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USGS2020

Ontogenetic shifts in mesohabitat use of young-of-year Rio Grande blue sucker in the Big Bend region of the Rio Grande

Alteration of flow regimes by anthropogenic activities is one of the primary environmental problems in riverine systems. Understanding how hydrologic conditions can affect ontogenetic habitat shifts of imperiled fishes is important in order to develop conservation and management strategies for each life-history stage. We examined relationships between the abundance of young-of-the-year (YOY) Rio Grande Blue Sucker and various abiotic variables in the Trans-Pecos region of the Rio Grande in Texas, USA. We used open N -mixture modeling to better understand the factors affecting ontogenetic habitat shifts of the imperiled aridland river fish. In addition, we examined differences in Rio Grande Blue Sucker total length among three mesohabitat types (pool, riffle, and run). The results of open N -mixture modeling suggested that as pool area increased, the abundance of YOY Rio Grande Blue Sucker increased. Total length of YOY Rio Grande Blue Sucker also significantly differed among the three mesohabitat types. The total lengths of YOY Rio Grande Blue Sucker in pool habitats were lower than in other mesohabitats, suggesting that YOY Rio Grande Blue Sucker undergo ontogenetic habitat shifts into greater current velocity habitats as they grow. The habitat associations we documented support the growing body of research emphasizing the importance of maintaining sufficient and appropriately timed flows to avoid prolonged low flows that limit habitat availability for native fish species during sensitive life stages in the Rio Grande and other aridland rivers.

Texas↗

USGS2021

Demography of the Oregon spotted frog along a hydrologically modified river

Altered flow regimes can contribute to dissociation between life history strategies and environmental conditions, leading to reduced persistence reported for many wildlife populations inhabiting regulated rivers. The Oregon spotted frog ( Rana pretiosa ) is a threatened species occurring in floodplains, ponds, and wetlands in the Pacific Northwest with a core range in Oregon, USA. All life stages of R. pretiosa are reliant on aquatic habitats, and inundation patterns across the phenological timeline can have implications for population success. We conducted capture–mark–recapture (CMR) sampling of adult and subadult R. pretiosa at three sites along the Deschutes River downstream from two dams that regulate flows. We related the seasonal extent of inundated habitat at each site to monthly survival probabilities using a robust design CMR model. We also developed matrix projection models to simulate population dynamics into the future under current river flows. Monthly survival was strongly associated with the extent and variability of inundated habitat, suggesting some within-season fluctuations at higher water levels could be beneficial. Seasonal survival was lowest in the winter for all three sites, owing to limited water availability and the greater number of months within this season relative to other seasons. Population growth for the two river-connected sites was most strongly linked to adult survival, whereas population growth at the river-disconnected site was most strongly tied to survival in juvenile stages. This research identifies population effects of seasonally limited water and highlights conservation potential of enhancing survival of particularly influential life stages.

Oregon↗

USGS2008

Watershed influences and in-lake processes - A regional-scale approach to monitoring a water-supply reservoir, Lake Houston near Houston, Texas

Created in 1954 by an impoundment on the San Jacinto River, Lake Houston currently (2008) supplies about 20 percent of the total source water for the city of Houston. Houston historically has relied on ground water as the major source of supply. As a result of regulations to limit ground-water withdrawals because of associated land subsidence (effective in 2010), the lake will become the primary source of water supply for the city in the future. Since 1983 the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the City of Houston, has collected water-quality and lake-level data at Lake Houston, as well as discharge and intermittent water-quality data at its major inflowing tributaries. Previous studies indicate that Lake Houston is shallow, eutrophic, light limited and has a variable hydrologic regime with water residence times ranging from 12 hours to 400 days. Spring Creek, a tributary that drains the western, more urban, part of the Lake Houston watershed, contributes more sediment and nutrients than East Fork San Jacinto River, a tributary that drains the more rural, eastern part of the watershed. This fact sheet explains the importance of monitoring for management of the resource and describes ongoing research in the Lake Houston watershed by the USGS and the City.

