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At least 199 records · Page 11Linked to original sources

Winter habitat selection of mule deer before and during development of a natural gas field

Increased levels of natural gas exploration, development, and production across the Intermountain West have created a variety of concerns for mule deer (Odocoileus hemionus) populations, including direct habitat loss to road and well-pad construction and indirect habitat losses that may occur if deer use declines near roads or well pads. We examined winter habitat selection patterns of adult female mule deer before and during the first 3 years of development in a natural gas field in western Wyoming. We used global positioning system (GPS) locations collected from a sample of adult female mule deer to model relative frequency or probability of use as a function of habitat variables. Model coefficients and predictive maps suggested mule deer were less likely to occupy areas in close proximity to well pads than those farther away. Changes in habitat selection appeared to be immediate (i.e., year 1 of development), and no evidence of well-pad acclimation occurred through the course of the study; rather, mule deer selected areas farther from well pads as development progressed. Lower predicted probabilities of use within 2.7 to 3.7 km of well pads suggested indirect habitat losses may be substantially larger than direct habitat losses. Additionally, some areas classified as high probability of use by mule deer before gas field development changed to areas of low use following development, and others originally classified as low probability of use were used more frequently as the field developed. If areas with high probability of use before development were those preferred by the deer, observed shifts in their distribution as development progressed were toward less-preferred and presumably less-suitable habitats.

Journal of Wildlife Management↗

Comparing life history characteristics of Lake Michigan’s naturalized and stocked Chinook Salmon

Lake Michigan supports popular fisheries for Chinook Salmon Oncorhynchus tshawytscha that have been sustained by stocking since the late 1960s. Natural recruitment of Chinook Salmon in Lake Michigan has increased in the past few decades and currently contributes more than 50% of Chinook Salmon recruits. We hypothesized that selective forces differ for naturalized populations born in the wild and hatchery populations, resulting in divergent life history characteristics with implications for Chinook Salmon population production and the Lake Michigan fishery. First, we conducted a historical analysis to determine if life history characteristics changed through time as the Chinook Salmon population became increasingly naturalized. Next, we conducted a 2-year field study of naturalized and hatchery stocked Chinook Salmon spawning populations to quantify differences in fecundity, egg size, timing of spawning, and size at maturity. In general, our results did not indicate significant life history divergence between naturalized and hatchery-stocked Chinook Salmon populations in Lake Michigan. Although historical changes in adult sex ratio were correlated with the proportion of naturalized individuals, changes in weight at maturity were better explained by density-dependent factors. The field study revealed no divergence in fecundity, timing of spawning, or size at maturity, and only small differences in egg size (hatchery > naturalized). For the near future, our results suggest that the limited life history differences observed between Chinook Salmon of naturalized and hatchery origin will not lead to large differences in characteristics important to the dynamics of the population or fishery.

Lake Michigan↗

Guidelines for collection and field analysis of ground-water samples for selected unstable constituents

The unstable nature of many chemical and physical constituents in ground water requires special collection procedures and field analysis immediately after collection. This report describes the techniques and equipment commonly used in the collection and field analysis of samples for pH, temperature, carbonate, bicarbonate, specific conductance, Eh, and dissolved oxygen.

Open-File Report↗

Guidelines for collection and field analysis of ground-water samples for selected unstable constituents

The unstable nature of many chemical and physical constituents in ground water requires special collection procedures and field analysis immediately after collection. This report describes the techniques and equipment commonly used m the collection and field analysis of samples for pH, temperature, carbonate, bicarbonate, specific conductance, Eh, and dissolved oxygen.

Techniques of Water-Resources Investigations↗

Selected anthropogenic contaminants in groundwater, Papio-Missouri River Natural Resources District, eastern Nebraska, 1992–2020

