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USGS2008

Arctic climate change and its impacts on the ecology of the North Atlantic

Arctic climate change from the Paleocene epoch to the present is reconstructed with the objective of assessing its recent and future impacts on the ecology of the North Atlantic. A recurring theme in Earth's paleoclimate record is the importance of the Arctic atmosphere, ocean, and cryosphere in regulating global climate on a variety of spatial and temporal scales. A second recurring theme in this record is the importance of freshwater export from the Arctic in regulating global- to basin-scale ocean circulation patterns and climate. Since the 1970s, historically unprecedented changes have been observed in the Arctic as climate warming has increased precipitation, river discharge, and glacial as well as sea-ice melting. In addition, modal shifts in the atmosphere have altered Arctic Ocean circulation patterns and the export of freshwater into the North Atlantic. The combination of these processes has resulted in variable patterns of freshwater export from the Arctic Ocean and the emergence of salinity anomalies that have periodically freshened waters in the North Atlantic. Since the early 1990s, changes in Arctic Ocean circulation patterns and freshwater export have been associated with two types of ecological responses in the North Atlantic. The first of these responses has been an ongoing series of biogeographic range expansions by boreal plankton, including renewal of the trans-Arctic exchanges of Pacific species with the Atlantic. The second response was a dramatic regime shift in the shelf ecosystems of the Northwest Atlantic that occurred during the early 1990s. This regime shift resulted from freshening and stratification of the shelf waters, which in turn could be linked to changes in the abundances and seasonal cycles of phytoplankton, zooplankton, and higher trophic-level consumer populations. It is predicted that the recently observed ecological responses to Arctic climate change in the North Atlantic will continue into the near future if current trends in sea ice, freshwater export, and surface ocean salinity continue. It is more difficult to predict ecological responses to abrupt climate change in the more distant future as tipping points in the Earth's climate system are exceeded.

Ecology↗

USGS2014

Parameter optimization, sensitivity, and uncertainty analysis of an ecosystem model at a forest flux tower site in the United States

Ecosystem models are useful tools for understanding ecological processes and for sustainable management of resources. In biogeochemical field, numerical models have been widely used for investigating carbon dynamics under global changes from site to regional and global scales. However, it is still challenging to optimize parameters and estimate parameterization uncertainty for complex process-based models such as the Erosion Deposition Carbon Model (EDCM), a modified version of CENTURY, that consider carbon, water, and nutrient cycles of ecosystems. This study was designed to conduct the parameter identifiability, optimization, sensitivity, and uncertainty analysis of EDCM using our developed EDCM-Auto, which incorporated a comprehensive R package—Flexible Modeling Framework (FME) and the Shuffled Complex Evolution (SCE) algorithm. Using a forest flux tower site as a case study, we implemented a comprehensive modeling analysis involving nine parameters and four target variables (carbon and water fluxes) with their corresponding measurements based on the eddy covariance technique. The local sensitivity analysis shows that the plant production-related parameters (e.g., PPDF1 and PRDX) are most sensitive to the model cost function. Both SCE and FME are comparable and performed well in deriving the optimal parameter set with satisfactory simulations of target variables. Global sensitivity and uncertainty analysis indicate that the parameter uncertainty and the resulting output uncertainty can be quantified, and that the magnitude of parameter-uncertainty effects depends on variables and seasons. This study also demonstrates that using the cutting-edge R functions such as FME can be feasible and attractive for conducting comprehensive parameter analysis for ecosystem modeling.

Massachusetts↗

USGS2016

Panarchy use in environmental science for risk and resilience planning

Environmental sciences have an important role in informing sustainable management of built environments by providing insights about the drivers and potentially negative impacts of global environmental change. Here, we discuss panarchy theory, a multi-scale hierarchical concept that accounts for the dynamism of complex socio-ecological systems, especially for those systems with strong cross-scale feedbacks. The idea of panarchy underlies much of system resilience, focusing on how systems respond to known and unknown threats. Panarchy theory can provide a framework for qualitative and quantitative research and application in the environmental sciences, which can in turn inform the ongoing efforts in socio-technical resilience thinking and adaptive and transformative approaches to management.

