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Use of the superpopulation approach to estimate breeding population size: An example in asynchronously breeding birds

Many populations of animals are fluid in both space and time, making estimation of numbers difficult. Much attention has been devoted to estimation of bias in detection of animals that are present at the time of survey. However, an equally important problem is estimation of population size when all animals are not present on all survey occasions. Here, we showcase use of the superpopulation approach to capture–recapture modeling for estimating populations where group membership is asynchronous, and where considerable overlap in group membership among sampling occasions may occur. We estimate total population size of long‐legged wading bird (Great Egret and White Ibis) breeding colonies from aerial observations of individually identifiable nests at various times in the nesting season. Initiation and termination of nests were analogous to entry and departure from a population. Estimates using the superpopulation approach were 47–382% larger than peak aerial counts of the same colonies. Our results indicate that the use of the superpopulation approach to model nesting asynchrony provides a considerably less biased and more efficient estimate of nesting activity than traditional methods. We suggest that this approach may also be used to derive population estimates in a variety of situations where group membership is fluid.

Florida

Science for avian conservation: Priorities for the new millennium

Over the past decade, bird conservation activities have become the preeminent natural resource conservation effort in North America. Maturation of the North American Waterfowl Management Plan (NAWMP), establishment of Partners in Flight (PIF), and creation of comprehensive colonial waterbird and shorebird conservation plans have stimulated unprecedented interest in, and funding for, bird conservation in the United States, Canada, Mexico, and other countries in the western hemisphere. Key to that success in the United States has been active collaboration among federal, state and local governments, conservation organizations, academia, and industry. The U.S. Department of the Interior (DOI), which has primary statutory responsibility for migratory bird conservation and management, has been a key partner. Despite the great strides that have been made in bird conservation science, historical approaches to research and monitoring have often failed to provide sufficient information and understanding to effectively manage bird populations at large spatial scales. That shortcoming, and the lack of an integrated strategy and comprehensive set of research priorities, is more evident in light of the goals established by the North American Bird Conservation Initiative (NABCI). The NABCI is a trinational, coalition-driven effort to provide an organizational umbrella for existing conservation initiatives. The expanded focus of NABCI and individual bird conservation initiatives is to work together in an integrated, holistic fashion to keep common birds common and to increase populations of declining, threatened, and endangered species. To assist bird conservation initiatives in defining goals and developing new approaches to effective research, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), the research agency of DOI, convened a workshop, “Science for Avian Conservation: Understanding, Modeling, and Applying Ecological Relationships,” on 31 October–2 November 2000, which brought together 51 scientists from USGS, as well as scientists and conservationists from other agencies and organizations actively participating in NABCI. As the lead federal agency involved in bird conservation research, USGS has a clear legislative mandate to provide scientific information upon which future management plans and actions will be built. This article summarizes key issues and recommendations that arose from that workshop. The principal goal of the workshop was to guide USGS in defining its role, assessing capabilities, and directing future agency planning in support of bird conservation. A major component was to identify key areas of research needed in this new era of bird conservation science. Although tailored to the mission of USGS, workshop recommendations visualize a bold direction for future avian conservation science in which research and monitoring work in tandem with management to increase our understanding of avian populations and the processes that affect them. The USGS is a science agency whose role is to provide objective scientific information to management agencies and therefore is not directly involved in high-level resource policy-making or on-the-ground management decision making. Nevertheless, it is important to note that effective policy decision making must integrate the best available science with political and economic realities to achieve successful avian conservation—an important subject acknowledged in the workshop, but largely beyond its scope of discussion. Williams (2003) questions regarding how scientific information can be effectively communicated to decision makers and incorporated into natural resource policy. Without an aggressive vision and the willingness of researchers, managers, and policy makers to implement it, conservation of North American birds is likely to proceed without the full benefit of scientific investigation. These recommendations represent the principal conclusions drawn by workshop participants and do not necessarily reflect official USGS policy.

The Auk

Habitat and landscape correlates of presence, density, and species richness of birds wintering in forest fragments in Ohio

We investigated the distribution of wintering woodland bird species in 47 very small, isolated, woodland fragments (0.54-6.01 ha) within an agricultural landscape in north-central Ohio. Our objectives were to determine correlations between temporal, habitat, and landscape variables and avian presence, density, and species richness within the smallest woodlots occupied by such species. Our results suggest that even common species are sensitive to variation in habitat, landscape, and season. Woodlot area explained the most variation in presence, density, and species richness. Shrub cover was also an important predictor variable for presence of the smallest resident birds. Shrub cover might function as both a refuge from predators and as a windbreak, reducing thermal costs in a flat, open landscape. Landscape factors related to isolation and connectedness were also correlated with species presence and density. The species composition of the community changed through the winter, as did the density of individual species, suggesting that the winter season may play an important role in determining the distributions of bird populations across woodlots. The models presented here for Ohio birds in this specific landscape may have biological inference for other species in similar landscapes.