Texas↗

USGS2005

A decrease in discharge-normalized DOC export by the Yukon River during summer through autumn

Climate warming is having a dramatic effect on the vegetation distribution and carbon cycling of terrestrial subarctic and arctic ecosystems. Here, we present hydrologic evidence that warming is also affecting the export of dissolved organic carbon and bicarbonate (DOC and HCO 3 − ) at the large basin scale. In the 831,400 km 2 Yukon River basin, water discharge (Q) corrected DOC export significantly decreased during the growing season from 1978–80 to 2001–03, indicating a major shift in terrestrial to aquatic C transfer. We conclude that decreased DOC export, relative to total summer through autumn Q, results from increased flow path, residence time, and microbial mineralization of DOC in the soil active layer and groundwater. Counter to current predictions, we argue that continued warming could result in decreased DOC export to the Bering Sea and Arctic Ocean by major subarctic and arctic rivers, due to increased respiration of organic C on land.

Geophysical Research Letters↗

USGS2023

A continuous classification of the 476,697 lakes of the conterminous US based on geographic archetypes

A variety of classification approaches are used to facilitate understanding, prediction, monitoring, and the management of lakes. However, broad-scale applicability of current approaches is limited by either the need for in situ lake data, incompatibilities among approaches, or a lack of empirical testing of approaches based on ex situ data. We developed a new geographic classification approach for 476,697 lakes ≥ 1 ha in the conterminous U.S. based on lake archetypes representing end members along gradients of multiple geographic features. We identified seven lake archetypes with distinct combinations of climate, hydrologic, geologic, topographic, and morphometric properties. Individual lakes were assigned weights for each of the seven archetypes such that groups of lakes with similar combinations of archetype weights tended to cluster spatially (although not strictly contiguous) and to have similar limnological properties (e.g., concentrations of nutrients, chlorophyll a (Chl a ), and dissolved organic carbon). Further, archetype lake classification improved commonly measured limnological relationships (e.g., between nutrients and Chl a ) compared to a global model; a discrete archetype classification slightly outperformed an ecoregion classification; and considering lakes as continuous mixtures of archetypes in a more complex model further improved fit. Overall, archetype classification of US lakes as continuous mixtures of geographic features improved understanding and prediction of lake responses to limnological drivers and should help researchers and managers better characterize and forecast lake states and responses to environmental change.

conterminous United States↗

USGS2010

The potential influence of changing climate on the persistence of salmonids of the inland west

