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At least 199 records · Page 11Linked to original sources

Spawning ecology of finespotted Snake River cutthroat trout in spring streams of the Salt River valley, Wyoming

We studied spawning ecology of cutthroat trout (Oncorhynchus clarki) in streams that originate as springs along the Salt River, a Snake River tributary in western Wyoming. We assessed (1) relative numbers of upstream-migrant and resident adults present during the spawning period in spring streams, (2) influence of habitat modification on use of spring streams for spawning, and (3) habitat features used for spawning in spring streams. Four spring streams were studied, 2 with substantial modification to enhance trout habitat and 2 with little or no modification. Modifications consisted primarily of constructing alternating pools and gravel-cobble riffles. Only a small portion of adult fish in spring streams during the spawning period had migrated upstream from the Salt River between March and the middle of June. Larger numbers of adult fish and more redds were observed in the 2 modified streams compared with the 2 streams with little or no modification. Most spawning occurred on constructed riffles with small gravel and over a narrow range of depths and velocities. Cutthroat trout, rainbow trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss), and their hybrids were observed in 1 stream with habitat modifications, indicating that measures to halt invasion by rainbow trout, as well as habitat improvement, are needed to preserve this native trout within the Salt River valley.

Western North American Naturalist

Avian species richness in different-aged stands of riparian forest along the middle Rio Grande, New Mexico

Riparian forests are important for maintaining vertebrate species richness in the southwestern United States, but they have become restricted in distribution due to both historical and current management practices. In order to counteract continued loss of this habitat, several mitigation programs were developed in the middle Rio Grande Valley of New Mexico. Three areas ranging from 50 to 140 ha were revegetated with native trees using pole planting and cattle exclosures, and changes in vegetation structure were quantified after 2, 3, and 5 years of growth. As expected, the older site contained the most heterogeneous mix of plant species and the greatest structural diversity. We compared year-round avian use of the revegetated sites with a mature cottonwood forest site of approximately 30 years of age. As the revegetated sites matured and salient habitat features changed, the population dynamics of individual avian species and patterns of guild structure varied. The older revegetated sites showed a greater similarity to the mature cottonwood site, suggesting that reclamation efforts established quality riparian habitats for birds in as little as 5 years. The revegetated sites appeared especially important for Neotropical-migrant birds. We suggest that a mosaic of riparian woodlands containing mixtures of native tree and shrub species of different size classes is necessary to maintain avian species richness in the middle Rio Grande drainage, and probably throughout the southwestern United States.

New Mexico

Point counts of landbirds in bottomland hardwood forests of the Mississippi Alluvial Valley: How long and how many?

To quantify efficacy of point count sampling in bottomland hardwood forests, we examined the influence of point count duration on corresponding estimates of number of individuals and species recorded. To accomplish this we conducted a totalof 82 point counts 7 May-16 May 1992distributed among three habitats (Wet, Mesic, Dry) in each of three regions within the lower Mississippi Alluvial Valley (MAV). Each point count consisted of recording the number of individual birds (all species) seen or heard during the initial three minutes and per each minute thereafter for a period totaling ten minutes. In addition, we included 384 point counts recorded during an 8-week period in each of 3 years (1985-1987) among 56 randomly-selected forest patches within the bottomlands of western Tennessee. Each point count consisted of recording the number of individuals (excluding migrating species) during each of four, 5 minute intervals for a period totaling 20 minutes. To estimate minimum sample size, we determined sampling variation at each level (region, habitat, and locality) with the 82 point counts from the lower (MAV) and applied the procedures of Neter and Wasserman (1974:493; Applied linear statistical models). Neither the cumulative number of individuals nor number of species per sampling interval attained an asymptote after 10 or 20 minutes of sampling. For western Tennessee bottomlands, total individual and species counts relative to point count duration were similar among years and comparable to the pattern observed throughout the lower MAV. Across the MAV, we recorded a total of 1,62 1 birds distributed among 52 species with the majority (8721/1621) representing 8 species. More birds were recorded within 25-50 m than in either of the other distance categories. There was significant variation in numbers of individuals and species among point counts. For both, significant differences between region and patch (nested within region) occurred; neither habitat nor interaction between habitat and region was significant. For = 0.05 and L3 = 0.10, minimum sample size estimates (per factor level) varied by orders of magnitude depending upon the observed or specified range of desired detectable difference. For observed regional variation, 20 and 40 point counts were required to accommodate variability in total birds (MSE = 9.28) and species (MSE = 3.79), respectively; 25 percent of the mean could be achieved with 5 counts per factor level. Corresponding sample sizes required to detect differences of rarer species (e.g., Wood Thrush) were 500; for common species (e.g., Northern Cardinal) this same level of precision could be achieved with 100 counts.

