallel to the east coast of United States, heading toward New Jersey. On October 29, 2012, the storm turned west-northwest and made landfall near Atlantic City, N.J. The high winds and wind-driven storm surge caused massive damage along the entire coastline of New Jersey. Millions of people were left without power or communication networks. Many homes were completely destroyed. Sand dunes were eroded, and the barrier island at Mantoloking was breached, connecting the ocean with Barnegat Bay. Several days before the storm made landfall in New Jersey, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) made a decision to deploy a temporary network of storm-tide sensors and barometric pressure sensors from Virginia to Maine to supplement the existing USGS and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) networks of permanent tide monitoring stations. After the storm made landfall, the USGS conducted a sensor data recovery and high-water-mark collection campaign in cooperation with the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA). Peak storm-tide elevations documented at USGS tide gages, tidal crest-stage gages, temporary storm sensor locations, and high-water-mark sites indicate the area from southern Monmouth County, N.J., north through Raritan Bay, N.J., had the highest peak storm-tide elevations during this storm. The USGS tide gages at Raritan River at South Amboy and Raritan Bay at Keansburg, part of the New Jersey Tide Telemetry System, each recorded peak storm-tide elevations of greater than 13 feet (ft)—more than 5 ft higher than the previously recorded period-of-record maximum. A comparison of peak storm-tide elevations to preliminary FEMA Coastal Flood Insurance Study flood elevations indicated that these areas experienced the highest recurrence intervals along the coast of New Jersey. Analysis showed peak storm-tide elevations exceeded the 100-year FEMA flood elevations in many parts of Middlesex, Union, Essex, Hudson, and Bergen Counties, and peak storm-tide elevations at many locations in Monmouth County exceeded the 500-year recurrence interval. A level 1 HAZUS (HAZards United States) analysis was done for the counties in New Jersey affected by flooding to estimate total building stock losses. The aggregated total building stock losses estimated by HAZUS for New Jersey, on the basis of the final inundation verified by USGS high-water marks, was almost $19 billion. A comparison of Hurricane Sandy with historic coastal storms showed that peak storm-tide elevations associated with Hurricane Sandy exceeded most of the previously documented elevations associated with the storms of December 1992, March 1962, September 1960, and September 1944 at many coastal communities in New Jersey. This scientific investigation report was prepared in cooperation with FEMA to document flood processes and flood damages resulting from this storm and to assist in future flood mitigation actions in New Jersey.

New Jersey

Hurricane Ike: Observations and analysis of coastal change

Understanding storm-induced coastal change and forecasting these changes require knowledge of the physical processes associated with the storm and the geomorphology of the impacted coastline. The primary physical processes of interest are the wind field, storm surge, and wave climate. Not only does wind cause direct damage to structures along the coast, but it is ultimately responsible for much of the energy that is transferred to the ocean and expressed as storm surge, mean currents, and large waves. Waves and currents are the processes most responsible for moving sediments in the coastal zone during extreme storm events. Storm surge, the rise in water level due to the wind, barometric pressure, and other factors, allows both waves and currents to attack parts of the coast not normally exposed to those processes. Coastal geomorphology, including shapes of the shoreline, beaches, and dunes, is equally important to the coastal change observed during extreme storm events. Relevant geomorphic variables include sand dune elevation, beach width, shoreline position, sediment grain size, and foreshore beach slope. These variables, in addition to hydrodynamic processes, can be used to predict coastal vulnerability to storms The U.S. Geological Survey's (USGS) National Assessment of Coastal Change Hazards Project (http://coastal.er.usgs.gov/hurricanes), strives to provide hazard information to those interested in the Nation's coastlines, including residents of coastal areas, government agencies responsible for coastal management, and coastal researchers. As part of the National Assessment, observations were collected to measure coastal changes associated with Hurricane Ike, which made landfall near Galveston, Texas, on September 13, 2008. Methods of observation included aerial photography and airborne topographic surveys. This report documents these data-collection efforts and presents qualitative and quantitative descriptions of hurricane-induced changes to the shoreline, beaches, dunes, and infrastructure in the region that was heavily impacted by Hurricane Ike.

