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USGS2026

Resource selection for an endangered flying squirrel, Glaucomys sabrinus coloratus, in a montane sky-island system

Geographically isolated endemic species and their habitats in montane systems face stressors of rapid climate change as well as legacy and contemporary land use change. In the case of endangered species in fragmented terrestrial montane habitats, effectively sky-islands, insight into habitat use and resource selection is vital for effective conservation measures. We created a resource selection function using a long-term dataset of multiple monitoring techniques (live-trapping, radio-telemetry, camera traps, acoustic detectors, and nest boxes) across a wide geographical range for an endangered subspecies, the Carolina northern flying squirrel Glaucomys sabrinus coloratus , in a vulnerable high-elevation sky-island boreal forest ecosystem in the southeastern USA. Using fine-scale habitat and topographic coverage on 8 sky-islands, we employed various models to capture nuanced habitat relationships that can better inform the conservation of remaining subpopulations as well as other endemic species that share their habitat. Our analyses confirmed that red spruce Picea rubens -Fraser fir Abies fraseri was the most significant habitat component for determining Carolina northern flying squirrel presence, but that relationships varied somewhat among sky-islands owing to differences in extent, elevation range, and forest community configurations. Further, we found that solely using nest boxes, as previously reported, to create a resource selection function biased the results, but that nest boxes remain an effective tool for overcoming habitat fragmentation and decreasing exposure to antagonistic species.

North Carolina, Tennessee, Virginia↗

USGS2016

Federal collaboration in science for invasive mammal management in U.S. National Parks and Wildlife Refuges of the Pacific Islands

Some of the most isolated islands in the Pacific Ocean are home to US National Parks and Wildlife Refuges. These islands are known for flora and fauna that occur nowhere else, but also for invasive species and other factors which have resulted in the disproportionate extinction of native species. The control of invasive mammals is the single most expensive natural resource management activity essential for restoring ecological integrity to parks in the Hawaiian Islands, American Samoa, and the islands of Guam and Saipan. Science-based applications supporting management efforts have been shaped by longstanding collaborative federal research programs over the past four decades. Consequently, feral goats (Capra hircus) have been removed from >690 km2 in National Parks, and feral pigs (Sus scrofa) have been removed from >367 km2 of federal lands of Hawai‘i, bringing about the gradual recovery of forest ecosystems. The exclusion of other non-native ungulates and invasive mammals is now being undertaken with more sophisticated control techniques and fences. New fence designs are now capable of excluding feral cats (Felis catus) from large areas to protect endangered native waterfowl and nesting seabirds. Rodenticides which have been tested and registered for hand and aerial broadcast in Hawai‘i have been used to eradicate rats from small offshore islands to protect nesting seabirds and are now being applied to montane environments of larger islands to protect forest birds. Forward-looking infrared radar (FLIR) is also being applied to locate wild ungulates which were more recently introduced to some islands. All invasive mammals have been eradicated from some remote small islands, and it may soon be possible to manage areas on larger islands to be free of invasive mammals at least during seasonally important periods for native species.

Conference Paper↗

USGS2018

Climate change science and modeling

This chapter provides a brief background on climate change science, climate simulation models, and models that project the impacts of changes in climate on tree species and ecosystems. Throughout the chapter, boxes list resources for more information on each topic. A more detailed scientific review of climate change science, trends, and modeling can be found in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report (IPCC 2014), and the Fourth National Climate Assessment (U.S. Global Climate Research Program [USGCRP] 2017).

