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Hydrogeology and simulation of ground-water flow in the aquifers underlying Belvidere, Illinois

The U.S. Geological Survey investigated the ground-water-flow system and distribution of contaminants in the vicinity of Belvidere, Illinois, during 1992?2000. The study included the compilation, collection, and analyses of hydrogeologic and water-quality data and simulation of the ground-water-flow system. Hydrogeologic data include lithologic, stratigraphic, geophysical, hydraulic-property, water-level, ground-water withdrawal, and streamflow data. Water-quality data include analyses of water samples primarily for volatile organic compounds (VOC?s) and selectively for tritium and inorganic constituents. Data were collected from about 250 wells and 21 surfacewater sites. These data were used (1) to describe the hydrogeologic framework of the ground-waterflow system, preferential pathways and directions of ground-water movement and contaminant distribution, ground-water/surface-water relations, and the water budget and (2) to develop and calibrate the ground-water-flow model. The glacial drift (sand and gravel with some clay) and Galena-Platteville (fractured dolomite) aquifers and the sandstone aquifers of the Cambrian-Ordovician aquifer system compose the ground-water-flow system underlying Belvidere and vicinity. The Glenwood confining unit separates the Galena-Platteville aquifer from the underlying sandstone aquifers. The Galena- Platteville aquifer and confining unit may be absent in parts of the Troy Bedrock Valley, about 1.5 miles west of Belvidere. Throughout the study area, the Kishwaukee River and its tributaries seem to be gaining flow from shallow ground-water discharge. Potentiometric levels in the glacial drift and Galena-Platteville aquifers range from about 900 feet above sea level in the upland areas to 740 feet along the Kishwaukee River. Estimated horizontal hydraulic conductivity of the glacial drift aquifer ranges from about 0.13 to 280 feet per day. The Galena-Platteville aquifer is a dual-porosity unit with the greatest percentage of flow through fractures and bedding-plane partings. Estimated horizontal hydraulic conductivity ranges from about 0.005 to 2,500 feet per day. Estimated horizontal hydraulic conductivity of the St. Peter aquifer (the uppermost sandstone aquifer of the Cambrian-Ordovician aquifer system ranges from about 4.7 to 17.5 feet per day. Volatile organic compounds have been detected in all aquifers underlying Belvidere. Trichloroethene and tetrachloroethene are the principal VOC?s detected at concentrations above regulatory levels, with the largest number of detections and highest concentrations in the glacial drift aquifer. VOC?s generally are not detected in the glacial drift aquifer farther than 1,000 feet from known or potential source areas (industrial or disposal sites), because most source areas are near the Kishwaukee River, where shallow ground water discharges. Across most of the study area, the Glenwood confining unit seems to restrict downward movement of VOC?s into the underlying St. Peter aquifer; in the immediate vicinity of Belvidere, downward movement also seems restricted by lateral movement toward the municipal wells through permeable intervals in the 2 Hydrogeology and Simulation of Ground-Water Flow in the Aquifers Underlying Belvidere, Illinois Galena-Platteville aquifer. Fractures and (or) unused wells that may penetrate the confining unit seem to provide local pathways for limited movement of VOC?s to the sandstone aquifers. At least two municipal wells seem to intercept the bedding-plane partings at about 525 and 485 feet above sea level. Water levels in the lower one-third of the Galena-Platteville aquifer rapidly respond to withdrawals at these wells. The ground-water-flow system underlying Belvidere was simulated to test the conceptual model of the system. The three-dimensional, steady-state model represents the glacial drift, Galena-Platteville, and sandstone aquifers sep

Water-Resources Investigations Report↗

Ground-water resources of the Mattapoisett River Valley, Plymouth County, Massachusetts

Ground-water withdrawals by municipal wells in the Mettapoisett River valley, Massachusetts, are expected to triple in the next two decades. State and local concern about the long-term impacts of these withdrawals on ground-water levels and streamflow made it necessary to assess the ground-water resources of the valley and to develop a digital ground-water-flow model for management purposes. Ten pumping scenarios, which represent the present and proposed withdrawals from the aquifer, were simulated using reduced recharge conditions. Under conditions simulating 1965 average annual recharge, predicted water levels in the aquifer are as much as 9 feet lower than average annual levels. At the highest withdrawal rates, the predicted drawdown in four wells exceeds the estimated available drawdown. Under conditions representative of the 7-day 10-year low flow of the river, predicted water levels decline as much as 19 feet. Simulated withdrawals in six scenarios use all of the available ground-water discharge. If this drought condition should occur and streamflow is not supplemented by surface water, the model results indicate that the river in the southern half of the valley will stop flowing under most pumping plans. (USGS)

Water-Resources Investigations Report↗

A plan for hydrologic investigations of in situ, oil-shale retorting near Rock Springs, Wyoming

The recovery of shale oil by the in-situ retort process may cause hydrologic impacts, the most significant being ground-water contamination and possible transport of contaminants into surrounding areas. Although these impacts are site-specific, many of the techniques used to investigate each retort operation commonly will be the same. The U.S. Geological Survey has begun a study of hydrologic impacts in the area of an in-situ retort near Rock Springs, Wyoming, as a means of refining and demonstrating these techniques. Geological investigations include determining the areal extent and thickness of aquifers. Emphasis will be placed on determining lithologic variations from geophysical logging. Hydrologic investigations include mapping of potentiometric surfaces, determining rates of ground-water discharge, and estimating aquifer properties by analytical techniques. Water-quality investigations include monitoring solute migration from the retort site and evaluating sampling techniques by standard statistical procedures. A ground-water-flow and solute-transport model will be developed to predict future movement of the water plume away from the retort. (USGS)