Ohio

Intestinal coccidiosis

Coccidia are a complex and diverse group of protozoan (single-celled organisms) parasites; the coccidia group contains many species, most of which do not cause clinical disease. In birds, most disease-causing or pathogenic forms of coccidia parasites belong to the genus Eimeria. Coccidia usually invade the intestinal tract, but some invade other organs, such as the liver and kidney (see Chapter 27). Clinical illness caused by infection with these parasites is referred to as coccidiosis, but their presence without disease is called coccidiasis. In most cases, a bird that is infected by coccidia will develop immunity from disease and it will recover unless it is reinfected. The occurrence of disease depends, in part, upon the number of host cells that are destroyed by the juvenile form of the parasite, and this is moderated by many factors. Severely infected birds may die very quickly. Often, tissue damage to the bird’s intestine results in interrupted feeding; disruption of digestive processes or nutrient absorption; dehydration; anemia; and increased susceptibility to other disease agents. In cranes, coccidia that normally inhabit the intestine sometimes become widely distributed throughout the body. The resulting disease, disseminated visceral coccidiosis (DVC) of cranes, is characterized by nodules, or granulomas, on the surface of organs and tissues that contain developmental stages of the parasite. Collectively, coccidia are important parasites of domestic animals, but, because each coccidia species has a preference for parasitizing a particular bird species and because of the self-limiting nature of most infections, coccidiosis in freeranging birds has not been of great concern. However, habitat losses that concentrate bird populations and the increasing numbers of captive-reared birds that are released into the wild enhance the potential for problems with coccidiosis.

Information and Technology Report

Comparison of neotropical migrant landbird populations wintering in tropical forest, isolated forest fragments, and agricultural habitats

Neotropical migrant bird populations were sampled at 76 sites in seven countries by using mist nets and point counts during a six-winter study. Populations in major agricultural habitats were compared with those in extensive forest and isolated forest fragments. Certain Neotropical migrants, such as the Northern Parula, American Redstart, and the Black-throated Blue, Magnolia, Black-and-white, and Hooded warblers, were present in arboreal agricultural habitats such as pine, cacao, citrus, and shade coffee plantations in relatively large numbers. Many north temperate zone shrub-nesting species, such as the Gray Catbird, White-eyed Vireo, Tennessee Warbler, Common Yellowthroat, and Indigo Bunting, also used agricultural habitats in winter, as did resident hummingbirds and migrant orioles. Ground-foraging migrants, such as thrushes and Kentucky Warblers, were rarely found in the agricultural habitats sampled. Although many Neotropical migrants use some croplands, this use might be severely limited by overgrazing by cattle, by intensive management (such as removal of ground cover in an orchard), or by heavy use of insecticides, herbicides, or fungicides.

Book chapter

Will a warmer and wetter future cause extinction of native Hawaiian forest birds?

Isolation of the Hawaiian archipelago produced a highly endemic and unique avifauna. Avian malaria ( Plasmodium relictum ), an introduced mosquito-borne pathogen, is a primary cause of extinctions and declines of these endemic honeycreepers. Our research assesses how global climate change will affect future malaria risk and native bird populations. We used an epidemiological model to evaluate future bird-mosquito-malaria dynamics in response to alternative climate projections from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP). Climate changes during the second half of the century accelerate malaria transmission and cause a dramatic decline in bird abundance. Different temperature and precipitation patterns produce divergent trajectories where native birds persist with low malaria infection under a warmer and dryer projection (RCP4.5), but suffer high malaria infection and severe reductions under hot and dry (RCP8.5) or warm and wet (A1B) futures. We conclude that future global climate change will cause significant decreases in the abundance and diversity of remaining Hawaiian bird communities. Because these effects appear unlikely before mid-century, natural resource managers have time to implement conservation strategies to protect this unique avifauna from further decimation. Similar climatic drivers for avian and human malaria suggest that mitigation strategies for Hawai'i have broad application to human health.

