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USGS2023

Climate-driven tradeoffs between landscape connectivity and the maintenance of the coastal carbon sink

Ecosystem connectivity tends to increase the resilience and function of ecosystems responding to stressors. Coastal ecosystems sequester disproportionately large amounts of carbon, but rapid exchange of water, nutrients, and sediment makes them vulnerable to sea level rise and coastal erosion. Individual components of the coastal landscape (i.e., marsh, forest, bay) have contrasting responses to sea level rise, making it difficult to forecast the response of the integrated coastal carbon sink. Here we couple a spatially-explicit geomorphic model with a point-based carbon accumulation model, and show that landscape connectivity, in-situ carbon accumulation rates, and the size of the landscape-scale coastal carbon stock all peak at intermediate sea level rise rates despite divergent responses of individual components. Progressive loss of forest biomass under increasing sea level rise leads to a shift from a system dominated by forest biomass carbon towards one dominated by marsh soil carbon that is maintained by substantial recycling of organic carbon between marshes and bays. These results suggest that climate change strengthens connectivity between adjacent coastal ecosystems, but with tradeoffs that include a shift towards more labile carbon, smaller marsh and forest extents, and the accumulation of carbon in portions of the landscape more vulnerable to sea level rise and erosion.

Nature Communications↗

USGS2023

Watershed carbon yield derived from gauge observations and river network connectivity in the United States

River networks play a critical role in the global carbon cycle. Although global/continental scale riverine carbon cycle studies demonstrate the significance of rivers and streams for linking land and coastal regions, the lack of spatially distributed riverine carbon load data represents a gap for quantifying riverine carbon net gain or net loss in different regions, understanding mechanisms and factors that influence the riverine carbon cycle, and testing simulations of aquatic carbon cycle models at fine scales. Here, we (1) derive the riverine load of particulate organic carbon (POC) and dissolved organic carbon (DOC) for over 1,000 hydrologic stations across the Conterminous United States (CONUS) and (2) use the river network connectivity information for over 80,000 catchment units within the National Hydrography Dataset Plus (NHDPlus) to estimate riverine POC and DOC net gain or net loss for watersheds controlled between upstream-downstream hydrologic stations. The new riverine carbon load and watershed net gain/loss represent a unique contribution to support future studies for better understanding and quantification of riverine carbon cycles.

Scientific Data↗

USGS2024

Annual grass invasions and wildfire deplete ecosystem carbon storage by >50% to resistant base levels

Ecological disturbance can affect carbon storage and stability and is a key consideration for managing lands to preserve or increase ecosystem carbon to ameliorate the global greenhouse gas problem. Dryland soils are massive carbon reservoirs that are increasingly impacted by species invasions and altered fire regimes, including the exotic-grass-fire cycle in the extensive sagebrush steppe of North America. Direct measurement of total carbon in 1174 samples from landscapes of this region that differed in invasion and wildfire history revealed that their impacts depleted soil carbon by 42–49%, primarily in deep horizons, which could amount to 17.1–20.0 Tg carbon lost across the ~400,000 ha affected annually. Disturbance effects on soil carbon stocks were not synergistic, suggesting that soil carbon was lowered to a floor—i.e. a resistant base-level—beneath which further loss was unlikely. Restoration and maintenance of resilient dryland shrublands/rangelands could stabilize soil carbon at magnitudes relevant to the global carbon cycle.

Nature Communications, Earth & Environment↗

USGS2013

Carbon stocks of trees killed by bark beetles and wildfire in the western United States

Forests are major components of the carbon cycle, and disturbances are important influences of forest carbon. Our objective was to contribute to the understanding of forest carbon cycling by quantifying the amount of carbon in trees killed by two disturbance types, fires and bark beetles, in the western United States in recent decades. We combined existing spatial data sets of forest biomass, burn severity, and beetle-caused tree mortality to estimate the amount of aboveground and belowground carbon in killed trees across the region. We found that during 1984-2010, fires killed trees that contained 5-11 Tg C year -1 and during 1997-2010, beetles killed trees that contained 2-24 Tg C year -1 , with more trees killed since 2000 than in earlier periods. Over their periods of record, amounts of carbon in trees killed by fires and by beetle outbreaks were similar, and together these disturbances killed trees representing 9% of the total tree carbon in western forests, a similar amount to harvesting. Fires killed more trees in lower-elevation forest types such as Douglas-fir than higher-elevation forest types, whereas bark beetle outbreaks also killed trees in higher-elevation forest types such as lodgepole pine and Engelmann spruce. Over 15% of the carbon in lodgepole pine and spruce/fir forest types was in trees killed by beetle outbreaks; other forest types had 5-10% of the carbon in killed trees. Our results document the importance of these natural disturbances in the carbon budget of the western United States.