The Earth's climate warmed steadily during the 20th century, and mean annual air temperatures are estimated to have increased by 0.6°C (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2007). Although many cycles of warming and cooling have occurred in the past, the most recent warming period is unique in its rate and magnitude of change (Siegenthaler and others, 2005) and in its association with anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change , 2007). The climate in the western United States warmed in concert with the global trend but at an accelerated rate (+0.8°C during the 20th century; Saunders and others, 2008). The region could also prove especially sensitive to future changes because the relatively small human population is growing rapidly, as are demands on limited water supplies. Regional hydrological patterns are dominated by seasonal snow accumulation at upper elevations. Most of the region is relatively dry, and both terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems are strongly constrained b y water availability (Barnett and others, 2008; Brown and others, 2008). Stream environments are dynamic and climatically extreme, and salmonid fishes are the dominant elements of the native biodiversity (McPhail and Lindsey, 1986; Waples and others, 2008). Salmonids have broad economic and ecologic importance, but a century of intensive water resource development, nonnative fish stocking, and land use has significantly reduced many populations and several taxa are now protected under the Endangered Species Act (Thurow and others, 1997; Trotter, 2008). Because salmonids require relatively pristine, cold water environments and are often isolated in headwater habitats, members of this group may be especially vulnerable to the effects of a warming climate (Keleher and Rahel, 1996; Rieman and others, 2007; Williams and others, 2009). Warming during the 20th century drove a series of environmental trends that have profound implications for many aspects of salmonid habitat, including disturbance regimes such as wildfire, and unfavorable changes to thermal and hydrologic properties of aquatic systems. Warmer air temperatures have been associated with decreased winter snow accumulations, have accelerated snowmelt, and have advanced the timing of peak runoff by several days to weeks across most of western North America (Stewart and others, 2005; Barnett and others, 2008). Less snow and earlier runoff decrease aquifer recharge, make less water available for groundwater inputs to streams, and are contributing to widespread decreases in summer low flows (Stewart and others, 2005; Rood and others, 2008; Luce and Holden 2009). Interannual variability in stream flow is increasing, as is the persistence of multi-year extreme conditions (McCabe and others, 2004; Pagano and Garen 2005). In many areas of western North America, flood risks have increased in association with warmer temperatures during the 20th century (Hamlet and Lettenmaier, 2005). Streams where midwinter temperatures are near freezing have proven especially sensitive to increased flooding because of associated transitional hydrological patterns (mixtures of rainfall and snowmelt) and propensity for occasional rain-on-snow events to rapidly melt winter snowpack and generate large floods (Hamlet and Lettenmaier, 2005). Stream temperatures in many areas are increasing (Peterson and Kitchell, 2001; Morrison and others, 2002; Bartholow, 2005; Kaushal and others, 2010), due to both air temperature increases and reduced summer flows that make streams more sensitive to warmer air temperatures (Isaak and others, 2010). In recent decades, wildfires have become more common across much of the western United States during periods of more frequent droughts (Westerling and others, 2006; Hoerling and Eischeid, 2007), and local stream temperature can increase in postfire environments (Gresswell, 1999; Dunham and others, 2007). Fire-related temperature increase within streams is commonly a transient phenomenon, lasting only until riparian vegetation has recovered (Gresswell, 1999); however, ongoing climate change could preclude recovery to higher stature, prefire vegetation types in some areas (McKenzie and others, 2004; van Mantgem and Stephenson, 2007), resulting in a loss of critical riparian shading. Additionally, when wildfires occur in steep mountain topographies, the vegetation that stabilize s soils on hillslopes is often killed and landslides become more prevalent (Gresswell, 1999). Landslides int o stream channels form debris flows composed of sediment slurries and dead trees that can scour channels to bedrock and further exacerbate stream heating, delay recovery of riparian areas, or extirpate fish populations (Gresswell, 1999; May and Gresswell, 2003; Dunham and others, 2007). Changes in stream environments will shift habitat distributions, sometimes unpredictably, in both time and space for many salmonid fishes. Water temperature fundamentally influences aquatic ecosystem health because distribution, reproduction, fitness, and survival of ectothermic organisms are inextricably linked to the thermal regime of the environment. Historically, research has focused on defining lethal thermal limits of salmonids (Eaton and others, 1995; Selong and others, 2001; Todd and others, 2008); however, water temperature is known to be important in biological processes at a variety of spatial scales and levels of biological organization (Rahel and Olden, 2008; McCullough and others, 2009). For instance, trout are affected directly by water temperature through feeding, metabolism, and growth rates, and indirectly by factors such as prey availability and species interactions (Wehrly and others, 2007; Rahel and Olden, 2008). Where cold water temperatures currently limit habitat suitability and distributions of some species (for example, at the highest and most northerly distributional extents; Nakano and others, 1996; Coleman and Fausch, 2007), a warming climate may gradually increase the quality and extent of suitable habitat. Over time, previously constrained populations are expected to expand into these new habitats and increase in number. Some evidence suggests this may already be happening in Alaska, where streams in recently deglaciated areas are being colonized by emigrants from nearby salmon and char populations (Milner and others, 2000). Unfortunately, many of the sensitive salmonid species that are often the focus of western managers are unlikely to benefit from future water temperature increases. Warmer stream temperatures will facilitate invasion by nonnative species that are broadly established in downstream areas into upstream areas where they will compete with native species (Rieman and others, 2006; Rahel and Olden, 2008; Fausch and others, 2009). In other cases, warmer stream temperatures will render thermally suitable habitats unsuitable in downstream areas and effect net losses of habitat because upstream distributions are often constrained by streams that are too small or steep (Hari and others, 2006; Isaak and others, 2010). Both scenarios are realistic for fish species like bull trout ( Salvelinus confluentus ) (Rieman and others, 2006; Rieman and others, 2007), the various subspecies of cutthroat trout ( Oncorhynchus clarkii ) (Williams and others, 2009), Gila trout ( Oncorhynchus gilae gilae ) (Kennedy and others, 2008), and Apache trout ( Oncorhynchus gilae apache ) (Rinne and Minckley, 1985; Carmichael and others, 1993). As native species are increasingly confined to smaller and more isolated habitats by a gradually warming climate, the effects of wildfires (whether related to lethal changes in water quality during a fire, channel debris flows, or chronic postfire warming ) could have greater proportional effects on remaining habitats (for example, Brown and others, 2001; Rieman and others, 2007). If these changes were accompanied by additional hydrologic alterations associated with changes to the magnitude, frequency, duration, timing, and rate of change of discharge patterns (Jager and others, 1999; Henderson and others, 2000), populations may begin to lose some of their historic resilience and become ever more susceptible to local extirpations. As dramatic and extensive as climatic and environmental trends are for salmonid habitats, global climate models (GCMs) project that many of these trends will continue and even accelerate until at least the middle of the 21st century (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2007). Current projections suggest mean annual air temperatures will increase by an additional 1–3°C, and early indications are that climate trajectory is at the higher end of this range (Pittock, 2006; Raupach and others, 2007). Although predicted changes vary considerably, even the most conservative estimates suggest a warming rate that will be twice that observed during the 20th century. Projections for the midcentury are most certainly due to the effects of greenhouse gases already emitted or predicted in the short term, uncertainties of the effects of longer-term greenhouse gas emissions, short-term climate cycles, and process errors associated with climate models (Cox and Stephenson, 2007). Projections of changes in total precipitation are less certain than those for air temperatures, but most GCMs project relatively small changes in the Northwest, with the exception of slightly drier summer periods (Mote and others, 2008; Karl and others, 2009). In the Southwest, however, significant decreases (such as 15–30 percent ) are projected during most periods of the year, and this area is one of the few for which Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (2007) precipitation projections have a high level of certainty (Hoerling and Eischeid, 2007; Karl and others, 2009). Clearly, managers of native salmonids in the wester n United States should consider adjusting management strategies to accommodate a warmer and possibly drier future (Williams and others, 2009). Tools are needed to forecast where important changes may occur and how conservation efforts should be prioritized. In this Open-File Report, we document our initial efforts in this regard for 10 species and subspecies of inland trout and Montana Arctic grayling ( Thymallus arcticus ) across the western United States.

