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At least 199 records · Page 11Linked to original sources
USGS2013

Invasive species in southern Nevada

Southern Nevada contains a wide range of topographies, elevations, and climactic zones emblematic of its position at the ecotone between the Mojave Desert, Great Basin, and Colorado Plateau ecoregions. These varied environmental conditions support a high degree of biological diversity (Chapter 1), but they also provide opportunities for a wide range of invasive species. In addition, the population center of the Las Vegas valley, and the agricultural area scattered throughout Clark, Lincoln, and Nye counties, all connected by a network of roads and highways, plus ephemeral and perennial watercourses, provide abundant opportunities for new invaders to be transported into and within southern Nevada (Brooks 2009; Brookes and Lair 2009). Invasive species are a concern for land managers because they can compete directly with native species (Brooks 2000; Chambers and others 2007; DeFlaco and others 2003, 2007; Mazzola and others 2010), change habitat conditions (Brooks and Esque 2002; Esque and others 2010; Miller and others 2011), and alter ecosystems properties (Brooks and Matchett 2006; Brooks and Pyke 2001; Evans and others 2001). Many invasive species have already established and spread to the point that they are now considered to pose significant problems in southern Nevada. However, there are likely many more than have wither not been transported to or colonized the region, or have established by for various reasons not spread or increased in abundance to the point where they have a significant impact. Land managers must understand both current and potential future problems posed by invasive species to appropriately prioritize management actions. This chapter addressed Sub-goal 1.2 in the SNAP Science Research Strategy (table 1.3; Turner and others 2009), which is to protect southern Nevada's ecosystems from the adverse impacts of invasive species. It provides a brief overview of the key concepts associated with the ecology and management of invasive species, and includes information relevant to all five strategic goals identified by the National Invasive Species Council: prevention, early detection and rapid response, control and management, restoration, and organization collaboration (National Invasive Species Council 2001, 2008). Restoration also is discussed in a broader context in Chapter 5 and 7. This chapter does not present a comprehensive review of all invasive species associated land management issues in southern Nevada, but rather uses key species of concern to illustrate invasion ecology concepts and management strategies. It is focused on terrestrial and aquatic plants and animals, and does not address potential invasive taxa from the other Kingdoms. The information presented herein is intended to provide a foundation upon which land management plans can be developed and project-level decisions can be made relative to the management of invasive species in southern Nevada.

Nevada↗
USGS2017

Seventy-five years of vegetation treatments on public rangelands in the Great Basin of North America

On the Ground Land treatments occurring over millions of hectares of public rangelands in the Great Basin over the last 75 years represent one of the largest vegetation manipulation and restoration efforts in the world. The ability to use legacy data from land treatments in adaptive management and ecological research has improved with the creation of the Land Treatment Digital Library (LTDL), a spatially explicit database of land treatments conducted by the U.S. Bureau of Land Management. The LTDL contains information on over 9,000 confirmed land treatments in the Great Basin, composed of seedings (58%), vegetation control treatments (24%), and other types of vegetation or soil manipulations (18%). The potential application of land treatment legacy data for adaptive management or as natural experiments for retrospective analyses of effects of land management actions on physical, hydrologic, and ecologic patterns and processes is considerable and just beginning to be realized.

California, Idaho, Nevada, Oregon, Utah↗
USGS2015

Effects of fire on small mammal communities in frequent-fire forests in California

Fire is a natural, dynamic process that is integral to maintaining ecosystem function. The reintroduction of fire (e.g., prescribed fire, managed wildfire) is a critical management tool for protecting many frequent-fire forests against stand-replacing fires while restoring an essential ecological process. Understanding the effects of fire on forests and wildlife communities is important in natural resource planning efforts. Small mammals are key components of forest food webs and essential to ecosystem function. To investigate the relationship of fire to small mammal assemblages, we live trapped small mammals in 10 burned and 10 unburned forests over 2 years in the central Sierra Nevada, California. Small mammal abundance was higher in unburned forests, largely reflecting the greater proportion of closed-canopy species such as Glaucomys sabrinus in unburned forests. The most abundant species across the entire study area was the highly adaptable generalist species, Peromyscus maniculatus . Species diversity was similar between burned and unburned forests, but burned forests were characterized by greater habitat heterogeneity and higher small mammal species evenness. The use and reintroduction of fire to maintain a matrix of burn severities, including large patches of unburned refugia, creates a heterogeneous and resilient landscape that allows for fire-sensitive species to proliferate and, as such, may help maintain key ecological functions and diverse small mammal assemblages.