A study in cooperation with the Papio-Missouri River Natural Resources District was completed in 2019 to determine the concentration of contaminants of emerging concern (CEC) in groundwater in the Papio-Missouri River Natural Resources District, eastern Nebraska. Each well was sampled twice (in June and October or November) in 2019, totaling 34 samples. Samples were analyzed for 132 CECs, which include pharmaceutical, steroid hormone, and other organic chemicals. Seven of the 132 CEC analytes were detected in samples collected during this study. The most commonly detected CEC in this study was the antibiotic sulfamethoxazole. Other CECs detected in this study were nicotine, methyl-1 H -benzotiazole (industrial product), acetaminophen (analgesic), caffeine, and metformin (diabetes medicine). None of the detected CECs have health-based water-quality standards. The agricultural herbicide atrazine was also sampled for and was detected in 15 of 26 samples from 8 wells, but all samples were below the established water-quality standard. Nitrate, dissolved oxygen, and iron sampling results for 2010–19 and 1992–2020 were also assessed to determine the extent and trend of anthropogenic contamination in the Papio-Missouri River Natural Resources District. Nitrate as nitrogen was detected at a concentration greater than 4 milligrams per liter in 92 samples (19 percent), and detections in 36 samples (7.6 percent) exceeded 10 milligrams per liter, which is the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s maximum contaminant level for drinking water and Nebraska’s Title 118 maximum contaminant level for groundwater. Time series analysis showed that nitrate concentrations are not increasing or decreasing in any of the aquifers except for in three specific well nests, which are in phase 2 management areas. Dissolved oxygen results indicate potential denitrification throughout the Elkhorn alluvial aquifer; iron concentrations indicate potential denitrification in parts of the Missouri River alluvial aquifer.

Nebraska↗

Effects of an early mass-flowering crop on wild bee communities and traits in power line corridors vary with blooming plants and landscape context

Context Power line corridors have been repeatedly assessed as habitat for wild bees; however, few studies have examined them as bee habitat relative to nearby crop fields and surrounding landscape context. Objectives We surveyed bee communities in power line corridors near to and isolated from lowbush blueberry fields in two landscape contexts in Maine, U.S.A. We examined the influences of blooming plant abundance and diversity and bee life-history traits including sociality, nesting preference, and body size. Methods We surveyed wild bees and blooming plants in power line corridors from 2013 to 2015. We calculated landscape composition surrounding sites at multiple scales and gathered bee trait information from the literature. We assessed differences in bee communities owing to landscape context with generalized linear models. Results We collected 125 wild bee species and observed a rare plant-pollinator relationship within power line corridors. We found greater bee abundance and species richness throughout a complex, resource-rich landscape, while mass-flowering lowbush blueberry fields enhanced bee species richness only in a simple, resource-poor landscape. Landscape composition and blooming plant diversity varied with landscape context, though only landscape composition influenced bee communities. Solitary and ground-nesting species were more sensitive to landscape context than social or cavity-nesting species. Conclusions Power line corridors provide crucial refugia for crop pollinating wild bees in agricultural landscapes with resource-poor natural habitat, while bees may selectively forage in power line corridors within agricultural landscapes containing resource-rich natural habitat. We found high-quality forage within corridors; quantifying nesting resources could clarify corridor use by wild bees.

Maine↗

Estimates of ground-water recharge rates for two small basins in central Nevada

Estimates of ground-water recharge rates developed from hydrologic modeling studies are presented for 3-Springs and East Stewart basins. two small basins (analog sites) located in central Nevada. The analog-site studies were conducted to aid in the estimation of recharge to the paleohydrologic regime associated with ground water in the vicinity of Yucca Mountain under wetter climatic conditions. The two analog sites are located to the north and at higher elevations than Yucca Mountain, and the prevailing (current) climatic conditions at these sites is thought to be representative of the possible range of paleoclimatic conditions in the general area of Yucca Mountain during the Quaternary. Two independent modeling approaches were conducted at each of the analog sites using observed hydrologic data on precipitation, temperature, solar radiation stream discharge, and chloride-ion water chemistry for a 6-year study period (October 1986 through September 1992). Both models quantify the hydrologic water-balance equation and yield estimates of ground-water recharge, given appropriate input data. The first model uses a traditional approach to quantify watershed hydrology through a precipitation-runoff modeling system that accounts for the spatial variability of hydrologic inputs, processes, and responses (outputs) using a dailycomputational time step. The second model is based on the conservative nature of the dissolved chloride ion in selected hydrologic environments, and its use as a natural tracer allows the computation of acoupled, water and chloride-ion, mass-balance system of equations to estimate available water (sum ofsurface runoff and groundwater recharge). Results of the modeling approaches support the conclusion that reasonable estimates of average-annual recharge to ground water range from about 1 to 3 centimeters per year for 3-Springs basin (the drier site), and from about 30 to 32 centimeters per year for East Stewart basin (the wetter site). The most reliable results are those derived from a reduced form of the chloride-ion model because they reflect integrated, basinwide processes in terms of only three measured variables: precipitation amount, precipitation chemistry, and streamflow chemistry.