Open-File Report↗

Characterization and simulation of flow in the lower Arkansas River alluvial aquifer, south-central Kansas

Large parts of the lower Arkansas, Ninnescah, and Walnut River Basins in south-central Kansasan area that includes Wichita, the largest city in Kansasare experiencing rapid population growth and, consequently, increasing demands on surface- and ground-water resources in addition to agricultural irrigation in the area. The quantity and quality of water available in the lower Arkansas, Ninnescah, and Walnut River Basins in Butler, Cowley, Sedgwick, and Sumner Counties are crucial as population and water use continue to increase in the region. A steady-state model was constructed to simulate flow in the Arkansas River alluvial aquifer between Wichita and Arkansas City. Calibration was achieved using March 2001 measured water levels and streamflow gain using long-term (19402001) streamflow records. Average recharge about 5 inches per year; average aquifer hydraulic conductivity was about 500 feet per day; well pumpage (average of reported 19982001 use) was 56 cubic feet per second; and net flow from the alluvial aquifer to streams in the modeled area was computed by hydrograph separation to be 157 cubic feet per second. Nine hypothetical simulations were conducted with ground-water pumpage varying from zero to double authorized pumpage (206 cubic feet per second). Net remaining aquifer thickness declined for the largest simulated pumpage increases in comparison to 19982001 average pumping, as did flow from the aquifer to the Arkansas River. Simulated aquifer thickness decreases were more pronounced in areas where pumpage is currently (2004) greatest.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

Effects of recharge, Upper Floridan aquifer heads, and time scale on simulated ground-water exchange with Lake Starr, a seepage lake in central Florida

Lake Starr and other lakes in the mantled karst terrain of Florida's Central Lake District are surrounded by a conductive surficial aquifer system that receives highly variable recharge from rainfall. In addition, downward leakage from these lakes varies as heads in the underlying Upper Floridan aquifer change seasonally and with pumpage. A saturated three-dimensional finite-difference ground-water flow model was used to simulate the effects of recharge, Upper Floridan aquifer heads, and model time scale on ground-water exchange with Lake Starr. The lake was simulated as an active part of the model using high hydraulic conductivity cells. Simulated ground-water flow was compared to net ground-water flow estimated from a rigorously derived water budget for the 2-year period August 1996-July 1998. Calibrating saturated ground-water flow models with monthly stress periods to a monthly lake water budget will result in underpredicting gross inflow to, and leakage from, ridge lakes in Florida. Underprediction of ground-water inflow occurs because recharge stresses and ground-water flow responses during rainy periods are averaged over too long a time period using monthly stress periods. When inflow is underestimated during calibration, leakage also is underestimated because inflow and leakage are correlated if lake stage is maintained over the long term. Underpredicted leakage reduces the implied effect of ground-water withdrawals from the Upper Floridan aquifer on the lake. Calibrating the weekly simulation required accounting for transient responses in the water table near the lake that generated the greater range of net ground-water flow values seen in the weekly water budget. Calibrating to the weekly lake water budget also required increasing the value of annual recharge in the nearshore region well above the initial estimate of 35 percent of the rainfall, and increasing the hydraulic conductivity of the deposits around and beneath the lake. To simulate the total ground-water inflow to lakes, saturated-flow models of lake basins need to account for the potential effects of rapid and efficient recharge in the surficial aquifer system closest to the lake. In this part of the basin, the ability to accurately estimate recharge is crucial because the water table is shallowest and the response time between rainfall and recharge is shortest. Use of the one-dimensional LEACHM model to simulate the effects of the unsaturated zone on the timing and magnitude of recharge in the nearshore improved the simulation of peak values of ground-water inflow to Lake Starr. Results of weekly simulations suggest that weekly recharge can approach the majority of weekly rainfall on the nearshore part of the lake basin. However, even though a weekly simulation with higher recharge in the nearshore was able to reproduce the extremes of ground-water exchange with the lake more accurately, it was not consistently better at predicting net ground-water flow within the water budget error than a simulation with lower recharge. The more subtle effects of rainfall and recharge on ground-water inflow to the lake were more difficult to simulate. The use of variably saturated flow modeling, with time scales that are shorter than weekly and finer spatial discretization, is probably necessary to understand these processes. The basin-wide model of Lake Starr had difficulty simulating the full spectrum of ground-water inflows observed in the water budget because of insufficient information about recharge to ground water, and because of practical limits on spatial and temporal discretization in a model at this scale. In contrast, the saturated flow model appeared to successfully simulate the effects of heads in the Upper Floridan aquifer on water levels and ground-water exchange with the lake at both weekly and monthly stress periods. Most of the variability in lake leakage can be explained by the average vertical head difference between the lake and a representative Upper Floridan aquifer well. Simulated lake leakage was correlated (r2 = 0.86) to the average head difference between the lake and a representative Upper Floridan aquifer well, suggesting that leakage was largely a linear function of this head difference. The best estimate of weekly or monthly ground-water inflow can be derived using the water budget and simulated lake leakage. Ground-water inflow is calculated as a new residual to the water budget for Lake Starr after substituting the simulated values of lake leakage into the equation. Using this combined approach to calculate the ground-water inflow to Lake Starr gave gross inflow estimates of 15,689,000 and 20,778,000 cubic feet for the first and second years of the study, respectively (33 and 42 inches per year, respectively). Ground-water inflow was about 42 percent of the total inflow to the lake for the 2-year time period. Lake leakage was estimated to be 14,389,000 and 12,115,000 cubic feet per year for the first and second years, respectively (29 and 24 inches per year, respectively), and was 31 percent of the total outflow during the 2 years. The linear regression between simulated lake leakage and average head difference between the lake and an index well provides a method for estimating leakage from Lake Starr beyond the modeled time period. Leakage estimates from the relation with head difference could be used along with a lake water budget to estimate ground-water inflow over any period that water budget and average head measurements in the index well are available.

