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Oil and gas resources of the Arctic Alaska Petroleum Province

The Arctic Alaska Petroleum Province, encompassing all the lands and adjacent Continental Shelf areas north of the Brooks Range-Herald arch, is one of the most petroleum-productive areas in the United States, having produced about 15 billion bbl of oil. Seven unitized oil fields currently contribute to production, and three additional oil fields have been unitized but are not yet producing. Most known petroleum accumulations involve structural or combination structural-stratigraphic traps related to closure along the Barrow arch, a regional basement high, which has focused regional hydrocarbon migration since Early Cretaceous time. Several oil accumulations in stratigraphic traps have been developed in recent years. In addition to three small gas fields producing for local consumption, more than 20 additional oil and gas discoveries remain undeveloped. This geologically complex region includes prospective strata within passive-margin, rift, and foreland-basin sequences. Oil and gas were generated from multiple source rocks throughout the region. Although some reservoired oils appear to be derived from a single source rock, evidence for significant mixing of hydrocarbons from multiple source rocks indicates a composite petroleum system. Both extensional and contractional tectonic structures provide ample exploration targets, and recent emphasis on stratigraphic traps has demonstrated a significant resource potential in shelf and turbidite sequences of Jurassic through Tertiary age. Recent estimates of the total mean volume of undiscovered resources in the Arctic Alaska Petroleum Province by the U.S. Geological Survey and U.S. Minerals Management Service are more than 50 billion bbl of oil and natural-gas liquids and 227 trillion ft3 of gas, distributed approximately equally between Federal offshore and combined onshore and State offshore areas.

Alaska

Hydrogeologic characteristics and geospatial analysis of water-table changes in the alluvium of the lower Arkansas River Valley, southeastern Colorado, 2002, 2008, and 2015

The U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the Lower Arkansas Valley Water Conservancy District measures groundwater levels periodically in about 100 wells completed in the alluvial material of the Arkansas River Valley in Pueblo, Crowley, Otero, Bent, and Prowers Counties in southeastern Colorado, of which 95 are used for the analysis in this report. The purpose of this report is to provide information to water-resource administrators, managers, planners, and users about groundwater characteristics in the alluvium of the lower Arkansas Valley extending roughly 150 miles between Pueblo Reservoir and the Colorado-Kansas State line. This report includes three map sheets showing (1) bedrock altitude at the base of the alluvium of the lower Arkansas Valley; (2) estimated spring-to-spring and fall-to-fall changes in water-table altitude between 2002, 2008, and 2015; and (3) estimated saturated thickness in the alluvium during spring and fall of 2002, 2008, and 2015, and thickness of the alluvium in the lower Arkansas Valley. Water-level changes were analyzed by geospatial interpolation methods. Available data included all water-level measurements made between January 1, 2001, and December 31, 2015; however, only data from fall and spring of 2002, 2008, and 2015 are mapped in this report. To account for the effect of John Martin Reservoir in Bent County, Colorado, lake levels at the reservoir were assigned to points along the approximate shoreline and were included in the water-level dataset. After combining the water-level measurements and lake levels, inverse distance weighting was used to interpolate between points and calculate the altitude of the water table for fall and spring of each year for comparisons. Saturated thickness was calculated by subtracting the bedrock surface from the water-table surface. Thickness of the alluvium was calculated by subtracting the bedrock surface from land surface using a digital elevation model. In order to analyze the response of the alluvium to varying environmental and anthropogenic conditions, the percentage of area of the lower Arkansas Valley showing an absolute change of 3 feet or less was calculated for each of the six water-table altitude change maps. For fall water-table altitude change maps, the periods between 2002 and 2008, 2008 and 2015, and 2002 and 2015 showed that 86.5 percent, 85.2 percent, and 66.3 percent of the study area, respectively, showed a net change of 3 feet or less. In the spring water-table altitude change maps these periods showed a net change of 3 feet or less in 94.4 percent, 96.1 percent, and 90.2 percent of the study area, respectively. While the estimated change in water-table altitude was slightly greater and more variable in fall-to-fall comparisons, these high percentages of area with relatively small net changes indicated that, at least in comparisons of the years presented, there was not a large amount of fluctuation in the altitude of the water table. The saturated thickness in the lower Arkansas Valley was between 25 and 50 feet in 34.4 to 35.9 percent of the study area, depending on the season and year. Between 30.2 and 35.6 percent of the area showed saturated thicknesses between 0 and 25 feet. Less than 1 percent of the area showed a saturated thickness greater than 200 feet in all mapped seasons and years.

Colorado

Streamflow characteristics of the Colorado River Basin in Utah through September 1981