Environmental Research Letters↗

USGS2012

Effects of road decommissioning on carbon stocks, losses, and emissions in north coastal California

During the last 3 decades, many road removal projects have been implemented on public and private lands in the United States to reduce erosion and other impacts from abandoned or unmaintained forest roads. Although effective in decreasing sediment production from roads, such activities have a carbon (C) cost as well as representing a carbon savings for an ecosystem. We assessed the carbon budget implications of 30 years of road decommissioning in Redwood National Park in north coastal California. Road restoration techniques, which evolved during the program, were associated with various carbon costs and savings. Treatment of 425 km of logging roads from 1979 to 2009 saved 72,000 megagrams (Mg) C through on-site soil erosion prevention, revegetation, and soil development on formerly compacted roads. Carbon sequestration will increase in time as forests and soils develop more fully on the restored sites. The carbon cost for this road decommissioning work, based on heavy equipment and vehicle fuel emissions, short-term soil loss, and clearing of vegetation, was 23,000 Mg C, resulting in a net carbon savings of 49,000 Mg C to date. Nevertheless, the degree to which soil loss is a carbon sink or source in steep mountainous watersheds needs to be further examined. The ratio of carbon costs to savings will differ by ecosystem and road removal methodology, but the procedure outlined here to assess carbon budgets on restoration sites should be transferable to other systems.

California↗

USGS2020

Integrating the evidence for a terrestrial carbon sink caused by increasing atmospheric CO2

Atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration ([CO 2 ]) is increasing, which increases leaf‐scale photosynthesis and intrinsic water‐use efficiency. These direct responses have the potential to increase plant growth, vegetation biomass, and soil organic matter; transferring carbon from the atmosphere into terrestrial ecosystems (a carbon sink). A substantial global terrestrial carbon sink would slow the rate of [CO 2 ] increase and thus climate change. However, ecosystem CO 2 responses are complex or confounded by concurrent changes in multiple agents of global change and evidence for a [CO 2 ]‐driven terrestrial carbon sink can appear contradictory. Here we synthesize theory and broad, multidisciplinary evidence for the effects of increasing [CO 2 ] (iCO 2 ) on the global terrestrial carbon sink. Evidence suggests a substantial increase in global photosynthesis since pre‐industrial times. Established theory, supported by experiments, indicates that iCO 2 is likely responsible for about half of the increase. Global carbon budgeting, atmospheric data, and forest inventories indicate a historical carbon sink, and these apparent iCO 2 responses are high in comparison to experiments and predictions from theory. Plant mortality and soil carbon iCO 2 responses are highly uncertain. In conclusion, a range of evidence supports a positive terrestrial carbon sink in response to iCO 2 , albeit with uncertain magnitude and strong suggestion of a role for additional agents of global change.

New Phytologist↗

USGS2014

Influence of stocking, site quality, stand age, low-severity canopy disturbance, and forest composition on sub-boreal aspen mixedwood carbon stocks

Low-severity canopy disturbance presumably influences forest carbon dynamics during the course of stand development, yet the topic has received relatively little attention. This is surprising because of the frequent occurrence of such events and the potential for both the severity and frequency of disturbances to increase as a result of climate change. We investigated the impacts of low-severity canopy disturbance and average insect defoliation on forest carbon stocks and rates of carbon sequestration in mature aspen mixedwood forests of varying stand age (ranging from 61 to 85 years), overstory composition, stocking level, and site quality. Stocking level and site quality positively affected the average annual aboveground tree carbon increment (C AAI ), while stocking level, site quality, and stand age positively affected tree carbon stocks (C TREE ) and total ecosystem carbon stocks (C TOTAL ). Cumulative canopy disturbance (DIST) was reconstructed using dendroecological methods over a 29-year period. DIST was negatively and significantly related to soil carbon (C SOIL ), and it was negatively, albeit marginally, related to C TOTAL . Minima in the annual aboveground carbon increment of trees (C AI ) occurred at sites during defoliation of aspen ( Populus tremuloides Michx.) by forest tent caterpillar ( Malacosoma disstria Hubner), and minima were more extreme at sites dominated by trembling aspen than sites mixed with conifers. At sites defoliated by forest tent caterpillar in the early 2000s, increased sequestration by the softwood component ( Abies balsamea (L.) Mill. and Picea glauca (Moench) Voss) compensated for overall decreases in C AI by 17% on average. These results underscore the importance of accounting for low-severity canopy disturbance events when developing regional forest carbon models and argue for the restoration and maintenance of historically important conifer species within aspen mixedwoods to enhance stand-level resilience to disturbance agents and maintain site-level carbon stocks.

