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Practitioners’ perceived risks to biodiversity from renewable energy expansion through 2050

Large-scale (e.g., > 1 megawatt capacity) wind and solar energy (hereafter, LSWS) developments are increasing to aid decarbonization. However, LSWS can also negatively affect biodiversity. Planners and other interested parties’ perceptions about the impact of LSWS on biodiversity will thus affect how trade-offs are managed during planning and buildout. We present a survey of professionals (n=116) working at the intersection of LSWS and biodiversity protection across the United States concerning: (1) perceived environmental impacts from LSWS expansion; and (2) how these impacts compare to other land-use and land-cover change drivers. We find that practitioners perceive LSWS to impact biodiversity negatively but less so than other land-cover change drivers, including fossil fuels and agriculture. This highlights the need for increased attention to the role of practitioners in advancing renewable energy and biodiversity conservation.

Humanities and Social Sciences Communications

Assessing the use of long-term lek survey data to evaluate the effect of landscape characteristics and wind facilities on sharp-tailed grouse lek dynamics in North Dakota and South Dakota

The contribution of renewable energy to meet worldwide demand continues to grow. In the United States, wind energy is one of the fastest growing renewable energy sectors. Throughout the Great Plains of the United States, wind facilities often are placed in open landscapes of high-elevation grasslands, and those same habitats support sharp-tailed grouse ( Tympanuchus phasianellus ), a resident gamebird species. To assess the feasibility of using independently derived, long-term datasets gathered in North Dakota and South Dakota to determine whether wind facilities affected lek metrics, the U.S. Geological Survey obtained six datasets and identified 37 study sites, 9 of which contained wind turbines at varying densities. The association between explanatory variables that described geographic, landscape, and climatic attributes with two primary response metrics that described lekking activity within study sites—lek density (leks per square kilometer) and mean number of males per lek—was examined. The explanatory variables included number of turbines, geographic location, elevation, land-cover attributes available from satellite-derived land-cover data, soil moisture, precipitation, and temperature. Sampling units consisted of township-sized blocks, and lek information came from roadside surveys. Low sample sizes of constructed wind facilities available at the time of analysis did not lend itself to advanced statistical techniques, such as employing a rigorous design structure or assessing accuracy on landscape, geographic, or climatic variables. Given the quality of the data, the estimates obtained for lek density and mean number of males per lek should be considered approximations; however, these estimates have value in designing future studies, such as providing estimates for power analyses to determine sufficient sample size. No strong associations were found between the included explanatory variables and response variables (when these variables were measured as described in this report for township-sized blocks). The strongest association was that lek density and mean number of males per lek increased from South Dakota to North Dakota. Owing to the highly unbalanced distribution of turbine and nonturbine study sites across the study area, the analysis with wind turbines was inconclusive. The constraints under which the analysis can be used and the limitations of the independently derived datasets in attempted applications are discussed.

North Dakota, South Dakota

Geese migrating over the Pacific Ocean select altitudes coinciding with offshore wind turbine blades

Renewable energy facilities are a key part of mitigating climate change, but can pose threats to wild birds and bats, most often through collisions with infrastructure. Understanding collision risk and the factors affecting it can help minimize impacts on wild populations. For wind turbines, flight altitude is a major factor influencing collision risk, and altitude-selection analyses can evaluate when and why animals fly at certain altitudes under certain conditions. We used GPS tags to track Pacific Flyway geese (Pacific greater white-fronted goose, tule greater white-fronted goose and lesser snow goose) on transoceanic migrations between Alaska and the Pacific Coast of the contiguous United States, an area where offshore windfarm development is beginning. We evaluated how geographic and environmental covariates affected (1) whether birds were at rest on the water versus in flight (binomial model) and (2) altitude selection when in flight (similar to a step-selection framework). We then used a Monte Carlo simulation to predict the probability of flying at each altitude under various conditions, considering both the fly/rest decision and altitude selection. In both spring and fall, geese showed strong selection for altitudes within the expected rotor-swept zone (20–200 m asl), with 56% of locations expected to be within the rotor-swept zone under mean daylight conditions and 28% at night. This indicates a high possibility that migrating geese may be at risk of collision when passing through windfarms. Although there was some variation across subspecies, geese were most likely to be within the rotor-swept zone with little wind or light tailwinds, low clouds, little to no precipitation and moderate to cool air temperatures. Geese were unlikely to be in the rotor-swept zone at night, when most individuals were at rest on the water. Synthesis and applications . These results could be used to inform windfarm management, including decisions to shut down turbines when collision risk is high. The altitude-selection framework we demonstrate could facilitate further study of other bird species to develop a holistic view of how windfarms in this area could affect the migratory bird community as a whole.

