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USGS2018

Enhancing quantitative approaches for assessing community resilience

Scholars from many different intellectual disciplines have attempted to measure, estimate, or quantify resilience. However, there is growing concern that lack of clarity on the operationalization of the concept will limit its application. In this paper, we discuss the theory, research development and quantitative approaches in ecological and community resilience. Upon noting the lack of methods that quantify the complexities of the linked human and natural aspects of community resilience, we identify several promising approaches within the ecological resilience tradition that may be useful in filling these gaps. Further, we discuss the challenges for consolidating these approaches into a more integrated perspective for managing social-ecological systems.

Journal of Environmental Management↗

USGS2021

Book review: Replacing GDP by 2030: Towards a common language for the well-being and sustainability community, Rutger Hoekstra, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge (2019)

Critiques of gross domestic product (GDP) as the economy's primary measuring stick have emanated from the feminist and ecological economics communities for decades ( Kubiszewski et al., 2013 ) and have grown to include mainstream economists ( Stiglitz, Sen, and Fitousi, 2009 ) and national accountants ( Coyle, 2015 ). To the casual observer, such critiques seem to be growing almost as quickly as the number of proposed alternatives to GDP! Yet amidst the extensive literature on the topic, Rutger Hoekstra's “Replacing GDP by 2030: Towards a common language for the well-being and sustainability community” ( Hoekstra, 2019 ) stands out for simultaneously diagnosing the failings of the “Beyond GDP” movement and proposing a roadmap towards the book's goal of developing data systems to underpin critically needed well-being and sustainability indicators at national and global scales.

Ecological Economics↗

USGS1993

Managing biological diversity

Biological diversity is the variety of life and accompanying ecological processes (Off. Technol. Assess. 1987, Wilcove and Samson 1987, Keystone 1991). Conservation of biological diversity is a major environmental issue (Wilson 1988, Counc. Environ. Quality 1991). The health and future of the earth's ecological systems (Lubchenco et al. 1991), global climate change (Botkin 1990), and an ever-increasing rate in loss of species, communities, and ecological systems (Myers 1990) are among issues drawing biological diversity to the mainstream of conservation worldwide (Int. Union Conserv. Nat. and Nat. Resour. [IUCN] et al. 1991). The legal mandate for conserving biological diversity is now in place (Carlson 1988, Doremus 1991). More than 19 federal laws govern the use of biological resources in the United States (Rein 1991). The proposed National Biological Diversity Conservation and Environmental Research Act (H.R. 585 and S.58) notes the need for a national biological diversity policy, would create a national center for biological diversity research, and recommends a federal interagency strategy for ecosystem conservation. There are, however, hard choices ahead for the conservation of biological diversity, and biologists are grappling with how to set priorities in research and management (Roberts 1988). We sense disillusion among field biologists and managers relative to how to operationally approach the seemingly overwhelming charge of conserving biological diversity. Biologists also need to respond to critics like Hunt (1991) who suggest a tree farm has more biological diversity than an equal area of old-growth forest. At present, science has played only a minor role in the conservation of biological diversity (Weston 1992) with no unified approach available to evaluate strategies and programs that address the quality and quantity of biological diversity (Murphy 1990, Erwin 1992). Although actions to conserve biological diversity need to be clearly defined by viewing issues across biological, spatial, and temporal scales (Knopf and Smith 1992), natural resource managers find much conflicting information in the literature on strategies and programs for the conservation of biological diversity (Ehrlich 1992). Moreover, recommendations provided in much of the published information available for planning or decisions not only can be debated but may prove counterproductive if implemented. Current operational efforts beg for clearer focus on fundamental concepts central to daily decisions that impact native biological diversity. Recognizing that many biologists would provide different council and at the risk of oversimplification, we offer the following 4 topical issues as fundamental guidance to wise conservation action. These recommendations are based on our collective experiences working within conservation agencies since our original, collaborative essay (Samson and Knopf 1982). They are offered as initial, rather than authoritative, steps to better align research and management decisions with what we perceive as the critical issues in conserving biological diversity at the landscape and ecosystem levels of resolution.