Florida↗

Geohydrology of alluvium and terrace deposits of the Cimarron River from freedom to Guthrie, Oklahoma

Ground water in 1,305 square miles of Quaternary alluvium and terrace deposits along the Cimarron River from Freedom to Guthrie, Oklahoma, is used for irrigation, municipal, stock, and domestic supplies. As much as 120 feet of clay, silt, sand, and gravel form an unconfined aquifer with an average saturated thickness of 28 feet. The 1985-86 water in storage, assuming a specific yield of 0.20, was 4.47 million acre-feet. The aquifer is bounded laterally and underlain by relatively impermeable Permian geologic units. Regional ground-water flow is generally southeast to southwest toward the Cimarron River, except where the flow direction is affected by perennial tributaries. Estimated average recharge to the aquifer is 207 cubic feet per second. Estimated average discharge from the aquifer by seepage and evapotranspiration is 173 cubic feet per second. Estimated 1985 discharge by withdrawals from wells was 24.43 cubic feet per second. Most water in the terrace deposits varied from a calcium bicarbonate to mixed bicarbonate type, with median dissolved-solids concentration of 538 milligrams per liter. Cimarron River water is a sodium chloride type with up to 16,600 milligrams per liter dissolved solids. A finite-difference ground-water flow model was developed and calibrated to test the conceptual model of the aquifer under steady-state conditions. The model was calibrated to match 1985-86 aquifer heads and discharge to the Cimarron River between Waynoka and Dover.

Water-Resources Investigations Report↗

Investigation of the geology and hydrology of the upper and middle Verde River watershed of central Arizona: A project of the Arizona Rural Watershed Initiative

The upper and middle Verde River watershed in west-central Arizona is an area rich in natural beauty and cultural history and is an increasingly popular destination for tourists, recreationists, and permanent residents seeking its temperate climate. The diverse terrain of the region includes broad desert valleys, upland plains, forested mountain ranges, narrow canyons, and riparian areas along perennial stream reaches. The area is predominantly in Yavapai County, which in 1999 was the fastest-growing rural county in the United States (Woods and Poole Economics, Inc., 1999); by 2050, the population is projected to more than double. Such growth will increase demands on water resources. The domestic, industrial, and recreational interests of the population will need to be balanced against protection of riparian, woodland, and other natural areas and their associated wildlife and aquatic habitats. Sound management decisions will be required that are based on an understanding of the interactions between local and regional aquifers, surface-water bodies, and recharge and discharge areas. This understanding must include the influence of climate, geology, topography, and cultural development on those components of the hydrologic system. In 1999, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the Arizona Department of Water Resources (ADWR), initiated a regional investigation of the hydrogeology of the upper and middle Verde River watershed. The project is part of the Rural Watershed Initiative (RWI), a program established by the State of Arizona and managed by the ADWR that addresses water supply issues in rural areas while encouraging participation from stakeholder groups in affected communities. The USGS is performing similar RWI investigations on the Colorado Plateau to the north and in the Mogollon Highlands to the east of the Verde River study area (Parker and Flynn, 2000). The objectives of the RWI investigations are to develop: (1) a single database containing all hydrogeologic data available for the combined areas, (2) an understanding of the geologic units and structures in each area with a focus on how geology influences the storage and movement of ground water, (3) a conceptual model that describes where and how much water enters, flows through, and exits the hydrogeologic system, and (4) a numerical ground-water flow model that can be used to improve understanding of the hydrogeologic system and to test the effects of various scenarios of water-resources development. In 2001, Yavapai County became an additional cooperator in the upper and middle Verde River RWI investigation.

Arizona↗

Evaluation of the use of reach transmissivity to quantify leakage beneath Levee 31N, Miami-Dade County, Florida

A coupled ground- and surface-water model (MODBRANCH) was developed to estimate ground-water flow beneath Levee 31N in Miami-Dade County, Florida, and to simulate hydrologic conditions in the surrounding area. The study included compilation of data from monitoring stations, measurement of vertical seepage rates in wetlands, and analysis of the hydrogeologic properties of the ground-water aquifer within the study area. In addition, the MODBRANCH code was modified to calculate the exchange between surface-water channels and ground water using a relation based on the concept of reach transmissivity. The modified reach-transmissivity version of the MODBRANCH code was successfully tested on three simple problems with known analytical solutions. It was also tested and determined to function adequately on one field problem that had previously been solved using the unmodified version of the software. The modified version of MODBRANCH was judged to have performed satisfactorily, and it required about 60 percent as many iterations to reach a solution. Additionally, its input parameters are more physically-based and less dependent on model-grid spacing. A model of the Levee 31N area was developed and used with the original and modified versions of MODBRANCH, which produced similar output. The mean annual modeled ground-water heads differed by only 0.02 foot, and the mean annual canal discharge differed by less than 1.0 cubic foot per second. Seepage meters were used to quantify vertical seepage rates in the Everglades wetlands area west of Levee 31N. A comparison between results from the seepage meters and from the computer model indicated substantial differences that seemed to be a result of local variations in the hydraulic properties in the topmost part of the Biscayne aquifer. The transmissivity of the Biscayne aquifer was estimated to be 1,400,000 square feet per day in the study area. The computer model was employed to simulate seepage of ground water beneath Levee 31N. Modeled seepage rates were usually between 100 and 400 cubic feet per day per foot of levee, but extreme values ranged from about -200 to 500 cubic feet per day (positive values indicate eastward seepage beneath the levee). The modeled seepage results were used to develop an algorithm to estimate seepage based on head differential at selected monitoring stations. The algorithm was determined to adequately predict ground-water seepage.