Environment Systems and Decisions↗

USGS2011

Shifting species interactions in terrestrial dryland ecosystems under altered water availability and climate change

Species interactions play key roles in linking the responses of populations, communities, and ecosystems to environmental change. For instance, species interactions are an important determinant of the complexity of changes in trophic biomass with variation in resources. Water resources are a major driver of terrestrial ecology and climate change is expected to greatly alter the distribution of this critical resource. While previous studies have documented strong effects of global environmental change on species interactions in general, responses can vary from region to region. Dryland ecosystems occupy more than one-third of the Earth's land mass, are greatly affected by changes in water availability, and are predicted to be hotspots of climate change. Thus, it is imperative to understand the effects of environmental change on these globally significant ecosystems. Here, we review studies of the responses of population-level plant-plant, plant-herbivore, and predator-prey interactions to changes in water availability in dryland environments in order to develop new hypotheses and predictions to guide future research. To help explain patterns of interaction outcomes, we developed a conceptual model that views interaction outcomes as shifting between (1) competition and facilitation (plant-plant), (2) herbivory, neutralism, or mutualism (plant-herbivore), or (3) neutralism and predation (predator-prey), as water availability crosses physiological, behavioural, or population-density thresholds. We link our conceptual model to hypothetical scenarios of current and future water availability to make testable predictions about the influence of changes in water availability on species interactions. We also examine potential implications of our conceptual model for the relative importance of top-down effects and the linearity of patterns of change in trophic biomass with changes in water availability. Finally, we highlight key research needs and some possible broader impacts of our findings. Overall, we hope to stimulate and guide future research that links changes in water availability to patterns of species interactions and the dynamics of populations and communities in dryland ecosystems.

Biological Reviews↗

USGS2002

Global climate change and vector-borne diseases

Global warming will have different effects on different diseases because of the complex and idiosynchratic interactions between vectors, hosts, and pathogens that influence transmission dynamics of each pathogen. Human activities, including urbanization, rapid global travel, and vector management, have profound effects on disease transmission that can operate on more rapid time scales than does global climate change. The general concern about global warming encouraging the spread of tropical diseases is legitimate, but the effects vary among diseases, and the ecological implications are difficult to predict.

RINHewS: Newsletter of the Rhode Island Natural Hi↗

USGS2025

Establishing historical baselines of arthropod assemblages using rodent paleomiddens

Aim Arthropods are under-represented in paleoecological studies but are critical agents in ecological processes. Despite rigorous documentation of diverse arthropod assemblages from ancient rodent (or paleo) middens worldwide, their use for studying ancient arthropod diversity has stalled in recent decades. Here, we review published studies to identify how paleomidden arthropods can be leveraged to address significant questions in ecology and synthesise spatiotemporal trends in ancient arthropod diversity. Location Global with a focus on the Americas. Time Period From ~40,000 to 100 years before present. Major Taxa Studied Fossil arthropods preserved in rodent paleomiddens. Methods We identified four primary objectives in ecology that can be advanced using paleomidden arthropod fossils: the reconstruction of ancient biodiversity, the elucidation of mechanisms and processes driving arthropod range shifts, the incorporation of arthropods into ancient trophic webs, and the assessment of adaptive responses to changing environments. Results We identified 20 papers reporting arthropod remains, of which 14 provided data suitable for quantitative analyses. Although no significant differences in arthropod community diversity were found across broad geographic regions, substantial differences in community structure were observed. In North America, we also detected a decline in arthropod diversity from 10 to 5 ka BP, driven primarily by the absence of high-diversity assemblages during this period. Main Conclusions Paleomidden arthropods remain an underutilised ecological resource that can be leveraged to improve the inferential scope of arthropod research across spatiotemporal gradients. Collaboration between paleo- and neoecologists could help expand the sampling of ancient and modern arthropod communities, particularly those associated with paleomiddens, to create high-resolution datasets spanning important periods in biogeographical history. Paleomidden arthropods will remain a fundamental component for understanding arthropod biodiversity changes in the past, present, and future.