Book chapter

Breeding birds in managed forests on public conservation lands in the Mississippi Alluvial Valley

Managers of public conservation lands in the Mississippi Alluvial Valley have implemented forest management strategies to improve bottomland hardwood habitat for target wildlife species. Through implementation of various silvicultural practices, forest managers have sought to attain forest structural conditions (e.g., canopy cover, basal area, etc.) within values postulated to benefit wildlife. We evaluated data from point count surveys of breeding birds on 180 silviculturally treated stands (1049 counts) that ranged from 1 to 20 years post-treatment and 134 control stands (676 counts) that had not been harvested for >20 years. Birds detected during 10-min counts were recorded within four distance classes and three time intervals. Avian diversity was greater on treated stands than on unharvested stands. Of 42 commonly detected species, six species including Prothonotary Warbler ( Prothonotaria citrea ) and Acadian Flycatcher ( Empidonax virescens ) were indicative of control stands. Similarly, six species including Indigo Bunting ( Passerina cyanea ) and Yellow-breasted Chat ( Icteria virens ) were indicative of treated stands. Using a removal model to assess probability of detection, we evaluated occupancy of bottomland forests at two spatial scales (stands and points within occupied stands). Wildlife-forestry treatment improved predictive models of species occupancy for 18 species. We found years post treatment (range = 1–20), total basal area, and overstory canopy were important species-specific predictors of occupancy, whereas variability in basal area was not. In addition, we used a removal model to estimate species-specific probability of availability for detection, and a distance model to estimate effective detection radius. We used these two estimated parameters to derive species densities and 95% confidence intervals for treated and unharvested stands. Avian densities differed between treated and control stands for 16 species, but only Common Yellowthroat ( Geothlypis trichas ) and Yellow-breasted Chat had greater densities on treated stands.

Mississippi Alluvial Valley

Comparison of two detection methods of a declining rodent, the Allegheny woodrat, in Virginia

Allegheny woodrats Neotoma magister are an imperiled small mammal species most associated with emergent rock habitats in the central Appalachian Mountains and the Ohio River Valley. The monitoring of populations and their spatiotemporal distributions typically has relied on labor-intensive livetrapping. The use of remote-detecting cameras holds promise for being an equally or more effective method to determine species presence, although trap-based captures permit the estimation of other parameters (e.g., survival, population size, site fidelity). In 2017, 2018, and 2020 we compared standard livetrapping with paired cameras for determining site occupancy of Allegheny woodrats in the central Appalachian Mountains of western Virginia. We further examined the influence of baited vs. unbaited cameras at several sites of confirmed occupancy in 2019. We observed that the detection probability using cameras was approximately 1.7 times that of live traps. Also, detection probability at baited camera traps was 1.3–2.0 times that of unbaited camera traps. Estimates of occupancy ranged from 0.44 to 0.49. Our findings suggest that the use of baited remote-detecting cameras provides a more effective method than livetrapping for detecting Allegheny woodrats. Our study provides a framework for the development of a large-scale, long-term monitoring protocol of Allegheny woodrats with the goals of identifying changes in the distribution of the species and quantifying local extinction and colonization rates at emergent rock outcrops and caves throughout the species' known distribution.