Journal of Applied Ecology

Examining the utility of satellite-based wind sheltering estimates for lake hydrodynamic modeling

Satellite-based measurements of vegetation canopy structure have been in common use for the last decade but have never been used to estimate canopy's impact on wind sheltering of individual lakes. Wind sheltering is caused by slower winds in the wake of topography and shoreline obstacles (e.g. forest canopy) and influences heat loss and the flux of wind-driven mixing energy into lakes, which control lake temperatures and indirectly structure lake ecosystem processes, including carbon cycling and thermal habitat partitioning. Lakeshore wind sheltering has often been parameterized by lake surface area but such empirical relationships are only based on forested lakeshores and overlook the contributions of local land cover and terrain to wind sheltering. This study is the first to examine the utility of satellite imagery-derived broad-scale estimates of wind sheltering across a diversity of land covers. Using 30 m spatial resolution ASTER GDEM2 elevation data, the mean sheltering height, h s , being the combination of local topographic rise and canopy height above the lake surface, is calculated within 100 m-wide buffers surrounding 76,000 lakes in the U.S. state of Wisconsin. Uncertainty of GDEM2-derived h s was compared to SRTM-, high-resolution G-LiHT lidar-, and ICESat-derived estimates of h s , respective influences of land cover type and buffer width on h s are examined; and the effect of including satellite-based h s on the accuracy of a statewide lake hydrodynamic model was discussed. Though GDEM2 h s uncertainty was comparable to or better than other satellite-based measures of h s , its higher spatial resolution and broader spatial coverage allowed more lakes to be included in modeling efforts. GDEM2 was shown to offer superior utility for estimating h s compared to other satellite-derived data, but was limited by its consistent underestimation of h s , inability to detect within-buffer h s variability, and differing accuracy across land cover types. Nonetheless, considering a GDEM2 h s -derived wind sheltering potential improved the modeled lake temperature root mean square error for non-forested lakes by 0.72 °C compared to a commonly used wind sheltering model based on lake area alone. While results from this study show promise, the limitations of near-global GDEM2 data in timeliness, temporal and spatial resolution, and vertical accuracy were apparent. As hydrodynamic modeling and high-resolution topographic mapping efforts both expand, future remote sensing-derived vegetation structure data must be improved to meet wind sheltering accuracy requirements to expand our understanding of lake processes.

Remote Sensing of Environment

Correlating seabird movements with ocean winds: linking satellite telemetry with ocean scatterometry.

Satellite telemetry studies of the movements of seabirds are now common and have revealed impressive flight capabilities and extensive distributions among individuals and species at sea. Linking seabird movements with environmental conditions over vast expanses of the world's open ocean, however, remains difficult. Seabirds of the order Procellariiformes (e.g., petrels, albatrosses, and shearwaters) depend largely on wind and wave energy for efficient flight. We present a new method for quantifying the movements of far-ranging seabirds in relation to ocean winds measured by the SeaWinds scatterometer onboard the QuikSCAT satellite. We apply vector correlation (as defined by Crosby et al. in J Atm Ocean Tech 10:355-367, 1993) to evaluate how the trajectories (ground speed and direction) for five procellariiform seabirds outfitted with satellite transmitters are related to ocean winds. Individual seabirds (Sooty Shearwater, Pink-footed Shearwater, Hawaiian Petrel, Grey-faced Petrel, and Black-footed Albatross) all traveled predominantly with oblique, isotropic crossing to quartering tail-winds (i.e., 105-165 degrees in relation to birds' trajectory). For all five seabirds, entire track line trajectories were significantly correlated with co-located winds. Greatest correlations along 8-day path segments were related to wind patterns during birds' directed, long-range migration (Sooty Shearwater) as well as movements associated with mega-scale meteorological phenomena, including Pacific Basin anticyclones (Hawaiian Petrel, Grey-faced Petrel) and eastward-propagating north Pacific cyclones (Black-footed Albatross). Wind strength and direction are important factors related to the overall movements that delineate the distribution of petrels at sea. We suggest that vector correlation can be used to quantify movements for any marine vertebrate when tracking and environmental data (winds or currents) are of sufficient quality and sample size. Vector correlation coefficients can then be used to assess population--or species-specific variability and used to test specific hypotheses related to how animal movements are associated with fluid environments.

