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Search indexed USGS publications on groundwater, aquifers, geologic maps, mineral resources and earthquakes. Explore source records by subject and place.

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At least 199 records · Page 11Linked to original sources
USGS2023

Large increases in methane emissions expected from North America’s largest wetland complex

Natural methane (CH 4 ) emissions from aquatic ecosystems may rise because of human-induced climate warming, although the magnitude of increase is highly uncertain. Using an exceptionally large CH 4 flux dataset (~19,000 chamber measurements) and remotely sensed information, we modeled plot- and landscape-scale wetland CH 4 emissions from the Prairie Pothole Region (PPR), North America’s largest wetland complex. Plot-scale CH 4 emissions were driven by hydrology, temperature, vegetation, and wetland size. Historically, landscape-scale PPR wetland CH 4 emissions were largely dependent on total wetland extent. However, regardless of future wetland extent, PPR CH 4 emissions are predicted to increase by two- or threefold by 2100 under moderate or severe warming scenarios, respectively. Our findings suggest that international efforts to decrease atmospheric CH 4 concentrations should jointly account for anthropogenic and natural emissions to maintain climate mitigation targets to the end of the century.

North Dakota↗
USGS2023

Understanding uncertainties in contemporary and future extreme wave events for broad-scale impact and adaptation planning

Understanding uncertainties in extreme wind-wave events is essential for offshore/coastal risk and adaptation estimates. Despite this, uncertainties in contemporary extreme wave events have not been assessed, and projections are still limited. Here, we quantify, at global scale, the uncertainties in contemporary extreme wave estimates across an ensemble of widely used global wave reanalyses/hindcasts supported by observations. We find that contemporary uncertainties in 50-year return period wave heights ( H s 50 "> H 50 s 50 ) reach (on average) ~2.5 m in regions adjacent to coastlines and are primarily driven by atmospheric forcing. Furthermore, we show that uncertainties in contemporary H s 50 "> H 50 s 50 estimates dominate projected 21st-century changes in H s 50 "> H 50 s 50 across ~80% of global ocean and coastlines. When translated into broad-scale coastal risk analysis, these uncertainties are comparable to those from storm surges and projected sea level rise. Thus, uncertainties in contemporary extreme wave events need to be combined with those of projections to fully assess potential impacts.

Science Advances↗
USGS2023

Tracking carbon from subduction to outgassing along the Aleutian-Alaska Volcanic Arc

Subduction transports volatiles between Earth’s mantle, crust, and atmosphere, ultimately creating a habitable Earth. We use isotopes to track carbon from subduction to outgassing along the Aleutian-Alaska Arc. We find substantial along-strike variations in the isotopic composition of volcanic gases, explained by different recycling efficiencies of subducting carbon to the atmosphere via arc volcanism and modulated by subduction character. Fast and cool subduction facilitates recycling of ~43 to 61% sediment-derived organic carbon to the atmosphere through degassing of central Aleutian volcanoes, while slow and warm subduction favors forearc sediment removal, leading to recycling of ~6 to 9% altered oceanic crust carbon to the atmosphere through degassing of western Aleutian volcanoes. These results indicate that less carbon is returned to the deep mantle than previously thought and that subducting organic carbon is not a reliable atmospheric carbon sink over subduction time scales.

Alaska↗
USGS2023

Density declines, richness increases, and composition shifts in stream macroinvertebrates

Documenting trends of stream macroinvertebrate biodiversity is challenging because biomonitoring often has limited spatial, temporal, and taxonomic scopes. We analyzed biodiversity and composition of assemblages of >500 genera, spanning 27 years, and 6131 stream sites across forested, grassland, urban, and agricultural land uses throughout the United States. In this dataset, macroinvertebrate density declined by 11% and richness increased by 12.2%, and insect density and richness declined by 23.3 and 6.8%, respectively, over 27 years. In addition, differences in richness and composition between urban and agricultural versus forested and grassland streams have increased over time. Urban and agricultural streams lost the few disturbance-sensitive taxa they once had and gained disturbance-tolerant taxa. These results suggest that current efforts to protect and restore streams are not sufficient to mitigate anthropogenic effects.