Nevada↗

Population viability and connectivity of the Louisiana black bear ( Ursus americanus luteolus )

In 1992, the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS) granted Ursus americanus luteolus (Louisiana black bear) threatened status under the U.S. Endangered Species Act of 1973, listing loss and fragmentation of habitat as the primary threats. A study was developed by the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the University of Tennessee, the Louisiana Department of Wildlife and Fisheries, and the USFWS to estimate demographic rates and genetic structure of Louisiana black bear populations; evaluate relations between environmental and anthropogenic factors and demographic, genetic, and movement characteristics of Louisiana black bear populations; and develop data-driven stochastic population projection models to assess long-term persistence of individual subpopulations and the overall black bear population in Louisiana. Data were collected with non-invasive DNA sampling, live capture, winter den visits, and radio monitoring from 2002 to 2012 in the four areas supporting breeding subpopulations in Louisiana: Tensas River Basin (TRB), Upper Atchafalaya River Basin (UARB), Lower Atchafalaya River Basin (LARB), and Three Rivers Complex (TRC). Bears were live trapped and radio collared in the TRB and TRC to estimate survival and reproductive rates, deterministic matrix models were used to estimate asymptotic growth rates, and stochastic population models were used to estimate long-term viability. DNA extracted from hair collected at baited, barbed-wire enclosures in the TRB, UARB, and LARB and capture-mark-recapture (CMR) analysis based on Bayesian hierarchical modeling methods were used to estimate apparent survival ( φ ), per capita recruitment ( γ ), abundance ( N ), realized growth rate ( λ ), and long-term viability. From 2002 to 2012, we radio monitored 86 adult females greater than (>) 2 years old within the TRB, and 43 adult females were monitored in the TRC. The mean annual survival rate estimate ranged from 0.97 to 0.99 for the TRB and from 0.93 to 0.97 for the TRC. Fecundity and yearling recruitment in the TRB were 0.47 and 0.15, respectively, whereas estimates for the TRC were 0.37 and 0.18. Depending on estimated carrying capacity, the strength of the density dependence, level of uncertainty, and the treatment of unresolved signals, persistence probabilities for the TRC subpopulation ranged from 0.295 to 0.999. Estimates of N for females in the TRB ranged from 140 to 163 during 2006–12 when detection heterogeneity was assumed to follow a logistic-normal distribution (Model 1) and from 133 to 158 when a 2-point finite mixture distribution was assumed (Model 2). Annual estimates of γ ranged from 0.00 to 0.16 and from 0 to 0.22, depending on the model, and estimates of φ ranged from 0.87 to 0.93 during that period. In the UARB, estimates of N for females ranged from 25 to 44 during the study period, regardless of heterogeneity model. Estimated γ ranged from 0.00 to 0.41, and φ ranged from 0.88 to 0.90 during that period. Estimated N for females in the LARB was from 78 to 97 from 2010 to 2012 based on Model 1 and from 68 to 84 based on Model 2. Estimates of γ were 0.00 for 2010–11 regardless of heterogeneity model and ranged from 0.24 to 0.31 for 2011–12, depending on the model assumptions. We estimated φ as 0.81 for 2010–11, and from 0.84 to 0.85 for 2011–12, depending on model assumptions. We estimated Φ as 0.81 for 2010–11, ranging and from 0.84 to 0.85 for 2011–12, depending on model assumptions. On the basis of vital rate estimates from Model 1 of the CMR analysis, probability of persistence over 100 years for the TRB population was >0.999, 0.975, and 0.958 for process-only, 50-percent (%) credible interval (CI), and 95% CI projections, respectively. Similarly, the probability of persistence based on Model 2 was >0.999, 0.982, and 0.958. For the UARB, probabilities of persistence based on Model 1 were >0.999, 0.971, and 0.958 for process-only, 50% CI, and 95% CI projections, respectively, and 0.993, 0.929, and 0.849 for Model 2. Using the telemetry and reproductive data from the TRC, probabilities of persistence were greater than or equal to 0.95 only for projections based on the most optimistic set of assumptions. Assuming that the dynamics of the TRB, TRC, and UARB populations were independent and using the most pessimistic population-specific persistence probabilities (that is, 0.958, 0.295, and 0.849, respectively), the overall probability of persistence for bears in that population system was 0.996. Genetic methods were used to estimate interchange and structure between subpopulations in Louisiana and in Minnesota (MINN); Mississippi (MISS); and the White River Basin (WRB), Arkansas. Results from the all-population and the WRB–TRB clustering analyses indicate at least five genetically distinct populations. The genetic clustering and migrant analyses combined with capture data provided direct evidence that interchange has occurred from the WRB to the TRB and MISS, from the TRB to MISS, from the UARB to the TRC, and from the TRC to the TRB. Indirect evidence that interchange occurred from the UARB to the TRC and from the UARB to the TRB by way of the TRC was documented. No evidence was found of interchange from any of the subpopulations to the WRB, UARB, or LARB. From April 2010 to April 2012, global positioning system (GPS) radio collars were placed on 8 female and 23 male bears ranging from 1 to 11 years of age to develop a step-selection function model to predict routes and rates of interchange. For both males and females, the probability of a step being selected increased as the distance to natural land cover and agriculture at the end of the step decreased and as distance from roads at the end of a step increased. Of 4,000 correlated random walks, the least potential interchange was between TRB and TRC and between UARB and LARB, but the relative potential for natural interchange between UARB and TRC was high. The step-selection model predicted that dispersals between the LARB and UARB populations were infrequent but possible for males and nearly nonexistent for females. No evidence of natural female dispersal between subpopulations has been documented thus far, which is also consistent with model predictions.