Marine Biology

Learning from real-world experience to understand renewable energy impacts to wildlife

The project team sought to use real-world data to understand adverse effects to wildlife of renewable energy production that is critical to meeting California’s climate and clean energy goals. The project had three main components. First, a systematic literature review studied 20 peer-reviewed publications and 612 reports from other nonreviewed sources from 231 wind and solar facilities in North America. Within California, 50 percent of facilities collected pre- and post-construction data, 30 percent had experimental study designs, and fewer than 7 percent estimated detection probability during habitat use surveys. Mitigation at wind power plants focused on repowering to reduce risk to soaring birds and at solar facilities emphasized wildlife deterrence and compensatory mitigation. Second, the authors developed a best-practices approach to employ environmental isotopes (for example, hydrogen obtained from animal tissue) and rescaling functions (a statistical approach to modeling the relationship between variables) to assign individual birds or bats to their place of origin. The team applied this approach to feathers from 411 individuals of 12 species killed at wind facilities and 515 individuals of 19 species killed at solar facilities. From 24 percent to 100 percent (mean +/- SD = 49 percent +/- 33 percent) and 25 percent to 100 percent (73 percent +/- 25 percent) of birds grew feathers at a location outside the collection site at wind and solar facilities, respectively. Third, the authors constructed Bayesian integrated population models (probability models) for 29 focal species affected by wind or solar energy generation in California. Species predominantly local in origin generally had lower population growth rates than did species that were predominantly nonlocal in origin. These patterns illustrate the complex linkages between behavioral ecology, vulnerability to mortality, and population-level impacts to wildlife from fatalities at renewable energy facilities. This project benefits the renewable energy sector by providing a framework and specific tools for understanding environmental impacts of renewable energy generation.

California

Coastal impacts, adaptation, and vulnerabilities: a technical input to the 2013 National Climate Assessment

The coast has long provided communities with a multitude of benefits including an abundance of natural resources that sustain economies, societies, and ecosystems. Coasts provide natural harbors for commerce, trade, and transportation; beaches and shorelines that attract residents and tourists; and wetlands and estuaries that are critical for fisheries and water resources. Coastal ecosystems provide critical functions to cycle and move nutrients, store carbon, detoxify wastes, and purify air and water. These areas also mitigate floods and buffer against coastal storms that bring high winds and salt water inland and erode the shore. Coastal regions are critical in the development, transportation, and processing of oil and natural gas resources and, more recently, are being explored as a source of energy captured from wind and waves. The many benefits and opportunities provided in coastal areas have strengthened our economic reliance on coastal resources. Consequently, the high demands placed on the coastal environment will increase commensurately with human activity. Because 35 U.S. states, commonwealths, and territories have coastlines that border the oceans or Great Lakes, impacts to coastline systems will reverberate through social, economic, and natural systems across the U.S. Impacts on coastal systems are among the most costly and most certain consequences of a warming climate (Nicholls et al., 2007). The warming atmosphere is expected to accelerate sea-level rise as a result of the decline of glaciers and ice sheets and the thermal expansion of sea water. As mean sea level rises, coastal shorelines will retreat and low-lying areas will tend to be inundated more frequently, if not permanently, by the advancing sea. As atmospheric temperature increases and rainfall patterns change, soil moisture and runoff to the coast are likely to be altered. An increase in the intensity of climatic extremes such as storms and heat spells, coupled with other impacts of climate change and the effects of human development, could affect the sustainability of many existing coastal communities and natural resources. This report, one of a series of technical inputs for the third NCA conducted under the auspices of the U.S. Global Change Research Program, examines the known effects and relationships of climate change variables on the coasts of the U.S. It describes the impacts on natural and human systems, including several major sectors of the U.S. economy, and the progress and challenges to planning and implementing adaptation options. Below we present the key findings from each chapter of the report, beginning with the following key findings from Chapter 1: Introduction and Context.