This report summarizes discharge data and other streamflow characteristics developed from gag ing-station records collected through September 1981 at 337 stations in the Colorado River Basin in Utah. Data also are included for 14 stations in adjacent areas of the bordering states of Arizona, Colorado, and Wyoming (fig. 1). The study leading to this report was done in cooperation with the U.S. Bureau of Land Management, which needs the streamflow data in order to evaluate impacts of mining on the hydrologic system. The report also will be beneficial to other Federal, State, and county agencies and to individuals concerned with water supply and water problems in the Colorado River Basin. The streamflow characteristics in the report could be useful in many water-related studies that involve the following: Definition of baseline-hydrologic conditions; studies of the effects of man's activities on streamflow; frequency analyses of low and high flows; regional analyses of streamflow characteristics; design of water-supply systems; water-power studies; forecasting of stream discharge; time-series analyses of streamflow; design of flood-control structures; stream-pollution studies; and water-chemistry transport studies. The basic data used to develop the summaries in this report are records of daily and peak discharge collected by the U.S. Geological Survey and other Federal agencies. Much of the work of the Geological Survey was done in cooperation with Federal, State, and county agencies. Discharge records included in the report generally were for stations with at least 1 complete water year of record and nearby stations that were on the same stream and had different streamflow characteristics. A water year is a 12-month period ending September 30, and it is designated by the calendar year in which it ends. For streams that have had significant changes in regulation by reservoirs or diversions, the records before and after those changes were used separately to provide streamflow characteristics for each period of homogeneous streamflow and to show the change in the characteristics. Summaries for annual peak discharge are included only for stations with 5 or more years of data. The summaries of annual lowest and highest mean-discharge frequency are reported for stations with 10 or more years of daily-discharge record and for which computer-generated frequency curves provided a reasonable fit of the plotted data.

Utah

Regression relations and long-term water-quality constituent concentrations, loads, yields, and trends in the North Fork Ninnescah River, south-central Kansas, 1999–2019

Cheney Reservoir, in south-central Kansas, is the primary water supply for the city of Wichita, Kansas. The North Fork Ninnescah River is the largest tributary to Cheney Reservoir and contributes about 70 percent of the inflow. The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the City of Wichita, has been continuously monitoring water quality (including water temperature, specific conductance, pH, dissolved oxygen, and turbidity) on the North Fork Ninnescah River upstream from Cheney Reservoir (U.S. Geological Survey site 07144780) since November 1998. Continued data collection would be beneficial to update and describe changing water-quality conditions in the drainage basin and in the reservoir over time. Regression models were developed to describe relations between discretely measured constituent concentrations and continuously measured physical properties. The models updated in this report include total suspended solids (TSS), suspended-sediment concentration (SSC), nitrate plus nitrite, nitrate, orthophosphate (OP), total phosphorus (TP), and total organic carbon (TOC). Daily computed concentrations for TSS, TP, and nitrate plus nitrite during 1999–2019 were compared with Cheney Reservoir Task Force (CRTF) goals for base-flow and runoff conditions. CRTF goals for base-flow concentrations were exceeded more frequently (70 to 99.9 percent of the time) than runoff goals (0 to 11 percent of the time). Except for 2012, annual mean TSS concentrations exceeded the base-flow goal every year. Nitrate plus nitrite and TP annual mean concentrations exceeded the base-flow goals every year. TSS and nitrate plus nitrite annual mean concentrations during runoff conditions never exceeded the CRTF runoff goal. TP annual mean concentrations during runoff conditions only exceeded the CRTF runoff goal during 2002. Sedimentation is progressively reducing the storage capacity of Cheney Reservoir. During 1999–2019, 55 percent of the computed suspended-sediment load was transported during the top 1 percent of loading days (76 days); 22 percent of the total load was transported in the top 10 loading days, indicating that substantial parts of suspended-sediment loads continue to be delivered during disproportionately small periods in Cheney Reservoir. Successful sediment management efforts necessitate reduction techniques that account for these large load events. Flow-normalized concentrations and fluxes were computed during 1999 through 2019 using Weighted Regressions on Time, Discharge, and Season (WRTDS) statistical models and WRTDS bootstrap tests. Flow-normalized concentrations of TSS, SSC, OP, TP, and TOC had upward trend probabilities; conversely, nitrate plus nitrite had a downward trend. Flow-normalized fluxes for OP, TP, and TOC had an upward trend. No discernible patterns were identified for flow-normalized flux of TSS or suspended sediment. Nitrate plus nitrite flow-normalized flux indicated a downward trend. Flow-normalized concentrations for TSS were less than the CRTF long-term goal of 100 milligrams per liter (mg/L), but the upward trend indicated the long-term goal may be exceeded if no changes are made. Flow-normalized TP concentrations exceeded the CRTF long-term goal (0.1 mg/L) and were assigned a very likely upward trend. Flow-normalized nitrate plus nitrite concentrations exceeded the CRTF long-term goal of 1.2 mg/L during the beginning of the study period, then were less than the CRTF goal for the remainder of the study; however, during 2010–19 flow-normalized concentrations increased by 6 percent. Linking water-quality changes to causal factors requires consistent monitoring before, during, and after changes; this presents challenges related to length and frequency of data collection and available concomitant land-use and conservation practice data. As such, attribution of water-quality trends to land-use changes or conservation practices was not possible for this study because of a lack of land-use and conservation practice data. Additionally, because precipitation frequency and intensity are projected to continue to increase in the Great Plains region, accounting for extreme episodic events may be an important consideration in future sediment and nutrient load reduction plans.

