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We review and comment upon some themes in the recent stream of critical commentary on the assertion that “stationarity is dead,” attempting to clear up some misunderstandings; to note points of agreement; to elaborate on matters in dispute; and to share further relevant thoughts.
Measuring vertically nested temperatures at the streambed interface poses practical challenges that are addressed here with a new discrete subsurface temperature profiling probe. We describe a new temperature probe and its application for heat as a tracer investigations to demonstrate the probe's utility. Accuracy and response time of temperature measurements made at 6 discrete depths in the probe were analyzed in the laboratory using temperature bath experiments. We find the temperature probe to be an accurate and robust instrument that allows for easily installation and long-term monitoring in highly variable environments. Because the probe is inexpensive and versatile, it is useful for many environmental applications that require temperature data collection for periods of several months in environments that are difficult to access or require minimal disturbance.
Previously regarded as the passive drains of watersheds, over the past 50 years, rivers have progressively been recognized as being actively connected with off-channel environments. These connections prolong physical storage and enhance reactive processing to alter water chemistry and downstream transport of materials and energy. Here we propose river corridor science as a concept that integrates downstream transport with lateral and vertical exchange across interfaces. Thus, the river corridor, rather than the wetted river channel itself, is an increasingly common unit of study. Main channel exchange with recirculating marginal waters, hyporheic exchange, bank storage, and overbank flow onto floodplains are all included under a broad continuum of interactions known as “hydrologic exchange flows.” Hydrologists, geomorphologists, geochemists, and aquatic and terrestrial ecologists are cooperating in studies that reveal the dynamic interactions among hydrologic exchange flows and consequences for water quality improvement, modulation of river metabolism, habitat provision for vegetation, fish, and wildlife, and other valued ecosystem services. The need for better integration of science and management is keenly felt, from testing effectiveness of stream restoration and riparian buffers all the way to reevaluating the definition of the waters of the United States to clarify the regulatory authority under the Clean Water Act. A major challenge for scientists is linking the small-scale physical drivers with their larger-scale fluvial and geomorphic context and ecological consequences. Although the fine scales of field and laboratory studies are best suited to identifying the fundamental physical and biological processes, that understanding must be successfully linked to cumulative effects at watershed to regional and continental scales.
In steep topography, the processes governing variably saturated subsurface hydrologic response and the interparticle stresses leading to shallow landslide initiation are physically linked. However, these processes are usually analyzed separately. Here, we take a combined approach, simultaneously analyzing the influence of topography on both hillslope hydrology and the effective stress fields within the hillslope itself. Clearly, runoff and saturated groundwater flow are dominated by gravity and, ultimately, by topography. Less clear is how landscape morphology influences flows in the vadose zone, where transient fluxes are usually taken to be vertical. We aim to assess and quantify the impact of topography on both saturated and unsaturated hillslope hydrology and its effects on shallow slope stability. Three real hillslope morphologies (concave, convex, and planar) are analyzed using a 3-D, physically based, distributed model coupled with a module for computation of the probability of failure, based on the infinite slope assumption. The results of the analyses, which included parameter uncertainty analysis of the results themselves, show that convex and planar slopes are more stable than concave slopes. Specifically, under the same initial, boundary, and infiltration conditions, the percentage of unstable areas ranges from 1.3% for the planar hillslope, 21% for convex, to a maximum value of 33% for the concave morphology. The results are supported by a sensitivity analysis carried out to examine the effect of initial conditions and rainfall intensity.
We describe a new approach that couples hydrograph separation with high-frequency nitrate data to quantify time-variable groundwater and runoff loading of nitrate to streams, and the net in-stream fate of nitrate at the watershed-scale. The approach was applied at three sites spanning gradients in watershed size and land use in the Chesapeake Bay watershed. Results indicate that 58-73% of the annual nitrate load to the streams was groundwater-discharged nitrate. Average annual first order nitrate loss rate constants (k) were similar to those reported in both modelling and in-stream process-based studies, and were greater at the small streams (0.06 and 0.22 d -1 ) than at the large river (0.05 d -1 ), but 11% of the annual loads were retained/lost in the small streams, compared with 23% in the large river. Larger streambed area to water volume ratios in small streams result in greater loss rates, but shorter residence times in small streams result in a smaller fraction of nitrate loads being removed than in larger streams. A seasonal evaluation of k values suggests that nitrate was retained/lost at varying rates during the growing season. Consistent with previous studies, streamflow and nitrate concentration were inversely related to k. This new approach for interpreting high-frequency nitrate data and the associated findings furthers our ability to understand, predict, and mitigate nitrate impacts on streams and receiving waters by providing insights into temporal nitrate dynamics that would be difficult to obtain using traditional field-based studies.