California↗
USGS2016

Decision analysis for habitat conservation of an endangered, range-limited salamander

Many species of conservation concern are habitat limited and often a major focus of management for these species is habitat acquisition and/or restoration. Deciding the location of habitat restoration or acquisition to best benefit a protected species can be a complicated subject with competing management objectives, ecological uncertainties and stochasticity. Structured decision making (SDM) could be a useful approach for explicitly incorporating those complexities while still working toward species conservation and/or recovery. We applied an SDM approach to Red Hills salamander Phaeognathus hubrichti habitat conservation decision making. Phaeognathus hubrichti is a severely range-limited endemic species in south central Alabama and has highly specific habitat requirements. Many known populations live on private lands and the primary mode of habitat protection is habitat conservation planning, but such plans are non-binding and not permanent. Working with stakeholders, we developed an objectives hierarchy linking land acquisition or protection actions to fundamental objectives. We built a model to assess and compare the quality of the habitat in the known range of P. hubrichti . Our model evaluated key habitat attributes of 5814 pixels of 1 km 2 each and ranked the pixels from best to worst with respect to P. hubrichti habitat requirements. Our results are a spatially explicit valuation of each pixel, with respect to its probable benefit to P. hubrichti populations. The results of this effort will be used to rank pixels from most to least beneficial, then identify land owners in the most useful areas for salamanders who are willing to sell or enter into a permanent easement agreement.

Alabama↗
USGS2018

Toward salt marsh harvest mouse recovery: A review

The salt marsh harvest mouse (SMHM, Reithrodontomys raviventris ) is an endangered species, endemic to the San Francisco Estuary. Despite being protected for almost half a century and being included in a large number of recovery, restoration, and management plans, significant data gaps hinder conservation and management of the species, a challenge further complicated by developing threats such as climate change. In this review, we present the current state of knowledge; highlight research gaps on habitat requirements and distribution, taxonomic status and genetic structure, physiology, reproduction and demographics, population dynamics, and behavior and community interactions; and present an overview of threats to the species. Our review indicates that substantial data gaps exist; although some aspects of SMHM ecology, such as habitat use, have been addressed extensively, others, such as the effects of environmental contamination, are largely unaddressed. We suggest that conservation and restoration-planning processes consider experimental approaches within restoration designs to address these deficiencies. Continued investment in basic and applied SMHM ecology to collect baseline and long-term data will also be beneficial. Additionally, further coordination among managers and researchers can facilitate more effective responses to uncertainties and emerging threats, especially climate change, which threatens the SMHM and its habitat throughout its range.

San Francisco Estuary and Watershed Science↗
USGS2010

Novel plant communities limit the effects of a managed flood to restore riparian forests along a large regulated river

Dam releases used to create downstream flows that mimic historic floods in timing, peak magnitude and recession rate are touted as key tools for restoring riparian vegetation on large regulated rivers. We analysed a flood on the 5th‐order Green River below Flaming Gorge Dam, Colorado, in a broad alluvial valley where Fremont cottonwood riparian forests have senesced and little recruitment has occurred since dam completion in 1962. The stable post dam flow regime triggered the development of novel riparian communities with dense herbaceous plant cover. We monitored cottonwood recruitment on landforms inundated by a managed flood equal in magnitude and timing to the average pre‐dam flood. To understand the potential for using managed floods as a riparian restoration tool, we implemented a controlled and replicated experiment to test the effects of artificially modified ground layer vegetation on cottonwood seedling establishment. Treatments to remove herbaceous vegetation and create bare ground included herbicide application (H), ploughing (P), and herbicide plus ploughing (H + P). Treatment improved seedling establishment. Initial seedling densities on treated areas were as much as 1200% higher than on neighbouring control (C) areas, but varied over three orders of magnitude among the five locations where manipulations were replicated. Only two replicates showed the expected seedling density rank of (H + P) > P > H> C. Few seedlings established in control plots and none survived 1 year. Seedling density was strongly affected by seed rain density. Herbivory affected growth and survivorship of recruits, and few survived nine growing seasons. Our results suggest that the novel plant communities are ecologically and geomorphically resistant to change. Managed flooding alone, using flows equal to the pre‐dam mean annual peak flood, is an ineffective riparian restoration tool where such ecosystem states are present and floods cannot create new habitat for seedling establishment. This problem significantly limits long‐term river and riparian management options.