Minnesota↗

USGS2012

Cambrian-lower Middle Ordovician passive carbonate margin, southern Appalachians

The southern Appalachian part of the Cambrian–Ordovician passive margin succession of the great American carbonate bank extends from the Lower Cambrian to the lower Middle Ordovician, is as much as 3.5 km (2.2 mi) thick, and has long-term subsidence rates exceeding 5 cm (2 in.)/k.y. Subsiding depocenters separated by arches controlled sediment thickness. The succession consists of five supersequences, each of which contains several third-order sequences, and numerous meter-scale parasequences. Siliciclastic-prone supersequence 1 (Lower Cambrian Chilhowee Group fluvial rift clastics grading up into shelf siliciclastics) underlies the passive margin carbonates. Supersequence 2 consists of the Lower Cambrian Shady Dolomite–Rome-Waynesboro Formations. This is a shallowing-upward ramp succession of thinly bedded to nodular lime mudstones up into carbonate mud-mound facies, overlain by lowstand quartzose carbonates, and then a rimmed shelf succession capped by highly cyclic regressive carbonates and red beds (Rome-Waynesboro Formations). Foreslope facies include megabreccias, grainstone, and thin-bedded carbonate turbidites and deep-water rhythmites. Supersequence 3 rests on a major unconformity and consists of a Middle Cambrian differentiated rimmed shelf carbonate with highly cyclic facies (Elbrook Formation) extending in from the rim and passing via an oolitic ramp into a large structurally controlled intrashelf basin (Conasauga Shale). Filling of the intrashelf basin caused widespread deposition of thin quartz sandstones at the base of supersequence 4, overlain by widespread cyclic carbonates (Upper Cambrian lower Knox Group Copper Ridge Dolomite in the south; Conococheague Formation in the north). Supersequence 5 (Lower Ordovician upper Knox in the south; Lower to Middle Ordovician Beekmantown Group in the north) has a basal quartz sandstone-prone unit, overlain by cyclic ramp carbonates, that grade downdip into thrombolite grainstone and then storm-deposited deep-ramp carbonates. Passive margin deposition was terminated by arc-continent collision when the shelf was uplifted over a peripheral bulge while global sea levels were falling, resulting in the major 0- to 10-m.y. Knox–Beekmantown unconformity. The supersequences and sequences appear to relate to regionally traceable eustatic sea level cycles on which were superimposed high-frequency Milankovitch sea level cycles that formed the parasequences under global greenhouse conditions.

southern Appalachian Mountains↗

USGS2009

Interannual variation of carbon fluxes from three contrasting evergreen forests: The role of forest dynamics and climate

Interannual variation of carbon fluxes can be attributed to a number of biotic and abiotic controls that operate at different spatial and temporal scales. Type and frequency of disturbance, forest dynamics, and climate regimes are important sources of variability. Assessing the variability of carbon fluxes from these specific sources can enhance the interpretation of past and current observations. Being able to separate the variability caused by forest dynamics from that induced by climate will also give us the ability to determine if the current observed carbon fluxes are within an expected range or whether the ecosystem is undergoing unexpected change. Sources of interannual variation in ecosystem carbon fluxes from three evergreen ecosystems, a tropical, a temperate coniferous, and a boreal forest, were explored using the simulation model STANDCARB. We identified key processes that introduced variation in annual fluxes, but their relative importance differed among the ecosystems studied. In the tropical site, intrinsic forest dynamics contributed ?? 30% of the total variation in annual carbon fluxes. In the temperate and boreal sites, where many forest processes occur over longer temporal scales than those at the tropical site, climate controlled more of the variation among annual fluxes. These results suggest that climate-related variability affects the rates of carbon exchange differently among sites. Simulations in which temperature, precipitation, and radiation varied from year to year (based on historical records of climate variation) had less net carbon stores than simulations in which these variables were held constant (based on historical records of monthly average climate), a result caused by the functional relationship between temperature and respiration. This suggests that, under a more variable temperature regime, large respiratory pulses may become more frequent and high enough to cause a reduction in ecosystem carbon stores. Our results also show that the variation of annual carbon fluxes poses an important challenge in our ability to determine whether an ecosystem is a source, a sink, or is neutral in regard to CO 2 at longer timescales. In simulations where climate change negatively affected ecosystem carbon stores, there was a 20% chance of committing Type II error, even with 20 years of sequential data. ?? 2009 by the Ecological Society of America.

Ecology↗

USGS2001

Mississippi Basin Carbon Project: Upland soil database for sites in Nishnabotna River basin, Iowa

The conversion of land from its native state to an agricultural use commonly results in a significant loss of soil carbon (Mann, 1985; Davidson and Ackerman, 1993). Globally, this loss is estimated to account for as much as 1/3 of the net CO 2 emissions for the period of 1850 to 1980 (Houghton and others, 1983). Roughly 20 to 40 percent of original soil carbon is estimated to be lost as CO 2 as a result of agricultural conversion, or "decomposition enhancement". Global models use this estimate along with land conversion data to provide agricultural contributions of CO 2 emissions for global carbon budgets (Houghton and others, 1983; Schimel, 1995). Soil erosion rates are significantly (10X) higher on croplands than on their undisturbed equivalents (Dabney and others, 1997). Most of the concern over erosion is related to diminished productivity of the uplands (Stallings, 1957; McGregor and others, 1969; Rhoton, 1990) or to increased hazards and navigability of the lowlands in the late 1800's to early 1900's. Yet because soil carbon is concentrated at the soil surface, with an exponential decline in concentration with depth (Harden et al, 1999), it is clear that changes in erosion rates seen on croplands must also impact soil carbon storage and terrestrial carbon budgets as well. As yet, erosional losses of carbon are not included in global carbon budgets explicitly as a factor in land conversion nor implicitly as a portion of the decomposition enhancement. However, recent work by Lal and others (1995) and by Stallard (1998) suggests that significant amounts of eroded soil may be stored in man-made reservoirs and depositional environments as a result of agricultural conversion. Moreover, Stallard points out that eroding soils have the potential for replacing part of the carbon trapped in man-made reservoirs. If true, then the global carbon budget may grossly underestimate or ignore a significant sink term resulting from the burial of eroded soil.