Shallow aquifers are an important source of water resources and provide base flow to streams; yet actual rates of groundwater recharge are difficult to estimate. While climate change is predicted to increase the frequency and magnitude of extreme precipitation events, the resulting impact on groundwater recharge remains poorly understood. We quantify empirical relations between precipitation characteristics and episodic groundwater recharge for a wide variety of geographic and land use types across North Carolina. We extract storm duration, magnitude, average rate, and hourly weighted intensity from long-term precipitation records over periods of 12–35 years at 10 locations. Using time series of water table fluctuations from nearby monitoring wells, we estimate relative recharge to precipitation ratios (RPR) to identify statistical trends. Increased RPR correlates with increased storm duration, whereas RPR decreases with increasing magnitude, average rate, and intensity of precipitation. Agricultural and urban areas exhibit the greatest decrease in RPR due to increasing storm magnitude, average rate, and intensity, while naturally vegetated areas exhibit a larger increase in RPR with increased storm duration. Though RPR is generally higher during the winter than the summer, this seasonal effect is magnified in the Appalachian and Piedmont regions. These statistical trends provide valuable insights into the likely consequences of climate and land use change for water resources in subtropical climates. If, as predicted, growing seasons lengthen and the intensity of storms increases with a warming climate, decreased recharge in Appalachia, the Piedmont, and rapidly growing urban areas of the American Southeast could further limit groundwater availability.
The Colorado River has been identified as the most overallocated river in the world. Considering predicted future imbalances between water supply and demand and the growing recognition that base flow (a proxy for groundwater discharge to streams) is critical for sustaining flow in streams and rivers, there is a need to develop methods to better quantify present-day base flow across large regions. We adapted and applied the spatially referenced regression on watershed attributes (SPARROW) water quality model to assess the spatial distribution of base flow, the fraction of streamflow supported by base flow, and estimates of and potential processes contributing to the amount of base flow that is lost during in-stream transport in the Upper Colorado River Basin (UCRB). On average, 56% of the streamflow in the UCRB originated as base flow, and precipitation was identified as the dominant driver of spatial variability in base flow at the scale of the UCRB, with the majority of base flow discharge to streams occurring in upper elevation watersheds. The model estimates an average of 1.8 × 10 10 m 3 /yr of base flow in the UCRB; greater than 80% of which is lost during in-stream transport to the Lower Colorado River Basin via processes including evapotranspiration and water diversion for irrigation. Our results indicate that surface waters in the Colorado River Basin are dependent on base flow, and that management approaches that consider groundwater and surface water as a joint resource will be needed to effectively manage current and future water resources in the Basin.
Recent climate change has reduced the spatial extent and thickness of permafrost in many discontinuous permafrost regions. Rapid permafrost thaw is producing distinct landscape changes in the Taiga Plains of the Northwest Territories, Canada. As permafrost bodies underlying forested peat plateaus shrink, the landscape slowly transitions into unforested wetlands. The expansion of wetlands has enhanced the hydrologic connectivity of many watersheds via new surface and near-surface flow paths, and increased streamflow has been observed. Furthermore, the decrease in forested peat plateaus results in a net loss of boreal forest and associated ecosystems. This study investigates fundamental processes that contribute to permafrost thaw by comparing observed and simulated thaw development and landscape transition of a peat plateau-wetland complex in the Northwest Territories, Canada from 1970 to 2012. Measured climate data are first used to drive surface energy balance simulations for the wetland and peat plateau. Near-surface soil temperatures simulated in the surface energy balance model are then applied as the upper boundary condition to a three-dimensional model of subsurface water flow and coupled energy transport with freeze-thaw. Simulation results demonstrate that lateral heat transfer, which is not considered in many permafrost models, can influence permafrost thaw rates. Furthermore, the simulations indicate that landscape evolution arising from permafrost thaw acts as a positive feedback mechanism that increases the energy absorbed at the land surface and produces additional permafrost thaw. The modeling results also demonstrate that flow rates in local groundwater flow systems may be enhanced by the degradation of isolated permafrost bodies.