Colorado↗
USGS2014

Oyster reef restoration in the northern Gulf of Mexico: extent, methods and outcomes

Shellfish reef restoration to support ecological services has become more common in recent decades, driven by increasing awareness of the functional decline of shellfish systems. Maximizing restoration benefits and increasing efficiency of shellfish restoration activities would greatly benefit from understanding and measurement of system responses to management activities. This project (1) compiles a database of northern Gulf of Mexico inshore artificial oyster reefs created for restoration purposes, and (2) quantitatively assesses a subset of reefs to determine project outcomes. We documented 259 artificial inshore reefs created for ecological restoration. Information on reef material, reef design and monitoring was located for 94, 43 and 20% of the reefs identified. To quantify restoration success, we used diver surveys to quantitatively sample oyster density and substrate volume of 11 created reefs across the coast (7 with rock; 4 with shell), paired with 7 historic reefs. Reefs were defined as fully successful if there were live oysters, and partially successful if there was hard substrate. Of these created reefs, 73% were fully successful, while 82% were partially successful. These data highlight that critical information related to reef design, cost, and success remain difficult to find and are generally inaccessible or lost, ultimately hindering efforts to maximize restoration success rates. Maintenance of reef creation information data, development of standard reef performance measures, and inclusion of material and reef design testing within reef creation projects would be highly beneficial in implementing adaptive management. Adaptive management protocols seek specifically to maximize short and long-term restoration success, but are critically dependent on tracking and measuring system responses to management activities.

Alabama, Florida, Louisiana, Mississippi, Texas↗
USGS2014

Hyporheic flow and transport processes: mechanisms, models, and biogeochemical implications

Fifty years of hyporheic zone research have shown the important role played by the hyporheic zone as an interface between groundwater and surface waters. However, it is only in the last two decades that what began as an empirical science has become a mechanistic science devoted to modeling studies of the complex fluid dynamical and biogeochemical mechanisms occurring in the hyporheic zone. These efforts have led to the picture of surface-subsurface water interactions as regulators of the form and function of fluvial ecosystems. Rather than being isolated systems, surface water bodies continuously interact with the subsurface. Exploration of hyporheic zone processes has led to a new appreciation of their wide reaching consequences for water quality and stream ecology. Modern research aims toward a unified approach, in which processes occurring in the hyporheic zone are key elements for the appreciation, management, and restoration of the whole river environment. In this unifying context, this review summarizes results from modeling studies and field observations about flow and transport processes in the hyporheic zone and describes the theories proposed in hydrology and fluid dynamics developed to quantitatively model and predict the hyporheic transport of water, heat, and dissolved and suspended compounds from sediment grain scale up to the watershed scale. The implications of these processes for stream biogeochemistry and ecology are also discussed."

Reviews of Geophysics↗
USGS2011

Restoration of the fire-grazing interaction in Artemisia filifolia shrubland of the Southern Great Plains, North America

1.  Patterns of landscape heterogeneity are crucial to the maintenance of biodiversity in shrublands and grasslands, yet management practices in these ecosystems typically seek to homogenize landscapes. Furthermore, there is limited understanding of how the interaction of ecological processes, such as fire and grazing, affects patterns of heterogeneity at different spatial scales. 2.  We conducted research in Artemisia filifolia (Asteraceae) shrublands located in the southern Great Plains of North America to determine the effect of restoring the fire–grazing interaction on vegetation structure. Data were collected for 3 years in replicated pastures grazed by cattle Bos taurus where the fire–grazing interaction had been restored (fire and grazing = treatment pastures) and in pastures that were grazed but remained unburned (grazing only, no fire = control pastures). The effect of the fire–grazing interaction on heterogeneity (variance) of vegetation structure was assessed at scales from 12·5 m 2 to 609 ha. 3.  Most measurements of vegetation structure within treatment pastures differed from control pastures for 1–3 years after being burned but were thereafter similar to the values found in unburned control pastures. 4.  Treatment pastures were characterized by a lower amount of total heterogeneity and a lower amount of heterogeneity through time. 5.  Heterogeneity of vegetation structure tended to decrease as the scale of measurement increased in both treatment and control pastures. There was deviation from this trend, however, in the treatment pastures that exhibited much higher heterogeneity at the patch scale (mean patch size = 202 ha) of measurement, the scale at which patch fires were conducted. 6. Synthesis and applications . Vegetation structure in A. filifolia shrublands of our study was readily altered by the fire–grazing interaction but also demonstrated substantial resilience to these effects. The fire–grazing interaction also changed the total amount of heterogeneity characterizing this system, the scale at which heterogeneity in this system was expressed and the amount of heterogeneity expressed through time. Land managers seeking to impose a shifting mosaic of heterogeneity on this vegetation type can do so by restoring the fire–grazing interaction with potential conservation benefits similar to what has been achieved in other ecosystems where historic cycles of disturbance and rest have been restored.

