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Baseline studies of the feasibility and reliability of using animal behavior as a component in the prediction of earthquakes

This project was established to determine if it were possible to advance the state of the art in earthquake prediction by learning more about claims that unusual animal behavior was an earthquake precursor. We used intensive post-earthquake interview surveys to gather objective reports both of instances of unusual animal behavior as an earthquake precursor and of instances in which animals behaved normally prior to a moderate or large earthquake. We prepared briefing volumes describing the cultural significance and interpretation of seismicity for cultures other than our own with which we were likely to have contact. This information helped us assess the impact of cultural expectations on our data set. These briefing volumes are one of the work products of our project and are included in this final report. Since our goal was to increase the ability to predict earthquakes, we avoided study of earthquakes with known foreshocks since in those cases the unusual animal behavior might have resulted simply from the foreshocks. Our data indicates that unusual animal behavior occurs a few hours to a few days before some, but not most, earthquakes that do not have known foreshocks. Our studies of earthquake folklore support the same conclusion (pp 121-144 of this report). Even when unusual animal behavior is a precursor to a particular earthquake, most individual animals behave normally. This creates a signal to noise ratio that will reduce the potential for direct use of unusual -animal behavior in earthquake prediction, but the analysis of some animals reactions might help to identify physical precursors to at least some earthquakes. Each phase of this research program has produced one or more completed work products. These products, which follow, compose our final report.

Open-File Report↗

Eco-informatics and natural resource management

This project highlight reports on the 2004 workshop [1], as well as follow-up activities in 2005 and 2006, regarding how informatics tools can help manage natural resources and decide policy. The workshop was sponsored jointly by sponsored by the NSF, NBII, NASA, and EPA, and attended by practitioners from government and non-government agencies, and university researchers from the computer, social, and ecological sciences. The workshop presented the significant information technology (IT) problems that resource managers face when integrating ecological or environmental information to make decisions. These IT problems fall into five categories: data presentation, data gaps, tools, indicators, and policy making and implementation. To alleviate such problems, we recommend informatics research in four IT areas, as defined in this abstract and our final report: modeling and simulation, data quality, information integration and ontologies, and social and human aspects. Additionally, we recommend that funding agencies provide infrastructure and some changes in funding habits to assure cycles of innovation in the domain were addressed. Follow-on activities to the workshop subsequent to dg.o 2005 included: an invited talk presenting workshop results at DILS 2005, publication of the workshop final report by the NBII [1], and a poster at the NBII All Hands Meeting (Oct. 2005). We also expect a special issue of the JIIS to appear in 2006 that addresses some of these questions. As we go to press, no solicitation by funding agencies has as yet been published, but various NASA and NBII, and NSF cyber-infrastructure and DG research efforts now underway address the above issues.

Conference Paper↗

Mapping vegetation communities in Ozark National Scenic Riverways: final technical report to the National Park Service

Vegetation communities were mapped at two levels in Ozark National Scenic Riverways (ONSR) usign a hybrid combination of statistical methods and photointerpretation. The primary map includes 49 cover classes, including 24 cleasses that relate to vegetation associations currenly described by the United States National Vegetation Classification Standard (USNVC: The Nature Conservancy, 1994a). The remaining types include cultural features, ruderal communities on abandoned agricultural lands, and non-vegetated classes. Overall map classification accuarcy is 63 percent. The secondary mapping level aggregates communities with similar appearance and ecologically related associations into Community Types. The resultant 33-class Community Type map has an overall classification accuracy of 77 percent and identified groups of communities based on resource management goals within the park. Important additional products include 1) a general probability map for all vegetation associations, which can be used to assess final classification certainty, and 2) individual probability maps for each association, which can be used to identify areas that have a high likelihood of supporting a given type, beyond where that type was identified in the final map products. Other secondary map products include data layers derived from primary color-infrared imagery, secondary imagery data and digital elevation models. A field key and photo guide to associations and complete community descriptions were produced, along with a photo guide of fuel conditions. Wildland fuels data were used to generate a fuels map based upon Anderson's fuels models (1982).

