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At least 199 records · Page 11Linked to original sources
USGS2008

Use of inverse-modeling methods to improve ground-water-model calibration and evaluate model-prediction uncertainty, Camp Edwards, Cape Cod, Massachusetts

Historical weapons testing and disposal activities at Camp Edwards, which is located on the Massachusetts Military Reservation, western Cape Cod, have resulted in the release of contaminants into an underlying sand and gravel aquifer that is the sole source of potable water to surrounding communities. Ground-water models have been used at the site to simulate advective transport in the aquifer in support of field investigations. Reasonable models developed by different groups and calibrated by trial and error often yield different predictions of advective transport, and the predictions lack quantitative measures of uncertainty. A recently (2004) developed regional model of western Cape Cod, modified to include the sensitivity and parameter-estimation capabilities of MODFLOW-2000, was used in this report to evaluate the utility of inverse (statistical) methods to (1) improve model calibration and (2) assess model-prediction uncertainty. Simulated heads and flows were most sensitive to recharge and to the horizontal hydraulic conductivity of the Buzzards Bay and Sandwich Moraines and the Buzzards Bay and northern parts of the Mashpee outwash plains. Conversely, simulated heads and flows were much less sensitive to vertical hydraulic conductivity. Parameter estimation (inverse calibration) improved the match to observed heads and flows; the absolute mean residual for heads improved by 0.32 feet and the absolute mean residual for streamflows improved by about 0.2 cubic feet per second. Advective-transport predictions in Camp Edwards generally were most sensitive to the parameters with the highest precision (lowest coefficients of variation), indicating that the numerical model is adequate for evaluating prediction uncertainties in and around Camp Edwards. The incorporation of an advective-transport observation, representing the leading edge of a contaminant plume that had been difficult to match by using trial-and-error calibration, improved the match between an observed and simulated plume path; however, a modified representation of local geology was needed to simultaneously maintain a reasonable calibration to heads and flows and to the plume path. Advective-transport uncertainties were expressed as about 68-, 95-, and 99-percent confidence intervals on three dimensional simulated particle positions. The confidence intervals can be graphically represented as ellipses around individual particle positions in the X-Y (geographic) plane and in the X-Z or Y-Z (vertical) planes. The merging of individual ellipses allows uncertainties on forward particle tracks to be displayed in map or cross-sectional view as a cone of uncertainty around a simulated particle path; uncertainties on reverse particle-track endpoints - representing simulated recharge locations - can be geographically displayed as areas at the water table around the discrete particle endpoints. This information gives decisionmakers insight into the level of confidence they can have in particle-tracking results and can assist them in the efficient use of available field resources.

Massachusetts↗
USGS1996

Evaluating evapotranspiration for six sites in Benton, Spokane, and Yakima counties, Washington, May 1990 to September 1992

This report evaluates evapotranspiration for six sites in Benton, Spokane, and Yakima Counties, Washington. Three sites were located on the Arid Lands Ecology Reserve in Benton County: one at a full-canopy grassland in Snively Basin (Snively Basin site), one at a sparse-canopy grassland adjacent to two weighing lysimeters (grass lysimeter site), and one at a sagebrush grassland adjacent to two weighing lysimeters (sage lysimeter site). Two sites were located on the Turnbull National Wildlife Refuge in Spokane County: one at a full-canopy grassland in a meadow (Turnbull meadow site), the other a full-canopy grassland near a marsh (Turnbull marsh site). The last site was located in a sagebrush grassland in the Black Rock Valley in Yakima County (Black Rock Valley site). The periods of study at the six sites varied, ranging from 5 months at the Black Rock Valley site to more than 2 years at the Snively Basin, grass lysimeter, and sage lysimeter sites. The periods of study were May 1990 to September 1992 for the Snively Basin, grass lysimeter, and sage lysimeter sites; May 1991 to September 1992 for the Turnbull meadow site; May 1991 to April 1992 for the Turnbull marsh site; and March to September 1992 for the Black Rock Valley site. Evapotranspiration and energy-budget fluxes were estimated for the Snively Basin site, the Turnbull meadow site, and the Black Rock Valley site using the Bowen-ratio and Penman-Monteith methods. Daily evapotranspiration for the Snively Basin site was also estimated using a deep-percolation model for the Columbia Basin. The Bowen-ratio method and weighing lysimeters were used at the grass and sage lysimeter sites. The Penman-Monteith method was used at the Turnbull marsh site. Daily evapotranspiration at the sites ranged from under 0.2 millimeter during very dry or cold periods to over 4\x11millimeters after heavy rainfall or during periods of peak transpiration. At all sites, peak evapotranspiration occurred in spring, coinciding with plant growth, and the lowest evapotranspiration occurred in late summer and winter, coinciding with plant dormancy and extremely hot or cold temperatures. Water budgets for the Snively Basin, grass lysimeter, and sage lysimeter sites were based on estimates of precipitation, evapotranspiration, and surface runoff. Surface runoff was estimated at zero for all sites. For the Snively Basin site, 1991 and 1992 water budgets using Penman-Monteith evapotranspiration estimates agreed within 1 percent of the annual budgets computed using deep-percolation model estimates; daily estimates of evapotranspiration by the two methods varied considerably, however. For the Snively Basin site, 100 percent of the precipitation became ET in 1991, and in 1992, about 91 percent of the precipitation became evapotranspiration. Water budgets based on weighing lysimeter data at the grass and sage lysimeter sites agreed within 1 percent of each other for 1991 and within 5 percent of each other for 1992. For 1991, 10 percent of the precipitation became ET at both lysimeter sites. For 1992, 94 to 98 percent of the precipitation became ET at the grass lysimeter site while 98 to 9 percent of the precipitation became ET at the sage lysimeter site. Though there were uncertainties in the methods used, recharge estimates for the Snively Basin and grass and sage lysimeter sites were of the same order of magnitude. The Penman-Monteith method (which incorporated Bowen-ratio measurements), deep- percolation model, and weighing lysimeters indicated that no recharge to subsurface systems (soil profile, unsaturated zone, and ground water) occurred in 1991 and that, in 1992, recharge to subsurface systems was probably less than 10 percent of the annual precipitation at the Snively Basin and grass and sage lysimeter sites.

