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Western Mountain Initiative: predicting ecosystem responses to climate change

Mountain ecosystems of the western United States provide irreplaceable goods and services such as water, timber, biodiversity, and recreational opportunities, but their responses to climatic changes are complex and not well understood. The Western Mountain Initiative (WMI), a collaboration between USGS and U.S. Forest Service scientists, catalyzes assessment and synthesis of the effects of disturbance and climate change across western mountain areas, focusing on national parks and surrounding national forests. The WMI takes an ecosystem approach to science, integrating research across science disciplines at scales ranging from field studies to global trends.

Fact Sheet

Flood-inundation maps for Indian Creek and Tomahawk Creek, Johnson County, Kansas, 2014

Digital flood-inundation maps for a 6.4-mile upper reach of Indian Creek from College Boulevard to the confluence with Tomahawk Creek, a 3.9-mile reach of Tomahawk Creek from 127th Street to the confluence with Indian Creek, and a 1.9-mile lower reach of Indian Creek from the confluence with Tomahawk Creek to just beyond the Kansas/Missouri border at State Line Road in Johnson County, Kansas, were created by the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the city of Overland Park, Kansas. The flood-inundation maps, which can be accessed through the U.S. Geological Survey Flood Inundation Mapping Science Web site at http://water.usgs.gov/osw/flood_inundation/ , depict estimates of the areal extent and depth of flooding corresponding to selected water levels (stages) at the U.S. Geological Survey streamgages on Indian Creek at Overland Park, Kansas; Indian Creek at State Line Road, Leawood, Kansas; and Tomahawk Creek near Overland Park, Kansas. Near real time stages at these streamgages may be obtained on the Web from the U.S. Geological Survey National Water Information System at http://waterdata.usgs.gov/nwis or the National Weather Service Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service at http://water.weather.gov/ahps/ , which also forecasts flood hydrographs at these sites. Flood profiles were computed for the stream reaches by means of a one-dimensional step-backwater model. The model was calibrated for each reach by using the most current stage-discharge relations at the streamgages. The hydraulic models were then used to determine 15 water-surface profiles for Indian Creek at Overland Park, Kansas; 17 water-surface profiles for Indian Creek at State Line Road, Leawood, Kansas; and 14 water-surface profiles for Tomahawk Creek near Overland Park, Kansas, for flood stages at 1-foot intervals referenced to the streamgage datum and ranging from bankfull to the next interval above the 0.2-percent annual exceedance probability flood level (500-year recurrence interval). The simulated water-surface profiles were then combined in a geographic information system with a digital elevation model derived from light detection and ranging data (having a 0.429-foot vertical and 0.228-foot horizontal accuracy) to delineate the area flooded at each water level. The availability of these maps, along with Web information regarding current stage from the U.S. Geological Survey streamgages and forecasted high-flow stages from the National Weather Service, will provide emergency management personnel and residents with information that is critical for flood response activities such as evacuations, road closures, and postflood recovery efforts.

Kansas

The Everglades vulnerability analysis—Integrating ecological models and addressing uncertainty

The Everglades vulnerability analysis (EVA) is a project led by the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the National Park Service and U.S. Army Corps of Engineers to accomplish one of the science goals of Restoration Coordination & Verification (RECOVER), a multiagency group responsible for providing scientific and technical evaluations and assessments for improving the ability of the Comprehensive Everglades Restoration Plan to restore, preserve, and protect the south Florida ecosystem while providing for the region’s other water-related needs. In 2016, RECOVER acknowledged the need for a tool that could synthesize the decades of Everglades ecosystem science and identify areas vulnerable to changing conditions on the landscape. The EVA tool answers this need through a landscape-scale modeling framework that provides annual responses and relative vulnerability for a suite of indicators of Everglades ecosystem health.

Florida

Adapting to climate change at Olympic National Forest and Olympic National Park

Climate change presents a major challenge to natural resource managers both because of the magnitude of potential effects of climate change on ecosystem structure, processes, and function, and because of the uncertainty associated with those potential ecological effects. Concrete ways to adapt to climate change are needed to help natural resource managers take the first steps to incorporate climate change into management and take advantage of opportunities to counteract the negative effects of climate change. We began a climate change adaptation case study at Olympic National Forest (ONF) in partnership with Olympic National Park (ONP) to determine how to adapt management of federal lands on the Olympic Peninsula, Washington, to climate change. The case study began in the summer of 2008 and continued for 1½ years. The case study process involved science-based sensitivity assessments, review of management activities and constraints, and adaptation workshops in each of four focus areas (hydrology and roads, fish, vegetation, and wildlife). The process produced adaptation options for ONF and ONP, and illustrated the utility of place-based vulnerability assessment and science-management workshops in adapting to climate change. The case study process provides an example for other national forests, national parks, and natural resource agencies of how federal land management units can collaborate in the initial stages of climate change adaptation. Many of the ideas generated through this process can potentially be applied in other locations and in other agencies

