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Support of total maximum daily load programs using spatially referenced regression models

The spatially referenced regressions on watershed attributes modeling approach, as applied to predictions of total nitrogen flux in three North Carolina river basins, addresses several information needs identified by a National Research Council evaluation of the total maximum daily load program. The model provides reach-level predictions of the probability of exceeding water-quality criteria, and estimates of total nitrogen budgets. Model estimates of point- and diffuse-source contributions and nitrogen loss rates in streams and reservoirs compared moderately well with literature estimates. Maps of reach-level predictions of nutrient inputs and delivery provide an intuitive and spatially detailed summary of the origins and fate of nutrients within a basin.

Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management

Sources and summaries of water-quality information for the Rapid Creek basin, western South Dakota

This report provides a compilation of water quality information for the Rapid Creek basin in western South Dakota. Two types of information are included: First, past and current water quality monitoring data collected by the South Dakota Department of Water and Natural Resources, U.S. Forest Service, U.S. Geological Survey, and others are described. Second, a summary is included for all past water quality reports, publications, and theses that could be located during this study. A total of 62 documents were abstracted and included journal articles, abstracts, Federal agency reports and publications, university and State agency reports, local agency reports, and graduate theses. The report should be valuable to water resources managers, regulators, and others contemplating water quality research, monitoring, and regulatory programs in the Rapid Creek basin. (USGS)

Open-File Report

Prototyping a methodology for long-term (1680-2100) historical-to-future landscape modeling for the conterminous United States

Land system change has been identified as one of four major Earth system processes where change has passed a destabilizing threshold. A historical record of landscape change is required to understand the impacts change has had on human and natural systems, while scenarios of future landscape change are required to facilitate planning and mitigation efforts. A methodology for modeling long-term historical and future landscape change was applied in the Delaware River Basin of the United States. A parcel-based modeling framework was used to reconstruct historical landscapes back to 1680, parameterized with a variety of spatial and nonspatial historical datasets. Similarly, scenarios of future landscape change were modeled for multiple scenarios out to 2100. Results demonstrate the ability to represent historical land cover proportions and general patterns at broad spatial scales and model multiple potential future landscape trajectories. The resulting land cover collection provides consistent data from 1680 through 2100, at a 30-m spatial resolution, 10-year intervals, and high thematic resolution. The data are consistent with the spatial and thematic characteristics of widely used national-scale land cover datasets, facilitating use within existing land management and research workflows. The methodology demonstrated in the Delaware River Basin is extensible and scalable, with potential applications at national scales for the United States.

Delaware, Maryland, New Jersey, New York, Pennsylv

USGS research on energy resources, 1986; program and abstracts

The extended abstracts in this volume are summaries of the papers presented orally and as posters in the second V. E. McKelvey Forum on Mineral and Energy Resources, entitled "USGS Research on Energy Resources-1986." The Forum has been established to improve communication between the USGS and the earth science community by presenting the results of current USGS research on nonrenewable resources in a timely fashion and by providing an opportunity for individuals from other organizations to meet informally with USGS scientists and managers. It is our hope that the McKelvey Forum will help to make USGS programs more responsive to the needs of the earth science community, particularly the mining and petroleum industries, and Win foster closer cooperation between organizations and individuals. The Forum was named after former Director Vincent E. McKelvey in recognition of his lifelong contributions to research, development, and administration in mineral and energy resources, as a scientist, as Chief Geologist, and as Director of the U.S. Geological Survey. The Forum will be an annual event, and its subject matter will alternate between mineral and energy resources. We expect that the format will change somewhat from year to year as various approaches are tried, but its primary purpose will remain the same: to encourage direct communication between USGS scientists and the representatives of other earth-science related organizations. Energy programs of the USGS include oil and gas, coal, geothermal, uranium-thorium, and oil shale; work in these programs spans the national domain, including surveys of the offshore Exclusive Economic Zone. The topics selected for presentation at this McKelvey Forum represent an overview of the scientific breadth of USGS research on energy resources. They include aspects of petroleum occurrence in Eastern United States rift basins, the origin of magnetic anomalies over oil fields, accreted terranes and energy-resource implications, coal quality, geothermal energy sources, integrated geology and chemistry in uranium-deposit studies, and interpretations of sea-floor geology seen in reconnaissance-scale sidescan-sonar mosaics of the Gulf of Mexico and west coast Exclusive Economic Zone. Data are presented that are being used in building models of geothermal energy settings, basin histories, and the occurrence of energy resources. In addition to the technical sessions presenting the results of USGS research, each congressionally mandated USGS Mineral Resource Program has a display outlining plans and progress. We are all excited about this continuing opportunity to disseminate and discuss our research with our colleagues in industry and academia, and we welcome your suggestions on improving this series of Forums.

