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At least 199 records · Page 11Linked to original sources
USGS2019

Using remote sensing to quantify ecosystem site potential community structure and deviation in the Great Basin, United States

The semi-arid Great Basin region in the Northwest U.S. is impacted by a suite of change agents including fire, grazing, and climate variability to which native vegetation can have low resilience and resistance. Assessing ecosystem condition in relation to these change agents is difficult due to a lack of a consistent and objective Site Potential (SP) information of the conditions biophysically possible at each site. Our objectives were to assess and quantify patterns in ecosystem condition, based on actual fractional component cover and a SP map and to evaluate drivers of change. We used long-term 90th percentile Landsat NDVI(Normalized Difference Vegetation Index) and biophysical variables to produce a map of SP. Ecosystem condition was assessed using two methods, first we integrated fractional components into an index which was regressed against SP. Regression confidence intervals were used to segment the study area into normal, over-, and under-performing relative to SP. Next, the relationships between SP and fractional component cover produced SP expected component cover, from which we mapped the actual cover deviation. Much of the study area is within the range of conditions expected by the SP model, but degraded conditions are more common than those above SP expectations. We found that shrub cover deviation is more positive at higher elevation, while herbaceous cover deviation has the opposite pattern, supporting the hypothesis that more resistant and resilient sites are less likely to change from the shrub dominated legacy. Another key finding was that regions with significant annual herbaceous invasions tend to have lower than expected bare ground and shrub cover.

Great Basin↗
USGS2019

Resilience of benthic macroinvertebrates to extreme floods in a Catskill Mountain river, New York, USA: Implications for water quality monitoring and assessment

Changes in the timing, magnitude, frequency, and duration of extreme hydrologic events are becoming apparent and could disrupt species assemblages and stream ecosystems across the Northeastern United States. Between August 28 and 29 of 2011, an average of 31 cm of rain from Tropical Storm Irene fell across Eastern New York State in less than 24 h and caused historic flooding in numerous streams of the Catskill Mountain Region. Peak discharges exceeded the 0.01 annual exceedance probability (> 100 year flood) in many Catskill Mountain streams. Approximately one week later, the remnants of Tropical Storm Lee deposited another 19 cm of rain onto saturated soils and caused additional flooding. Data from annual benthic macroinvertebrate surveys completed at 5 sites in the Upper Esopus Creek, a premier trout stream in the region, during August 2009–2011 (before the floods) were compared to data collected from the same sites in September 2011, November 2011, March 2012 and August 2012 (after the floods). The impact, rate of recovery and the factors which might affect the resilience of benthic macroinvertebrate communities were evaluated. The results of biological water quality assessment metrics immediately after the floods resembled those of highly polluted waters, yet severe floods were the only disturbance. Prior to the floods, standard biological assessment metrics showed that communities were not impacted and water quality was pristine. A large decrease in macroinvertebrate density was evident in the September 2011 surveys following the floods and bioassessment metrics reflected highly degraded water quality conditions. Most community metrics rebounded in 3–7 months (November 2011 and March 2012), and full recovery was evident in 12 months (August 2012) which suggests that macroinvertebrate assemblages are relatively resilient to the effects of extreme floods in these low-order streams. Therefore, macroinvertebrate samples collected from a flood-impacted stream before full recovery occurs might reflect loss of diversity and abundance from the flood disturbance and incorrectly attribute the impact to impaired water quality. The strong short-term impacts and the relatively rapid recovery of macroinvertebrate communities following catastrophic floods have important ramifications for routine bioassessment programs considering changing hydrologic regimes in streams across the Northeast and elsewhere.

New York↗
USGS2019

Statistical power of dynamic occupancy models to identify temporal change: Informing the North American Bat Monitoring Program

