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USGS2010

Ecological models supporting environmental decision making: A strategy for the future

Ecological models are important for environmental decision support because they allow the consequences of alternative policies and management scenarios to be explored. However, current modeling practice is unsatisfactory. A literature review shows that the elements of good modeling practice have long been identified but are widely ignored. The reasons for this might include lack of involvement of decision makers, lack of incentives for modelers to follow good practice, and the use of inconsistent terminologies. As a strategy for the future, we propose a standard format for documenting models and their analyses: transparent and comprehensive ecological modeling (TRACE) documentation. This standard format will disclose all parts of the modeling process to scrutiny and make modeling itself more efficient and coherent.

Trends in Ecology and Evolution↗

USGS2026

Fifty years of riverine harmful algal bloom modeling: A global synthesis of approaches, challenges, and opportunities

This systematic literature review critically examines 162 articles on harmful algal bloom (HAB) modeling in riverine systems to uncover persistent gaps, redefine critical challenges, and propose trackable opportunities to advance future modeling efforts. Articles largely focused on site-specific applications (93%) across more than 80 rivers worldwide. Most modeled systems were large, eutrophic rivers with flow modifications or obstructions. Geographic clustering of modeled systems was pronounced, with South Korea accounting for 26% of articles, followed by Europe (25%), United States (21%), and China (12%). Modeling approaches were led by process-based models (59%), though use of data-driven models (37%) increased over time, reflecting advances in computing and monitoring technology. Modeling endpoints varied widely across the articles with many focused on gross measures of algal abundance and fewer representing more refined endpoints like algal toxins or community composition. Furthermore, inconsistent units and taxonomic resolution hindered comparability between models. Datasets used for model development and calibration typically spanned 5 years, with weekly to monthly sampling at 1–10 sites, though durations and site counts were positively skewed. Quantitative metrics of model skill were often absent and included a diverse set of metrics when reported. Across all models, nutrients, light availability, streamflow, algal physiological processes, and water temperature emerged as key predictors, though algal processes were rarely incorporated in data-driven models. Scenario analyses primarily were conducted with process-based models and addressed flow management, whereas forecasting applications were less common and typically used data-driven models. After almost 50 years of riverine HAB modeling, persistent challenges include underrepresentation of benthic habitats, neglect of side-channel and backwater influences, insufficient documentation of river features, and weak linkages between modeled endpoints and potential harms. Addressing these gaps through reporting of contextual information, models from other aquatic settings, benchmark datasets, and community-driven tools could advance riverine HAB modeling towards increased transferability and ultimately operational forecasts.

Water Research↗

USGS2000

Contaminant exposure and effects: Terrestrial vertebrates database: Trends and data gaps for Atlantic Coast estuaries

In order to examine the condition of biota in Atlantic coast estuaries, "Contaminant Exposure and Effects—Terrestrial Vertebrates" database (CEE-TV) has been compiled through computerized search of published literature, review of existing databases, and solicitation of unpublished reports from conservation agencies, private groups, and universities. Summary information has been entered into the database, including species, collection date (1965–present), site coordinates, estuary name, hydrologic unit code, sample matrix, contaminant concentrations, biomarker and bioindicator responses, and reference source, utilizing a 98-field character and numeric format. Currently, the CEE-TV database contains 3699 geo-referenced records representing 190 vertebrate species and >140,000 individuals residing in estuaries from Maine through Florida. This relational database can be directly queried or imported into a Geographic Information System to examine spatial patterns, identify data gaps and areas of concern, generate hypotheses, and focus ecotoxicological field assessments. Information on birds made up the vast majority (83%) of the database, with only a modicum of data on amphibians (<0.1%). Of the >75,000 chemical compounds in commerce, only 118 commonly measured environmental contaminants were quantified in tissues of terrestrial vertebrates. There were no CEE-TV data records in 15 of the 67 estuaries located along the Atlantic coast and Florida Gulf coast. The CEE-TV database has a number of potential applications including focusing biomonitoring efforts to generate critically needed ecotoxicological data in the numerous "gaps" along the coast, reducing uncertainty about contaminant risk, identifying areas for mitigation, restoration or special management, and ranking ecological conditions of estuaries.