Texas

Hurricane Gustav: Observations and analysis of coastal change

Understanding storm-induced coastal change and forecasting these changes require knowledge of the physical processes associated with a storm and the geomorphology of the impacted coastline. The primary physical processes of interest are the wind field, storm surge, currents, and wave field. Not only does wind cause direct damage to structures along the coast, but it is ultimately responsible for much of the energy that is transferred to the ocean and expressed as storm surge, mean currents, and surface waves. Waves and currents are the processes most responsible for moving sediments in the coastal zone during extreme storm events. Storm surge, which is the rise in water level due to the wind, barometric pressure, and other factors, allows both waves and currents to attack parts of the coast not normally exposed to these processes. Coastal geomorphology, including shapes of the shoreline, beaches, and dunes, is also a significant aspect of the coastal change observed during extreme storms. Relevant geomorphic variables include sand dune elevation, beach width, shoreline position, sediment grain size, and foreshore beach slope. These variables, in addition to hydrodynamic processes, can be used to predict coastal vulnerability to storms. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) National Assessment of Coastal Change Hazards project ( http://coastal.er.usgs.gov/hurricanes ) strives to provide hazard information to those concerned about the Nation’s coastlines, including residents of coastal areas, government agencies responsible for coastal management, and coastal researchers. As part of the National Assessment, observations were collected to measure morphological changes associated with Hurricane Gustav, which made landfall near Cocodrie, Louisiana, on September 1, 2008. Methods of observation included oblique aerial photography, airborne topographic surveys, and ground-based topographic surveys. This report documents these data-collection efforts and presents qualitative and quantitative descriptions of hurricane-induced changes to the shoreline, beaches, dunes, and infrastructure in the region that was heavily impacted by Hurricane Gustav.

Alabama, Louisiana, Mississippi

Nitrogen Loads in Groundwater Entering Back Bays and Ocean from Fire Island National Seashore, Long Island, New York

Fire Island is a barrier island that lies south of central Long Island, N.Y. It is about 60 km (37 mi) long and 0.5 km (1/4 mi) wide and is bounded by the Great South Bay, Narrow Bay, and Moriches Bay estuaries to the north; by the Atlantic Ocean to the south; by Fire Island Inlet to the west; and by Moriches Inlet to the east (fig. 1). Fire Island National Seashore (FIIS) encompasses a 42-km (26-mi) length of Fire Island that is bordered by Robert Moses State Park to the west and Smith Point County Park to the east (fig. 2). Interspersed throughout FIIS are 17 residential beach communities that together contain about 4,100 homes. The barrier island's summer population increases 50-fold through the arrival of summer residents and vacationers. The National Park Service (NPS) has established several facilities on the island to accommodate visitors to FIIS. About 2.2 million people visit at least one of the 17 communities and (or) Smith Point County Park, the waterways surrounding Fire Island, or a FIIS facility annually (National Park Service, 2007). Combined visitation on a peak-season weekend day can be as high as 100,000 (National Park Service, 2002). Most homes and businesses in the 17 barrier-island communities discharge untreated wastewater directly to the shallow (water-table) aquifer through private septic systems and cesspools; the NPS facilities discharge wastewater to this aquifer through leach fields and cesspools. (The community of Ocean Beach (fig. 2) has a treatment plant that discharges to tidewater.) Contaminants in sewage entering the shallow groundwater move through the flow system and are ultimately discharged to adjacent marine surface waters, where they can pose a threat to coastal habitats. A contaminant of major concern is nitrogen, which is derived from fertilizers and human waste. The continuous inflow of nitrogen to surface-water bodies can lead to increased production of phytoplankton and macroalgae, which in turn can cause oxygen depletion, decreases in size of estuarine fish and shellfish communities, and loss of submerged seagrass habitat through light limitation (Valiela and others, 1992). The FIIS boundary extends roughly 1.2 km (0.8 mi) into the back-barrier estuaries of Great South Bay, Narrow Bay, and Moriches Bay (fig. 1). Within this estuarine zone are extensive areas of seagrass, shellfish, and finfish habitat, as well as intense recreational activity (Bokuniewicz and others, 1993). Management strategies for protection of these habitats require data on (1) concentrations and movement of nutrients and other human-derived contaminants that enter the groundwater system from on-site septic systems, and (2) aquifer characteristics and groundwater flow patterns. These data can then be used in three-dimensional flow models of the shallow aquifer system to predict the rates of groundwater discharge to the marine surface waters that bound Fire Island and the concentrations of nitrogen entering these water bodies from the aquifer's discharge zones. In 2004, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the NPS, began a 3-year investigation to (1) measure groundwater levels within four local study areas at FIIS, (2) collect groundwater samples from these areas for nutrient (nitrogen) analysis, (3) develop a three-dimensional model of the hydrologic system and adjacent saltwater bodies for groundwater-flow delineation and particle tracking, and (4) apply the results of groundwater-discharge simulations to calculate the annual nitrogen loads in these discharges, particularly those entering Great South Bay, which together with the other back bays receives an estimated 80 percent of the total groundwater discharge from Fire Island. The four areas on which the investigation focused were the communities of Kismet and Robbins Rest, the NPS Visitor Center at Watch Hill, and the undeveloped Otis Pike Fire Island High Dune Wilderness (shown in panels A, B, C, and D in fig. 2); these were