Washington↗
USGS1997

Ground-water resources in the vicinity of Cortland, Trumbull County, Ohio

The city of Cortland lies on the southeast ern shoreline of the 12.3-square-mile Mosquito Creek Lake in Trumbull County, Ohio. Cortland relies upon public wells completed in the Cussewago Sandstone for potable water. The Cussewago Sandstone, the principal aquifer in the study area, is a subcrop of the glaciofluvial sediments in the lake; the unit dips gently towards the southeast. Thickness of the Cussewago Sandstone ranges from less than 20 feet in south-central Bazetta Township to 152 feet in Cortland. The Bedford Shale overlies and confines the Cussewago Sandstone and separates it hydraulically from the Berea Sandstone. The Bedford Shale and Berea Sandstone are not a prolific source of ground water. In places, the Bedford Shale was completely eroded away prior to deposition of the Berea Sandstone. Where the Bedford Shale is absent, such as at the City of Cortland North Well Field, the Berea Sandstone and Cussewago Sandstone are likely in hydraulic connection. Throughout most of the study area, the Cussewago Sandstone is a confined aquifer. Ground-water flow is to the east and southeast. Pumping at both Cortland well fields has created cones of depression in the potentiometric surface. These cones of depression cause a local reversal in ground-water flow immediately east of both well fields. The absence of detectable concentrations of tritium in water samples from wells completed in the Cussewago Sandstone at Cortland indicates that ground water predates the atmospheric nuclear testing of the 1950's. Ground water requires about 60 to 110 years to flow from the Cussewago Sandstone subcrop of the glaciofluvial sediments in the lake to the Cortland public-supply wells. A comparison of aquifer storage and pumpage in the study area shows that the Cussewago Sandstone receives adequate recharge to support current withdrawals by Cortland public-supply wells. In the immediate vicinity of Cortland- between Route 305 and the Bazetta-Mecca Town ship line and between the Mosquito Creek Lake shoreline and the Bazetta-Fowler Township line-approximately 15,000 million gallons of water currently in the Cussewago Sandstone can be gravity drained from the aquifer without considering recharge to the aquifer. The 15,000 million gallons is equivalent to about 75 years of withdrawals by Cortland public-supply wells at current (1990-95) rates. A numerical flow model rather than an analytical or semianalytical model would be needed to accurately simulate flow and ground-water withdrawals in the Cussewago Sandstone in the vicinity of Cortland. Computer simulations of flow would likely involve conditions where a fully saturated, confined Cussewago Sandstone becomes a partially saturated aquifer.

Water-Resources Investigations Report↗
USGS1999

Ground-water resources in Kaloko-Honokohau National Historical Park, Island of Hawaii, and numerical simulation of the effects of ground-water withdrawals

Within the Kaloko-Honokohau National Historical Park, which was established in 1978, the ground-water flow system is composed of brackish water overlying saltwater. Ground-water levels measured in the Park range from about 1 to 2 feet above mean sea level, and fluctuate daily by about 0.5 to 1.5 feet in response to ocean tides. The brackish water is formed by mixing of seaward flowing fresh ground water with underlying saltwater from the ocean. The major source of fresh ground water is from subsurface flow originating from inland areas to the east of the Park. Ground-water recharge from the direct infiltration of precipitation within the Park area, which has land-surface altitudes less than 100 feet, is small because of low rainfall and high rates of evaporation. Brackish water flowing through the Park ultimately discharges to the fishponds in the Park or to the ocean. The ground water, fishponds, and anchialine ponds in the Park are hydrologically connected; thus, the water levels in the ponds mark the local position of the water table. Within the Park, ground water near the water table is brackish; measured chloride concentrations of water samples from three exploratory wells in the Park range from 2,610 to 5,910 milligrams per liter. Chromium and copper were detected in water samples from the three wells in the Park and one well upgradient of the Park at concentrations of 1 to 5 micrograms per liter. One semi-volatile organic compound, phenol, was detected in water samples from the three wells in the Park at concentrations between 4 and 10 micrograms per liter. A regional, two-dimensional (areal), freshwater-saltwater, sharp-interface ground-water flow model was used to simulate the effects of regional withdrawals on ground-water flow within the Park. For average 1978 withdrawal rates, the estimated rate of fresh ground-water discharge to the ocean within the Park is about 6.48 million gallons per day, or about 3 million gallons per day per mile of coastline. Although the coastal discharge within the Park is actually brackish water, the model assumes that freshwater and saltwater do not mix and therefore the model-calculated coastal discharge within the Park is in the form of freshwater discharge. Model results indicate that ground-water withdrawals in excess of average 1978 withdrawal rates will reduce the rate of freshwater coastal discharge within the Park. Withdrawals from wells directly upgradient of the Park had the greatest effect on the model-calculated freshwater coastal discharge within the Park, whereas withdrawals from wells south of Papa Bay had little effect on the freshwater discharge within the Park. For an increased ground-water withdrawal rate of 56.8 million gallons per day, relative to average 1978 withdrawal rates in the Kona area, model-calculated freshwater coastal discharge within the Park was reduced by about 47 percent.