Environmental Monitoring and Assessment↗

USGS2004

Urbanization impacts on the structure and function of forested wetlands

The exponential increase in population has fueled a significant demographic shift: 60% of the Earth's population will live in urban areas by 2030. While this population growth is significant in its magnitude, the ecological footprint of natural resource consumption and use required to sustain urban populations is even greater. The land use and cover changes accompanying urbanization (increasing human habitation coupled with resource consumption and extensive landscape modification) impacts natural ecosystems at multiple spatial scales. Because they generally occupy lower landscape positions and are linked to other ecosystems through hydrologic connections, the cascading effects of habitat alteration on watershed hydrology and nutrient cycling are particularly detrimental to wetland ecosystems. I reviewed literature relevant to these effects of urbanization on the structure and function of forested wetlands. Hydrologic changes caused by habitat fragmentation generally reduce species richness and abundance of plants, macroinvertebrates, amphibians, and birds with greater numbers of invasives and exotics. Reduction in soil saturation and lowered water tables result in greater nitrogen mineralization and nitrification in urban wetlands with higher probability of NO − 3 export from the watershed. Depressional forested wetlands in urban areas can function as important sinks for sediments, nutrients, and metals. As urban ecosystems become the predominant human condition, there is a critical need for data specific to urban forested wetlands in order to better understand the role of these ecosystems on the landscape.

Urban Ecosystems↗

USGS2012

Organic carbon burial rates in mangrove sediments: strengthening the global budget

Mangrove wetlands exist in the transition zone between terrestrial and marine environments and as such were historically overlooked in discussions of terrestrial and marine carbon cycling. In recent decades, mangroves have increasingly been credited with producing and burying large quantities of organic carbon (OC). The amount of available data regarding OC burial in mangrove soils has more than doubled since the last primary literature review (2003). This includes data from some of the largest, most developed mangrove forests in the world, providing an opportunity to strengthen the global estimate. First-time representation is now included for mangroves in Brazil, Colombia, Malaysia, Indonesia, China, Japan, Vietnam, and Thailand, along with additional data from Mexico and the United States. Our objective is to recalculate the centennial-scale burial rate of OC at both the local and global scales. Quantification of this rate enables better understanding of the current carbon sink capacity of mangroves as well as helps to quantify and/or validate the other aspects of the mangrove carbon budget such as import, export, and remineralization. Statistical analysis of the data supports use of the geometric mean as the most reliable central tendency measurement. Our estimate is that mangrove systems bury 163 (+40; -31) g OC m -2 yr -1 (95% C.I.). Globally, the 95% confidence interval for the annual burial rate is 26.1 (+6.3; -5.1) Tg OC. This equates to a burial fraction that is 42% larger than that of the most recent mangrove carbon budget (2008), and represents 10–15% of estimated annual mangrove production. This global rate supports previous conclusions that, on a centennial time scale, 8–15% of all OC burial in marine settings occurs in mangrove systems.

Global Biogeochemical Cycles↗

USGS2024

Social vulnerability and water insecurity in the western US: A systematic review of framings, indicators, and uncertainty

Water insecurity poses a complex challenge for the western United States. Large populations are exposed and susceptible to physical and social factors that can leave them with precarious access to sufficient water supplies. Consideration of social issues by water managers can help ensure equitable supply. However, how social factors affect water insecurity conditions remains unclear. This paper reviews literature on how social vulnerability influences water insecurity in the western United States. Through a meta-analysis, indicators measuring how dimensions of social vulnerability influence water insecurity were classified and hierarchical clustering was used to characterize the relationships among these vulnerability dimensions for the largest water-users—the agricultural and municipal sectors. The study then assessed uncertainty associated with social vulnerability dimensions and their indicators. There is greatest evidence for the influence of demographic characteristics, socioeconomic status, and exposure. Indicators of these determinants were mainly significant and exacerbated conditions of water insecurity. Evidence for indicators of social dependence and special needs populations was limited, although studies assessing these factors showed significant agreement on their influence on water insecurity. Conceptual framings of social vulnerability and water security determined which indicators were measured, whereas studies of the water-use sectors focused on differing associations of social vulnerability. These findings indicate the importance of recognizing the different contexts posed by water-use sectors and diverse conceptual framings. Further, some determinants such as living conditions remain important but underexplored drivers of a community's experience of water insecurity. Understanding the uncertainty associated with these measures has implications to equitable decision making.