Wildlife Society Bulletin↗

USGS2023

Trade-offs in adapting to changes in climate, land use, and water availability in California

Changes in land use and land cover, water systems, and climate are inextricably linked, and their combined stresses have had severe impacts in many regions worldwide. Integrated adaptation planning can support adaptive capacity by helping institutions manage land and water resources at regional to local scales. Linkages between these stressors mean that planners are often faced with potential trade-offs, and how to couple social and environmental sustainability remains a key question. We explore these questions in California’s Central Coast, a region that is already experiencing serious water shortages, housing shortages, rapid expansion of perennial agriculture, and severe droughts that are projected to become worse with climate change. Linked models of land use change (the Land Use and Carbon + Water Simulator [LUCAS-W]), water resources (LUCAS-W), and climate (the Basin Characterization Model [BCM]) produced forecasts of exposure to regional changes at 270-m resolution. We worked with regional stakeholders to develop a matrix of nine vulnerability measures that assessed key sensitivities to these changes. Each vulnerability measure combined one of the three exposure projections with spatial datasets representing one of three sensitivity communities (agricultural, domestic, or ecological). We assessed how five scenarios of land-use and water management strategies under consideration by regional planners could provide institutional, top-down adaptive capacity, and whether there were trade-offs in sustainable development goals for these communities. We found that specific land and water management strategies could greatly reduce regional vulnerability, particularly programs to cap water extractions to sustainable levels. The most dramatic trade-off was between the strategy of water demand caps that increased risk of habitat loss and ecosystem preservation that increased water vulnerability. However, trade-offs were usually limited and spatially localized, suggesting local tailoring of the strategies we assessed could reduce them. Trade-offs were more frequent across exposure classes (land use vs. water vs. climate changes) rather than sensitivity classes (agricultural vs. domestic vs. ecological communities), suggesting win-win opportunities for natural resource management. Our vulnerability maps can inform prioritization efforts for local adaptation planning.

California↗

USGS2004

The relationship between species detection probability and local extinction probability

In community-level ecological studies, generally not all species present in sampled areas are detected. Many authors have proposed the use of estimation methods that allow detection probabilities that are < 1 and that are heterogeneous among species. These methods can also be used to estimate community-dynamic parameters such as species local extinction probability and turnover rates (Nichols et al. Ecol Appl 8:1213-1225; Conserv Biol 12:1390-1398). Here, we present an ad hoc approach to estimating community-level vital rates in the presence of joint heterogeneity of detection probabilities and vital rates. The method consists of partitioning the number of species into two groups using the detection frequencies and then estimating vital rates (e.g., local extinction probabilities) for each group. Estimators from each group are combined in a weighted estimator of vital rates that accounts for the effect of heterogeneity. Using data from the North American Breeding Bird Survey, we computed such estimates and tested the hypothesis that detection probabilities and local extinction probabilities were negatively related. Our analyses support the hypothesis that species detection probability covaries negatively with local probability of extinction and turnover rates. A simulation study was conducted to assess the performance of vital parameter estimators as well as other estimators relevant to questions about heterogeneity, such as coefficient of variation of detection probabilities and proportion of species in each group. Both the weighted estimator suggested in this paper and the original unweighted estimator for local extinction probability performed fairly well and provided no basis for preferring one to the other.

Oecologia↗

USGS2019

Fire legacies in eastern ponderosa pine forests

Disturbance legacies structure communities and ecological memory, but due to increasing changes in disturbance regimes, it is becoming more difficult to characterize disturbance legacies or determine how long they persist. We sought to quantify the characteristics and persistence of material legacies (e.g., biotic residuals of disturbance) that arise from variation in fire severity in an eastern ponderosa pine forest in North America. We compared forest stand structure and understory woody plant and bird community composition and species richness across unburned, low‐, moderate‐, and high‐severity burn patches in a 27‐year‐old mixed‐severity wildfire that had received minimal post‐fire management. We identified distinct tree densities (high: 14.3 ± 7.4 trees per ha, moderate: 22.3 ± 12.6, low: 135.3 ± 57.1, unburned: 907.9 ± 246.2) and coarse woody debris cover (high: 8.5 ± 1.6% cover per 30 m transect, moderate: 4.3 ± 0.7, low: 2.3 ± 0.6, unburned: 1.0 ± 0.4) among burn severities. Understory woody plant communities differed between high‐severity patches, moderate‐ and low‐severity patches, and unburned patches (all p < 0.05). Bird communities differed between high‐ and moderate‐severity patches, low‐severity patches, and unburned patches (all p < 0.05). Bird species richness varied across burn severities: low‐severity patches had the highest (5.29 ± 1.44) and high‐severity patches had the lowest (2.87 ± 0.72). Understory woody plant richness was highest in unburned (5.93 ± 1.10) and high‐severity (5.07 ± 1.17) patches, and it was lower in moderate‐ (3.43 ± 1.17) and low‐severity (3.43 ± 1.06) patches. We show material fire legacies persisted decades after the mixed‐severity wildfire in eastern ponderosa forest, fostering distinct structures, communities, and species in burned versus unburned patches and across fire severities. At a patch scale, eastern and western ponderosa system responses to mixed‐severity fires were consistent.