Florida↗

Ground-water flow in the shallow aquifer system at the Naval Weapons Station Yorktown, Virginia

The Environmental Directorate of the Naval Weapons Station Yorktown, Virginia, is concerned about possible contamination of ground water at the Station. Ground water at the Station flows through a shallow system of layered aquifers and leaky confining units. The units of the shallow aquifer system are the Columbia aquifer, the Cornwallis Cave confining unit, the Cornwallis Cave aquifer, the Yorktown confining unit, and the Yorktown-Eastover aquifer. The Eastover-Calvert confining unit separates the shallow aquifer system from deeper confined aquifers beneath the Station. A three-dimensional, finite-difference, ground-water flow model was used to simulate steady-state ground-water flow of the shallow aquifer system in and around the Station. The model simulated ground-water flow from the peninsular drainage divide that runs across the Lackey Plain near the southern end of the Station north to King Creek and the York River and south to Skiffes Creek and the James River. The model was calibrated by minimizing the root mean square error between 4 7 measured and corresponding simulated water levels. The calibrated model was used to determine the ground-water budget and general directions of ground-water flow. A particle-tracking routine was used with the calibrated model to estimate groundwater flow paths, flow rates, and traveltimes from selected sites at the Station. Simulated ground-water flow velocities of the Station-area model were small beneath the interstream areas of the Lackey Plain and Croaker Flat, but increased outward toward the streams and rivers where the hydraulic gradients are larger. If contaminants from the land surface entered the water table at or near the interstream areas of the Station, where hydraulic gradients are smaller, they would migrate more slowly than if they entered closer to the streams or the shores of the rivers where gradients commonly are larger. The ground-water flow simulations indicate that some ground water leaks downward from the water table to the Yorktown confining unit and, where the confining unit is absent, to the Yorktown-Eastover aquifer. The velocities of advective-driven contaminants would decrease considerably when entering the Yorktown confining unit because the hydraulic conductivity of the confining unit is small compared to that of the aquifers. Any contaminants that moved with advective ground-water flow near the groundwater divide of the Lackey Plain would move relatively slowly because the hydraulic gradients are small there. The direction in which the contaminants would move, however, would be determined by precisely where the contaminants entered the water table. The model was not designed to accurately simulate ground-water flow paths through local karst features. Beneath Croaker Flat, ground water flows downward through the Columbia aquifer and the Yorktown confining unit into the Yorktown-Eastover aquifer. Analyses of the movement of simulated particles from two adjacent sites at Croaker Flat indicated that ground-water flow paths were similar at first but diverged and discharged to different tributaries of Indian Field Creek or to the York River. These simulations indicate that complex and possibly divergent flow paths and traveltimes are possible at the Station. Although the Station-area model is not detailed enough to simulate ground-water flow at the scales commonly used to track and remediate contaminants at specific sites, general concepts about possible contaminant migration at the Station can be inferred from the simulations.

Virginia↗

Postaudit of head and transmissivity estimates and ground-water flow models of Avra Valley, Arizona

