Geology Reports⌕ Search

SEARCH · Geology Reports

Results for “Management of Biological Invasions.”

Search indexed USGS publications on groundwater, aquifers, geologic maps, mineral resources and earthquakes. Explore source records by subject and place.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 217 records · Page 12Linked to original sources
USGS1998

Overview of the International Symposium on Eurasian Ruffe ( Gymnocephalus cernuus ) Biology, Impacts, and Control

The International Symposium on the Biology and Management of Ruffe was organized to address the potential threat ruffe pose to North American fisheries. Scientists in diverse disciplines from Eurasia and North America were brought together in an attempt to examine all aspects of the North American invasion of ruffe, and to highlight the effects of similar introductions in Europe and Asia. The symposium, sponsored by the Minnesota and Michigan Sea Grant College programs, featured 48 oral and poster presentations and was held in Ann Arbor, Michigan, during 21-23 March 1997. Papers from the symposium are published in a special section of this issue of the Journal of Great Lakes Research.

Journal of Great Lakes Research↗
USGS2009

Northern Prairie Wildlife Research Center

The Northern Prairie Wildlife Research Center (NPWRC) conducts integrated research to fulfill the Department of the Interior's responsibilities to the Nation's natural resources. Located on 600 acres along the James River Valley near Jamestown, North Dakota, the NPWRC develops and disseminates scientific information needed to understand, conserve, and wisely manage the Nation's biological resources. Research emphasis is primarily on midcontinental plant and animal species and ecosystems of the United States. During the center's 40-year history, its scientists have earned an international reputation for leadership and expertise on the biology of waterfowl and grassland birds, wetland ecology and classification, mammalian behavior and ecology, grassland ecosystems, and application of statistics and geographic information systems. To address current science challenges, NPWRC scientists collaborate with researchers from other U.S. Geological Survey centers and disciplines (Biology, Geography, Geology, and Water) and with biologists and managers in the Department of the Interior (DOI), other Federal agencies, State agencies, universities, and nongovernmental organizations. Expanding upon its scientific expertise and leadership, the NPWRC is moving in new directions, including invasive plant species, restoration of native habitats, carbon sequestration and marketing, and ungulate management on DOI lands.

Fact Sheet↗
USGS2013

Conditions favouring Bromus tectorum dominance of endangered sagebrush steppe ecosystems

1. Ecosystem invasibility is determined by combinations of environmental variables, invader attributes, disturbance regimes, competitive abilities of resident species and evolutionary history between residents and disturbance regimes. Understanding the relative importance of each factor is critical to limiting future invasions and restoring ecosystems. 2. We investigated factors potentially controlling Bromus tectorum invasions into Artemisia tridentata ssp. wyomingensis communities across 75 sites in the Great Basin. We measured soil texture, cattle grazing intensity, gaps among perennial plants and plant cover including B. tectorum, biological soil crusts (BSCs) and bare soil. Using a priori knowledge, we developed a multivariate hypothesis of the susceptibility of Artemisia ecosystems to B. tectorum invasion and used the model to assess the relative importance of the factors driving the magnitude of such invasions. 3. Model results imply that bunchgrass community structure, abundance and composition, along with BSC cover, play important roles in controlling B. tectorum dominance. Evidence suggests abundant bunchgrasses limit invasions by limiting the size and connectivity of gaps between vegetation, and BSCs appear to limit invasions within gaps. Results also suggest that cattle grazing reduces invasion resistance by decreasing bunchgrass abundance, shifting bunchgrass composition, and thereby increasing connectivity of gaps between perennial plants while trampling further reduces resistance by reducing BSC. 4. Synthesis and applications. Grazing exacerbates Bromus tectorum dominance in one of North America's most endangered ecosystems by adversely impacting key mechanisms mediating resistance to invasion. If the goal is to conserve and restore resistance of these systems, managers should consider maintaining or restoring: (i) high bunchgrass cover and structure characterized by spatially dispersed bunchgrasses and small gaps between them; (ii) a diverse assemblage of bunchgrass species to maximize competitive interactions with B. tectorum in time and space; and (iii) biological soil crusts to limit B. tectorum establishment. Passive restoration by reducing cumulative cattle grazing may be one of the most effective means of achieving these three goals.