Circular

Estimated flood flows in the Lake Tahoe basin, California and Nevada

Lake Tahoe, the largest alpine lake in North America, covers about 192 square miles (mi 2 ) of the 506-mi 2 Lake Tahoe Basin, which straddles the border between California and Nevada (Fig. 1). In cooperation with the Nevada Department of Transportation (NDOT), the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) estimates the flood frequencies of the streams that enter the lake. Information about potential flooding of these streams is used by NDOT in the design and construction of roads and highways in the Nevada portion of the basin. The stream-monitoring network in the Lake Tahoe Basin is part of the Lake Tahoe Interagency Monitoring Program (LTIMP), which combines the monitoring and research efforts of various Federal, State, and regional agencies, including both USGS and NDOT. The altitude in the basin varies from 6,223 feet (ft) at the lake's natural rim to over 10,000 ft along the basin's crest. Precipitation ranges from 40 inches per year (in/yr) on the eastern side to 90 in/yr on the western side (Crippen and Pavelka, 1970). Most of the precipitation comes during the winter months as snow. Precipitation that falls from June through September accounts for less than 20 percent of the annual total.

California, Nevada

Age, distribution, and stratigraphic relationship of rock units in the San Joaquin Basin Province, California: Chapter 5 in Petroleum systems and geologic assessment of oil and gas in the San Joaquin Basin Province, California

The San Joaquin Basin is a major petroleum province that forms the southern half of California’s Great Valley, a 700-km-long, asymmetrical basin that originated between a subduction zone to the west and the Sierra Nevada to the east. Sedimentary fill and tectonic structures of the San Joaquin Basin record the Mesozoic through Cenozoic geologic history of North America’s western margin. More than 25,000 feet (>7,500 meters) of sedimentary rocks overlie the basement surface and provide a nearly continuous record of sedimentation over the past ~100 m.y. Further, depositional geometries and fault structures document the tectonic evolution of the region from forearc setting to strike-slip basin to transpressional margin. Sedimentary architecture in the San Joaquin Basin is complicated because of these tectonic regimes and because of lateral changes in depositional environment and temporal changes in relative sea level. Few formations are widespread across the basin. Consequently, a careful analysis of sedimentary facies is required to unravel the basin’s depositional history on a regional scale. At least three high-quality organic source rocks formed in the San Joaquin Basin during periods of sea level transgression and anoxia. Generated on the basin’s west side, hydrocarbons migrated into nearly every facies type in the basin, from shelf and submarine fan sands to diatomite and shale to nonmarine coarse-grained rocks to schist. In 2003, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) completed a geologic assessment of undiscovered oil and gas resources and future additions to reserves in the San Joaquin Valley of California (USGS San Joaquin Basin Province Assessment Team, this volume, chapter 1). Several research aims supported this assessment: identifying and mapping the petroleum systems, modeling the generation, migration, and accumulation of hydrocarbons, and defining the volumes of rock to be analyzed for additional resources. To better understand the three dimensional relationships between hydrocarbon source and reservoir rocks, we compiled a database consisting of more than 13,000 well picks and of one-mile resolution seismic grids. Both the well picks and the seismic grids characterize the depths to the top of key stratigraphic units. This database formed the basis of subsequent numerical modeling efforts, including the construction of a three- dimensional geologic model (Hosford Scheirer, this volume, chapter 7) and simulation of the petroleum systems in space and time (Peters, Magoon, Lampe, and others, this volume, chapter 12). To accomplish this modeling, we synthesized the age, geographic distribution, lithology, and petroleum characteristics of hydrocarbon source and reservoir rocks in the basin. The results of that synthesis are presented in this paper in the form of new stratigraphic correlation columns for the northern, central, and southern San Joaquin Valley (fig. 5.1; note that all figures are at the back of this report, following the References Cited). The stratigraphic relationships and ages published here draw heavily on published and unpublished studies of the San Joaquin Basin. The stratigraphy presented in each of the columns necessarily idealizes the subsurface geology over a relatively large area, instead of representing the specific geology at an individual well, oil and gas field, or outcrop. In this paper we present the background rationale for defining the geographic divisions of the basin (inset map, fig. 5.1), the paleontological time scales used for assigning absolute ages to rock units (figs. 5.2 and 5.3), and the supporting maps illustrating the geographic distribution of each rock type included in the stratigraphic column (figs. 5.4 through 5.64).