Book

Wind, waves, and wing loading: Morphological specialization may limit range expansion of endangered albatrosses

Among the varied adaptations for avian flight, the morphological traits allowing large-bodied albatrosses to capitalize on wind and wave energy for efficient long-distance flight are unparalleled. Consequently, the biogeographic distribution of most albatrosses is limited to the windiest oceanic regions on earth; however, exceptions exist. Species breeding in the North and Central Pacific Ocean (Phoebastria spp.) inhabit regions of lower wind speed and wave height than southern hemisphere genera, and have large intrageneric variation in body size and aerodynamic performance. Here, we test the hypothesis that regional wind and wave regimes explain observed differences in Phoebastria albatross morphology and we compare their aerodynamic performance to representatives from the other three genera of this globally distributed avian family. In the North and Central Pacific, two species (short-tailed P. albatrus and waved P. irrorata) are markedly larger, yet have the smallest breeding ranges near highly productive coastal upwelling systems. Short-tailed albatrosses, however, have 60% higher wing loading (weight per area of lift) compared to waved albatrosses. Indeed, calculated aerodynamic performance of waved albatrosses, the only tropical albatross species, is more similar to those of their smaller congeners (black-footed P. nigripes and Laysan P. immutabilis), which have relatively low wing loading and much larger foraging ranges that include central oceanic gyres of relatively low productivity. Globally, the aerodynamic performance of short-tailed and waved albatrosses are most anomalous for their body sizes, yet consistent with wind regimes within their breeding season foraging ranges. Our results are the first to integrate global wind and wave patterns with albatross aerodynamics, thereby identifying morphological specialization that may explain limited breeding ranges of two endangered albatross species. These results are further relevant to understanding past and potentially predicting future distributional limits of albatrosses globally, particularly with respect to climate change effects on basin-scale and regional wind fields.

PLoS ONE

Oklahoma and Landsat

Oklahoma benefits from a varied landscape abundant in resources. Mountains, grasslands, reservoirs, rivers, fields, and forests offer employment and enjoyment in a State that epitomizes the transition from north to south and east to west. Wheat grows in northern Oklahoma; cotton grows in the south. Wetter deciduous forest lands in the southeast contrast with drier mesas in the northwest. Among the many lakes and reservoirs, the Great Salt Plains Lake on the Arkansas River has thousands of acres of salt flats with unique hourglass-shaped selenite crystals. Grassland and grazing permeate the Sooner State, which is the second largest cattle producer in the country. Oil, natural gas, and coal have long played a key role in Oklahoma’s economy and energy industry, whereas wind farms in western Oklahoma are a more recent addition. The Landsat series of Earth observation satellites has allowed analysts to search for oil in Oklahoma from hundreds of miles above the Earth. The satellite program also helps Oklahoma’s agriculture industry keep an eye on the condition of crops and grazing land. Here are just a few ways Landsat has benefited Oklahoma.

Oklahoma

Preliminary analysis of Greater Sage-grouse reproduction in the Virginia Mountains of northwestern Nevada

Relationships between habitat selection and population vital rates of greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus; hereafter sage-grouse), recently designated as a candidate species under the Endangered Species Act, within the Great Basin are not well-understood. The growing development of renewable energy infrastructure within areas inhabited by sage-grouse is thought to influence predator and vegetation communities. For example, common ravens (Corvus corax), a synanthropic sage-grouse nest predator, are increasing range-wide and select transmission lines and other tall structures for nesting and perching. In the Virginia Mountains of northwestern Nevada, we collected preliminary information of space-use, habitat selection, and population vital rates during the nesting and brood-rearing period over two years on 56 sage-grouse. Additionally, videography at nest sites (n = 22) was used to identify sage-grouse nest predators. The study area is a potential site for renewable energy developments (i.e., wind and solar), and we plan to continue monitoring this population using a before-after-control-impact study design. The results reported here are preliminary and further data are required before conclusions can be drawn from this population of sage-grouse.