Use of GRACE (Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment) satellites for assessing global water resources is rapidly expanding. Here we advance application of GRACE satellites by reconstructing long-term total water storage (TWS) changes from ground-based monitoring and modeling data. We applied the approach to the Colorado River Basin which has experienced multiyear intense droughts at decadal intervals. Estimated TWS declined by 94 km 3 during 1986–1990 and by 102 km 3 during 1998–2004, similar to the TWS depletion recorded by GRACE (47 km 3 ) during 2010–2013. Our analysis indicates that TWS depletion is dominated by reductions in surface reservoir and soil moisture storage in the upper Colorado basin with additional reductions in groundwater storage in the lower basin. Groundwater storage changes are controlled mostly by natural responses to wet and dry cycles and irrigation pumping outside of Colorado River delivery zones based on ground-based water level and gravity data. Water storage changes are controlled primarily by variable water inputs in response to wet and dry cycles rather than increasing water use. Surface reservoir storage buffers supply variability with current reservoir storage representing ∼2.5 years of available water use. This study can be used as a template showing how to extend short-term GRACE TWS records and using all available data on storage components of TWS to interpret GRACE data, especially within the context of droughts.
Debris flows are a typical hazard on steep slopes after wildfire, but unlike debris flows that mobilize from landslides, most post-wildfire debris flows are generated from water runoff. The majority of existing debris-flow modeling has focused on landslide-triggered debris flows. In this study we explore the potential for using process-based rainfall-runoff models to simulate the timing of water flow and runoff-generated debris flows in recently burned areas. Two different spatially distributed hydrologic models with differing levels of complexity were used: the full shallow water equations and the kinematic wave approximation. Model parameter values were calibrated in two different watersheds, spanning two orders of magnitude in drainage area. These watersheds were affected by the 2009 Station Fire in the San Gabriel Mountains, CA, USA. Input data for the numerical models were constrained by time series of soil moisture, flow stage, and rainfall collected at field sites, as well as high-resolution lidar-derived digital elevation models. The calibrated parameters were used to model a third watershed in the burn area, and the results show a good match with observed timing of flow peaks. The calibrated roughness parameter (Manning's $n$) was generally higher when using the kinematic wave approximation relative to the shallow water equations, and decreased with increasing spatial scale. The calibrated effective watershed hydraulic conductivity was low for both models, even for storms occurring several months after the fire, suggesting that wildfire-induced changes to soil-water infiltration were retained throughout that time. Overall the two model simulations were quite similar suggesting that a kinematic wave model, which is simpler and more computationally efficient, is a suitable approach for predicting flood and debris flow timing in steep, burned watersheds.
A one-dimensional (1-D) analytic solution is developed for heat transport through an aquifer system where the vertical temperature profile in the aquifer is nearly uniform. The general anisotropic form of the viscous heat generation term is developed for use in groundwater flow simulations. The 1-D solution is extended to more complex geometries by solving the equation for piece-wise linear or uniform properties and boundary conditions. A moderately complex example, the Eastern Snake River Plain (ESRP), is analyzed to demonstrate the use of the analytic solution for identifying important physical processes. For example, it is shown that viscous heating is variably important and that heat conduction to the land surface is a primary control on the distribution of aquifer and spring temperatures. Use of published values for all aquifer and thermal properties results in a reasonable match between simulated and measured groundwater temperatures over most of the 300 km length of the ESRP, except for geothermal heat flow into the base of the aquifer within 20 km of the Yellowstone hotspot. Previous basal heat flow measurements (∼110 mW/m 2 ) made beneath the ESRP aquifer were collected at distances of >50 km from the Yellowstone Plateau, but a higher basal heat flow of 150 mW/m 2 is required to match groundwater temperatures near the Plateau. The ESRP example demonstrates how the new tool can be used during preliminary analysis of a groundwater system, allowing efficient identification of the important physical processes that must be represented during more-complex 2-D and 3-D simulations of combined groundwater and heat flow.