Iowa↗

USGS1999

Mississippi Basin Carbon Project; upland soil database for sites in Yazoo Basin, northern Mississippi

The conversion of land from its native state to an agricultural use commonly results in a significant loss of soil carbon (Mann, 1985; Davidson and Ackerman, 1993). Globally, this loss is estimated to account for as much as 1/3 of the net CO2 emissions for the period of 1850 to 1980 (Houghton et al, 1983). Roughly 20 to 40 percent of original soil carbon is estimated to be lost as CO2 as a result of agricultural conversion, or 'decomposition enhancement', and global models use this estimate along with land conversion data to provide agricultural contributions of CO2 emissions for global carbon budgets (Houghton and others, 1983; Schimel, 1995). As yet, erosional losses of carbon are not included in global carbon budgets explicitly as a factor in land conversion nor implicitly as a portion of the decomposition enhancement. However, recent work by Lal et al (1995) and by Stallard (1998) suggests that significant amounts of eroded soil may be stored in man-made reservoirs and depositional environments as a result of agricultural conversion. Moreover, Stallard points out that if eroding soils have the potential for replacing part of the carbon trapped in man-made reservoirs, then the global carbon budget may grossly underestimate or ignore a significant sink term resulting from the burial of eroded soil. Soil erosion rates are significantly (10X) higher on croplands than on their undisturbed equivalents (Dabney et al, 1997). Most of the concern over erosion is related to diminished productivity of the uplands (Stallings, 1957; McGregor et al, 1993; Rhoton and Tyler, 1990) or to increased hazards and navigability of the lowlands in the late 1800's to early 1900's. Yet because soil carbon is concentrated at the soil surface, with an exponential decline in concentration with depth, it is clear that changes in erosion rates seen on croplands must also impact soil carbon storage and terrestrial carbon budgets as well.

Open-File Report↗

USGS2005

Hydrogeology and ground-water availability in the carbonate aquifer system of Frederick County, Virginia

The carbonate aquifer system of the northern Shenandoah Valley provides an important water supply to local communities, including Frederick County, Va., which depends on ground water as a source of water supply. The county and surrounding area are undergoing increased urbanization, and increased demands on the carbonate aquifer system are expected. A study was conducted between October 2000 and March 2004 by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the County of Frederick, Va., to describe the hydrogeology and ground-water availability in the carbonate aquifer system underlying the county. The study area encompasses about 25 percent (105 square miles) of the county that is underlain by carbonate bedrock. The carbonate aquifer system of Frederick County is in the Shenandoah Valley region of the Valley and Ridge Physiographic Province. Approximately 10,000 feet of folded and fractured Middle Cambrian to Upper Ordovician sedimentary rocks are exposed and are overlain by Pleistocene (?) and Holocene surficial deposits. All geologic units in the study area are considered to be aquifers. The geologic units are generally unconfined, fractured-rock aquifers that are recharged by precipitation and discharge locally to streams and springs, and by evapotranspiration. Stream density in the carbonate study area is less than in the remainder of the county, which is underlain by siliciclastic rock units. Most streams flow normal to strike (from the northwest towards the southeast) across the study area. These streams are characterized by shallow incisement and are usually limited to a single stream channel. In the southern third of the study area, streams flow parallel to strike (from the northeast towards the southwest) towards the deeply intrenched Cedar Creek. Springs are commonly located at the start of flows for all streams in the carbonate study area, and spring discharges are often a large portion of the streamflow (especially during drought conditions). The general direction of ground-water flow is from the hills in the west of the study area into and across the carbonate valley. A ground-water divide may occur north of Round Hill in the vicinity of the Apple Pie Ridge fault where the North Mountain fault zone cuts out the resistant Silurian and Devonian sandstone units and results in surface drainage from the carbonate rocks toward the west and out of the carbonate valley. Estimates of effective ground-water recharge for 2001-02 range from 5.8 to 6.2 inches in the Cedar Creek Basin, with base flow accounting for between 60 and 64 percent of streamflow, and from 3.2 to 3.8 inches in the Opequon Creek Basin, with base flow accounting for between 86 and 92 percent of streamflow. Water budgets calculated for 2001, a year of below-normal precipitation (33.1 inches), and 2002, a year of above-normal precipitation (41.2 inches), include a streamflow of 9.0 inches in 2001 and 9.2 inches in 2002 in Cedar Creek. Evapotranspiration ranged from 25.9 to 30.7 inches, and ground-water storage decreased 1.8 inches in 2001 and increased 1.3 inches in 2002. Streamflow was 3.7 inches in 2001 and 2002 in Opequon Creek. Evapotranspiration ranged from 29.8 to 37.5 inches, and ground-water storage decreased 0.4 inch in 2001 and did not change in 2002.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