Science Advances↗
USGS2023

The 2022 Hunga-Tonga megatsunami: Near-field simulation of a once-in-a-century event

The Hunga Tonga–Hunga Ha’apai (HTHH) volcanic eruption in January 2022 generated catastrophic tsunami and contends for the largest natural explosion in more than a century. The main island, Tongatapu, suffered waves up to 17 m, and Tofua Island suffered waves up to 45 m, comfortably placing HTHH in the “megatsunami” league. We present a tsunami simulation of the Tongan Archipelago calibrated by field observations, drone, and satellite data. Our simulation emphasizes how the complex shallow bathymetry of the area acted as a low-velocity wave trap, capturing tsunami for more than 1 hour. Despite its size and long duration, few lives were lost. Simulation suggests that HTHH’s location relative to urban centers saved Tonga from a worse outcome. Whereas 2022 seems to have been a lucky escape, other oceanic volcanoes have the capacity to spawn future tsunami at HTHH scale. Our simulation amplifies the state of understanding of volcanic explosion tsunami and provides a framework for assessment of future hazards.

Science Advances↗
USGS2023

Rapid shallow megathrust afterslip from the 2021 M8.2 Chignik, Alaska earthquake revealed by seafloor geodesy

The shallower portions of subduction zone megathrust faults host Earth’s most hazardous tsunamigenic earthquakes, yet understanding how and when they slip remains elusive because of challenges making seafloor observations. We performed Global Navigation Satellite System Acoustic seafloor geodetic surveys before and ~2.5 months after the 29 July 2021 M w (moment magnitude) 8.2 Chignik, Alaska, earthquake and determine ~1.4 meters cumulative co- and post-seismic horizontal displacement ~60 kilometers from the megathrust front. Only for the 2011 M w 9 Tohoku event have closer subduction zone earthquake displacements been observed. We estimate ~2 to 3 meters of megathrust afterslip shallower than 20 kilometers, a portion of the megathrust on which both inter- and co-seismic slip likely had occurred previously. Our analysis demonstrates that by 2.5 months, shallower and deeper moment had effectively equilibrated on the megathrust, suggesting that its tsunamigenic potential remains no more elevated than before the earthquake.

Alaska↗
USGS2023

A scuticociliate causes mass mortality of Diadema antillarum in the Caribbean Sea

Echinoderm mass mortality events shape marine ecosystems by altering the dynamics among major benthic groups. The sea urchin Diadema antillarum , virtually extirpated in the Caribbean in the early 1980s by an unknown cause, recently experienced another mass mortality beginning in January 2022. We investigated the cause of this mass mortality event through combined molecular biological and veterinary pathologic approaches comparing grossly normal and abnormal animals collected from 23 sites, representing locations that were either affected or unaffected at the time of sampling. Here, we report that a scuticociliate most similar to Philaster apodigitiformis was consistently associated with abnormal urchins at affected sites but was absent from unaffected sites. Experimentally challenging naïve urchins with a Philaster culture isolated from an abnormal, field-collected specimen resulted in gross signs consistent with those of the mortality event. The same ciliate was recovered from treated specimens postmortem, thus fulfilling Koch’s postulates for this microorganism. We term this condition D. antillarum scuticociliatosis.

Science Advances↗
USGS2023

A multifault earthquake threat for the Seattle metropolitan region revealed by mass tree mortality

Compound earthquakes involving simultaneous ruptures along multiple faults often define a region’s upper threshold of maximum magnitude. Yet, the potential for linked faulting remains poorly understood given the infrequency of these events in the historic era. Geological records provide longer perspectives, although temporal uncertainties are too broad to clearly pinpoint single multifault events. Here, we use dendrochronological dating and a cosmogenic radiation pulse to constrain the death dates of earthquake-killed trees along two adjacent fault zones near Seattle, Washington to within a 6-month period between the 923 and 924 CE growing seasons. Our narrow constraints conclusively show linked rupturing that occurred either as a single composite earthquake of estimated magnitude 7.8 or as a closely spaced double earthquake sequence with estimated magnitudes of 7.5 and 7.3. These scenarios, which are not recognized in current hazard models, increase the maximum earthquake size needed for seismic preparedness and engineering design within the Puget Sound region of >4 million residents.