Ground water from regional alluvial-aquifer systems is the main source of water in the alluvial basins of Arizona, such as Avra Valley. Ground-water flow models are used to assess ground-water availability and the effects of development on the regional ground-water resources. A postaudit of regional-head and transmissivity estimates and the ground-water flow models of Avra Valley was used to evaluate potential errors in the distribution of aquifer properties and recharge that can cause predictive errors in ground-water models. Simulations of predevelopment conditions in 1940 and historical development conditions for 1960-79 provided the basis of comparison for assessing predictive errors of historical conditions for two regional ground-water flow models. Potential errors in the estimation of the regional-head and transmissivity and alternate conceptual models were compared with an existing calibrated two-layer flow model for predevelopment (1940) and developed conditions (1940-85). Measured heads can be subdivided into a north-central region and a region south of the basin constriction. A more variable regional-head surface typical of developed aquifer systems was indicated by kriged developed heads (1985) with about 50 percent more uncertainty than predevelopment heads (1940). Incorporating heads from adjacent basins at the ground-water inflow and outflow regions reduced uncertainty in kriged heads for these boundary areas. Universal cokriging of heads with the strongly correlated land-surface altitudes may improve regional-head estimates and model comparisons where head data are sparse. Local transmissivity estimates can be subdivided into northern and south-central regions that are distributed along the valley axis and the Santa Cruz River. Regional geostatistical estimates of transmissivity, which are based solely on local estimates, are low in the northern part of Avra Valley and are high in the south-central part when compared with the head-conditioned model-derived estimates. These differences may be related to a systematic bias between aquifer-test conditions and methods of aquifer-test analysis. Cokriging transmissivities with specific capacity and silt-and-clay content provided the least uncertainty of all kriged estimates. Predictive errors for the Avra Valley model are the result of a different combination of factors that become significant in the simulation of ground-water flow for the periods representing predevelopment, historical development, and future development conditions. Predictive errors for simulation of predevelopment conditions are caused by potential systematic errors in estimates of local transmissivity, uncertainty in long-term mountain-front recharge, and uncertainty in predevelopment heads along the margins of the basin where recharge and transmissivity estimates are constrained by heads during model calibration. Analog-model historical predictions of future development indicate changes to 1985 were as much as 50 to 100 feet different from actual declines that were caused by errors in the spatial distribution and not the total amount of estimated future pumpage. Predictive errors for simulation of historical development (1960-79) appear to be caused to a greater extent by combined errors in estimates of transmissivity and storage properties and to a lesser extent by estimates of net withdrawal and subsidence. Comparison of the two digital models resulted in differences in transmissivity of as much as 30,000 feet squared per day and differences in specific yield of as much as 0.1. In combination with some differences in net withdrawal, these model-parameter differences resulted in local differences in change in storage of as much as 4,000 acre-feet per square mile and are equivalent to historical predictive errors in water levels of as much as 40 feet. Areas with no differences in model parameters yield comparable simulated water-level declines that are similar to measured declines. The pattern of differences in transmissivity and storage parameters are similar to differences between model-derived estimates conditioned on heads and related geostatistical estimates derived from aquifer-test estimates. A postaudit analysis of alternate conceptual models was explored on the basis of well-by-well comparisons of reductions in mean error and variance, and through the use of standardized calibration-error maps for predevelopment heads (1940) and developed heads (1985). Calibration-error maps provide a useful tool for exploring the spatial structure of model errors and the relative adequacy of model fit that is not available from traditional methods of model comparison. Calibration-error maps indicate estimated heads were too high in the southern part of Avra Valley, and estimated heads were too low in the northern part. Increased transmissivity in the southern part of the lower model layer; decreased hydraulic conductivity in the southwestern part of the upper layer; reduced ground-water inflow from Altar Valley; and increased recharge along the Tortolita Mountains, Tucson Mountains, and Brawley Wash yielded a significantly better model for predevelopment but not for developed conditions (1940-85). This may indicate that alternate conceptual models are different for different time periods or require analysis of time-varying model parameters for developed conditions, such as climatically variable recharge. Predictive errors for future simulations (1986-2025) also could potentially include errors of more than 40 ft from omission of subsidence from the simulation of regional ground-water flow in Avra Valley. Further refinement of the changing conceptual model of an aquifer system under continuing development and variable climate, such as Avra Valley, will require a variety of additional geophysical, geochemical, and hydraulic field data.

Arizona↗

Simulation of ground-water flow in glaciofluvial aquifers in the Grand Rapids area, Minnesota

A calibrated steady-state, finite-difference, ground-waterflow model was constructed to simulate ground-water flow in three glaciofluvial aquifers, defined in this report as the upper, middle, and lower aquifers, in an area of about 114 mi2 surrounding the city of Grand Rapids in north-central Minnesota. The calibrated model will be used by Minnesota Department of Health and communities in the Grand Rapids area in the development of wellhead protection plans for their water supplies. The model was calibrated through comparison of simulated ground-water levels to measured static water levels in 351 wells, and comparison of simulated base-flow rates to estimated base-flow rates for reaches of the Mississippi and Prairie Rivers. Model statistics indicate that the model tends to overestimate ground-water levels. The root mean square errors ranged from +12.83 ft in wells completed in the upper aquifer to +19.10 ft in wells completed in the middle aquifer. Mean absolute differences between simulated and measured water levels ranged from +4.43 ft for wells completed in the upper aquifer to +9.25 ft for wells completed in the middle aquifer. Mean algebraic differences ranged from +9.35 ft for wells completed in the upper aquifer to +14.44 ft for wells completed in the middle aquifer, with the positive differences indicating that the simulated water levels were higher than the measured water levels. Percentage errors between simulated and estimated base-flow rates for the three monitored reaches all were less than 10 percent, indicating good agreement. Simulated ground-water levels were most sensitive to changes in general-head boundary conductance, indicating that this characteristic is the predominant model input variable controlling steady-state water-level conditions. Simulated groundwater flow to stream reaches was most sensitive to changes in horizontal hydraulic conductivity, indicating that this characteristic is the predominant model input variable controlling steady-state flow conditions.

Minnesota↗

Assessment of natural attenuation of ground-water contamination at sites FT03, LF13, and WP14/LF15, Dover Air Force Base, Delaware