Virginia

Mississippi Alluvial Valley

Available data are summarized according to the following major topics: (1) characteristics of the Mississippi Alluvial Valley (MAV); (2) waterfowl populations associated with the MAV; (3) habitat requirements of migrating and wintering waterfowl in the MAV; (4) current habitat management practices in the MAV, including croplands, moist-soil impoundments, and forested wetlands; (5) status and classification of winter habitat in the MAV; and (6) research and management information needs.

Arkansas, Illinois, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississip

Effects of drought and fire on bird communities of the Kofa National Wildlife Refuge, Arizona

Executive Summary The U.S. Government created the Kofa National Wildlife Refuge (Kofa NWR) in 1939 in response to a citizen campaign to improve desert bighorn sheep populations in Arizona. The Kofa NWR is mountainous and remote, and its management by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (FWS) keeps anthropogenic disturbance levels low. As such, Partners In Flight (PIF) listed the Kofa NWR as one of its Sonoran Desert portfolio sites in its Desert Bird Conservation Plan (McCreedy and others, 2009). Research presented here demonstrates that bird communities within a well-managed and remote Sonoran Desert portfolio site can nonetheless be negatively affected by human-caused stressors like fire and Brown-headed Cowbird ( Molothrus ater ) parasitism, which originate from beyond the Kofa NWR’s boundaries. In chapter 1, we examine how avian productivity can be influenced by timing of nest initiation. We demonstrate that (1) late nesting dates are correlated with low winter precipitation levels, a condition expected to occur in greater frequency in coming decades due to climate change (Seager and others, 2007) and that (2) late nesting dates result in decreased productivity, due to higher rates of nest depredation and, in the case of an open-cup nesting species, higher rates of brood parasitism experienced later in the breeding season. The brood parasite, the Brown-headed Cowbird, appears to forage and roost on agricultural lands north of the Kofa NWR’s boundary. From that location, they commute to the refuge to parasitize other passerine bird nests. Drought and subsequent loss in primary production have been correlated with decreased productivity for birds that breed in arid habitats (Preston and Rotenberry, 2006; Chase and others, 2005; Johnson and others, 2002; Morrison and Bolger, 2002; Brown and Li, 1996; Anderson and Anderson, 1973), yet drought’s standing as a threat to bird populations has been underestimated in recent regional conservation planning efforts (McCreedy and others, 2009; Latta and others, 1999). In chapter 2, we examine the effects of the King Valley fire on breeding and migrant birds within the Kofa NWR. This fire was caused by incendiary weapons testing within Yuma Proving Ground, south of the Kofa NWRboundary (Esque and others, 2013). We found large differences in spring migrant and breeding species abundance and richness between bird count stations within the 2005 King Valley fire zone and bird count stations immediately outside the fire perimeter. Habitat loss to fire, and the subsequent slow regeneration of a Sonoran Desert flora that is not well adapted to fire disturbance, is a recognized threat to bird populations (McCreedy and others, 2009; Latta, 1999), and of all Sonoran Desert wildlife, birds may be the most impacted by loss of perennial Sonoran Desert vegetation to fire (Esque and Schwalbe, 2002). We conclude that decreases in both breeding and migrant use of washes within burned areas will likely persist into the long term (>25 years) due to slow return rates of xeroriparian woodlands lost in the fire.