Zones of strong groundwater upwelling to streams enhance thermal stability and moderate thermal extremes, which is particularly important to aquatic ecosystems in a warming climate. Passive thermal tracer methods used to quantify vertical upwelling rates rely on downward conduction of surface temperature signals. However, moderate to high groundwater flux rates (>−1.5 m d −1 ) restrict downward propagation of diurnal temperature signals, and therefore the applicability of several passive thermal methods. Active streambed heating from within high-resolution fiber-optic temperature sensors (A-HRTS) has the potential to define multidimensional fluid-flux patterns below the extinction depth of surface thermal signals, allowing better quantification and separation of local and regional groundwater discharge. To demonstrate this concept, nine A-HRTS were emplaced vertically into the streambed in a grid with ∼0.40 m lateral spacing at a stream with strong upward vertical flux in Mashpee, Massachusetts, USA. Long-term (8–9 h) heating events were performed to confirm the dominance of vertical flow to the 0.6 m depth, well below the extinction of ambient diurnal signals. To quantify vertical flux, short-term heating events (28 min) were performed at each A-HRTS, and heat-pulse decay over vertical profiles was numerically modeled in radial two dimension (2-D) using SUTRA. Modeled flux values are similar to those obtained with seepage meters, Darcy methods, and analytical modeling of shallow diurnal signals. We also observed repeatable differential heating patterns along the length of vertically oriented sensors that may indicate sediment layering and hyporheic exchange superimposed on regional groundwater discharge.
The 10 day explosive phase of the 2008–2009 eruption of Chaitén volcano, Chile, draped adjacent watersheds with a few cm to >1 m of tephra. Subsequent lava-dome collapses generated pyroclastic flows that delivered additional sediment. During the waning phase of explosive activity, modest rainfall triggered an extraordinary sediment flush which swiftly aggraded multiple channels by many meters. Ten kilometer from the volcano, Chaitén River channel aggraded 7 m and the river avulsed through a coastal town. That aggradation and delta growth below the abandoned and avulsed channels allow estimates of postdisturbance traction-load transport rate. On the basis of preeruption bathymetry and remotely sensed measurements of delta-surface growth, we derived a time series of delta volume. The initial flush from 11 to 14 May 2008 deposited 0.5–1.5 × 10 6 m 3 of sediment at the mouth of Chaitén River. By 26 May, after channel avulsion, a second delta amassed about 2 × 10 6 m 3 of sediment; by late 2011 it amassed about 11 × 10 6 m 3 . Accumulated sediment consists of low-density vesicular pumice and lithic rhyolite sand. Rates of channel aggradation and delta growth, channel width, and an assumed deposit bulk density of 1100–1500 kg m −3 indicate mean traction-load transport rate just before and shortly after avulsion (∼14–15 May) was very high, possibly as great as several tens of kg s −1 m −1 . From October 2008 to December 2011, mean traction-load transport rate declined from about 7 to 0.4 kg −1 m −1 . Despite extraordinary sediment delivery, disturbed channels recovered rapidly (a few years).
The effects of mountain pine beetle (MPB)-induced tree mortality on a headwater hydrologic system were investigated using an integrated physical modeling framework with a high-resolution computational grid. Simulations of MPB-affected and unaffected conditions, each with identical atmospheric forcing for a normal water year, were compared at multiple scales to evaluate the effects of scale on MPB-affected hydrologic systems. Individual locations within the larger model were shown to maintain hillslope-scale processes affecting snowpack dynamics, total evapotranspiration, and soil moisture that are comparable to several field-based studies and previous modeling work. Hillslope-scale analyses also highlight the influence of compensating changes in evapotranspiration and snow processes. Reduced transpiration in the Grey Phase of MPB-induced tree mortality was offset by increased late-summer evaporation, while overall snowpack dynamics were more dependent on elevation effects than MPB-induced tree mortality. At the watershed scale, unaffected areas obscured the magnitude of MPB effects. Annual water yield from the watershed increased during Grey Phase simulations by 11 percent; a difference that would be difficult to diagnose with long-term gage observations that are complicated by inter-annual climate variability. The effects on hydrology observed and simulated at the hillslope scale can be further damped at the watershed scale, which spans more life zones and a broader range of landscape properties. These scaling effects may change under extreme conditions, e.g., increased total MPB-affected area or a water year with above average snowpack.