Nebraska↗

USGS2011

Abundance of introduced species at home predicts abundance away in herbaceous communities

Many ecosystems worldwide are dominated by introduced plant species, leading to loss of biodiversity and ecosystem function. A common but rarely tested assumption is that these plants are more abundant in introduced vs. native communities, because ecological or evolutionary-based shifts in populations underlie invasion success. Here, data for 26 herbaceous species at 39 sites, within eight countries, revealed that species abundances were similar at native (home) and introduced (away) sites - grass species were generally abundant home and away, while forbs were low in abundance, but more abundant at home. Sites with six or more of these species had similar community abundance hierarchies, suggesting that suites of introduced species are assembling similarly on different continents. Overall, we found that substantial changes to populations are not necessarily a pre-condition for invasion success and that increases in species abundance are unusual. Instead, abundance at home predicts abundance away, a potentially useful additional criterion for biosecurity programmes.

Ecology Letters↗

USGS2021

Why is tree drought mortality so hard to predict?

Widespread tree mortality following droughts has emerged as an environmentally and economically devastating ‘ecological surprise’. It is well established that tree physiology is important in understanding drought-driven mortality; however, the accuracy of predictions based on physiology alone has been limited. We propose that complicating factors at two levels stymie predictions of drought-driven mortality: (i) organismal-level physiological and site factors that obscure understanding of drought exposure and vulnerability and (ii) community-level ecological interactions, particularly with biotic agents whose effects on tree mortality may reverse expectations based on stress physiology. We conclude with a path forward that emphasizes the need for an integrative approach to stress physiology and biotic agent dynamics when assessing forest risk to drought-driven morality in a changing climate.

Trends in Ecology and Evolution↗

USGS2016

Larval aquatic insect responses to cadmium and zinc in experimental streams

To evaluate the risks of metal mixture effects to natural stream communities under ecologically relevant conditions, the authors conducted 30-d tests with benthic macroinvertebrates exposed to cadmium (Cd) and zinc (Zn) in experimental streams. The simultaneous exposures were with Cd and Zn singly and with Cd+Zn mixtures at environmentally relevant ratios. The tests produced concentration–response patterns that for individual taxa were interpreted in the same manner as classic single-species toxicity tests and for community metrics such as taxa richness and mayfly (Ephemeroptera) abundance were interpreted in the same manner as with stream survey data. Effect concentrations from the experimental stream exposures were usually 2 to 3 orders of magnitude lower than those from classic single-species tests. Relative to a response addition model, which assumes that the joint toxicity of the mixtures can be predicted from the product of their responses to individual toxicants, the Cd+Zn mixtures generally showed slightly less than additive toxicity. The authors applied a modeling approach called Tox to explore the mixture toxicity results and to relate the experimental stream results to field data. The approach predicts the accumulation of toxicants (hydrogen, Cd, and Zn) on organisms using a 2-p K a bidentate model that defines interactions between dissolved cations and biological receptors (biotic ligands) and relates that accumulation through a logistic equation to biological response. The Tox modeling was able to predict Cd+Zn mixture responses from the single-metal exposures as well as responses from field data. The similarity of response patterns between the 30-d experimental stream tests and field data supports the environmental relevance of testing aquatic insects in experimental streams.

Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry↗

USGS1995

Can we manage for biological diversity in the absence of science?