Washington↗
USGS2023

Shifted sediment-transport regimes by climate change and amplified hydrological variability in cryosphere-fed rivers

Climate change affects cryosphere-fed rivers and alters seasonal sediment dynamics, affecting cyclical fluvial material supply and year-round water-food-energy provisions to downstream communities. Here, we demonstrate seasonal sediment-transport regime shifts from the 1960s to 2000s in four cryosphere-fed rivers characterized by glacial, nival, pluvial, and mixed regimes, respectively. Spring sees a shift toward pluvial-dominated sediment transport due to less snowmelt and more erosive rainfall. Summer is characterized by intensified glacier meltwater pulses and pluvial events that exceptionally increase sediment fluxes. Our study highlights that the increases in hydroclimatic extremes and cryosphere degradation lead to amplified variability in fluvial fluxes and higher summer sediment peaks, which can threaten downstream river infrastructure safety and ecosystems and worsen glacial/pluvial floods. We further offer a monthly-scale sediment-availability-transport model that can reproduce such regime shifts and thus help facilitate sustainable reservoir operation and river management in wider cryospheric regions under future climate and hydrological change.

Science Advances↗
USGS2024

The magmatic origin of the Columbia River Gorge, USA

Along subduction zones, high-relief topography is associated with sustained volcanism parallel to the plate margin. However, the relationship between magmatism and mountain building in arcs is poorly understood. Here, we study patterns of surface deformation and correlated fluvial knickpoints in the Columbia River Gorge to link long-term magmatism to the uplift and ensuing topographic development of the Cascade Range. An upwarped paleochannel exposed in the walls of the Gorge constrains unsteady deep magma flux, the ratio of intrusive to extrusive magmatic contributions to topography, and the impact of magmatism on Columbia River incision since 3.5 million years ago. Geophysical data indicate that deep magma influx beneath the arc axis is ongoing and not aligned with the current locations of volcanic edifices, representing a broad regional influence on arc construction.

Oregon, Washington↗
USGS2024

Why do seismic hazard models worldwide appear to overpredict historical intensity observations?

Probabilistic seismic hazard assessments (PSHAs) provide the scientific basis for building codes to reduce damage from earthquakes. Despite their substantial impact, little is known about how well PSHA predicts actual shaking. Recent PSHA for California, Japan, Italy, Nepal, and France appear to consistently overpredict historically observed earthquake shaking intensities. Numerical simulations show that observed shaking is equally likely to be above or below predictions. This result from independently developed models and datasets in different countries and tectonic settings indicates possible systematic bias in the hazard models, the observations, or both. Analysis of possible causes shows that much of the discrepancy is due to a subtle and rarely considered issue: the conversion equations used in comparing the models—which forecast shaking as peak ground acceleration or velocity—and observations—parameterizations of qualitative shaking reports. Historical shaking reports fill a crucial data gap, but more research is warranted on how qualitative observations relate to instrumental shaking measures for earthquakes.

Science Advances↗
USGS2024

Four decades of data indicate that planted mangroves stored up to 75% of the carbon stocks found in intact mature stands

Mangroves’ ability to store carbon (C) has long been recognized, but little is known about whether planted mangroves can store C as efficiently as naturally established (i.e., intact) stands and in which time frame. Through Bayesian logistic models compiled from 40 years of data and built from 684 planted mangrove stands worldwide, we found that biomass C stock culminated at 71 to 73% to that of intact stands ~20 years after planting. Furthermore, prioritizing mixed-species planting including Rhizophora spp. would maximize C accumulation within the biomass compared to monospecific planting. Despite a 25% increase in the first 5 years following planting, no notable change was observed in the soil C stocks thereafter, which remains at a constant value of 75% to that of intact soil C stock, suggesting that planting effectively prevents further C losses due to land use change. These results have strong implications for mangrove restoration planning and serve as a baseline for future C buildup assessments.

Science Advances↗
USGS2024

Stony coral tissue loss disease indirectly alters reef communities

Many Caribbean coral reefs are near collapse due to various threats. An emerging threat, stony coral tissue loss disease (SCTLD), is spreading across the Western Atlantic and Caribbean. Data from the U.S. Virgin Islands reveal how SCTLD spread has reduced the abundance of susceptible coral and crustose coralline algae and increased cyanobacteria, fire coral, and macroalgae. A Caribbean-wide structural equation model demonstrates versatility in reef fish and associations with rugosity independent of live coral. Model projections suggest that some reef fishes will decline due to SCTLD, with the largest changes on reefs that lose the most susceptible corals and rugosity. Mapping these projected declines in space indicates how the indirect effects of SCTLD range from undetectable to devastating.

Virgin Islands↗
USGS2024

Seismically detected cratering on Mars: Enhanced recent impact flux?