Dynamic occupancy models provide a flexible framework for estimating and mapping species occupancy patterns over space and time for large-scale monitoring programs (e.g., the North American Bat Monitoring Program (NABat), the Amphibian Research and Monitoring Initiative). Challenges for designing surveys using the dynamic occupancy modeling framework include defining appropriate derived trend parameters, and providing usable tools for researchers to conduct project-specific sample size investigations. We present a simulation-based power analysis framework for dynamic occupancy models that allows for the incorporation of the underlying environmental space (i.e., as covariates) within a specific study region to inform sample size estimation. We investigate two definitions of temporal trend: (1) a gradual, sustained (linear or nonlinear) change over a period of many years, and (2) an abrupt increase or decrease between two time periods. We draw upon pilot data collected following NABat protocols to inform assumed data generating values in a demonstration of our approach. Due to the complicated parameter structure of dynamic occupancy models, we emphasize the importance of visualizing simulated changes over time based on different parameter settings prior to conducting a power analysis. Our simulations revealed that the linearity of short-term trends (five years in our investigation) conferred higher power with lower sample size than longer trends where occupancy probabilities approached zero (ten years in our investigation). We provide an example of how to use our tools to conduct customized investigations using questions posed by NABat, and in doing so, we shed light on general guidelines that can be applied to programs monitoring species occupancy for other taxa. Importantly, we created an R package to execute our approach for informing program-, species-, and study-specific investigations aimed at identifying changes in species occupancy.

Ecological Indicators↗
USGS2020

Assessment of multi-stressors on compositional turnover of diatom, invertebrate and fish assemblages along an urban gradient in Pacific Northwest streams (USA)

This study is part of the regional stream-quality assessment (RSQA) conducted by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) National Water Quality Assessment (NAWQA) project. The purpose of this study is to examine small streams along land-use and stressor gradients at the regional scale and to evaluate the relative importance of instream stressors on diatom, macroinvertebrate, and fish assemblages. In 2015, the RSQA project assessed stream quality in 82 wadeable streams that were selected along an urban land-use gradient in the Pacific Northwest Region (PNW) of the United States. This study evaluates the effects of four major categories of measured instream stressors – flow (i.e. alteration), water quality, habitat, and contaminants (in water and sediment) – on stream biota. We used gradient forest (GF) models to evaluate taxon specific responses to the various stressors for the three biotic assemblages. Results for diatom, invertebrate and fish assemblages showed that several environmental variables including substrate size, dissolved oxygen, and two or more different contaminants were selected in each of the GF models. In general, all three assemblages were negatively associated with any contaminant measures above zero, except the more tolerant taxa in each assemblage, which responded positively to contaminants. Total nitrogen (TN) and total phosphorus (TP) were important in both the diatom and invertebrate GF models but not in the fish models, which were related to temperature and stream flow. TP and TN were the top two variables for diatom GF models and various taxa responded at a range of nutrient concentrations; however, some taxa responded at low concentrations, for example around 0.02 for TP and 0.5 mg/L for TN. In general, the three biotic assemblages responded to multiple stressors following general patterns of known sensitive versus tolerant taxa for each of the biotic groups studied, yet the GF models allow us to explore taxon specific responses. For example, most of the sensitive Ephemeroptera, Plecoptera, Trichoptera invertebrate taxa (EPT) responded negatively when any contaminant increased above zero; yet some taxa such as the tolerant Trichoptera Cheumatopsyche responded positively to contaminants and many of the other stressors. The findings of this study demonstrate the value of using multiple assemblages to monitoring stressor gradients associated with urban stream systems and the importance of evaluating the responses of individual taxa to stressors.

Washington, Oregon↗
USGS2020

Acoustic space occupancy: Combining ecoacoustics and lidar to model biodiversity variation and detection bias across heterogeneous landscapes

There is global interest in quantifying changing biodiversity in human-modified landscapes. Ecoacoustics may offer a promising pathway for supporting multi-taxa monitoring, but its scalability has been hampered by the sonic complexity of biodiverse ecosystems and the imperfect detectability of animal-generated sounds. The acoustic signature of a habitat, or soundscape, contains information about multiple taxa and may circumvent species identification, but robust statistical technology for characterizing community-level attributes is lacking. Here, we present the Acoustic Space Occupancy Model, a flexible hierarchical framework designed to account for detection artifacts from acoustic surveys in order to model biologically relevant variation in acoustic space use among community assemblages. We illustrate its utility in a biologically and structurally diverse Amazon frontier forest landscape, a valuable test case for modeling biodiversity variation and acoustic attenuation from vegetation density. We use complementary airborne lidar data to capture aspects of 3D forest structure hypothesized to influence community composition and acoustic signal detection. Our novel analytic framework permitted us to model both the assembly and detectability of soundscapes using lidar-derived estimates of forest structure. Our empirical predictions were consistent with physical models of frequency-dependent attenuation, and we estimated that the probability of observing animal activity in the frequency channel most vulnerable to acoustic attenuation varied by over 60%, depending on vegetation density. There were also large differences in the biotic use of acoustic space predicted for intact and degraded forest habitats, with notable differences in the soundscape channels predominantly occupied by insects . This study advances the utility of ecoacoustics by providing a robust modeling framework for addressing detection bias from remote audio surveys while preserving the rich dimensionality of soundscape data, which may be critical for inferring biological patterns pertinent to multiple taxonomic groups in the tropics. Our methodology paves the way for greater integration of remotely sensed observations with high-throughput biodiversity data to help bring routine, multi-taxa monitoring to scale in dynamic and diverse landscapes.