Kansas

Agencies collaborate, develop a cyanobacteria assessment network

Cyanobacteria are a genetically diverse group of photosynthetic microorganisms that occupy a broad range of habitats on land and water all over the world. They release toxins that can cause lung and skin irritation, alter the taste and odor of potable water, and cause human and animal illness. Cyanobacteria blooms occur worldwide, and climate change may increase the frequency, duration, and extent of these bloom events. Rapid detection of potentially harmful blooms is essential to protect humans and animals from exposure. Information about potential for exposure, such as bloom duration, frequency, and extent, is especially critical for developing environmental management decisions during periods of limited resources and funding. The National Research Council (NRC) report Exposure Science in the 21st Century suggested that effectively assessing and mitigating exposures requires techniques for rapid measurement of a stressor, such as an algal bloom, across diverse geographic, temporal, and biologic scales (e.g., various bloom concentrations) and an enhanced infrastructure to address threats [ NRC , 2012]. The report specifically calls for approaches that use diverse information, such as satellite remote sensing, to identify and understand exposures that may pose a threat to ecosystems or human health. A collaborative effort integrates the work of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), NASA, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), and the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) to provide an approach for using satellite ocean color capabilities in U.S. fresh and brackish water quality management decisions. The overarching goal of this collaborative project is to detect and quantify cyanobacteria blooms using satellite data records in order to support the environmental management and public use of U.S. lakes and reservoirs. Satellite remote sensing tools may enable policy makers and environmental managers to assess the sustainability of watershed ecosystems and the services they provide, now and in the future. Satellite technology allows us to develop early-warning indicators of cyanobacteria blooms at the local scale while maintaining continuous national coverage.

Eos, Earth and Space Science News

Predicting the likelihood of altered streamflows at ungauged rivers across the conterminous United States

An approach is presented in this study to aid water-resource managers in characterizing streamflow alteration at ungauged rivers. Such approaches can be used to take advantage of the substantial amounts of biological data collected at ungauged rivers to evaluate the potential ecological consequences of altered streamflows. National-scale random forest statistical models are developed to predict the likelihood that ungauged rivers have altered streamflows (relative to expected natural condition) for five hydrologic metrics (HMs) representing different aspects of the streamflow regime. The models use human disturbance variables, such as number of dams and road density, to predict the likelihood of streamflow alteration. For each HM, separate models are derived to predict the likelihood that the observed metric is greater than (‘inflated’) or less than (‘diminished’) natural conditions. The utility of these models is demonstrated by applying them to all river segments in the South Platte River in Colorado, USA, and for all 10-digit hydrologic units in the conterminous United States. In general, the models successfully predicted the likelihood of alteration to the five HMs at the national scale as well as in the South Platte River basin. However, the models predicting the likelihood of diminished HMs consistently outperformed models predicting inflated HMs, possibly because of fewer sites across the conterminous United States where HMs are inflated. The results of these analyses suggest that the primary predictors of altered streamflow regimes across the Nation are (i) the residence time of annual runoff held in storage in reservoirs, (ii) the degree of urbanization measured by road density and (iii) the extent of agricultural land cover in the river basin.

River Research and Applications

Vulnerability of riparian ecosystems to elevated CO 2 and climate change in arid and semiarid western North America

Riparian ecosystems, already greatly altered by water management, land development, and biological invasion, are being further altered by increasing atmospheric CO 2 concentrations ([CO 2 ]) and climate change, particularly in arid and semiarid (dryland) regions. In this literature review, we (1) summarize expected changes in [CO 2 ], climate, hydrology, and water management in dryland western North America, (2) consider likely effects of those changes on riparian ecosystems, and (3) identify critical knowledge gaps. Temperatures in the region are rising and droughts are becoming more frequent and intense. Warmer temperatures in turn are altering river hydrology: advancing the timing of spring snow melt floods, altering flood magnitudes, and reducing summer and base flows. Direct effects of increased [CO 2 ] and climate change on riparian ecosystems may be similar to effects in uplands, including increased heat and water stress, altered phenology and species geographic distributions, and disrupted trophic and symbiotic interactions. Indirect effects due to climate-driven changes in streamflow, however, may exacerbate the direct effects of warming and increase the relative importance of moisture and fluvial disturbance as drivers of riparian ecosystem response to global change. Together, climate change and climate-driven changes in streamflow are likely to reduce abundance of dominant, native, early-successional tree species, favor herbaceous species and both drought-tolerant and late-successional woody species (including many introduced species), reduce habitat quality for many riparian animals, and slow litter decomposition and nutrient cycling. Climate-driven changes in human water demand and associated water management may intensify these effects. On some regulated rivers, however, reservoir releases could be managed to protect riparian ecosystem. Immediate research priorities include determining riparian species' environmental requirements and monitoring riparian ecosystems to allow rapid detection and response to undesirable ecological change.

Global Change Biology

Hydrogeology, groundwater levels, and generalized potentiometric-surface map of the Green River Basin lower Tertiary aquifer system, 2010–14, in the northern Green River structural basin

In cooperation with the Bureau of Land Management, groundwater levels in wells located in the northern Green River Basin in Wyoming, an area of ongoing energy development, were measured by the U.S. Geological Survey from 2010 to 2014. The wells were completed in the uppermost aquifers of the Green River Basin lower Tertiary aquifer system, which is a complex regional aquifer system that provides water to most wells in the area. Except for near perennial streams, groundwater-level altitudes in most aquifers generally decreased with increasing depth, indicating a general downward potential for groundwater movement in the study area. Drilled depth of the wells was observed as a useful indicator of depth to groundwater such that deeper wells typically had a greater depth to groundwater. Comparison of a subset of wells included in this study that had historical groundwater levels that were measured during the 1960s and 1970s and again between 2012 and 2014 indicated that, overall, most of the wells showed a net decline in groundwater levels. The groundwater-level measurements were used to construct a generalized potentiometric-surface map of the Green River Basin lower Tertiary aquifer system. Groundwater-level altitudes measured in nonflowing and flowing wells used to construct the potentiometric-surface map ranged from 6,451 to 7,307 feet (excluding four unmeasured flowing wells used for contour construction purposes). The potentiometric-surface map indicates that groundwater in the study area generally moves from north to south, but this pattern of flow is altered locally by groundwater divides, groundwater discharge to the Green River, and possibly to a tributary river (Big Sandy River) and two reservoirs (Fontenelle and Big Sandy Reservoirs).

