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The United States National Climate Assessment - Alaska Technical Regional Report

The Alaskan landscape is changing, both in terms of effects of human activities as a consequence of increased population, social and economic development and their effects on the local and broad landscape; and those effects that accompany naturally occurring hazards such as volcanic eruptions, earthquakes, and tsunamis. Some of the most prevalent changes, however, are those resulting from a changing climate, with both near term and potential upcoming effects expected to continue into the future. Alaska's average annual statewide temperatures have increased by nearly 4°F from 1949 to 2005, with significant spatial variability due to the large latitudinal and longitudinal expanse of the State. Increases in mean annual temperature have been greatest in the interior region, and smallest in the State's southwest coastal regions. In general, however, trends point toward increases in both minimum temperatures, and in fewer extreme cold days. Trends in precipitation are somewhat similar to those in temperature, but with more variability. On the whole, Alaska saw a 10-percent increase in precipitation from 1949 to 2005, with the greatest increases recorded in winter. The National Climate Assessment has designated two well-established scenarios developed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (Nakicenovic and others, 2001) as a minimum set that technical and author teams considered as context in preparing portions of this assessment. These two scenarios are referred to as the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios A2 and B1 scenarios, which assume either a continuation of recent trends in fossil fuel use (A2) or a vigorous global effort to reduce fossil fuel use (B1). Temperature increases from 4 to 22°F are predicted (to 2070-2099) depending on which emissions scenario (A2 or B1) is used with the least warming in southeast Alaska and the greatest in the northwest. Concomitant with temperature changes, by the end of the 21st century the growing season is expected to lengthen by 15-25 days in some areas of Alaska, with much of that corresponding with earlier spring snow melt. Future projections of precipitation (30-80 years) over Alaska show an increase across the State, with the largest changes in the northwest and smallest in the southeast. Because of increasing temperatures and growing season length, however, increased precipitation may not correspond with increased water availability, due to temperature related increased evapotranspiration. The extent of snow cover in the Northern Hemisphere has decreased by about 10 percent since the late 1960s, with stronger trends noted since the late 1980s. Alaska has experienced similar trends, with a strong decrease in snow cover extent occurring in May. When averaged across the State, the disappearance of snow in the spring has occurred from 4 to 6 days earlier per decade, and snow return in fall has occurred approximately 2 days later per decade. This change appears to be driven by climate warming rather than a decrease in winter precipitation, with average winter temperatures also increasing by about 2.5°F. The extent of sea ice has been declining, as has been widely published in both national and scientific media outlets, and is projected to continue to decline during this century. The observed decline in annual sea ice minimum extent (September) has occurred more rapidly than was predicted by climate models and has been accompanied by decreases in ice thickness and in the presence of multi-year ice. This decrease was first documented by satellite imagery in the late 1970s for the Bering and Chukchi Seas, and is projected to continue, with the potential for the disappearance of summer sea ice by mid- to late century. A new phenomenon that was not reported in previous assessments is ocean acidification. Uptake of carbon dioxide (CO2) by oceans has a significant effect on marine biogeochemistry by reducing seawater pH. Ocean acidification is of particular concern in Alaska, because cold sea water absorbs CO2 more rapidly than warm water, and a decrease in sea ice extent has allowed increased sea surface exposure and more uptake of CO2 into these northern waters. Ocean acidification will likely affect the ability of organisms to produce and maintain shell material, such as aragonite or calcite (calcium carbonate minerals structured from carbonate ions), required by many shelled organism, from mollusks to corals to microscopic organisms at the base of the food chain. Direct biological effects in Alaska further along the food chain have yet to be studied and may vary among organisms. Some of the potentially most significant changes to Alaska that could result from a changing climate are the effects on the terrestrial cryosphere - particularly glaciers and permafrost. Alaskan glaciers are changing at a rapid rate, the primary driver appearing to be temperature. Statewide, glaciers lost 13 cubic miles of ice annually from the 1950s to the 1990s, and that rate doubled in the 2000s. However, like temperature and precipitation, glacier ice loss is not spatially uniform; most glaciers are losing mass, yet some are growing (for example Hubbard Glacier in southeast Alaska). Alaska glaciers with the most rapid loss are those terminating in sea water or lakes. With this increasing rate of melt, the contribution of surplus fresh water entering into the oceans from Alaska's glaciers, as well as those in neighboring British Columbia, Canada, is approximately 20 percent of that contributed by the Greenland Ice Sheet. Permafrost degradation (that is, the thawing of ice-rich soils) is currently (2012) impacting infrastructure and surface-water availability in areas of both discontinuous and continuous ground ice. Over most of the State, the permafrost is warming, with increasing temperatures broadly consistent with increasing air temperatures. On the Arctic coastal plain of Alaska, permafrost temperatures showed some cooling in the 1950s and 1960s but have been followed by a roughly 5°F increase since the 1980s. Many areas in the continuous permafrost zone have seen increases in temperature in the seasonally active layer and a decrease in re-freezing rates. Changes in the discontinuous permafrost zone are initially much more observable due to the resulting thermokarst terrain (land surface formed as ice rich permafrost thaws), most notable in boreal forested areas. Climate warming in Alaska has potentially broad implications for human health and food security, especially in rural areas, as well as increased risk for injury with changing winter ice conditions. Additionally, such warming poses the potential for increasing damage to existing water and sanitation facilities and challenges for development of new facilities, especially in areas underlain by permafrost. Non-infectious and infectious diseases also are becoming an increasing concern. For example, from 1999 to 2006 there was a statistically significant increase in medical claims for insectbite reactions in five of six regions of Alaska, with the largest percentage increase occurring in the most northern areas. The availability and quality of subsistence foods, normally considered to be very healthy, may change due to changing access, changing habitats, and spoilage of meat in food storage cellars. These and other trends and potential outcomes resulting from a changing climate are further described in this report. In addition, we describe new science leadership activities that have been initiated to address and provide guidance toward conducting research aimed at making available information for policy makers and land management agencies to better understand, address, and plan for changes to the local and regional environment. This report cites data in both metric and standard units due to the contributions by numerous authors and the direct reference of their data.