Conservation of biological diversity is dependent on sound scientific information about underlying ecological processes. Current knowledge of the composition, distribution, abundance and life cycles of most species of plants and animals is incomplete, insufficient, unreliable, or nonexistent. Contemporary managers are also confronted with additional levels of complexity related to varying degrees of knowledge and understanding about interactions of species and ecosystems. Consequently, traditional species-oriented management schemes may have unintended consequences and ecosystem-oriented management initiatives may fail in the face of inadequate or fragmentary information on the structure, function, and dynamics of biotic communities and ecological systems. Nevertheless, resource managers must make decisions and manage based on the best biological information currently available. Adaptive resource management may represent a management paradigm that allows managers to learn something about the species or systems that they are managing while they are managing, but potential pitfalls lurk for such approaches. In addition to lack of control over the primary physical, chemical, and ecological processes, managers also lack control over social, economic, and political parameters affecting resource management options. Moreover, appropriate goals may be difficult to identify and criteria for determining success may be elusive. Some management responsibilities do not lend themselves to adaptive strategies. Finally, the lessons learned from adaptive management are usually obtained from a highly situational context that may limit applicability in a wider range of situations or undermine confidence that problems and solutions were properly diagnosed and addressed. Several scenarios are critically examined where adaptive management approaches may be inappropriate or ineffective and where management for biological diversity may be infeasible or inefficient without a sound scientific basis. Whereas some level of management must exist to meet agency responsibilities, more research is needed to conserve biological diversity.

Wildlife Society Annual Conference↗

USGS2021

Editorial: Combining the science and practice of restoration ecology-Case studies of a grassroots binational restoration collaborative in the Madrean Archipelago Ecoregion (2014- 2019)

The Sky Island Restoration Collaborative (SIRC) is a growing partnership between government agencies, nonprofit organizations, and private landowners in southeast Arizona, the United States, and northern Sonora, Mexico. Starting in 2014 as an experiment to cultivate restoration efforts by connecting people across vocations and nations, SIRC has evolved over 5 years into a flourishing landscape-restoration initiative. The group is founded on the concept of developing a restoration economy, where ecological and socioeconomic benefits are interconnected and complimentary. The variety of ideas, people, field sites, administration, and organizations promote learning and increase project success through iterative adaptive management, transparency, and sharing. The collaborative seeks to make restoration self-sustaining and improve quality of life for citizens living along the US-Mexico border. Research and experiments are developed between scientists and practitioners to test hypotheses, qualify procedures, and quantify impacts on shared projects. Simultaneously, partners encourage and facilitate connecting more people to the landscape—via volunteerism, internships, training, and mentoring. Through this history, SIRC’s evolution is pioneering the integration of community and ecological restoration to protect biodiversity in the Madrean Archipelago Ecoregion. This editorial introduces SIRC as a unique opportunity for scientists and practitioners looking to engage in binational partnerships and segues into this special journal issue we have assembled that relates new findings in the field of restoration ecology.

Arizona, New Mexico↗

USGS2015

Simulating realistic predator signatures in quantitative fatty acid signature analysis

Diet estimation is an important field within quantitative ecology, providing critical insights into many aspects of ecology and community dynamics. Quantitative fatty acid signature analysis (QFASA) is a prominent method of diet estimation, particularly for marine mammal and bird species. Investigators using QFASA commonly use computer simulation to evaluate statistical characteristics of diet estimators for the populations they study. Similar computer simulations have been used to explore and compare the performance of different variations of the original QFASA diet estimator. In both cases, computer simulations involve bootstrap sampling prey signature data to construct pseudo-predator signatures with known properties. However, bootstrap sample sizes have been selected arbitrarily and pseudo-predator signatures therefore may not have realistic properties. I develop an algorithm to objectively establish bootstrap sample sizes that generates pseudo-predator signatures with realistic properties, thereby enhancing the utility of computer simulation for assessing QFASA estimator performance. The algorithm also appears to be computationally efficient, resulting in bootstrap sample sizes that are smaller than those commonly used. I illustrate the algorithm with an example using data from Chukchi Sea polar bears ( Ursus maritimus ) and their marine mammal prey. The concepts underlying the approach may have value in other areas of quantitative ecology in which bootstrap samples are post-processed prior to their use.

