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USGS2018

Findings and lessons learned from the assessment of the Mexico-United States transboundary San Pedro and Santa Cruz aquifers: The utility of social science in applied hydrologic research

Study Region This study region encompasses the Transboundary San Pedro and Santa Cruz aquifers which are shared between the states of Sonora (Mexico) and Arizona (US). Special regional considerations include a semi-arid climate, basin-fill aquifers with predominantly montane recharge areas, economic drivers in the mining, trade, and military sectors, groundwater-dependent cities with expanding cones of depression, interbasin groundwater transfers, ground- and surface-water contamination, and protected aquatic and riparian habitats that act as significant migration corridors for hundreds of species, including some that are threatened and endangered. Study Focus We focus on lessons learned from the hydrologic assessment of the Transboundary San Pedro and Santa Cruz aquifers. We conducted the work, in two phases: (1) laying the groundwork and (2) implementation. The “laying the groundwork” phase consisted of binational meetings with stakeholders and key actors (agencies and individuals), and the development of an understanding of the physical, institutional, historical, and socio-political context. This led to signing of the binational Transboundary Aquifer Assessment Program (TAAP) agreement in 2009 and detailed the process for cooperation and coordination in the assessment of shared aquifers. The implementation phase began with an agreement to proceed with the study of four “focus” aquifers (Santa Cruz, San Pedro, Mesilla (Conejos-Médanos in Mexico), and Hueco Bolson (Bolsón del Hueco in Mexico)) and development of associated technical teams. Though we do include a brief discussion of the lessons learned from the physical science portion of the study, the results have been described and published elsewhere. The bulk of the paper instead focuses on the findings and lessons learned from the integration of social-science perspectives into a largely physical-science based program, since there is a growing recognition of the need for this type of approach especially in the management and assessment of transboundary aquifers. New Hydrological Insights for the Region The Sonora-Arizona effort succeeded because both countries were adequately represented, and because of flexibility of skills and ability of teams comprising both university and government scientists. Teams included social and earth scientists. Including the social sciences was critical to research design and implementation, and to addressing the cultural, institutional, and socio-political contexts of transboundary aquifer assessment. Significant components of the continuing implementation phase include strategic planning, data compilation and analysis, cross-border integration of datasets, geophysical and geochemical surveys, and internal, peer, and stakeholder engagement.

Arizona, Sonora↗

USGS2017

Prediction and visualization of redox conditions in the groundwater of Central Valley, California

Regional-scale, three-dimensional continuous probability models, were constructed for aspects of redox conditions in the groundwater system of the Central Valley, California. These models yield grids depicting the probability that groundwater in a particular location will have dissolved oxygen (DO) concentrations less than selected threshold values representing anoxic groundwater conditions, or will have dissolved manganese (Mn) concentrations greater than selected threshold values representing secondary drinking water-quality contaminant levels (SMCL) and health-based screening levels (HBSL). The probability models were constrained by the alluvial boundary of the Central Valley to a depth of approximately 300 m. Probability distribution grids can be extracted from the 3-D models at any desired depth, and are of interest to water-resource managers, water-quality researchers, and groundwater modelers concerned with the occurrence of natural and anthropogenic contaminants related to anoxic conditions. Models were constructed using a Boosted Regression Trees (BRT) machine learning technique that produces many trees as part of an additive model and has the ability to handle many variables, automatically incorporate interactions, and is resistant to collinearity. Machine learning methods for statistical prediction are becoming increasing popular in that they do not require assumptions associated with traditional hypothesis testing. Models were constructed using measured dissolved oxygen and manganese concentrations sampled from 2767 wells within the alluvial boundary of the Central Valley, and over 60 explanatory variables representing regional-scale soil properties, soil chemistry, land use, aquifer textures, and aquifer hydrologic properties. Models were trained on a USGS dataset of 932 wells, and evaluated on an independent hold-out dataset of 1835 wells from the California Division of Drinking Water. We used cross-validation to assess the predictive performance of models of varying complexity, as a basis for selecting final models. Trained models were applied to cross-validation testing data and a separate hold-out dataset to evaluate model predictive performance by emphasizing three model metrics of fit: Kappa; accuracy; and the area under the receiver operator characteristic curve (ROC). The final trained models were used for mapping predictions at discrete depths to a depth of 304.8 m. Trained DO and Mn models had accuracies of 86–100%, Kappa values of 0.69–0.99, and ROC values of 0.92–1.0. Model accuracies for cross-validation testing datasets were 82–95% and ROC values were 0.87–0.91, indicating good predictive performance. Kappas for the cross-validation testing dataset were 0.30–0.69, indicating fair to substantial agreement between testing observations and model predictions. Hold-out data were available for the manganese model only and indicated accuracies of 89–97%, ROC values of 0.73–0.75, and Kappa values of 0.06–0.30. The predictive performance of both the DO and Mn models was reasonable, considering all three of these fit metrics and the low percentages of low-DO and high-Mn events in the data.