Journal of Applied Ecology↗
USGS2018

Trends in nonindigenous aquatic species richness in the United States reveal shifting spatial and temporal patterns of species introductions

Understanding the spatial and temporal dynamics underlying the introduction and spread of nonindigenous aquatic species (NAS) can provide important insights into the historical drivers of biological invasions and aid in forecasting future patterns of nonindigenous species arrival and spread. Increasingly, public databases of species observation records are being used to quantify changes in NAS distributions across space and time, and are becoming an important resource for researchers, managers, and policy-makers. Here we use publicly available data to describe trends in NAS introduction and spread across the conterminous United States over more than two centuries of observation records. Available data on first records of NAS reveal significant shifts in dominance of particular introduction patterns over time, both in terms of recipient regions and likely sources. These spatiotemporal trends at the continental scale may be subject to biases associated with regional variation in sampling effort, reporting, and data curation. We therefore also examined two additional metrics, the number of individual records and the spatial coverage of those records, which are likely to be more closely associated with sampling effort. Our results suggest that broad-scale patterns may mask considerable variation across regions, time periods, and even entities contributing to NAS sampling. In some cases, observed temporal shifts in species discovery may be influenced by dramatic fluctuations in the number and spatial extent of individual observations, reflecting the possibility that shifts in sampling effort may obscure underlying rates of NAS introduction.

Aquatic Invasions↗
USGS2019

Incorporating climate change into invasive species management: Insights from managers

Invasive alien species are likely to interact with climate change, thus necessitating management that proactively addresses both global changes. However, invasive species managers’ concerns about the effects of climate change, the degree to which they incorporate climate change into their management, and what stops them from doing so remain unknown. Therefore, we surveyed natural resource managers addressing invasive species across the U.S. about their priorities, concerns, and management strategies in a changing climate. Of the 211 managers we surveyed, most were very concerned about the influence of climate change on invasive species management, but their organizations were significantly less so. Managers reported that lack of funding and personnel limited their ability to effectively manage invasive species, while lack of information limited their consideration of climate change in decision-making. Additionally, managers prioritized research that identifies range-shifting invasive species and native communities resilient to invasions and climate change. Managers also reported that this information would be most effectively communicated through conversations, research summaries, and meetings/symposia. Despite the need for more information, 65% of managers incorporate climate change into their invasive species management through strategic planning, preventative management, changing treatment and control, and increasing education and outreach. These results show the potential for incorporating climate change into management, but also highlight a clear and pressing need for more targeted research, accessible science communication, and two-way dialogue between researchers and managers focused on invasive species and climate change.

Biological Invasions↗
USGS2011

Weeds of Hawaii’s lands devoted to watershed protection and biodiversity conservation: Role of biological control as the missing piece in an integrated pest management strategy

Despite Hawaii’s reputation as an extinction icon, significant biological resources remain, especially in watersheds, natural areas, and specialized edaphic sites (e.g., lava dry forest, coastal). While direct habitat destruction by humans continues, human-facilitated biological invaders are currently the primary agents of continuing degradation. The ability of invasive plants to have prolific seed production, efficient dispersal systems, and to become established in dense vegetation, complicated by Hawaii’s rugged topography, appears to render mechanical and chemical control as mere holding actions. Costly, ‘environmentally unfriendly’, and often ineffective, strategies using chemical and mechanical control on a large scale, despite the most valiant of efforts, can be viewed simply as attempts to buy time. Without increased levels of safely tested biological control, the seemingly inevitable result is the landscape level transformation of native forests, with potentially catastrophic consequences to cultural, biological, water, and economic resources. Increased levels of effective biological control for certain intractable invasive species appear to comprise a conspicuous ‘missing piece’ in our efforts to protect Hawaiian watersheds and other conservation lands.

Hawaii↗
USGS2007

Invasive plants and their ecological strategies: Prediction and explanation of woody plant invasion in New England

Effective management of introduced species requires the early identification of species that pose a significant threat of becoming invasive. To better understand the invasive ecology of species in New England, USA, we compiled a character data set with which to compare non-native species that are known invaders to non-native species that are not currently known to be invasive. In contrast to previous biological trait-based models, we employed a Bayesian hierarchical analysis to identify sets of plant traits associated with invasiveness for each of three growth forms (vines, shrubs, and trees). The resulting models identify a suite of 'invasive traits' highlighting the ecology associated with invasiveness for each of three growth forms. The most effective predictors of invasiveness that emerged from our model were 'invasive elsewhere', 'fast growth rate', 'native latitudinal range', and 'growth form'. The contrast among growth forms was pronounced. For example, 'wind dispersal' was positively correlated with invasiveness in trees, but negatively correlated in shrubs and vines. The predictive model was able to correctly classify invasive plants 67% of the time (22/33), and non-invasive plants 95% of the time (204/215). A number of potential future invasive species in New England that deserve management consideration were identified. ?? 2007 The Authors.