The Surface Water and Ocean Topography (SWOT) satellite mission planned for launch in 2020 will map river elevations and inundated area globally for rivers >100 m wide. In advance of this launch, we here evaluated the possibility of estimating discharge in ungauged rivers using synthetic, daily ‘‘remote sensing’’ measurements derived from hydraulic models corrupted with minimal observational errors. Five discharge algorithms were evaluated, as well as the median of the five, for 19 rivers spanning a range of hydraulic and geomorphic conditions. Reliance upon a priori information, and thus applicability to truly ungauged reaches, varied among algorithms: one algorithm employed only global limits on velocity and depth, while the other algorithms relied on globally available prior estimates of discharge. We found at least one algorithm able to estimate instantaneous discharge to within 35% relative root-mean-squared error (RRMSE) on 14/16 nonbraided rivers despite out-of-bank flows, multichannel planforms, and backwater effects. Moreover, we found RRMSE was often dominated by bias; the median standard deviation of relative residuals across the 16 nonbraided rivers was only 12.5%. SWOT discharge algorithm progress is therefore encouraging, yet future efforts should consider incorporating ancillary data or multialgorithm synergy to improve results
This study investigated how the resolution of observation influences interpretation of how fish, juvenile Coho Salmon ( Oncorhynchus kisutch ), exploit the hydraulic environment in streams. Our objectives were to evaluate how spatial resolution of the flow field observation influenced: (1) the velocities considered to be representative of habitat units; (2) patterns of use of the hydraulic environment by fish; and (3) estimates of energy expenditure. We addressed these objectives using observations within a 1:1 scale physical model of a full-channel log jam in an outdoor experimental stream. Velocities were measured with Acoustic Doppler Velocimetry at a 10 cm grid spacing, whereas fish locations and tailbeat frequencies were documented over time using underwater videogrammetry. Results highlighted that resolution of observation did impact perceived habitat use and energy expenditure, as did the location of measurement within habitat units and the use of averaging to summarize velocities within a habitat unit. In this experiment, the range of velocities and energy expenditure estimates increased with coarsening resolution (grid spacing from 10 to 100 cm), reducing the likelihood of measuring the velocities locally experienced by fish. In addition, the coarser resolutions contributed to fish appearing to select velocities that were higher than what was measured at finer resolutions. These findings indicate the need for careful attention to and communication of resolution of observation in investigating the hydraulic environment and in determining the habitat needs and bioenergetics of aquatic biota.
Groundwater quality is a concern in alluvial aquifers that underlie agricultural areas, such as in the San Joaquin Valley of California. Shallow domestic wells (less than 150 m deep) in agricultural areas are often contaminated by nitrate. Agricultural and rural nitrate sources include dairy manure, synthetic fertilizers, and septic waste. Knowledge of the relative proportion that each of these sources contributes to nitrate concentration in individual wells can aid future regulatory and land management decisions. We show that nitrogen and oxygen isotopes of nitrate, boron isotopes, and iodine concentrations are a useful, novel combination of groundwater tracers to differentiate between manure, fertilizers, septic waste, and natural sources of nitrate. Furthermore, in this work, we develop a new Bayesian mixing model in which these isotopic and elemental tracers were used to estimate the probability distribution of the fractional contributions of manure, fertilizers, septic waste, and natural sources to the nitrate concentration found in an individual well. The approach was applied to 56 nitrate-impacted private domestic wells located in the San Joaquin Valley. Model analysis found that some domestic wells were clearly dominated by the manure source and suggests evidence for majority contributions from either the septic or fertilizer source for other wells. But, predictions of fractional contributions for septic and fertilizer sources were often of similar magnitude, perhaps because modeled uncertainty about the fraction of each was large. For validation of the Bayesian model, fractional estimates were compared to surrounding land use and estimated source contributions were broadly consistent with nearby land use types.
We simulate the 1950–2010 water balance for the conterminous U.S. (CONUS) with a monthly water balance model (MWBM) using the 800 m Parameter-elevation Regression on Independent Slopes Model (PRISM) data set as model input. We employed observed snow and streamflow data sets to guide modification of the snow and potential evapotranspiration components in the default model and to evaluate model performance. Based on various metrics and sensitivity tests, the modified model yields reasonably good simulations of seasonal snowpack in the West (range of bias of ±50 mm at 68% of 713 SNOTEL sites), the gradients and magnitudes of actual evapotranspiration, and runoff (median correlation of 0.83 and median Nash-Sutcliff efficiency of 0.6 between simulated and observed annual time series at 1427 USGS gage sites). The model generally performs well along the Pacific Coast, the high elevations of the Basin and Range and over the Midwest and East, but not as well over the dry areas of the Southwest and upper Plains regions due, in part, to the apportioning of direct versus delayed runoff. Sensitivity testing and application of the MWBM to simulate the future water balance at four National Parks when driven by 30 climate models from the Climate Model Intercomparison Program Phase 5 (CMIP5) demonstrate that the model is useful for evaluating first-order, climate driven hydrologic change on monthly and annual time scales.