Global Ecology and Biogeography↗

USGS1993

Integration of environmental simulation models with satellite remote sensing and geographic information systems technologies: case studies

Environmental modelers are testing and evaluating a prototype land cover characteristics database for the conterminous United States developed by the EROS Data Center of the U.S. Geological Survey and the University of Nebraska Center for Advanced Land Management Information Technologies. This database was developed from multi temporal, 1-kilometer advanced very high resolution radiometer (AVHRR) data for 1990 and various ancillary data sets such as elevation, ecological regions, and selected climatic normals. Several case studies using this database were analyzed to illustrate the integration of satellite remote sensing and geographic information systems technologies with land-atmosphere interactions models at a variety of spatial and temporal scales. The case studies are representative of contemporary environmental simulation modeling at local to regional levels in global change research, land and water resource management, and environmental simulation modeling at local to regional levels in global change research, land and water resource management and environmental risk assessment. The case studies feature land surface parameterizations for atmospheric mesoscale and global climate models; biogenic-hydrocarbons emissions models; distributed parameter watershed and other hydrological models; and various ecological models such as ecosystem, dynamics, biogeochemical cycles, ecotone variability, and equilibrium vegetation models. The case studies demonstrate the important of multi temporal AVHRR data to develop to develop and maintain a flexible, near-realtime land cover characteristics database. Moreover, such a flexible database is needed to derive various vegetation classification schemes, to aggregate data for nested models, to develop remote sensing algorithms, and to provide data on dynamic landscape characteristics. The case studies illustrate how such a database supports research on spatial heterogeneity, land use, sensitivity analysis, and scaling issues involving regional extrapolations and parameterizations of dynamic land processes within simulation models.

Pecora 12 Symposium↗

USGS2012

Modeling responses of large-river fish populations to global climate change through downscaling and incorporation of predictive uncertainty

Climate change operates over a broad range of spatial and temporal scales. Understanding its effects on ecosystems requires multi-scale models. For understanding effects on fish populations of riverine ecosystems, climate predicted by coarse-resolution Global Climate Models must be downscaled to Regional Climate Models to watersheds to river hydrology to population response. An additional challenge is quantifying sources of uncertainty given the highly nonlinear nature of interactions between climate variables and community level processes. We present a modeling approach for understanding and accomodating uncertainty by applying multi-scale climate models and a hierarchical Bayesian modeling framework to Midwest fish population dynamics and by linking models for system components together by formal rules of probability. The proposed hierarchical modeling approach will account for sources of uncertainty in forecasts of community or population response. The goal is to evaluate the potential distributional changes in an ecological system, given distributional changes implied by a series of linked climate and system models under various emissions/use scenarios. This understanding will aid evaluation of management options for coping with global climate change. In our initial analyses, we found that predicted pallid sturgeon population responses were dependent on the climate scenario considered.

Missouri River↗

USGS2022

Wildfire influences individual growth and breeding dispersal, but not survival and recruitment in a montane amphibian

Global wildfire regimes are changing rapidly, with widespread increases in the size, frequency, duration, and severity of wildfires. Whereas the effects of wildfire on ecological state variables such as occupancy, abundance, and species diversity are relatively well documented, changes in population vital rates (e.g., survival, recruitment) and individual responses (e.g., growth, movement) to wildfire are more limited because of the detailed information needed on the same individuals both pre- and post-fire. We capitalized on the 2018 Roosevelt wildfire, which occurred during our 6-year (2015–2020) capture–mark–recapture study of boreal toads ( Anaxyrus boreas boreas ; n = 1415) in the Bridger-Teton National Forest, USA, to evaluate the responses of population vital rates and individual metrics to wildfire. We employed robust design capture–recapture models to compare the growth, dispersal, survival, and recruitment of adult boreal toads pre- and post-fire at burned versus unburned sites. At burned locations, growth increased 2 years post-fire compared with the year directly following wildfire and was higher 2 years post-fire than any other interval during our study period. Boreal toads dispersed to alternative breeding patches more at burned sites than unburned sites and dispersal increased 2 years post-fire compared with the year directly following wildfire. Annual survival and recruitment neither differed between pre- and post-fire years nor among pre-fire years, the year following wildfire, and 2 years post-fire. We demonstrate that, in certain contexts, dispersal can play a major role in changes to state variables (e.g., abundance) after wildfire, as opposed to other vital rates such as survival and recruitment. Our study represents an important step toward understanding the biological processes that underlie observed patterns in state variables following wildfire, which ultimately will be critical for the effective management of species in landscapes experiencing shifts in fire activity.