Hawaii↗
USGS2005

Questa baseline and pre-mining ground-water quality investigation. 10. Geologic influences on ground and surface waters in the lower Red River watershed, New Mexico

This report is one in a series that presents results of an interdisciplinary U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) study of ground-water quality in the lower Red River watershed prior to open-pit and underground molybdenite mining at Molycorp’s Questa mine. The stretch of the Red River watershed that extends from just upstream of the town of Red River, N. Mex., to just above the town of Questa includes several mineralized areas in addition to the one mined by Molycorp. Natural erosion and weathering of pyrite-rich rocks in the mineralized areas has created a series of erosional scars along this stretch of the Red River that contribute acidic waters, as well as mineralized alluvial material and sediments, to the river. The overall goal of the USGS study is to infer the premining ground-water quality at the Molycorp mine site. An integrated geologic, hydrologic, and geochemical model for ground water in the mineralized—but unmined—Straight Creek drainage (a tributary of the Red River) is being used as an analog for the geologic, geochemical, and hydrologic conditions that influenced ground-water quality and quantity in the Red River drainage prior to mining. This report provides an overall geologic framework for the Red River watershed between Red River and Questa, in northern New Mexico, and summarizes key geologic, mineralogic, structural and other characteristics of various mineralized areas (and their associated erosional scars and debris fans) that likely influence ground- and surface-water quality and hydrology. The premining nature of the Sulphur Gulch and Goat Hill Gulch scars on the Molycorp mine site can be inferred through geologic comparisons with other unmined scars in the Red River drainage.

New Mexico↗
USGS1994

Publications of the U.S. Geological Survey, Water Resources Division, for Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands, 1899-1992

A list of publications of the water-resources investigations conducted by the U.S. Geological Survey, Water Resources Division, for Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands was compiled. The report includes publications regarding water-resources information in Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands released from 1899 to 1992. The publications are grouped into four categories: by author(s), by specific locations in Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands, by discipline of interest (ground water. surface water, water quality, floods and climate, geology, ground-water modeling, water-level contour maps, sediment, and water use), and by series or type of publication. Also a list of approved reports pending publication is included.

Open-File Report↗
USGS2008

Simulation of ground-water flow in the Shenandoah Valley, Virginia and West Virginia, using variable-direction anisotropy in hydraulic conductivity to represent bedrock structure

Ground-water flow was simulated using variable-direction anisotropy in hydraulic conductivity to represent the folded, fractured sedimentary rocks that underlie the Shenandoah Valley in Virginia and West Virginia. The anisotropy is a consequence of the orientations of fractures that provide preferential flow paths through the rock, such that the direction of maximum hydraulic conductivity is oriented within bedding planes, which generally strike N30 deg E; the direction of minimum hydraulic conductivity is perpendicular to the bedding. The finite-element model SUTRA was used to specify variable directions of the hydraulic-conductivity tensor in order to represent changes in the strike and dip of the bedding throughout the valley. The folded rocks in the valley are collectively referred to as the Massanutten synclinorium, which contains about a 5-km thick section of clastic and carbonate rocks. For the model, the bedrock was divided into four units: a 300-m thick top unit with 10 equally spaced layers through which most ground water is assumed to flow, and three lower units each containing 5 layers of increasing thickness that correspond to the three major rock units in the valley: clastic, carbonate and metamorphic rocks. A separate zone in the carbonate rocks that is overlain by colluvial gravel - called the western-toe carbonate unit - was also distinguished. Hydraulic-conductivity values were estimated through model calibration for each of the four rock units, using data from 354 wells and 23 streamflow-gaging stations. Conductivity tensors for metamorphic and western-toe carbonate rocks were assumed to be isotropic, while conductivity tensors for carbonate and clastic rocks were assumed to be anisotropic. The directions of the conductivity tensor for carbonate and clastic rocks were interpolated for each mesh element from a stack of 'form surfaces' that provided a three-dimensional representation of bedrock structure. Model simulations were run with (1) variable strike and dip, in which conductivity tensors were aligned with the strike and dip of the bedding, and (2) uniform strike in which conductivity tensors were assumed to be horizontally isotropic with the maximum conductivity direction parallel to the N30 deg E axis of the valley and the minimum conductivity direction perpendicular to the horizontal plane. Simulated flow penetrated deeper into the aquifer system with the uniform-strike tensor than with the variable-strike-and-dip tensor. Sensitivity analyses suggest that additional information on recharge rates would increase confidence in the estimated parameter values. Two applications of the model were conducted - the first, to determine depth of recent ground-water flow by simulating the distribution of ground-water ages, showed that most shallow ground water is less than 10 years old. Ground-water age distributions computed by variable-strike-and-dip and uniform-strike models were similar, but differed beneath Massanutten Mountain in the center of the valley. The variable-strike-and-dip model simulated flow from west to east parallel to the bedding of the carbonate rocks beneath Massanutten Mountain, while the uniform-strike model, in which flow was largely controlled by topography, simulated this same area as an east-west ground-water divide. The second application, which delineated capture zones for selected well fields in the valley, showed that capture zones delineated with both models were similar in plan view, but differed in vertical extent. Capture zones simulated by the variable-strike-and-dip model extended downdip with the bedding of carbonate rock and were relatively shallow, while those simulated by the uniform-strike model extended to the bottom of the flow system, which is unrealistic. These results suggest that simulations of ground-water flow through folded fractured rock can be constructed using SUTRA to represent variable orientations of the hydraulic-conductivity tensor and produce a