Arizona, California, Colorado, Idaho, Montana, Nev↗

USGS2012

Field information links permafrost carbon to physical vulnerabilities of thawing

Deep soil profiles containing permafrost (Gelisols) were characterized for organic carbon (C) and total nitrogen (N) stocks to 3m depths. Using the Community Climate System Model (CCSM4) we calculate cumulative probability functions (PDFs) for active layer depths under current and future climates. The difference in PDFs over time was multiplied by C and N contents of soil horizons in Gelisol suborders to calculate newly thawed C and N, Thawing ranged from 147 PgC with 10 PgN by 2050 (representative concentration pathway RCP scenario 4.5) to 436 PgC with 29 PgN by 2100 (RCP 8.5). Organic horizons that thaw are vulnerable to combustion, and all horizon types are vulnerable to shifts in hydrology and decomposition. The rates and extent of such losses are unknown and can be further constrained by linking field and modelling approaches. These changes have the potential for strong additional loading to our atmosphere, water resources, and ecosystems.

Geophysical Research Letters↗

USGS2015

The ecology of methane in streams and rivers: Patterns, controls, and global significance

Streams and rivers can substantially modify organic carbon (OC) inputs from terrestrial landscapes, and much of this processing is the result of microbial respiration. While carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) is the major end-product of ecosystem respiration, methane (CH 4 ) is also present in many fluvial environments even though methanogenesis typically requires anoxic conditions that may be scarce in these systems. Given recent recognition of the pervasiveness of this greenhouse gas in streams and rivers, we synthesized existing research and data to identify patterns and drivers of CH 4 , knowledge gaps, and research opportunities. This included examining the history of lotic CH 4 research, creating a database of concentrations and fluxes (MethDB) to generate a global-scale estimate of fluvial CH 4 efflux, and developing a conceptual framework and using this framework to consider how human activities may modify fluvial CH 4 dynamics. Current understanding of CH 4 in streams and rivers has been strongly influenced by goals of understanding OC processing and quantifying the contribution of CH 4 to ecosystem C fluxes. Less effort has been directed towards investigating processes that dictate in situ CH 4 production and loss. CH 4 makes a meager contribution to watershed or landscape C budgets, but streams and rivers are often significant CH 4 sources to the atmosphere across these same spatial extents. Most fluvial systems are supersaturated with CH 4 and we estimate an annual global emission of 26.8 Tg CH 4 , equivalent to ~15-40% of wetland and lake effluxes, respectively. Less clear is the role of CH 4 oxidation, methanogenesis, and total anaerobic respiration to whole ecosystem production and respiration. Controls on CH 4 generation and persistence can be viewed in terms of proximate controls that influence methanogenesis (organic matter, temperature, alternative electron acceptors, nutrients) and distal geomorphic and hydrologic drivers. Multiple controls combined with its extreme redox status and low solubility result in high spatial and temporal variance of CH 4 in fluvial environments, which presents a substantial challenge for understanding its larger-scale dynamics. Further understanding of CH 4 production and consumption, anaerobic metabolism, and ecosystem energetics in streams and rivers can be achieved through more directed studies and comparison with knowledge from terrestrial, wetland, and aquatic disciplines.