Mato Grosso↗
USGS2020

Climate-induced abrupt shifts in structural states trigger delayed transitions in functional states

Theoretical models suggest that ecosystems can be found in one of several possible alternative stable states, and a shift in structural stable state (SSS) can trigger a change in functional stable state (FSS). But we still lack the empirical evidence to confirm these states and transitions, and to inform the rates of change. Here, a 30-yr dataset from long-term ungrazed and grazed temperate grasslands was analyzed to determine whether abrupt transitions of SSS and FSS can occur. We found that the long-term ungrazed grassland experienced abrupt transitions in the dominant plant functional type (shift in SSS) that was followed by a transition between carbon sink and source 1–2 year later (shift in FSS). A directional shift in precipitation and temperature accounted for 40% of the variation in the SSS transition, while the SSS transition explained 20% of the variation in the FSS transition. In contrast, no abrupt transitions for SSS and FSS were observed in the long-term moderately grazed grassland. These findings provide important insight into the interacting effects of climate change and livestock grazing on ecosystem transitions in temperate grasslands. Moderate utilization of production in ecosystems that have co-evolved with herbivores can offset structural and functional transitions induced by climate change.

Xilin River watershed↗
USGS2020

Estimating nitrogen removal services of eastern oyster (Crassostrea virginica) in Mobile Bay, Alabama

Eastern oysters have been acknowledged for their important contribution to human well-being by providing goods and services including nitrogen removal from water bodies. In this study, we integrated daily environmental data (2008–2016) and filtration rate model parameter uncertainty to estimate nitrogen removal from denitrification and nitrogen burial services provided by the current extent of oyster ( Crassostrea virginica ) reefs in Mobile Bay, Alabama. Oyster landing data (2008–2016) in the Bay were also used to estimate nitrogen removal through oyster harvest. A replacement cost method using an engineering solution from wastewater treatment plants was implemented to quantify the economic benefit of the nitrogen removal. The estimated total nitrogen removal services provided by oyster reefs in Mobile Bay was 34,911 ± 5,032 kg N yr −1 (mean ± 1sd), in which 22,095 ± 3,305 kg N yr −1 from denitrification, 11,047 ± 1,652 kg N yr −1 from burial of nitrogen into sediments and 1,769 ± 876 kg N yr −1 by oyster harvest. The mean economic benefit was $76,455 ± 11,020 yr −1 which was estimated as $73.2 ± 11.5 ha −1 yr −1 . This method could be used for any time period to estimate the nitrogen removal service in Mobile Bay. With proper modification of model parameters, this method could also be used elsewhere to estimate nitrogen removal services provided by oysters.

Alabama↗
USGS2021

Impacts of small dams on stream temperature

Small, surface-release dams are ubiquitous features of the landscape that typically slow water flow and decrease canopy cover through impounded reaches, potentially increasing stream temperatures. However, reported effects of small dams on water temperature are variable, likely due to differences in landscape and dam characteristics. To quantify the range of thermal effects of small dams, we deployed continuous temperature loggers for one to four years at 30 dam sites across a range of environmental settings throughout Massachusetts (USA). Most dams (67%) warmed downstream waters, with August mean temperatures 0.20–5.25 °C higher than upstream. Downstream temperatures cooled with increased distance from the dam at 68% of sites, such that the warmest temperatures were observed closest to the dam. Where there was both a significant downstream warming effect and cooling pattern (seven sites), elevated temperatures persisted for an average of 1.31 km downstream of the dam. Dams with impoundments that caused the greatest relative widening of the stream channel and those on coldwater streams had the most warming, while streams with short dams in forested watersheds cooled most quickly downstream of the dam. Flow had a homogenizing effect on water temperatures at over half of the sites, whereby summer thermal impacts were more pronounced (e.g., more warming, faster cooling rates) under periods of lower flows. Downstream warming may reduce habitat for coldwater fishes and invertebrates, particularly where dams shift coldwater/coolwater habitat to warmwater. These results suggest that dam removal may mitigate elevated stream temperatures and increase ecosystem resilience in the face of a changing climate via restoration of critical coldwater habitats.