Oklahoma↗
USGS2024

A review of the ecology and conservation biology of Sali (Micronesian Starling, Aplonis opaca guami) on Guam

The accidental introduction of the Brown Treesnake (BTS, Boiga irregularis ) to Guam following World War II led to the extinction, extirpation, or severe decline of most of Guam’s native avifauna. One forest bird species that managed to persist is the cavity-nesting Såli (Micronesian Starling, Aplonis opaca guami ), a once-ubiquitous native omnivore whose current Guam distribution is restricted primarily to urbanized areas in the northern half of the island, with a second much smaller population on Cocos Island off southern Guam. Såli on Guam breed year-round and are habitat generalists with large home ranges. Besides arthropods and small vertebrates, they consume fruit from a wide range of native and introduced plant species and are key seed dispersers within the local ecosystem. Såli on Guam suffer extremely high post-fledging mortality due to predation by BTS and cats, leading to a population age structure strongly skewed towards adult birds. Other threats include habitat loss and degradation, extreme weather events, and sea level rise. Key management activities aimed at restoring this species include predator control, while non-native ungulate removal and vegetation management may be undertaken to support broader ecological recovery. This species account on Såli provides a review of the literature on this species, synthesizing information on habitat use, life history, and demographics to provide a biological foundation for future recovery efforts.

Micronesica↗
USGS2013

Great Lakes rivermouths: a primer for managers

Between the North American Great Lakes and their tributaries are the places where the confluence of river and lake waters creates a distinct ecosystem: the rivermouth ecosystem. Human development has often centered around these rivermouths, in part, because they provide a rich array of ecosystem services. Not surprisingly, centuries of intense human activity have led to substantial pressures on, and alterations to, these ecosystems, often diminishing or degrading their ecological functions and associated ecological services. Many Great Lakes rivermouths are the focus of intense restoration efforts. For example, 36 of the active Great Lakes Areas of Concern (AOCs) are rivermouths or areas that include one or more rivermouths. Historically, research of rivermouth ecosystems has been piecemeal, focused on the Great Lakes proper or on the upper reaches of tributaries, with little direct study of the rivermouth itself. Researchers have been divided among disciplines, agencies and institutions; and they often work independently and use disparate venues to communicate their work. Management has also been fragmented with a focus on smaller, localized, sub-habitat units and socio-political or economic elements, rather than system-level consideration. This Primer presents the case for a more holistic approach to rivermouth science and management that can enable restoration of ecosystem services with multiple benefits to humans and the Great Lakes ecosystem. A conceptual model is presented with supporting text that describes the structures and processes common to all rivermouths, substantiating the case for treating these ecosystems as an identifiable class. 1 Ecological services provided by rivermouths and changes in how humans value those services over time are illustrated through case studies of two Great Lakes rivermouths—the St. Louis River and the Maumee River. Specific ecosystem services are identified in italics throughout this Primer and follow definitions described by the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (Table1). Collectively, this primer synthesizes existing information in a new way that aims to support management of rivermouths as distinct and important ecosystems. The development and management decisions made around rivermouths today will shape the future of these ecosystems, and the human communities within them, well into the future. 1 The information presented in this paper was derived from discussions and draft documents of the Great Lakes Rivermouth Collaboratory. The Great Lakes Rivermouth Collaboratory was established by the U.S. Geological Survey's Great Lakes Science Center (USGS-GLSC) in collaboration with the Great Lakes Commission to engage the Great Lakes scientific community in sharing and documenting knowledge about freshwater rivermouth ecosystems. For more information, see http://www.glc.org/habitat/Rivermouth-Collaboratory.html.