Open-File Report

South Carolina and Landsat

South Carolina, the eighth State admitted to the union, transcends its size with its deep, rich history; striking beauty; vast natural resources; and extensive cultural diversity. Home to part of the Blue Ridge Mountains of the Central Appalachians, the Upstate is graced with more than 100 waterfalls, while the Lowcountry borders the Atlantic Ocean with 187 miles of coastline and 35 barrier islands. Forests cover two-thirds of the State, and forestry and agriculture together, as agribusiness, make up South Carolina’s leading industry. Two historic crops—cotton and tobacco—still rank in the top 10 commodities, though corn and soybeans now rank higher. Poultry, cattle, peanuts, and flowers also make the list. South Carolina’s population totals more than five million. Other residents include a variety of wildlife, bird, reptile, and fish species, including Ursus americanus (black bears), Alligator mississippiensis (American alligators), and Tursiops truncatus (bottlenose dolphins). More than 100 tree species also reside in South Carolina, which pays homage to one with its “The Palmetto State” nickname. South Carolina’s subtropical climate, long coastline, and lower elevations make it highly susceptible to tornado and hurricane activity and coastal flooding. Projected sea-level rise is a growing concern. A view from space can help monitor and manage natural resources on the land and in rivers, marshes, and the coast. Landsat reveals not just what an area looks like now, but also insights from decades ago.

South Carolina

U.S. Geological Survey program of offshore resource and geoenvironmental studies, Atlantic-Gulf of Mexico region, from September 1, 1976, to December 31, 1978

Mineral and energy resources of the continental margins of the United States arc important to the Nation's commodity independence and to its balance of payments. These resources are being studied along the continental margins of the Atlantic Ocean and the Gulf of Mexico in keeping with the mission of the U.S. Geological Survey to survey the geologic structures, mineral resources, and products of the national domain.'(Organic Act of 1879). An essential corollary to these resource studies is the study of potential geologic hazards that may be associated with offshore resource exploration and exploitation. In cooperation with the U.S. Bureau of Land Management, the Geological Survey, through its Atlantic-Gulf of Mexico Marine Geology Program, carries out extensive research to evaluate hazards from sediment mobility, shallow gas, and slumping and to acquire information on the distribution and concentration of trace metals and biogenic and petroleum-derived hydrocarbons in sea-floor sediments. All these studies arc providing needed background information, including information on pollutant dispersal, on the nearshore, estuarine, and lacustrine areas that may be near pipeline and nuclear powerplant sites. Users of these data include the Congress, many Federal agencies, the coastal States, private industry, academia, and the concerned public. The results of the regional structural, stratigraphic, and resource studies carried out under the Atlantic-Gulf of Mexico Marine Geology Program have been used by the Geological Survey and the Bureau of Land Management to select areas for future leasing and to aid in the evaluation of tracts nominated for leasing. Resource studies have concentrated mostly on the Atlantic Outer Continental Shelf frontier areas. Geologic detailing of five major basins along the U.S. Atlantic margin, where sediments are as much as 14 km thick, have been revealed by 25,000 km of 24-and 48-channel common-depth-point seismic data, 187,000 km of acromagnetic data, and 39,000 km of gravity data, plus 10,000 samples and logs obtained from U.S. Geological Survey and industry drilling (for example, coreholes of the Atlantic Slope Program, Joint Oceanographic Institutions Deep Earth Sampling, Continental Offshore Stratigraphic Tests, and the Atlantic Margin Coring Program). A sedimentary section of Jurassic and Cretaceous age grades from terrigenous clastic rocks nearshore to carbonate rocks offshore; this section is part of an extensive buried bank-platform complex that could contain large reserves of natural gas and oil. The volume of sediment deposited offshore far exceeds the volume deposited onshore where extensive accumulations of oil, gas, and minerals have been found. Commercial exploratory drilling offshore thus far has been limited to the Baltimore Canyon Trough area off New Jersey, where at least two holes have found gas; leasing has taken place in the Southeast Georgia Embayment, where drilling was scheduled to begin in 1979, and is imminent in the Georges Bank area off New England. In addition, hydrogeologic and hydrochemical data obtained from the drilling studies have delineated freshwater-bearing submarine extensions of land aquifers that are important coastal ground-water resources. Hazards in the Georges Bank area include sand mobility associated with strong currents and storm-driven waves; high concentrations of suspended sediment in the water column that, when mixed with spilled oil, may sink to the bottom; and slumping along the upper slope. In the Baltimore Canyon, high sediment mobility accompanies major winter storms, and slumped material may cover as much as 20 percent of the upper slope. Potentially unstable slope areas are being studied in great detail to provide data on timing, triggering mechanisms, and rates of sediment movement. In the Southeast Georgia Embayment and Blake Plateau Basin, strong Gulf Stream flow poses a major problem to all offshore operations. In the Gulf o