Louisiana↗

Effects of prey abundance, distribution, visual contrast and morphology on selection by a pelagic piscivore

Most predators eat only a subset of possible prey. However, studies evaluating diet selection rarely measure prey availability in a manner that accounts for temporal–spatial overlap with predators, the sensory mechanisms employed to detect prey, and constraints on prey capture. We evaluated the diet selection of cutthroat trout ( Oncorhynchus clarkii ) feeding on a diverse planktivore assemblage in Lake Washington to test the hypothesis that the diet selection of piscivores would reflect random (opportunistic) as opposed to non-random (targeted) feeding, after accounting for predator–prey overlap, visual detection and capture constraints. Diets of cutthroat trout were sampled in autumn 2005, when the abundance of transparent, age-0 longfin smelt ( Spirinchus thaleichthys ) was low, and 2006, when the abundance of smelt was nearly seven times higher. Diet selection was evaluated separately using depth-integrated and depth-specific (accounted for predator–prey overlap) prey abundance. The abundance of different prey was then adjusted for differences in detectability and vulnerability to predation to see whether these factors could explain diet selection. In 2005, cutthroat trout fed non-randomly by selecting against the smaller, transparent age-0 longfin smelt, but for the larger age-1 longfin smelt. After adjusting prey abundance for visual detection and capture, cutthroat trout fed randomly. In 2006, depth-integrated and depth-specific abundance explained the diets of cutthroat trout well, indicating random feeding. Feeding became non-random after adjusting for visual detection and capture. Cutthroat trout selected strongly for age-0 longfin smelt, but against similar sized threespine stickleback ( Gasterosteus aculeatus ) and larger age-1 longfin smelt in 2006. Overlap with juvenile sockeye salmon ( O. nerka ) was minimal in both years, and sockeye salmon were rare in the diets of cutthroat trout. The direction of the shift between random and non-random selection depended on the presence of a weak versus a strong year class of age-0 longfin smelt. These fish were easy to catch, but hard to see. When their density was low, poor detection could explain their rarity in the diet. When their density was high, poor detection was compensated by higher encounter rates with cutthroat trout, sufficient to elicit a targeted feeding response. The nature of the feeding selectivity of a predator can be highly dependent on fluctuations in the abundance and suitability of key prey.

Washington↗

Instream flow characterization of Upper Salmon River basin streams, central Idaho, 2005

Anadromous fish populations in the Columbia River Basin have plummeted in the last 100 years. This severe decline led to Federal listing of Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) and steelhead trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss) stocks as endangered or threatened under the Endangered Species Act (ESA) in the 1990s. Historically, the upper Salmon River Basin (upstream of the confluence with the Pahsimeroi River) in Idaho provided migration corridors and significant habitat for these ESA-listed species, in addition to the ESA-listed bull trout (Salvelinus confluentus). Human development has modified the original streamflow conditions in many streams in the upper Salmon River Basin. Summer streamflow modifications resulting from irrigation practices, have directly affected quantity and quality of fish habitat and also have affected migration and (or) access to suitable spawning and rearing habitat for these fish. As a result of these ESA listings and Action 149 of the Federal Columbia River Power System Biological Opinion of 2000, the Bureau of Reclamation was tasked to conduct streamflow characterization studies in the upper Salmon River Basin to clearly define habitat requirements for effective species management and habitat restoration. These studies include collection of habitat and streamflow information for the Physical Habitat Simulation System (PHABSIM) model, a widely applied method to determine relations between habitat and discharge requirements for various fish species and life stages. Model simulation results can be used by resource managers to guide habitat restoration efforts by evaluating potential fish habitat and passage improvements by increasing or decreasing streamflow. In 2005, instream flow characterization studies were completed on Big Boulder, Challis, Bear, Mill, and Morgan Creeks. Continuous streamflow data were recorded upstream of all diversions on Big Boulder. Instantaneous measurements of discharge were also made at selected sites. In addition, natural summer streamflows were estimated for each study site using regional regression equations. This report describes PHABSIM modeling results for bull trout, Chinook salmon, and steelhead trout during summer streamflows. Habitat/discharge relations were summarized for adult and spawning life stages at each study site. In addition, streamflow needs for riffle dwelling invertebrate taxa (Ephemeroptera, Plecoptera, and Trichoptera) are presented. Adult fish passage and discharge relations were evaluated at specific transects that were identified as potential low-streamflow passage barriers at each study site. Continuous summer water temperature data for selected study sites were summarized and compared with Idaho Water Quality Standards and various water temperature requirements of targeted fish species. Results of these habitat studies can be used to prioritize and direct cost-effective actions to improve fish habitat for ESA-listed anadromous and native fish species in the basin. These actions may include acquiring water during critical low-flow periods by leasing or modifying irrigation delivery systems to minimize out-of-stream diversions.