Arizona

Estimating spatial–temporal differences in Chinook salmon outmigration survival with habitat- and predation-related covariates

Low survival rates of Chinook salmon ( Oncorhynchus tshawytscha ) smolts in California’s Central Valley have been attributed to multiple biological and physical factors, but it is not clear which factors have the largest impact. We used 5 years of acoustic telemetry data for 1709 late-fall Chinook salmon smolts to evaluate the effect of habitat- and predation-related covariates on outmigration survival through the Sacramento River. Using a Cormack–Jolly–Seber mark–recapture model, we estimated survival rates both as a function of covariates (covariate model) and as a function of river location and release year (spatial–temporal model). Our covariate model was overwhelmingly supported as the preferred model based on model selection criteria, suggesting the covariates adequately replicated spatial and temporal patterns in smolt survival. The covariates in the selected model included individual fish covariates, habitat-specific covariates, and temporally variable physical conditions. The most important covariate affecting salmon survival was flow. We describe the importance of these parameters in the context of juvenile salmon predation risk and suggest that additional research on predator distribution and density could improve model estimates.

California

Moisture abundance and proximity mediate seasonal use of mesic areas and survival of greater sage-grouse broods

Water is a critical and limited resource, particularly in the arid West, but water availability is projected to decline even while demand increases due to growing human populations and increases in duration and severity of drought. Mesic areas provide important water resources for numerous wildlife species, including the greater sage-grouse ( Centrocercus urophasianus ; hereafter, sage-grouse), an indicator for the health of sagebrush ecosystems. Understanding how wildlife use these crucial areas is necessary to inform management and conservation of sensitive species. Specifically, the influence of anthropogenic water subsidies such as irrigated pastures is not well-studied. We evaluated brood-rearing habitat selection and brood survival of sage-grouse in Long Valley, California, an area where the water rights are primarily owned by the city of Los Angeles and water is used locally to irrigate for livestock. This area thus represents a unique balance between the needs of wildlife and people that could increasingly define future water management. In this study, sage-grouse broods moved closer to the edge of mesic areas and used more interior areas during the late brood-rearing period, selecting for greener areas after 1 July. Mesic areas were particularly important during dry years, with broods using areas farther interior than in wet years. Brood survival was also positively influenced by the availability and condition of mesic resources, as indicated by variation in values of normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), with survival peaking at moderate values of NDVI and just outside the edge but decreasing inside the mesic areas. Our results highlight the importance of quality edge habitat of large mesic areas for sage-grouse to balance habitat selection and survival, particularly during drier years and during the late brood-rearing period, which is a critical period because chick survival has been shown to influence population growth. This study highlights the implications of large-scale anthropogenic water manipulation, and the balance between local irrigation and water distribution to benefit other regions, from the context of a species of high conservation concern in North American sagebrush ecosystems.

California

Ghost of habitat past: historic habitat affects the contemporary distribution of giant garter snakes in a modified landscape.

Historic habitat conditions can affect contemporary communities and populations, but most studies of historic habitat are based on the reduction in habitat extent or connectivity. Little is known about the effects of historic habitat on contemporary species distributions when historic habitat has been nearly completely removed, but species persist in a highly altered landscape. More than 93% of the historic wetlands in the Central Valley of California, USA, have been drained and converted to agricultural and other uses, but agricultural wetlands, such as rice and its supporting infrastructure of canals, allow some species to persist. Little is known about the distribution of giant garter snakes Thamnophis gigas , a rare aquatic snake species inhabiting this predominantly agricultural landscape, or the variables that affect where this species occurs. We used occupancy modeling to examine the distribution of giant garter snakes at the landscape scale in the Sacramento Valley (northern portion of the Central Valley) of California, with an emphasis on the relative strength of historic and contemporary variables (landscape-scale habitat, local microhabitat, vegetation composition and relative prey counts) for predicting giant garter snake occurrence. Proximity to historic marsh best explained variation in the probability of occurrence of giant garter snakes at the landscape scale, with greater probability of occurrence near historic marsh. We suspect that the importance of distance to historic marsh represents dispersal limitations of giant garter snakes. These results suggest that preserving and restoring areas near historic marsh, and minimizing activities that reduce the extent of marsh or marsh-like (e.g. rice agriculture, canal) habitats near historic marsh may be advantageous to giant garter snakes.