Virginia, West Virginia↗
USGS1983

A summary of ground-water pumpage in the Central Valley, California, 1961-77

In the Central Valley of California, a great agricultural economy has been developed in a semiarid environment. This economy is supported by imported surface water and 9 to 15 million acre-feet per year of ground water. Estimates of ground-water pumpage computed from power consumption have been compiled and summarized. Under ideal conditions, the accuracy of the methods used is about 3 percent. This level of accuracy is not sustained over the entire study area. When pumpage for the entire area is mapped, the estimates seem to be consistent areally and through time. A multiple linear-regression model was used to synthesize data for the years 1961 through 1977, when power data were not available. The model used a relation between ground-water pumpage and climatic indexes to develop a full suite of pumpage data to be used as input to a digital ground-water model, one of the products of the Central Valley Aquifer Project. Statistical analysis of well-perforation data from drillers ' logs and water-temperature data was used to determine the percentage of pumpage that was withdrawn from each of two horizontal layers. (USGS)

Water-Resources Investigations Report↗
USGS2005

Hydrology and simulation of ground-water flow in Cedar Valley, Iron County, Utah

Cedar Valley, located in the eastern part of Iron County in southwestern Utah, is experiencing rapid population growth. Cedar Valley traditionally has supported agriculture, but the growing population needs a larger share of the available water resources. Water withdrawn from the unconsolidated basin fill is the primary source for public supply and is a major source of water for irrigation. Water managers are concerned about increasing demands on the water supply and need hydrologic information to manage this limited water resource and minimize flow of water unsuitable for domestic use toward present and future public-supply sources. Surface water in the study area is derived primarily from snowmelt at higher altitudes east of the study area or from occasional large thunderstorms during the summer. Coal Creek, a perennial stream with an average annual discharge of 24,200 acre-feet per year, is the largest stream in Cedar Valley. Typically, all of the water in Coal Creek is diverted for irrigation during the summer months. All surface water is consumed within the basin by irrigated crops, evapotranspiration, or recharge to the ground-water system. Ground water in Cedar Valley generally moves from primary recharge areas along the eastern margin of the basin where Coal Creek enters, to areas of discharge or subsurface outflow. Recharge to the unconsolidated basin-fill aquifer is by seepage of unconsumed irrigation water, streams, direct precipitation on the unconsolidated basin fill, and subsurface inflow from consolidated rock and Parowan Valley and is estimated to be about 42,000 acre-feet per year. Stable-isotope data indicate that recharge is primarily from winter precipitation. The chloride mass-balance method indicates that recharge may be less than 42,000 acre-feet per year, but is considered a rough approximation because of limited chloride concentration data for precipitation and Coal Creek. Continued declining water levels indicate that recharge is not sufficient to meet demand. Water levels in many areas are at or close to historic lows. In 2000, withdrawal from wells was estimated to be 36,000 acre-feet per year. About 4,000 acre-feet per year are estimated to discharge to evapotranspiration or as subsurface outflow. Prior to large-scale ground-water development, ground-water discharge by evapotranspiration and discharge to springs was much larger. Ground water along the eastern margin of the valley between Cedar City and Enoch is unsuitable for domestic use because of high dissolved-solids and nitrate concentrations. The predominant ions of Ca and SO4 in this area indicate dissolution of gypsum in the Markagunt Plateau to the east. Data collected during this study were compared to historic data; there is no evidence to indicate deterioration in ground-water quality. The spatial distribution of ground water with high nitrate concentration does not appear to be migrating beyond its previously known extent. No single source can be identified as the cause for elevated nitrate concentrations in ground water. Low nitrogen-15 values north of Cedar City indicate a natural geologic source. Higher nitrogen-15 values toward the center of the basin and associated hydrologic data indicate probable recharge from waste-water effluent. Excess dissolved nitrogen gas and low nitrate concentrations in shallow ground water indicate that denitrification is occurring in some areas. A computer ground-water flow model was developed to simulate flow in the unconsolidated basin fill. The method of determining recharge from irrigation was changed during the calibration process to incorporate more areal and temporal variability. In general, the model accurately simulates water levels and water-level fluctuations and can be considered an adequate tool to help determine the valley-wide effects on water levels of additional ground-water withdrawals and changes in water use. The model was used to simulated water-level changes caused by projecting current withdrawal rates, increased withdrawal rates, and a 10-year drought. Water levels declined 20 to 275 feet in the southern and central parts of the valley and less than 20 feet north of Enoch