Washington

USGS ecosystem research for the next decade: advancing discovery and application in parks and protected areas through collaboration

Ecosystems within parks and protected areas in the United States and throughout the world are being transformed at an unprecedented rate. Changes associated with natural hazards, greenhouse gas emissions, and increasing demands for water, food, land, energy and mineral resources are placing urgency on sound decision making that will help sustain our Nation’s economic and environmental well-being (Millennium Ecosystem Assessment, 2005). In recognition of the importance of science in making these decisions, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) in 2007 identified ecosystem science as one of six science directions included in a comprehensive decadal strategy (USGS 2007). The Ecosystems Mission Area was identified as essential for integrating activity within the USGS and as a key to enhanced integration with other Federal and private sector research and management organizations (Myers at al., 2007). This paper focuses on benefits to parks and protected areas from the USGS Ecosystems Mission Area plan that expanded the scope of the original 2007 science strategy, to identify the Bureau’s work in ecosystem science over the next decade (Williams et al., 2013). The plan describes a framework that encompasses both basic and applied science and allows the USGS to continue to contribute meaningfully to conservation and management issues related to the Nation’s parks and ecological resources. This framework relies on maintaining long-standing, collaborative relationships with partners in both conducting science and applying scientific results. Here we summarize the major components of the USGS Ecosystems Science Strategy, articulating the vision, goals and strategic approaches, then outlining some of the proposed actions that will ultimately prove useful to those managing parks and protected areas. We end with a discussion on the future of ecosystem science for the USGS and how it can be used to evaluate ecosystem change and the associated consequences to management of our Nation’s natural resources.

The George Wright Forum

Status and distribution of ants in the Crater District of Haleakala National Park

The Crater District of Haleakala National Park was surveyed for ants. Three species were found. Argentine ants (Iridomyrmex humilis) occurred only within I km of the park headquarters and the nearby research facility. Hypoponera opaciceps was found in small numbers throughout the Crater District. Cardiocondyla emeryi was present only at the head of Kaupo Gap. Possible impacts of these ant species on the endemic, flightless insects of the park are discussed.

Hawaii

Lidar vegetation mapping in national parks: Gulf Coast Network

Airborne lidar (Light Detection and Ranging) is an active remote sensing technique used to collect accurate elevation data over large areas. Lidar provides an extremely high level of regional topographic detail, which makes this technology an essential component of U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) science strategy. The USGS Coastal and Marine Geology Program (CMGP) has collaborated with the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) and the National Park Service (NPS) to acquire dense topographic lidar data in a variety of coastal environments.

Louisiana

Wilderness experience in Rocky Mountain National Park 2002: Report to RMNP

Approximately 250,000 acres of backcountry in Rocky Mountain National Park (RMNP or the Park) may be designated as wilderness use areas in the coming years. Currently, over 3 million people visit RMNP each year; many drive through the park on Trail Ridge Road, camp in designated campgrounds, or hike in front-country areas. However, visitors also report much use of backcountry areas that are not easily accessible by roads or trails. Use of the backcountry is growing at RMNP and is accompanied by changing visitor expectations and preferences for wilderness management. For these reasons it is of great importance for the Park to periodically assess what types of environments and conditions wilderness users seek, to help them facilitate a quality wilderness experience. To assist in this effort, the Political Analysis and Science Assistance [PASA] program / Fort Collins Science Center / U.S. Geological Survey, in close collaboration with personnel and volunteers from RMNP and in cooperation with the Natural Resource Recreation and Tourism [NRRT] Department at CSU, and launched a research effort in the summer of 2002 to investigate visitor numbers, wilderness experiences, and management preferences in the Park. Specifically, the purposes of the research reported here are: (1) To determine what constitutes a wilderness experience; (2) To identify important places, visual features, and sounds essential to a quality wilderness experience and; (3) To determine what aspects may detract from wilderness experience in RMNP. Thus, answers to these questions should provide insight for Park managers about visitors' expectations for wilderness recreation and the conditions they seek for quality wilderness experiences. Ultimately, this information can be used to support wilderness management decisions within RMNP. The social science technique of Visitor Employed Photography [VEP] was used to obtain information from visitors about wilderness experiences. Visitors were selected at random from Park-designated wilderness trails, in proportion to their use, and asked to participate in the survey. Respondents were given single-use, 10-exposure cameras and photo-log diaries to record experiences. A total of 293 cameras were distributed, with a response rate of 87%. Following the development of the photos, a copy of the photos, two pertinent pages from the photo-log, and a follow-up survey were mailed to respondents. Fifty six percent of the follow-up surveys were returned. Findings from the two surveys were analyzed and compared.