Massachusetts↗
USGS2021

Seasonal periphyton response to low-level nutrient exposure in a least disturbed mountain stream, the Buffalo River, Arkansas

Like most streams located in the Ozark Plateaus, the Buffalo River in Arkansas generally has excellent water quality. Water-quality conditions in Big Creek, however, a major tributary of the middle Buffalo River, have been less favorable than that of other Buffalo River tributaries. Concerns regarding the influence of water quality in Big Creek on the Buffalo River magnified in 2013 when a large confined animal feeding operation (CAFO) began operating in the watershed. In response to these concerns, the U.S. Geological Survey compared monthly nutrient concentrations and seasonal periphyton assemblage metrics of a site on Big Creek downstream of the CAFO, two Buffalo River control sites upstream of the confluence with Big Creek, and three Buffalo River test sites downstream of the confluence with Big Creek. In addition to identifying potential nutrient patterns and periphyton responses along a low-level nutrient exposure gradient, the study determined how nutrient contributions from Big Creek (and the CAFO) are affecting ecological conditions and consequent ecosystem services in the Buffalo River. Nutrient and periphyton data exhibited more temporal than spatial variability. Nutrient concentrations were generally highest of all sites at the Big Creek site. Concentrations at the five sites on the Buffalo River were typically low (near laboratory reporting limits), and concentrations at the three test sites rarely exceeded those of the two control sites. An index developed with three ecologically relevant periphyton metrics (oligotrophic taxa and Homoeothrix percent relative abundance and mesotrophic diatoms percent taxa richness) suggested that nutrient uptake at sites downstream of the Big Creek-Buffalo River confluence resulted in subtle shifts in downstream periphyton assemblages. The periphyton index of biological integrity at control sites was slightly and generally more favorable compared to test sites. Even so, when periphyton data were considered in conjunction with both hydrology and water-quality data, the negative consequences of antecedent high flows and associated scouring exceeded the potential positive effects that low-level nutrients had on algal productivity. These findings emphasize the importance of comparing biological and chemical data across extended temporal scales, particularly when working with low-level nutrient gradients.

Arkansas↗
USGS2021

Post-white-nose syndrome passive acoustic sampling effort for determining bat species occupancy within the mid-Atlantic region

We assessed the sampling effort requirements for detecting the presence of extant bat species following the impact of white-nose syndrome in the mid-Atlantic region of the United States. We acoustically sampled 27,796 nights across 846 sites between 15 May and 15 August 2016–2018 within the District of Columbia, Maryland, Pennsylvania, Virginia, and West Virginia. We developed simulations to determine the number of sites required to document bat species when each site was sampled different numbers of nights. We examined these simulations with respect to land cover, physiographic region, and time period. We generally found that sampling a greater number of sample sites within a survey area increased detection more than increasing the number of nights at individual sampling sites. The sampling effort required to detect a given bat species varied by species, as well as land-cover type and physiographic region. Our results suggest that land managers and researchers should use caution in using protocols developed with other objectives, e.g., the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service endangered and threatened bat species and the North American Bat monitoring programs’ methods are designed relative to their specific needs. Unfortunately, neither protocol may be adequate for accurately detecting bat communities within all mid-Atlantic areas.