USGS2022

Sources and characteristics of dissolved organic carbon in the McKenzie River, Oregon, related to the formation of disinfection by-products in treated drinking water

Executive Summary This study characterized the concentration and quality of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) in the McKenzie River, a relatively undeveloped watershed in western Oregon, and its link to forming disinfection by-products (DBPs) in treated drinking water. The study aimed to identify the primary source(s) of DOC in source water for the Eugene Water & Electric Board’s (EWEB) conventional treatment plant on the McKenzie River near river mile 11, upstream of Hayden Bridge. The two classes of regulated compounds examined—trihalomethanes (THMs) and haloacetic acids (HAAs)—form when organic carbon in raw source water reacts with chlorine and (or) bromine during water treatment. The objectives of the study were to: characterize the amount and quality of DOC in the McKenzie River and select tributaries during storms; identify the most common types of carbon using UV-vis spectroscopy and other methods; evaluate optical properties for predicting DBP precursors in surface water; and identify land cover classes or vegetation types that may be important sources of organic carbon and DBP precursors in EWEB’s source water. Eleven storms were sampled synoptically in upstream-to-downstream fashion to provide a “snapshot” of water quality conditions at four sites on the McKenzie River from Frissell Bridge (6 miles downstream from Trail Bridge Reservoir) to the EWEB water treatment plant at Hayden Bridge and nine contributing tributaries. Storms included late summer and early autumn “first flush” events and late autumn, winter, and spring storms spanning a range in streamflows from 3,000 to 26,000 cubic feet per second as measured in the main stem McKenzie River at the EWEB water intake. Water samples were analyzed for DOC concentrations and optical properties (fluorescence and ultraviolet absorbance [UVA]) across a range of wavelengths to characterize the quantity and quality of dissolved organic matter (DOM) in the McKenzie River at the drinking water intake and upstream locations. Paired sets of source and finished water samples were collected at the EWEB treatment plant to identify DOC quality parameters in raw source water that might predict DBP concentrations in finished drinking water. DOC concentrations were relatively low in the McKenzie River (0.4–3 milligrams per liter [mg/L]; average 1.5 mg/L) but much higher in the tributaries. The highest DOC concentrations occurred during “first flush” storms in October 2012 and September 2013; the highest value (16 mg/L) was measured at the 52nd Street stormwater outfall. The average DOC concentration in the lower basin-tributaries was 3.8 mg/L; three middle basin tributaries—Quartz, Gate, and Haagen Creeks, which drain private forestland with less coniferous forest compared with other higher elevation tributaries— had slightly lower average DOC concentrations (2.8 mg/L). These middle-basin watersheds may be important sources of DOC and DBP precursors to the McKenzie River, even more so than the lower basin tributaries, depending on their flows (and loads). This is particularly true after the September 2020 Holiday Farm fire, which burned much of this area. DOC concentrations increased 68 percent in the McKenzie River between the uppermost reference site at Frissell Bridge and Vida; this includes drainage from Quartz Creek, Blue River Lake and Cougar Reservoir, which all contributed DOC to the main stem. In contrast, the lowermost tributaries draining most of the agricultural and urban land did not have a large effect on DOC in the McKenzie River despite their higher DOC concentrations because of their presumed relatively low streamflows and, consequently, DOC loads. Apart from the continuous flow monitors in the McKenzie River and some tributaries (Blue River and South Fork McKenzie River, and streamflow at Hayden Bridge and Vida, Camp Creek and some other locations), streamflow was not assessed during sample collection for this study. This lack of streamflow data precludes a detailed analysis of loads, which is discussed in the future studies section. All DBP concentrations in finished drinking water were less than EPA maximum contaminant levels (MCLs) of 0.080 mg/L for the four trihalomethanes (THM4) and 0.060 mg/L for five haloacetic acids (HAA5). During the 11 storm sampling events the maximum summed concentrations were about 0.040 mg/L for both THM4 and HAA5. Compliance monitoring samples, collected separately by EWEB, yielded some higher concentrations—0.046 mg/L THM4 and 0.047 HAA5—during the December 2012 storm. The corresponding benchmark quotient (BQ) values, which indicate how close a measured DBP concentration is to the MCL, were 0.58 and 0.78, respectively, for THM4 and HAA5. Compared with a similar 2007–08 McKenzie River study that did not target storm events, concentrations of THM4 and HAA5 in finished water were 68 percent and 33 percent higher, respectively, during the current study. Due to the high dilution rates in the McKenzie River main stem, many of the individual fluorescence excitation-emission measurements were low (<0.1 Raman units) and approached analytical detection limits. Parallel factor analysis (PARAFAC) resulted in a five-component model (C1–C5) that represents five unique organic fluorophores. Components C1, C2, and C3 represent DOM associated with soil-derived, humic-like, more degraded organic matter. In contrast, components C4 and C5 represent “fresher” DOM, derived from terrestrial and aquatic plants, including algae and cyanobacteria