Circular

Biological dimensions of tern management-a case study of the least tern in Sonora, Mexico, and a comparative analysis of reproductive investment in terns

Least terns (Sternula antillarum) are threatened by rapid human development on the northern coast of Sonora, Mexico. Terns are bellwethers for changes along the world's coastlines, as their coastal breeding habitat is vulnerable to flooding and development. We conducted targeted ground and aerial surveys for least tern colonies along 160 kilometers of coast, and document our findings on colony sizes at nine sites over 3 years in the first portion of this report. Like many taxa, terns lay larger clutches at higher latitudes. In the second portion of this report, we evaluate least tern breeding lifespan, food availability, and nest predation as potential ecological reasons behind this differing clutch-size pattern. After correcting for phylogenetic relationships, we found that food availability, not breeding lifespan or nest predation rate, was related to reproductive investment across 46 species and populations of terns. We conclude that coastal development may have a greater impact on nesting terns in tropical regions as compared to temperate breeding locations, because global oceanic patterns of decreased food availability reduce reproductive investment in the tropics.

Open-File Report

Critical assessment and ramifications of a purported marine trophic cascade

When identifying potential trophic cascades, it is important to clearly establish the trophic linkages between predators and prey with respect to temporal abundance, demographics, distribution, and diet. In the northwest Atlantic Ocean, the depletion of large coastal sharks was thought to trigger a trophic cascade whereby predation release resulted in increased cownose ray abundance, which then caused increased predation on and subsequent collapse of commercial bivalve stocks. These claims were used to justify the development of a predator-control fishery for cownose rays, the “Save the Bay, Eat a Ray” fishery, to reduce predation on commercial bivalves. A reexamination of data suggests declines in large coastal sharks did not coincide with purported rapid increases in cownose ray abundance. Likewise, the increase in cownose ray abundance did not coincide with declines in commercial bivalves. The lack of temporal correlations coupled with published diet data suggest the purported trophic cascade is lacking the empirical linkages required of a trophic cascade. Furthermore, the life history parameters of cownose rays suggest they have low reproductive potential and their populations are incapable of rapid increases. Hypothesized trophic cascades should be closely scrutinized as spurious conclusions may negatively influence conservation and management decisions.

Connecticut, Delaware, Maryland, Massachusetts, Ne

Seaside, Oregon, Tsunami Pilot Study— Modernization of FEMA flood hazard maps: GIS data

Introduction: The Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) Federal Insurance Rate Map (FIRM) guidelines do not currently exist for conducting and incorporating tsunami hazard assessments that reflect the substantial advances in tsunami research achieved in the last two decades; this conclusion is the result of two FEMA-sponsored workshops and the associated Tsunami Focused Study (Chowdhury and others, 2005). Therefore, as part of FEMA's Map Modernization Program, a Tsunami Pilot Study was carried out in the Seaside/Gearhart, Oregon, area to develop an improved Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Analysis (PTHA) methodology and to provide recommendations for improved tsunami hazard assessment guidelines (Tsunami Pilot Study Working Group, 2006). The Seaside area was chosen because it is typical of many coastal communities in the section of the Pacific Coast from Cape Mendocino to the Strait of Juan de Fuca, and because State agencies and local stakeholders expressed considerable interest in mapping the tsunami threat to this area. The study was an interagency effort by FEMA, U.S. Geological Survey, and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), in collaboration with the University of Southern California, Middle East Technical University, Portland State University, Horning Geoscience, Northwest Hydraulics Consultants, and the Oregon Department of Geological and Mineral Industries. We present the spatial (geographic information system, GIS) data from the pilot study in standard GIS formats and provide files for visualization in Google Earth, a global map viewer.

