Geology Reports⌕ Search

SEARCH · Geology Reports

Results for “Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies”

Search indexed USGS publications on groundwater, aquifers, geologic maps, mineral resources and earthquakes. Explore source records by subject and place.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 199 records · Page 11Linked to original sources
USGS2022

On the role of climate in monthly baseflow changes across the continental United States

Baseflow is the portion of streamflow that comes from groundwater and subsurface sources. Although baseflow is essential for sustaining streams during low flow and drought periods, we have little information about how and why it has changed over large regions of the continental United States. The objective of this study was to evaluate how changes in the climate system have affected observed monthly baseflow records at 3,283 USGS gauges over the last 30 years (1989–2019). We developed a statistical modeling framework to determine the relationship between monthly baseflow and monthly climate predictors (i.e., precipitation, temperature, and antecedent wetness). Overall, we found that baseflow trends and the factors influencing them vary by region and month. In the US Northeast, increases were detected earlier in the year (February and March) and in the summer (May and June), and were likely due to increasing precipitation, warmer temperature, and subsequent changes in snowmelt. Increasing baseflow in the US Pacific Northwest and Midwest were associated with increases in precipitation and antecedent wetness throughout the year. Decreasing trends were located in the US Southeast and Southwest. Baseflow trends in the US Southeast were only detected in March, possibly as a result of decreased precipitation during the spring. On the other hand, decreases in baseflow in the Central Southwestern United States occurred throughout the year. These trends were associated with a lack of precipitation and increases in temperature. Finally, we examined the relationship between monthly baseflow trends and changes in total water storage using monthly Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment mascon products from the Jet Propulsion Laboratory. In this study, trends in total water storage were strongly associated with baseflow trends across the United States. The spatial and temporal variability in baseflow response to climate reported here can aid water managers in adapting to future climate change.

continental United States↗
USGS2019

Integrating stream gage data and Landsat imagery to complete time-series of surface water extents in Central Valley, California

Accurate monitoring of surface water location and extent is critical for the management of diverse water resource phenomena. The multi-decadal archive of Landsat satellite imagery is punctuated by missing data due to cloud cover during acquisition times, hindering the assembly of a continuous time series of inundation dynamics. This study investigated whether streamflow volume measurements could be integrated with satellite data to fill gaps in monthly surface water chronologies for the Central Valley region of California, USA, from 1984 to 2015. We aggregated measurements of maximum monthly water extent within each of the study area’s 50 8-digit hydrologic unit code [HUC] watersheds from two Landsat-derived datasets: the European Commission’s Joint Research Centre (JRC) Monthly Water History and the U.S. Geological Survey Dynamic Surface Water Extent (DSWE). We calculated Spearman rank correlation coefficients between water extent values in each HUC and streamflow discharge data. Linear regression fits of the water extent/streamflow data pairs with the highest correlations served as the basis for interpolation of missing imagery surface water values on a HUC-wise basis. Results show strong (ρ > 0.7) maximum correlations in 11 (22.4%) and 25 (51.0%) HUCs for the DSWE and JRC time series, respectively, when comparisons were restricted to imagery and gages co-located in each HUC. Strong maximum correlations occurred in 39 (79.6%; DSWE) and 42 (85.7%; JRC) HUCs when imagery was paired with discharge data from any study area gage, providing a solid basis for reconstruction of water extent values. We generated continuous time series of 30+ years in 35 HUCs, demonstrating that this technique can provide quantitative estimates of historical surface water extents and elucidate flooding or drought events over the period of data collection. Results of a non-parametric trend analysis of the long-term time series on an annual, seasonal, and monthly basis varied among HUCs, though most trends indicate an increase in surface water over the past 30 years.