Water-quality, aquifer-sediment, and hydrologic data were used to assess the effectiveness of natural attenuation of ground-water contamination at Fire Training Area Three, the Rubble Area Landfill, the Liquid Waste Disposal Landfill, and the Receiver Station Landfill in the East Management Unit of Dover Air Force Base, Delaware. These sites, which are contaminated with chlorinated solvents and fuel hydrocarbons, are undergoing long-term monitoring to determine if natural attenuation continues to sufficiently reduce contaminant concentrations to meet regulatory requirements. This report is the first assessment of the effectiveness of natural attenuation at these sites since long-term monitoring began in 1999, and follows a preliminary investigation done in 1995-96. This assessment was done by the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the U.S. Air Force. Since 1995-96, additional information has been collected and used in the current assessment. The conclusions in this report are based primarily on ground-water samples collected from January through March 2000. Previous analytical results from selected wells, available geologic and geophysical well logs, and newly acquired information such as sediment organic-carbon measurements, hydraulic-conductivity measurements determined from slug tests on wells in the natural attenuation study area, and water-level measurements from surficial-aquifer wells also were used in this assessment. This information was used to: (1) calculate retardation factors and estimate contaminant migration velocities, (2) improve estimates of ground-water flow directions and inferred contaminant migration pathways, (3) better define the areal extent of contamination and the proximity of contaminants to discharge areas and the Base boundary, (4) develop a better understanding of the vertical variability of contaminant concentrations and redox conditions, (5) evaluate the effects of temporal changes on concentrations in the plumes and source areas, and (6) determine whether intrinsic biodegradation is occurring at these sites. The water-quality data indicate that intrinsic biodegradation is occurring at all three sites. The strongest indication of intrinsic biodegradation is the detection of tetrachloroethene and trichloroethene breakdown products within and down-gradient of the source areas. The patterns of electron acceptors and metabolic by-products indicate that contaminant biodegradation has changed the prevailing geochemistry of the surficial aquifer, creating the strongly reducing conditions necessary for chlorinated solvent biodegradation. Geochemical changes include depleted dissolved oxygen and elevated ferrous iron and methane levels relative to concentrations in uncontaminated zones of the surficial aquifer. At Fire Training Area Three and the Rubble Area Landfill sites, natural attenuation appears to be adequate for controlling the migration of the contaminant plumes. At the third site, the Liquid Waste Disposal and Receiver Station Landfills, the plume is larger and the uncertainty about the effectiveness of natural attenuation in reducing contaminant concentrations and controlling plume migration is greater. Ground-water data indicate, however, that U.S. Environmental Protection Agency maximum contaminant levels were not exceeded in any point-of-compliance wells located along the Base boundary. The information presented in this report led to the development of improved conceptual models for these sites, and to the recognition of four issues that are currently unclear and may need further study. These issues include delineating the areal and vertical extent of the contaminant plumes in greater detail, determining the extent of intrinsic biodegradation downgradient of the Liquid Waste Disposal and Receiver Station Landfills, determining the fate of contaminants in the ground-water discharge areas, and determining the effect of temporal variability in source concentrations and ground-water flow patterns on the plume migrating from the Liquid Waste Disposal and Receiver Station Landfills. Some of these issues have been addressed with additional data collection since the January-March 2000 sampling round.

Delaware↗

Precipitation-runoff and streamflow-routing models for the Willamette River basin, Oregon

Precipitation-runoff and streamflow-routing models were constructed and assessed as part of a water-quality study of the Willamette River Basin. The study was a cooperative effort between the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and the Oregon Department of Environmental Quality (ODEQ) and was coordinated with the USGS National Water-Quality Assessment (NAWQA) study of the Willamette River. Routing models are needed to estimate streamflow so that water-quality constituent loads can be calculated from measured concentrations and so that sources, sinks, and downstream changes in those loads can be identified. Runoff models are needed to estimate ungaged-tributary inflows for routing models and to identify flow contributions from different parts of the basin. The runoff and routing models can be run either separately or together to simulate streamflow at various locations and to examine streamflow contributions from overland flow, shallow-subsurface flow, and ground-water flow. The 11,500-square-mile Willamette River Basin was partitioned into 21 major basins and 253 subbasins. For each subbasin, digital data layers of land use, soils, geology, and topography were combined in a geographic information system (GIS) to define hydrologic response units (HRU's), the basic computational unit for the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS). Spatial data layers were also used to calculate noncalibrated PRMS parameter values. Other PRMS parameter values were obtained from 10 nearby calibrated subbasins of representative location and character. About 760 miles of the Willamette River system were partitioned into 4 main-stem networks and 17 major tributary networks for streamflow routing. Data from time-of-travel studies, discharge measurements, and flood analyses were used to develop equations that related stream cross-sectional area to discharge and stream width to discharge. These relations were derived for all 21 stream networks at approximately 3-mile intervals and used in the Diffusion Analogy Flow model (DAFLOW) in streamflow routing. Ten representative runoff models and 11 network-routing models were calibrated for water years 1972-75 and verified for water years 1976-78. These were the periods with the most complete and widespread streamflow record for the Willamette River Basin. Observed and estimated daily precipitation and daily minimum and maximum air temperature were used as input to the runoff models. The resulting coefficient of determination (R2) for the representative runoff models ranged from 0.69 to 0.93 for the calibration period and from 0.63 to 0.92 for the verification period; absolute errors ranged from 18 to 39 percent and from 27 to 51 percent, respectively. Bias error for the runoff modeling ranged from + 13 to -32 percent. Observed daily streamflow data were used as input to the network-routing models where available, and simulated streamflows from runoff model results were used for ungaged areas. Absolute error for the network-routing models ranged from about 21 percent for the Molalla River model, for which 70 percent of the subbasin was ungaged, to about 4 percent for the Willamette main-stem model (Albany to Salem), for which only 9 percent of the subbasin was ungaged. With an input of current streamflow, precipitation, and air temperature data the combined runoff and routing models can provide current estimates of streamflow at almost 500 locations on the main stem and major tributaries of the Willamette River with a high degree of accuracy. Relative contributions of surface runoff, subsurface flow, and ground-water flow can be assessed for 1 to 10 HRU classes in each of 253 subbasins identified for precipitation-runoff modeling. Model outputs were used with a water-quality model to simulate the movement of dye in the Pudding River as an example

Oregon↗

Review of Phosphorus Control Measures in the United States and Their Effects on Water Quality