Missouri↗

Mammal inventories for eight National Parks in the Southern Colorado Plateau Network

Historically, the Colorado Plateau has been the subject of many geological and biological explorations. J. W. Powell explored and mapped the canyon country of the Colorado River in 1869 (Powell 1961). C. H. Merriam, V. Bailey, M. Cary, and other employees of the Bureau of Biological Survey conducted biological explorations of the area in the late 1800s. In recent times, researchers such as S. D. Durrant (1952), Durrant and Robinson (1962), D. M. Armstrong (1972), J. S. Findley et al. (1975), D. F. Hoff meister (1986), and J. Fitzgerald et al. (1994) have made considerable contributions to our understanding of the fauna of the Colorado Plateau. Despite earlier efforts, biological details on many regions of the plateau have remained insufficiently explored. In an effort to gather valuable biological information, the National Park Service (NPS) initiated a nationwide program to inventory vascular plants and vertebrates on NPS lands (Stuart 2000). The U.S. Geological Survey, Fort Collins Science Center, Arid Lands Field Station became a cooperator on this effort in 2001, when we began mammalian inventories on five parks within the NPS Southern Colorado Plateau Network (SCPN): Aztec Ruins National Monument (AZRU), El Morro National Monument (ELMO), Petroglyph National Monument (PETR), Salinas Pueblo Missions National Monument (SAPU), and Yucca House National Monument (YUHO). Existing baseline data on mammalian occurrences in these parks varied from very sparse to moderate, with little information available for most parks. In most cases, information was insufficient to assess the status of species of local concern. A final report on inventory efforts on these five parks was submitted in February 2004 (Bogan et al. 2004). In 2003, biologists from the Arid Lands Field Station began work on three additional parks in the SCPN: Bandelier National Monument (BAND), Chaco Culture National Historical Park (CHCU), and El Malpaís National Monument (ELMA). The primary emphasis at these three parks was on nonvolant mammals, as personnel from the Field Station had worked earlier on bats at all three parks (Bogan et al. 1998, Valdez et al. 2002a, 2002b). A final report on inventories at these three parks was submitted in April 2005. This publication details fieldwork conducted in all eight parks from 2001–2004. The information that appears here was originally contained in two separate reports that have been combined in order to make it easier for readers to find information on SCPN mammal inventories. To remain faithful to the original reports, and because of slightly differing objectives, personnel, and emphases at the two sets of parks, we have generally presented the methods, results, and recommendations separately for the 5-park and 3-park inventories.