Diversity and Distributions↗
USGS2006

A landscape perspective of the stream corridor invasion and habitat characteristics of an exotic (Dioscorea oppositifolia) in a pristine watershed in Illinois

The spatial distribution of exotics across riparian landscapes is not uniform, and research elaborating the environmental constraints and dispersal behavior that underlie these patterns of distribution is warranted. This study examined the spatial distribution, growth patterns, and habitat constraints of populations of the invasive Dioscorea oppositifolia in a forested stream corridor of a tributary of Drury Creek in Giant City State Park, IL. The distribution of D. oppositifolia was determined at the watershed scale mainly by floodplain structure and connectivity. Populations of D. oppositifolia were confined to the floodplain, with overbank flooding from the stream. Dioscorea oppositifolia probably originates in disturbed areas upstream of natural corridors, and subsequently, the species disperses downstream into pristine canyons or ravines via bulbils dispersing in the water. In Giant City State Park, populations of D. oppositifolia were distributed on the floodplain across broad gradients of soil texture, light, slope, and potential radiation. The study also examined the longevity of bulbils in various micro-environments to illuminate strategies for the management of the species in invaded watersheds. After 1 year, the highest percentages of bulbils were viable under leaves, and much lower percentages were viable over leaves, in soil, and in the creek (76.0±6.8, 21.2±9.6, 21.6±3.6, and 5.2±5.2%), respectively. This study suggests that management procedures that reduce leaf litter on the forest floor (e.g., prescribed burning) could reduce the number of bulbils of D. oppositifolia stored in the watershed.

Illinois↗
USGS2024

Quantitative support for the benefits of proactive management for wildlife disease control

Finding effective pathogen mitigation strategies is one of the biggest challenges humans face today. In the context of wildlife, emerging infectious diseases have repeatedly caused widespread host morbidity and population declines of numerous taxa. In areas yet unaffected by a pathogen, a proactive management approach has the potential to minimize or prevent host mortality. However, typically critical information on disease dynamics in a novel host system is lacking, empirical evidence on efficacy of management interventions is limited, and there is a lack of validated predictive models. As such, quantitative support for identifying effective management interventions is largely absent, and the opportunity for proactive management is often missed. We considered the potential invasion of the chytrid fungus, Batrachochytrium salamandrivorans (Bsal), whose expected emergence in North America poses a severe threat to hundreds of salamander species in this global salamander biodiversity hotspot. We developed and parameterized a dynamic multistate occupancy model to forecast host and pathogen occurrence, following expected emergence of the pathogen, and evaluated the response of salamander populations to different management scenarios. Our model forecasted that taking no action is expected to be catastrophic to salamander populations. Proactive action was predicted to maximize host occupancy outcomes relative to wait-and-see reactive management, thus providing quantitative support for proactive management opportunities. The eradication of Bsal was unlikely under all the evaluated management options. Contrary to our expectations, even early pathogen detection had little effect on Bsal or host occupancy outcomes. Our results provide quantitative support that proactive management is the optimal strategy for promoting persistence of disease-threatened salamander populations. Our approach fills a critical gap by defining a framework for evaluating management options prior to pathogen invasion and can thus serve as a template for addressing novel disease threats that jeopardize wildlife and human health.

Conservation Biology↗
USGS2012

Wildlife and biological resources: Chapter 5 in A synthesis of aquatic science for management of Lakes Mead and Mohave

The creation of Lakes Mead and Mohave drastically changed habitats originally found along their region of the historical Colorado River. While still continuing to provide habitat conditions that support a rich diversity of species within the water, along shorelines, and in adjacent drainage areas, the reservoirs contain organisms that are both native and non-native to the Colorado River drainage (fig. 5-1). The diversity of species within these lakes continues to change with time due to changing habitat conditions, the invasion of non-native species, and extirpations of native species. From the bottom of the food web to the top predators, all organisms within the ecosystem are interconnected in food webs or food-chain networks. As non-native invasive species continue to be introduced into the lakes, alterations to the food web, species competition, and species predation likely will continue to change the ecosystem and populations of native organisms. Following an overview of the food web, this chapter summarizes information on aquatic and aquatic-dependent wildlife at Lakes Mead and Mohave and their relationships within the food web from members of lower trophic levels to the highest: phytoplankton, invertebrates, including zooplankton, and macroinvertebrates; fishes; and birds. The following sections describe the biological diversity, limiting factors, and ecological functions of these groups in Lake Mead, and to a lesser extent, in Lake Mohave.