California↗

USGS2015

A comparison of thermal infrared to fiber-optic distributed temperature sensing for evaluation of groundwater discharge to surface water

Groundwater has a predictable thermal signature that can be used to locate discrete zones of discharge to surface water. As climate warms, surface water with strong groundwater influence will provide habitat stability and refuge for thermally stressed aquatic species, and is therefore critical to locate and protect. Alternatively, these discrete seepage locations may serve as potential point sources of contaminants from polluted aquifers. This study compares two increasingly common heat tracing methods to locate discrete groundwater discharge: direct-contact measurements made with fiber-optic distributed temperature sensing (FO-DTS) and remote sensing measurements collected with thermal infrared (TIR) cameras. FO-DTS is used to make high spatial resolution (typically m) thermal measurements through time within the water column using temperature-sensitive cables. The spatialtemporal data can be analyzed with statistical measures to reveal zones of groundwater influence, however, the personnel requirements, time to install, and time to georeference the cables can be burdensome, and the control units need constant calibration. In contrast, TIR data collection, either from handheld, airborne, or satellite platforms, can quickly capture point-in-time evaluations of groundwater seepage zones across large scales. However the remote nature of TIR measurements means they can be adversely influenced by a number of environmental and physical factors, and the measurements are limited to the surface skin temperature of water features. We present case studies from a range of lentic to lotic aquatic systems to identify capabilities and limitations of both technologies and highlight situations in which one or the other might be a better instrument choice for locating groundwater discharge. FO-DTS performs well in all systems across seasons, but data collection was limited spatially by practical considerations of cable installation. TIR is found to consistently locate groundwater seepage zones above and along the streambank, but submerged seepage zones are only well identified in shallow systems (e.g. <0.5 m depth) with moderate flow. Winter data collection, when groundwater is relatively warm and buoyant, increases the water surface expression of discharge zones in shallow systems.

Massachusetts, Michigan, Montana, New York, Pennsy↗

USGS2004

Use of chemical and isotopic tracers to assess nitrate contamination and ground-water age, Woodville Karst Plain, USA

Concerns regarding ground-water contamination in the Woodville Karst Plain have arisen due to a steady increase in nitrate-N concentrations (0.25-0.90 mg/l) during the past 30 years in Wakulla Springs, a large regional discharge point for water (9.6 m3/s) from the Upper Floridan aquifer (UFA). Multiple isotopic and chemical tracers were used with geochemical and lumped-parameter models (exponential mixing (EM), dispersion, and combined exponential piston flow) to assess: (1) the sources and extent of nitrate contamination of ground water and springs, and (2) mean transit times (ages) of ground water. Delta 15N-NO3 values (1.7-13.8???) indicated that nitrate in ground water originated from localized sources of inorganic fertilizer and human/animal wastes. Nitrate in spring waters (??15N-NO3=5.3-8.9???) originated from both inorganic and organic N sources. Nitrate-N concentrations (<0.02-16 mg/l) were highly variable both spatially and vertically in the oxic UFA, based on water samples from 46 wells and four springs collected from 1997 to 2000. During high-flow conditions, spring waters had decreased nitrate and increased DOC concentrations that resulted from mixtures of 20-95% surface water. Although higher nitrate-N concentrations (>1.0 mg/l) were associated with shallow wells (open intervals less than 15 m below land surface), elevated nitrate concentrations in deeper wells are consistent with mixtures of water from shallow and deep zones in the UFA as indicated from geochemical mixing models and the distribution of mean transit times (5-90 years) estimated using lumped-parameter flow models. Ground water with mean transit times of 10 years or less tended to have higher dissolved organic carbon concentrations, lower dissolved solids, and lower calcite saturation indices than older waters, indicating mixing with nearby surface water that directly recharges the aquifer through sinkholes. Significantly higher values of pH, magnesium, dolomite saturation index, and phosphate in springs and deep water (>45 m) relative to a shallow zone (<45 m) were associated with longer ground-water transit times (50-90 years). Chemical differences with depth in the aquifer result from deep regional flow of water recharged through low permeability sediments (clays and clayey sands of the Hawthorn Formation) that overlie the UFA upgradient from the karst plain.