California↗
USGS2014

Quantity and quality of groundwater discharge in a hypersaline lake environment

Geophysical and geochemical surveys were conducted to understand groundwater discharge to Great Salt Lake (GSL) and assess the potential significance of groundwater discharge as a source of selenium (Se). Continuous resistivity profiling (CRP) focusing below the sediment/water interface and fiber-optic distributed temperature sensing (FO-DTS) surveys were conducted along the south shore of GSL. FO-DTS surveys identified persistent cold-water temperature anomalies at 10 separate locations. Seepage measurements were conducted at 17 sites (mean seepage rate = 0.8 cm/day). High resistivity anomalies identified by the CRP survey were likely a mirabilite (Na 2 SO 4 ·10H 2 O) salt layer acting as a semi-confining layer for the shallow groundwater below the south shore of the lake. Positive seepage rates measured along the near-shore areas of GSL indicate that a ∼1-m thick oolitic sand overlying the mirabilite layer is likely acting as a shallow, unconfined aquifer. Using the average seepage rate of 0.8 cm/day over an area of 1.6 km 2 , an annual Se mass loading to GSL of 23.5 kg was estimated. Determination of R/Ra values (calculated 3 He/ 4 He ratio over the present-day atmospheric 3 He/ 4 He ratio) <1 and tritium activities of 1.2–2.0 tritium units in groundwater within and below the mirabilite layer indicates a convergence of regional and local groundwater flow paths discharging into GSL. Groundwater within and below the mirabilite layer obtains its high sulfate salinity from the dissolution of mirabilite. The δ 34 S and δ 18 O isotopic values in samples of dissolved sulfate from the shallow groundwater below the mirabilite are almost identical to the isotopic signature of the mirabilite core material. The saturation index calculated for groundwater samples using PHREEQC indicates the water is at equilibrium with mirabilite. Water samples collected from GSL immediately off shore contained Se concentrations that were 3–4 times higher than other sampling sites >25 km offshore from the study site and may be originating from less saline groundwater seeps mixing with the more saline water from GSL. Additional evidence for mixing with near shore seeps is found in the δD and δ 18 O isotopic values and Br:Cl ratios. Geochemical modeling for a water sample collected in the vicinity of the study area indicates that under chemically reducing conditions, arsenic- (As) bearing minerals could dissolve while Se-bearing minerals will likely precipitate out of solution, possibly explaining why the shallow groundwater below and within the mirabilite salt layer contains low concentrations of Se (0.9–2.3 μg/L).

Utah↗
USGS2020

Seasonal subsurface thaw dynamics of an aufeis feature inferred from geophysical methods

Aufeis are sheets of ice unique to cold regions that originate from repeated flooding and freezing events during the winter. They have hydrological importance associated with summer flows and possibly winter insulation, but little is known about the seasonal dynamics of the unfrozen sediment layer beneath them. This layer may support perennial groundwater flow in regions with otherwise continuous permafrost. For this study, ground penetrating radar (GPR) were collected in September 2016 (maximum thaw) and April 2017 (maximum frozen) at the Kuparuk aufeis field on the North Slope of Alaska. Supporting surface nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) data were collected during the maximum frozen campaign. These point-in-time geophysical data sets were augmented by continuous subsurface temperature data and periodic Structure-from-Motion digital elevation models (DEM) collected seasonally. GPR and difference DEM data showed maximum ice thicknesses of up to 6 m over the sediment surface. Below the ice, GPR and NMR identified regions of permafrost and regions of seasonally frozen sediment (i.e., the active layer) underlain by a substantial perennially unfrozen zone or “lateral talik” that ranged from 0 m to over 13 m thick. The seasonally frozen cobble layer above the talik was typically 3 to 5 m thick, with freezing apparently enabled by relatively high thermal diffusivity of the overlying ice and rock cobbles. The large talik beneath the aufeis and active layer suggests that year-round groundwater flow and coupled heat transport occurs beneath much of the feature. Highly permeable alluvial material and discrete zones of apparent groundwater upwelling indicated by geophysical and ground temperature data allows direct connection between the aufeis and the talik below.