Idaho↗

Topographic and bathymetric survey in support of the effectiveness assessment of the living shoreline restoration in Gandys Beach, New Jersey

High resolution topobathymetric field surveys were conducted by the U.S. Geological Survey in collaboration with Northeastern University and in cooperation with the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service and The Nature Conservancy in a selected shoreline along Gandys Beach, New Jersey, from January to April 2018. These data are a critical model input for hydrodynamic and wave models and can affect the accuracy of model outputs such as wave height, water surface elevation, current velocity, and sediment transport. Gandys Beach is a living shoreline where constructed oyster reefs (CORs) were built to protect the shoreline and enhance habitat for oyster and other species. Because of the complex topography and bathymetry of the study area, higher spatial resolution topobathymetric data are required to resolve the vertical variations near the CORs. During the field survey, the global navigation satellite system positioning method was used to establish the elevation of a benchmark referenced to the North American Vertical Datum of 1988. The topobathymetric data were collected using a total station. Horizontal accuracy of plus or minus 0.05 foot (ft) and vertical accuracy of plus or minus 0.10 ft were calculated using root mean square error between duplicate surveys. Two existing datasets were integrated with the survey data to create an updated topobathymetric dataset for model input and analysis: (1) the U.S. Geological Survey Coastal National Elevation Database 1-meter resolution data developed after Hurricane Sandy and (2) The Nature Conservancy 2017 elevation monitoring data at 10-meter resolution. A root mean square error analysis comparing survey data with the new topobathymetric dataset versus the survey data compared to the original Coastal National Elevation Data dataset showed errors of 0.31 and 2.61 ft, respectively. This improved dataset can be used for wave and hydrodynamic modeling in support of the effectiveness assessment of the CORs and living shoreline restoration along Gandys Beach.