Journal of Hydrology↗

USGS1992

Pesticide residues in ground water of the San Joaquin Valley, California

A regional assessment of non-point-source contamination of pesticide residues in ground water was made of the San Joaquin Valley, an intensively farmed and irrigated structural trough in central California. About 10% of the total pesticide use in the USA is in the San Joaquin Valley. Pesticides detected include atrazine, bromacil, 2.4-DP, diazinon, dibromochloropropane, 1,2-dibromoethane, dicamba, 1,2-dichloropropane, diuron, prometon, prometryn, propazine and simazine. All are soil applied except diazinon. Pesticide leaching is dependent on use patterns, soil texture, total organic carbon in soil, pesticide half-life and depth to water table. Leaching is enhanced by flood-irrigation methods except where the pesticide is foliar applied such as diazinon. Soils in the western San Joaquin Valley are fine grained and are derived primarily from marine shales of the Coast Ranges. Although shallow ground water is present, the fewest number of pesticides were detected in this region. The fine-grained soil inhibits pesticide leaching because of either low vertical permeability or high surface area; both enhance adsorption on to solid phases. Soils of the valley floor tend to be fine grained and have low vertical permeability. Soils in the eastern part of the valley are coarse grained with low total organic carbon and are derived from Sierra Nevada granites. Most pesticide leaching is in these alluvial soils, particularly in areas where depth to ground water is less than 30m. The areas currently most susceptible to pesticide leaching are eastern Fresno and Tulare Counties. Tritium in water molecules is an indicator of aquifer recharge with water of recent origin. Pesticide residues transported as dissolved species were not detected in non-tritiated water. Although pesticides were not detected in all samples containing high tritium, these samples are indicative of the presence of recharge water that interacted with agricultural soils.

Journal of Hydrology↗

USGS2020

Pavement alters delivery of sediment and fallout radionuclides to urbanstreams

Sediment from urban impervious surfaces has the potential to be an important vector for contaminants, particularly where stormwater culverts and other buried channels draining large impervious areas exit from underground pipes into open channels. To better understand urban sediment sources and their relation to fallout radionuclides, we collected samples of rainfall, urban sediment (pavement sediment, topsoil), streambank sediment, and fluvial sediment (suspended sediment and bed sediment) for 7 Be, 210 Pb ex , and 137 Cs analysis. The results indicate that each rainfall event tags pavement sediment with elevated activities of 7 Be and 210 Pb ex such that runoff from impervious surfaces in the buried channel part of the stream network contains the highest activities. Pavement sediment, because it is characteristically a thin veneer, has a small mass to rainwater ratio resulting in a greater tagging of 7 Be and 210 Pb ex activity than does topsoil on a per gram basis. An unmixing model indicated that suspended-sediment samples collected at the culvert outlet from the buried-channel network are from pavement sediment sources (45 ± 25%) with a smaller component of topsoil (22 ± 19%), and a component from streambanks (32 ± 35%) that we infer to be older channel material and subsoil eroded from within the culvert system. Downstream from the culvert, suspended sediment collected from the open-channel parts of the stream had 7 Be and 210 Pb ex activities that were substantially reduced by the contribution of sediment from streambanks (57 ± 15%), with pavement contributions decreasing to 15 (±9%) and topsoil contributing 28 (±7%). The results highlight the utility of 7 Be, 210 Pb ex , and 137 Cs as tracers of urban sediment sources, resulting in a unique radionuclide signature for urban watersheds compared to other sediment-source settings.