Open-File Report

A geologic guide to Wrangell-Saint Elias National Park and Preserve, Alaska: A tectonic collage of northbound terranes

Wrangell-Saint Elias National Park and Preserve, the largest unit in the U.S. National Park System, encompasses near 13.2 million acres of geological wonderments. This geologic guide presents history of exploration and Earth-science investigation; describes the complex geologic makeup; characterizes the vast college of accretion geologic terranes in this area of Alaska's continental margin; recapitulates the effects of earthquakes, volcanoes, and glaciers; characterizes the copper and gold resources of the parklands; and describes outstanding locales within the park and preserve area. A glossary of geologic terms and a categorized list of additional sources of information complete this report.

Alaska

The interior structure of Ceres as revealed by surface topography

Ceres, the largest body in the asteroid belt (940 km diameter), provides a unique opportunity to study the interior structure of a volatile-rich dwarf planet. Variations in a planetary body's subsurface rheology and density affect the rate of topographic relaxation. Preferential attenuation of long wavelength topography (≥150 km) on Ceres suggests that the viscosity of its crust decreases with increasing depth. We present finite element (FE) geodynamical simulations of Ceres to identify the internal structures and compositions that best reproduce its topography as observed by the NASA Dawn mission. We infer that Ceres has a mechanically strong crust with maximum effective viscosity ∼10 25 Pa s. Combined with density constraints, this rheology suggests a crustal composition of carbonates or phyllosilicates, water ice, and at least 30 volume percent (vol.%) low-density, high-strength phases most consistent with salt and/or clathrate hydrates. The inference of these crustal materials supports the past existence of a global ocean, consistent with the observed surface composition. Meanwhile, we infer that the uppermost ≥60 km of the silicate-rich mantle is mechanically weak with viscosity <10 21 Pa s, suggesting the presence of liquid pore fluids in this region and a low temperature history that avoided igneous differentiation due to late accretion or efficient heat loss through hydrothermal processes.

Earth and Planetary Science Letters

Identification and extraction of the seaward edge of terrestrial vegetation using digital aerial photography

This report is created as part of the Aerial Data Collection and Creation of Products for Park Vital Signs Monitoring within the Northeast Region Coastal and Barrier Network project, which is a joint project between the National Park Service Inventory and Monitoring Program (NPS-IM), the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Observational Sciences Branch, and the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Center for Coastal and Watershed Studies (CCWS). This report is one of a series that discusses methods for extracting topographic features from aerial survey data. It details step-by-step methods used to extract a spatially referenced digital line from aerial photography that represents the seaward edge of terrestrial vegetation along the coast of Assateague Island National Seashore (ASIS). One component of the NPS-IM/USGS/NASA project includes the collection of NASA aerial surveys over various NPS barrier islands and coastal parks throughout the National Park Service's Northeast Region. These aerial surveys consist of collecting optical remote sensing data from a variety of sensors, including the NASA Airborne Topographic Mapper (ATM), the NASA Experimental Advanced Airborne Research Lidar (EAARL), and down-looking digital mapping cameras.

Open-File Report

The Wetland and Aquatic Research Center strategic science plan

Introduction The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Wetland and Aquatic Research Center (WARC) has two primary locations (Gainesville, Florida, and Lafayette, Louisiana) and field stations throughout the southeastern United States and Caribbean. WARC’s roots are in U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS) and National Park Service research units that were brought into the USGS as the Biological Research Division in 1996. Founded in 2015, WARC was created from the merger of two long-standing USGS biology science Centers—the Southeast Ecological Science Center and the National Wetlands Research Center—to bring together expertise in biology, ecology, landscape science, geospatial applications, and decision support in order to address issues nationally and internationally. WARC scientists apply their expertise to a variety of wetland and aquatic research and monitoring issues that require coordinated, integrated efforts to better understand natural environments. By increasing basic understanding of the biology of important species and broader ecological and physiological processes, this research provides information to policymakers and aids managers in their stewardship of natural resources and in regulatory functions. This strategic science plan (SSP) was developed to guide WARC research during the next 5–10 years in support of Department of the Interior (DOI) partnering bureaus such as the USFWS, the National Park Service, and the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management, as well as other Federal, State, and local natural resource management agencies. The SSP demonstrates the alignment of the WARC goals with the USGS mission areas, associated programs, and other DOI initiatives. The SSP is necessary for workforce planning and, as such, will be used as a guide for future needs for personnel. The SSP also will be instrumental in developing internal funding priorities and in promoting WARC’s capabilities to both external cooperators and other groups within the USGS.