Great Lakes↗
USGS1997

USGS Wildland Fire Workshop, EROS Data Center, Sioux Falls, SD, July 9-10, 1997

Report on the first workshop on USGS wildland fire expertise and capabilities. The workshop brought together operational and research representatives ofthe Federal fire management agencies to initiate a more comprehensive assessment ofthe USGS's capabilities and the appropriate role(s) for USGS interaction and involvement with the fire community. The report discusses how the USGS can play a significant role in wildland fire research and offer the fire community several unique capabilities. Foremost capability is the role as data producer; fire detection, assessment, ecological modeling, and rehabilitation and restoration relying on digital elevation models, digital line-graphs, national technical means, and image data are also discussed. The bureau offers technical expertise using geographic information systems (GIS), image processing and analysis, data base management and clearinghouse experience, and access to national technical means data. The bureau must exploit the USGS's expertise and prominence in wildland fire research. The USGS is an experienced player in fire ecology, fire assessment, and fuels loading research. Finally, the USGS also offers strong interdisciplinary experience in watershed and geologic landslide modeling, which is key for assessing postfire effects.

Report↗
USGS2015

Development of an assessment tool for agricultural best management practice Implementation in the Great Lakes Restoration Initiative priority watersheds—Alger Creek, tributary to Saginaw River, Michigan

The Great Lakes face a number of serious challenges that cause damage to water quality, habitat, ecology, and coastal health. Excess nutrients from point and nonpoint sources have a history of causing harmful algal blooms (HABs); since the late 1990s, a resurgence of HABs have forced beach closures and resulted in water quality impairments across the Great Lakes. Studies increasingly point to phosphorus (P) runoff from agricultural lands as the cause of these HABs. In 2010, the Great Lakes Restoration Initiative (GLRI) was launched to revitalize the Great Lakes. The GLRI aims to address the challenges facing the Great Lakes and provide a framework for restoration and protection. As part of this effort, the Priority Watersheds Work Group (PWWG), cochaired by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and the U.S. Department of Agriculture-Natural Resources Conservation Service (USDA–NRCS), is targeting Priority Watersheds (PWs) to reduce the amount of P reaching the Great Lakes. Within the PWs, USDA–NRCS identifies small-scale subbasins with high concentrations of agriculture for coordinated nutrient reduction efforts and enhanced monitoring and modeling. The USDA–NRCS supplies financial and/or technical assistance to producers to install or implement best management practices (BMPs) to lessen the negative effects of agriculture to water quality; additional funding is provided by the GLRI through USDA–NRCS to saturate the small-scale subbasins with BMPs. The watershed modeling component, introduced in this fact sheet, assesses the effectiveness of USDA–NRCS funded BMPs, and nutrient reductions because of GLRI or other funding programs are differentiated. Modeling scenarios consider BMPs that have already been applied and those planned to be implemented across the small-scale subbasins.

Michigan↗
USGS2022

Statistical consideration of nonrandom treatment applications reveal region-wide benefits of widespread post-fire restoration action

Accurate predictions of ecological restoration outcomes are needed across the increasingly large landscapes requiring treatment following disturbances. However, observational studies often fail to account for nonrandom treatment application, which can result in invalid inference. Examining a spatiotemporally extensive management treatment-- post-fire seeding of declining sagebrush shrubs across the semiarid U.S. over two decades -- we quantify drivers and consequences of selection biases in restoration, using remotely sensed data. Treatments were disproportionately applied in more stressful, degraded ecological conditions. Failure to incorporate nonrandom treatment allocation led to the conclusion that costly, widespread seedings were unsuccessful; however, after considering biases, restoration positively affected sagebrush recovery. Treatment effect sizes varied with climate, indicating possible prioritization criteria for interventions. Our findings revise the perspective that widespread post-fire sagebrush seedings have been broadly “unsuccessful” and demonstrate how selection biases can pose substantive inferential hazards in observational studies of restoration efficacy and development of restoration theory.

California, Colorado, Idaho, Nevada, Oregon, Utah,↗
USGS2023

Conservation at the nexus of niches: Multidimensional niche modeling to improve management of Prairie Chub

Objective A central challenge in applied ecology is understanding how organisms are spatially and temporally distributed and how management might be tailored to maintain or restore species distributions. The niche concept is central to understanding species distributions, but the diversity of niche definitions requires that multiple dimensions be considered. For example, the Grinnellian niche concept focuses on environmental conditions that allow species to persist, the Eltonian niche concept stresses the influence of biotic interactions, and the fundamental niche concept considers both abiotic and biotic environmental features to define spaces that organisms could occupy. Methods We combined abiotic ( A ), biotic ( B ), and movement ( M ) information (collectively, BAM model) to map the multidimensional niche of Prairie Chub Macrhybopsis australis , a regionally endemic freshwater fish currently under review for listing under the Endangered Species Act. We estimated A using remotely sensed environmental riverscape variables, B using the spatial distribution of a hybridization zone between Prairie Chub and Shoal Chub M. hyostoma , and M using data from a mark–recapture study. Result The BAM model estimated the spatial extent of multiple niches, including the Grinnellian ( A ; extent = 944 km of river), Eltonian ( B ; 2974 km), and fundamental niche (overlap of A + B ; 645 km) niches. When A , B , and M components were combined, the estimated extent of the Prairie Chub niche was 645 km. Conclusion Our work shows that the realized, multidimensional niche of Prairie Chub includes medium to large rivers with high habitat connectivity in the upper–middle Red River basin upstream of the distribution of Shoal Chub. The current Prairie Chub distribution could be maintained by preventing further habitat fragmentation and maintaining the environmental gradient separating Prairie Chub from Shoal Chub. Expansion of the species distribution may be possible through restoration of longitudinal fluvial connectivity.