Ecological Monographs↗

USGS2026

A method to implement natural flow regimes for regulated rivers

Rivers throughout the world have been dammed for flood control, irrigation, hydropower, and water storage for centuries. Dams service the economic and development needs of societies, but degrade the ecology of rivers. To conserve diminishing aquatic species and their habitats, methods are needed to help managers implement flow releases with timescales and patterns that are relevant to aquatic species and physical processes. We present a method to synchronize flow releases from dams with local hydrology, while ensuring constraints of flood control and water allocations are met. We demonstrate an optimization technique that scales flows of a proximal unregulated river and results in discharges that are synchronized with natural hydrologic patterns. Importantly, our method preserves operational and regulatory requirements such as water allocation volumes and flood control thresholds. This technique can be used at various timescales, and can incorporate many system-specific constraints. We selected the Trinity River, California as an example, and scale flows according to a proximal gage on the Salmon River in California. We evaluate our technique using an array of flow regime metrics from the literature, and our method produced hydrographs with greater flow variation throughout a larger portion of the water year than current management strategies. These hydrographs yielded flow metrics more similar to those from unimpaired flow patterns, including those measuring within and among year flow variability. The Real Time Management framework is a new tool that can be implemented to improve the health of rivers and the aquatic species that depend upon them.

California↗

USGS2013

Integrated carbon budget models for the Everglades terrestrial-coastal-oceanic gradient: Current status and needs for inter-site comparisons

Recent studies suggest that coastal ecosystems can bury significantly more C than tropical forests, indicating that continued coastal development and exposure to sea level rise and storms will have global biogeochemical consequences. The Florida Coastal Everglades Long Term Ecological Research (FCE LTER) site provides an excellent subtropical system for examining carbon (C) balance because of its exposure to historical changes in freshwater distribution and sea level rise and its history of significant long-term carbon-cycling studies. FCE LTER scientists used net ecosystem C balance and net ecosystem exchange data to estimate C budgets for riverine mangrove, freshwater marsh, and seagrass meadows, providing insights into the magnitude of C accumulation and lateral aquatic C transport. Rates of net C production in the riverine mangrove forest exceeded those reported for many tropical systems, including terrestrial forests, but there are considerable uncertainties around those estimates due to the high potential for gain and loss of C through aquatic fluxes. C production was approximately balanced between gain and loss in Everglades marshes; however, the contribution of periphyton increases uncertainty in these estimates. Moreover, while the approaches used for these initial estimates were informative, a resolved approach for addressing areas of uncertainty is critically needed for coastal wetland ecosystems. Once resolved, these C balance estimates, in conjunction with an understanding of drivers and key ecosystem feedbacks, can inform cross-system studies of ecosystem response to long-term changes in climate, hydrologic management, and other land use along coastlines

Florida↗

USGS2002

Preliminary geophysical characterization of two oil production sites, Osage County, Oklahoma - Osage Skiatook Petroleum Environmental Research Project