New Jersey↗

Evaluation of mean-monthly streamflow-regression equations for Colorado, 2014

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Colorado Water Conservation Board, evaluated the predictive uncertainty of mean-monthly streamflow-regression equations representative of natural streamflow conditions in Colorado. This study evaluates the predictive uncertainty of mean-monthly streamflow-regression equations developed in a 2009 U.S. Geological Survey study using streamflow data collected over the entire period of record at each streamgage through calendar year 2013. The study area for this report is limited to the Mountain, Northwest, Rio Grande, and Southwest hydrologic regions of Colorado. Data collected from the beginning of the period of record through calendar year 2013 were used to evaluate the mean-monthly streamflow equations using the same basin characteristics as in the 2009 study. U.S. Geological Survey and Colorado Division of Water Resources streamgages with at least 10 years of streamflow record and identified as representative of natural streamflow conditions were selected for this study. During the streamgage selection process, a total of 432 streamgages, composed of 278 from the 2009 study and 154 new streamgages, were identified. The updated standard error of prediction and adjusted coefficient of determination values that correspond to the mean-monthly streamflow equations developed in the 2009 study are in close agreement with the results of this study. The old streamgages performed slightly better than the new streamgages, with approximately 88 and 85 percent of the data within the prediction intervals, respectively. This result was expected because the streamgages used to develop the regression equations should yield a better performance than the new streamgages. For all hydrologic regions, approximately 87 percent of the data are within the 95-percent prediction intervals. The explanation for why fewer than 95 percent of the data are within the prediction intervals is that the data do not conform perfectly to the regression assumptions required to accurately estimate performance metrics. The equations for the Rio Grande hydrologic region had the best fit with the parametric prediction-interval assumptions, with approximately 91.8 percent of the data within the prediction interval (average 12 months). The Mountain, Northwest, and Southwest hydrologic regions had 87.8, 84.9, and 83.5 percent of the data contained within the prediction interval, respectively. Monthly adjusted coefficient of determination values were computed and have the same general pattern for all four hydrologic regions. The largest values usually occur in March or April, and the lowest values usually occur in August or September. Only the Rio Grande hydrologic region deviates from this seasonal pattern, exhibiting a decrease in adjusted coefficient of determination values in August and September, with the lowest values occurring in the winter months (December, January, and February). Generally, the adjusted coefficient of determination values for this report are just slightly less (0.76 compared to 0.79) than the values computed in the 2009 study. The similarity of values, even when tested with data not used to originally develop the mean-monthly streamflow-regression equations, provides confidence that the predictive uncertainty of mean-monthly regression equations in the 2009 study are accurate. The fact that the results for the two datasets are very similar provides assurance that when these equations are applied to locations not used to develop the equations, the standard error of prediction and adjusted-coefficient of determination error metrics should be similar to those established in the 2009 study for locations with natural streamflow. The median absolute differences between the observed and computed mean-monthly streamflow for Mountain, Northwest, and Southwest hydrologic regions are fairly uniform throughout the year, with the exception of late summer and early fall (July, August, and September), when each hydrologic region exhibits a substantial increase in median absolute percent difference. The greatest difference occurs in the Northwest hydrologic region, and the smallest difference occurs in the Mountain hydrologic region. The Rio Grande hydrologic region shows seasonal variation in median absolute percent difference with March, April, August, and September having a median absolute difference near or below 40 percent, and the remaining months of the year having a median absolute difference near or above 50 percent. In the Mountain, Northwest, and Southwest hydrologic regions, the mean-monthly streamflow equations perform the best during spring (March, April, and May). However, in the Rio Grande hydrologic region, the mean-monthly streamflow equations perform the best during late summer and early fall (August and September).

Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico, Utah, Wyoming↗

Use of gene-expression programming to estimate Manning’s roughness coefficient for high gradient streams

Manning’s roughness coefficient ( n ) has been widely used in the estimation of flood discharges or depths of flow in natural channels. Therefore, the selection of appropriate Manning’s n values is of paramount importance for hydraulic engineers and hydrologists and requires considerable experience, although extensive guidelines are available. Generally, the largest source of error in post-flood estimates (termed indirect measurements) is due to estimates of Manning’s n values, particularly when there has been minimal field verification of flow resistance. This emphasizes the need to improve methods for estimating n values. The objective of this study was to develop a soft computing model in the estimation of the Manning’s n values using 75 discharge measurements on 21 high gradient streams in Colorado, USA. The data are from high gradient (S > 0.002 m/m), cobble- and boulder-bed streams for within bank flows. This study presents Gene-Expression Programming (GEP), an extension of Genetic Programming (GP), as an improved approach to estimate Manning’s roughness coefficient for high gradient streams. This study uses field data and assessed the potential of gene-expression programming (GEP) to estimate Manning’s n values. GEP is a search technique that automatically simplifies genetic programs during an evolutionary processes (or evolves) to obtain the most robust computer program (e.g., simplify mathematical expressions, decision trees, polynomial constructs, and logical expressions). Field measurements collected by Jarrett (J Hydraulic Eng ASCE 110: 1519–1539, 1984 ) were used to train the GEP network and evolve programs. The developed network and evolved programs were validated by using observations that were not involved in training. GEP and ANN-RBF (artificial neural network-radial basis function) models were found to be substantially more effective (e.g., R 2 for testing/validation of GEP and RBF-ANN is 0.745 and 0.65, respectively) than Jarrett’s (J Hydraulic Eng ASCE 110: 1519–1539, 1984 ) equation (R 2 for testing/validation equals 0.58) in predicting the Manning’s n .