Alaska↗
USGS2014

An enhanced model of land water and energy for global hydrologic and earth-system studies

LM3 is a new model of terrestrial water, energy, and carbon, intended for use in global hydrologic analyses and as a component of earth-system and physical-climate models. It is designed to improve upon the performance and to extend the scope of the predecessor Land Dynamics (LaD) and LM3V models by better quantifying the physical controls of climate and biogeochemistry and by relating more directly to components of the global water system that touch human concerns. LM3 includes multilayer representations of temperature, liquid water content, and ice content of both snowpack and macroporous soil–bedrock; topography-based description of saturated area and groundwater discharge; and transport of runoff to the ocean via a global river and lake network. Sensible heat transport by water mass is accounted throughout for a complete energy balance. Carbon and vegetation dynamics and biophysics are represented as in LM3V. In numerical experiments, LM3 avoids some of the limitations of the LaD model and provides qualitatively (though not always quantitatively) reasonable estimates, from a global perspective, of observed spatial and/or temporal variations of vegetation density, albedo, streamflow, water-table depth, permafrost, and lake levels. Amplitude and phase of annual cycle of total water storage are simulated well. Realism of modeled lake levels varies widely. The water table tends to be consistently too shallow in humid regions. Biophysical properties have an artificial stepwise spatial structure, and equilibrium vegetation is sensitive to initial conditions. Explicit resolution of thick (>100 m) unsaturated zones and permafrost is possible, but only at the cost of long (≫300 yr) model spinup times.

Journal of Hydrometeorology↗
USGS2020

Seasonal manganese transport in the hyporheic zone of a snowmelt-dominated river (East River, Colorado)

Manganese (Mn) plays a critical role in river-water quality because Mn-oxides serve as sorption sites for contaminant metals. The aim of this study is to understand the seasonal cycling of Mn in an alpine streambed that experiences large spring snowmelt events and the potential responses to changes in snowmelt timing and magnitude. To address this goal, annual variations in river-water/groundwater interaction and Mn (aq) transport were measured and modeled in the bed of East River, Colorado, USA. In observations and numerical models, oxygenated river water containing dissolved organic carbon (DOC) mixes with groundwater rich in Mn (aq) in the streambed. The mixing depth increases during spring snowmelt when river discharge increases, leading to a greater DOC supply to the hyporheic zone and net respiration of Mn-oxides, despite an enhanced supply of oxygen. As groundwater upwelling resumes during the subsequent baseflow period, Mn (aq) -rich groundwater mixes with oxygenated river water, resulting in net accumulation of Mn-oxides until the bed freezes in winter. To explore potential responses of Mn transport to different climate-induced hydrological regimes, three hydrograph scenarios were numerically modeled (historic, low-snow, and storm) for the Rocky Mountain region. In a warming climate, Mn (aq) export to the river decreases, and Mn (aq) oxidation is favored in the upper streambed sediments over more of the year. One important implication is that the streambed may have an increased sorption capacity for metals over more of the year, leading to potential changes in river-water quality.

Colorado↗
USGS1985

Management of ground water and evolving hydrogeologic studies in New Jersey : a heavily urbanized and industrialized state in the northeastern United States