California

The Columbia River Research Laboratory

The mission of the Columbia River Research Laboratory is to serve the public by providing scientific information to support the stewardship of our Nation's fish and aquatic resources, with emphasis on the Columbia River basin. As a part of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Western Fisheries Research Center, we conduct objective, relevant research and seek partnerships to help fulfill this mission.

Fact Sheet

The importance of diverse data types to calibrate a watershed model of the Trout Lake Basin, Northern Wisconsin, USA

As part of the USGS Water, Energy, and Biogeochemical Budgets project and the NSF Long-Term Ecological Research work, a parameter estimation code was used to calibrate a deterministic groundwater flow model of the Trout Lake Basin in northern Wisconsin. Observations included traditional calibration targets (head, lake stage, and baseflow observations) as well as unconventional targets such as groundwater flows to and from lakes, depth of a lake water plume, and time of travel. The unconventional data types were important for parameter estimation convergence and allowed the development of a more detailed parameterization capable of resolving model objectives with well-constrained parameter values. Independent estimates of groundwater inflow to lakes were most important for constraining lakebed leakance and the depth of the lake water plume was important for determining hydraulic conductivity and conceptual aquifer layering. The most important target overall, however, was a conventional regional baseflow target that led to correct distribution of flow between sub-basins and the regional system during model calibration. The use of an automated parameter estimation code: (1) facilitated the calibration process by providing a quantitative assessment of the model's ability to match disparate observed data types; and (2) allowed assessment of the influence of observed targets on the calibration process. The model calibration required the use of a 'universal' parameter estimation code in order to include all types of observations in the objective function. The methods described in this paper help address issues of watershed complexity and non-uniqueness common to deterministic watershed models. ?? 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Journal of Hydrology

Water selenium speciation and sediment fractionation in a California flow-through wetland system

A flow-through wetland system was established in the Tulare Lake Drainage District (TLDD) in California to determine if selenium (Se) from saline irrigation drainage can be removed prior to impoundment in evaporation basins to reduce potential toxicity to waterbirds. The objective of this research was to evaluate Se speciation, accumulation, and fractionation in the waters and sediments of the newly developed wetland system. The inlet water was dominated by selenate [Se(VI), 92%], with smaller percentages of selenite [Se(IV), 5%] and organic Se [org-Se(-II), 3%]. For the outflow water, the average percentage of Se(VI) was 72% in November 1997 and 59% in February 1999. This change may be due to an increase in either residence time and/or accumulation of organic detrital matter, which may enhance Se(VI) reduction processes. Selenium accumulation, transformation, and incorporation with the solid phase were all intensified in the surface sediment (<20 cm). The highest total Se concentrations in the sediments were found in the top 5 cm and concentrations dramatically decreased with depth. Elemental Se [Se(0)], as extracted by Na2SO3, was the largest fraction (average of 46%) of the total sediment Se, followed by organic matter-associated Se (OM-Se) extracted by NaOH (average of 34%). Soluble, adsorbed, and carbonate-associated Se, as extracted by KCl, K2HPO4 (pH 8.0), and NaOAc (pH 5.0), were about 3, 10, and 3% of the total sediment Se, respectively. After establishing the wetland for 2 yr, significant Se removal from the flowing water was observed. The major sink mechanisms in the sediment are reduction to Se(0) and immobilization into the organic phase.A flow-through wetland system was established in the Tulare Lake Drainage District (TLDD) in California to determine if selenium (Se) from saline irrigation drainage can be removed prior to impoundment in evaporation basins to reduce potential toxicity to waterbirds. The objective of this research was to evaluate Se speciation, accumulation, and fractionation in the waters and sediments of the newly developed wetland system. The inlet water was dominated by selenate [Se(VI), 92%], with smaller percentages of selenite [Se(IV), 5%] and organic Se [org-Se(-II), 3%]. For the outflow water, the average percentage of Se(VI) was 72% in November 1997 and 59% in February 1999. This change may be due to an increase in either residence time and/or accumulation of organic detrital matter, which may enhance Se(VI) reduction processes. Selenium accumulation, transformation, and incorporation with the solid phase were all intensified in the surface sediment (<20 cm). The highest total Se concentrations in the sediments were found in the top 5 cm and concentrations dramatically decreased with depth. Elemental Se [Se(0)], as extracted by Na2SO3, was the largest fraction (average of 46%) of the total sediment Se, followed by organic matter-associated Se (OM-Se) extracted by NaOH (average of 34%). Soluble, adsorbed, and carbonate-associated Se, as extracted by KCl, K2HPO4 (pH 8.0), and NaOAc (pH 5.0), were about 3, 10, and 3% of the total sediment Se, respectively. After establishing the wetland for 2 yr, significant Se removal from the flowing water was observed. The major sink mechanisms in the sediment are reduction to Se(0) and immobilization into the organic phase.