Nevada

Holocene core logs and site methods for modern reef and head-coral cores - Dry Tortugas National Park, Florida

The Dry Tortugas are a series of islands, banks, and channels on a carbonate platform off the west end of the Florida Keys. Antecedent topography of the Dry Tortugas reflects carbonate accumulations of the last interglacial (marine isotope substage 5e, ~ 125,000 years ago, ka) when sea level was ~ 6 to 7 meters (m) higher than present (Schrag and others, 2002). The substage 5e surface was subsequently lithified and modified during subaerial exposure associated with lower sea level from ~ 120 ka to 8 ka. The lithified late Pleistocene carbonates are known as the Key Largo Limestone, a coral reef (Hoffmeister and Multer, 1964; Multer and others, 2002), and the Miami Limestone, a tidal-bar oolite (Sanford, 1909; Hoffmeister, 1974). The Holocene and modern sediments and reefs of the Dry Tortugas then accreted during the rise of sea level associated with the end of the last glacial and the start of the current interglacial (marine isotope Stage 1). With the exception of a half dozen or so islands, the Dry Tortugas region has been submerged for approximately 8,000 years, allowing conditions suitable for coral reef formation once again. The Holocene reef accumulation varies in thickness due to the antecedent topography. The reefs are composed of massive head corals such as species of Montastraea, Siderastrea, and Diploria (Swart and others, 1996; Cohen and McConnaughey, 2003) and rest atop the Pleistocene Key Largo Limestone high (Shinn and others, 1977). The coral reefs within the Dry Tortugas represent a windward reef margin relative to dominant wind and wave energies (Hine and Mullins, 1983; Mallinson and others, 1997; Mallinson and others, 2003).

Florida

GenEst user guide—Software for a generalized estimator of mortality

GenEst (Generalized Estimator) is a software tool for estimating the total number of individuals arriving in an area during a specific time period when their detection probability is unknown but estimable. Its development was motivated by the need to accurately estimate the total number of bird and bat fatalities occurring at wind and solar energy facilities, but it is applicable in a variety of other contexts as well. Simple counts of carcasses are not an accurate measure of the true number of fatalities because some carcasses are inevitably missed in carcass searches. Furthermore, simple carcass counts do not allow comparison among locations or years because carcasses may be detected at different rates. This software uses data collected during carcass searches and estimates of detection rates to accurately estimate the number of fatalities and to provide a measure of precision associated with the estimate. These estimates are fundamental to understanding acute and cumulative effects of renewable energy development on wildlife populations. The software package is available with a user-friendly graphic interface as well as a flexible and powerful command-line implementation. GenEst includes tools for estimating searcher efficiency, carcass persistence, and other detection probability parameters from experimental field trials. Included in the software are example datasets for analyses, standard R package help files, this user guide, and vignettes detailing use at the command-line.

Techniques and Methods

Impacts of ocean-atmosphere teleconnection patterns on the south-central United States

Recent research has linked the climate variability associated with ocean-atmosphere teleconnections to impacts rippling throughout environmental, economic, and social systems. This research reviews recent literature through 2021 in which we identify linkages among the major modes of climate variability, in the form of ocean-atmosphere teleconnections, and the impacts to temperature and precipitation of the South-Central United States (SCUSA), consisting of Arkansas, Louisiana, New Mexico, Oklahoma, and Texas. The SCUSA is an important areal focus for this analysis because it straddles the ecotone between humid and arid climates in the United States and has a growing population, diverse ecosystems, robust agricultural and other economic sectors including the potential for substantial wind and solar energy generation. Whereas a need exists to understand atmospheric variability due to the cascading impacts through ecological and social systems, our understanding is complicated by the positioning of the SCUSA between subtropical and extratropical circulation features and the influence of the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans, and the adjacent Gulf of Mexico. The Southern Oscillation (SO), Pacific-North American (PNA) pattern, North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the related Arctic Oscillation (AO), Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation/Atlantic Multidecadal Variability (AMO/AMV), and Pacific Decadal Oscillation/Pacific Decadal Variability (PDO/PDV) have been shown to be important modulators of temperature and precipitation variables at the monthly, seasonal, and interannual scales, and the intraseasonal Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) in the SCUSA. By reviewing these teleconnection impacts in the region alongside updated seasonal correlation maps, this research provides more accessible and comparable results for interdisciplinary use on climate impacts beyond the atmospheric-environmental sciences.