Maryland, Pennsylvania, Virginia, West Virginia↗
USGS2021

Assessment of sea lamprey (Petromyzon marinus) diet using DNA metabarcoding of feces

Sea lamprey ( Petromyzon marinus ) are invasive in the Laurentian Great Lakes, parasitize large-bodied fishes, and therefore are the focus of an international control program. However, damage caused by sea lamprey to modern day fish stocks remains uncertain because diet analysis of juvenile sea lamprey has been challenging; they feed on blood and are difficult to randomly sample in the lakes. Here, both challenges were addressed by showing that DNA metabarcoding of fecal material can be used to identify the diet of actively feeding juvenile sea lamprey, and can also be used to determine what non-feeding adult sea lamprey captured in streams fed on while parasitizing fish. Fecal samples from juvenile sea lamprey that were feeding on lake trout in northern Lake Huron overwhelmingly contained lake trout ( Salvelinus namaycush ) DNA (90%), while smaller percentages contained lake whitefish ( Coregonus clupeaformis ; 5%) and longnose sucker ( Catostomus catostomus ; 5%) DNA. Fecal samples from adult sea lamprey captured from a tributary to northern Lake Huron overwhelmingly contained longnose and white sucker DNA ( Catostomus spp.; 80%), while a smaller percentage contained lake trout DNA (10%). Diet composition of adult sea lamprey sampled in the tributary (Black Mallard Creek) was more diverse than juvenile diet composition. DNA metabarcoding suggests that Catostomus spp. may be an important host fish in northern Lake Huron for sea lamprey prior to spawning. Future research could investigate how diet varies across years and lakes and the prevalence and sources of DNA contamination. Application of DNA metabarcoding for diet assessment may be practical for identifying populations of invasive sea lamprey that feed on highly valued fishes and help guide restoration of lampreys worldwide.

Michigan↗
USGS2021

Long-term multidecadal data from a prairie-pothole wetland complex reveal controls on aquatic-macroinvertebrate communities

Interactions between climate and hydrogeologic settings contribute to the hydrologic and chemical variability among depressional wetlands, which influences their aquatic communities. These interactions and resulting variability have led to inconsistent results in terms of identifying reliable predictors of aquatic-macroinvertebrate community composition for depressional wetlands. This is especially true in the Prairie Pothole Region of North America where, in addition to pronounced climate variability, studies are often confounded by fish introductions. We used environmental monitoring data collected over a 24-year period from a complex of sixteen depressional wetlands and structural equation modeling techniques that incorporated theoretical and empirical relationships outlined in the Wetland Continuum to identify key environmental (climate and hydrogeologic setting) and biotic (competition and predation) drivers of aquatic-macroinvertebrate community composition for prairie-pothole wetlands. Uplands in the study area were primarily native prairie, thus, embedded wetlands were impacted minimally by agricultural influences. Additionally, study wetlands were predominately fishless. In the absence of the overwhelming influence of fishes, major drivers influencing aquatic-macroinvertebrate communities were revealed through the use of data spanning multidecadal-long climate cycles. We found variables related to the placement of wetlands along axes of the Wetland Continuum, e.g., hydrogeologic setting (relative wetland elevation) and hydroclimatic setting (proportion of wetland ponded), to be influential drivers of within-wetland habitat characteristics, such as the proportion of open-water area, which in turn was the strongest predictor of macroinvertebrate community composition. In contrast, predatory invertebrate and salamander abundance and non-predatory invertebrate biomass (i.e., predation and competition) were found to have minimal influence on community composition.

North Dakota↗
USGS2021

Comparisons among three diet analyses demonstrate multiple patterns in the estimated adult diet of a freshwater piscivore, Salvelinus namaycush

Understanding trophic interactions is critical for successful resource management. However, studying diet patterns (e.g., spatial and seasonal changes) can require extensive effort. Using individual analyses to interpret patterns may be further complicated by assumptions and limitations of the analytical approach. We investigated and compared predicted adult lake trout (Salvelinus namaycush) diet composition and patterns using stomach content analysis (SCA), fatty acid analysis (FAS), and stable isotope analysis (SIA) individually and simultaneously. The three analyses were conducted for fall-captured fish in Lake Ontario and provided different diet composition estimates; SCA suggested alewife (Alosa pseudoharengus) was dominant by frequency and mass, while FAA and SIA suggested rainbow smelt (Osmerus mordax) contributed the most based on similarity among fatty acid signatures and two-stable isotope (carbon and nitrogen) mixing models, respectively. We hypothesize the disagreement among diet estimates is a result of a seasonal shift in diet variably expressed due to differing extent of time reflected by the diet metric: hours to days for SCA, weeks to months for FAA and several months for SIA. Despite variability in diet composition estimates among methods, similar patterns in lake trout diet were observed among the three diet analyses; the contribution of alewife in lake trout diet was greater for larger individuals and for males compared to females, particularly in the east and northeast regions of the lake where alewife density was relatively low. Thus, the complementary results from the three analyses suggest that length, location, sex, and season all influence lake trout diet. Individually, analyses often failed to identify these patterns in lake trout diet with significance, and some of the patterns have not been observed in previous studies of lake trout diet in Lake Ontario. The thorough description of lake trout diet obtained from a single sampling season demonstrates how simultaneous use of multiple diet analyses may allow investigation of spatial and seasonal diet composition and with reduced sampling effort.