Ecological Informatics↗

USGS2010

Ecological contingency in the effects of climatic warming on forest herb communities

Downscaling from the predictions of general climate models is critical to current strategies for mitigating species loss caused by climate change. A key impediment to this downscaling is that we lack a fully developed understanding of how variation in physical, biological, or land-use characteristics mediates the effects of climate change on ecological communities within regions. We analyzed change in understory herb communities over a 60-y period (1949/1951–2007/2009) in a complex montane landscape (the Siskiyou Mountains, Oregon) where mean temperatures have increased 2 °C since 1948, similar to projections for other terrestrial communities. Our 185 sites included primary and secondary-growth lower montane forests (500–1.200 m above sea level) and primary upper montane to subalpine forests (1,500–2,100 m above sea level). In lower montane forests, regardless of land-use history, we found multiple herb-community changes consistent with an effectively drier climate, including lower mean specific leaf area, lower relative cover by species of northern biogeographic affinity, and greater compositional resemblance to communities in southerly topographic positions. At higher elevations we found qualitatively different and more modest changes, including increases in herbs of northern biogeographic affinity and in forest canopy cover. Our results provide community-level validation of predicted nonlinearities in climate change effects.

Oregon↗

USGS2022

Global review of the effects of small carnivores on threatened species

The absences of large carnivores from many ecosystems, human-induced landscape changes, and resource supplementation have been theorized to increase the abundance of small carnivore species around the world. Overabundant and/or unconstrained small carnivores can have significant effects on specific prey species that, in some cases, can cascade through entire ecosystems. Here, we review the effects of small carnivores on threatened species. We focus on four well-studied families (Procyonidae, Mephitidae, Mustelidae, and Herpestidae) and emphasize that this is a global conservation issue with consequences for biodiversity. We review and compare the impacts that small carnivores can have on a variety of prey taxa including small mammals, nesting avian and reptilian species, and rare invertebrates. We differentiate between native and exotic small carnivores because this is often an important distinction in terms of the impact severity and range of effects. In addition to direct lethal effects (i.e. predation), small carnivores can also impact threatened species as disease vectors and through competition or overexploitation, which can disrupt communities via ecological release or extinction. Furthermore, we explore other case studies in which small carnivores have had positive effects on threatened species and discuss studies that reveal other taxa responsible for exerting stronger negative effects on threatened prey. We offer some concluding remarks about global small carnivore conservation and emphasize the need for decision-analytic approaches and robust analyses that can improve our assessment of how populations of threatened species can be affected. To date, indirect effects are especially difficult to measure in the field and many studies have provided only anecdotal or correlative results, signalling a need for improving our scientific methodologies and management approaches.

Book chapter↗

USGS2019

A hierarchical Bayesian approach for handling missing classification data

Ecologists use classifications of individuals in categories to understand composition of populations and communities. These categories might be defined by demographics, functional traits, or species. Assignment of categories is often imperfect, but frequently treated as observations without error. When individuals are observed but not classified, these “partial” observations must be modified to include the missing data mechanism to avoid spurious inference. We developed two hierarchical Bayesian models to overcome the assumption of perfect assignment to mutually exclusive categories in the multinomial distribution of categorical counts, when classifications are missing. These models incorporate auxiliary information to adjust the posterior distributions of the proportions of membership in categories. In one model, we use an empirical Bayes approach, where a subset of data from one year serves as a prior for the missing data the next. In the other approach, we use a small random sample of data within a year to inform the distribution of the missing data. We performed a simulation to show the bias that occurs when partial observations were ignored and demonstrated the altered inference for the estimation of demographic ratios. We applied our models to demographic classifications of elk ( Cervus elaphus nelsoni ) to demonstrate improved inference for the proportions of sex and stage classes. We developed multiple modeling approaches using a generalizable nested multinomial structure to account for partially observed data that were missing not at random for classification counts. Accounting for classification uncertainty is important to accurately understand the composition of populations and communities in ecological studies.