California

Performance of quantitative vegetation sampling methods across gradients of cover in Great Basin plant communities

Resource managers and scientists need efficient, reliable methods for quantifying vegetation to conduct basic research, evaluate land management actions, and monitor trends in habitat conditions. We examined three methods for quantifying vegetation in 1-ha plots among different plant communities in the northern Great Basin: photography-based grid-point intercept (GPI), line-point intercept (LPI), and point-quarter (PQ). We also evaluated each method for within-plot subsampling adequacy and effort requirements relative to information gain. We found that, for most functional groups, percent cover measurements collected with the use of LPI, GPI, and PQ methods were strongly correlated. These correlations were even stronger when we used data from the upper canopy only (i.e., top “hit” of pin flags) in LPI to estimate cover. PQ was best at quantifying cover of sparse plants such as shrubs in early successional habitats. As cover of a given functional group decreased within plots, the variance of the cover estimate increased substantially, which required more subsamples per plot (i.e., transect lines, quadrats) to achieve reliable precision. For GPI, we found that that six–nine quadrats per hectare were sufficient to characterize the vegetation in most of the plant communities sampled. All three methods reasonably characterized the vegetation in our plots, and each has advantages depending on characteristics of the vegetation, such as cover or heterogeneity, study goals, precision of measurements required, and efficiency needed.

Idaho;Oregon

Two alternative juvenile life history types for fall Chinook salmon in the Snake River basin

Fall Chinook salmon Oncorhynchus tshawytscha in the Snake River basin were listed under the Endangered Species Act in 1992. At the time of listing, it was assumed that fall Chinook salmon juveniles in the Snake River basin adhered strictly to an ocean-type life history characterized by saltwater entry at age 0 and first-year wintering in the ocean. Research showed, however, that some fall Chinook salmon juveniles in the Snake River basin spent their first winter in a reservoir and resumed seaward movement the following spring at age 1 (hereafter, reservoir-type juveniles). We collected wild and hatchery ocean-type fall Chinook salmon juveniles in 1997 and wild and hatchery reservoir-type juveniles in 1998 to assess the condition of the reservoir-type juveniles at the onset of seaward movement. The ocean-type juveniles averaged 112-139 mm fork length, and the reservoir-type juveniles averaged 222-224 mm fork length. The large size of the reservoir-type juveniles suggested a high potential for survival to salt water and subsequent return to freshwater. Scale pattern analyses of the fall Chinook salmon spawners we collected during 1998-2003 supported this point. Of the spawners sampled, an overall average of 41% of the wild fish and 51% of the hatchery fish had been reservoir-type juveniles. Males that had been reservoir-type juveniles often returned as small "minijacks" (wild, 16% of total; hatchery, 40% of total), but 84% of the wild males, 60% of the hatchery males, and 100% of the wild and hatchery females that had been reservoir-type juveniles returned at ages and fork lengths commonly observed in populations of Chinook salmon. We conclude that fall Chinook salmon in the Snake River basin exhibit two alternative juvenile life histories, namely ocean-type and reservoir-type. ?? Copyright by the American Fisheries Society 2005.

Idaho, Oregon, Washington

Monitoring breeding and survival of ring-necked pheasant (Phasianus colchicus) in the Sacramento Valley, Sacramento-San Joaquin River Delta, and Klamath Basin, northern California—Five-year summary, 2013–17