Delaware, Maryland, New Jersey, New York, Pennsylv↗

USGS2018

Federal lands greenhouse emissions and sequestration in the United States—Estimates for 2005–14

In January 2016, the Secretary of the U.S. Department of the Interior tasked the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) with producing a publicly available and annually updated database of estimated greenhouse gas emissions associated with the extraction and use (predominantly some form of combustion) of fossil fuels from Federal lands. In response, the USGS has produced estimates of the greenhouse gas emissions resulting from the extraction and end-use combustion of fossil fuels produced on Federal lands in the United States, as well as estimates of ecosystem carbon emissions and sequestration on those lands. American Indian and Tribal lands were not included in this analysis. The emissions estimates span a 10-year period (2005–14) and are reported for 28 States and two offshore areas. Nationwide emissions from fossil fuels produced on Federal lands in 2014 were 1,279.0 million metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalent (MMT CO 2 Eq.) for carbon dioxide (CO 2 ), 47.6 MMT CO 2 Eq. for methane (CH 4 ), and 5.5 MMT CO 2 Eq. for nitrous oxide (N 2 O). Compared to 2005, the 2014 totals represent decreases in emissions for all three greenhouse gases (decreases of 6.1 percent for CO 2 , 10.5 percent for CH 4 , and 20.3 percent for N 2 O). Emissions from fossil fuels produced on Federal lands represent, on average, 23.7 percent of national emissions for CO 2 , 7.3 percent for CH 4 , and 1.5 percent for N 2 O over the 10 years included in this estimate. In 2005, Federal lands of the conterminous United States stored 82,289 MMT CO 2 Eq. in terrestrial ecosystems. By 2014, carbon storage, or sequestration, was estimated at 83,600 MMT CO 2 Eq., representing an increase of 1.6 percent, or 1,311 MMT CO 2 Eq. Soils stored most of the ecosystem carbon (63 percent), followed by live vegetation (26 percent) and dead organic matter (11 percent). The rate of net carbon uptake in ecosystems ranged from a sink (sequestration) of 475 million metric tons of carbon dioxide per year (MMT CO 2 Eq./yr) to a source (emission) of 51 MMT CO 2 Eq./yr because of annual variability in climate and weather, rates of land-use and land-cover change, and wildfire frequency, among other factors. At the national level, the USGS estimates that terrestrial ecosystems (forests, grasslands, and shrublands) on Federal lands sequestered an average of 195 MMT CO 2 Eq./yr between 2005 and 2014, offsetting approximately 15 percent of the CO 2 emissions resulting from the extraction of fossil fuels on Federal lands and their end-use combustion. The USGS estimates presented in this report represent a first-of-its-kind accounting for the emissions resulting from fossil fuel extraction on Federal lands and the end-use combustion of those fuels, as well as for the sequestration of carbon in terrestrial ecosystems on Federal lands. The net CO 2 emissions estimate, which is the difference between the emitted and sequestered CO 2 , provides an informative combined result describing the emissions (fossil fuel extraction and end-use combustion) associated with a State’s Federal lands and sequestration on those same lands. The estimates included in this report can provide context for future energy decisions, as well as a basis to track change in the future.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

USGS2026

Building resilience in dryland ecosystems: A climate adaptation strategy menu for pinyon–juniper woodlands

Pinyon–juniper (PJ) woodlands, one of the most extensive mature and old-growth woodland types in the Western United States, provide critical ecological, cultural, and economic benefits but face increasing threats from climate change, altered disturbance regimes, invasive species, and pests. We developed the PJ Woodland Climate Adaptation Management Menu, a decision support tool designed to guide adaptive, climate-informed management of PJ ecosystems, particularly within the Colorado Plateau ecoregion. The menu was created through an iterative, collaborative process involving literature review, integration of strategies from existing adaptation frameworks, and extensive input from scientists, land managers, and community partners during workshops and focus groups. The menu links specific, evidence-based approaches to each of six broad strategies, including soliciting community input, mitigating disturbance, enhancing and maintaining biodiversity, conserving ecotones, timing actions for optimal outcomes, and accepting climate-driven changes when appropriate. It is intended for use with the Adaptation Workbook to help managers connect local goals and climate vulnerabilities to tailored management tactics. Hypothetical scenarios demonstrate the menu’s application to contrasting PJ woodland conditions, from die-off events to old-growth maintenance. Lessons learned during development underscore the value of early stakeholder engagement, cross-sector collaboration, and balancing diverse ecological objectives. This menu offers a flexible, transferable framework to strengthen climate resilience in PJ woodlands and serves as a model that could improve adaptation planning in other dryland forest ecosystems.