Utah↗
USGS2006

Selected Well Data Used in Determining Ground-Water Availability in the North and South Carolina Atlantic Coastal Plain Aquifer Systems

The data presented in this report are for selected wells in North and South Carolina that are located in the Atlantic Coastal Plain aquifer system. The data represent a partial inventory of wells in the study area and are to be used to update a regional flow model for North and South Carolina. This inventory includes a total of 813 wells in North Carolina and 461 wells in South Carolina. The well data include well-identification numbers, well locations by latitude and longitude, land-surface elevations, hole depths, well depths, open or screened interval(s), well diameters, depth to water, dates of water-level measurements, and aquifer assignment and transmissivity. Ground-water data presented in this report were obtained from field investigations and compiled from existing well records, both published and unpublished.

South Carolina↗
USGS1994

Evaluation of methods for delineating areas that contribute water to wells completed in valley-fill aquifers in Pennsylvania

Valley-fill aquifers in Pennsylvania are the source of drinking water for many wells in the glaciated parts of the State and along major river valleys. These aquifers area subject to contamination because of their shallow water-table depth and highly transmissive sediments. The possibility for contamination of water-supply wells in valley-fill aquifers can be minimized by excluding activities that could contaminate areas that contribute water to supply wells. An area that contributes water to a well is identified in this report as either an area of diversion, time-of-travel area, or contributing area. The area of diversion is a projection to land surface of the valley-fill aquifer volume through which water is diverted to a well and the time-of travel area is that fraction of the area of diversion through which water moves to the well in a specified time. The contributing area, the largest of three areas, includes the area of diversion but also incorporates bedrock uplands and other area that contribute water. Methods for delineating areas of diversion and contributing areas in valley-fill aquifers, described and compared in order of increasing complexity, include fixed radius, uniform flow, analytical, semianalytical, and numerical modeling. Delineated areas are considered approximations because the hydraulic properties and boundary conditions of the real ground-water system are simplified even in the most complex numerical methods. Successful application of any of these methods depends on the investigator's understanding of the hydrologic system in and near the well field, and the limitations of the method. The hydrologic system includes not only the valley-fill aquifer but also the regional surface-water and ground-water flow systems within which the valley is situated. As shown by numerical flow simulations of a well field in the valley-fill aquifer along Marsh Creek Valley near Asaph, Pa., water from upland bedrock sources can provide nearly all the water contributed to the well.

Open-File Report↗
USGS2014

Monitoring recharge in areas of seasonally frozen ground in the Columbia Plateau and Snake River Plain, Idaho, Oregon, and Washington

Seasonally frozen ground occurs over approximately one‑third of the contiguous United States, causing increased winter runoff. Frozen ground generally rejects potential groundwater recharge. Nearly all recharge from precipitation in semi-arid regions such as the Columbia Plateau and the Snake River Plain in Idaho, Oregon, and Washington, occurs between October and March, when precipitation is most abundant and seasonally frozen ground is commonplace. The temporal and spatial distribution of frozen ground is expected to change as the climate warms. It is difficult to predict the distribution of frozen ground, however, because of the complex ways ground freezes and the way that snow cover thermally insulates soil, by keeping it frozen longer than it would be if it was not snow covered or, more commonly, keeping the soil thawed during freezing weather. A combination of satellite remote sensing and ground truth measurements was used with some success to investigate seasonally frozen ground at local to regional scales. The frozen-ground/snow-cover algorithm from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, combined with the 21-year record of passive microwave observations from the Special Sensor Microwave Imager onboard a Defense Meteorological Satellite Program satellite, provided a unique time series of frozen ground. Periodically repeating this methodology and analyzing for trends can be a means to monitor possible regional changes to frozen ground that could occur with a warming climate. The Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System watershed model constructed for the upper Crab Creek Basin in the Columbia Plateau and Reynolds Creek basin on the eastern side of the Snake River Plain simulated recharge and frozen ground for several future climate scenarios. Frozen ground was simulated with the Continuous Frozen Ground Index, which is influenced by air temperature and snow cover. Model simulation results showed a decreased occurrence of frozen ground that coincided with increased temperatures in the future climate scenarios. Snow cover decreased in the future climate scenarios coincident with the temperature increases. Although annual precipitation was greater in future climate scenarios, thereby increasing the amount of water available for recharge over current (baseline) simulations, actual evapotranspiration also increased and reduced the amount of water available for recharge over baseline simulations. The upper Crab Creek model shows no significant trend in the rates of recharge in future scenarios. In these scenarios, annual precipitation is greater than the baseline averages, offsetting the effects of greater evapotranspiration in future scenarios. In the Reynolds Creek Basin simulations, precipitation was held constant in future scenarios and recharge was reduced by 1.0 percent for simulations representing average conditions in 2040 and reduced by 4.3 percent for simulations representing average conditions in 2080. The focus of the results of future scenarios for the Reynolds Creek Basin was the spatial components of selected hydrologic variables for this 92 square mile mountainous basin with 3,600 feet of relief. Simulation results from the watershed model using the Continuous Frozen Ground Index provided a relative measure of change in frozen ground, but could not identify the within-soil processes that allow or reject available water to recharge aquifers. The model provided a means to estimate what might occur in the future under prescribed climate scenarios, but more detailed energy-balance models of frozen-ground hydrology are needed to accurately simulate recharge under seasonally frozen ground and provide a better understanding of how changes in climate may alter infiltration.