Water Resources Management↗

Fire in the Cape Region of South Africa

South Africa's mediterranean-type climate (MTC) region is the smallest of the five MTC regions, centered in the southwestern corner of the Western Cape Province (Fig. 7.1). This Cape region is dominated by fynbos shrublands (see Fig. 1.6e) but this fynbos biome continues eastward far outside the MTC. The Cape region is unusual in that shrublands dominate under climate regimes that also support forests. Entire landscapes can support alternative ecosystem states. Even the semi-arid areas can support entirely different vegetation: fire-prone shrublands or fire-resistant broadleaf thickets. Perhaps more than any other MTC region, fire plays a central role in determining major vegetation patterns of winter rainfall regions of South Africa. Soils are also thought to be of major importance since much of the Cape's MTC region is on nutrient-poor sandy soils (see Fig. 1.5). A complex interplay between soils, fire and climate and, in the east, large mammal herbivory, determines boundaries of major biomes. The Cape Floristic Region is extremely rich in species with very high levels of endemism (Linder 2003). It is the world's richest temperate flora and is largely restricted to fire-prone ecosystems (Cowling et al . 1996; Linder 2003). So, contrary to the widely held popular belief that fires are an anthropogenic disturbance (e.g. Pillans 1924; Axelrod 1980), or merely incidental to this formation (Hopper 2009), a rich endemic flora has evolved in the Cape whose members are overwhelmingly fire dependent, implying a long history of natural fires as a selective force. Major Vegetation Patterns This chapter discusses fire regimes in the Cape region, what little is known of their determinants, and how they influence major vegetation patterns in the region. Though a large number of studies have explored plant responses to fire (reviewed by Bond 1997; Cowling et al . 1997a), these are heavily biased toward fynbos shrublands, the dominant vegetation cover of the region (Fig. 7.2). Fire responses of species belonging to other vegetation types are poorly known. Yet the existence of these other vegetation types is one of the central conundrums of the Cape region. It implies failure of climate alone to explain apparent convergence with other MTC regions (Chapter 1). For example, low shrublands would be expected in deserts replaced, as rainfall progressively increases, by taller shrublands, woodlands and then forests. But this is clearly not the case in the Cape region. The dominant fynbos vegetation shows very little variation in aboveground biomass from arid desert fringes (mean annual precipitation ~250 mm) to rain-drenched high-altitude heathlands (> 3000 mm) (Fig. 7.3). Yet across the entire rainfall gradient fynbos co-occurs with alternative ecosystems with much greater woody biomass. These broadleaf thickets and forests have an entirely different floristic and functional composition and often are restricted to isolated fire-protected refugia (Fig. 7.2; Taylor 1978; Kruger 1979; Cowling et al . 2005; Rebelo et al . 2006). The implication is that apparent convergence of shrubby fynbos growth forms with other MTC plant communities cannot be understood in terms of climate alone and that one needs to think in terms of the climate, fire, geology filter (see Fig. 1.4).

Cape region↗

Effects of seasonal operation on the quality of water produced by public-supply wells

Seasonal variability in groundwater pumping is common in many places, but resulting effects of seasonal pumping stress on the quality of water produced by public-supply wells are not thoroughly understood. Analysis of historical water-quality samples from public-supply wells completed in deep basin-fill aquifers in Modesto, California (134 wells) and Albuquerque, New Mexico (95 wells) indicates that several wells have seasonal variability in concentrations of contaminants of concern. In Modesto, supply wells are more likely to produce younger groundwater with higher nitrate and uranium concentrations during the summer (high) pumping season than during the winter (low) pumping season. In Albuquerque, supply wells are more likely to produce older groundwater with higher arsenic concentrations during the winter pumping season than during the summer pumping season. Seasonal variability in contaminant concentrations in Modesto is influenced primarily by effects of summer pumping on vertical hydraulic gradients that drive migration of shallow groundwater through the aquifer to supply wells. Variability in Albuquerque is influenced primarily by the period of time that a supply well is idle, allowing its wellbore to act as a conduit for vertical groundwater flow and contaminant migration. However, both processes are observed in each study area. Similar findings would appear to be likely in other alluvial basins with stratified water quality and substantial vertical head gradients. Results suggest that even in aquifers dominated by old groundwater, changes to seasonal pumping patterns and/or to depth of well completion can help reduce vulnerability to selected contaminants of either natural or anthropogenic origin.

Groundwater↗

Digital models of ground-water flow in the Cape Cod aquifer system, Massachusetts

The Cape Cod aquifer system was simulated with three-dimensional finite-difference ground-water-flow models. Five areas were modeled to provide tools that can be used to evaluate the hydrologic impacts of regional water development and waste disposal. The model boundaries were selected to represent the natural hydrologic boundaries of the aquifer. The boundary between fresh and saline ground water is treated as an interface along which there is no dispersion. The saline-water zone is treated as static (nonflowing). Comparisons of calculated and observed values of head, position of the boundary between fresh and saline water, and ground-water discharge at locations where data are available indicate that the simulated ground-water reservoirs generally agree with field conditions. Model analyses indicate that the total steady-state freshwater-flow rate through the five modeled areas is approximately 412 cubic feet per second.