Alaska↗

Monitoring dust storms and mapping landscape vulnerability to wind erosion using satellite and ground-based digital images

Wind-induced dust emission in the southwestern United States is important regionally because of its impact on human health and safety and its influence on ecosystem dynamics. Factors that control dust emission include wind velocity, sediment availability, and surface conditions (e.g., vegetation type and degree of cover, surface crusts and armoring, and soil moisture - Gillette and Passi, 1988; Gillette and Hanson 1989; Marticorena and others, 1997). Emission of dust from the land surface is a process of degradation that depletes fine-grained minerals needed for optimum vegetation growth, creates potentially hazardous air quality for humans on a local and regional scale, and can affect climate on a regional and global scale. Future climatic change may lead to increased aridification of southwestern deserts, reducing protective vegetation and enhancing dust emissions, thereby increasing the impacts of dust in this region. It is currently not well understood how climate change in the Southwest will affect dust emission and, in turn, how dust emission will affect climate and human health. As part of a study of landscape vulnerability to wind erosion and the potential impacts of dust, we are investigating remotely sensed satellite, airborne, and ground-based image data to determine their ability to detect and monitor active dust storms, as well as to map areas vulnerable to wind erosion. A main objective has been to investigate the use of high temporal resolution digital images collected by satellite and a long-term, ground-based digital camera station, along with wind data collected at our field sites, to detect, monitor, and analyze the location, size, frequency, duration, and transport patterns of dust storms in the Mojave Desert of the southwestern United States. Generally, many current methods and instruments are not developed to the level required to routinely detect and monitor dust storms or to develop models that accurately predict total dust flux and emission rates. Improving these capabilities is critical to generating baseline datasets for assessments of landscape vulnerability to future climate change. On going modeling efforts are attempting to identify meteorological parameters and soil surface roughness parameters needed to predict the vulnerability of various geomorphic substrates to wind erosion. Datasets to calibrate model results are difficult to collect and typically not available. Results of our studies, incorporating digital image maps and new methods using remotely sensed images to identify and monitor dust sources, will be useful for the calibration of dust-emission models of the Mojave Desert and other arid environments. At the same time, we are exploring new methods to map the amount, sizes, and spatial distribution of particles at the surface to enable detailed wind-erosion vulnerability mapping at a regional scale.

California↗

Transport and transformations of chlorinated-solvent contamination in a saprolite and fractured rock aquifer near a former wastewater-treatment plant, Greenville, South Carolina

The transport and fate of chlorinated-ethene contamination was investigated in a fractured-rock aquifer downgradient from a wastewater-treatment plant at a gas-turbine manufacturing facility in Greenville, South Carolina. A vapor-diffusion-sampler technique, developed for this investigation, located fracture zones that discharged contaminated ground water to surface water. The distribution of chlorinated compounds and sulfate, comparison of borehole geophysical data, driller's logs, and the aquifer response to pumpage allowed subsurface contaminant-transport pathways to be delineated.The probable contaminant-transport pathway from the former aeration lagoon was southward. The probable pathway of contaminant transport from the former sludge lagoon was southward to and beneath Little Rocky Creek. South of the creek, the major pathway of contaminant transport appeared to be at a depth of approximately 80 to 107 feet below land surface. The contaminant-transport pathway from the former industrial lagoon was not readily discernible from existing data. A laboratory investigation, as well as examination of ground- water-chemistry data collected during this investigation and concentrations of chlorinated compounds collected during previous investigations,indicates that higher chlorinated compounds are being degraded to lower-chlorinated compounds in the contaminated aquifer. The approaches used in this investigation, as well as the findings, have potential application to other fractured-rock aquifers contaminated by chlorinated ethenes.