Idaho;Oregon;Washington↗
USGS2006

Ground-Water Contributions to Reservoir Storage and the Effect on Estimates of Firm Yield for Reservoirs in Massachusetts

Potential ground-water contributions to reservoir storage were determined for nine reservoirs in Massachusetts that had shorelines in contact with sand and gravel aquifers. The effect of ground water on firm yield was not only substantial, but furthermore, the firm yield of a reservoir in contact with a sand and gravel aquifer was always greater when the ground-water contribution was included in the water balance. Increases in firm yield ranged from 2 to 113 percent, with a median increase in firm yield of 10 percent. Additionally, the increase in firm yield in two reservoirs was greater than 85 percent. This study identified a set of equations that are based on an analytical solution to the ground-water-flow equation for the case of one-dimensional flow in a finite-width aquifer bounded by a linear surface-water feature such as a stream. These equations, which require only five input variables, were incorporated into an existing firm-yield-estimator (FYE) model, and the potential effect of ground water on firm yield was evaluated. To apply the FYE model to a reservoir in Massachusetts, the model requires that the drainage area to the reservoir be clearly defined and that some surface water flows into the reservoir. For surface-water-body shapes having a more realistic representation of a reservoir shoreline than a stream, a comparison of ground-water-flow rates simulated by the ground-water equations with flow rates simulated by a two-dimensional, finite-difference ground-water-flow model indicate that the agreement between the simulated flow rates is within ?10 percent when the ratio of the distance from the reservoir shoreline to the aquifer boundary to the length of shoreline in contact with the aquifer is between values of 0.5 and 3.5. Idealized reservoir-aquifer systems were assumed to verify that the ground-water-flow equations were implemented correctly into the existing FYE model; however, the modified FYE model has not been validated through a comparison of simulated and observed data. A comparison of simulated and observed reservoir water levels would further define limitations to the applicability of the ground-water-flow equations to reservoirs in Massachusetts whose shorelines are in contact with a sand and gravel aquifer.

Scientific Investigations Report↗
USGS2007

Fate and Transport Modeling of Selected Chlorinated Organic Compounds at Operable Unit 1, U.S. Naval Air Station, Jacksonville, Florida

The U.S. Naval Air Station occupies 3,800 acres adjacent to the St. Johns River in Jacksonville, Florida. The Station was placed on the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's National Priorities List in December 1989 and is participating in the U.S. Department of Defense Installation Restoration Program, which serves to identify and remediate environmental contamination. One contaminated site, the old landfill, was designated as Operable Unit 1 (OU1) in 1989. The major source of ground-water contamination was from the disposal of waste oil and solvents into open pits, which began in the 1940s. Several remedial measures were implemented at this site to prevent the spread of contamination. Recovery trenches were installed in 1995 to collect free product. In 1998, some of the contamination was consolidated to the center of the old landfill and covered by an impermeable cap. Currently, Operable Unit 1 is being reevaluated as part of a 5-year review process to determine if the remedial actions were effective. Solute transport modeling indicated that the concentration of contaminants would have reached its maximum extent by the 1970s, after which the concentration levels would have generally declined because the pits would have ceased releasing high levels of contaminants. In the southern part of the site, monitoring well MW-19, which had some of the highest levels of contamination, showed decreases for measured and simulated concentrations of trichloroethene (TCE) and dichloroethene (DCE) from 1992 to present. Two upgradient disposal pits were simulated to have ceased releasing high levels of contamination in 1979, which consequently caused a drop in simulated concentrations. Monitoring well MW-100 had the highest levels of contamination of any well directly adjacent to a creek. Solute transport modeling substantially overestimated the concentrations of TCE, DCE, and vinyl chloride (VC) in this well. The reason for this overestimation is not clear, however, it indicates that the model will be conservative when used to predict concentration levels and the time required for the contamination to move through the system. Monitoring well MW-97 had the highest levels of contamination in the central part of the site. The levels decreased for both the measured and simulated values of TCE, DCE, and VC from 1999 to present. Simulating the source area as ceasing to release high levels of contamination in 1979 caused the drop in concentration, which began in the 1990s at this well. Monitoring well MW-89 had the highest levels of contamination in the northern part of the site. In order to match the low levels of contamination in wells MW-12 and MW-93, the pit was simulated as ceasing to release contamination in 1970; however, the installation of a trench in 1995 could have caused the source area to release additional contamination from 1995 to 1998. The effect of the additional dissolution was a spike in contamination at MW-89, beginning in about 1996 and continuing until the present time. Results from the last several sampling events indicate that the TCE and DCE levels could be decreasing, but VC shows no apparent trend. Several more years of sampling are needed to determine if these trends are continuing. Based on the solute transport modeling predictions, TCE, DCE, and VC will have migrated to the vicinity of creeks that drain ground water from the aquifer by 2010, and only relatively low levels will remain in the aquifer by 2015. Because the creeks represent the point where the contaminated ground water comes into contact with the environment, future contamination levels are a concern. The concentration of chlorinated solvents in the creek water has always been relatively low. Because the model shows that concentrations of TCE, DCE, and VC are declining in the aquifer, contamination levels in the creeks also are anticipated to decline.