Wyoming

Water withdrawals for irrigation, municipal, mining, thermoelectric-power, and drainage uses in Arizona outside of active management areas, 1991-2000

Economic development in Arizona is largely influenced by access to adequate water supplies owing to the State's predominantly semiarid to arid climate. Water demand is met by pumping ground water from aquifers or by con­veying surface water through a system of reservoirs and canals. Water-withdrawal data provide important information on how water demand affects the State's water resources. Information on water withdrawals also can help planners and managers assess the effectiveness of water-management policies, regulations, and conservation activities. This report includes water-withdrawal data for irrigation, municipal, mining, thermoelectric-power, and drainage uses for 1991-2000, and describes the methods used to collect, compile, and estimate the data. Data are reported for the Arizona Department of Water Resources ground-water basins outside of Active Management Areas. Because of the climate, ground water and surface water are used to irrigate nearly all agricultural fields in Arizona. Irrigation accounted for the largest use of water in the study area during 1991-2000. The amount of water withdrawn for irrigation varies greatly from year to year for some of the basins, primarily because of differences in the consumptive water requirement for different crops and because of changes in irrigated acreage. The population of Arizona increased about 35 percent from 1991 to 2000-from about 3.79 million in 1991 to about 5.13 million in 2000. Correspondingly, water withdrawal for municipal use increased steadily in most of the basins during 1991-2000. Ground-water withdrawals for mining did not show any consistent trends during 1991-2000. Increases and decreases in withdrawals for mining were most likely due to variations in mineral production. Mineral prices and competition from mining in other States and foreign countries probably result in annual increases or decreases in mineral production in Arizona. Between 1991 and 2000, ground-water withdrawals for thermoelectric-power generation generally increased owing to an increase in production of electricity. Ground-water withdrawals for drainage of agricultural lands in the Lower Gila and Yuma Basins varied irregularly from year to year. Annual total water withdrawals are not presented in this report because for some years irrigation values for some of the basins are reported as "less than 1,000 acre-feet," and municipal and mining values for some of the basins are reported as "less than 300 acre-feet."

Arizona

Capacitively coupled and direct-current resistivity surveys of selected reaches of Cozad, Thirty-Mile, Orchard-Alfalfa, Kearney, and Outlet Canals in Nebraska, 2012-13

Understanding the spatial characteristics of leakage from canals is critical to effectively managing and utilizing water resources for irrigation and hydroelectric purposes. Canal leakage in some parts of Nebraska is the primary source of water for groundwater recharge and helps maintain the base flow of streams. Because surface-water supplies depend on the streamflow of the Platte River and the available water stored in upstream reservoirs, water managers seek to minimize conveyance losses, which can include canal leakage. The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Central Platte Natural Resources District and Nebraska Public Power District, used capacitively coupled (CC) and direct-current (DC) resistivity techniques for continuous resistivity profiling to map near-surface lithologies near and underlying the Cozad, Thirty-Mile, Orchard-Alfalfa, Kearney, and Outlet Canals. Approximately 84 kilometers (km) of CC-resistivity data were collected along the five canals. The CC-resistivity data were compared with results from continuous sediment cores and electrical conductivity logs. Generally, the highest resistivities were recorded at the upstream reaches of the Cozad, Thirty-Mile, and Orchard-Alfalfa canals where flood-plain deposits of silt and clay mantle coarser channel deposits of sand and gravel. The finer grained deposits gradually thicken with increasing distance away from the Platte River. Consequently, for many surveyed reaches the thickness of fine-grained deposits exceeded the 8-meter depth of investigation. A detailed geophysical investigation along a 5-km reach of the Outlet Canal southwest of North Platte, Nebraska, used CC and DC resistivity to examine the condition of a compacted-core bank structure and characterized other potential controls on areas of focused seepage. CC-resistivity data, collected along the 5-km study reach, were compared with continuous sediment cores and DC-resistivity data collected near a selected seep near Outlet Canal mile post 15.55 along 5 separate profiles. DC-resistivity results were compared to a schematic cross section of the Outlet Canal north embankment that include the original surfaces and modifications to the compacted-core bank structure. Along the canal road south line, there is a transition from high resistivity at land surface to much lower resistivity near the estimated depth of the northern slope of the original compacted-core bank; however, the surveyed elevation of the water surface in the canal also is at this elevation. Along the canal road north line, there is a transition from high resistivity near land surface to lower resistivity at depth. Although the transition is rapid near the estimated depth of the first-modified bank slope, it also is coincident with the groundwater level measured in piezometer PZ-4. Currently (2013), it is unknown if the indicated changes in resistivity at these elevations was the effect of saturation of the underlying sediments or caused by the compacted-core bank.