Natural Resource Technical Report↗

Geologic studies in Alaska by the U.S. Geological Survey, 1999

The collection of nine papers that follow continue the series of U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) investigative reports in Alaska under the broad umbrella of the geologic sciences. The series presents new and sometimes preliminary findings that are of interest to earth scientists in academia, government, and industry; to land and resource managers; and to the general public. Reports presented in Geologic Studies in Alaska cover a broad spectrum of topics from various parts of the State (fig. 1), serving to emphasize the diversity of USGS efforts to meet the Nation's needs for earth-science information in Alaska. The papers in this volume are organized under the topics: Hazards, Geologic Framework, Environment and Climate, and Resources. This organization is intended to reflect the scope and objectives of USGS geologic programs currently active in Alaska. The two Hazards studies discuss volcano-related topics in the seismically active southcentral Alaska region. The first paper revisits the eruptive events of Redoubt Volcano that occurred more than a decade ago and the subsequent development of the Alaska Volcano Observatory (AVO). This treatise documents the historic impact of this eruption and briefly summarizes the state of our knowledge of the other Cook Inlet, Alaska Peninsula, and Aleutian Island volcanoes. Finally, it discusses the recent role that AVO has had in seismic station installation and hazard assessment at volcanically active sites throughout the world. The second paper discusses the eruptive history of Snowy Mountain in the upper Alaska Peninsula. Because subsets of its 25-30 lava flows erupted as packages in short episodes, calculation of the volcano's lifetime average volumetric eruption rate is problematic. A portion of the cone was hydrothermally weakened and collapsed in the late Holocene producing a 22-km2 debris avalanche. Geologic Framework studies provide background information that is the scientific basis for present and future earth science investigations. The first paper compares and contrasts the Insular-Intermontane suture zone (IISZ) of southeast Alaska with the Adria-Europe suture zone (AESZ) of Switzerland and Hungary. The study develops the hypothesis that the zones have distinct differences as well as similarities and neither is a simple lithotectonic terrane boundary. The second paper discusses the relation among volcanic, glacial, and tectonic activity in the Cold Bay and False Pass 1 :250,000-scale quadrangles on the Alaska Peninsula. During Pleistocene time, continental-shelf glaciations and two massive volcanic centers were the dominant controls over landscape development. The third paper gives detailed geologic information for Paleozoic rocks within the Taylor Mountains D-1 quadrangle portion of the Holitna Lowland of southwestern Alaska. Because of the excellent preservation of megafossils, these Silurian and Ordovician strata lend themselves to detailed statigraphic investigations. Further, low thermal alteration indices of this area have made them a potential target of petroleum exploration. The final report in this section discusses the development of a new spectral enhancement approach for interpreting Multispectral Scanner (MSS) and Thematic Mapper (TM) satellite images. This technique enhances the use of remote sensing data in identifying geologic units in areas that have been poorly investigated. This study used this technique to better define the distribution of a JMtu (mafic, ultramafic, and sedimentary) unit and a PzZrqs (pelitic and quartzitic schist) unit. Environment and climate studies are the emphasis of two papers. One presents the first radiocarbon-dated postglacial vegetation history of the Kenai Mountains of southcentral Alaska. This reconstruction is the result of the analysis of pollen assemblages and peat from sediments collected in Tern Lake and presents a minimum age for deglaciation of these interior valleys at 9,31 0±200 yr B .P. Current vegetation, however, developed within the past ca. 2,500 years. A second study discusses the cycling of arsenic and cadmium in sub-arctic boreal forest ecosystems typical of interior Alaska and defines the importance of various natural (geogenic) sources. The transport and uptake into vegetation of these elements from soils developed from loess as well as soils developed from the major rock units is presented. The bioaccumulation of cadmium in willow (Salix sp.) and its potential consequence to the health of browsing animals is discussed. Papers related to resource issues comprise the topic of the final report. This paper presents a brief statistical summary of the geochemistry of rock samples collected in the east-central portion of the Eagle 1 :250,000-scale quadrangle. This study helps define the rock unit source of both resource- and environmental-based chemical elements of interest in the Fortymile mining district. Two bibliographies at the end of the volume list reports covering Alaska earth science topics in USGS publications during 1999 and reports about Alaska by USGS authors in non-USGS publications during the same period.

Alaska↗

The Bangui magnetic anomaly, Central African Empire: Final trip report

For the past 5 years the U. S. Geological Survey (USGS) and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) have been involved in a joint project concerning the analysis of satellite magnetometer data for geological studies. The principal objectives of this project have been the detection, identification, and interpretation of magnetic anomalies of geological origin.

Open-File Report↗

Formal and informal trail monitoring protocols and baseline conditions: Great Falls Park and Potomac Gorge. Final research report

This report presents the results of research on the conditions of formal and informal (visitorcreated) trails conducted within the Great Falls Park (GFP) portion of George Washington Memorial Parkway (GWMP), Virginia, and the adjacent Maryland portions of the C&O Canal National Historical Park (CHOH). This research was prompted primarily by concerns about the impact of extensive informal trail networks within both parks on native vegetation and rare plant communities, rare flora and fauna, and historic and archaeological resources. Resource conditions on formal park trails were also assessed to provide information supporting the development of park planning and management decision-making.

Report↗

Evaluation of ground failure susceptibility, opportunity, and potential in the urban area of Anchorage, Alaska : final technical report

This study was conducted as a part of the U.s. Geological Survey's Earthquake Hazards Reduction Program. The goal of this program is a reduction of earthquake hazards through the incorporation of research findings on these hazards into land-use planning decisions. An important objective of the Earthquake Hazards Reduction Program is assessment of the potential for earthquake-induced ground failure in areas of high seismicity.

Alaska↗