North American Journal of Fisheries Management↗
USGS2017

An evaluation of silver-stage American Eel conspecific chemical cueing during outmigration

American Eel Anguilla rostrata abundance has declined in recent decades, in part because sexually maturing, silver-stage adults, outmigrating from freshwater to oceanic spawning grounds, encounter migratory blockades or perish when passing through active hydroelectric turbines. To help improve downstream passage effectiveness and increase survival rates, the role of silver-stage American Eel conspecific chemical cueing during outmigration was investigated using a new type of bioassay. Inside a laboratory flume, downstream-swimming eels were exposed to both live (putative attractant) and dead (putative repellent) conspecific washings to determine whether their trajectory of downstream movement, level of activity, or time spent inside targeted areas of the arena changed after exposure. Silver eels were not attracted to or repulsed by either odor, as none of five scoring metrics indicated a behavioral response. Results did not support the hypothesis that conspecific chemical cueing is a mechanism for downstream migration coordination or danger avoidance; however responses may not have been readily apparent in this type of assay. Fisheries managers may opt to focus future research on more feasible restoration efforts using alternate experimental designs to remedy this ecological issue.

Environmental Biology of Fishes↗
USGS2013

Wyoming Basin Rapid Ecoregional Assessment

The overall goal of the Wyoming Basin Rapid Ecoregional Assessment (REA) is to provide information that supports regional planning and analysis for the management of ecological resources. The REA provides an assessment of baseline ecological conditions, an evaluation of current risks from drivers of ecosystem change (including energy development, fire, and invasive species), and a predictive capacity for evaluating future risks (including climate change). Additionally, the REA may be used for identifying priority areas for conservation or restoration and for assessing cumulative effects of multiple land uses. The Wyoming Basin REA will address Management Questions developed by the Bureau of Land Management and other agency partners for 8 major biomes and 19 species or species assemblages. The maps developed for addressing Management Questions will be integrated into overall maps of landscape-level ecological values and risks. The maps can be used to address the goals of the REA at a number of levels: for individual species, species assemblages, aquatic and terrestrial systems, and for the entire ecoregion. This allows flexibility in how the products of the REA are compiled to inform planning and management actions across a broad range of spatial scales.

Colorado;Idaho;Montana;Utah;Wyoming↗
USGS2023

Estimating the impact of climate and vegetation changes on runoff risk across the Hawaiian landscape

In Hawai’i, ecosystem conservation practitioners are increasingly considering the potential ecohydrological benefits from applied conservation action to mitigate the degrading impacts of runoff on native and restored ecosystems. One determinant of runoff is excess rainfall events where rainfall rates exceed the infiltration capacity of soils. To help understand runoff risks, we calculated the probability of excess rainfall events across the Hawaiian landscape by comparing the probability distributions of projected rainfall frequency and land-cover-specific infiltration capacity. We characterized soil infiltration capacity based on different land cover types (bare soil, grasses, and woody vegetation) and compared them to the frequency of large rainfall events under current and future climate scenarios. We then mapped the potential risk of excess rainfall across the main Hawaiian Islands. Our results show that land cover type has a very large effect on runoff risk as excess rainfall conditions are 234% more likely in bare soil and 75% more likely in grasslands compared to woody forests and shrublands. In contrast, projected shifts in rainfall intensity by end-of-century show little impact on these probabilities and thus, the risk of runoff. This indicates that the probability of excess rainfall is primarily driven by differences in land cover and not by current or potential shifts in rainfall patterns across the Hawaiian landscape. The ability to estimate the risk of potentially ecologically and economically costly runoff based on changes of land cover is useful for managers focused on invasive species control and restoration planning, especially for native and endemic ecosystems unique to the State of Hawai’i.

Hawaii↗