Nebraska

Optimal hydrograph separation using a recursive digital filter constrained by chemical mass balance, with application to selected Chesapeake Bay watersheds

Quantitative estimates of base flow are necessary to address questions concerning the vulnerability and response of the Nation’s water supply to natural and human-induced change in environmental conditions. An objective of the U.S. Geological Survey National Water-Quality Assessment Project is to determine how hydrologic systems are affected by watershed characteristics, including land use, land cover, water use, climate, and natural characteristics (geology, soil type, and topography). An important component of any hydrologic system is base flow, generally described as the part of streamflow that is sustained between precipitation events, fed to stream channels by delayed (usually subsurface) pathways, and more specifically as the volumetric discharge of water, estimated at a measurement site or gage at the watershed scale, which represents groundwater that discharges directly or indirectly to stream reaches and is then routed to the measurement point. Hydrograph separation using a recursive digital filter was applied to 225 sites in the Chesapeake Bay watershed. The recursive digital filter was chosen for the following reasons: it is based in part on the assumption that groundwater acts as a linear reservoir, and so has a physical basis; it has only two adjustable parameters (alpha, obtained directly from recession analysis, and beta, the maximum value of the base-flow index that can be modeled by the filter), which can be determined objectively and with the same physical basis of groundwater reservoir linearity, or that can be optimized by applying a chemical-mass-balance constraint. Base-flow estimates from the recursive digital filter were compared with those from five other hydrograph-separation methods with respect to two metrics: the long-term average fraction of streamflow that is base flow, or base-flow index, and the fraction of days where streamflow is entirely base flow. There was generally good correlation between the methods, with some biased slightly high and some biased slightly low compared to the recursive digital filter. There were notable differences between the days at base flow estimated by the different methods, with the recursive digital filter having a smaller range of values. This was attributed to how the different methods determine cessation of quickflow (the part of streamflow which is not base flow). For 109 Chesapeake Bay watershed sites with available specific conductance data, the parameters of the filter were optimized using a chemical-mass-balance constraint and two different models for the time-dependence of base-flow specific conductance. Sixty-seven models were deemed acceptable and the results compared well with non-optimized results. There are a number of limitations to the optimal hydrograph-separation approach resulting from the assumptions implicit in the conceptual model, the mathematical model, and the approach taken to impose chemical mass balance (including tracer choice). These limitations may be evidenced by poor model results; conversely, poor model fit may provide an indication that two-component separation does not adequately describe the hydrologic system’s runoff response. The results of this study may be used to address a number of questions regarding the role of groundwater in understanding past changes in stream-water quality and forecasting possible future changes, such as the timing and magnitude of land-use and management practice effects on stream and groundwater quality. Ongoing and future modeling efforts may benefit from the estimates of base flow as calibration targets or as a means to filter chemical data to model base-flow loads and trends. Ultimately, base-flow estimation might provide the basis for future work aimed at improving the ability to quantify groundwater discharge, not only at the scale of a gaged watershed, but at the scale of individual reaches as well.

Scientific Investigations Report

Waterfowl spring migratory behavior and avian influenza transmission risk in the changing landscape of the East Asian-Australasian Flyway

Avian influenza has advanced from a regional concern to a global health issue with significant economic, trade, and public health implications. Wild birds, particularly waterfowl (Anseriformes), are known reservoirs for low-pathogenic avian influenza viruses (AIV) and recent studies have shown their potential in the spread of highly pathogenic forms of virus. East Asia remains an epicenter for the emergence of novel strains of AIV, however, information on movement ecology of waterfowl, and subsequently a clearer understanding of disease transmission risks in this region has been greatly lacking. To address this, we marked two species of wild waterfowl, northern pintail (Anas acuta) and Eurasian wigeon (Anas penelope) , with satellite transmitters on their wintering grounds in Hong Kong, China to study the northward spring migration in the East Asian-Australasian Flyway in relation to disease transmission factors. Northern pintail were found to initiate migration 42 days earlier, travel 2,150 km farther, and perform 4.4 more stopovers than Eurasian wigeon. We found both species used similar stopover locations including areas along the Yangtze River near Shanghai, Bohai Bay and Korea Bay in rapidly developing regions of the Yellow Sea, and the Sea of Okhotsk where the species appeared to funnel through a migratory bottleneck. Both species appeared to exhibit strong habitat selection for rice paddies during migration stopovers, a habitat preference which has the potential to influence risks of AIV outbreaks as rapid land use and land cover changes occur throughout China. Both species had greatest association with H5N1 outbreaks during the early stages of migration when they were at lower latitudes. While Eurasian wigeon were not associated with outbreaks after the mean date of wintering ground departures, northern pintail were associated with outbreaks until the majority of individuals departed from the Yellow Sea, a migratory stopover location. Our results show species-level differences in migration timing and behavior for these common and widespread species, demonstrating the need to consider their unique temporal and spatial movement ecology when incorporating wild birds into AIV risk modeling and management.

Frontiers in Ecology and Evolution

Control of nitrogen and phosphorus transport by reservoirs in agricultural landscapes

Reservoirs often receive excess nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) lost from agricultural land, and may subsequently influence N and P delivery to inland and coastal waters through internal processes such as nutrient burial, denitrification, and nutrient turnover. Currently there is a need to better understand how reservoirs affect nutrient transport in agricultural landscapes, where few prior studies have provided joint views on the variation in net retention/loss among reservoirs, the role of reservoirs apart from natural lakes, and differences in effects on N versus P, especially over time frames >1 year. To address these needs, we compiled water quality data from many rivers in intermediate-to-large drainages of the Midwestern US, including tributaries to the Upper Mississippi River, Great Lakes, and Ohio River Basins, where cropland often covers >50 % of the contributing area. Incorporating 18 years of data (1990–2007), effects of reservoirs on river nutrient transport were examined using comparisons between reservoir out- flow sites and unimpeded river sites (N = 869, including 100 reservoir outflow sites) supported by mass balance analysis of individual reservoirs (n = 17). Reservoir outflows sites commonly had 20 % lower annual yields (mass per catchment area per year) of total N and total P (TP) than unimpeded rivers after accounting for cropland coverage. Reservoir outflow sites also had lower interannual variability in TP yields. The mass balance approach confirmed net N losses in reservoirs, suggesting denitrification of agricultural N, or N burial in sediments. Net retention of P ranged more widely, and multiple systems showed net P export, providing new evidence that legacy P within reservoir systems may mobilize over the long-term. Our results indicate that reservoirs broadly influence the downstream transport of N and P through agricultural river networks, including networks where natural lakes and wetlands are relatively scarce. This calls for a more complete understanding of agricultural reservoirs as open, connected features of river networks where biogeochemical processes are often influential to downstream water quality, but potentially sensitive to changes associated with sedimentation, eutrophication, infrastructure aging, and reservoir management.