Open-File Report

Recreation, values and stewardship: Rethinking why people engage in environmental behaviors in parks and protected areas

Successfully promoting and encouraging the adoption of environmental stewardship behavior is an important responsibility for public land management agencies. Although people increasingly report high levels of concern about environmental issues, widespread patterns of stewardship behavior have not followed suit (Moore 2002). One concept that can be applied in social science research to explain behavior change is that of values. More specifically, held and assigned values lie at the heart of understanding why people around the world continue to live in unsustainable ways that impact parks and protected areas. A held value is an individual psychological orientation defined by Rokeach as “an enduring belief that a specific mode of conduct or endstate of existence is personally and socially preferable” (1973, 550). Held values are at the core of human cognition, and as such, influence attitudes and behavior. Assigned values on the other hand, according to Brown (1984), are the perceived qualities of an environment that are based on and deduced from held values. In other words, assigned values are considered the material and nonmaterial benefits that people believe they obtain from ecosystems. Held and assigned values predict stewardship behaviors (Figure 1). During the 2013 George Wright Society Conference on Parks, Protected Areas, and Cultural Sites, we organized a session to improve our understanding of why individuals and groups choose to engage in stewardship behaviors that benefit the environment. We used held and assigned values as vehicles to explore what people cared about in diverse landscapes, review select case studies from across the globe, and question how best to incorporate visitor perspectives into protected area management decisions and policymaking. In addition to sharing project results, we also discussed the importance of accounting for multiple and often competing value perspectives, potential ways to integrate disciplinary perspectives on valuing nature, and future directions for social science research and practice. In this paper, we present the results from our session to provide fodder for further contemplation about the timely question of how park and protected area managers can foster values that lead to environmental protection.

Book chapter

Population and spatial dynamics of desert bighorn sheep in Grand Canyon during an outbreak of respiratory pneumonia

Introduction: Terrestrial species in riverine ecosystems face unique constraints leading to diverging patterns of population structure, connectivity, and disease dynamics. Desert bighorn sheep ( Ovis canadensis nelsoni ) in Grand Canyon National Park, a large native population in the southwestern USA, offer a unique opportunity to evaluate population patterns and processes in a remote riverine system with ongoing anthropogenic impacts. We integrated non-invasive, invasive, and citizen-science methods to address questions on abundance, distribution, disease status, genetic structure, and habitat fragmentation. Methods: We compiled bighorn sightings collected during river trips by park staff, commercial guides, and private citizens from 2000–2018 and captured bighorn in 2010–2016 to deploy GPS collars and test for disease. From 2011–2015, we non-invasively collected fecal samples and genotyped them at 9–16 microsatellite loci for individual identification and genetic structure. We used assignment tests to evaluate genetic structure and identify subpopulations, then estimated gene flow and recent migration to evaluate fragmentation. We used spatial capture-recapture to estimate annual population size, distribution, and trends after accounting for spatial variation in detection with a resource selection function model. Results and discussion: From 2010–2018, 3,176 sightings of bighorn were reported, with sightings of 56–145 bighorn annually on formal surveys. From 2012–2016, bighorn exhibiting signs of respiratory disease were observed along the river throughout the park. Of 25 captured individuals, 56% were infected by Mycoplasma ovipneumoniae , a key respiratory pathogen, and 81% were recently exposed. Pellet sampling for population estimation from 2011–2015 yielded 1,250 genotypes and 453 individuals. We detected 6 genetic clusters that exhibited mild to moderate genetic structure ( F ST 0.022–0.126). The river, distance, and likely topography restricted recent gene flow, but we detected cross-river movements in one section via genetic recaptures, no subpopulation appeared completely isolated, and genetic diversity was among the highest reported. Recolonization of one large stretch of currently empty habitat appears limited by the constrained topology of this system. Annual population estimates ranged 536–552 (95% CrI range 451–647), lamb:ewe ratios varied, and no significant population decline was detected. We provide a multi-method sampling framework useful for sampling other wildlife in remote riverine systems.

Arizona