Oregon

Increasing resiliency to natural hazards - A strategic plan for the Multi-Hazards Demonstration Project in Southern California

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) is initiating a new project designed to improve resiliency to natural hazards in southern California through the application of science to community decision making and emergency response. The Multi-Hazards Demonstration Project will assist the region’s communities to reduce their risk from natural hazards by directing new and existing research towards the community’s needs, improving monitoring technology, producing innovative products, and improving dissemination of the results. The natural hazards to be investigated in this project include coastal erosion, earthquakes, floods, landslides, tsunamis, and wildfires. Americans are more at risk from natural hazards now than at any other time in our Nation’s history. Southern California, in particular, has one of the Nation’s highest potentials for extreme catastrophic losses due to natural hazards, with estimates of expected losses exceeding $3 billion per year. These losses can only be reduced through the decisions of the southern California community itself. To be effective, these decisions must be guided by the best information about hazards, risk, and the cost-effectiveness of mitigation technologies. The USGS will work with collaborators to set the direction of the research and to create multi-hazard risk frameworks where communities can apply the results of scientific research to their decision-making processes. Partners include state, county, city, and public-lands government agencies, public and private utilities, companies with a significant impact and presence in southern California, academic researchers, the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), and local emergency response agencies. Prior to the writing of this strategic plan document, three strategic planning workshops were held in February and March 2006 at the USGS office in Pasadena to explore potential relationships. The goal of these planning sessions was to determine the external organizations’ needs for mitigation efforts before potential natural hazard events, and response efforts during and after the event. On the basis of input from workshop participants, four priority areas were identified for future research to address. They are (1) helping decision makers design planning scenarios, (2) improving upon the mapping of multiple hazards in urban areas, (3) providing real-time information from monitoring networks, and (4) integrating information in a risk and decision-making analysis. Towards this end, short-term and out-year goals have been outlined with the priorities in mind. First-year goals are (1) to engage the user community to establish the structures and processes for communications and interactions, (2) to develop a program to create scenarios of anticipated disasters, beginning in the first year with a scenario of a southern San Andreas earthquake that triggers secondary hazards, (3) to compile existing datasets of geospatial data, and (4) to target research efforts to support more complete and robust products in future years. Both the first-year and out-year goals have been formulated around a working-group structure that builds on existing research strengths within the USGS. The project is intended to demonstrate how developments in methodology and products can lead to improvement in our management of natural hazards in an urban environment for application across the Nation.

Open-File Report

A three-dimensional mapping of the ocean based on environmental data

The existence, sources, distribution, circulation, and physicochemical nature of macroscale oceanic water bodies have long been a focus of oceanographic inquiry. Building on that work, this paper describes an objectively derived and globally comprehensive set of 37 distinct volumetric region units, called ecological marine units (EMUs). They are constructed on a regularly spaced ocean point-mesh grid, from sea surface to seafloor, and attributed with data from the 2013 World Ocean Atlas version 2. The point attribute data are the means of the decadal averages from a 57-year climatology of six physical and chemical environment parameters (temperature, salinity, dissolved oxygen, nitrate, phosphate, and silicate). The database includes over 52 million points that depict the global ocean in x, y, and z dimensions. The point data were statistically clustered to define the 37 EMUs, which represent physically and chemically distinct water volumes based on spatial variation in the six marine environmental characteristics used. The aspatial clustering to produce the 37 EMUs did not include point location or depth as a determinant, yet strong geographic and vertical separation was observed. Twenty-two of the 37 EMUs are globally or regionally extensive, and account for 99% of the ocean volume, while the remaining 15 are smaller and shallower, and occur around coastal features. We assessed the vertical distribution of EMUs in the water column and placed them into classical depth zones representing epipelagic (0 m to 200 m), mesopelagic (200 m to 1,000 m), bathypelagic (1,000 m to 4,000 m) and abyssopelagic (>4,000 m) layers. The mapping and characterization of the EMUs represent a new spatial framework for organizing and understanding the physical, chemical, and ultimately biological properties and processes of oceanic water bodies. The EMUs are an initial objective partitioning of the ocean using long-term historical average data, and could be extended in the future by adding new classification variables and by introducing functionality to develop time-specific EMU distribution maps. The EMUs are an open-access resource, and as both a standardized geographic framework and a baseline physicochemical characterization of the oceanic environment, they are intended to be useful for disturbance assessments, ecosystem accounting exercises, conservation priority setting, and marine protected area network design, along with other research and management applications.