The U.S. Geological Survey Western Ecological Research Center, Pheasants Forever, Mandeville Island Duck Club, and the California Department of Fish and Wildlife collaborated in a reconnaissance study to monitor populations of ring-necked pheasant ( Phasianus colchicus ) using radio-telemetry in the Sacramento Valley, Sacramento-San Joaquin River Delta, and Klamath Basin of northern California. The purpose of this study was to provide agencies and private landowners with a framework of decision-support tools to help manage pheasant populations in California. During winter, spring, and autumn of 2013–17, we radio- or Global Positioning System-marked 227 female pheasant across six study sites. Data collection was focused on investigating nest-site and brood-rearing habitat selection, examining avian predator composition, and estimating population vital rates to improve our understanding of pheasant population dynamics and to identify factors that may contribute to decreases in pheasant populations in California. The cumulative annual adult survival probability across all sites during 2013–17 was 27.6 percent (95-percent confidence interval [CI], 21.9–33.6), and the cumulative nest and brood survival probabilities were 34.5 percent (95-percent CI, 27.0–42.2) and 54.2 percent (95-percent CI, 43.7–63.5), respectively. Evidence from microhabitat surveys completed at nest-sites, brood locations, and random locations suggested that marked female pheasant tended to select increasing vertical cover and residual vegetation cover and tended to avoid areas of increasing bare ground cover regardless of life-history stage. However, females at nest-sites selected increasing grass cover and height, whereas brood-rearing females tended to select increasing forb cover and height. Only perennial grass cover and perennial grass height were shown to have a positive influence on nest survival, which suggests that increasing perennial grass cover in areas occupied by pheasant may increase nest survival. Analysis of environmental factors linked to vital rate information are ongoing and will continue with investigations at increased spatial scales (that is, macro-habitat) to develop integrated population models that can incorporate abundance estimates from crow count data with vital rates from telemetry data. This report includes results from 5 years of data collection and should be interpreted with caution, as these findings are preliminary.

California

Bioavailability of dissolved organic matter varies with anthropogenic landcover in the Upper Mississippi River Basin

Anthropogenic conversion of forests and wetlands to agricultural and urban landcovers impacts dissolved organic matter (DOM) within streams draining these catchments. Research on how landcover conversion impacts DOM molecular level composition and bioavailability, however, is lacking. In the Upper Mississippi River Basin (UMRB), water from low-order streams and rivers draining one of three dominant landcovers (forest, agriculture, urban) was incubated for 28 days to determine bioavailable DOC (BDOC) concentrations and changes in DOM composition. The BDOC concentration averaged 0.49 ± 0.30 mg L −1 across all samples and was significantly higher in streams draining urban catchments (0.72 ± 0.34 mg L −1 ) compared to streams draining agricultural (0.28 ± 0.15 mg L −1 ) and forested (0.47 ± 0.17 mg L −1 ) catchments. Percent BDOC was significantly greater in urban (10% ± 4.4%) streams compared to forested streams (5.6% ± 3.2%), corresponding with greater relative abundances of aliphatic and N-containing aliphatic compounds in urban streams. Aliphatic compound relative abundance decreased across all landcovers during the bioincubation (average -4.1% ± 10%), whereas polyphenolics and condensed aromatics increased in relative abundance across all landcovers (average of +1.4% ± 5.9% and +1.8% ± 10%, respectively). Overall, the conversion of forested to urban landcover had a larger impact on stream DOM bioavailability in the UMRB compared to conversion to agricultural landcover. Future research examining the impacts of anthropogenic landcover conversion on stream DOM composition and bioavailability needs to be expanded to a range of spatial scales and to different ecotones, especially with continued landcover alterations.

Minnesota, Iowa, North Dakota, South Dakota, Wisco

Lake Pontchartrain Basin: Bottom sediments and related environmental resources

Lake Pontchartrain is the largest estuary southern Louisiana. It is an important recreational, commercial, and environmental resource for New Orleans and southwestern Louisiana. This publication is part of a 5-year cooperative program led by the USGS on the geological framework and sedimentary processes of the Lake Pontchartrain Basin. This presentation is divided into two main parts: - Scientific Research and Assessments - Multimedia Tools and Regional Resources The scientific sections include historical information on the area; shipboard, field, and remote sensing studies; and a comprehensive sediment database with geological and chemical discussions of the region. The multimedia and resources sections include Geographic Information System (GIS) tools and data, a video demonstrating vibracore sampling techniques in Lake Pontchartrain, and abstracts from four Basics of the Basin symposia.