Lake Ontario↗
USGS2021

Trade-offs in initial and long-term handling efficiency of PIT-tag and photographic identification methods

Individual identification is required for long-term investigations that examine population-level changes in survival or abundance, and mechanisms associated with these changes in wild populations. Such identification generally requires the application of a unique mark, or the documentation of characteristics distinctive to each individual animal. To minimize impacts to often declining populations, scientific and ethical concerns encourage marking strategies that minimize handling time (i.e., stress) for captured individuals. We examined the relative efficacy of passive integrated transponder (PIT)-tagging and photo-identification to identify individual Boreal toads ( Anaxyrus boreas boreas ) in field and indoor settings. We evaluated whether initial handling time was influenced by identification method (PIT-tag or photo-identification) or environment (field or indoor) and assessed the applicability of each method in long-term monitoring programs. Initial handling time was higher for PIT-tagging than photo-identification and higher in the field than in an indoor environment; however, handling time for previously PIT-tagged individuals was greatly reduced such that photo-identification led to > 5.5 times more handling time than PIT-tagging over the course of a toad's lifetime. Investigators must determine the trade-off between initial and subsequent handling times to minimize the expected (mean) cumulative handling time for an individual over the course of a study. Cumulative handling time is a function of the study design and the species’ survival and detection probabilities. We developed a Shiny Application to allow investigators to determine the identification method that minimizes handling time for their own study system.

Ecological Indicators↗
USGS2021

Integrating regional and local monitoring data and assessment tools to evaluate habitat conditions and inform river restoration

R Restoring degraded rivers requires initial assessment of the fluvial landscape to identify stressors and riverine features that can be enhanced. We associated local-scale river habitat data collected using standardized national monitoring tools with modeled regional water temperature and flow data on mid-sized northwest U.S. rivers (30–60 m wide). We grouped these rivers according to quartiles of their modeled mean August water temperature and examined their physical habitat structure and flow. We then used principal components analysis to summarize the variation in several dimensions of physical habitat. We also compared local conditions in the Priest River, a river targeted for restoration of native salmonid habitat in northern Idaho, with those in other rivers of the region to infer potential drivers controlling water temperature. The warmest rivers had physical structure and fluvial characteristics typical of thermally degraded rivers, whereas the coldest rivers had higher mean summer flows and greater channel planform complexity. The Priest River sites had approximately twice as many deep residual pools (>50, >75, and >100 cm) and incision that averaged approximately twice that in the coldest rivers. Percentage fines and natural cover in the Priest were also more typical of the higher-temperature river groups. We found generally low instream cover and low levels of large wood both across the region and within the Priest River. Our approach enabled us to consider the local habitat conditions of a river in the context of other similarly sized rivers in the surrounding region. Understanding this context is important for identifying potential influences on river water temperature within the focal basin and for defining attainable goals for management and restoration of thermal and habitat conditions.

Idaho, Washington↗
USGS2022

Projected impact of sea-level rise and urbanization on mottled duck (Anas fulvigula) habitat along the Gulf Coast of Louisiana and Texas through 2100

Coastal wetlands along the Gulf of Mexico support a wide diversity of wildlife, are important nurseries for sport and commercial fisheries, provide erosion and flood control, and serve many other ecological functions and services. These marshes have been declining in area and degrading at alarming rates since the 1930s. Effective conservation planning is vital to protect these ecosystems, but decision makers often lack knowledge of expected future conditions to strategically target conservation actions. To address this issue, we focus on a species of conservation concern, the mottled duck (<i>Anas fulvigula</i>), that resides year-round in the coastal marshes of the Gulf of Mexico. We used location data collected from radiomarked hen mottled ducks from 2006 to 2011 to create an ensemble model of habitat selection for 2010. We then projected future habitat states using models of sea-level rise and human development. By combining future predictions with our ensemble model, we predict future habitat for mottled ducks through 2100, in 20-year time steps beginning with 2020. Sea-level rise models predicted reductions in coastal marsh habitats and our ensemble model predict corresponding declines in overall habitat quantity and quality for mottled ducks, with the largest rate of habitat loss predicted within the Chenier Plain of Louisiana, USA at 71%. In some areas, particularly the Texas Mid-Coast, USA, future urbanization and human development is expected to reduce the ability of wetland habitat to migrate inland with rising sea-levels. Our results also highlight areas of coastal marsh particularly vulnerable to sea-level rise; and conversely, identify areas most likely to persist into the future that could be targeted for habitat conservation to help mottled ducks persist on the landscape.