Oceanography

Marine mammal hotspots across the circumpolar Arctic

Aim Identify hotspots and areas of high species richness for Arctic marine mammals. Location Circumpolar Arctic. Methods A total of 2115 biologging devices were deployed on marine mammals from 13 species in the Arctic from 2005 to 2019. Getis-Ord G i * hotspots were calculated based on the number of individuals in grid cells for each species and for phylogenetic groups (nine pinnipeds, three cetaceans, all species) and areas with high species richness were identified for summer (Jun-Nov), winter (Dec-May) and the entire year. Seasonal habitat differences among species’ hotspots were investigated using Principal Component Analysis. Results Hotspots and areas with high species richness occurred within the Arctic continental-shelf seas and within the marginal ice zone, particularly in the “Arctic gateways” of the north Atlantic and Pacific oceans. Summer hotspots were generally found further north than winter hotspots, but there were exceptions to this pattern, including bowhead whales in the Greenland-Barents Seas and species with coastal distributions in Svalbard, Norway and East Greenland. Areas with high species richness generally overlapped high-density hotspots. Large regional and seasonal differences in habitat features of hotspots were found among species but also within species from different regions. Gap analysis (discrepancy between hotspots and IUCN ranges) identified species and regions where more research is required. Main conclusions This study identified important areas (and habitat types) for Arctic marine mammals using available biotelemetry data. The results herein serve as a benchmark to measure future distributional shifts. Expanded monitoring and telemetry studies are needed on Arctic species to understand the impacts of climate change and concomitant ecosystem changes (synergistic effects of multiple stressors). While efforts should be made to fill knowledge gaps, including regional gaps and more complete sex and age coverage, hotspots identified herein can inform management efforts to mitigate the impacts of human activities and ecological changes, including creation of protected areas.

Diversity and Distributions

Organic carbon balance and net ecosystem metabolism in Chesapeake Bay

The major fluxes of organic carbon associated with physical transport and biological metabolism were compiled, analyzed and compared for the mainstem portion of Chesapeake Bay (USA). In addition, 5 independent methods were used to calculate the annual mean net ecosystem metabolism (NEM = production - respiration) for the integrated Bay. These methods, which employed biogeochemical models, nutrient mass-balances anti summation of individual organic carbon fluxes, yielded remarkably similar estimates, with a mean NEM of +50 g C m-2 yr-1 (?? SE = 751, which is approximately 8% of the estimated annual average gross primary production. These calculations suggest a strong cross-sectional pattern in NEM throughout the Bay, wherein net heterotrophic metabolism prevails in the pelagic zones of the main channel, while net autotrophy occurs in the littoral zones which flank the deeper central area. For computational purposes, the estuary was separated into 3 regions along the land-sea gradient: (1) the oligohaline Upper Bay (11% of total area); (2) the mesohaline Mid Bay (36% of area); and (3) the polyhaline Lower Bay (53% of area). A distinct regional trend in NEM was observed along this salinity gradient, with net here(atrophy (NEM = 87 g C m-2 yr-1) in the Upper Bay, balanced metabolism in the Mid Bay and net autotrophy (NEM = +92 g C m-2 yr-1) in the Lower Bay. As a consequence of overall net autotrophy, the ratio of dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN) to total organic nitrogen (TON) changed from DIN:TON = 5.1 for riverine inputs to DIN:TON = 0.04 for water exported to the ocean. A striking feature of this organic C mass-balance was the relative dominance of biologically mediated metabolic fluxes compared to physical transport fluxes. The overall ratio of physical TOC inputs (1) to biotic primary production (P) was 0.08 for the whole estuary, but varied dramatically from 2.3 in the Upper Bay to 0.03 in the Mid and Lower Bay regions. Similarly, ecosystem respiration was some 6-fold higher than the sum of all physical carbon sinks. This general negative correspondence between I:P ratio and NEM, which occurred among Bay regions, was also evident in data available for organic C fluxes in other coastal ecosystems. An inverse relationship between NEM and P, postulated in a previous study, did not apply to Chesapeake Bay, and closer examination of available data revealed the importance of the loading ratio of DIN:TOC as a key control on coastal NEM. It is proposed here that the general global trend of coastal eutrophication will lead to increasing values of NEM in estuaries worldwide. The management implications of this trend are complex, involving both increased potential fisheries harvest and decreased demersal habitat.