New Jersey is the most densely populated and one of the most industrialized states in the United States. An abundance of freshwater and proximity to major northeastern metropolitan centers has facilitated this development. Pumpage of freshwater from all aquifers in the State in 1980 was 730 million gallons per day (2.76 million cubic meters per day). Management and efficient development of the ground-water resources of the State are the responsibility of the New Jersey Department of Environmental Protection. Laws have been enacted and updated by the State legislature to manage water allocation and to control the disposal of hazardous wastes. Present resource management is guided by the New Jersey Water-Supply Master Plan of 1981. Funding for management activities is partially derived from the sale of state-approved bonds. Effective planning and regional management require accurate and up-to-date hydrologic information and analyses. The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the New Jersey Geological Survey, is conducting three intensive ground-water studies involving the collection and interpretation of hydrologic data to meet the urgent water-management needs of New Jersey. These studies are part of a long-term cooperative program and are funded through the Water-Supply Bond Act of 1981. They began in 1983 and are scheduled to be completed in 1988. The project areas are situated in the New Jersey part of the Atlantic Coastal Plain in and near Atlantic City, Camden, and South River. They range in size from 400 to 1,200 mil (1,040 to 3,120 km2). The studies are designed to define the geology, hydrology, and geochemistry of the local ground-water systems. The results of these studies will enable the State to address more effectively major problems in these areas such as declining water levels, overpumping, saltwater intrusion, and ground-water contamination resulting from the improper disposal of hazardous wastes. Specific objectives of these studies by the U.S. Geological Survey are to (1) develop an accurate and up-to-date hydrogeologic data base, (2) design and implement a data-collection program and establish a computerized information management system, (3) refine the conceptualization of the ground-water flow system, and (4) define the geochemistry of the aquifer system by conducting a water-quality appraisal. The objectives are accomplished by standard hydrogeologic methods. Information concerning hydrogeologic framework, ground-water levels, water use, hydraulic characteristics, and water quality in the study areas is compiled from all available sources. Additional data needed are collected through well inventories, surface geophysical surveys, water-quality samplings, water-level measurements, and a well-drilling program. Interpretation of the flow system is based on the use of standard analytical techniques and digital flow modeling. Calibrated flow models will provide ground-water managers with a mechanism to develop and test regional water-supply strategies. Definition of the geochemistry of the aquifer system is accomplished through a variety of methods which depend on the problems and available data in the particular study area. The approach includes statistical analysis of water-quality data, reaction-path modeling, and determination of the movement of chemical constituents using analytical and numerical modeling techniques. A combined staff of 25 to 30 professionals and technicians from the New Jersey District office of the U.S. Geological Survey is committed to the three studies. The staff has specialists in geohydrology, numerical modeling, geochemistry, geophysics, and computer science. The findings of these studies will be published in data reports, interpretive reports, instructional manuals and journal articles.

New Jersey↗
USGS2006

Groundwater-surface water interaction in the riparian zone of an incised channel, Walnut Creek, Iowa

Riparian zones of many incised channels in agricultural regions are cropped to the channel edge leaving them unvegetated for large portions of the year. In this study we evaluated surface and groundwater interaction in the riparian zone of an incised stream during a spring high flow period using detailed stream stage and hydraulic head data from six wells, and water quality sampling to determine whether the riparian zone can be a source of nitrate pollution to streams. Study results indicated that bank storage of stream water from Walnut Creek during a large storm water runoff event was limited to a narrow 1.6 m zone immediately adjacent to the channel. Nitrate concentrations in riparian groundwater were highest near the incised stream where the unsaturated zone was thickest. Nitrate and dissolved oxygen concentrations and nitrate-chloride ratios increased during a spring recharge period then decreased in the latter portion of the study. We used MODFLOW and MT3DMS to evaluate dilution and denitrification processes that would contribute to decreasing nitrate concentrations in riparian groundwater over time. MT3DMS model simulations were improved with a denitrification rate of 0.02 1/d assigned to the floodplain sediments implying that denitrification plays an important role in reducing nitrate concentrations in groundwater. We conclude that riparian zones of incised channels can potentially be a source of nitrate to streams during spring recharge periods when the near-stream riparian zone is largely unvegetated. ?? 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Journal of Hydrology↗
USGS2016

Geochemistry and hydrology of perched groundwater springs: assessing elevated uranium concentrations at Pigeon Spring relative to nearby Pigeon Mine, Arizona (USA)