South Carolina↗

Water resources on and near the Nottawaseppi Huron band of Potawatomi indian tribal lands, Calhoun County, Michigan, 2000-03

The Nottawaseppi Huron Band of Potawatomi Indians in Calhoun County, Michigan is concerned about the water quality and quantity of streams in and around tribal lands and of shallow ground water. The tribe wanted to establish a database that included streamflow, stage, and water quality of local streams and quality of ground water from wells belonging to the tribe and its members. Concerned about the effects of long-term agricultural activity and increasing numbers of singlefamily dwellings being constructed within the watershed both on and off the reservation, the tribe wants to develop a water-resources management plan. U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) measured streamflow and installed staff gages tied into local datum on three tributaries of the St. Joseph River that cross tribal lands. Water-quality samples were collected from the sites under a variety of flow regimes from spring to fall during 2000-03. Stage-streamflow rating curves were constructed for Pine Creek and Athens & Indian Creek Drain after a number of discharge measurements were made and a thorough basin analysis was completed. Daily streamflow for Pine Creek near Athens was estimated for the period from May 2000 through September 2003. USGS collected 12 water samples at Pine Creek near Athens, Athens & Indian Creek Drain, and an unnamed tributary to Pine Creek during October 2000 through September 2003. Physical properties were measured, and the streams were sampled for major ions, nutrients, trace elements, caffeine, and herbicides/pesticides and their breakdown products (degradates). The tribe also measured physical properties weekly at the three sites during each growing season for the study period. Surface water at the three sites can be classified as hard, with calcium carbonate concentrations exceeding 180 milligrams per liter (mg/L). Concentrations of calcium, magnesium, chloride, and dissolved solids are typical of the area. There were 68 detections of 17 pesticides, degradates, and caffeine. Atrazine and metolachlor were detected in all samples, and the atrazine degradate deethylatrazine was detected in all samples from Pine Creek and Athens & Indian Creek Drain. Another atrazine degradate (2-hydroxy-atrazine, or OIET) was detected five of the six times that it was included in the analyses. A single sample collected from Athens & Indian Creek Drain in May 2001 had relatively higher concentrations of acetochlor, atrazine, CIAT (deethylatrazine), and diuron than the other sampling sites did during the study. Analysis for various species of mercury was completed on samples collected at Pine Creek and Athens & Indian Creek Drain in July 2003, and results were similar to those typical of unimpaired streams in the Midwest. None of the surface-water sites had major ion, nutrient, or trace-element concentrations that exceeded Michigan Department of Environmental Quality standards for nonpotable surface water. USGS also collected 11 ground-water samples from 7 wells on or adjacent to the traditional reservation in 2003. Two wells were sampled twice, and a single well was sampled three times, in order to document any chemical changes that might have occurred as a result of aquifer recharge, which most typically occurs in late winter to spring in the southern Lower Peninsula of Michigan. Samples were analyzed for 184 pesticides and degradates and caffeine. There were five detections of four pesticides or degradates, but none of the detected chemicals are included in current U.S. Environmental Protection Agency drinking-water standards. The remaining 181 analytes were below laboratory reporting limits.

Michigan↗

Estimating black bear density in New Mexico using noninvasive genetic sampling coupled with spatially explicit capture-recapture methods

During the 2004–2005 to 2015–2016 hunting seasons, the New Mexico Department of Game and Fish (NMDGF) estimated black bear abundance (Ursus americanus) across the state by coupling density estimates with the distribution of primary habitat generated by Costello et al. (2001). These estimates have been used to set harvest limits. For example, a density of 17 bears/100 km2 for the Sangre de Cristo and Sacramento Mountains and 13.2 bears/100 km2 for the Sandia Mountains were used to set harvest levels. The advancement and widespread acceptance of non-invasive sampling and mark-recapture methods, prompted the NMDGF to collaborate with the New Mexico Cooperative Fish and Wildlife Research Unit and New Mexico State University to update their density estimates for black bear populations in select mountain ranges across the state. We established 5 study areas in 3 mountain ranges: the northern (NSC; sampled in 2012) and southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains (SSC; sampled in 2013), the Sandia Mountains (Sandias; sampled in 2014), and the northern (NSacs) and southern Sacramento Mountains (SSacs; both sampled in 2014). We collected hair samples from black bears using two concurrent non-invasive sampling methods, hair traps and bear rubs. We used a gender marker and a suite of microsatellite loci to determine the individual identification of hair samples that were suitable for genetic analysis. We used these data to generate mark-recapture encounter histories for each bear and estimated density in a spatially explicit capture-recapture framework (SECR). We constructed a suite of SECR candidate models using sex, elevation, land cover type, and time to model heterogeneity in detection probability and the spatial scale over which detection probability declines. We used Akaike’s Information Criterion corrected for small sample size (AICc) to rank and select the most supported model from which we estimated density. We set 554 hair traps, 117 bear rubs and collected 4,083 hair samples. We identified 725 (367 M, 358 F) individuals; the sex ratio for each study area was approximately equal. Our density estimates varied within and among mountain ranges with an estimated density of 21.86 bears/100 km2 (95% CI: 17.83 – 26.80) for the NSC, 19.74 bears/100 km2 (95% CI: 13.77 – 28.30) in the SSC, 25.75 bears/100 km2 (95% CI: 13.22 – 50.14) in the Sandias, 21.86 bears/100 km2 (95% CI: 17.83 – 26.80) in the NSacs, and 16.55 bears/100 km2 (95% CI: 11.64 – 23.53) in the SSacs. Overall detection probability for hair traps and bear rubs, combined, was low across all study areas and ranged from 0.00001 to 0.02. We speculate that detection probabilities were affected by failure of some hair samples to produce a complete genotype due to UV degradation of DNA, and our inability to set and check some sampling devices due to wildfires in the SSC. Ultraviolet radiation levels are particularly high in New Mexico compared to other states where NGS methods have been used because New Mexico receives substantial amounts of sunshine, is relatively high in elevation (1,200 m – 4,000 m), and is at a lower latitude. Despite these sampling difficulties, we were able to produce density estimates for New Mexico black bear populations with levels of precision comparable to estimated black bear densities made elsewhere in the U.S. Our ability to generate reliable black bear density estimates for 3 New Mexico mountain ranges is attributable to our use of a statistically robust study design and analytical method. There are multiple factors that need to be considered when developing future SECR-based density estimation projects. First, the spatial extent of the population of interest and the smallest average home range size must be determined; these will dictate size of the trapping array and spacing necessary between hair traps. The number of technicians needed and access to the study areas will also influence configuration of the trapping array. We believe shorter sampling occasions could be implemented to reduce degradation of DNA due to UV radiation; this might help increase amplification rates and thereby increase both the number of unique individuals identified and the number of recaptures, improving the precision of the density estimates. A pilot study may be useful to determine the length of time hair samples can remain in the field prior to collection. In addition, researchers may consider setting hair traps and bear rubs in more shaded areas (e.g., north facing slopes) to help reduce exposure to UV radiation. To reduce the sampling interval it will be necessary to either hire more field personnel or decrease the number of hair traps per sampling session. Both of these will enhance detection of long-range movement events by individual bears, increase initial capture and recapture rates, and improve precision of the parameter estimates. We recognize that all studies are constrained by limited resources, however, increasing field personnel would also allow a larger study area to be sampled or enable higher trap density. In conclusion, we estimated the density of black bears in 5 study areas within 3 mountains ranges of New Mexico. Our estimates will aid the NMDGF in setting sustainable harvest limits. Along with estimates of density, information on additional demographic rates (e.g., survival rates and reproduction) and the potential effects that climate change and future land use may have on the demography of black bears may also help inform management of black bears in New Mexico, and may be considered as future areas for research.