Water Resources Research↗

USGS2009

Use of land surface remotely sensed satellite and airborne data for environmental exposure assessment in cancer research

In recent years, geographic information systems (GIS) have increasingly been used for reconstructing individual-level exposures to environmental contaminants in epidemiological research. Remotely sensed data can be useful in creating space-time models of environmental measures. The primary advantage of using remotely sensed data is that it allows for study at the local scale (e.g., residential level) without requiring expensive, time-consuming monitoring campaigns. The purpose of our study was to identify how land surface remotely sensed data are currently being used to study the relationship between cancer and environmental contaminants, focusing primarily on agricultural chemical exposure assessment applications. We present the results of a comprehensive literature review of epidemiological research where remotely sensed imagery or land cover maps derived from remotely sensed imagery were applied. We also discuss the strengths and limitations of the most commonly used imagery data (aerial photographs and Landsat satellite imagery) and land cover maps.

Journal of Exposure Science and Environmental Epid↗

USGS2024

Aligning renewable energy expansion with climate-driven range shifts

Fossil fuel dependence can be reduced, in part, by renewable energy expansion. Increasingly, renewable energy siting seeks to avoid significant impacts on biodiversity but rarely considers how species ranges will shift under climate change. Here we undertake a systematic literature review on the topic and overlay future renewable energy siting maps with the ranges of two threatened species under future climate scenarios to highlight this potential conflict.

Nature Climate Change↗

USGS2020

FiCli, the Fish and Climate Change Database, informs climate adaptation and management for freshwater fishes

Inland fishes provide important ecosystem services to communities worldwide and are especially vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. Fish respond to climate change in diverse and nuanced ways, which creates challenges for practitioners of fish conservation, climate change adaptation, and management. Although climate change is known to affect fish globally, a comprehensive online, public database of how climate change has impacted inland fishes worldwide and adaptation or management practices that may address these impacts does not exist. We conducted an extensive, systematic primary literature review to identify peer-reviewed journal publications describing projected and documented examples of climate change impacts on inland fishes. From this standardized Fi sh and Cli mate Change database, FiCli (pronounced fick-lee), researchers and managers can query fish families, species, response types, or geographic locations to obtain summary information on inland fish responses to climate change and recommended management actions. The FiCli database is updatable and provides access to comprehensive published information to inform inland fish conservation and adaptation planning in a changing climate.

Scientific Data↗

USGS2008

Reforestation of bottomland hardwoods and the issue of woody species diversity

Bottomland hardwood forests in the southcentral United States have been cleared extensively for agriculture, and many of the remaining forests are fragmented and degraded. During the last decade, however, approximately 75,000 ha of land-mainly agricultural fields-have been replanted or contracted for replanting, with many more acres likely to be reforested in the near future. The approach used in most reforestation projects to date has been to plant one to three overstory tree species, usually Quercus spp. (oaks), and to rely on natural dispersal for the establishment of other woody species. I critique this practice by two means. First, a brief literature review demonstrates that moderately high woody species diversity occurs in natural bottomland hardwood forests in the region. This review, which relates diversity to site characteristics, serves as a basis for comparison with stands established by means of current reforestation practices. Second, I reevaluate data on the invasion of woody species from an earlier study of 10 reforestation projects in Mississippi,with the goal of assessing the likelihood that stands with high woody species diversity will develop. I show that natural invasion cannot always be counted on to produce a diverse stand, particularly on sites more than about 60 m from an existing forest edge. I then make several recommendations for altering current reforestation pactices in order to establish stands with greater woody species diversity, a more natural appearance,and a more positive environmental impact at scales larger than individual sites.