Marine Ecology Progress Series

Spatially referenced models of streamflow and nitrogen, phosphorus, and suspended-sediment loads in streams of the northeastern United States

SPAtially Referenced Regression On Watershed attributes (SPARROW) models were developed to quantify and improve the understanding of the sources, fate, and transport of nitrogen, phosphorus, and suspended sediment in the northeastern United States. Excessive nutrients and suspended sediment from upland watersheds and tributary streams have contributed to ecological and economic degradation of northeastern surface waters. Recent efforts to reduce the flux of nutrients and suspended sediment in northeastern streams and to downstream estuaries have met with mixed results, and expected ecological improvements have been observed in some areas but not in others. Effective watershed management and restoration to improve surface-water quality are complicated by the multitude of nutrient sources in the Northeast and the multitude of natural and human landscape processes affecting the delivery of nutrients and suspended sediment from upland areas to and within surface waters. Individual models were constructed representing streamflow and the loads of total nitrogen, total phosphorus, and suspended sediment from watersheds draining to the Atlantic Ocean from southern Virginia through Maine. Northeastern streams contribute 303,000 metric tons (t) of nitrogen, 25,300 t of phosphorus, and 14,700,000 t of suspended sediment, annually (on average), to waters along the Atlantic Coast of North America. Although atmospheric deposition and natural mineral erosion contribute to nitrogen and phosphorus loads, respectively, in northeastern streams, most of the contributions are attributable to urban or agricultural sources. Within the Northeast, average yields of nutrients are therefore generally greater from densely populated or intensively cultivated areas of the mid-Atlantic region, the Hudson, Mohawk, and Connecticut River valleys, and the coastal areas of southern New England than in predominantly forested areas such as northern New England. Average upland sediment yields are similarly greater from agricultural areas than from urban or forested areas and are therefore generally greatest in areas yielding the greatest nutrients. Landscape conditions that are significant to nitrogen delivery from uplands to streams likely reflect the importance of groundwater transport in carbonate settings and of denitrification for removing nitrogen from uplands. Nitrogen losses to streams in agricultural areas are apparently mitigated by the use of cover crops but are exacerbated by the use of conservation tillage or no-till practices. The transport of phosphorus and suspended sediment from uplands to streams is greater in areas of more erodible soils but mitigated in agricultural areas with greater use of conservation tillage or no-till practices. Loads of nutrients and suspended sediment are significantly reduced within the stream network in impounded reaches, and nitrogen load is also significantly reduced in small flowing reaches.

Scientific Investigations Report

Reduced disease in black abalone following mass mortality: Phage therapy and natural selection

Black abalone, Haliotis cracherodii , populations along the NE Pacific ocean have declined due to the rickettsial disease withering syndrome (WS). Natural recovery on San Nicolas Island (SNI) of Southern California suggested the development of resistance in island populations. Experimental challenges in one treatment demonstrated that progeny of disease-selected black abalone from SNI survived better than did those from naïve black abalone from Carmel Point in mainland coastal central California. Unexpectedly, the presence of a newly observed bacteriophage infecting the WS rickettsia (WS-RLO) had strong effects on the survival of infected abalone. Specifically, presence of phage-infected RLO (RLOv) reduced the host response to infection, RLO infection loads, and associated mortality. These data suggest that the black abalone: WS-RLO relationship is evolving through dual host mechanisms of resistance to RLO infection in the digestive gland via tolerance to infection in the primary target tissue (the post-esophagus) coupled with reduced pathogenicity of the WS-RLO by phage infection, which effectively reduces the infection load in the primary target tissue by half. Sea surface temperature patterns off southern California, associated with a recent hiatus in global-scale ocean warming, do not appear to be a sufficient explanation for survival patterns in SNI black abalone. These data highlight the potential for natural recovery of abalone populations over time and that further understanding of mechanisms governing host–parasite relationships will better enable us to manage declining populations.

California