New Mexico↗

Application of a data-limited stock assessment model to understand the historical population of cisco in Lake Erie

Historically, cisco (Coregonus artedi) supported one of the largest commercial fisheries in Lake Erie with over 25 million kilograms landed in a single year during the fisheries’ peak in 1912. Like many other coregonines in the Laurentian Great Lakes, the Lake Erie cisco population eventually collapsed and is now considered extirpated. Management interest in restoring coregonine abundance and diversity across the Great Lakes motivated the development of a multi-agency, science-based framework aimed at restoring or enhancing populations. As part of that framework, we applied a data-limited model (depletion-based stock reduction analysis) to a reconstructed catch series to estimate historical levels of abundance of cisco in Lake Erie. Estimated historical carrying capacity was 171 million kilograms (66.5 kg/ha) and estimated annual exploitation was as high as 70 %. Model projections suggested the population should have rebuilt following a fishery collapse in 1925; however, the fishery remained depressed and cisco disappeared from Lake Erie despite the end of targeted exploitation in 1965. Other factors, such as habitat degradation and invasive species, are believed to have played a part in impeding recovery of cisco. The results of this study could be used in setting potential restoration targets for Lake Erie cisco given current conditions. The likelihood of achieving recovery targets based on historical population size will be dependent on the suitability of current conditions for sustaining the population.

Lake Erie↗

Economic analysis of critical habitat designation for the desert tortoise (Mojave population)