Seismic observations of impacts on Mars indicate a higher impact flux than previously measured. Using six confirmed seismic impact detections near the NASA InSight lander and two distant large impacts, we calculate appropriate scalings to compare these rates with lunar-based chronology models. We also update the impact rate from orbital observations using the most recent catalog of new craters on Mars. The snapshot of the current impact rate at Mars recorded seismically is higher than that found using orbital detections alone. The measured rates differ between a factor of 2 and 10, depending on the diameter, although the sample size of seismically detected impacts is small. The close timing of the two largest new impacts found on Mars in the past few decades indicates either a heightened impact rate or a low-probability temporal coincidence, perhaps representing recent fragmentation of a parent body. We conclude that seismic methods of detecting current impacts offer a more complete dataset than orbital imaging.

Science Advances↗
USGS2024

Subduction intraslab-interface fault interactions in the 2022 Mw 6.4 Ferndale, California earthquake sequence

The Mendocino triple junction, the intersection of the Pacific, North American, and Gorda plates, activates a collection of disparate faults that reconcile Cascadia subduction with San Andreas transform motion. The December 20, 2022, Mw 6.4 Ferndale, California earthquake occurred within this complex zone as strike-slip faulting within the subducting Gorda slab. Here, we analyze the seismic and geodetic signatures of the mainshock and aftershock sequence to illuminate its role within complex tectonic surroundings. We find aftershocks on varied fault structures within the uppermost Gorda slab, yet seismicity on the subduction interface itself was notably absent. Nevertheless, we identify small but coherent postseismic deformation that is well modeled by aseismic slip on this interface, likely triggered by stresses generated at the updip limit of coseismic rupture. This sequence demonstrates the potential for interactions between intra-slab earthquakes and slip on the subduction megathrust, highlighting the need to consider this and other subduction zones as coupled systems of interacting faults.

California↗
USGS2024

Disturbance amplifies sensitivity of dryland productivity to precipitation variability

Variability of the terrestrial global carbon sink is largely determined by the response of dryland productivity to annual precipitation. Despite extensive disturbance in drylands, how disturbance alters productivity-precipitation relationships remains poorly understood. Using remote-sensing to pair more than 5600 km of natural gas pipeline corridors with neighboring undisturbed areas in North American drylands, we found that disturbance reduced average annual production 6 to 29% and caused up to a fivefold increase in the sensitivity of net primary productivity (NPP) to interannual variation in precipitation. Disturbance impacts were larger and longer-lasting at locations with higher precipitation (>450 mm mean annual precipitation). Disturbance effects on NPP dynamics were mostly explained by shifts from woody to herbaceous vegetation. Severe disturbance will amplify effects of increasing precipitation variability on NPP in drylands.

Science Advances↗
USGS2025

Hybrid coral reef restoration can be a cost-effective nature-based solution to provide protection to vulnerable coastal populations

Coral reefs can mitigate flood damages by providing protection to tropical coastal communities whose populations are dense, growing fast, and have predominantly lower-middle income. This study provides the first fine-scale, regionally modeled valuations of how flood risk reductions associated with hybrid coral reef restoration could benefit people, property, and economic activity along Florida and Puerto Rico’s 1005 kilometers of reef-lined coasts. Restoration of up to 20% of the regions’ coral reefs could provide flood reduction benefits greater than costs. Reef habitats with the greatest benefits are shallow, nearshore, and fronting low-lying, vulnerable communities, which are often where reef impacts and loss are the greatest. Minorities, children, the elderly, and those below the poverty line could receive more than double the hazard risk reduction benefits of the overall population, demonstrating that reef restoration as a nature-based solution can have positive returns on investment economically and socially by providing protection to the most vulnerable people.

Florida↗
USGS2024

Signatures of wave erosion in Titan’s coasts

The shorelines of Titan’s hydrocarbon seas trace flooded erosional landforms such as river valleys; however, it is unclear whether coastal erosion has subsequently altered these shorelines. Spacecraft observations and theoretical models suggest that wind may cause waves to form on Titan’s seas, potentially driving coastal erosion, but the observational evidence of waves is indirect, and the processes affecting shoreline evolution on Titan remain unknown. No widely accepted framework exists for using shoreline morphology to quantitatively discern coastal erosion mechanisms, even on Earth, where the dominant mechanisms are known. We combine landscape evolution models with measurements of shoreline shape on Earth to characterize how different coastal erosion mechanisms affect shoreline morphology. Applying this framework to Titan, we find that the shorelines of Titan’s seas are most consistent with flooded landscapes that subsequently have been eroded by waves, rather than a uniform erosional process or no coastal erosion, particularly if wave growth saturates at fetch lengths of tens of kilometers.

Science Advances↗