Ground electromagnetic and dc resistivity geophysical surveys were used to interpret the subsurface distribution of salinized soil, water, and bedrock at two sites (A and B) and to characterize the larger scale hydrologic setting. Measurements were made on grids of about 1000 square meters using a very shallow penetrating (less than 10 m) electromagnetic (EM) geophysical system (EM31). At site A, high subsurface conductivities (more than 100 millisiemens per meter) found below disposal ponds extended down the local hydrologic gradient to below the normal level of near by Lake Skiatook. At site B, areas of highest subsurface electrical conductivity were offset about 10 m from the center of salt scars. The area of high subsurface electrical conductivity extends in the subsurface below the normal level of Skiatook Lake. DC resistivity soundings were made in and around the two sites in order to characterize deeper (30-60 m) electrical properties of the subsurface lithology and ground water. These soundings indicate that the tight shale that dominates the local lithology is moderately electrically conductive (5 milliseimems per meter). DC soundings done in several areas at the Skiatook Lake shoreline indicate an electrically conductive (less than 10 millisiemens per meter) zone exists below the shore even away from the oil production sites. This conductive zone may indicate a mixing between fresh lake water and local ground water that has high dissolved solids. Borehole geophysical logs at site B and laboratory rock property measurements are currently being used to refine interpretation of ground geophysical measurements.

Oklahoma↗

USGS2001

Abstracts from "Coastal Marsh Dieback in the Northern Gulf of Mexico: Extent, Causes, Consequences, and Remedies

In the spring of 2000, scientists discovered a new and unprecedented loss of salt marsh vegetation in coastal Louisiana and other areas along the northern coast of the Gulf of Mexico. This dieback of salt marsh vegetation, sometimes called the brown marsh phenomenon', primarily involved the rapid browning and dieback of smooth cordgrass (Spanina alterniflora). Coastal Louisiana has already undergone huge, historical losses of coastal marsh due to both human-induced and natural factors, and the current overall rate of wetland loss (25-35 sq mi 65-91 SQ KM each year) stands to threaten Louisiana's coastal ecosystem, infrastructure, and economy. On January 11-12, 2001, individuals from Federal and State agencies, universities, and the private sector met at the conference 'Coastal Marsh Dieback in the Northern Gulf of Mexico: Extent, Causes, Consequences, and Remedies' to discuss and share information shout the marsh dieback. Presentations discussed trends in the progress of dieback during the summer of 2000 and in environmental conditions occurring at field study sites, possible causes including drought and Mississippi low flow' conditions, changes in soil conditions (salinity, the bioavailability of metals, pathogens, etc.), the potential for wetland loss that could occur if above and below normality occurs and is sustained over an extended period, advanced techniques for tracking the dieback via aerial photography and remote sensing, linkages of marsh hydrology to the dieback, and mechanisms of modeling dieback and recovery. In addition, presentations were made regarding development of a web site to facilitate information sharing and progress in preparation for requests for proposals based on an emergency appropriation by the U.S. Congress. All findings tended to support the idea that the dieback constituted a continuing environmental emergency and research and natural resource management efforts should be expended accordingly.

Information and Technology Report↗

USGS2011

Effects of flow dynamics on the aquatic-terrestrial transition zone (ATTZ) of lower Missouri river sandbars with implications for selected biota

Sandbars are an important aquatic terrestrial transition zone (ATTZ) in the active channel of rivers that provide a variety of habitat conditions for riverine biota. Channelization and flow regulation in many large rivers have diminished sandbar habitats and their rehabilitation is a priority. We developed sandbar-specific models of discharge-area relationships to determine how changes in flow regime affect the area of different habitat types within the submerged sandbar ATTZ (depth) and exposed sandbar ATTZ (elevation) for a representative sample of Lower Missouri River sandbars. We defined six different structural habitat types within the sandbar ATTZ based on depth or exposed elevation ranges that are important to different biota during at least part of their annual cycle for either survival or reproduction. Scenarios included the modelled natural flow regime, current managed flow regime and two environmental flow options, all modelled within the contemporary river active channel. Thirteen point and wing-dike sandbars were evaluated under four different flow scenarios to explore the effects of flow regime on seasonal habitat availability for foraging of migratory shorebirds and wading birds, nesting of softshell turtles and nursery of riverine fishes. Managed flows provided more foraging habitat for shorebirds and wading birds and more nursery habitat for riverine fishes within the channelized reach sandbar ATTZ than the natural flow regime or modelled environmental flows. Reduced summer flows occurring under natural and environmental flow alternatives increased exposed sandbar nesting habitat for softshell turtle hatchling emergence. Results reveal how management of channelized and flow regulated large rivers could benefit from a modelling framework that couples hydrologic and geomorphic characteristics to predict habitat conditions for a variety of biota.