Wyoming↗

USGS2016

Establishing a baseline of estuarine submerged aquatic vegetation resources across salinity zones within coastal areas of the northern Gulf of Mexico

Coastal ecosystems are dynamic and productive areas that are vulnerable to effects of global climate change. Despite their potentially limited spatial extent, submerged aquatic vegetation (SAV) beds function in coastal ecosystems as foundation species, and perform important ecological services. However, limited understanding of the factors controlling SAV distribution and abundance across multiple salinity zones (fresh, intermediate, brackish, and saline) in the northern Gulf of Mexico restricts the ability of models to accurately predict resource availability. We sampled 384 potential coastal SAV sites across the northern Gulf of Mexico in 2013 and 2014, and examined community and species-specific SAV distribution and biomass in relation to year, salinity, turbidity, and water depth. After two years of sampling, 14 species of SAV were documented, with three species (coontail [Ceratophyllum demersum], Eurasian watermilfoil [Myriophyllum spicatum], and widgeon grass [Ruppia maritima]) accounting for 54% of above-ground biomass collected. Salinity and water depth were dominant drivers of species assemblages but had little effect on SAV biomass. Predicted changes in salinity and water depths along the northern Gulf of Mexico coast will likely alter SAV production and species assemblages, shifting to more saline and depth-tolerant assemblages, which in turn may affect habitat and food resources for associated faunal species.

Gulf of Mexico↗

USGS2018

Stratifying ocean sampling globally and with depth to account for environmental variability

With increasing depth, the ocean is less sampled for physical, chemical and biological variables. Using the Global Marine Environmental Datasets (GMED) and Ecological Marine Units (EMUs) , we show that spatial variation in environmental variables decreases with depth. This is also the case over temporal scales because seasonal change, surface weather conditions, and biological activity are highest in shallow depths. A stratified sampling approach to ocean sampling is therefore proposed whereby deeper environments, both pelagic and benthic, would be sampled with relatively lower spatial and temporal resolutions. Sampling should combine measurements of physical and chemical parameters with biological species distributions, even though species identification is difficult to automate. Species distribution data are essential to infer ecosystem structure and function from environmental data. We conclude that a globally comprehensive, stratification-based ocean sampling program would be both scientifically justifiable and cost-effective.

Scientific Reports↗

USGS2023

The Landscape Data Commons: A system for standardizing, accessing, and applying large environmental datasets for agroecosystem research and management

Understanding where, when, and why agroecosystems are changing requires quality information about ecosystems that span land tenure, ecological processes, and spatial scales. Over the past two decades, land management agencies and research groups have adopted a suite of standardized methods for monitoring rangelands, which have been implemented at over 85,000 monitoring locations globally. However, the ability to use these data to understand agroecosystem dynamics and change across scales and across land ownership has been limited because, until now, these data have not been available in a harmonized, accessible format for analyses, modeling, and decision-support tools. We present the Landscape Data Commons, a cyberinfrastructure platform that harmonizes and aggregates standardized agroecosystem data, enables linkages to models, and facilitates analysis and interpretation of data within decision-support tools. The Landscape Data Commons provides a community platform for users to contribute data and develop next-generation tools to support agroecosystem management through the 21st century.

Agricultural & Environmental Letters↗

USGS2015

Implications of scale-independent habitat specialization on persistence of a rare small mammal

We assessed the habitat use patterns of the Amargosa vole Microtus californicus scirpensis , an endangered rodent endemic to wetland vegetation along a 3.5 km stretch of the Amargosa River in the Mojave Desert, USA. Our goals were to: (1) quantify the vole’s abundance, occupancy rates and habitat selection patterns along gradients of vegetation cover and spatial scale; (2) identify the processes that likely had the greatest influence on its habitat selection patterns. We trapped voles monthly in six 1 ha grids from January to May 2012 and measured habitat structure at subgrid (View the MathML source225m2) and trap (View the MathML source1m2) scales in winter and spring seasons. Regardless of scale, analyses of density, occupancy and vegetation structure consistently indicated that voles occurred in patches of bulrush (Schoenoplectus americanus ; Cyperaceae) where cover >50%. The majority of evidence indicates the vole's habitat selectivity is likely driven by bulrush providing protection from intense predation. However, a combination of selective habitat use and limited movement resulted in a high proportion of apparently suitable bulrush patches being unoccupied. This suggests the Amargosa vole's habitat selection behavior confers individual benefits but may not allow the overall population to persist in a changing environment.