The U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service emergency 1isted the Mojave population of the desert tortoise as endangered on August 4, 1989. The Mojave population formally was listed as threatened on April 2, 1990. The Endangered Species Act of 1973, as amended, requires that the economic benefits and costs and other relevant effects of critical habitat designation be considered. The Secretary of the Interior may exclude from designation areas where the costs of designation are greater than the benefits, unless the exclusion would result in extinction of the species. Desert tortoises are threatened by an accumulation of human-and disease-related mortality accompanied by habitat destruction, degradation, and fragmentation. Many desert tortoises are illegally collected for pets, food, and commercial trade. Others are accidentally struck and killed by vehicles on roads and highways or are killed by gunshot or vehicles traveling off-highway. Raven predation on hatchling desert tortoises has increased as raven populations in the desert have risen. An upper respiratory tract disease is suspected to be a major cause of mortality in the western Mojave Desert. This presumably incurable affliction presumably is thought to be spread through the release of infected tortoises into the desert. The Service has proposed designating critical habitat in nine counties within four states. The 12 critical habitat units encompass 6.4 million acres of land, more than 80% federally owned. This region is economically and demographically diverse. Most of the land is sparsely settled and characterized as a hot desert ecosystem. Major industries in the region include entertainment and lodging (primarily in Las Vegas), property development to accommodate the rapid population growth, and services. Millions of rural acres in the region are leased by the federal government for livestock grazing and used for mining. Overall economic benefits to the affected states derived from cattle and sheep grazing in the hot desert areas are minimal and, according to a recent U.S. General Accounting Office study (1991), local economies do not depend on the grazing of public lands for economic survival. The economic analysis describes the economy in 1990, prior to designation, and estimates the effects of designation. The report estimates those incremental effects attributable to critical habitat designation. Impacts attributable to listing the species were not considered in this analysis. Although critical habitat units have been designated in nine counties, two counties are omitted from the economic analysis because of the small proportion of critical habitat acreage they include. Three key activities (cattle grazing, mineral extraction, and off-road vehicle use) were studied in detail. Even if livestock grazing and commercial off-road racing events were eliminated in the proposed critical habitat units, the potential incremental regional economic impacts would be extremely small. The findings in the report do not include the assumption that mining would be eliminated from critical habitat units, but rather that consultation may result in added mitigation and/or relocation of features. Studies show that society will realize benefits from preservation of species and ecosystems. Survey-based studies confirm that benefits exist and are substantial in size, although these benefits often are not measured in traditional economic markets. The total benefit to society of desert tortoise preservation includes several components. Biodiversity in the Mojave and Colorado Deserts will be improved, some recreation values may increase, and gains in intrinsic value will be realized. Critical habitat designation should result in the loss of fewer than 425 total jobs in the seven counties. These include 340 direct ranching jobs and 85 indirect jobs in other industries. This estimated employment loss will not be permanent for most laborers, it is anticipated that over 85% will be reemployed within two years. The economic consequences of designating critical habitat includes reduced ranch profits in the seven counties of $4,470,000 [the estimated permanent decrease in ranch profits, capitalized at 10% for a 50-year period, in accordance with the methodology of River, et al. (1978)]. Second, the federal government will compensate allottees with a one-time payment estimated at $376,000 for the loss of permanent improvements to grazing lands (pending BLM administrative decisions of partially affected allotments). Finally, discontinuing grazing fees will result in an annual reduction of $170,000 in collected grazing fees that are divided among range improvements, the Federal Treasury, and local governments.

California, Nevada↗

The use of scenario analysis to assess water ecosystem services in response to future land use change in the Willamette River Basin, Oregon

Human pressures on the natural resources of the United States have resulted in many unintended changes in our ecosystems, e.g., loss of biodiversity, habitat degradation, increases in the number of endangered species, and increases in contamination and water pollution. Environmental managers are concerned about broad-scale changes in land use and landscape pattern and their cumulative impact on hydrologic and ecological processes that affect stream conditions. The type of land use and land cover has direct consequences for most ecosystem services, including water quantity and water quality, erosion control, and biodiversity. As human pressure continues to increase, ecosystem services worldwide are projected to suffer continued loss and degradation, thus reducing the capacity of ecosystems to provide essential goods and services that contribute to human well-being (MEA 2005). The ability to assess, report, and forecast the life support functions of ecosystems is absolutely critical to our capacity to make informed decisions which will maintain the sustainable nature of our environmental services and secure these resources into the future. This study presents an integrated approach to identify areas with potential water quality problems as a result of land cover change projected by stakeholders within a moderately large river basin in the Pacific Northwest (USA). A process-based hydrologic watershed model was used to examine the contribution of land use/land cover to sediment yield, and nitrate and phosphorous loadings, and identify subwatersheds within the Willamette River basin that would be most affected in the year 2050 relative to three possible future scenarios which include inherent differences related to conservation, existing planning trends, and open development. Thus, the objective of this study was to evaluate the effects of alternative future scenarios that describe varying degrees of urban development and human use on hydrological response related to water quality. Results of this study suggest that the amount of forest along streams and agriculture consistently explained a high percentage of variation in nutrients. The AGWA-SWAT model was used to simulate change in sediment yield, nitrate and phosphorus transported with surface runoff for the three future scenarios. With regard to nitrate, the greatest increase was associated with subwatersheds with agricultural land use and urban areas. Although the model predicted some improvement in basin headwaters for all scenarios, nitrate loadings are expected to decrease under the conservation scenario. The largest decrease was observed in the Coast Range. With regard to phosphorous loadings, the lowest reduction was observed in subwatersheds draining predominantly forest areas. The greatest increase was observed under the open development scenario in subwatersheds with agricultural land use. Urbanization and agriculture are presumed to be the major environmental stressors affecting watershed condition of the Willamette River Basin.

Oregon↗

Reforestation of bottomland hardwoods and the issue of woody species diversity

Bottomland hardwood forests in the southcentral United States have been cleared extensively for agriculture, and many of the remaining forests are fragmented and degraded. During the last decade, however, approximately 75,000 ha of land-mainly agricultural fields-have been replanted or contracted for replanting, with many more acres likely to be reforested in the near future. The approach used in most reforestation projects to date has been to plant one to three overstory tree species, usually Quercus spp. (oaks), and to rely on natural dispersal for the establishment of other woody species. I critique this practice by two means. First, a brief literature review demonstrates that moderately high woody species diversity occurs in natural bottomland hardwood forests in the region. This review, which relates diversity to site characteristics, serves as a basis for comparison with stands established by means of current reforestation practices. Second, I reevaluate data on the invasion of woody species from an earlier study of 10 reforestation projects in Mississippi,with the goal of assessing the likelihood that stands with high woody species diversity will develop. I show that natural invasion cannot always be counted on to produce a diverse stand, particularly on sites more than about 60 m from an existing forest edge. I then make several recommendations for altering current reforestation pactices in order to establish stands with greater woody species diversity, a more natural appearance,and a more positive environmental impact at scales larger than individual sites.