Circular↗
USGS2021

A renewed philosophy about supplemental sea lamprey controls

Invasive sea lamprey ( Petromyzon marinus ) populations in the Laurentian Great Lakes have been reduced by up to 90% through the use of selective pesticides (lampricides) and physical sea lamprey barriers that block spawning migrations. Nevertheless, other control methods are needed to achieve integrated pest management objectives, delay biological resistance, and address societal pressure to reduce pesticide use and restore lotic connectivity through dam removals. Despite decades of research and scientific advances, new control tools that focus on controlling adult and juvenile life stages have been rare because tactics have not been cost-effective alternatives to lampricides and sea lamprey barriers. Here, we propose a renewed philosophy highlighting that new control methods need not be true alternatives to lampricides and sea lamprey barriers (i.e., have similar effectiveness), but instead can be useful as supplemental controls integrated with current methods, especially in places where current methods are less effective due to environmental or societal conditions. Current case studies pairing multiple supplemental controls together on two Lake Huron tributaries, the Black Mallard and Cheboygan Rivers, have shown promise in reducing sea lamprey reproductive success, the scope of lampricide treatments, and ultimately the number of juvenile sea lampreys produced. Additional case studies are planned and will be evaluated within a decade-long adaptive assessment plan.

Journal of Great Lakes Research↗
USGS2017

Monitoring Hawaiian biodiversity: Pilot study to assess changes to forest birds and their habitat

Biological diversity, or biodiversity, is the variety and abundance of species in a defined area, and is one of the oldest and most basic descriptions of biological communities. Understanding how populations and communities are structured and change over space and time in response to internal and external forces is a management priority. Effective management practices and conservation strategies depend on our understanding of the relationship between changes in biodiversity and ecological drivers such as invasive species, land use and climate change. To demonstrate how changes in biodiversity may be monitored over a large (400 km2) tract of native forest habitat, we compared bird and plant community composition and structure in an upper montane region of Hawai‘i Island originally surveyed in 1977 as part of the Hawai‘i Forest Bird Survey (Scott et al. 1986) with a comprehensive sample of the same region in 2015. Our findings suggest that across a region spanning an elevation range of 600 to 2,000 m considerable changes occurred in the plant and bird communities between 1977 and 2015. Endemic and indigenous plants species richness (i.e., total number of species) decreased dramatically in the low and middle elevations below an invasive weed front, whereas naturalized plant species richness did not change between the two periods at any elevation. Endemic bird abundance decreased and two species were lost in the lower elevations (< 1,100 m) between 1977 and 2015, while naturalized bird abundance and the numbers of species increased in the same area. In addition to changes in community composition, the structure of the forest showed evidence of changes in dominant and sub-dominant tree canopy cover, shrub and herbaceous cover, dominant tree canopy height, and matted fern cover. Biodiversity monitoring helps to define specific conservation targets and to measure progress towards reaching those targets. It is difficult to ascribe causative factors to a change in biodiversity without directly manipulating the environment. Forest habitat in a variety of settings (i.e., islands and regions with differing land-use histories and elevation ranges), however, can provide opportunities to evaluate the influence of ecological drivers. Declines in native bird biodiversity in low-elevation areas may be attributed to invasive species as land use and climate conditions have remained relatively similar over the 40-year period. Thus, the shift from an endemic-naturalized co-dominated community in 1977 to one dominated by naturalized, alien birds in 2015, and reduction in native bird abundance over that period, may reflect increasing dominance by naturalized plants within this forested area. Inferences drawn from analyses of region-wide surveys, especially with replicate datasets, will facilitate the identification of broad-scale changes in biodiversity, and provide a needed current datum in Hawaiian plant and bird biodiversity monitoring.