Hawai'i

An integrated population model for bird monitoring in North America

Integrated population models (IPMs) provide a unified framework for simultaneously analyzing data sets of different types to estimate vital rates, population size, and dynamics; assess contributions of demographic parameters to population changes; and assess population viability. Strengths of an IPM include the ability to estimate latent parameters and improve the precision of parameter estimates. We present a hierarchical IPM that combines two broad‐scale avian monitoring data sets: count data from the North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) and capture–recapture data from the Monitoring Avian Productivity and Survivorship (MAPS) program. These data sets are characterized by large numbers of sample sites and observers, factors capable of inducing error in the sampling and observation processes. The IPM integrates the data sets by modeling the population abundance as a first‐order autoregressive function of the previous year's population abundance and vital rates. BBS counts were modeled as a log‐linear function of the annual index of population abundance, observation effects (observer identity and first survey year), and overdispersion. Vital rates modeled included adult apparent survival, estimated from a transient Cormack‐Jolly‐Seber model using MAPS data, and recruitment (surviving hatched birds from the previous season + dispersing adults) estimated as a latent parameter. An assessment of the IPM demonstrated it could recover true parameter values from 200 simulated data sets. The IPM was applied to data sets (1992–2008) of two bird species, Gray Catbird ( Dumetella carolinensis ) and Wood Thrush ( Hylocichla mustelina ) in the New England/Mid‐Atlantic coastal Bird Conservation Region of the United States. The Gray Catbird population was relatively stable (trend +0.4% per yr), while the Wood Thrush population nearly halved (trend −4.5% per yr) over the 17‐yr study period. IPM estimates of population growth rates, adult survival, and detection and residency probabilities were similar and as precise as estimates from the stand‐alone BBS and CJS models. A benefit of using the IPM was its ability to estimate the latent recruitment parameter. Annual growth rates for both species correlated more with recruitment than survival, and the relationship for Wood Thrush was stronger than for Gray Catbird. The IPM's unified modeling framework facilitates integration of these important data sets.

Ecological Applications

North American Breeding Bird Survey Annual Summary, 1988

Introduction: The North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) is run by approximately 2,000 skilled amateur ornithologists, and is coordinated cooperatively by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service and the Canadian Wildlife Service. Beginning in 1966, BBS cooperators have been collecting standardized information on North American bird populations. The BBS is a roadside survey, comprised of permanent routes that are surveyed yearly. Each route is 39.4 km (24.5 miles) long and consists of 50 stops spaced 0.8 km (0.5 mile) apart. All birds heard or seen during a 3-min observation period at each stop are recorded, and the sum of the individual stops for each species is used as an index of species density on the route. In this report, we present the population changes of the 222 bird species reported on > 50 BBS routes during 1987 and 1988. Population trends for 1966-87 are presented for comparison. Owing to space constraints, trends are not reported for States, Provinces, or physiographic regions. Instead, we present maps illustrating patterns of population change for selected species, and summarize State and physiographic strata patterns of population change as the proportion of species that increased in each region. Detailed State, Provincial, and physiographic strata changes arc available to interested readers.

Biological Report

Modeling avian detection probabilities as a function of habitat using double-observer point count data

Point counts are a controversial sampling method for bird populations because the counts are not censuses, and the proportion of birds missed during counting generally is not estimated. We applied a double-observer approach to estimate detection rates of birds from point counts in Maryland, USA, and test whether detection rates differed between point counts conducted in field habitats as opposed to wooded habitats. We conducted 2 analyses. The first analysis was based on 4 clusters of counts (routes) surveyed by a single pair of observers. A series of models was developed with differing assumptions about sources of variation in detection probabilities and fit using program SURVIV. The most appropriate model was selected using Akaike's Information Criterion. The second analysis was based on 13 routes (7 woods and 6 field routes) surveyed by various observers in which average detection rates were estimated by route and compared using a t-test. In both analyses, little evidence existed for variation in detection probabilities in relation to habitat. Double-observer methods provide a reasonable means of estimating detection probabilities and testing critical assumptions needed for analysis of point counts.