Louisiana, Texas↗
USGS2022

Tracking spatial regimes in animal communities: Implications for resilience-based management

Spatial regimes (the spatial extents of ecological states) exhibit strong spatiotemporal order as they expand or contract in response to retreating or encroaching adjacent spatial regimes (e.g., woody plant invasion of grasslands) and human management (e.g., fire treatments). New methods enable tracking spatial regime boundaries via vegetation landcover data, and this approach is being used for strategic management across biomes. A clear advancement would be incorporating animal community data to track spatial regime boundaries alongside vegetation data. In a 41,170-hectare grassland experiencing woody plant encroachment, we test the utility of using animal community data to track spatial regimes via two hypotheses. (H1) Spatial regime boundaries identified via independent vegetation and animal datasets will exhibit spatial synchrony; specifically, grassland:woodland bird community boundaries will synchronize with grass:woody vegetation boundaries. (H2) Negative feedbacks will stabilize spatial regimes identified via animal data; specifically, frequent fire treatments will stabilize grassland bird community boundaries. We used 26 years of bird community and vegetation data alongside 32 years of fire history data. We identified spatial regime boundaries with bird community data via a wombling approach. We identified spatial regime boundaries with vegetation data by calculating spatial covariance between remotely-sensed grass and woody plant cover per pixel. For fire history data, we calculated the cumulative number of fires per pixel. Setting bird boundary strength (wombling R 2 values) as the response variable, we tested our hypotheses with a hierarchical generalized additive model (HGAM). Both hypotheses were supported: animal boundaries synchronized with vegetation boundaries in space and time, and grassland bird communities stabilized as fire frequency increased (HGAM explained 38% of deviance). We can now track spatial regimes via animal community data pixel-by-pixel and year-by-year. Alongside vegetation boundary tracking, tracking animal community boundaries can inform the scale of management necessary to maintain animal communities endemic to desirable ecological states. Our approach will be especially useful for conserving animal communities requiring large-scale, unfragmented landscapes—like grasslands and steppes.

Kansas↗
USGS2022

Modelling physiological costs to assess impacts of climate change on amphibians in Yellowstone National Park, U.S.A

Amphibians are vital elements of ecosystems, serving as predator and prey. Their biphasic nature makes them dependent on aquatic and terrestrial habitats; as wet-skinned ectotherms, they are vulnerable to a range of environmental threats, including climate change. Yellowstone National Park (YNP) is becoming warmer and drier, and some wetlands important to amphibians have diminished. Continued climate change is predicted to reduce snowpack, soil moisture, and forest cover. We used data from models of future climate and vegetation cover to mechanistically model how climate change might affect the movements of Western Toads ( Anaxyrus boreas ) across the landscape of three test areas in YNP for the years 2050 and 2090, compared to 2000 as a baseline. Least-cost path analysis produced mixed results: for 2050 and 2090, physiological costs of movement increased in one test area and decreased in another; they were mixed in the third. These changes generally reflect the preference by toads for more open forests. Estimating costs for other species of YNP amphibians produced more negative results. For Columbia Spotted Frogs ( Rana luteiventris ) and Boreal Chorus Frogs ( Pseudacris maculata ) (both more aquatic and less adapted to terrestrial habitats), movement costs increased by about 2–15X. Reduced frequency or duration of rain events might limit the nocturnal movements of Western Tiger Salamanders ( Ambystoma mavortium ). Climate change may not have negative impacts on all amphibians throughout YNP, but increased movement costs for terrestrial habitats will accentuate effects of drying wetlands in at least parts of YNP. Land management actions that preserve habitat structure of both forest and low shrub cover may help mitigate continued drying conditions of climate change.

Montana, Wyoming↗