Biogeochemistry

Satellites quantify the spatial extent of cyanobacterial blooms across the United States at multiple scales

Previous studies indicate that cyanobacterial harmful algal bloom (cyanoHAB) frequency, extent, and magnitude have increased globally over the past few decades. However, little quantitative capability is available to assess these metrics of cyanoHABs across broad geographic scales and at regular intervals. Here, the spatial extent was quantified from a cyanobacteria algorithm applied to two European Space Agency satellite platforms—the MEdium Resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MERIS) onboard Envisat and the Ocean and Land Colour Instrument (OLCI) onboard Sentinel-3. CyanoHAB spatial extent was defined for each geographic area as the percentage of valid satellite pixels that exhibited cyanobacteria above the detection limit of the satellite sensor. This study quantified cyanoHAB spatial extent for over 2,000 large lakes and reservoirs across the contiguous United States (CONUS) during two time periods: 2008–2011 via MERIS and 2017–2020 via OLCI when cloud-, ice-, and snow-free imagery was available. Approximately 56% of resolvable lakes were glaciated, 13% were headwater, isolated, or terminal lakes, and the rest were primarily drainage lakes. Results were summarized at national-, regional-, state-, and lake-scales, where regions were defined as nine climate regions which represent climatically consistent states. As measured by satellite, changes in national cyanoHAB extent did have a strong increase of 6.9% from 2017 to 2020 (|Kendall’s tau (τ)| = 0.56; gamma (γ) = 2.87 years), but had negligible change (|τ| = 0.03) from 2008 to 2011. Two of the nine regions had moderate (0.3 ≤ |τ| < 0.5) increases in spatial extent from 2017 to 2020, and eight of nine regions had negligible (|τ| < 0.2) change from 2008 to 2011. Twelve states had a strong or moderate increase from 2017 to 2020 (|τ| ≥ 0.3), while only one state had a moderate increase and two states had a moderate decrease from 2008 to 2011. A decrease, or no change, in cyanoHAB spatial extent did not indicate a lack of issues related to cyanoHABs. Sensitivity results of randomly omitted daily CONUS scenes confirm that even with reduced data availability during a short four-year temporal assessment, the direction and strength of the changes in spatial extent remained consistent. We present the first set of national maps of lake cyanoHAB spatial extent across CONUS and demonstrate an approach for quantifying past and future changes at multiple spatial scales. Results presented here provide water quality managers information regarding current cyanoHAB spatial extent and quantify rates of change.

Ecological Indicators

Occurrence and transport of nutrients in the Missouri River Basin, April through September 2011

Heavy snow and early spring rainfall generated substantial amounts of runoff and flooding in the upper part of the Missouri River Basin in 2011. Spring runoff in the upper and middle parts of the basin exceeded the storage capacity of the Missouri River reservoirs and unprecedented amounts of water were released into the lower parts of the basin resulting in record floods from June through September on the Missouri River in Iowa and Nebraska and extending into Kansas and Missouri. Runoff from the Missouri River Basin in April through September 2011 was 8,440,000 hectare meters (68,400,000 acre feet) and was only exceeded during flooding in 1993 when runoff was 11,200,000 hectare meters (90,700,000 acre feet). Nitrate and total phosphorus concentrations in the Missouri River and selected tributaries in April through September, 2011 generally were within the expected range of concentrations measured during the last 30 years. Substantial discharge from the upper and middle parts of the Missouri River Basin resulted in nitrate concentrations decreasing in the lower Missouri River beginning in June. Concentrations of nitrate in water entering the Mississippi River from the Missouri River were less in 2011 than in 1993, but total phosphorus concentrations entering the Mississippi River were substantially greater in 2011 than in 1993. The Missouri River transported an estimated 79,600 megagrams of nitrate and 38,000 megagrams of total phosphorus to the Mississippi River from April through September 2011. The nitrate flux in 2011 was less than 20 percent of the combined total from the Upper Mississippi and Missouri River Basins. In contrast, the total phosphorus flux of 38,000 megagrams from the Missouri River constituted about 39 percent of the combined total from the Upper Mississippi and Missouri River Basins during April through September 2011. Substantially more nitrate but less total phosphorus was transported from the Missouri River Basin during the historic 1993 than during the 2011 flood. Greater runoff from the lower part of the basin contributed to the greater nitrate transport in 1993. In addition to the differing amounts of runoff and the source of flood waters, changes in land use, and management practices are additional factors that may have contributed to the difference in nitrate and total phosphorus flux between the 1993 and 2011 floods.