Maryland↗

USGS2014

Practical limitations on the use of diurnal temperature signals to quantify groundwater upwelling

Groundwater upwelling to streams creates unique habitat by influencing stream water quality and temperature; upwelling zones also serve as vectors for contamination when groundwater is degraded. Temperature time series data acquired along vertical profiles in the streambed have been applied to simple analytical models to determine rates of vertical fluid flux. These models are based on the downward propagation characteristics (amplitude attenuation and phase-lag) of the surface diurnal signal. Despite the popularity of these models, there are few published characterizations of moderate-to-strong upwelling. We attribute this limitation to the thermodynamics of upwelling, under which the downward conductive signal transport from the streambed interface occurs opposite the upward advective fluid flux. Governing equations describing the advection–diffusion of heat within the streambed predict that under upwelling conditions, signal amplitude attenuation will increase, but, counterintuitively, phase-lag will decrease. Therefore the extinction (measurable) depth of the diurnal signal is very shallow, but phase lag is also short, yielding low signal to noise ratio and poor model sensitivity. Conversely, amplitude attenuation over similar sensor spacing is strong, yielding greater potential model sensitivity. Here we present streambed thermal time series over a range of moderate to strong upwelling sites in the Quashnet River, Cape Cod, Massachusetts. The predicted inverse relationship between phase-lag and rate of upwelling was observed in the field data over a range of conditions, but the observed phase-lags were consistently shorter than predicted. Analytical solutions for fluid flux based on signal amplitude attenuation return results consistent with numerical models and physical seepage meters, but the phase-lag analytical model results are generally unreasonable. Through numerical modeling we explore reasons why phase-lag may have been over-predicted by the analytical models, and develop guiding relations of diurnal temperature signal extinction depth based on stream diurnal signal amplitude, upwelling magnitude, and streambed thermal properties that will be useful in designing future experiments.

Journal of Hydrology↗

USGS2001

Processes regulating watershed chemical export during snowmelt, fraser experimental forest, Colorado

In the Central Rocky Mountains, snowfall dominates precipitation. Airborne contaminants retained in the snowpack can affect high elevation surface water chemistry during snowmelt. At the Fraser Experimental Forest (FEF), located west of the Continental Divide in Central Colorado, snowmelt dominates the annual hydrograph, and accounts for >95% of annual stream water discharge. During the winters of 1989-1993, we measured precipitation inputs, snowpack water equivalent (SWE) and ion content, and stream water chemistry every 7-10 days along a 3150-3500 m elevation gradient in the subalpine and alpine Lexen Creek watershed. The study objectives were to (1) quantify the distribution of SWE and snowpack chemical content with elevation and aspect, (2) quantify snowmelt rates, temperature of soil, snowpack, and air with elevation and aspect, and (3) use change in upstream-downstream water chemistry during snowmelt to better define alpine and subalpine flowpaths. The SWE increased with elevation (P < 0.001) and was greater on NE aspects (P < 0.05). Subalpine soils were unfrozen. Snowmelt occurred throughout winter at low elevation (3150 m), SE aspect stations. By snowpack peak water equivalent (PWE), the snowpack lost about a third (0.24 m) of its moisture. The subalpine snowpack had warm (> - 3??C) temperatures throughout winter which resulted in significant snowpack ion loss. By snowpack PWE in mid May, the snowpack had lost almost half the cumulative precipitation H+, NH4+, and SO42- inputs and a third of the NO3- input. Windborne soil particulate inputs late in winter increased snowpack base cation content. Variation in subalpine SWE and snowpack ion content with elevation and aspect, and wind redistribution of snowfall in the alpine resulted in large year-to-year differences in the timing and magnitude of SWE, PWE, and snowpack ion content. The alpine stream water ion concentrations changed little during snowmelt indicating meltwater passed quickly through surface porous soils and was well mixed before entering the stream. Conversely, subalpine stream water chemistry was diluted during snowmelt suggesting much melt water moved to the stream as shallow subsurface lateral flow. Published by Elsevier Science B.V.