Arkansas, Louisiana, New Mexico, Oklahoma, Texas

Joint spatiotemporal models to predict seabird densities at sea

Introduction: Seabirds are abundant, conspicuous members of marine ecosystems worldwide. Synthesis of distribution data compiled over time is required to address regional management issues and understand ecosystem change. Major challenges when estimating seabird densities at sea arise from variability in dispersion of the birds, sampling effort over time and space, and differences in bird detection rates associated with survey vessel type. Methods: Using a novel approach for modeling seabirds at sea, we applied joint dynamic species distribution models (JDSDM) with a vector-autoregressive spatiotemporal framework to survey data collected over nearly five decades and archived in the North Pacific Pelagic Seabird Database. We produced monthly gridded density predictions and abundance estimates for 8 species groups (77% of all birds observed) within Cook Inlet, Alaska. JDSDMs included habitat covariates to inform density predictions in unsampled areas and accounted for changes in observed densities due to differing survey methods and decadal-scale variation in ocean conditions. Results: The best fit model provided a high level of explanatory power (86% of deviance explained). Abundance estimates were reasonably precise, and consistent with limited historical studies. Modeled densities identified seasonal variability in abundance with peak numbers of all species groups in July or August. Seabirds were largely absent from the study region in either fall (e.g., murrelets) or spring (e.g., puffins) months, or both periods (shearwaters). Discussion: Our results indicated that pelagic shearwaters ( Ardenna spp.) and tufted puffin ( Fratercula cirrhata ) have declined over the past four decades and these taxa warrant further investigation into underlying mechanisms explaining these trends. JDSDMs provide a useful tool to estimate seabird distribution and seasonal trends that will facilitate risk assessments and planning in areas affected by human activities such as oil and gas development, shipping, and offshore wind and renewable energy.

Alaska

Coldwater fish in large standing waters

Large coldwater lakes are defined here as standing freshwater bodies with surface area greater than 200 ha that support coldwater fishes such as trouts and salmons throughout the year. These large water bodies can be exposed to extensive wind fetch, which will affect the timing, mobility, and safety of personnel and gear. These considerations become important constraints for deploying, locating, and retrieving sampling gear. Wind and wave energy affect the timing, duration, and stability of thermal stratification, and they can create transient upwellings, thermal fronts, seiches, and other internal waves that affect vertical and horizontal thermal structure and dissolved oxygen availability. Thermal stratification affects seasonal distribution and productivity patterns for most aquatic organisms. When waters are destratified, movements and distributions of fishes can vary considerably, particularly during thermocline formation in spring and destratification during autumn. During thermal stratification, species with similar thermal responses tend to concentrate more predictably within certain depth-temperature strata, and segregate from species with different thermal responses. In mesotrophic and eutrophic lakes, hypoxia below the thermocline (sometimes encroaching into the thermocline) forces coldwater fishes into shallower, warmer depths than they would otherwise inhabit. Seasonal and diel changes in light and turbidity conditions affect the activity levels, behaviors, and distributions of fishes (e.g., schooling, diel vertical or horizontal migrations, refuge-seeking) and influence their ability to detect and evade certain types of sampling gear, such as gill nets and trawls. Major tributaries and outlets can form habitat conditions that differ considerably from the rest of the littoral zone. Tributary mouths form shallow sand-silt deltas with perceptible flow-through channels and groundwater inflows. Localized thermal pockets can develop if the temperature from incoming surface plumes or groundwater differs substantially from the lake water. Inlets are also point sources for recruitment and for delivering turbidity or prey generated from stream, riparian, or terrestrial sources. Because these habitat features tend to attract fishes, inlets and outlets should generally be considered distinct strata in a lake sampling program.