Restoration Ecology↗

USGS2016

Anticipating environmental and environmental-health implications of extreme storms: ARkStorm scenario

The ARkStorm Scenario predicts that a prolonged winter storm event across California would cause extreme precipitation, flooding, winds, physical damages, and economic impacts. This study uses a literature review and geographic information system-based analysis of national and state databases to infer how and where ARkStorm could cause environmental damages, release contamination from diverse natural and anthropogenic sources, affect ecosystem and human health, and cause economic impacts from environmental-remediation, liability, and health-care costs. Examples of plausible ARkStorm environmental and health concerns include complex mixtures of contaminants such as petroleum, mercury, asbestos, persistent organic pollutants, molds, and pathogens; adverse physical and contamination impacts on riverine and coastal marine ecosystems; and increased incidences of mold-related health concerns, some vector-borne diseases, and valley fever. Coastal cities, the San Francisco Bay area, the Sacramento-San Joaquin River Delta, parts of the Central Valley, and some mountainous areas would likely be most affected. This type of screening analysis, coupled with follow-up local assessments, can help stakeholders in California and disaster-prone areas elsewhere better plan for, mitigate, and respond to future environmental disasters.

Natural Hazards Review↗

USGS2022

Assessing human resources development in volcano observatories using the knowledge, attitude, and practice survey

The purpose of this study was to assess the role played by the International Training Course, given by the Center for the Study of Active Volcanoes (CSAV) at the University of Hawai’i at Hilo, in the development of human resources for volcano observatory staff around the world. The study design included a literature review, interviews with representatives from 10 national volcano observatories, and electronic surveys designed and conducted by Florida International University, targeting graduates of training courses sponsored by the Volcano Disaster Assistance Program (VDAP), a cooperative partnership between the US Agency for International Development (USAID) and the US Geological Survey (USGS). The knowledge, attitude, and practice (KAP) method was used to develop a survey and a composite KAP index. Of the 92 individuals who answered the survey, 47 had completed the CSAV course. Two groups were formed from the survey respondents: (1) 47 people who were CSAV graduates; and (2) 45 people who did not take CSAV training. An independent samples t "> t t test and a one-way multivariate analysis were conducted to compare the KAP index and the three subindices. The heads of the volcano observatories identified the CSAV International Training as one of the most useful educational offerings relevant to volcano observatory operations available worldwide. The statistical analysis showed significant differences in the KAP index, knowledge subindex, and practice subindex between the two study groups. Results indicate that CSAV graduates are in a better position to attain self-sufficiency in studying and monitoring volcanoes, and by doing so, contribute more effectively to mitigation efforts for volcanic unrest and eruptions.

Natural Hazards Review↗

USGS2025

Using DNA barcoding to evaluate freshwater mussel and fish-host relationships in the Flint River (Georgia, USA)

Freshwater mussels have a unique life history in which larval mussels (glochidia) act as obligate parasites to fish hosts. Host selectivity may be species specific, and identification of host fish is a critical step in conservation planning for individual mussel species. The Flint River harbors ~23% of the freshwater mussel (order Unionida) diversity in the state of Georgia, USA. Nine species in the basin are state or federally listed, and local diversity is threatened by shifting hydrologic conditions, increasing habitat loss, and sedimentation. However, knowledge on host species is lacking for nearly 40% of mussel species in the Flint River, limiting the efforts of conservation managers. In this study, we assessed the use of host fish by mussels by identifying the species of naturally encysted mussel larvae and transformed juveniles found on wild-caught fishes. Infested fishes were collected in the summers of 2021 and 2022 and held in laboratory conditions. Glochidia and juvenile mussels were collected as they excised from live hosts and were identified by DNA barcoding with the cytochrome oxidase c subunit I locus. Twenty-eight unique mussel–host relationships were identified, 27 of which were considered novel when cross-referenced to the existing mussel–host databases and peer-reviewed literature. Our data build upon knowledge of host use in unionids and further demonstrate the importance of understanding patterns in wild host use.