Journal of Hydrology↗

USGS2006

Research plan and preliminary results: A field research site for emerging contaminants in Iowa

Research has recently documented the prevalence of a wide variety of pharmaceuticals and other emerging contaminants (ECs) in streams across the United States. Wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs) have been found to be an important source and collection point of ECs to streams as many ECs are incompletely removed during treatment. To investigate the complex in-stream processes (e.g., dilution, sorption, degradation, dispersion, etc.) that can affect ECs following their input from a WWTP and determining if such input is having an effect on the aquatic ecosystem requires the integration of multi-disciplinary efforts at a carefully selected field site. Preliminary work has identified an 8-km reach of Fourmile Creek in central Iowa as an ideal research site to investigate such important research questions pertaining to ECs. Unique aspects of Fourmile Creek included: (1) it single source effluent-dominated stream, (2) background data document the input of a wide variety of ECs from WWTP discharge, (3) small basin size, (4) relatively simple flow system, (5) background data suggest that undefined processes are taking place decreasing the level of select ECs during stream transport, (6) the WWTP uses a treatment technology (activated sludge) typical of many towns in Iowa and the United States (7) a hydrogeologic setting of a low-gradient, small stream (average discharge less than 1.41 m³/s) in glacial drift is typical of many areas in Iowa and across the Midwest, and (8) the existence of a low-head clam approximately 2 km upstream of the WWTP outfall allowing more accurate "above WWTP" and "below WWTP" comparisons in aquatic ecosystems. Furthermore, the WWTP is scheduled to close by 2011 providing a unique opportunity to determine how stream hydrology, water chemistry and aquatic biota react to the removal of the primary source of flow and ECs in this system. This will allow a novel "before" and "after" assessment not previously available in EC research. Research to date at the site has included installation of a streamflow gauging station, dye-tracing tests (to determine water travel times), Lagrangian water-quality sampling at two flow/water temperature regimes, and sampling for ECs in bed sediment. Selected fish have been collected for analysis and identification. In addition, basic fish community and fish health assessment for different seasons and spawning conditions are being analyzed. The research "framework" is unique at Fourmile Creek for investigating the important question of how ECs are transported through the environment and if the presence of such compounds is having a deleterious effect on aquatic ecosystems.

Iowa↗

USGS2013

Estimating instream constituent loads using replicate synoptic sampling, Peru Creek, Colorado

The synoptic mass balance approach is often used to evaluate constituent mass loading in streams affected by mine drainage. Spatial profiles of constituent mass load are used to identify sources of contamination and prioritize sites for remedial action. This paper presents a field scale study in which replicate synoptic sampling campaigns are used to quantify the aggregate uncertainty in constituent load that arises from (1) laboratory analyses of constituent and tracer concentrations, (2) field sampling error, and (3) temporal variation in concentration from diel constituent cycles and/or source variation. Consideration of these factors represents an advance in the application of the synoptic mass balance approach by placing error bars on estimates of constituent load and by allowing all sources of uncertainty to be quantified in aggregate; previous applications of the approach have provided only point estimates of constituent load and considered only a subset of the possible errors. Given estimates of aggregate uncertainty, site specific data and expert judgement may be used to qualitatively assess the contributions of individual factors to uncertainty. This assessment can be used to guide the collection of additional data to reduce uncertainty. Further, error bars provided by the replicate approach can aid the investigator in the interpretation of spatial loading profiles and the subsequent identification of constituent source areas within the watershed. The replicate sampling approach is applied to Peru Creek, a stream receiving acidic, metal-rich effluent from the Pennsylvania Mine. Other sources of acidity and metals within the study reach include a wetland area adjacent to the mine and tributary inflow from Cinnamon Gulch. Analysis of data collected under low-flow conditions indicates that concentrations of Al, Cd, Cu, Fe, Mn, Pb, and Zn in Peru Creek exceed aquatic life standards. Constituent loading within the study reach is dominated by effluent from the Pennsylvania Mine, with over 50% of the Cd, Cu, Fe, Mn, and Zn loads attributable to a collapsed adit near the top of the study reach. These estimates of mass load may underestimate the effect of the Pennsylvania Mine as leakage from underground mine workings may contribute to metal loads that are currently attributed to the wetland area. This potential leakage confounds the evaluation of remedial options and additional research is needed to determine the magnitude and location of the leakage.