Massachusetts↗

A revised logistic regression equation and an automated procedure for mapping the probability of a stream flowing perennially in Massachusetts

A revised logistic regression equation and an automated procedure were developed for mapping the probability of a stream flowing perennially in Massachusetts. The equation provides city and town conservation commissions and the Massachusetts Department of Environmental Protection a method for assessing whether streams are intermittent or perennial at a specific site in Massachusetts by estimating the probability of a stream flowing perennially at that site. This information could assist the environmental agencies who administer the Commonwealth of Massachusetts Rivers Protection Act of 1996, which establishes a 200-foot-wide protected riverfront area extending from the mean annual high-water line along each side of a perennial stream, with exceptions for some urban areas. The equation was developed by relating the observed intermittent or perennial status of a stream site to selected basin characteristics of naturally flowing streams (defined as having no regulation by dams, surface-water withdrawals, ground-water withdrawals, diversion, wastewater discharge, and so forth) in Massachusetts. This revised equation differs from the equation developed in a previous U.S. Geological Survey study in that it is solely based on visual observations of the intermittent or perennial status of stream sites across Massachusetts and on the evaluation of several additional basin and land-use characteristics as potential explanatory variables in the logistic regression analysis. The revised equation estimated more accurately the intermittent or perennial status of the observed stream sites than the equation from the previous study. Stream sites used in the analysis were identified as intermittent or perennial based on visual observation during low-flow periods from late July through early September 2001. The database of intermittent and perennial streams included a total of 351 naturally flowing (no regulation) sites, of which 85 were observed to be intermittent and 266 perennial. Stream sites included in the database had drainage areas that ranged from 0.04 to 10.96 square miles. Of the 66 stream sites with drainage areas greater than 2.00 square miles, 2 sites were intermittent and 64 sites were perennial. Thus, stream sites with drainage areas greater than 2.00 square miles were assumed to flow perennially, and the database used to develop the logistic regression equation included only those stream sites with drainage areas less than 2.00 square miles. The database for the equation included 285 stream sites that had drainage areas less than 2.00 square miles, of which 83 sites were intermittent and 202 sites were perennial. Results of the logistic regression analysis indicate that the probability of a stream flowing perennially at a specific site in Massachusetts can be estimated as a function of four explanatory variables: (1) drainage area (natural logarithm), (2) areal percentage of sand and gravel deposits, (3) areal percentage of forest land, and (4) region of the state (eastern region or western region). Although the equation provides an objective means of determining the probability of a stream flowing perennially at a specific site, the reliability of the equation is constrained by the data used in its development. The equation is not recommended for (1) losing stream reaches or (2) streams whose ground-water contributing areas do not coincide with their surface-water drainage areas, such as many streams draining the Southeast Coastal Region-the southern part of the South Coastal Basin, the eastern part of the Buzzards Bay Basin, and the entire area of the Cape Cod and the Islands Basins. If the equation were used on a regulated stream site, the estimated intermittent or perennial status would reflect the natural flow conditions for that site. An automated mapping procedure was developed to determine the intermittent or perennial status of stream sites along reaches throughout a basin. The procedure delineates the drainage area boundaries, determines values for the four explanatory variables, and solves the equation for estimating the probability of a stream flowing perennially at two locations on a headwater (first-order) stream reach-one near its confluence or end point and one near its headwaters or start point. The automated procedure then determines the intermittent or perennial status of the reach on the basis of the calculated probability values and a probability cutpoint (a stream is considered to flow perennially at a cutpoint of 0.56 or greater for this study) for the two locations or continues to loop upstream or downstream between locations less than and greater than the cutpoint of 0.56 to determine the transition point from an intermittent to a perennial stream. If the first-order stream reach is determined to be intermittent, the procedure moves to the next downstream reach and repeats the same process. The automated procedure then moves to the next first-order stream and repeats the process until the entire basin is mapped. A map of the intermittent and perennial stream reaches in the Shawsheen River Basin is provided on a CD-ROM that accompanies this report. The CD-ROM also contains ArcReader 9.0, a freeware product, that allows a user to zoom in and out, set a scale, pan, turn on and off map layers (such as a USGS topographic map), and print a map of the stream site with a scale bar. Maps of the intermittent and perennial stream reaches in Massachusetts will provide city and town conservation commissions and the Massachusetts Department of Environmental Protection with an additional method for assessing the intermittent or perennial status of stream sites.

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