Book chapter

Ecological influence and pathways of land use in sagebrush

Land use in sagebrush (Artemisia spp.) landscapes influences all sage-grouse (Centrocer-cus spp.) populations in western North America. Croplands and the network of irrigation canals cover 230,000 km2 and indirectly influence up to 77% of the Sage-Grouse Conservation Area and 73% of sagebrush land cover by subsidizing synanthropic predators on sage-grouse. Urbanization and the demands of human population growth have created an extensive network of con-necting infrastructure that is expanding its influence on sagebrush landscapes. Over 2,500 km 2 are now covered by interstate highways and paved roads; when secondary roads are included, 15% of the Sage-Grouse Conservation Area and 5% of existing sagebrush habitats are 2.5 km from roads. Density of secondary roads often exceeds 5 km/km 2 , resulting in widespread motorized access for recreation, creating extensive travel corridors for management actions and resource development, subsidizing predators adapted to human presence, and facilitating spread of exotic or invasive plants. Sagebrush lands also are being used for their wilderness and recreation values, including off highway vehicle use. Approximately 12,000,000 animal use months (AUM amount of forage to support one livestock unit per month) are permitted for grazing livestock on public lands in the western states. Direct effects of grazing on sage-grouse populations or sagebrush landscapes are not possible to assess from current data. However, management of lands grazed by livestock has influenced sagebrush ecosystems by vegetation treatments to increase forage and reduce sagebrush and other plant species unpalatable to livestock. Fences (2 km/km 2 in some regions), roads, and water developments to manage livestock movements further modify the landscape. Oil and gas development influences 8% of the sagebrush habitats with the highest intensities occurring in the eastern range of sage-grouse; 20% of the sagebrush distribution is indirectly influenced in the Great Plains, Wyoming Basin, and Colorado Plateau SMZs. Energy development physically removes habitat to construct well pads, roads, power lines, and pipelines; indirect effects include habitat fragmentation, soil disturbance, and facilitation of exotic plant and animal spread. More recent development of alternative energy, such as wind and geothermal, creates infrastructure in new regions of the sage-grouse distribution. Land use will continue to be a dominant stressor on sage-brush systems; its individual and cumulative effects will challenge long-term conservation of sage-grouse populations.

Book chapter

Using geostatistical methods to estimate snow water equivalence distribution in a mountain watershed

Knowledge of the spatial distribution of snow water equivalence (SWE) is necessary to adequately forecast the volume and timing of snowmelt runoff. In April 1997, peak accumulation snow depth and density measurements were independently taken in the Loch Vale watershed (6.6 km 2 ), Rocky Mountain National Park, Colorado. Geostatistics and classical statistics were used to estimate SWE distribution across the watershed. Snow depths were spatially distributed across the watershed through kriging interpolation methods which provide unbiased estimates that have minimum variances. Snow densities were spatially modeled through regression analysis. Combining the modeled depth and density with snow-covered area (SCA produced an estimate of the spatial distribution of SWE. The kriged estimates of snow depth explained 37-68% of the observed variance in the measured depths. Steep slopes, variably strong winds, and complex energy balance in the watershed contribute to a large degree of heterogeneity in snow depth.

Conference Paper

Eagle fatalities are reduced by automated curtailment of wind turbines

Collision‐caused fatalities of animals at wind power facilities create a ‘green versus green’ conflict between wildlife conservation and renewable energy. These fatalities can be mitigated via informed curtailment whereby turbines are slowed or stopped when wildlife are considered at increased risk of collision. Automated monitoring systems could improve efficacy of informed curtailment, yet such technology is undertested. We test the efficacy of an automated curtailment system—a camera system that detects flying objects, classifies them and decides whether to curtail individual turbines to avoid potential collision—in reducing counts of fatalities of eagles, at Top of the World Windpower Facility (hereafter, the treatment site) in Wyoming, USA. We perform a before–after–control–impact study, comparing the number of eagle fatalities observed at the treatment site with those at a nearby (15 km) control site without automated curtailment, both before and after the implementation of automated curtailment at the treatment site. After correcting for carcass detection probability and scaling fatality estimates to turbine‐years, we estimate that the number of fatalities at the treatment site declined by 63% (95% CI = 59%–66%) between before and after periods while increasing at the control site by 113% (51%–218%). In total, there was an 82% (75%–89%) reduction in the fatality rate at the treatment site relative to the control site. Synthesis and applications . Automated curtailment of wind turbine operation substantially reduced eagle fatalities. This technology therefore has the potential to lessen the conflict between wind energy and raptor conservation. Although automated curtailment reduced fatalities, they were not fully eliminated. Therefore, automated curtailment, as implemented here, is not a panacea and its efficacy could be improved if considered in conjunction with other mitigation actions.

Wyoming