Forests↗

USGS1998

Soil, environmental, and watershed measurements in support of carbon cycling studies in northwestern Mississippi

Measurements including soil respiration, soil moisture, soil temperature, and carbon export in suspended sediments from small watersheds were recorded at several field sites in northwestern Mississippi in support of hillslope process studies associated with the U.S. Geological Survey's Mississippi Basin Carbon Project (MBCP). These measurements were made to provide information about carbon cycling in agricultural and forest ecosystems to understand the potential role of erosion and deposition in the sequestration of soil organic carbon in upland soils. The question of whether soil erosion and burial constitutes an important net sink of atmospheric carbon dioxide is one hypothesis that the MBCP is evaluating to better understand carbon cycling and climate change. This report contains discussion of methods used and presents data for the period December 1996 through March 1998. Included in the report are ancillary data provided by the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) ARS National Sedimentation Laboratory and U.S. Forest Service (USFS) Center for Bottomland Hardwoods Research on rainfall, runoff, sediment yield, forest biomass and grain yield. Together with the data collected by the USGS these data permit the construction of carbon budgets and the calibration of models of soil organic matter dynamics and sediment transport and deposition. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has established cooperative agreements with the USDA and USFS to facilitate collaborative research at research sites in northwestern Mississippi.

Mississippi↗

USGS2020

Wildfire risk and hazardous fuel reduction treatments along the US-Mexico border: A review of the science (1985-2019)

The ecosystems along the border between the United States and Mexico are at increasing risk to wildfire due to interactions among climate, land-use, and fuel loads. A wide range of fuel treatments have been implemented to mitigate wildfire and its threats to valued resources, yet we have little information about treatment effectiveness. To fill critical knowledge gaps, we reviewed wildfire risk and fuel treatment studies that were conducted near the US-Mexico border and published in the peer-reviewed literature between 1986 and 2019. The number of studies has grown during this time in warm desert to forest ecosystems on primarily federal lands. The most common study topics included fire effects on native species, the role of invasive species and woody encroachment on wildfire risk, historical fire regimes, and remote sensing and modeling to study wildfire risk across the landscape. A majority of fuel treatment studies focused on prescribed burns, and fuel treatments collectively had mixed effects on mitigating future wildfire risk and threats to ecosystems depending on vegetation and fire characteristics. The diversity of ecosystems and land ownership along the US-Mexico border present unique challenges for understanding and managing wildfire risk, and also create opportunities for collaboration and cross-site studies to promote knowledge across broad environmental gradients.