Georgia↗

USGS2012

The footprint of Alaskan tundra fires during the past half-century: implications for surface properties and radiative forcing

Recent large and frequent fires above the Alaskan arctic circle have forced a reassessment of the ecological and climatological importance of fire in arctic tundra ecosystems. Here we provide a general overview of the occurrence, distribution, and ecological and climate implications of Alaskan tundra fires over the past half-century using spatially explicit climate, fire, vegetation and remote sensing datasets for Alaska. Our analyses highlight the importance of vegetation biomass and environmental conditions in regulating tundra burning, and demonstrate that most tundra ecosystems are susceptible to burn, providing the environmental conditions are right. Over the past two decades, fire perimeters above the arctic circle have increased in size and importance, especially on the North Slope, indicating that future wildfire projections should account for fire regime changes in these regions. Remote sensing data and a literature review of thaw depths indicate that tundra fires have both positive and negative implications for climatic feedbacks including a decadal increase in albedo radiative forcing immediately after a fire, a stimulation of surface greenness and a persistent long-term (>10 year) increase in thaw depth. In order to address the future impact of tundra fires on climate, a better understanding of the control of tundra fire occurrence as well as the long-term impacts on ecosystem carbon cycling will be required.

Alaska↗

USGS2018

Uncertainty in United States coastal wetland greenhouse gas inventorying

Coastal wetlands store carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) and emit CO 2 and methane (CH 4 ) making them an important part of greenhouse gas (GHG) inventorying. In the contiguous United States (CONUS), a coastal wetland inventory was recently calculated by combining maps of wetland type and change with soil, biomass, and CH 4 flux data from a literature review. We assess uncertainty in this developing carbon monitoring system to quantify confidence in the inventory process itself and to prioritize future research. We provide a value-added analysis by defining types and scales of uncertainty for assumptions, burial and emissions datasets, and wetland maps, simulating 10 000 iterations of a simplified version of the inventory, and performing a sensitivity analysis. Coastal wetlands were likely a source of net-CO 2 -equivalent (CO 2 e) emissions from 2006–2011. Although stable estuarine wetlands were likely a CO 2 e sink, this effect was counteracted by catastrophic soil losses in the Gulf Coast, and CH 4 emissions from tidal freshwater wetlands. The direction and magnitude of total CONUS CO 2 e flux were most sensitive to uncertainty in emissions and burial data, and assumptions about how to calculate the inventory. Critical data uncertainties included CH 4 emissions for stable freshwater wetlands and carbon burial rates for all coastal wetlands. Critical assumptions included the average depth of soil affected by erosion events, the method used to convert CH 4 fluxes to CO 2 e, and the fraction of carbon lost to the atmosphere following an erosion event. The inventory was relatively insensitive to mapping uncertainties. Future versions could be improved by collecting additional data, especially the depth affected by loss events, and by better mapping salinity and inundation gradients relevant to key GHG fluxes.

Environmental Research Letters↗

USGS2025

Sustaining Namāēw (Lake Sturgeon): Partner-led climate adaptation for Indigenous fisheries in the Laurentian Great Lakes

Namāēw (Menominee; Lake Sturgeon Acipenser fulvescens ) have long supported Indigenous culture and food sovereignty but have declined by over 80% in the Laurentian Great Lakes, exacerbating their sensitivity to climate change. Following interest from Indigenous leaders, we initiated a partnership-driven effort to (1) assess climate effects and (2) develop potential adaptation options for Namāēw using a participatory, transdisciplinary approach that combines multiple ways of knowing. Through a literature review and nine semistructured conversations with officials from Indigenous Nations and organizations in the Great Lakes, we identified central themes including access, culture, and fish persistence. Other concerns included habitat, food web shifts, and water quality. Prominent adaptation themes involved population assessments, stocking, regulations, habitat restoration, interagency coordination, and cultural advocacy. These findings underscore the importance of partnership-driven research to support Indigenous fisheries through knowledge coproduction and equitable adaptation. Our approach provides a model to inform stewardship planning for fisheries that are facing global change.