Historical information on phosphorus loadings to the environment and the effect on water quality are summarized in this report, which was produced as part of the U.S. Geological Survey's National Water-Quality Assessment (NAWQA) Program. Phosphorus is a water-quality constituent of concern because it is often the limiting nutrient responsible for accelerated eutrophication in water bodies. Phosphorus inputs to the environment have increased since 1950 as the use of phosphate fertilizer, manure, and phosphate laundry detergent increased; however, the manufacture of phosphate detergent for household laundry was ended voluntarily in about 1994 after many States had established phosphate detergent bans. Total phosphorus concentrations in raw wastewater effluent contained about 3 milligrams per liter of total phosphorus during the 1940's, increased to about 11 milligrams per liter at the height of phosphate detergent use (1970), and have currently declined to about 5 milligrams per liter. However, in some cases, tertiary wastewater treatment still is needed to effectively improve water quality of streams. Downward trends in phosphorus concentrations since 1970 have been identified in many streams, but median total phosphorus concentrations still exceed the recommended limit of 0.1 milligram per liter across much of the Nation. Data from the NAWQA Program are representative of a variety of phosphorus-control measures, and, therefore, may be used to evaluate the effects of various control strategies. Current areas of concern include: evaluation of the effects of increased manure loadings of phosphorus on soil phosphorus and, subsequently, on ground water and subsurface runoff; determination of point-source and nonpoint-source components of phosphorus loads by geographic modeling and hydrologic separation techniques; and development of methods or indices to evaluate nutrient impairment in streams and rivers to serve as a basis for developing phosphorus criteria or standards.

Water-Resources Investigations Report↗

Methods of estimating recharge to the Floridan aquifer in northeast Florida

Recharge to the principal artesian aquifer in a six-county area in northeast Florida was calculated using closed contour methods , water budgets, and formulas for computing leakage through confining beds. Each estimate was tested in a computer model of groundwater flow to see which estimate was best. Calculations of flow medway between the 24- and 21-meter potentiometric contours show a total flow of 164,000 cubic meters per day, a significant part ofm which must be recharged within the closed 24-meter controur. Flow midway between the 18- and 15-meter contours was calculated to be 342,000 cubic meters per day. A water budget for the same area in water year 1972 indicates a potential recharge rate of 2,570,000 cubic meters per day. Digital modeling of ground-water flow in northeast Florida shows that the recharge rate calculated by closed contour is insufficient to balance the natural discharge of the regional ground-water system, whereas the rate calculated from water budgets is too great. Therefore, the best way to simulate the recharge mechanism of the northeast Florida flow model may be with a constant head boundary, rather than with constant flux. (Woodard-USGS)

Florida↗

Hydrogeologic Setting and Ground-Water Flow in the Leetown Area, West Virginia

The Leetown Science Center is a research facility operated by the U.S. Geological Survey that occupies approximately 455-acres near Kearneysville, Jefferson County, West Virginia. Aquatic and fish research conducted at the Center requires adequate supplies of high-quality, cold ground water. Three large springs and three production wells currently (in 2006) supply water to the Center. The recent construction of a second research facility (National Center for Cool and Cold Water Aquaculture) operated by the U.S. Department of Agriculture and co-located on Center property has placed additional demands on available water resources in the area. A three-dimensional steady-state finite-difference ground-water flow model was developed to simulate ground-water flow in the Leetown area and was used to assess the availability of ground water to sustain current and anticipated future demands. The model also was developed to test a conceptual model of ground-water flow in the complex karst aquifer system in the Leetown area. Due to the complexity of the karst aquifer system, a multidisciplinary research study was required to define the hydrogeologic setting. Geologic mapping, surface- and borehole-geophysical surveys, stream base-flow surveys, and aquifer tests were conducted to provide the hydrogeologic data necessary to develop and calibrate the model. It would not have been possible to develop a numerical model of the study area without the intensive data collection and methods developments components of the larger, more comprehensive hydrogeologic investigation. Results of geologic mapping and surface-geophysical surveys verified the presence of several prominent thrust faults and identified additional faults and other complex geologic structures (including overturned anticlines and synclines) in the area. These geologic structures are known to control ground-water flow in the region. Results of this study indicate that cross-strike faults and fracture zones are major avenues of ground-water flow. Prior to this investigation, the conceptual model of ground-water flow for the region focused primarily on bedding planes and strike-parallel faults and joints as controls on ground-water flow but did not recognize the importance of cross-strike faults and fracture zones that allow ground water to flow downgradient across or through less permeable geologic formations. Results of the ground-water flow simulation indicate that current operations at the Center do not substantially affect either streamflow (less than a 5-percent reduction in annual streamflow) or ground-water levels in the Leetown area under normal climatic conditions but potentially could have greater effects on streamflow during long-term drought (reduction in streamflow of approximately 14 percent). On the basis of simulation results, ground-water withdrawals based on the anticipated need for an additional 150 to 200 gal/min (gallons per minute) of water at the Center also would not seriously affect streamflow (less than 8 to 9 percent reduction in streamflow) or ground-water levels in the area during normal climatic conditions. During drought conditions, however, the effects of current ground-water withdrawals and anticipated additional withdrawals of 150 to 200 gal/min to augment existing supplies result in moderate to substantial declines in water levels of 0.5-1.2 feet (ft) in the vicinity of the Center's springs and production wells. Streamflow was predicted to be reduced locally by approximately 21 percent. Such withdrawals during a drought or prolonged period of below normal ground-water levels would result in substantial declines in the flow of the Center's springs and likely would not be sustainable for more than a few months. The drought simulated in this model was roughly equivalent to the more than 1-year drought that affected the region from November 1998 through February 2000. The potential reduction in streamflow is a result of capture of ground water tha