Hawaii↗
USGS2024

Life on land needs fresh water (SDG 15)

Terrestrial ecosystems, such as forests, and the inland waters within them, such as bogs, floodplains, lakes, rivers, springs, and wetlands, are foundational for life on earth. They provide critical ecosystem services such as carbon storage and sequestration, clean water, primary production, pollination, soil fertility, and erosion control. The human footprint on terrestrial and freshwater ecosystems continues to expand, imposing pressures from deforestation, invasive species, climate change, overexploitation of species, and land conversion for agricultural production. The United Nations’ Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 15 (Life on Land) aims to address these changes by promoting the protection, restoration, and sustainable use of terrestrial ecosystems globally. Freshwater ecosystem services and freshwater biological diversity are inherently part of, and critical to, achieving SDG 15; yet they remain absent from the goal and largely hidden within the targets and indicators. Here, we aim to highlight the role and importance of freshwater ecosystems in achieving SDG 15. We identify the six major themes of SDG 15 in which freshwater ecosystems have a preeminent role: (1) increasing protected areas, (2) sustainably managing forests, (3) reducing land degradation, (4) protecting threatened and trafficked species, (5) reducing invasive species, and (6) mobilizing resources. For each theme, we detail (a) freshwater connections to the topic, (b) key opportunities in addressing freshwater components, and (c) a relevant case study highlighting cobenefits for terrestrial ecosystems from actions targeting freshwater ecosystems. We conclude with opportunities for integrative terrestrial–aquatic monitoring, management, and policy actions. Ultimately, achieving the targets of SDG 15 requires recognition of terrestrial–aquatic interdependencies and prioritization of freshwater ecosystems and biodiversity.

Book chapter↗
USGS2020

A synthesis of the biology and ecology of sculpin species in the Laurentian Great Lakes and implications for the adaptive capacity of the benthic ecosystem

The Laurentian Great Lakes have experienced recent ecosystem changes that could lead to reductions in adaptive capacity and ultimately a loss of biodiversity and production throughout the food web. Observed changes in Great Lakes benthic communities include declines of native species and widespread success of invasive species like dreissenid mussels in all but Lake Superior. Understanding the ecology of native benthic deepwater preyfish and the reasons for their declines is important for predicting future losses in adaptive capacity and diversity, as well as managing the Great Lakes ecosystem to avoid such losses. Native sculpin species ( Cottus bairdii , C. cognatus , C. ricei , Myoxocephalus thompsonii ) historically were among the most abundant of the Great Lakes native deepwater benthic preyfish community and are an important link between offshore benthic and pelagic food webs. With one exception, these species have declined in abundance throughout the Great Lakes in recent years, but relatively little is known about their biology and ecology. This review synthesizes the available knowledge for the Great Lakes sculpin species and provides suggestions for future research efforts, which include understanding reproductive ecology and spawning behavior, connectivity and dispersal of populations, early life history, and influences of interactions with native and non-native species.

Great Lakes↗
USGS2024

Combining storm flood water level and topography to prioritize inter-basin transfer of non-native aquatic species in the United States

Flooded areas can create temporary connections between adjacent drainages and are a relatively understudied pathway for the spread of aquatic invasive species. The Nonindigenous Aquatic Species Database’s Flood and Storm Tracker maps were developed to help natural resource managers with post-storm aquatic invasive species detection and assessment efforts. As of the summer of 2023, 16 Flood and Storm Tracker maps have been published from hurricanes and flooding events in the United States and territorial islands. Three regions along the coasts of the Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic Ocean had overlapping areas of repeated flood impacts, and fifteen pairs of adjacent river basins were potentially connected during floods. Each map had a median of 77 non-native freshwater taxa and a median of three U.S. prohibited species within their respective flood-impacted area. The Flood and Storm Tracker maps provide resource managers with information about new aquatic invasions due to potential flood dispersal that can assist with early detection and rapid response systems.

Biological Invasions↗
USGS2018

Evaluating GPS biologging technology for studying spatial ecology of large constricting snakes