Book chapter

Migration and energetics model predicts delayed migration and likely starvation in oiled waterbirds

Oil spills can inflict mortality and injury on bird populations; many of these deaths involve starvation resulting from thermoregulatory costs incurred by oiling of birds’ feathers. However, the fates and responses of sublethally oiled birds are poorly known. Due to this knowledge gap and the potential for birds to die far from the spill site, resource risk and injury assessors need tools to make informed estimates for delayed deaths and lost reproductive capacity in these birds. Focusing on the thermoregulatory cost of oiled feathers, we present a model addressing one facet of the effects of sublethal oiling on birds. Using mallard-like ducks as a model organism, we combined values from previous laboratory studies of oiled birds with a modified version of an existing temperature-influenced avian migration energetics model. Using this model, we examined the potential effects of oiling on general migration patterns, changes in energetic gains required to compensate for oiling, and starvation. We assessed all metrics across multiple oiling severities; we assessed starvation across both oiling severity and body condition. Median estimates for delays in spring migration were one to two months for trace and lightly oiled birds, and we predicted arrested spring migration in moderately oiled birds. Median estimates of required increases in energetic gains to offset costs of increased thermoregulation ranged from 20.3% to 88.6% depending on severity of oiling. We predicted starvation within four weeks for most combinations of oiling severity and body condition at the median predicted minimum wintering temperature of unoiled birds (-4.9°C). However, at the average winter temperature of the southernmost model latitude (10.8°C), we predicted only moderately oiled birds in less-than-excellent body condition had the potential to starve within a four-week time frame. Due to the potential for even trace oiling to delay spring migration and decrease body condition, the thermoregulatory costs of sublethal oiling during spring migration could reduce a bird's reproductive capacity. Future research integrating this initial energetics-based model into a spatially explicit, population scale migration model could provide additional insight into the potential effects of sublethal oiling on reproduction and survival. Such an integrated model could strengthen risk predictions and injury assessments for birds subjected to sublethal oiling.

Ecological Modelling

North American Breeding Bird Survey Annual Summary, 1989

The North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) is run by approximately 2,000 skilled amateur ornithologists and is coordinated cooperatively by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service and the Canadian Wildlife Service. Since 1966, BBS cooperators have been collecting standardized information on North American bird populations. The BBS is a roadside survey, comprised of permanent routes that are surveyed yearly. Each route is 39.4 km (24.5 miles) long and consists of 50 stops spaced 0.8 km (0.5 mile) apart. All birds heard or seen during a 3-min observation period at each stop are recorded, and, for each species, the sum of the counts on individual stops is used as an index of species density on the route. Survey routes occur throughout the continental United States and most of Canada. Here, we present the population changes of the 251 bird species reported on the 50 or more BBS routes in the survey region during 1988 and 1989. Population trends for 1966-89 are presented for comparison. The direction and significance of population changes between the years for the 306 species occurring on 10 or more routes within States and Provinces are summarized in Appendix B. The pattern of population changes for selected species is graphically summarized on maps by physiographic stratum.

Biological Report

Survival models for harvest management of mourning dove populations

Quantitative models of the relationship between annual survival and harvest rate of migratory game-bird populations are essential to science-based harvest management strategies. I used the best available band-recovery and harvest data for mourning doves (Zenaida macroura) to build a set of models based on different assumptions about compensatory harvest mortality. Although these models suffer from lack of contemporary data, they can be used in development of an initial set of population models that synthesize existing demographic data on a management-unit scale, and serve as a tool for prioritization of population demographic information needs. Credible harvest management plans for mourning dove populations will require a long-term commitment to population monitoring and iterative population analysis.

Journal of Wildlife Management

Sexually transmitted bacteria affect female cloacal assemblages in a wild bird

Sexual transmission is an important mode of disease propagation, yet its mechanisms remain largely unknown in wild populations. Birds comprise an important model for studying sexually transmitted microbes because their cloaca provides a potential for both gastrointestinal pathogens and endosymbionts to become incorporated into ejaculates. We experimentally demonstrate in a wild population of kittiwakes ( Rissa tridactyla ) that bacteria are transmitted during copulation and affect the composition and diversity of female bacterial communities. We used an anti-insemination device attached to males in combination with a molecular technique (automated ribosomal intergenic spacer analysis) that describes bacterial communities. After inseminations were experimentally blocked, the cloacal communities of mates became increasingly dissimilar. Moreover, female cloacal diversity decreased and the extinction of mate-shared bacteria increased, indicating that female cloacal assemblages revert to their pre-copulatory state and that the cloaca comprises a resilient microbial ecosystem.