Louisiana

Improving groundwater predictions utilizing seasonal precipitation forecasts from general circulation models forced with sea surface temperature forecasts

Recent studies have found a significant association between climatic variability and basin hydroclimatology, particularly groundwater levels, over the southeast United States. The research reported in this paper evaluates the potential in developing 6-month-ahead groundwater-level forecasts based on the precipitation forecasts from ECHAM 4.5 General Circulation Model Forced with Sea Surface Temperature forecasts. Ten groundwater wells and nine streamgauges from the USGS Groundwater Climate Response Network and Hydro-Climatic Data Network were selected to represent groundwater and surface water flows, respectively, having minimal anthropogenic influences within the Flint River Basin in Georgia, United States. The writers employ two low-dimensional models [principle component regression (PCR) and canonical correlation analysis (CCA)] for predicting groundwater and streamflow at both seasonal and monthly timescales. Three modeling schemes are considered at the beginning of January to predict winter (January, February, and March) and spring (April, May, and June) streamflow and groundwater for the selected sites within the Flint River Basin. The first scheme (model 1) is a null model and is developed using PCR for every streamflow and groundwater site using previous 3-month observations (October, November, and December) available at that particular site as predictors. Modeling schemes 2 and 3 are developed using PCR and CCA, respectively, to evaluate the role of precipitation forecasts in improving monthly and seasonal groundwater predictions. Modeling scheme 3, which employs a CCA approach, is developed for each site by considering observed groundwater levels from nearby sites as predictands. The performance of these three schemes is evaluated using two metrics (correlation coefficient and relative RMS error) by developing groundwater-level forecasts based on leave-five-out cross-validation. Results from the research reported in this paper show that using precipitation forecasts in climate models improves the ability to predict the interannual variability of winter and spring streamflow and groundwater levels over the basin. However, significant conditional bias exists in all the three modeling schemes, which indicates the need to consider improved modeling schemes as well as the availability of longer time-series of observed hydroclimatic information over the basin.

Georgia

Swatara Creek basin of southeastern Pennsylvania: An evaluation of its hydrologic system