Iowa, Kansas, Missouri, Nebraska

Hydrogeologic framework of the Santa Clara Valley, California

The hydrologic framework of the Santa Clara Valley in northern California was redefined on the basis of new data and a new hydrologic model. The regional groundwater flow systems can be subdivided into upper-aquifer and lower-aquifer systems that form a convergent flow system within a basin bounded by mountains and hills on three sides and discharge to pumping wells and the southern San Francisco Bay. Faults also control the flow of groundwater within the Santa Clara Valley and subdivide the aquifer system into three subregions. After decades of development and groundwater depletion that resulted in substantial land subsidence, Santa Clara Valley Water District (SCVWD) and the local water purveyors have refilled the basin through conservation and importation of water for direct use and artificial recharge. The natural flow system has been altered by extensive development with flow paths toward major well fields. Climate has not only affected the cycles of sedimentation during the glacial periods over the past million years, but interannual to interdecadal climate cycles also have affected the supply and demand components of the natural and anthropogenic inflows and outflows of water in the valley. Streamflow has been affected by development of the aquifer system and regulated flow from reservoirs, as well as conjunctive use of groundwater and surface water. Interaquifer flow through water-supply wells screened across multiple aquifers is an important component to the flow of groundwater and recapture of artificial recharge in the Santa Clara Valley. Wellbore flow and depth-dependent chemical and isotopic data indicate that flow into wells from multiple aquifers, as well as capture of artificial recharge by pumping of water-supply wells, predominantly is occurring in the upper 500 ft (152 m) of the aquifer system. Artificial recharge represents about one-half of the inflow of water into the valley for the period 1970–1999. Most subsidence is occurring below 250 ft (76 m), and most pumpage occurs within the upper-aquifer system between 300 and 650 ft (between 91 and 198 m) below land surface. Overall, the natural quality of most groundwater in the Santa Clara Valley is good. Isotopic data indicate that artificial recharge is occurring throughout the shallower parts of the upper-aquifer system and that recent recharge (less than 50 yr old) occurs throughout most of the basin in the upper-aquifer system, but many of the wells in the center of the basin with deeper well screens do not contain tritium and recent recharge. Age dates indicate that the groundwater in the upper-aquifer system generally is less than 2000 yr old, and groundwater in the lower-aquifer system generally ranges from 16,700 to 39,900 yr old. Depth-dependent sampling indicates that wellbores are the main path for vertical flow between aquifer layers. Isotopic data indicate as much as 60% of water pumped from production wells originated as artificial recharge. Shallow aquifers not only contain more recent recharge but may be more susceptible to anthropogenic and natural contamination, as evidenced by trace occurrences of iron, nitrate, and volatile organic compounds (VOCs) in selected water-supply wells. Water-resource management issues are centered on sustaining a reliable and good-quality source of water to the residents and industries of the valley. While the basin has been refilled, increased demand owing to growth and droughts could result in renewed storage depletion and the related potential adverse effects of land subsidence and seawater intrusion. The new hydrologic model demonstrates the importance of the aquifer layering, faults, and stream channels in relation to groundwater flow and infiltration of recharge. This model provides a means to analyze water resource issues because it separates the supply and demand components of the inflows and outflows.

California

Groundwater and surface-water interaction within the upper Smith River Watershed, Montana 2006-2010