that are common in the McKenzie River and its tributaries and reservoirs. The fluorescence data and PARAFAC modeling suggest that most of the DOC in the McKenzie River originated from terrestrial sources (primarily components C1 and C2). The largest increases in DOC in the main stem occurred in the reach upstream of Vida, from inflows by Quartz Creek, Blue River, South Fork McKenzie River, and other tributaries. Concentrations of DBPs in EWEB’s finished drinking water were positively correlated with DOC concentrations in raw source water (THM4, p <0.05; HAA5, p <0.01) for paired samples collected 12−24 hours apart. DOC concentrations were significantly positively correlated ( p <0.001) with laboratory-based fluorescent dissolved organic matter (fDOM) measurements, suggesting fDOM as a useful parameter for monitoring and predicting DOC concentration in surface water and DBP concentrations in finished water. Of all the PARAFAC components in surface water, C5 had the highest correlations with DBPs in finished water (rho = 0.77–0.84, p <0.01), followed by components C1 and C2 (rho = 0.75 and 0.71, respectively, p <0.01). This C5 carbon is associated with recently produced DOM, possibly from decomposed terrestrial and aquatic vegetation. Model loadings of these three components were considerably higher in the sampled tributaries relative to the main stem McKenzie River, with most of the observed increases in the main stem apparent at Vida. This points to Quartz Creek or other tributaries in the reach between Frissell Bridge and the sampling site near Vida (South Fork McKenzie and Blue Rivers) as potentially key contributors of DOM source material that leads to the production of DBPs in treated drinking water. A limited load analysis showed that the reservoirs contributed 8–37 percent of the instantaneous DOC loads observed at Vida at the time of sampling, which suggests other sources such as Quartz Creek and other streams in the reach between Frissell Bridge and Vida are more important. Random forest analyses identified PARAFAC components C1 and C5 and fluorescence peaks A, C, M, T and N as the best predictors for HAA5 concentrations in finished drinking water, explaining 62.5 percent of the variation. The best predictors for THM4 were C1, C4 + C5, and peaks T, A, and N, which explained 33 percent of the variation. Several land cover and vegetation classes were correlated with DOC concentration and other optical measurements. The percentage of evergreen forest in each of the subwatersheds sampled was negatively correlated ( p <0.001) with DOC concentration and many optical indicators of DOM quantity: UVA 254 , fDOM, and all of the fluorescence peaks. In contrast, mixed (deciduous) forest was positively correlated ( p <0.001) with DOC, fDOM, UVA 254 , and several fluorescence peaks, demonstrating the importance of deciduous leaf fall in generating DOC and DBP precursors. The high level of human activities in the middle and lower portion of the basin—including timber harvesting and road construction on private forestland, agricultural, rural, industrial, and urban development—have resulted in the greatest loss in native coniferous and mixed deciduous forests in the basin. DOC loading from these tributaries and reservoir releases, which contain DOC from terrestrial and aquatic productivity, both enrich the McKenzie River. Concentrations of DOC increased an average of 71 percent (range 30–120 percent) in the McKenzie River between Frissell Bridge, the upstream reference site, and Vida. PARAFAC components C1, C2, and C5—which were correlated with DBPs in finished water—increased, on average, 109–136 percent (range 20–250 percent) in this same Frissell-to-Vida reach. These increases occur from input of tributaries in the middle basin such as Quartz Creek and others, as noted above. Future monitoring, field, and lab studies can improve our understanding of seasonal and spatial sources of organic carbon contributing DBP precursors to the McKenzie River and allow detection of long-term trends resulting from the recent Holiday Farm Fire, which burned 173,393 acres of forestland, including riparian areas along the main stem, and numerous structures, homes, and outbuildings in September 2020. Future studies could examine DOC fluxes and flushing of carbon from the watershed, investigate the role of precipitation amount and intensity in mobilizing carbon and sediment, and evaluate impacts to aquatic communities and human health as part of a post-fire assessment. Other areas ripe for study include evaluating the impacts of potential temperature increases on carbon sequestration and decomposition in the burned and unburned forests and identifying practices that foster sequestration of carbon in forest soils. The use of fluorescence sensors such as fDOM to monitor the concentration and composition of raw water supplies may be improved for detection of specific DBP precursors, to provide continuous and real-time information to treatment plant operators. Future studies that monitor DOM amount and quality, and DBP Formation Potential (FP), particularly during storm events, paired with streamflow measurements, as suggested above, could help identify areas that contribute high DOC loads and thus help managers identify the key areas to focus restoration activities. Other studies could examine treatment options for currently regulated DBPs and potentially unregulated compounds, including advanced biological treatments for their removal. This study was a collaboration between the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and EWEB in Eugene, Oregon, with additional funding provided from USGS Cooperative Matching Funds Program.