Arizona, California, New Mexico, Texas↗

USGS2019

Occupancy patterns in a reintroduced fisher population during reestablishment

Monitoring population performance in the years following species reintroductions is key to assessing population restoration success and evaluating assumptions made in planning species restoration programs. From 2008–2010 we translocated 90 fishers ( Pekania pennanti ) from British Columbia, Canada, to Washington's Olympic Peninsula, USA, providing the opportunity to evaluate modeling assumptions used to identify the most suitable reintroduction areas in Washington and enhance understanding of fisher habitat associations in the late‐successional forest ecosystems in the coastal Pacific Northwest. From 2013–2016, we deployed 788 motion‐sensing cameras and hair (DNA)‐snaring devices distributed among 263 24‐km 2 primary sampling units across the Olympic Peninsula. Our objectives were to determine whether occupancy patterns of the reestablishing population supported assumptions of the initial habitat assessment models, whether the population had expanded or shifted in distribution since the initial reintroductions, compare physical habitat attributes among land‐management designations, and determine whether the founding fishers had successfully reproduced. We predicted that site occupancy by fishers would be associated with landscapes characterized by high proportional coverage of dense forest canopies and medium‐sized and large trees, a diversity of stand structural classes, and area near the administrative boundary separating wilderness from more intensively managed forest lands. We detected fishers across designated wilderness, federal lands outside of wilderness, and other land designations in proportion to land availability on the Peninsula. We found negligible support for predictions that occupancy by fishers was associated with percent forest cover, tree‐size class, or structural class diversity. Rather, occupancy was strongly associated with lands near the wilderness boundary on both sides. We speculate that the boundary between wilderness and more intensively managed forest lands provided fishers with the most suitable prey in proximity to contiguous expanses of low‐ to mid‐elevation late‐successional forests that provided optimal resting, denning, and security values. Occupancy patterns shifted toward the west and south along a precipitation gradient during the study, indicating that population distribution had not yet stabilized 5–8 years following translocation. Genetic results indicated that ≥2 generations of fishers have been produced on the Peninsula. Annual occupancy rates across the Peninsula (0.08–0.24) were lower than in other previously studied and established fisher populations, indicating that not all habitat was fully occupied or that initial estimates of the extent of habitat was overestimated. The strong selection fishers exhibited for wilderness edge and weak selection against extensive forested wilderness areas suggested that habitat managers should strive for maintaining a suitable interspersion of required forest structures and biotic habitat components, such as prey resource availability.

Journal of Wildlife Management↗

USGS2007

Species richness and soil properties in Pinus ponderosa forests: A structural equation modeling analysis

Question: How are the effects of mineral soil properties on understory plant species richness propagated through a network of processes involving the forest overstory, soil organic matter, soil nitrogen, and understory plant abundance? Location: North-central Arizona, USA. Methods: We sampled 75 0.05-ha plots across a broad soil gradient in a Pinus ponderosa (ponderosa pine) forest ecosystem. We evaluated multivariate models of plant species richness using structural equation modeling. Results: Richness was highest at intermediate levels of understory plant cover, suggesting that both colonization success and competitive exclusion can limit richness in this system. We did not detect a reciprocal positive effect of richness on plant cover. Richness was strongly related to soil nitrogen in the model, with evidence for both a direct negative effect and an indirect non-linear relationship mediated through understory plant cover. Soil organic matter appeared to have a positive influence on understory richness that was independent of soil nitrogen. Richness was lowest where the forest overstory was densest, which can be explained through indirect effects on soil organic matter, soil nitrogen and understory cover. Finally, model results suggest a variety of direct and indirect processes whereby mineral soil properties can influence richness. Conclusions: Understory plant species richness and plant cover in P. ponderosa forests appear to be significantly influenced by soil organic matter and nitrogen, which are, in turn, related to overstory density and composition and mineral soil properties. Thus, soil properties can impose direct and indirect constraints on local species diversity in ponderosa pine forests. ?? IAVS; Opulus Press.

Journal of Vegetation Science↗

USGS2014

Disentangling the effects of climate and landscape change on bird population trends in the western U.S. and Canada

Changes in climate are often assumed result in changes to species’ ranges, with potential impacts on natural system functioning and ecosystem services. ‘Climate envelope models’, which rely on correlations between climate and species distributions, have been used to predict the future of biodiversity under these assumptions. However, other factors including land-cover, dispersal ability and interspecific competition and facilitation may play an important role in driving species distributions and population trends either alone or in combination with climate. In an ongoing project, we used long-term data on bird distributions and abundance to develop climate envelope and land-use models for 161 species in order to provide a multi-species test of the degree to which climate envelope versus land-use models are useful in predicting species distributions and population trends of birds in forest ecosystems of the western U.S. and Canada. Our results suggest that models describing associations between climatic variables and abundance patterns can be used for some species to predict changes through time, and that changes in climate have already driven shifts in the geographic patterns of abundance of bird populations in western North America. For other species, models using land-use variables including raw remote-sensing variables may provide the best predictions for abundance change. The results of this research showing the reliability of models across multiple species will aid managers in understanding which species are most vulnerable to changes from climate, land-use change and their interaction.