Animal Conservation

Between hot rocks and dry places: The status of the Dixie Valley toad

In Dixie Valley, Nevada, an isolated population of toads has been the subject of proactive conservation measures by the Nevada Department of Wildlife and the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service since 2008 due to concerns about potential habitat degradation resulting from exploitation of nearby geothermal energy resources. These toads appear to belong within the Anaxyrus boreas species group but are commonly referred to as Dixie Valley toads (DVTs). The DVT is currently confined to an extremely narrow habitat range (370 ha) that is geographically isolated from any other A. boreas population. In this study, genetic variations in mitochondrial genes and 11 microsatellite loci were used to assess the affinities of DVTs in relation to members of the A. boreas species group. We compared results from DVTs with previously published data spanning much of the range of A. boreas in the United States and new data from a nearby toad population within Dixie Valley. Data from both mitochondrial DNA and microsatellites placed DVTs inside the A. boreas species group. In particular, DVTs fell into a cluster of A. boreas from Washington and California, along with other species from the A. boreas species group, namely A. nelsoni, A. canorus, and A. exsul. Genetic differentiation of DVTs was lowest between A. boreas populations in Washington and California. However, allele frequencies were significantly different between DVTs and all other populations, including a nearby locality within Dixie Valley. This genetic differentiation, along with the DVT's geographical isolation and restricted habitat, warrants recognition of the DVT as a distinct management unit.

Nevada

Review of the life history and conservation of federally endangered plant species of the Lower Rio Grande Valley, Texas, U.S.A.

This review aims to summarize information critical to the conservation of the federally listed endangered species of South Texas, which occur along the border of Texas and Mexico. This paper describes the characteristics, habitat, population status, distribution, life history, threats, and restoration of endangered plant species of the Lower Rio Grande Valley, Texas, which includes Cameron, Willacy, Hildago, and Starr County. Seven federally listed species are considered including Ambrosia cheiranthifolia, Asclepias prostrata, Astrophytum asterias, Ayenia limitaris, Manihot walkerae, Lesquerella thamnophila (syn. Physaria thamnophila), and Thymophylla tephroleuca. An eighth species, Physostegia correllii is under consideration for federal listing by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service. This paper assembles information on the background, biological status, major threats, and conservation to aid managers and the scientific community in restoring and managing these species.

Texas

Quantifying drought’s influence on moist soil seed vegetation in California’s Central Valley through remote sensing

Across the Central Valley of California, millions of wintering waterfowl rely on moist soil seed (MSS) plants that grow in managed seasonal wetlands as a critical source of food. Estimates of MSS plant production are used to set waterfowl habitat targets yet this information is not well known. We created the first Central Valley-wide time series maps of MSS plant distributions and productivity. We found that MSS plant seed yield declined in critical drought years, which corresponded with reduced water delivery to managed wetlands. Our results provide improved food resource estimates and information to help managers prioritize actions as water supply becomes more uncertain with climate change.

California

Effects of natural-channel-design restoration on habitat quality in Catskill Mountain streams, New York

Stream restoration has received much attention in recent years, yet there has been little effort to evaluate its impacts on physical habitat, stability, and biota. A popular but controversial stream restoration approach is natural channel design (NCD), which cannot be adequately evaluated without a long-term, independent assessment of its effects on stream habitat. Six reaches of five Catskill Mountain streams in southeastern New York were restored during 2000–2003 following NCD techniques to decrease bed and bank degradation, decrease sediment loads, and improve water quality. Habitat surveys were conducted during summer low flows from 2001 to 2007. The effects of the NCD projects on stream condition were assessed via a before–after–control–impact study design to quantify the net changes in stream and bank habitat variables relative to those in unaltered control reaches. Analysis of variance tests of three different measures of bank stability show that on average stream stability increased at treatment sites for 2–5 years after restoration. Mean channel depth, thalweg depth, and the pool–riffle ratio generally increased, whereas mean channel width, percent streambank coverage by trees, and shade decreased. Habitat suitability indices for local salmonid species increased at four of six reaches after restoration. The changes in channel dimensions rendered them generally more characteristic of stabler stream forms in the given valley settings. Although these studies were done relatively soon after project completion, our findings demonstrate that habitat conditions can be improved in degraded Catskill Mountain streams through NCD restoration.