The processes that affect water chemistry as the water flows from recharge areas through breccia-pipe uranium deposits in the Grand Canyon region of the southwestern United States are not well understood. Pigeon Spring had elevated uranium in 1982 (44 μg/L), compared to other perched springs (2.7–18 μg/L), prior to mining operations at the nearby Pigeon Mine. Perched groundwater springs in an area around the Pigeon Mine were sampled between 2009 and 2015 and compared with material from the Pigeon Mine to better understand the geochemistry and hydrology of the area. Two general groups of perched groundwater springs were identified from this study; one group is characterized by calcium sulfate type water, low uranium activity ratio 234 U/ 238 U (UAR) values, and a mixture of water with some component of modern water, and the other group by calcium-magnesium sulfate type water, higher UAR values, and radiocarbon ages indicating recharge on the order of several thousand years ago. Multivariate statistical principal components analysis of Pigeon Mine and spring samples indicate Cu, Pb, As, Mn, and Cd concentrations distinguished mining-related leachates from perched groundwater springs. The groundwater potentiometric surface indicates that perched groundwater at Pigeon Mine would likely flow toward the northwest away from Pigeon Spring. The geochemical analysis of the water, sediment and rock samples collected from the Snake Gulch area indicate that the elevated uranium at Pigeon Spring is likely related to a natural source of uranium upgradient from the spring and not likely related to the Pigeon Mine.

Arizona↗
USGS2021

Movement of sediment through a burned landscape: Sediment volume observations and model comparisons in the San Gabriel Mountains, California, USA

Post-wildfire changes to hydrologic and geomorphic systems can lead to widespread sediment redistribution. Understanding how sediment moves through a watershed is crucial for assessing hazards, developing debris flow inundation models, engineering sediment retention solutions, and quantifying the role that disturbances play in landscape evolution. In this study, we used terrestrial and airborne lidar to measure sediment redistribution in the 2016 Fish Fire, in the San Gabriel Mountains in southern California, USA. The lidar areas are in two adjacent watersheds, at spatial scales of 900 m 2 to 4 km 2 , respectively. Terrestrial lidar data were acquired prior to rainfall, and two subsequent surveys show erosional change after rainstorms. Two airborne lidar flights occurred (1) 7 months before, and (2) 14 months after the fire ignition, capturing the erosional effects after rainfall. We found hillslope erosion dominated the overall sediment budget in the first rainy season after wildfire. Only 7% of the total erosion came from the active channel bed and channel banks, and the remaining 93% of eroded sediment was derived from hillslopes. Within the channelized portion of the watershed erosion/deposition could be generally described with topographic metrics used in a stream power equation. Observed sediment volumes were compared with four empirical models and one process-based model. We found that the best predictions of sediment volume were obtained from an empirical model developed in the same physiographic region. Moreover, this study showed that post-wildfire erosion rates in the San Gabriel Mountains attain the same magnitude as millennial time scale bedrock erosion rates.

California↗
USGS2015

Characterizing Congo Basin rainfall and climate using Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite data and limited rain gauge ground observations

Quantitative understanding of Congo River basin hydrological behavior is poor because of the basin’s limited hydrometeorological observation network. In cases such as the Congo basin where ground data are scarce, satellite-based estimates of rainfall, such as those from the joint NASA/JAXA Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM), can be used to quantify rainfall patterns. This study tests and reports the use of limited rainfall gauge data within the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) to recalibrate a TRMM science product (TRMM 3B42, version 6) in characterizing precipitation and climate in the Congo basin. Rainfall estimates from TRMM 3B42, version 6, are compared and adjusted using ground precipitation data from 12 DRC meteorological stations from 1998 to 2007. Adjustment is achieved on a monthly scale by using a regression-tree algorithm. The output is a new, basin-specific estimate of monthly and annual rainfall and climate types across the Congo basin. This new product and the latest version-7 TRMM 3B43 science product are validated by using an independent long-term dataset of historical isohyets. Standard errors of the estimate, root-mean-square errors, and regression coefficients r were slightly and uniformly better with the recalibration from this study when compared with the 3B43 product (mean monthly standard errors of 31 and 40 mm of precipitation and mean r 2 of 0.85 and 0.82, respectively), but the 3B43 product was slightly better in terms of bias estimation (1.02 and 1.00). Despite reasonable doubts that have been expressed in studies of other tropical regions, within the Congo basin the TRMM science product (3B43) performed in a manner that is comparable to the performance of the recalibrated product that is described in this study.

Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology↗
USGS2017

Fraction of young water as an indicator of aquifer vulnerability along two regional flow paths in the Mississippi embayment aquifer system, southeastern USA

Wells along two regional flow paths were sampled to characterize changes in water quality and the vulnerability to contamination of the Memphis aquifer across a range of hydrologic and land-use conditions in the southeastern United States. The flow paths begin in the aquifer outcrop area and end at public supply wells in the confined parts of the aquifer at Memphis, Tennessee. Age-date tracer (e.g. SF 6 , 3 H, 14 C) data indicate that a component of young water is present in the aquifer at most locations along both flow paths, which is consistent with previous studies at Memphis that documented leakage of shallow water into the Memphis aquifer locally where the overlying confining unit is thin or absent. Mixtures of young and old water were most prevalent where long-term pumping for public supply has lowered groundwater levels and induced downward movement of young water. The occurrence of nitrate, chloride and synthetic organic compounds was correlated to the fraction of young water along the flow paths. Oxic conditions persisted for 10 km or more down dip of the confining unit, and the presence of young water in confined parts of the aquifer suggest that contaminants such as nitrate-N have the potential for transport. Long-term monitoring data for one of the flow-path wells screened in the confined part of the aquifer suggest that the vulnerability of the aquifer as indicated by the fraction of young water is increasing over time.

Hydrogeology Journal↗
USGS2012

Seismicity and shear strain in the southern Great Basin of Nevada and California

This study examines the relationship between the distribution of small earthquakes (M L ≤4.3) and mechanisms of strain accumulation and relaxation in an area with long repeat times between large events, the Southern Great Basin Seismic Network (SGBSN) region. The Great Basin is a unique continental extensional province characterized by normal and strike-slip faulting, high heat flow, crust of thin to normal thickness, and high elevations. The SGBSN is operated to provide data to address suitability issues pertaining to Yucca Mountain, Nevada which is being evaluated as a potential site for a national mined geologic nuclear waste repository. Suitability issues include estimation of the probability of occurrence of future damaging earthquakes, the characterization of the mechanisms that drive hydrologic flow, and the identification of fractures (faults) that might act as flow conduits or barriers. This study attempts to explain the distribution of small earthquakes in terms of spatial variations in the shear strain field; where strain concentrates there should be a greater number of small earthquakes. Strain field models are constructed under the assumption that long term fault behavior perturbs an otherwise uniform strain field. These strain field models are then interpreted with regard to the regional tectonics and site suitability issues. Modeling results provide one possible explanation of why earthquake clusters cover regions much larger than the surface projections of any of mapped major faults; clusters in a wide band along and extending northeast of the northern half of the Furnace Creek fault may correspond to elevated shear strains along the fault and a broad cluster in the Pahranagat Shear Zone may be associated with shear strain arising from a distribution of smaller localized faults. The relatively large number of small earthquakes in the southern and eastern portions of the Nevada Test Site is consistent with the strain field models. A minimum in shear strain at Yucca Mountain is predicted by all models consistent with an almost total lack of earthquakes observed there. The region to the west of the Death Valley/Furnace Creek fault system, the portion of the study area with the most active deformation but few small earthquakes, is an area of low shear strain. A possible reason for this is that the fault configuration in the area is optimal for accommodating regional deformation via large earthquakes or creep. While there is also a relative lack of earthquakes at Yucca Mountain, this may be indicative of a lack of accumulating strain energy and thus, a lower potential for a large earthquake.