Global Ecology and Conservation↗

USGS2020

An ecological and conservation perspective

Natural ecosystems are facing unprecedented threats which directly threaten human well-being through decreases in critical ecosystem services (IPBES 2019). The top five drivers causing the largest global impacts to biodiversity and ecosystem services include: 1) changes in land and sea use; 2) direct exploitation of organisms; 3) climate change; 4) pollution, and 5) invasive alien species (IPBES 2019). Although One Health acknowledges the link between the health of humans, animals, and the environment, One Health discussions have historically focused on the prevention and control of infectious disease at the human-animal interface rather than these large-scale drivers of health. While One Health has succeeded in bringing awareness to the need for proactive disease control measures such as strengthened biosecurity and vaccine development (e.g., Machalaba et al., 2018; Middleton et al., 2014), disease is only one component of health. In this chapter, we explore the potential for One Health to shift its focus from disease prevention to health promotion to more fully integrate solutions that protect the health of humans, animals, and the ecosystems on which we all depend for our economies, livelihoods, food security, and health. This shift will facilitate a more seamless inclusion of ecological health and environmental conservation in the One Health paradigm and can serve as the basis for a comprehensive approach to complex problems at the root of global health. We also suggest a framework for creating and applying health metrics for wildlife and ecological systems that will be essential for measuring the success of actions aimed at maintaining or shifting systems to desired states.

Book chapter↗

USGS2023

Observed and projected functional reorganization of riverine fish assemblages from global change

Climate and land-use/land-cover change (‘global change’) are restructuring biodiversity, globally. Broadly, environmental conditions are expected to become warmer, potentially drier (particularly in arid regions), and more anthropogenically developed in the future, with spatiotemporally complex effects on ecological communities. We used functional traits to inform Chesapeake Bay Watershed fish responses to future climate and land-use scenarios (2030, 2060, and 2090). We modelled the future habitat suitability of focal species representative of key trait axes (substrate, flow, temperature, reproduction, and trophic) and used functional and phylogenetic metrics to assess variable assemblage responses across physiographic regions and habitat sizes (headwaters through large rivers). Our focal species analysis projected future habitat suitability gains for carnivorous species with preferences for warm water, pool habitats, and fine or vegetated substrates. At the assemblage level, models projected decreasing habitat suitability for cold-water, rheophilic, and lithophilic individuals but increasing suitability for carnivores in the future across all regions. Projected responses of functional and phylogenetic diversity and redundancy differed among regions. Lowland regions were projected to become less functionally and phylogenetically diverse and more redundant while upland regions (and smaller habitat sizes) were projected to become more diverse and less redundant. Next, we assessed how this model projected assemblage changes 2005-2030 related to observed time-series trends (1999–2016). Halfway through the initial projecting period (2005–2030), we found observed trends broadly followed modelled patterns of increasing proportions of carnivorous and lithophilic individuals in lowland regions but showed opposing patterns for functional and phylogenetic metrics. Leveraging observed and predicted analyses simultaneously helps elucidate the instances and causes of discrepancies between model predictions and ongoing observed changes. Collectively, results highlight the complexity of global change impacts across broad landscapes that likely relate to differences in assemblages’ intrinsic sensitivities and external exposure to stressors.