Scientific Investigations Report↗

Reassessment of ground-water recharge and simulated ground-water availability for the Hawi area of North Kohala, Hawaii

An estimate of ground-water availability in the Hawi area of north Kohala, Hawaii, is needed to determine whether ground-water resources are adequate to meet future demand within the area and other areas to the south. For the Hawi area, estimated average annual recharge from infiltration of rainfall, fog drip, and irrigation is 37.5 million gallons per day from a daily water budget. Low and high annual recharge estimates for the Hawi area that incorporate estimated uncertainty are 19.9 and 55.4 million gallons per day, respectively. The recharge estimates from this study are lower than the recharge of 68.4 million gallons per day previously estimated from a monthly water budget. Three ground-water models, using the low, intermediate, and high recharge estimates (19.9, 37.5, and 55.4 million gallons per day, respectively), were developed for the Hawi area to simulate ground-water levels and discharges for the 1990?s. To assess potential ground-water availability, the numerical ground-water flow models were used to simulate the response of the freshwater-lens system to withdrawals at rates in excess of the average 1990?s withdrawal rates. Because of uncertainty in the recharge estimate, estimates of ground-water availability also are uncertain. Results from numerical simulations indicate that for appropriate well sites, depths, and withdrawal rates (1) for the low recharge estimate (19.9 million gallons per day) it may be possible to develop an additional 10 million gallons per day of fresh ground water from the Hawi area and maintain a freshwater-lens thickness of 160 feet near the withdrawal sites, (2) for the intermediate recharge estimate (37.5 million gallons per day) it may be possible to develop an additional 15 million gallons per day of fresh ground water from the Hawi area and maintain a freshwater-lens thickness of 190 feet near the withdrawal sites, and (3) for the high recharge estimate (55.4 million gallons per day) it may be possible to develop at least an additional 20 million gallons per day of fresh ground water from the Hawi area and maintain a freshwater-lens thickness of 200 feet near the withdrawal sites. Other well-field configurations than the ones considered potentially could be used to develop more fresh ground water than indicated by the scenarios tested in this study. Depth, spacing, and withdrawal rates of individual wells are important considerations in determining ground-water availability. The regional models developed for this study cannot predict whether local saltwater intrusion problems may occur at individual withdrawal sites. Results of this study underscore the importance of collecting new information to better constrain the recharge estimates.

Hawaii↗

Annual compilation and analysis of hydrologic data for Escondido Creek, San Antonio River basin, Texas

Introduction History of Small Watershed Projects in Texas The U.S. Soil Conservation Service is actively engaged in the installation of flood and soil erosion reducing measures in Texas under the authority of the "Flood Control Act of 1936 and 1944" and "Watershed Protection and Flood Prevention Act" (Public Law 566), as amended. The Soil Conservation Service has found a total of approximately 3,500 floodwater-retarding structures to be physically and economically feasible in Texas. As of September 30, 1970, 1,439 of these structures had been built. This watershed-development program will have varying but important effects on the surface and ground-water resources of river basins, especially where a large number of the floodwater-retarding structures are built. Basic hydrologic data under natural and developed conditions are needed to appraise the effects of the structures on the yield and mode of occurrence of runoff. Hydrologic investigations of these small watersheds were begun by the Geological Survey in 1951 and are now being made in 12 study areas (fig. 1). These investigations are being made in cooperation with the Texas Water Development Board, the Soil Conservation Service, the San Antonio River Authority, the city of Dallas, and the Tarrant County Water Control and Improvement District No. 1. The 12 study areas were chosen to sample watershed having different rainfall, topography, geology, and soils. In five of the study areas, (North, Little Elm, Mukewater, little Pond-North Elm, and Pin Oak Creeks), streamflow and rainfall records were collected prior to construction of the floodwater-retarding structures, thus affording the opportunity for analyses of the conditions "before and after" development. A summary of the development of the floodwater-retarding structures in each study areas of September 30, 1970, is shown in table 1. Objectives of the Texas Small Watersheds Project The purpose of these investigations is to collect sufficient data to meeting the following objectives: To determine the net effect of floodwater-retarding structures on the regimen of streamflow at downstream points. To determine the effectiveness of the structures as ground-water recharge facilities. To determine the effect of the structures on the sediment yield at downstream points. To develop relationships between maximum rates and/or volumes of runoff with rainfall in small natural watersheds. To develop a stream-system model for basins with floodwater-retarding structures. To determine the minimum instrumentation necessary for estimating the flood hydrographs below a system of structures, as needed for downstream water-management operation. Purpose and Scope of this Basic-Data Report This report, which is the tenth in a series of basic-data reports published annually for the Escondido Creek study area, contains the rainfall, runoff, and storage data collected during the 1970 water year for the 72.4-square-mile area above the stream-gaging station Escondido Creek at Kenedy, Texas. The location of floodwater-retarding structures and hydrologic-instrument installations in the Escondido Creek study area are shown on figure 2. This investigation is scheduled to continue through a period of both above- and below-normal precipitation to define the various factors used in the analyses of rainfall-runoff relationship. To facilitate the publication and distribution of this report at the earliest feasible time, certain material contained herein does not conform to the formal publication standards of the U.S. Geological Survey.

Texas↗