Journal of Geophysical Research↗
USGS2022

Simulation experiments comparing nonstationary design-flood adjustments based on observed annual peak flows in the conterminous United States

While nonstationary flood frequency analysis (NSFFA) methods have proliferated, few studies have rigorously compared them for modeling changes in both the central tendency and variability of annual peak-flow series, also known as the annual maximum series (AMS), in hydrologically diverse areas. Through Monte Carlo experiments, we appraise five methods for updating estimates of 10- and 100-year floods at gauged sites using synthetic records based on sample moments and change trajectories of observed AMS in the conterminous United States (CONUS). We compare two methods that consider changes in both central tendency and variability - a Gamma generalized linear model estimated with weighted least squares and the Generalized Additive Model for Location, Scale, Shape (GAMLSS) - with a distribution-free approach (quantile regression), and baseline cases assuming stationarity or only changes in central tendency. ‘Trend-space’ plots identify realistic AMS changes for which modeling trends in both central tendency and variability were warranted based on fractional root mean squared errors (fRMSE). They also reveal statistical properties of AMS under which NSFFA models perform especially well or poorly. For instance, quantile regression performed especially well (poorly) under strong negative (positive) skewness. Although the nonstationary LP3 distribution accommodates most AMS with trends well, the sensitivity of NSFFA model performance to different sample moments and trends suggests the need for more flexibility in prescribing design-flood adjustments in the CONUS. A follow-up comparison of regional NSFFA models pooling at-site AMS would further illuminate NSFFA guidance, especially for AMS with properties less conducive to NSFFA modeling, such as positive skewness and increasing variability.

Journal of Hydrology X↗
USGS2023

Developing a stochastic hydrological model for informing lake water level drawdown management

Winter drawdown (WD) is a common lake management tool for multiple purposes such as flood control, aquatic vegetation reduction, and lake infrastructure maintenance. To minimize adverse impacts to a lake’s ecosystem, regulatory agencies may provide managers with general guidelines for drawdown and refill timing, drawdown magnitude, and outflow limitations. However, there is significant uncertainty associated with the potential to meet management targets due to variability in lake characteristics and hydrometeorology of each lake’s basin, making the use of modeling tools a necessity. In this context, we developed a hydrological modeling framework for lake water level drawdown management (HMF-Lake) and evaluated it at 15 Massachusetts lakes where WDs have been applied over multiple years for vegetation control. HMF-Lake is based on the daily lake water balance, with inflows simulated by a lumped rainfall-runoff model (Cemaneige-GR4J) and outflow rate calculated by a modified Target Storage and Release Based Method (TSRB). The model showed a satisfactory performance of simulating historical water levels (0.53 ≤ NSE ≤ 0.86), however, uncertainties from meteorological inputs and TSRB determined lake outflow rate affected the result accuracy. To account for these uncertainties, the model was executed stochastically to assess the ability of study lakes to follow the Massachusetts’ general WD guidelines: drawdown by Dec 1 and fully refilled by Apr 1. By using the stochastic HMF-Lake, the probabilities of each lake to reach the drawdown level by Dec 1 were calculated for different drawdown magnitudes (1–6 ft). The probability results suggest it was generally less possible for most of study lakes to achieve a drawdown of 3 ft or more by Dec 1. Moreover, we employed the stochastic model to derive the annual latest refill starting dates that ensure a 95 % probability of reaching the normal water level by Apr 1. We found starting a refill in March for drawdowns up to 6 ft was feasible for most of study lakes. These results provide lake managers with a quantitative understanding of the lake’s ability to follow the state guidelines. The model may be used to systematically evaluate current WD management strategies at state or regional scales and support adaptive WD management under changing climates.

Massachusetts↗
USGS2016

Sediment supply versus local hydraulic controls on sediment transport and storage in a river with large sediment loads