Final Report↗

USGS2018

Long-term effects of fire and harvest on carbon stocks of boreal forests in northeastern China

Context Boreal forests represent about one third of forest area and one third of forest carbon stocks on the Earth. Carbon stocks of boreal forests are sensitive to climate change, natural disturbances, and human activities. Aims The objectives of this study were to evaluate the effects of fire, harvest, and their spatial interactions on boreal forest carbon stocks of northeastern China. Methods We used a coupled forest landscape model (LANDIS PRO) and a forest ecosystem model (LINKAGES) framework to simulate the landscape-level effects of fire, harvest, and their spatial interactions over 150 years. Results Our simulation suggested that aboveground carbon and soil organic carbon are significantly reduced by fire and harvest over the whole simulation period. The long-term effects of fire and harvest on carbon stocks were greater than the short-term effects. The combined effects of fire and harvest on carbon stocks are less than the sum of the separate effects of fire and harvest. The response of carbon stocks was impacted by the spatial variability of fire and harvest regimes. Conclusion These results emphasize that the spatial interactions of fire and harvest play an important role in regulating boreal forest carbon stocks.

Annals of Forest Science↗

USGS2017

Land use history and population dynamics of free-standing figs in a maturing forest

Figs ( Ficus sp.) are often considered as keystone resources which strongly influence tropical forest ecosystems. We used long-term tree-census data to track the population dynamics of two abundant free-standing fig species, Ficus insipida and F . yoponensis , on Barro Colorado Island (BCI), a 15.6-km 2 island in Lake Gatún, Panama. Vegetation cover on BCI consists of a mosaic of old growth (>400 years) and maturing (about 90–150 year old) secondary rainforest. Locations and conditions of fig trees have been mapped and monitored on BCI for more than 35 years (1973–2011), with a focus on the Lutz Catchment area (25 ha). The original distribution of the fig trees shortly after the construction of the Panama Canal was derived from an aerial photograph from 1927 and was compared with previous land use and forest status. The distribution of both fig species (~850 trees) is restricted to secondary forest. Of the original 119 trees observed in Lutz Catchment in 1973, >70% of F . insipida and >90% of F . yoponensis had died by 2011. Observations in other areas on BCI support the trend of declining free-standing figs. We interpret the decline of these figs on BCI as a natural process within a maturing tropical lowland forest. Senescence of the fig trees appears to have been accelerated by severe droughts such as the strong El Niño event in the year 1982/83. Because figs form such an important food resource for frugivores, this shift in resource availability is likely to have cascading effects on frugivore populations.

PLoS ONE↗

USGS2016

Monitoring plant tissue nitrogen isotopes to assess nearshore inputs of nitrogen to Lake Crescent, Olympic National Park, Washington

Mats of filamentous-periphytic algae present in some nearshore areas of Lake Crescent, Olympic National Park, Washington, may indicate early stages of eutrophication from nutrient enrichment of an otherwise highly oligotrophic lake. Natural abundance ratios of stable isotopes of nitrogen (δ 15 N) measured in plant tissue growing in nearshore areas of the lake indicate that the major source of nitrogen used by these primary producing plants is derived mainly from atmospherically fixed nitrogen in an undeveloped forested ecosystem. Exceptions to this pattern occurred in the Barnes Point area where elevated δ 15 N ratios indicate that effluent from septic systems also contribute nitrogen to filamentous-periphytic algae growing in the littoral zone of that area. Near the Lyre River outlet of Lake Crescent, the δ 15 N of filamentous-periphytic algae growing in close proximity to the spawning areas of a unique species of trout show little evidence of elevated δ 15 N indicating that nitrogen from on-site septic systems is not a substantial source of nitrogen for these plants. The δ 15 N data corroborate estimates that nitrogen input to Lake Crescent from septic sources is comparatively small relative to input from motor vehicle exhaust and vegetative sources in undeveloped forests, including litterfall, pollen, and symbiotic nitrogen fixation. The seasonal timing of blooms of filamentous-periphytic algal near the lake shoreline is also consistent with nitrogen exported from stands of red alder trees ( Alnus rubra ). Isotope biomonitoring of filamentous-periphytic algae may be an effective approach to monitoring the littoral zone for nutrient input to Lake Crescent from septic sources.