New York

Biological feasibility of introducing bighorn sheep to the Jicarilla Apache Nation

The biological feasibility of introducing Rocky Mountain bighorn sheep ( Ovis canadensis canadensis ) to the Dulce area of the Jicarilla Apache Nation (JAN) depends on availability and condition of potential habitat and the potential for disease risk, as pneumonia is the largest current threat to wild sheep populations. We modeled quality and quantity of potential bighorn sheep habitat incorporating the three most recent fire scars around Dulce, determined potential winter range within preferred habitat, assessed on the ground vegetation characteristics, and examined potential for disease transmission via risk of contact with domestic sheep and goats. Most of the area of interest for this study has a suitability value ≥ 50%, with approximately 23-29% of the study area considered preferred, or high-quality habitat for bighorn sheep. High-quality habitat for Rocky Mountain bighorn sheep is defined as being within 300 m of escape terrain, within 1.6 km of water, and containing ≤ 30% shrub and tree cover. Of this, approximately 43-56% of potential preferred habitat qualifies as winter range, which is mostly concentrated in the narrow valley bottoms where roads are commonly located and the south-facing slopes surrounding valleys. Analysis of field-collected vegetation data indicate most of the existing forage within the surveyed area to be of moderate or high forage value to bighorn sheep, but horizontal visibility, predominantly in the form of shrubs, is more obscured than what bighorn sheep prefer for most of the area of interest. Maximum shrub and tree cover is also the most limiting factor in the suitability model, primarily due to the prevalence of dense shrub regeneration, particularly Gambel oak, which occurs after high severity burns. The largest quantities of high-quality potential bighorn sheep habitat within the study area occur in unburned areas or those burnt by the predominantly low-moderate severity Amargo fire in 2021. Relative to risk of contact with domestic sheep and goats that can transmit lethal pneumonia-causing pathogens, potentially causing an introduction effort to fail, there is high risk because of the proximity to two hobby-subsistence herds (< 3 km away).

New Mexico

A conceptual model for site-level ecology of the giant gartersnake ( Thamnophis gigas ) in the Sacramento Valley, California

Giant gartersnakes (Thamnophis gigas) comprise a species of semi-aquatic snakes precinctive to marshes in the Central Valley of California (Hansen and Brode, 1980; Rossman and others, 1996). Because more than 90 percent of their historical wetland habitat has been converted to other uses (Frayer and others, 1989; Garone, 2007), giant gartersnakes have been listed as threatened by the State of California (California Department of Fish and Game Commission , 1971) and the United States (U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, 1993). Giant gartersnakes currently occur in a highly modified landscape, with most extant populations occurring in the rice - growing regions of the Sacramento Valley, especially near areas that historically were tule marsh habitat (Halstead and others, 2010, 2014). In ricelands and managed marshes, many operational decisions likely affect the health and viability of giant gartersnake populations. Land-use decisions, including the management of water, aquatic vegetation, terrestrial vegetation, and co-occurring species, have the potential to affect giant gartersnakes. Little is known, however, about the effects of these types of decisions on the viability of giant gartersnake populations. Bayesian network models are a useful tool to help guide decisions with uncertain outcomes. These models require the articulation of what experts think they know about a system, and facilitate learning about the hypothesized relations (Marcot and others, 2001; Uusitalo , 2007). Bayesian networks further provide a clear visual display of the model that facilitates understanding among various stakeholders (Marcot and others, 2001; Uusitalo , 2007). Empirical data and expert judgment can be combined, as continuous or categorical variables, to update knowledge about the system (Marcot and others, 2001; Uusitalo , 2007). Importantly, Bayesian network models allow inference from causes to consequences, but also from consequences to causes, so that data can inform the states of nodes (values of different random variables) in either direction (Marcot and others, 2001; Uusitalo , 2007). Because they can incorporate both decision nodes that represent management actions and utility nodes that quantify the costs and benefits of outcomes, Bayesian networks are ideally suited to risk analysis and adaptive management (Nyberg and others, 2006; Howes and others, 2010). Thus, Bayesian network models are useful in situations where empirical data are not available, such as questions concerning the responses of giant gartersnakes to management.