Scientific Investigations Report↗
USGS1999

Geochemistry and hydrogeologic framework of the saline-freshwater interface and the calculation of net recharge in the Dorado area, north-central Puerto Rico

The upper aquifer near Dorado, Puerto Rico, is a major source of water for both public and private supply. The aquifer is composed of portions of the Aguada Limestone, Aymam6n Limestone, and adjacent permeable portions of unconsolidated deposits. As water moves through the aquifer it changes from a calcium-bicarbonate type water in the upgradient portions of the aquifer to a sodium-chloride type water in the downgradient portions of the aquifer near the coast. Pumping from the aquifer for industrial use and public supply has lowered the water table to near sea level in some areas, causing saline intrusion to be a concern. The saline-freshwater interface was located by drilling and borehole geophysics. Drilling and borehole geophysics helped locate the lower limit of the aquifer. The saline-freshwater interface is narrow close to the coast and thickens with distance from the coast. Ground-water hydrographs in the study area were simulated with a deterministic model that allows net recharge to be calculated from precipitation data and ground water level data. Calculated net recharge rates ranged from 160 millimeters per year in 1995 at the Santa Rosa well site to 260 millimeters per year in 1996 at the Maguayo well site.

Water-Resources Investigations Report↗
USGS2006

Effects of Proposed Additional Ground-Water Withdrawals from the Mississippi River Valley Alluvial Aquifer on Water Levels in Lonoke County, Arkansas

The Grand Prairie Water Users Association, located in Lonoke County, Arkansas, plans to increase ground-water withdrawals from the Mississippi River Valley alluvial aquifer from their current (2005) rate of about 400 gallons per minute to 1,400 gallons per minute (2,016,000 gallons per day). The effect of pumping from a proposed well was simulated using a digital model of ground-water flow. The proposed additional withdrawals were added to an existing pumping cell specified in the model, with increased pumping beginning in 2005, and specified to pump at a total combined rate of 2,016,000 gallons per day for a period of 46 years. In addition, pumping from wells owned by Cabot Water Works, located about 2 miles from the proposed pumping, was added to the model beginning in 2001 and continuing through to the end of 2049. Simulated pumping causes a cone of depression to occur in the alluvial aquifer with a maximum decline in water level of about 8.5 feet in 46 years in the model cell of the proposed well compared to 1998 withdrawals. However, three new dry model cells occur south of the withdrawal well after 46 years. This total water-level decline takes into account the cumulative effect of all wells pumping in the vicinity, although the specified pumping rate from all other model cells in 2005 is less than for actual conditions in 2005. After 46 years with the additional pumping, the water-level altitude in the pumped model cell was about 177.4 feet, which is 41.7 feet higher than 135.7 feet, the altitude corresponding to half of the original saturated thickness of the alluvial aquifer (a metric used to determine if the aquifer should be designated as a Critical Ground-Water Area (Arkansas Natural Resources Commission, 2006)).

Scientific Investigations Report↗
USGS1999

Ground-water flow paths and traveltime to three small embayments within the Peconic Estuary, eastern Suffolk County, New York