Ecology and Evolution↗

USGS2010

Novel plant communities limit the effects of a managed flood to restore riparian forests along a large regulated river

Dam releases used to create downstream flows that mimic historic floods in timing, peak magnitude and recession rate are touted as key tools for restoring riparian vegetation on large regulated rivers. We analysed a flood on the 5th‐order Green River below Flaming Gorge Dam, Colorado, in a broad alluvial valley where Fremont cottonwood riparian forests have senesced and little recruitment has occurred since dam completion in 1962. The stable post dam flow regime triggered the development of novel riparian communities with dense herbaceous plant cover. We monitored cottonwood recruitment on landforms inundated by a managed flood equal in magnitude and timing to the average pre‐dam flood. To understand the potential for using managed floods as a riparian restoration tool, we implemented a controlled and replicated experiment to test the effects of artificially modified ground layer vegetation on cottonwood seedling establishment. Treatments to remove herbaceous vegetation and create bare ground included herbicide application (H), ploughing (P), and herbicide plus ploughing (H + P). Treatment improved seedling establishment. Initial seedling densities on treated areas were as much as 1200% higher than on neighbouring control (C) areas, but varied over three orders of magnitude among the five locations where manipulations were replicated. Only two replicates showed the expected seedling density rank of (H + P) > P > H> C. Few seedlings established in control plots and none survived 1 year. Seedling density was strongly affected by seed rain density. Herbivory affected growth and survivorship of recruits, and few survived nine growing seasons. Our results suggest that the novel plant communities are ecologically and geomorphically resistant to change. Managed flooding alone, using flows equal to the pre‐dam mean annual peak flood, is an ineffective riparian restoration tool where such ecosystem states are present and floods cannot create new habitat for seedling establishment. This problem significantly limits long‐term river and riparian management options.

Colorado↗

USGS2018

Spatial factors of white-tailed deer herbivory assessment in the central Appalachian Mountains

Because moderate to over-abundant white-tailed deer ( Odocoileus virginianus ) herbivory impacts biodiversity and can alter community function, ecological benchmarks of herbivory impact are needed to assess deer impacts. We evaluated spatial patterns of deer herbivory and their relation to herbivory assessment by evaluating woody vegetation along 20 transects at each of 30 sites spread across a wide range of deer herd densities and vegetative condition throughout the biodiverse Appalachian Mountains of Virginia, USA. Surprisingly, herbivory patterns and the availability of woody forage generally were unchanged among physiographic regions and land use diversity classes. However, some relationships between browsing pattern and vegetation varied with scale. The total quantity of vegetation browsed on a given site and at the transect scale were related positively to the availability of forage, as the proportion of stems browsed decreased as stem density increased. However, this was only true when all stems were considered equally. When stem densities by species were weighted for deer preference, the proportion of stems browsed had no relationship or increased with stem density. Compared to the value from all transects sampled, on average, the mean of ≥ 3 transects within a site was within 0.1 of the browsing ratio and stem densities were within 0.5 stems m −2 . Our results suggest that one transect per square kilometer with a minimum of three transects may be sufficient for most browsing intensity survey requirements to assess herbivory impacts in the Appalachian region of Virginia. Still, inclusion of spatial factors to help partition variation of deer herbivory potentially may allow for improved precision and accuracy in the design of field herbivory impact assessment methods and improve their application across various landscape contexts.

Virginia↗

USGS2024

Quantifying the relative importance of biotic and abiotic factors in landscape-based models of stream fish distributions

Lotic fish species distributions are frequently predicted using remotely sensed habitat variables that characterize the adjacent landscape and serve as proxies for instream habitat. Recent advancements in statistical methodology, however, allow for leveraging fish assemblage data when predicting distributions. This is important because assemblage composition likely provides better information about instream habitat compared to landscape-derived metrics and therefore may improve predictions. To better understand the value of using multi-species fish data in species distribution modeling, we fit two conditional random fields (CRF) models to quantify the relative importance of fish assemblage co-occurrence, landscape-derived habitat variables, and interactions between these two predictor groups (i.e., effects of co-occurrence could be context-dependent) at over 1200 stream catchments in Pennsylvania, USA. We first compared predictive performance of CRF models against traditionally used single-species logistic regressions (generalized linear models; GLMs) and found that inclusion of fish assemblage data often improved predictive performance. The multi-species CRF models performed significantly better at predicting occurrence for 63% of species with an average percent increase in AUC of 25% compared to GLMs. Furthermore, the CRF identified species co-occurrences as more informative, and thus relatively more important, at predicting occurrence than the other effect types. The CRF also suggested that allowing these biotic effects to be context-dependent was important for predicting occurrence of many species. These findings illustrate the value of fish assemblage data for landscape-scale species distribution modeling and leveraging this information can improve predictions and inferences to help inform the management and conservation of freshwater fishes.

Pennsylvania↗