California

Habitat use of woodpeckers in the Big Woods of eastern Arkansas

The Big Woods of eastern Arkansas contain some of the highest densities of woodpeckers recorded within bottomland hardwood forests of the southeastern United States. A better understanding of habitat use patterns by these woodpeckers is a priority for conservationists seeking to maintain these high densities in the Big Woods and the Lower Mississippi Alluvial Valley as a whole. Hence, we used linear mixed-effects and linear models to estimate the importance of habitat characteristics to woodpecker density in the Big Woods during the breeding seasons of 2006 and 2007 and the winter of 2007. Northern flicker Colaptes auratus density was negatively related to tree density both for moderate (. 25 cm diameter at breast height) and larger trees (>61 cm diameter at breast height). Red-headed woodpeckers Melanerpes erythrocephalus also had a negative relationship with density of large (. 61 cm diameter at breast height) trees. Bark disfiguration (an index of tree health) was negatively related to red-bellied woodpecker Melanerpes carolinus and yellow-bellied sapsucker Sphyrapicus varius densities. No measured habitat variables explained pileated woodpecker Dryocopus pileatus density. Overall, the high densities of woodpeckers observed in our study suggest that the current forest management of the Big Woods of Arkansas is meeting the nesting, roosting, and foraging requirements for these birds.

Journal of Fish and Wildlife Management

Patterns of recent brook trout invasion in bull trout streams in relation to habitat, source connectivity, biotic resistance, and disturbance

Knowledge of which habitats are at risk of invasion by nonnative species is essential to conservation, but a changing climate often complicates assessments of where future invasions may occur. Nonnative brook trout Salvelinus fontinalis threaten cold-adapted native salmonids throughout western North America, and the extent of future invasions in coldwater streams is recognized as an area of uncertainty with important consequences. We addressed this uncertainty using spatial-stream-network (SSN) modeling to develop a species distribution model (SDM) for brook trout in Idaho, creating high-resolution prediction maps of suitable (i.e., invadable) habitat under baseline (1990–2015) and future (2080s) climate scenarios, and querying predictions within natal bull trout S. confluentus habitat patches (stream–subwatershed scale) for each scenario. Results indicated that brook trout will experience a net loss of suitable habitat in Idaho, but a large increase of suitable habitat in cold streams. The total proportion of bull trout habitat invadable by brook trout increased from 0.33 during the baseline scenario to 0.44 during the future scenario—a result of upstream expansions of brook trout habitat that were partially offset by contractions in bull trout habitat. Changes in the proportion of invadable habitat varied widely among bull trout patches. Between scenarios, the largest increases in suitable habitat occurred in small, low-gradient, unconfined streams with mean August water temperatures of 7–9 °C during the baseline period. A relatively small proportion of patches contained the majority of invadable habitat in both scenarios, particularly patches in “U-shaped” glacial valleys. A changing climate will broadly increase the threat that brook trout pose to bull trout, but the degree of change experienced by individual populations will vary with local context. The high-resolution prediction maps created by our SSN model will help conservation planners identify and prioritize control efforts on the small proportion of brook trout populations that most threaten bull trout.

Idaho