The 125-mile long Smith River, a tributary of the Missouri River, is highly valued as an agricultural resource and for its many recreational uses. During a drought starting in about 1999, streamflow was insufficient to meet all of the irrigation demands, much less maintain streamflow needed for boating and viable fish habitat. In 2006, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Meagher County Conservation District, initiated a multi-year hydrologic investigation of the Smith River watershed. This investigation was designed to increase understanding of the water resources of the upper Smith River watershed and develop a detailed description of groundwater and surface-water interactions. A combination of methods, including miscellaneous and continuous groundwater-level, stream-stage, water-temperature, and streamflow monitoring was used to assess the hydrologic system and the spatial and temporal variability of groundwater and surface-water interactions. Collectively, data are in agreement and show: (1) the hydraulic connectedness of groundwater and surface water, (2) the presence of both losing and gaining stream reaches, (3) dynamic changes in direction and magnitude of water flow between the stream and groundwater with time, (4) the effects of local flood irrigation on groundwater levels and gradients in the watershed, and (5) evidence and timing of irrigation return flows to area streams. Groundwater flow within the alluvium and older (Tertiary) basin-fill sediments generally followed land-surface topography from the uplands to the axis of alluvial valleys of the Smith River and its tributaries. Groundwater levels were typically highest in the monitoring wells located within and adjacent to streams in late spring or early summer, likely affected by recharge from snowmelt and local precipitation, leakage from losing streams and canals, and recharge from local flood irrigation. The effects of flood irrigation resulted in increased hydraulic gradients (increased groundwater levels relative to stream stage) or even reversed gradient direction at several monitoring sites coincident with the onset of nearby flood irrigation. Groundwater-level declines in mid-summer were due to groundwater withdrawals and reduced recharge from decreased precipitation, increased evapotranspiration, and reduced leakage in some area streams during periods of low flow. Groundwater levels typically rebounded in late summer, a result of decreased evapotranspiration, decreased groundwater use for irrigation, increased flow in losing streams, and the onset of late-season flood irrigation at some sites. The effect of groundwater and surface-water interactions is most apparent along the North and South Forks of the Smith River where the magnitude of streamflow losses and gains can be greater than the magnitude of flow within the stream. Net gains consistently occurred over the lower 15 miles of the South Fork Smith River. A monitoring site near the mouth of the South Fork Smith River gained (flow from the groundwater to the stream) during all seasons, with head gradients towards the stream. Two upstream sites on the South Fork Smith River exhibited variable conditions that ranged from gaining during the spring, losing (flowing from the stream to the groundwater) during most of the summer as groundwater levels declined, and then approached or returned to gaining conditions in late summer. Parts of the South Fork Smith River became dry during periods of losing conditions, thus classifying this tributary as intermittent. The North Fork Smith River is highly managed at times through reservoir releases. The North Fork Smith River was perennial throughout the study period although irrigation diversions removed a large percentage of streamflow at times and losing conditions persisted along a lower reach. The lowermost reach of the North Fork Smith River near its mouth transitioned from a losing reach to a gaining reach throughout the study period. Groundwater and surface-water interactions occur downstream from the confluence of the North and South Fork Smith Rivers, but are less discernible compared to the overall magnitude of the main-stem streamflow. The Smith River was perennial throughout the study. Monitoring sites along the Smith River generally displayed small head gradients between the stream and the groundwater, while one site consistently showed strongly gaining conditions. Synoptic streamflow measurements during periods of limited irrigation diversion in 2007 and 2008 consistently showed gains over the upper 41.4 river miles of the main stem Smith River where net gains ranged from 13.0 to 28.9 cubic feet per second. Continuous streamflow data indicated net groundwater discharge and small-scale tributary inflow contributions of around 25 cubic feet per second along the upper 10-mile reach of the Smith River for most of the 2010 record. A period of intense irrigation withdrawal during the last two weeks in May was followed by a period (early June 2010 to mid-July 2010) with the largest net increase (an average of 71.1 cubic feet per second) in streamflow along this reach of the Smith River. This observation is likely due to increased groundwater discharge to the Smith River resulting from irrigation return flow. By late July, the apparent effects of return flows receded, and the net increase in streamflow returned to about 25 cubic feet per second. Two-dimensional heat and solute transport VS2DH models representing selected stream cross sections were used to constrain the hydraulic properties of the Quaternary alluvium and estimate temporal water-flux values through model boundaries. Hydraulic conductivity of the Quaternary alluvium of the modeled sections ranged from 3x10-6 to 4x10-5 feet per second. The models showed reasonable approximations of the streambed and shallow aquifer environment, and the dynamic changes in water flux between the stream and the groundwater through different model boundaries.

Montana

Surface-water hydrology and runoff simulations for three basins in Pierce County, Washington

The surface-water hydrology in Clear, Clarks, and Clover Creek Basins in central Pierce County, Washington, is described with a conceptual model of the runoff processes and then simulated with the Hydrological Simulation Program-FORTRAN (HSPF), a continuous, deterministic hydrologic model. The study area is currently undergoing a rapid conversion of rural, undeveloped land to urban and suburban land that often changes the flow characteristics of the streams that drain these lands. The complex interactions of land cover, climate, soils, topography, channel characteristics, and ground- water flow patterns determine the surface-water hydrology of the study area and require a complex numerical model to assess the impact of urbanization on streamflows. The U.S. Geological Survey completed this investigation in cooperation with the Storm Drainage and Surface Water Management Utility within the Pierce County Department of Public Works to describe the important rainfall-runoff processes within the study area and to develop a simulation model to be used as a tool to predict changes in runoff characteristics resulting from changes in land use. The conceptual model, a qualitative representation of the study basins, links the physical characteristics to the runoff process of the study basins. The model incorporates 11 generalizations identified by the investigation, eight of which describe runoff from hillslopes, and three that account for the effects of channel characteristics and ground-water flow patterns on runoff. Stream discharge was measured at 28 sites and precipitation was measured at six sites for 3 years in two overlapping phases during the period of October 1989 through September 1992 to calibrate and validate the simulation model. Comparison of rainfall data from October 1989 through September 1992 shows the data-collection period beginning with 2 wet water years followed by the relatively dry 1992 water year. Runoff was simulated with two basin models-the Clover Creek Basin model and the Clear-Clarks Basin model-by incorporating the generalizations of the conceptual model into the construction of two HSPF numerical models. Initially, the process-related parameters for runoff from glacial-till hillslopes were calibrated with numerical models for three catchment sites and one headwater basin where streamflows were continuously measured and little or no influence from ground water, channel storage, or channel losses affected runoff. At one of the catchments soil moisture was monitored and compared with simulated soil moisture. The values for these parameters were used in the basin models. Basin models were calibrated to the first year of observed streamflow data by adjusting other parameters in the numerical model that simulated channel losses, simulated channel storage in a few of the reaches in the headwaters and in the floodplain of the main stem of Clover Creek, and simulated volume and outflow of the ground-water reservoir representing the regional ground-water aquifers. The models were run for a second year without any adjustments, and simulated results were compared with observed results as a measure of validation of the models. The investigation showed the importance of defining the ground-water flow boundaries and demonstrated a simple method of simulating the influence of the regional ground-water aquifer on streamflows. In the Clover Creek Basin model, ground-water flow boundaries were used to define subbasins containing mostly glacial outwash soils and not containing any surface drainage channels. In the Clear-Clarks Basin model, ground-water flow boundaries outlined a recharge area outside the surface-water boundaries of the basin that was incorporated into the model in order to provide sufficient water to balance simulated ground-water outflows to the creeks. A simulated ground-water reservoir used to represent regional ground-water flow processes successfully provided the proper water balance of inflows and outfl

Washington