Restoration Ecology↗

Sediment characterization and dynamics in Lake Pontchartrain, Louisiana

Lake Pontchartrain in southeastern Louisiana is the largest of several shallow estuaries that together cover over 15,000 km 2 . Wetlands, forests, and large urban areas surround the lake. Primary transport mechanisms of sediments to Lake Pontchartrain include urban runoff, major diversions of the Mississippi River, discharge from streams along the north and west shores, and tidal circulation. Sediments deposited in Lake Pontchartrain are subjected to resuspension and mixing by natural and human activities. Bioturbation and water turbulence throughout the lake are the major mixing agents, and mechanical shell dredging has reworked much of the lake bottom over the last century. Sediment characterization through direct sampling and geophysical surveys indicates that these processes continually rework the top meter of sediment. The lake receives discharge from roadways and industrial and agricultural sources. Contaminants from these sources accumulate in the lake sediments and are an important contributor to the degradation of the estuary. Decline in populations of various benthic organisms, such as shrimp and clams, has been documented in the lake. To characterize the health of this important estuary, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) conducted a comprehensive evaluation of the geology, geomorphology, coastal processes, and environmental condition of the Pontchartrain Basin from 1994 to 1997. This report presents an assessment of sediment distribution and quality using a multidisciplinary approach to characterize the influence of various physical and chemical parameters: nearsurface stratigraphy, major trace metal concentrations (Cu, Pb, Zn, and Ni), and short-lived radionuclides ( 210 Pb, 7 Be, and 137 Cs). The results are compared with water-circulation patterns to determine high-resolution sedimentation patterns in the lake. The data show a significant increase in trace metals in the top 1 m of lake sediments. Above this horizon, pollen analysis indicates a correlation with land clearing in the area, a proxy for increasing human development of the surrounding landscape and an increase in surface run-off. The data also show that the top meter of sediment undergoes frequent resuspension during high-energy circulation events and via circulation gyres in the lake. This regular turnover does not allow stratification of recently deposited sediments, restricting the sequestration of contaminated material that enters the lake.

Louisiana↗

Landscape models of brook trout abundance and distribution in lotic habitat with field validation

Brook trout Salvelinus fontinalis are native fish in decline owing to environmental changes. Predictions of their potential distribution and a better understanding of their relationship to habitat conditions would enhance the management and conservation of this valuable species. We used over 7,800 brook trout observations throughout New York State and georeferenced, multiscale landscape condition data to develop four regionally specific artificial neural network models to predict brook trout abundance in rivers and streams. Land cover data provided a general signature of human activity, but other habitat variables were resistant to anthropogenic changes (i.e., changing on a geological time scale). The resulting models predict the potential for any stream to support brook trout. The models were validated by holding 20% of the data out as a test set and by comparison with additional field collections from a variety of habitat types. The models performed well, explaining more than 90% of data variability. Errors were often associated with small spatial displacements of predicted values. When compared with the additional field collections (39 sites), 92% of the predictions were off by only a single class from the field-observed abundances. Among “least-disturbed” field collection sites, all predictions were correct or off by a single abundance class, except for one where brown trout Salmo trutta were present. Other degrading factors were evident at most sites where brook trout were absent or less abundant than predicted. The most important habitat variables included landscape slope, stream and drainage network sizes, water temperature, and extent of forest cover. Predicted brook trout abundances were applied to all New York streams, providing a synoptic map of the distribution of brook trout habitat potential. These fish models set benchmarks of best potential for streams to support brook trout under broad-scale human influences and can assist with planning and identification of protection or rehabilitation sites.

New York↗

Land use and nutrient concentrations and yields in selected streams in the Albemarle-Pamlico drainage basin, North Carolina and Virginia

Because nutrients can cause water-quaiity degradation, a major focus of NAWQA is to investigate effects of nutrients on surface- and ground-water quality. This report summarizes surface-water quality study design and land uses in the NAWQA Albemarle-Pamlico Drainage Basin study unit, one of 60 study units nationwide, and shows how nutrient concentrations are related to land uses at selected basins in the study unit. The study area encompasses about 28,000 square miles (mi2) in central and eastern North Carolina and southern Virginia. The major river basins in the Albemarle-Pamlico Drainage Basin are the Chowan, Roanoke, Tar, and Neuse. The barrier islands, estuaries, and the AlbemarIe, Pamlico, and associated sounds are not included in the study-unit area. The Albemarle-Pamlico Drainage Basin covers four physiographic provinces:Valley and Ridge, Blue Ridge, Piedmont, and Coastal Plain. About 50 percent of the land in the study areais forested, 30 percent is cropland, 15 percent is wetland, and 5 percent is developed. The population--of the study unit is about 3 million people.