Ecology Letters

Genetic structure and population history in two critically endangered Kaua‘i honeycreepers

Population sizes of endemic songbirds on Kaua‘i have decreased by an order of magnitude over the past 10–15 years to dangerously low numbers. The primary cause appears to be the ascent of invasive mosquitoes and Plasmodium relictum , the agent of avian malaria, into elevations formerly free of introduced malarial parasites and their vectors. Given that these declines in native bird populations appear to be continuing, last resort measures to save these species from extinction, such as conservation breeding, are being implemented. Using 200–1439 SNPs from across the genome, we assessed kinship among individuals, levels of genetic variation, and extent of population decline in wild birds of the two most critically endangered Kaua‘i endemic species, the ‘akikiki ( Oreomystis bairdi ) and ‘akeke‘e ( Loxops caeruleirostris ). We found relatively high genomic diversity within individuals and little evidence of spatial population genetic structure. Populations displayed genomic signatures of declining population size, but individual inbreeding coefficients were universally negative, likely indicating inbreeding avoidance. Diversity within the founding conservation breeding population largely mirrored that in the wild, indicating that genetic variation in the conservation breeding population is representative of the wild population and suggesting that the current breeding program captures existing variation. Thus, although existing genetic diversity is likely lower than in historical populations, contemporary variation has been retained through high gene flow and inbreeding avoidance. Nonetheless, current effective population size for both species was estimated at fewer than 20 individuals, highlighting the urgency of management actions to protect these species.

Hawaii

Interpreting population estimates of birds following pesticide applications--behavior of male starlings exposed to an organophosphate pesticide

We determined activity budgets for 10 pairs of captive male Starlings between 7 May and 18 July 1980. Our objective was to quantify changes in behavior after exposure to an organophosphate (OP) pesticide and to assess the impact of changes in behavior on the interpretation of population estimates of birds following pesticide applications. We observed each pair of males for an hour at 07:30 and 09:30 for four days and classified their behavior into one of four categories: flying, perching, foraging, or singing and displaying. At 06:30 on day 2, one male received a single oral dose of 2.5 mg dicrotophos (3-hydroxy-N, N-dimethyl-cis-crotonamide dimethyl phosphate) per kg of body weight; the other male received an equivalent exposure of corn oil. Changes in the activity budgets of OP-dosed and control males were compared using t-tests. Activity of OP-dosed males was significantly (P _ 0.05) reduced within the 2-4 h following exposure. OP-dosed males spent more time perching (46.1%) than controls and less time flying (-96.6%), foraging (-28.5%), and singing and displaying (-49.5%). The frequency of perching (-75.3%), flying (-83.8%), foraging (-54.1%), and singing and displaying (- 59.2%) was significantly reduced. Activity in OP-dosed males returned to normal by 26-28 h posttreatment. Results suggest that movement and vocalization may be significantly reduced in birds exposed to organophosphate and carbamate pesticides. Conventional censusing techniques and population estimating procedures may, therefore, be inadequate to assess changes in bird populations after pesticide applications because of the difficulty in separating decreases in density due to mortality or emigration from reductions in activity.

Book chapter

Foraging habitat selection of shrubland bird community in tropical dry forest

Habitat loss due to increasing anthropogenic disturbance is the major driver for bird population declines across the globe. Within the Eastern Ghats of India, shrubland bird communities are threatened by shrinking of suitable habitats due to increased anthropogenic disturbance and climate change. The development of an effective habitat management strategy is hampered by the absence of data for this bird community. To address this knowledge gap, we examined foraging sites for 14 shrubland bird species, including three declining species, in three study areas representing the shrubland type of forest community in the Eastern Ghats. We recorded microhabitat features within an 11 m radius of observed foraging points and compared these data with similar data from random plots. We used chi-square to test the association between plant species and bird species for sites where they were observed foraging. We observed significant differences between foraging sites of all the study species and random plots, thus indicating selection for foraging habitat. Using linear discriminant analysis, we found that the microhabitat features important for the bird species were shrub density, vegetational height, vertical foliage stratification, grass height, and percent rock cover. Our results show that diet guild and foraging strata influence the foraging microhabitat selection of a species (e.g., ground-foraging species differed significantly from other species). Except for two species, all focal birds were associated with at least one plant species. The plant-bird association was based on foraging, structural, or behavioral preferences. Several key factors affecting foraging habitat such as shrub density can be actively managed at the local scale. Strategic and selective harvesting of forest products and a spatially and temporally controlled livestock grazing regime may allow regeneration of scrubland and create conditions favorable to birds.

Andhra Pradesh

North American Breeding Bird Survey in Mississippi

Does it seem like you are hearing fewer Northern Bobwhite (Colinus virginianus) calls in recent years than you remember when you were younger? Conversely, have you also noticed hearing more “cooing” of Eurasian Collared-Doves (Streptopelia decaocto)? Do such experiences reflect changes in bird populations or are they false impressions? Well, fortunately for us, we have one of the most powerful wildlife data sets freely available, only a few mouse clicks away, for divining these answers. For most of our songbirds, their population trends are estimated from data gathered during the North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS).

Mississippi