Global Change Biology↗

USGS2012

Projections and downscaling of 21st century temperatures, precipitation, radiative fluxes and winds for the southwestern US, with focus on the Lake Tahoe basin

Recent projections of global climate changes in response to increasing greenhouse-gas concentrations in the atmosphere include warming in the Southwestern US and, especially, in the vicinity of Lake Tahoe of from about +3°C to +6°C by end of century and changes in precipitation on the order of 5-10 % increases or (more commonly) decreases, depending on the climate model considered. Along with these basic changes, other climate variables like solar insolation, downwelling (longwave) radiant heat, and winds may change. Together these climate changes may result in changes in the hydrology of the Tahoe basin and potential changes in lake overturning and ecological regimes. Current climate projections, however, are generally spatially too coarse (with grid cells separated by 1 to 2° latitude and longitude) for direct use in assessments of the vulnerabilities of the much smaller Tahoe basin. Thus, daily temperatures, precipitation, winds, and downward radiation fluxes from selected global projections have been downscaled by a statistical method called the constructed-analogues method onto 10 to 12 km grids over the Southwest and especially over Lake Tahoe. Precipitation, solar insolation and winds over the Tahoe basin change only moderately (and with indeterminate signs) in the downscaled projections, whereas temperatures and downward longwave fluxes increase along with imposed increases in global greenhouse-gas concentrations.

Arizona;California;Idaho;Nevada;Oregon;Utah↗

USGS2024

Supporting climate adaptation for rural Mekong River Basin communities in Thailand

Climate change impacts on large river basins, such as the Mekong River Basin (MRB), are complex due to shared governance and interconnected socioeconomic areas, making them highly vulnerable to change. The MRB, spanning six countries including Thailand, is crucial for the food and economic security of > 60 million people. However, in 2021, Thailand was ranked as the 9th highest risk country affected by climate change. To integrate climate adaptation in Thailand's MRB, we examined the effects of climate change on rapidly developing farmer and fisher communities in northeastern Thailand and explored feasible adaptation options. Using an interdisciplinary approach that included literature review, participatory action methods, and the resist-accept-direct (RAD) framework, we found that climate change is projected to increase temperatures, precipitation, extreme events, erosion, and water clarity, while decreasing heavy sediment transport. These changes negatively impact agriculture, fisheries, human health, and tourism. We identified several adaptation strategies across environmental, ecological, and human health categories to accommodate local needs, such as preventing habitat degradation (e.g., from dams and deforestation), providing fish refuge and passage, and supporting technical capacity. Community-driven adaptation planning and implementation are essential for supporting global sustainable development in a changing climate.

Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Ch↗

USGS2007

Remote sensing-based predictors improve distribution models of rare, early successional and broadleaf tree species in Utah

1. Compared to bioclimatic variables, remote sensing predictors are rarely used for predictive species modelling. When used, the predictors represent typically habitat classifications or filters rather than gradual spectral, surface or biophysical properties. Consequently, the full potential of remotely sensed predictors for modelling the spatial distribution of species remains unexplored. Here we analysed the partial contributions of remotely sensed and climatic predictor sets to explain and predict the distribution of 19 tree species in Utah. We also tested how these partial contributions were related to characteristics such as successional types or species traits. 2. We developed two spatial predictor sets of remotely sensed and topo-climatic variables to explain the distribution of tree species. We used variation partitioning techniques applied to generalized linear models to explore the combined and partial predictive powers of the two predictor sets. Non-parametric tests were used to explore the relationships between the partial model contributions of both predictor sets and species characteristics. 3. More than 60% of the variation explained by the models represented contributions by one of the two partial predictor sets alone, with topo-climatic variables outperforming the remotely sensed predictors. However, the partial models derived from only remotely sensed predictors still provided high model accuracies, indicating a significant correlation between climate and remote sensing variables. The overall accuracy of the models was high, but small sample sizes had a strong effect on cross-validated accuracies for rare species. 4. Models of early successional and broadleaf species benefited significantly more from adding remotely sensed predictors than did late seral and needleleaf species. The core-satellite species types differed significantly with respect to overall model accuracies. Models of satellite and urban species, both with low prevalence, benefited more from use of remotely sensed predictors than did the more frequent core species. 5. Synthesis and applications. If carefully prepared, remotely sensed variables are useful additional predictors for the spatial distribution of trees. Major improvements resulted for deciduous, early successional, satellite and rare species. The ability to improve model accuracy for species having markedly different life history strategies is a crucial step for assessing effects of global change. ?? 2007 The Authors.

Journal of Applied Ecology↗