North Carolina, Virginia↗

Preliminary assessment of microbial communities and biodegradation of chlorinated volatile organic compounds in wetlands at Cluster 13, Lauderick Creek area, Aberdeen Proving Ground, Maryland

A preliminary assessment of the microbial communities and biodegradation processes for chlorinated volatile organic compounds was con-ducted by the U.S. Geological Survey in wetlands at the Cluster 13, Lauderick Creek area at Aberdeen Proving Ground, Maryland. The U.S. Geological Survey collected wetland sediment samples from 11 sites in the Lauderick Creek area for microbial analyses, and used existing data to evaluate biodegradation processes and rates. The bacterial and methanogen communities in the Lauderick Creek wetland sediments were similar to those observed in a previous U.S. Geological Survey study at the West Branch Canal Creek wet-land area, Aberdeen Proving Ground. Evaluation of the degradation rate of 1,1,2,2-tetrachloroethane and the daughter compounds produced also showed similar results for the two wetlands. How-ever, a vertical profile of contaminant concentra-tions in the wetlands was available at only one site in the Lauderick Creek area, and flow velocities in the wetland sediment are unknown. To better evaluate natural attenuation processes and rates in the wetland sediments at Lauderick Creek, chemi-cal and hydrologic measurements are needed along ground-water flowpaths in the wetland at additional sites and during different seasons. Nat-ural attenuation in the wetlands, enhanced biore-mediation, and constructed wetlands could be feasible remediation methods for the chlorinated volatile organic compounds discharging in the Lauderick Creek area. The similarities in the microbial communities and biodegradation pro-cesses at the Lauderick Creek and West Branch Canal Creek areas indicate that enhanced bioreme-diation techniques currently being developed for the West Branch Canal Creek wetland area would be transferable to this area.

Maryland↗

Historical and projected coastal Louisiana land changes: 1978-2050

An important component of the Louisiana Coastal Area (LCA) Comprehensive Coastwide Ecosystem Restoration Study is the projection of a “future condition” for the Louisiana coast if no further restoration measures were adopted. Such a projection gives an idea of what the future might hold without implementation of the LCA plan and provides a reference against which various ecosystem restoration proposals can be assessed as part of the planning process. One of the most fundamental measures of ecosystem degradation in coastal Louisiana has been the conversion of land (mostly emergent vegetated habitat) to open water. Thus, the projection of the future condition of the ecosystem must be based upon the determination of future patterns of land and water. To conduct these projections, a multidisciplinary LCA Land Change Study Group was formed that included individuals from agencies and academia with expertise in remote sensing, geographic information systems (GIS), ecosystem processes, and coastal land loss. Methods were based upon those used in prior studies for Coast 2050 (Louisiana Coastal Wetlands Conservation and Restoration Task Force [LCWCRTF] and the Wetlands Conservation and Restoration Authority 1998, 1999) and modified as described here to incorporate an improved understanding of coastal land loss and land gain processes with more advanced technical capabilities. The basic approach is to use historical data to assess recent trends in land loss and land gain and to project those changes into the future, taking into account spatial variations in the patterns and rates of land loss and land gain. This approach is accomplished by developing a base map, assessing and delineating areas of similar land change (polygons), and projecting changes into the future. This report describes the methodology and compares the current land change projection to previous projections.

Open-File Report↗

Lesser prairie-chicken space use among landscapes in relation to anthropogenic structures

The Southern Great Plains has been altered by conversion of native grassland to row‐crop agriculture, which is considered the primary cause of declining lesser prairie‐chicken ( Tympanuchus pallidicinctus ) populations. However, recent analyses indicate that direct loss of grassland has slowed while lesser prairie‐chicken populations continue to decline, suggesting that remaining grasslands potentially suffer from degradation by various land uses (e.g., increased anthropogenic disturbance). Understanding the spatial ecology of lesser prairie‐chickens relative to anthropogenic structures is important for conservation planning, habitat management, and infrastructure mitigation. We investigated effects of proximity to anthropogenic structures on home range and nest placement (second‐order selection) and within home range space use (third‐order selection) of radio‐marked lesser prairie‐chickens ( n = 285) at 2 scales of selection using resource utilization functions and resource selection functions. We collected data from birds marked in the Mixed‐Grass Prairie and Short‐Grass Prairie ecoregions of Kansas, USA, from 15 March 2013 to 14 March 2016. Home range placement did not vary by region or season, and lesser prairie‐chickens placed home ranges farther from powerlines and roads than would be expected at random. As distance increased from 0 to 3 km away from roads and powerlines, the relative probability of home range placement increased 1.66 and 1.54 times, respectively. Distance to powerline was the single most consistent variable negatively affecting nest placement. As the distance from powerline increased from 0 to 3 km, the relative probability of nest placement increased 2.19 times. Distance to oil well did not influence placement of home ranges or nests. When pooled across regions, lesser prairie‐chickens exhibited behavioral avoidance of powerlines, roads, and oil wells within their home range. Lesser prairie‐chickens, on average, used space at greater intensities within their home range farther from wells, powerlines, and roads than available. Across breeding season phases, we found no evidence of increased behavioral avoidance of anthropogenic structures during the nesting or brooding phases compared to the lekking or post‐breeding phases. Within home range space use during the brooding phase was not related to powerlines, wells, or roads. Our results indicate that avoidance of anthropogenic structures may result in functional habitat loss and continued fragmentation of remaining grassland habitat. Reduction or elimination of anthropogenic development in quality lesser prairie‐chicken habitat and concentrating new development in already altered areas that are avoided by lesser prairie‐chickens and no longer considered available habitat may reduce continued habitat degradation throughout the species’ range and aid in population persistence.