River Research and Applications↗

USGS2011

Vulnerability of high-latitude soil organic carbon in North America to disturbance

This synthesis addresses the vulnerability of the North American high-latitude soil organic carbon (SOC) pool to climate change. Disturbances caused by climate warming in arctic, subarctic, and boreal environments can result in significant redistribution of C among major reservoirs with potential global impacts. We divide the current northern high-latitude SOC pools into (1) near-surface soils where SOC is affected by seasonal freeze-thaw processes and changes in moisture status, and (2) deeper permafrost and peatland strata down to several tens of meters depth where SOC is usually not affected by short-term changes. We address key factors (permafrost, vegetation, hydrology, paleoenvironmental history) and processes (C input, storage, decomposition, and output) responsible for the formation of the large high-latitude SOC pool in North America and highlight how climate-related disturbances could alter this pool's character and size. Press disturbances of relatively slow but persistent nature such as top-down thawing of permafrost, and changes in hydrology, microbiological communities, pedological processes, and vegetation types, as well as pulse disturbances of relatively rapid and local nature such as wildfires and thermokarst, could substantially impact SOC stocks. Ongoing climate warming in the North American high-latitude region could result in crossing environmental thresholds, thereby accelerating press disturbances and increasingly triggering pulse disturbances and eventually affecting the C source/sink net character of northern high-latitude soils. Finally, we assess postdisturbance feedbacks, models, and predictions for the northern high-latitude SOC pool, and discuss data and research gaps to be addressed by future research.

Journal of Geophysical Research G: Biogeosciences↗

USGS2019

It’s about time: A synthesis of changing phenology in the Gulf of Maine ecosystem

The timing of recurring biological and seasonal environmental events is changing on a global scale relative to temperature and other climate drivers. This study considers the Gulf of Maine ecosystem, a region of high social and ecological importance in the Northwest Atlantic Ocean and synthesizes current knowledge of 1) key seasonal processes, patterns, and events; 2) direct evidence for shifts in timing; 3) implications of phenological responses for linked ecological-human systems; and 4) potential phenology-focused adaptation strategies and actions. Twenty studies demonstrated shifts in timing of regional marine organisms and seasonal environmental events. The most common response was earlier timing, observed in spring onset, spring and winter hydrology, zooplankton abundance, and diadromous fish migrations. Later timing was documented for fall onset, reproduction and fledging in Atlantic puffins, spring and fall phytoplankton blooms, and occurrence of some larval fishes. Changes in event duration generally increased and were detected in zooplankton peak abundance, early life history periods of macro-invertebrates, and lobster fishery landings. Reduced duration was observed in winter-spring ice-affected stream flows. Two studies projected phenological changes, both finding diapause duration would decrease in zooplankton under future climate scenarios. Phenological responses were species-specific and varied depending on the environmental driver, spatial, and temporal scales evaluated. Overall, a wide range of baseline phenology and relevant modeling studies exist, yet surprisingly few document long-term shifts. Results reveal a need for increased emphasis on phenological shifts in the Gulf of Maine, identify opportunities for future research and consideration of phenological changes in adaptation efforts.

Maine↗

USGS2021

Summer runoff generation in foothill catchments of the Colorado Front Range

Climatic shifts, disturbances, and land-use change can alter hydrologic flowpaths, water quality, and water supply to downstream communities. Prior research investigating streamflow generation processes in mountainous areas has largely focused on high-elevation alpine and subalpine catchments; less is known about these processes in lower-elevation foothills and montane catchments. In these lower-elevation ecoregions, precipitation shifts seasonally from snow to rain, which can result in differing seasonal flowpaths. We analyzed stream water for electrical conductivity, SiO 2 , Ca, Mg, Na, Cl, SO 4 , K, and dissolved organic carbon on both a weekly and storm event basis from April to August 2018 in three small (<10 km 2 ) foothill catchments, and one larger (63.2 km 2 ) catchment extending from the foothills to the subalpine ecoregions, in the Colorado Front Range. Using two end-member hydrograph separations and concentration-runoff relationships, we inferred the dominant catchment-scale flowpaths of precipitation to the streams. We selected catchments with varying land use to investigate the relationship between these characteristics and hydrologic flowpaths. We observed that concentrations of lithogenic constituents generally increased and dissolved organic carbon decreased as seasonal runoff decreased in the three foothill catchments, reflecting a transition from shallow subsurface flowpaths to deeper subsurface flowpaths. Elevated SO 4 and Cl concentrations during low-flow periods in two of our catchments suggest that historical or current anthropogenic activities, such as mining, application of road salt, and/or near-stream septic systems, affect local stream and groundwater chemistry. In a foothill catchment with anthropogenic and geologic impervious surfaces, streamflow during storm responses was sourced from faster, surficial flowpaths compared to a less disturbed neighboring catchment, highlighting the influence of anthropogenic land-use on runoff generation. This study provides insight into the fundamental hydrology of foothill catchments and how they may function in the future with human development, precipitation shifts and disturbances.