Oregon↗

USGS1996

Hydrogeology of, and simulation of ground-water flow in, a mantled carbonate-rock system, Cumberland Valley, Pennsylvania

The U.S. Geological Survey conducted a study in a highly productive and complex regolith-mantled carbonate valley in the northeastern part of the Cumberland Valley, Pa., as part of its Appalachian Valleys and Piedmont Regional Aquifer-system Analysis program. The study was designed to quantify the hydrogeologic characteristics and understand the ground-water flow system of a highly productive and complex thickly mantled carbonate valley. The Cumberland Valley is characterized by complexly folded and faulted carbonate bedrock in the valley bottom, by shale and graywacke to the north, and by red-sedimentary and diabase rocks in the east-southeast. Near the southern valley hillslope, the carbonate rock is overlain by wedge-shaped deposit of regolith, up to 450 feet thick, that is composed of residual material, alluvium, and colluvium. Locally, saturated regolith is greater than 200 feet thick. Seepage-run data indicate that stream reaches, near valley walls, are losing water from the stream, through the regolith, to the ground-water system. Results of hydrograph-separation analyses indicate that base flow in stream basins dominated by regolith-mantled carbonate rock, carbonate rock, and carbonate rock and shale are 81.6, 93.0, and 67.7 percent of total streamflow, respectively. The relative high percentage for the regolith-mantled carbonate-rock basin indicates that the regolith stores precipitation and slowly, steadily releases this water to the carbonate-rock aquifer and to streams as base flow. Anomalies in water-table gradients and configuration are a result of topography and differences in the character and distribution of overburden material, permeability, rock type, and geologic structure. Most ground-water flow is local, and ground water discharges to nearby springs and streams. Regional flow is northeastward to the Susquehanna River. Average-annual water budgets were calculated for the period of record from two continuous streamflow-gaging stations. Average-annual precipitation range from 39.0 to 40.5 inches, and averages about 40 inches for the model area. Average-annual recharge, which was assumed equal to the average-annual base flow, ranged from 12 inches for the Conodoguinet Creek, and 15 inches for the Yellow Breeches Creek. The thickly-mantled carbonate system was modeled as a three- dimensional water-table aquifer. Recharge to, ground-water flow through, and discharge from the Cumberland Valley were simulated. The model was calibrated for steady-state conditions using average recharge and discharge data. Aquifer horizontal hydraulic conductivity was calculated from specific-capacity data for each geologic unit in the area. Particle-tracking analyses indicate that interbasin and intrabasin flows of groundwater occur within the Yellow Breeches Creek Basin and between the Yellow Breeches and Conodoguinet Creek Basins.

Pennsylvania↗

USGS2020

Substantially greater carbon emissions estimated based on annual land-use transition data

Quantifying land-use and land-cover change (LULCC) effects on carbon sources and sinks has been very challenging because of the availability and quality of LULCC data. As the largest estuary in the United States, Chesapeake Bay is a rapidly changing region and is affected by human activities. A new annual land-use and land-cover (LULC) data product developed by the U.S. Geological Survey Land Change Monitoring and Analysis Program (LCMAP) from 2001 to 2011 was analyzed for transitions between agricultural land, developed land, grassland, forest land and wetland. The Land Use and Carbon Scenario Simulator was used to simulate effects of LULCC and ecosystem disturbance in the south of the Chesapeake Bay Watershed (CBW) on carbon storage and fluxes, with carbon parameters derived from the Integrated Biosphere Simulator. We found that during the study period: (1) areas of forest land, disturbed land, agricultural land and wetland decreased by 90, 82, 57, and 65 km 2 , respectively, but developed lands gained 293 km 2 (29 km 2 annually); (2) total ecosystem carbon stock in the CBW increased by 13 Tg C from 2001 to 2011, mainly due to carbon sequestration of the forest ecosystem; (3) carbon loss was primarily attributed to urbanization (0.224 Tg C·yr −1 ) and agricultural expansion (0.046 Tg C·yr −1 ); and (4) estimated carbon emissions and harvest wood products were greater when estimated with the annual LULC input. We conclude that a dense time series of LULCC, such as that of the LCMAP program, may provide a more accurate accounting of the effects of land use change on ecosystem carbon, which is critical to understanding long-term ecosystem carbon dynamics.