Washington↗

USGS2022

Prescribed fire and other fuel-reduction treatments alter ground spider assemblages in a Southern Appalachian hardwood forest

Prescribed burns and understory thinnings are forest management practices aimed at reducing fuel loads to lessen wildfire threat in the Southern Appalachians, USA. Spiders play a critical role in forest ecosystems by controlling insect populations and providing an important food source for vertebrates. We used pitfall and colored pan traps to investigate how abundance, species richness, and diversity of spiders differed among three fuel reduction treatments administered repeatedly over a 15-year period and untreated controls. Additionally, we examined how spiders responded to one round (before and after) of fuel reduction treatments. We established treatments within the 15-year period as follows: mechanical understory removal (twice; M), prescribed burning (four times; B), mechanical understory removal followed one year later by high-severity prescribed burns and three subsequent burns (MB), and untreated controls (C). Our study period (2014–2016) occurred after multiple prescribed burns and two rounds of mechanical understory removal had occurred. Salticidae and Lycosidae were the two most commonly collected spider families in Southern Appalachian hardwood forests. Generally, we found increased spider abundances within all fuel-reduction treatments compared to controls. Individual spider families and species showed variable responses to treatments, but abundance of several spider families was greater in one or more fuel-reduction treatments than in controls. Additionally, abundance of several spider families and hunting/web building guilds (webs built for hunting purposes or defense) exhibited yearly differences to the last round of fuel-reduction treatments. Overall, our results suggest that changes in the overstory and understory of a forest are important drivers of regional spider abundance and assemblages, and forest management practices that modify forest structure can dramatically alter spider abundance and richness, usually in a positive manner.

North Carolina↗

USGS2024

Naturalized species drive functional trait shifts in plant communities

Despite decades of research documenting the consequences of naturalized and invasive plant species on ecosystem functions, our understanding of the functional underpinnings of these changes remains rudimentary. This is partially due to ineffective scaling of trait differences between native and naturalized species to whole plant communities. Working with data from over 75,000 plots and over 5,500 species from across the United States, we show that changes in the functional composition of communities associated with increasing abundance of naturalized species mirror the differences in traits between native and naturalized plants. We find that communities with greater abundance of naturalized species are more resource acquisitive aboveground and belowground, shorter, more shallowly rooted, and increasingly aligned with an independent strategy for belowground resource acquisition via thin fine roots with high specific root length. We observe shifts toward herbaceous-dominated communities but shifts within both woody and herbaceous functional groups follow community-level patterns for most traits. Patterns are remarkably similar across desert, grassland, and forest ecosystems. Our results demonstrate that the establishment and spread of naturalized species, likely in combination with underlying environmental shifts, leads to predictable and consistent changes in community-level traits that can alter ecosystem functions.

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences↗

USGS2021

Resilience of terrestrial and aquatic fauna to historical and future wildfire regimes in western North America