Colorado↗

USGS2015

Sea-level rise modeling handbook: Resource guide for coastal land managers, engineers, and scientists

Global sea level is rising and may accelerate with continued fossil fuel consumption from industrial and population growth. In 2012, the U.S. Geological Survey conducted more than 30 training and feedback sessions with Federal, State, and nongovernmental organization (NGO) coastal managers and planners across the northern Gulf of Mexico coast to evaluate user needs, potential benefits, current scientific understanding, and utilization of resource aids and modeling tools focused on sea-level rise. In response to the findings from the sessions, this sea-level rise modeling handbook has been designed as a guide to the science and simulation models for understanding the dynamics and impacts of sea-level rise on coastal ecosystems. The review herein of decision-support tools and predictive models was compiled from the training sessions, from online research, and from publications. The purpose of this guide is to describe and categorize the suite of data, methods, and models and their design, structure, and application for hindcasting and forecasting the potential impacts of sea-level rise in coastal ecosystems. The data and models cover a broad spectrum of disciplines involving different designs and scales of spatial and temporal complexity for predicting environmental change and ecosystem response. These data and models have not heretofore been synthesized, nor have appraisals been made of their utility or limitations. Some models are demonstration tools for non-experts, whereas others require more expert capacity to apply for any given park, refuge, or regional application. A simplified tabular context has been developed to list and contrast a host of decision-support tools and models from the ecological, geological, and hydrological perspectives. Criteria were established to distinguish the source, scale, and quality of information input and geographic datasets; physical and biological constraints and relations; datum characteristics of water and land components; utility options for setting sea-level rise and climate change scenarios; and ease or difficulty of storing, displaying, or interpreting model output. Coastal land managers, engineers, and scientists can benefit from this synthesis of tools and models that have been developed for projecting causes and consequences of sea-level change on the landscape and seascape.

Professional Paper↗

USGS2020

Spatially referenced models of streamflow and nitrogen, phosphorus, and suspended-sediment transport in streams of the southwestern United States

Given the predicted imbalance between water supply and demand in the Southwest region of the United States, and the widespread problems with excessive nutrients and suspended sediment, there is a growing need to quantify current streamflow and water quality conditions throughout the region. Furthermore, current monitoring stations exist at a limited number of locations, and many streams lack streamflow and water quality information. SPAtially Referenced Regression On Watershed attributes (SPARROW) models were developed for hydrologic conditions representative of 2012 in order to understand how climate, land use, and other landscape characteristics control the yields of water, total nitrogen, total phosphorus, and suspended sediment across the Southwest region. The calibration data (mean annual streamflow and loads) for each of the four SPARROW models were based on continuous streamflow and discrete water-quality observations from throughout the region. Explanatory variables for the models consisted of regional datasets representing a range of potential sources of streamflow, nitrogen, phosphorous, and sediment, and processes that control the transport from land to water and attenuate loads within streams and waterbodies. Calibration and explanatory data were referenced to a surface water drainage network that allowed for routing and transport of water and loads through the region. The model results showed that wastewater discharge is the largest contributor to total nitrogen and total phosphorus yield from the Southwest region and forest land is the largest contributor to suspended-sediment yield, but that other sources such as atmospheric nitrogen deposition, agricultural runoff, and runoff from developed land are locally important across the region. The results from this study could complement research and inform water-quality management activities in the Southwest region. Examples might include identifying potentially impaired waterbodies and guiding remediation efforts where impairment has been documented, explaining the spatial patterns in harmful algal blooms, and providing estimates of sediment and nutrient loadings where such data are scarce or non-existent.

Southwestern United States↗