Delaware, Maryland, Virginia↗

USGS2023

Changes in mangrove blue carbon under elevated atmospheric CO2

While there is consensus that blue carbon ecosystems, such as mangroves, have an important role in mitigating some aspects of global climate change, little is known about mangrove carbon cycling under elevated atmospheric CO 2 concentrations ( e CO 2 ). Here, we review studies in order to identify pathways for how e CO 2 might influence mangrove ecosystem carbon cycling. In general, e CO 2 alters plant productivity, species community composition, carbon fluxes, and carbon deposition in ways that enhance mangrove carbon storage with e CO 2 . As a result, a negative feedback to climate change exists whereby e CO 2 adds to mangrove’s ability to sequester additional carbon, which in turn reduces the rate by which CO 2 builds. Furthermore, e CO 2 affects warming and sea-level rise (SLR) through alternate pathways, which coinfluence the mangrove response in both antagonistic (i.e., warming = greater carbon loss to decomposition) and synergistic (i.e., SLR = greater soil carbon burial) ways. e CO 2 is projected to become a more prominent driver in the future before reaching a steady state. However, given the complexity of the interactions of biological and environmental factors with e CO 2 , long-term field observations and in situ simulation experiments can help to better understand the mechanisms for proper model initialization to predict future changes in mangrove carbon sequestration.

Ecosystem Health and Sustainability↗

USGS2015

An integrated approach to modeling changes in land use, land cover, and disturbance and their impact on ecosystem carbon dynamics: a case study in the Sierra Nevada Mountains of California

Increased land-use intensity (e.g. clearing of forests for cultivation, urbanization), often results in the loss of ecosystem carbon storage, while changes in productivity resulting from climate change may either help offset or exacerbate losses. However, there are large uncertainties in how land and climate systems will evolve and interact to shape future ecosystem carbon dynamics. To address this we developed the Land Use and Carbon Scenario Simulator (LUCAS) to track changes in land use, land cover, land management, and disturbance, and their impact on ecosystem carbon storage and flux within a scenario-based framework. We have combined a state-and-transition simulation model (STSM) of land change with a stock and flow model of carbon dynamics. Land-change projections downscaled from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s (IPCC) Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) were used to drive changes within the STSM, while the Integrated Biosphere Simulator (IBIS) ecosystem model was used to derive input parameters for the carbon stock and flow model. The model was applied to the Sierra Nevada Mountains ecoregion in California, USA, a region prone to large wildfires and a forestry sector projected to intensify over the next century. Three scenario simulations were conducted, including a calibration scenario, a climate-change scenario, and an integrated climate- and land-change scenario. Based on results from the calibration scenario, the LUCAS age-structured carbon accounting model was able to accurately reproduce results obtained from the process-based biogeochemical model. Under the climate-only scenario, the ecoregion was projected to be a reliable net sink of carbon, however, when land use and disturbance were introduced, the ecoregion switched to become a net source. This research demonstrates how an integrated approach to carbon accounting can be used to evaluate various drivers of ecosystem carbon change in a robust, yet transparent modeling environment.

California↗

USGS2009

Benthic biogeochemical cycling, nutrient stoichiometry, and carbon and nitrogen mass balances in a eutrophic freshwater bay

Green Bay, while representing only ~7% of the surface area and ~1.4% of the volume of Lake Michigan, contains one‐third of the watershed of the lake, and receives approximately one‐third of the total nutrient loading to the Lake Michigan basin, largely from the Fox River at the southern end of the bay. With a history of eutrophic conditions dating back nearly a century, the southern portion of the bay behaves as an efficient nutrient and sediment trap, sequestering much of the annual carbon and nitrogen input within sediments accumulating at up to 1 cm per year. Depositional fluxes of organic matter varied from ~0.1 mol C m22 yr21 to >10 mol C m −2 yr −1 and were both fairly uniform in stoichiometric composition and relatively labile. Estimates of benthic recycling derived from pore‐water concentration gradients, whole‐sediment incubation experiments, and deposition‐burial models of early diagenesis yielded an estimated 40% of the carbon and 50% of the nitrogen recycled back into the overlying water. Remineralization was relatively rapid with ~50% of the carbon remineralized within ~15 yr of deposition, and a mean residence time for metabolizable carbon and nitrogen in the sediments of 20 yr. On average, organic carbon regeneration occurred as 75% CO 2 , 15% CH 4 , and 10% dissolved organic carbon (DOC). Carbon and nitrogen budgets for the southern bay were based upon direct measurements of inputs and burial and upon estimates of export and production derived stoichiometrically from a coupled phosphorus budget. Loadings of organic carbon from rivers were ~3.7 mol m −2 yr −1 , 80% in the form of DOC and 20% as particulate organic carbon. These inputs were lost through export to northern Green Bay and Lake Michigan (39%), through sediment burial (26%), and net CO 2 release to the atmosphere (35%). Total carbon input, including new production, was 4.54 mol m −2 yr −1 , equivalent to ~10% of the gross annual primary production. Nitrogen budget terms were less well quantified, with nitrogen export ~54% of total inputs and burial ~24%, leaving an unquantified residual loss term in the nitrogen budget of ~22%.

Green Bay↗