Background : GPS telemetry has revolutionized the study of animal spatial ecology in the last two decades. Until recently, it has mainly been deployed on large mammals and birds, but the technology is rapidly becoming miniaturized, and applications in diverse taxa are becoming possible. Large constricting snakes are top predators in their ecosystems, and accordingly they are often a management priority, whether their populations are threatened or invasive. Fine-scale GPS tracking datasets could greatly improve our ability to understand and manage these snakes, but the ability of this new technology to deliver high-quality data in this system is unproven. In order to evaluate GPS technology in large constrictors, we GPS-tagged 13 Burmese pythons ( Python bivittatu s) in Everglades National Park and deployed an additional 7 GPS tags on stationary platforms to evaluate habitat-driven biases in GPS locations. Both python and test platform GPS tags were programmed to attempt a GPS fix every 90 min. Results : While overall fix rates for the tagged pythons were low (18.1%), we were still able to obtain an average of 14.5 locations/animal/week, a large improvement over once-weekly VHF tracking. We found overall accuracy and precision to be very good (mean accuracy = 7.3 m, mean precision = 12.9 m), but a very few imprecise locations were still recorded (0.2% of locations with precision > 1.0 km). We found that dense vegetation did decrease fix rate, but we concluded that the low observed fix rate was also due to python microhabitat selection underground or underwater. Half of our recovered pythons were either missing their tag or the tag had malfunctioned, resulting in no data being recovered. Conclusions : GPS biologging technology is a promising tool for obtaining frequent, accurate, and precise locations of large constricting snakes. We recommend future studies couple GPS telemetry with frequent VHF locations in order to reduce bias and limit the impact of catastrophic failures on data collection, and we recommend improvements to GPS tag design to lessen the frequency of these failures.

Florida↗
USGS2019

Activity center selection by northern spotted owls

The federally threatened northern spotted owl ( Strix occidentalis caurina ) has been intensively studied across its range, and habitat needs for the species have influenced forest management in northwestern North America for decades. Dense forest canopies are often reported in the scientific literature and agency management plans as an important habitat attribute for spotted owls, though the means of measuring forest canopy and interpreting species requirements vary across studies and more importantly, among management plans. We used light detection and ranging (lidar) measurements of canopy cover, canopy surface heterogeneity, and upper canopy surface connectivity, and an index of the presence of a competitive invasive species, the barred owl ( S. varia ), in multinomial discrete choice models using a Bayesian framework to evaluate selection of forest cover types by spotted owls in Oregon, USA, 2008–2015. We designated yearly activity centers based on the most biologically significant observation during the nesting season (Mar–Aug), generally centered on the nest tree. Spotted owls selected activity centers with more canopy cover and higher heterogeneity of the canopy surface within 100 m than was available within their territories. The average proportion of canopy cover within 100 m of a spotted owl activity center was 0.79 ± 0.12 (SD; range = 0.34–0.99). The presence of barred owls did not explain variability in selection of spotted owl activity centers, but barred owls might not affect third‐order habitat selection within territories, or our index was too spatially coarse to detect these effects on spotted owl resource selection. We demonstrate that lidar provides researchers and managers with a tool that can accurately measure forest canopies over large areas, and assist in mapping spotted owl habitat.

Oregon↗
USGS2019

Winter climate change and the poleward range expansion of a tropical invasive tree (Brazilian pepper ‐ Shinus terebinthifolius)

Winter climate change is expected to lead to the tropicalization of temperate ecosystems, where tropical species expand poleward in response to a decrease in the intensity and duration of winter temperature extremes (i.e., freeze events). In the southeastern United States, freezing temperatures control the northern range limits of many invasive non‐native species. Here, we examine the influence of freezing temperatures and winter climate change on the northern range limits of an invasive non‐native tree — Schinus terebenthifolius (Brazilian pepper). Since introduction in the 1800s, Brazilian pepper has invaded ecosystems throughout south and central Florida to become the state's most widespread non‐native plant species. Although Brazilian pepper is sensitive to freezing temperatures, temperature controls on its northern distribution have not been adequately quantified. We used temperature and plant occurrence data to quantify the sensitivity of Brazilian pepper to freezing temperatures. Then, we examined the potential for range expansion under three alternative future climate scenarios (+2°C, +4°C, and +6°C). Our analyses identify a strong nonlinear sigmoidal relationship between minimum temperature and Brazilian pepper presence, with a discrete threshold temperature occurring near ‐11°C. Our future scenario analyses indicate that, in response to warming winter temperatures, Brazilian pepper is expected to expand northward and transform ecosystems in north Florida and across much of the Gulf of Mexico and south Atlantic coasts of the United States. These results underscore the importance of early detection and rapid response efforts to identify and manage the northward invasion of Brazilian pepper in response to climate change. Looking more broadly, our work highlights the need to anticipate and prepare for the tropicalization of temperate ecosystems by tropical invasive species.

Florida, Georgia, South Carolina↗