Colorado↗

USGS2014

Characterization of the porosity distribution in the upper part of the karst Biscayne aquifer using common offset ground penetrating radar, Everglades National Park, Florida

The karst Biscayne aquifer is characterized by a heterogeneous spatial arrangement of porosity and hydraulic conductivity, making conceptualization difficult. The Biscayne aquifer is the primary source of drinking water for millions of people in south Florida; thus, information concerning the distribution of karst features that concentrate the groundwater flow and affect contaminant transport is critical. The principal purpose of the study was to investigate the ability of two-dimensional ground penetrating radar (GPR) to rapidly characterize porosity variability in the karst Biscayne aquifer in south Florida. An 800-m-long GPR transect of a previously investigated area at the Long Pine Key Nature Trail in Everglades National Park, collected in fast acquisition common offset mode, shows hundreds of diffraction hyperbolae. The distribution of diffraction hyperbolae was used to estimate electromagnetic (EM) wave velocity at each diffraction location and to assess both horizontal and vertical changes in velocity within the transect. A petrophysical model (complex refractive index model or CRIM) was used to estimate total bulk porosity. A set of common midpoint surveys at selected locations distributed along the common-offset transect also were collected for comparison with the common offsets and were used to constrain one-dimensional (1-D) distributions of porosity with depth. Porosity values for the saturated Miami Limestone ranged between 25% and 41% for common offset GPR surveys, and between 23% and 39% for common midpoint GPR surveys. Laboratory measurements of porosity in five whole-core samples from the saturated part of the aquifer in the study area ranged between 7.1% and 41.8%. GPR estimates of porosity were found to be valid only under saturated conditions; other limitations are related to the vertical resolution of the GPR signal and the volume of the material considered by the measurement methodology. Overall, good correspondence between GPR estimates and the direct porosity values from the whole-core samples confirms the ability of GPR common offset surveys to provide rapid characterization of porosity variability in the Biscayne aquifer. The common offset survey method has several advantages: (1) improved time efficiency in comparison to other GPR acquisition modes such as common midpoints; and (2) enhanced lateral continuity of porosity estimates, particularly when compared to porosity measurements on 1-D samples such as rock cores. The results also support the presence of areas of low EM wave velocity or high porosity under saturated conditions, causing velocity pull-down areas and apparent sag features in the reflection record. This study shows that GPR can be a useful tool for improving understanding of the petrophysical properties of highly heterogeneous systems such as karst aquifers, and thus may assist with the development of more accurate groundwater flow models, such as those used for restoration efforts in the Everglades.