Local concentrations of population in the Swatara Creek basin of Pennsylvania find it necessary to store, transport, and treat water because local supplies are either deficient or have been contaminated by disposal of wastes in upstream areas. Water in the basin is available for the deficient areas and for dilution of the coal-mine drainage in the northern parts and the sewage wastes in the southern parts. Swatara Creek drains 576 square miles just east of Harrisburg, Pa., and is the largest tributary to the Susquehanna River from the north side below Harrisburg. It rises in the southern Pocono Mountains and flows southwestward across the Lebanon Plateau. On an average day Swatara Creek discharges more than 630 million gallons into the Susquehanna River at Middletown, Pa. In a year this amounts to about 23 inches of water over the entire basin and is the residual from an average annual precipitation of 45.5 inches. During an average year the flow in Swatara Creek from the upper third of the basin above Harper Tavern is always greater than 1,300 mgd (million gallons per day) for at least 15 days and is always greater than 25 mgd for at least 350 days. The daily streamflow from the basin averages 1.1 mgd per sq mi, but yields from different areas range from 0.97 to 1.22 mgd per sq mi. These variations are caused chiefly by differences in precipitation and land cover. The area of lowest yield is in the valleys west of Tremont, and the highest yields are in the Upper and Lower Little Swatara Creek subbasins. At high and medium stages the chemical character of the water in the streams is suitable for public and private supplies. At lower stages, defending on the areas and the amounts of contamination by coal-mine drainage and sewage pollution, the natural flow may require some treatment. At low stages the chemical characteristics of the natural flow not affected by man is almost identical with that of the ground water in the area drained by the stream. In general, the total dissolved solids range from about 25 to 400 parts per million and the hardness is as much as about 300 parts per million. The ground-water increment to the base flow of Swatara Creek averages about 240 mgd, or about 8.8 inches annually, for the basin. Generally, ground-water supplies in amounts of less than 0.5 mgd can be developed south of Blue Mountain. Supplies of several million gallons per day have been developed for industrial use from the permeable limestones in the south-central part of the basin. More intensive investigation in other parts of the basin would indicate areas where supplies of more than 0.5 mgd could be developed from properly spaced wells. The chemical character of water from wells depends largely on the host rock. In highly soluble rocks water contains large amount of dissolved solids; in more resistant rocks concentrations are lower. The chemical character of unpolluted ground water generally reflects the composition of the more readily soluble minerals in the local geologic environment. Areas contaminated by septic- tank effluent may have above normal amounts of nitrate and detergent products. Except where polluted, most ground water is suitable for public and industrial uses without extensive treatment. Sites for storage of surface water exist in the part of the basin lying in the valley and ridge area. As much as 30 to 40 percent of the annual flow could be impounded for release as low-flow augmentation for dilution of mine drainage and other wastes in the basin. Low sediment yields of supplying drainage areas would ensure a long life expectancy of reservoirs at these sites. Overbank flooding of the main stem of the Swatara Creek and its tributaries has occurred many times in the past. However, it has not been a hazard because urban development has not encroached on the flood plain. An inundation map of the August 1933 flood provides a basis that urban planners may use to avoid future damage. As water in the Swatara Creek moves downstream to the Susquehanna River, the flow is influenced consecutively by a large annual rainfall on the northern valley and ridge area, the wastes of surface and subsurface coal-mining activities, and less annual rainfall on the part of the basin lying in the Lebanon Plateau area; the flow is supplemented and further influenced by many tributaries and by the industrial and domestic wastes that are carried by these secondary streams. The annual precipitation ranges from 52 inches at the east edge and 49 inches at the west edge of the mountainous part of the basin to about 41 inches at the southwestern part at Middletown. The rainfall generally is adequate during the growing season to mature the crops. The mean annual temperature at Lebanon is about 52&deg;F, and the growing season is about 180 days. In this report the basin has been divided into eight hydrologic zones, leased on runoff, natural use of water, and chemical character of water. Four zones lie in the valley and ridge area, three lie in the Lebanon Plateau area, and one lies in the highland along the southeastern basin boundary. In each of the zones the hydrologic characteristics are virtually the same, but they may be completely different from those in adjacent zones. The boundaries of the zones generally coincide with boundaries between geologic formations, and the areas in each zone include rocks of similar influence on water. Streams in zone 4 at the northeast edge of the plateau have the highest average surface runoff from 1.2 to 1.1 mgd per sq mi whereas those in zone 2 at the northwest edge of the valley and ridge area have the lowest, about 1.0 mgd. Streams in zone 8, along the southeast edge of the basin, have the largest sustained low-flow yield, about 0.26 to 0.19 mgd per sq mi; those in zone 5 overlying the Martinsburg Shale east of Harrisburg have the smallest sustained low-flow yields, 0.03 to 0.01 mgd. Streams in the limestone area of zone 7 have the greatest range in low-flow yields in any one zone from 0.60 to 0 mgd per sq mi. Low-flow yields in zones 1 through 4 range from 0.13 to 0.03 mgd per sq mi. Surface flows from zones 1 and 2 are generally acidic and contain high concentrations of sulfate, iron, and total dissolved solids especially where contaminated with mine wastes. Surface flows from zones 3 and 4 are dilute, slightly alkaline, and suitable for public water supplies. Surface flows from zones 5, 6, and 7 are alkaline and contain moderate concentrations of dissolved solids with waters of highest hardness occurring in zone 7. Surface flows from zone 8 are dilute to moderately mineralized and are relatively high in silica concentration. Nitrate concentrations are high in surf Fee flows below sewage outfalls and in ground water contaminated by septic tank effluent and industrial wastes. Average annual sediment yields of 550 to 650 tons per square mile are characteristic of zones 1 and 2 where strip mining has destroyed the forest cover and coal culm is carried into the streams. From agricultural lands on the Martinsburg Shale in zones 5 and 6, annual sediment yields range from 300 to 350 tons per square mile; but from agricultural lands on the siliceous rocks in zone 8 and zones 3 and 4 in the valley and ridge area, the sediment yield ranges from 200 to 250 tons annually per square mile. Lowest annual sediment yields in the basin are in the forested areas of siliceous rocks in zones 2, 3, 4, and 5, and in the sinkhole topography of the limestones in zone 7 where the yield ranges from 30 to 35 tons and 50 to 60 tons per square mile, respectively. The amount of ground water that can be developed in the basin is dependent on the ability of the underlying rocks to yield water to wells. More than 300 gpm (gallons per minute) can be obtained from wells in alluvial materials in the valley bottoms and in some of the limestones where large solution channels and fractures are penetrated by the wells. From 50 to 300 gpm can be obtained from wells in loosely cemented sandstones and in fractured limestones. From 10 to 50 gpm can be developed from wells in the shales and harder sandstones. The most dense rocks will yield from 1 to 10 gpm from fractures and crevices. Most wells yield water from the upper 350 feet of the formation, for this part contains the most fractures or solution channels. Studies show that the velocity at which a contaminant will move downstream in the basin is related to the discharge of the stream at the time. At a stream discharge of about 400 mgd at Pine Grove, a contaminant in Swatara Creek would require about 40 hours to move from Pine Grove to Middletown. As a result of dispersion and dilution, the maximum concentration of the contaminant at Middletown would be less than 20 percent the concentration at Pine Grove under these conditions. An evaluation of the availability of water in the basin indicates that about I,239 mgd enters as precipitation, 630 mgd leaves as streamflow, 580 mgd is evaporated and transpired, and 56 mgd is diverted for use by man. Not all the diversions for man's use are lost to the basin, as about 27 mgd is returned as sewage for reuse. About one-fourth of the waste water is returned to the ground and the remainder to stream drainageways. Of that diverted by man, 11.6 mgd is used for public supply and 44.4 mgd for industrial and private supplies. Diversions of streamflow furnish 86 percent of the public supply and 27 percent of the industrial supply, and ground-water sources yield the remainder. Municipal and private sewage treatment plants are upgrading the waste water in many places, but no provisions are being made for treatment other than natural dilution and assimilation for the 15 mgd of coal-nine drainage in the northern part of the basin. Technology for economic treatment of mine water is not available at this time, although research in this field is being done. Urbanization eastward from Harrisburg and around Lebanon has increased the population density of the basin. Densities of 500 people per square mile and water use exceeding 2.0 mgd per sq mi can be expected in the future. By the year 2000 the population of the basin may increase 60 percent; and if the per capita rate of use increases 0.5 percent per year the domestic requirements for water will be about two times the present use, or 23 mgd. Similarly, if the present 1:4 ratio of domestic use to industrial use of water continues, at least 89 mgd will be needed for industry in the future. Although an increase to twice the present use of water can be foreseen, or 112 mgd, water for the dilution and assimilation of wastes from treatment systems are not included. Providing water for dilution of wastes from treatment plants has not been a problem, but in the future the amounts needed for this purpose will be greater as the population increases. As water becomes more valuable, treatment of sewage wastes to reduce the biochemical-oxygen-demand load by at least 80 to 90 percent will be necessary to conserve water for more productive uses. As much as 100 mgd may be needed for waste dilution in the basin by year 2000. The present trends in suburban and light industrial development will probably persist in the basin. Problems arising through changes in economic value of water, conflicts in use, and alternatives in development are typical of those confronting the manager of a water-resource system.