The Peconic Estuary, at the eastern end of Long Island, has been plagued by a recurrent algal bloom that has caused the severe decline of local marine resources. Although the onset, duration, and cessation of the bloom remain unpredictable, ground-water discharge has been shown to affect surface-water quality in the western part of the estuary. Results from a study on the North Fork of Long Island indicate that local hydrogeologic factors cause differences in ground-water age and characteristics of discharge to the estuary. The need for information on the local patterns and rates of ground-water discharge to the Peconic Estuary prompted analysis of ground-water flow paths and traveltime to three small embayments within the estuary. Meetinghouse Creek, near the west end of the North Fork; Sag Harbor Cove, in the central part of the South Fork; and West Neck Bay, on Shelter Island. Ground-water-flow models were developed, and particle-tracking procedures were applied to the results of each model, to define the flow paths and traveltime of ground water to the three embayments. The steady-state flow models represent the two-dimensional ground-water-flow system along a vertical section through the uplands of each embayment and simulate long-term hydrologic conditions. The particle-tracking procedure used model-generated ground-water levels and flow rates to calculate the water-particle pathlines and times-of-travel through each flow system from the point of entry (recharge) to the point of exit at streams, the shore, or subsea-discharge areas. Results for the Meetinghouse Creek study area indicate that about 50 percent of the total recharge that enters the system flows southward to Meetinghouse Creek; half of this amount discharges as base flow to the fresh-water reach of the creek, and half as shoreline underflow to the estuarine reach. About 85 percent of the total discharge to Meetinghouse Creek has flowed entirely within the upper glacial aquifer, and about 15 percent has flowed through the Magothy aquifer. The average age of all ground water discharged to Meetinghouse Creek is about 60 years; the average age of base flow to the freshwater reach of the creek is about 7 years, and the average age of shoreline underflow to the estuarine reach is about 120 years. The results for the Sag Harbor Cove study area indicate that about 30 percent of the total recharge that enters the system flows northward to Sag Harbor Cove; about half of this amount discharges as shoreline underflow, and half as subsea underflow. About 40 percent of the total discharge to Sag Harbor Cove has flowed entirely within the upper glacial aquifer, and about 60 percent has flowed through the Pleistocene marine clay unit, Pleistocene(?) sand unit, or Magothy aquifer. The average age of all ground water discharged to Sag Harbor Cove is about 110 years; the average age of shoreline underflow is about 25 years, and the average age of subsea underflow is about 190 years. Results for the West Neck Bay study area indicate that about 65 percent of the total recharge that enters the system flows westward to West Neck Bay; virtually all of this amount discharges as shoreline underflow, but a negligible percentage discharges as subsea underflow. Virtually all discharge to West Neck Bay has flowed entirely within the upper glacial aquifer, although a minor amount has flowed through the Pleistocene marine clay unit. The average age of shoreline underflow to West Neck Bay is about 15 years, and the average age of subsea underflow is about 1,800 years. Ground water that discharges to streams and the shores represented in the models is mostly relatively young water that has flowed entirely within the shallow zones of the flow systems, whereas ground water that discharges to the subsea-discharge areas is mostly old water that has flowed through the deep zones. Data obtained from these models allows evaluation of each embayment.s vulnerability to contaminants introduced at the water table and can guide the development of source-area-protection strategies for the corresponding watersheds.

New York↗
USGS1996

Hydrogeologic setting and preliminary estimates of hydrologic components for Bull Run Lake and the Bull Run Lake drainage basin, Multnomah and Clackamas counties, Oregon

The hydrogeologic setting was described and preliminary estimates of hydrologic components prepared for the Bull Run Lake and for the Bull Run Lake drainage basin, in the Cascade Range of northwestern Oregon. The 0.73-square-mile lake and the 3.44-square-mile drainage basin lie within the Bull Run Watershed, the principal water supply for the Portland, Oregon, metropolitan area. During periods of high demand or low inflows to the watershed, the City of Portland, Bureau of Water Works, releases water from Bull Run Lake to augment the supply. Bull Run Lake is impounded by a natural dam formed by a landslide. Outflow of ground water from the lake through the landslide emerges as springflow at the toe of the landslide and forms the headwaters of the Bull Run River. The approximately 4,300-Mgal (million gallons) discharge of the Bull Run River measured below the springs during the 1993 water year is composed of (1) outflow of ground water from Bull Run Lake through the landslide (approximately 60 percent), (2) ground water originating from the contributing drainage area between the lake and the springs (approximately 34 percent), (3) streamflow from Bull Run Lake (approximately 5 percent), and (4) surface runoff (streamflow and overland flow) from the contributing drainage area between the lake and the springs (approximately 1 percent). Estimated ranges for inflows to the Bull Run Lake drainage basin during the 1993 water year were about 3,400 to 9,200 Mgal from precipitation from rain and snow, and about 0 to 3,300 Mgal from fog drip. Estimated ranges for outflows from the lake basin, listed from largest to smallest, were about 1,800 to 3,400 Mgal for ground-water outflow through the landslide; about 600 to 1,800 Mgal for evapotranspiration from the land surface; about 170 to 410 Mgal for lake evaporation; and about 0 to 400 Mgal for streamflow from the lake. Ground- water outflow through the consolidated rocks could not be evaluated owing to the lack of data. The lake storage increased by a range of from about 1,700 to 1,900 Mgal. Changes in ground-water storage and soil-moisture storage could not be evaluated as a result of insufficient data. Estimated inflows to Bull Run Lake from precipitation on the lake surface during the 1993 water year ranged from about 600 to 1,600 Mgal. Inflows from ground water and surface runoff could not be evaluated owing to the lack of data. Estimated ranges for outflows from the lake were about 1,800 to 3,400 Mgal from ground-wateroutflow through the landslide, about 170 to 410 Mgal from lake evaporation, and about 0 to 400 Mgal from streamflow. Outflow of ground water through the consolidated rocks could not be evaluated owing to the lack of data. Lake storage increased by a range of from about 1,700 to 1,900 Mgal. Suggestions for further study include (1) evaluation of the surface-runoff component of inflow to the lake; (2) use of a cross-sectional ground-water flow model to estimate ground-water inflow, outflow, and storage; (3) additional data collection to reduce the uncertainties of the hydrologic components that have large relative uncertainties; and (4) determination of long-term trends for a wide range of climatic and hydrologic conditions.

Oregon↗