Journal of Wildlife Management↗

Landscape controls on the timing of spring, autumn, and growing season length in mid-Atlantic forests

The timing of spring leaf development, trajectories of summer leaf area, and the timing of autumn senescence have profound impacts to the water, carbon, and energy balance of ecosystems, and are likely influenced by global climate change. Limited field-based and remote-sensing observations have suggested complex spatial patterns related to geographic features that influence climate. However, much of this variability occurs at spatial scales that inhibit a detailed understanding of even the dominant drivers. Recognizing these limitations, we used nonlinear inverse modeling of medium-resolution remote sensing data, organized by day of year, to explore the influence of climate-related landscape factors on the timing of spring and autumn leaf-area trajectories in mid-Atlantic, USA forests. We also examined the extent to which declining summer greenness (greendown) degrades the precision and accuracy of observations of autumn offset of greenness. Of the dominant drivers of landscape phenology, elevation was the strongest, explaining up to 70% of the spatial variation in the onset of greenness. Urban land cover was second in importance, influencing spring onset and autumn offset to a distance of 32 km from large cities. Distance to tidal water also influenced phenological timing, but only within ~5 km of shorelines. Additionally, we observed that (i) growing season length unexpectedly increases with increasing elevation at elevations below 275 m; (ii) along gradients in urban land cover, timing of autumn offset has a stronger effect on growing season length than does timing of spring onset; and (iii) summer greendown introduces bias and uncertainty into observations of the autumn offset of greenness. These results demonstrate the power of medium grain analyses of landscape-scale phenology for understanding environmental controls on growing season length, and predicting how these might be affected by climate change.

Global Change Biology↗

The Restoration Rapid Assessment Tool: An Access/Visual Basic application

Managers of parks and natural areas are increasingly faced with difficult decisions concerning restoration of disturbed lands. Financial and workforce resources often limit these restoration efforts, and rarely can a manager afford to address all concerns within the region of interest. With limited resources, managers and scientists have to decide which areas will be targeted for restoration and the restoration treatments to use in these areas. A broad range of approaches are used to make such decisions, from well-researched expert opinions (Cipollini et al. 2005) to gut feeling, with variable degrees of input from site visits, data collection, and data analysis used to support the decision. A standardized approach including an analytical assessment of site characteristics based on the best information available, with a written or electronic record of all the steps taken along the way, would make comparisons among a group of sites easier and lend credibility through use of common, documented criteria at all sites. In response to these concerns, we have developed the Restoration Rapid Assessment Tool (RRAT). RRAT is based on field observations of key indicators of site degradation, stressors influencing the site, value of the site with respect to larger management objectives, likelihood of achieving the management goals, and logistical constraints to restoration. The purpose of RRAT is not to make restoration decisions or prescribe methods, but rather to ensure that a basic set of pertinent issues are considered for each site and to facilitate comparisons among sites. Several concepts have been central to the development of RRAT. First, the management goal (also known as desired future condition) of any site under evaluation should be defined before the field evaluation begins. Second, the evaluation should be based upon readily observable indicators so as to avoid cumbersome field methods. Third, the ease with which site stressors can be ameliorated must be factored into the evaluation. Fourth, intrinsic site value must be assessed independently of current condition. Finally, logistical considerations must also be addressed. Our initial focus has been on riparian areas because they are among the most heavily impacted habitat types, and RRAT indicators reflect this focus.

Report↗

Processing techniques for global land 1-km AVHRR data

The U.S. Geological Survey's (USGS) Earth Resources Observation Systems (EROS) Data Center (EDC) in cooperation with several international science organizations has developed techniques for processing daily Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) 1-km data of the entire global land surface. These techniques include orbital stitching, geometric rectification, radiometric calibration, and atmospheric correction. An orbital stitching algorithm was developed to combine consecutive observations acquired along an orbit by ground receiving stations into contiguous half-orbital segments. The geometric rectification process uses an AVHRR satellite model that contains modules for forward mapping, forward terrain correction, and inverse mapping with terrain correction. The correction is accomplished by using the hydrologic features coastlines and lakes from the Digital Chart of the World. These features are rasterized into the satellite projection and are matched to the AVHRR imagery using binary edge correlation techniques. The resulting coefficients are related to six attitude correction parameters: roll, roll rate, pitch, pitch rate, yaw, and altitude. The image can then be precision corrected to a variety of map projections and user-selected image frames. Because the AVHRR lacks onboard calibration for the optical wavelengths, a series of time-variant calibration coefficients derived from vicarious calibration methods and are used to model the degradation profile of the instruments. Reducing atmospheric effects on AVHRR data is important. A method has been develop that will remove the effects of molecular scattering and absorption from clear sky observations, using climatological measurements of ozone. Other methods to remove the effects of water vapor and aerosols are being investigated.

Pecora 12 Symposium↗