The Rio Grande in the Big Bend region of Texas, USA, and Chihuahua and Coahuila, Mexico, undergoes rapid geomorphic changes as a result of its large sediment supply and variable hydrology; thus, it is a useful natural laboratory to investigate the relative importance of flow strength and sediment supply in controlling alluvial channel change. We analyzed a suite of sediment transport and geomorphic data to determine the cumulative influence of different flood types on changing channel form. In this study, physically based analyses suggest that channel change in the Rio Grande is controlled by both changes in flow strength and sediment supply over different spatial and temporal scales. Channel narrowing is primarily caused by substantial deposition of sediment supplied to the Rio Grande during tributary-sourced flash floods. Tributary floods have large suspended-sediment concentrations, occur for short durations, and attenuate rapidly downstream in the Rio Grande, depositing much of their sediment in downstream reaches. Long-duration floods on the mainstem have the capacity to enlarge the Rio Grande, and these floods, released from upstream dams, can either erode or deposit sediment in the Rio Grande depending upon the antecedent in-channel sediment supply and the magnitude and duration of the flood. Geomorphic and sediment transport analyses show that the locations and rates of sand erosion and deposition during long-duration floods are most strongly controlled by spatial changes in flow strength, largely through changes in channel slope. However, spatial differences in the in-channel sediment supply regulate sediment evacuation or accumulation over time in long reaches (greater than a kilometer).

Big Bend National Park↗
USGS2011

Climatic controls on the snowmelt hydrology of the northern Rocky Mountains

The northern Rocky Mountains (NRMs) are a critical headwaters region with the majority of water resources originating from mountain snowpack. Observations showing declines in western U.S. snowpack have implications for water resources and biophysical processes in high-mountain environments. This study investigates oceanic and atmospheric controls underlying changes in timing, variability, and trends documented across the entire hydroclimatic-monitoring system within critical NRM watersheds. Analyses were conducted using records from 25 snow telemetry (SNOTEL) stations, 148 1 April snow course records, stream gauge records from 14 relatively unimpaired rivers, and 37 valley meteorological stations. Over the past four decades, midelevation SNOTEL records show a tendency toward decreased snowpack with peak snow water equivalent (SWE) arriving and melting out earlier. Temperature records show significant seasonal and annual decreases in the number of frost days (days ≤0°C) and changes in spring minimum temperatures that correspond with atmospheric circulation changes and surface–albedo feedbacks in March and April. Warmer spring temperatures coupled with increases in mean and variance of spring precipitation correspond strongly to earlier snowmeltout, an increased number of snow-free days, and observed changes in streamflow timing and discharge. The majority of the variability in peak and total annual snowpack and streamflow, however, is explained by season-dependent interannual-to-interdecadal changes in atmospheric circulation associated with Pacific Ocean sea surface temperatures. Over recent decades, increased spring precipitation appears to be buffering NRM total annual streamflow from what would otherwise be greater snow-related declines in hydrologic yield. Results have important implications for ecosystems, water resources, and long-lead-forecasting capabilities.

Idaho, Montana↗
USGS2008

Coupled semivariogram uncertainty of hydrogeological and geophysical data on capture zone uncertainty analysis

This study investigates capture zone uncertainty that relates to the coupled semivariogram uncertainty of hydrogeological and geophysical data. Semivariogram uncertainty is represented by the uncertainty in structural parameters (range, sill, and nugget). We used the beta distribution function to derive the prior distributions of structural parameters. The probability distributions of structural parameters were further updated through the Bayesian approach with the Gaussian likelihood functions. Cokriging of noncollocated pumping test data and electrical resistivity data was conducted to better estimate hydraulic conductivity through autosemivariograms and pseudo-cross-semivariogram. Sensitivities of capture zone variability with respect to the spatial variability of hydraulic conductivity, porosity and aquifer thickness were analyzed using ANOVA. The proposed methodology was applied to the analysis of capture zone uncertainty at the Chicot aquifer in Southwestern Louisiana, where a regional groundwater flow model was developed. MODFLOW-MODPATH was adopted to delineate the capture zone. The ANOVA results showed that both capture zone area and compactness were sensitive to hydraulic conductivity variation. We concluded that the capture zone uncertainty due to the semivariogram uncertainty is much higher than that due to the kriging uncertainty for given semivariograms. In other words, the sole use of conditional variances of kriging may greatly underestimate the flow response uncertainty. Semivariogram uncertainty should also be taken into account in the uncertainty analysis. ?? 2008 ASCE.

Journal of Hydrologic Engineering↗