Wildfires in many western North American forests are becoming more frequent, larger, and severe, with changed seasonal patterns. In response, coniferous forest ecosystems will transition toward dominance by fire-adapted hardwoods, shrubs, meadows, and grasslands, which may benefit some faunal communities, but not others. We describe factors that limit and promote faunal resilience to shifting wildfire regimes for terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems. We highlight the potential value of interspersed nonforest patches to terrestrial wildlife. Similarly, we review watershed thresholds and factors that control the resilience of aquatic ecosystems to wildfire, mediated by thermal changes and chemical, debris, and sediment loadings. We present a 2-dimensional life history framework to describe temporal and spatial life history traits that species use to resist wildfire effects or to recover after wildfire disturbance at a metapopulation scale. The role of fire refuge is explored for metapopulations of species. In aquatic systems, recovery of assemblages postfire may be faster for smaller fires where unburned tributary basins or instream structures provide refuge from debris and sediment flows. We envision that more-frequent, lower-severity fires will favor opportunistic species and that less-frequent high-severity fires will favor better competitors. Along the spatial dimension, we hypothesize that fire regimes that are predictable and generate burned patches in close proximity to refuge will favor species that move to refuges and later recolonize, whereas fire regimes that tend to generate less-severely burned patches may favor species that shelter in place. Looking beyond the trees to forest fauna, we consider mitigation options to enhance resilience and buy time for species facing a no-analog future.

Ecology and Evolution↗

USGS2022

Adaptation strategies and approaches for managing fire in a changing climate

As the effects of climate change accumulate and intensify, resource managers juggle existing goals and new mandates to operationalize adaptation. Fire managers contend with the direct effects of climate change on resources in addition to climate-induced disruptions to fire regimes and subsequent ecosystem effects. In systems stressed by warming and drying, increased fire activity amplifies the pace of change and scale of severe disturbance events, heightening the urgency for management action. Fire managers are asked to integrate information on climate impacts with their professional expertise to determine how to achieve management objectives in a changing climate with altered fire regimes. This is a difficult task, and managers need support as they incorporate climate adaptation into planning and operations. We present a list of adaptation strategies and approaches specific to fire and climate based on co-produced knowledge from a science–management partnership and pilot-tested in a two-day workshop with natural resource managers and regional stakeholders. This “menu” is a flexible and useful tool for fire managers who need to connect the dots between fire ecology, climate science, adaptation intent, and management implementation. It was created and tested as part of an adaptation framework used widely across the United States and should be applicable and useful in many fire-prone forest ecosystems.

Climate↗

USGS1998

Effects of landcover, water redistribution, and temperature on ecosystem processes in the South Plate Basin

Over one-third of the land area in the South Platte Basin of Colorado, Nebraska, and Wyoming, has been converted to croplands. Irrigated cropland now comprises 8% of the basin, while dry croplands make up 31%. We used the RHESSys model to compare the changes in plant productivity and vegetation-related hydrological processes that occurred as a result of either land cover alteration or directional temperature changes (−2°C, +4°C). Land cover change exerted more control over annual plant productivity and water fluxes for converted grasslands, while the effect of temperature changes on productivity and water fluxes was stronger in the mountain vegetation. Throughout the basin, land cover change increased the annual loss of water to the atmosphere by 114 mm via evaporation and transpiration, an increase of 37%. Both irrigated and nonirrigated grains became active earlier in the year than shortgrass steppe, leading to a seasonal shift in water losses to the atmosphere. Basin-wide photosynthesis increased by 80% due to grain production. In contrast, a 4°C warming scenario caused annual transpiration to increase by only 3% and annual evaporation to increase by 28%, for a total increase of 71 mm. Warming decreased basin-wide photosynthesis by 16%. There is a large elevational range from east to west in the South Platte Basin, which encompasses the western edge of the Great Plains and the eastern front of the Rocky Mountains. This elevational gain is accompanied by great changes in topographic complexity, vegetation type, and climate. Shortgrass steppe and crops found at elevations between 850 and 1800 m give way to coniferous forests and tundra between 1800 and 4000 m. Climate is increasingly dominated by winter snow precipitation with increasing elevation, and the timing of snowmelt influences tundra and forest ecosystem productivity, soil moisture, and downstream discharge. Mean annual precipitation of <500 mm on the plains below 1800 m is far less than potential evapotranspiration of 1000–1500 mm and is insufficient for optimum plant productivity. The changes in water flux and photosynthesis from conversion of steppe to cropland are the result of redistribution of snowmelt water from the mountains and groundwater pumping through irrigation projects.

Ecological Applications↗