Pennsylvania

Compilation of data relating to the erosive response of 608 recently-burned basins in the western United States

This report presents a compilation of data on the erosive response, debris-flow initiation processes, basin morphology, burn severity, event-triggering rainfall, rock type, and soils for 608 basins recently burned by 53 fires located throughout the Western United States. The data presented here are a combination of those collected during our own field research and those reported in the literature. In some cases, data from a Geographic Information System (GIS) and Digital Elevation Models (DEMs) were used to supplement the data from the primary source. Due to gaps in the information available, not all parameters are characterized for all basins. This database provides a resource for researchers and land managers interested in examining relations between the runoff response of recently burned basins and their morphology, burn severity, soils and rock type, and triggering rainfall. The purpose of this compilation is to provide a single resource for future studies addressing problems associated with wildfire-related erosion. For example, data in this compilation have been used to develop a model for debris flow probability from recently burned basins using logistic multiple regression analysis (Cannon and others, 2004). This database provides a convenient starting point for other studies. For additional information on estimated post-fire runoff peak discharges and debris-flow volumes, see Gartner and others (2004).

western United States

A whole ecosystem approach to studying climate change in interior Alaska

Yukon River Basin Principal Investigators Workshop; Portland, Oregon, 18-20 January 2011; High latitudes are known to be particularly susceptible to climate warming, leading to an emphasis of field and modeling research on arctic regions. Subarctic and boreal regions such as the Yukon River Basin (YRB) of interior Alaska and western Canada are less well studied, although they encompass large areas that are vulnerable to changes in forest composition, permafrost distribution, and hydrology. There is an urgent need to understand the resiliency and vulnerability of these complex ecosystems as well as their feedbacks to the global climate system. Consequently, U.S. Geological Survey scientists, with other federal agency, university, and private industry partners, is focusing subarctic interdisciplinary studies on the Beaver Creek Wild and Scenic River watershed (http://www.blm.gov/pgdata/content/ak/en/prog/nlcs/beavercrk_nwsr.html) and Yukon Flats National Wildlife Refuge (http://yukonflats.fws.gov/) in the YRB, south and west of Fort Yukon, Alaska. These areas are national treasures of wetlands, lakes, and uplands that support large populations of wildlife and waterfowl and are home to vibrant native Alaskan communities that depend on the area for a subsistence lifestyle.

Alaska