Florida↗

USGS1989

Chemical hydrogeology in natural and contaminated environments

Chemical hydrogeology, including organic and inorganic aspects, has contributed to an increased understanding of groundwater flow systems, geologic processes, and stressed environments. Most of the basic principles of inorganic-chemical hydrogeology were first established by investigations of organic-free, regional-scale systems for which simplifying assumptions could be made. The problems of groundwater contamination are causing a shift of emphasis to microscale systems that are dominated by organic-chemical reactions and that are providing an impetus for the study of naturally occurring and manmade organic material. Along with the decrease in scale, physical and chemical heterogeneity become major controls. Current investigations and those selected from the literature demonstrate that heterogeneity increases in importance as the study site decreases from regional-scale to macroscale to microscale. Increased understanding of regional-scale flow systems is demonstrated by selection of investigations of carbonate and volcanic aquifers to show how applications of present-day concepts and techniques can identify controlling chemical reactions and determine their rates; identify groundwater flow paths and determine flow velocity; and determine aquifer characteristics. The role of chemical hydrogeology in understanding geologic processes of macroscale systems is exemplified by selection of investigations in coastal aquifers. Phenomena associated with the mixing zone generated by encroaching sea water include an increase in heterogeneity of permeability, diagenesis of minerals, and formation of geomorphic features, such as caves, lagoons, and bays. Ore deposits of manganese and uranium, along with a simulation model of ore-forming fluids, demonstrate the influence of heterogeneity and of organic compounds on geochemical reactions associated with genesis of mineral deposits. In microscale environments, importance of heterogeneity and consequences of organic reactions in determining the distribution and concentrations cf. constituents are provided by several studies, including infiltration of sewage effluent and migration of creosote in coastal plain aquifers. These studies show that heterogeneity and the dominance of organically controlled reactions greatly increase the complexity of investigations.Current investigations and those selected from the literature demonstrate that heterogeneity increases in importance as the study site decreases from regional-scale to macroscale to microscale. Increased understanding of regional-scale flow systems is demonstrated by selection of investigations of carbonate and volcanic aquifers to show how application of present-day concepts and techniques can identify controlling chemical reactions and determine their rates; identify groundwater flow paths and determine flow velocity; and determine aquifer characteristics. The role of chemical hydrogeology in understanding geologic processes of macroscale systems is exemplified by selection of investigations in coastal aquifers. Ore deposits of manganese and uranium, along with a simulation model of ore-forming fluids, demonstrate the influence of heterogeneity and of organic compounds on geochemical reactions associated with genesis of mineral deposits. In microscale environments, importance of heterogeneity is illustrated by studies of infiltration of sewage effluent and migration of creosote in coastal plain aquifers.

Journal of Hydrology↗

USGS2018

Metamodeling and mapping of nitrate flux in the unsaturated zone and groundwater, Wisconsin, USA

Nitrate contamination of groundwater in agricultural areas poses a major challenge to the sustainability of water resources. Aquifer vulnerability models are useful tools that can help resource managers identify areas of concern, but quantifying nitrogen (N) inputs in such models is challenging, especially at large spatial scales. We sought to improve regional nitrate (NO 3 − ) input functions by characterizing unsaturated zone NO 3 − transport to groundwater through use of surrogate, machine-learning metamodels of a process-based N flux model. The metamodels used boosted regression trees (BRTs) to relate mappable landscape variables to parameters and outputs of a previous “vertical flux method” (VFM) applied at sampled wells in the Fox, Wolf, and Peshtigo (FWP) river basins in northeastern Wisconsin. In this context, the metamodels upscaled the VFM results throughout the region, and the VFM parameters and outputs are the metamodel response variables. The study area encompassed the domain of a detailed numerical model that provided additional predictor variables, including groundwater recharge, to the metamodels. We used a statistical learning framework to test a range of model complexities to identify suitable hyperparameters of the six BRT metamodels corresponding to each response variable of interest: NO 3 − source concentration factor (which determines the local NO 3 − input concentration); unsaturated zone travel time; NO 3 − concentration at the water table in 1980, 2000, and 2020 (three separate metamodels); and NO 3 − “extinction depth”, the eventual steady state depth of the NO 3 − front. The final metamodels were trained to 129 wells within the active numerical flow model area, and considered 58 mappable predictor variables compiled in a geographic information system (GIS). These metamodels had training and cross-validation testing R 2 values of 0.52 – 0.86 and 0.22 – 0.38, respectively, and predictions were compiled as maps of the above response variables. Testing performance was reasonable, considering that we limited the metamodel predictor variables to mappable factors as opposed to using all available VFM input variables. Relationships between metamodel predictor variables and mapped outputs were generally consistent with expectations, e.g. with greater source concentrations and NO 3 − at the groundwater table in areas of intensive crop use and well drained soils. Shorter unsaturated zone travel times in poorly drained areas likely indicated preferential flow through clay soils, and a tendency for fine grained deposits to collocate with areas of shallower water table. Numerical estimates of groundwater recharge were important in the metamodels and may have been a proxy for N input and redox conditions in the northern FWP, which had shallow predicted NO 3 − extinction depth. The metamodel results provide proof-of-concept for regional characterization of unsaturated zone NO 3 − transport processes in a statistical framework based on readily mappable GIS input variables.

Wisconsin↗