Laurentian Great Lakes↗

USGS2014

Mechanisms driving recruitment variability in fish: comparisons between the Laurentian Great Lakes and marine systems

In his seminal work, Hjort (in Fluctuations in the great fisheries of Northern Europe. Conseil Parmanent International Pour L'Exploration De La Mar. Rapports et Proces-Verbaux, 20: 1–228, 1914) observed that fish population levels fluctuated widely, year-class strength was set early in life, and egg production by adults could not alone explain variability in year-class strength. These observations laid the foundation for hypotheses on mechanisms driving recruitment variability in marine systems. More recently, researchers have sought to explain year-class strength of important fish in the Laurentian Great Lakes and some of the hypotheses developed for marine fisheries have been transferred to Great Lakes fish. We conducted a literature review to determine the applicability of marine recruitment hypotheses to Great Lakes fish. We found that temperature, interspecific interactions, and spawner effects (abundance, age, and condition of adults) were the most important factors in explaining recruitment variability in Great Lakes fish, whereas relatively fewer studies identified bottom-up trophodynamic factors or hydrodynamic factors as important. Next, we compared recruitment between Great Lakes and Baltic Sea fish populations and found no statistical difference in factors driving recruitment between the two systems, indicating that recruitment hypotheses may often be transferable between Great Lakes and marine systems. Many recruitment hypotheses developed for marine fish have yet to be applied to Great Lakes fish. We suggest that future research on recruitment in the Great Lakes should focus on forecasting the effects of climate change and invasive species. Further, because the Great Lakes are smaller and more enclosed than marine systems, and have abundant fishery-independent data, they are excellent candidates for future hypothesis testing on recruitment in fish.

Laurentian Great Lakes↗

USGS2020

Using value of information to prioritize research needs for migratory bird management under climate change: A case study using federal land acquisition in the United States

In response to global habitat loss, many governmental and non‐governmental organizations have implemented land acquisition programs to protect critical habitats permanently for priority species. The ability of these protected areas to meet future management objectives may be compromised if the effects of climate change are not considered in acquisition decisions. Unfortunately, the effects of climate change on ecological systems are complex and plagued by uncertainty, making it difficult for organizations to prioritize research needs to improve decision‐making. Herein, we demonstrate the use of qualitative value of information analysis to identify and prioritize which sources of uncertainty should be reduced to improve land acquisition decisions to protect migratory birds in the face of climate change. The qualitative value of information analysis process involves four steps: ( i ) articulating alternative hypotheses; ( ii ) determining the magnitude of uncertainty regarding each hypothesis; ( iii ) evaluating the relevance of each hypothesis to acquisition decision‐making; and ( iv ) assessing the feasibility of reducing the uncertainty surrounding each hypothesis through research and monitoring. We demonstrate this approach using the objectives of 3 U.S. federal land acquisition programs that focus on migratory bird management. We used a comprehensive literature review, expert elicitation, and professional judgement to evaluate 11 hypotheses about the effect of climate change on migratory birds. Based on our results, we provide a list of priorities for future research and monitoring to reduce uncertainty and improve land acquisition decisions for the programs considered in our case study. Reducing uncertainty about how climate change will influence the spatial distribution of priority species and biotic homogenization were identified as the highest priorities for future research due to both the value of this information for improving land acquisition decisions and the feasibility of reducing uncertainty through research and monitoring. Research on how changes in precipitation patterns and winter severity will influence migratory bird abundance is also expected to benefit land acquisition decisions. By contrast, hypotheses about phenology and migration distance were identified as low priorities for research. By providing a rigorous and transparent approach to prioritizing research, we demonstrate that qualitative value of information is a valuable tool for prioritizing research and improving management decisions in other complex, high‐uncertainty cases where traditional quantitative value of information analysis is not possible. Given the inherent complexity of ecological systems under climate change, and the difficulty of identifying management‐relevant research priorities, we expect this approach to have wide applications within the field of natural resource management.

Biological Reviews↗