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Modeling apple snail population dynamics on the Everglades landscape

Context The Florida Everglades has diminished in size and its existing wetland hydrology has been altered. The endangered snail kite ( Rostrhamus sociabilis ) has nearly abandoned the Everglades, and its prey, the apple snail ( Pomacea paludosa ), has declined. Objective We developed a population model (EverSnail) to understand apple snail response to inter- and intra-annual fluctuations in water depths over the Everglades landscape. EverSnail was developed as a tool to understand how apple snails respond to different hydrologic scenarios. Methods EverSnail is an age- and size-structured, spatially-explicit landscape model of P. paludosa in the Everglades. Landscape-level inputs are water depth and air temperature. We conducted sensitivity analyses by running EverSnail with ± 20 % the baseline value of eight parameters. Results EverSnail was sensitive to changes in survival and water depth associated with reproduction. The EverSnail population varied with changes and/or differences in depth generally consistent with empirical data; site-specific comparisons to field data proved less reliable. A simulated 3-year wet period resulted in a shift in apple snail distribution, but little change in total abundance over the landscape. In contrast, a simulated 3-year succession of relatively dry years resulted in overall lower snail abundances. Conclusions Comparisons of model output to empirical data indicate the need for more data to better understand, and eventually parameterize, several aspects of snail ecology in support of EverSnail. A primary value of EverSnail is its capacity to describe the relative response of snail abundance to alternative hydrologic scenarios considered for Everglades water management and restoration.

Florida↗

Assessment of the hydraulic connection between ground water and the Peace River, west-central Florida

The hydraulic connection between the Peace River and the underlying aquifers along the length of the Peace River from Bartow to Arcadia was assessed to evaluate flow exchanges between these hydrologic systems. Methods included an evaluation of hydrologic and geologic records and seismic-reflection profiles, seepage investigations, and thermal infrared imagery interpretation. Along the upper Peace River, a progressive long-term decline in streamflow has occurred since 1931 due to a lowering of the potentiometric surface of the Upper Floridan aquifer by as much as 60 feet because of intensive ground-water withdrawals for phosphate mining and agriculture. Another effect from lowering the potentiometric surface has been the cessation of flow at several springs located near and within the Peace River channel, including Kissengen Spring, that once averaged a flow of about 19 million gallons a day. The lowering of ground-water head resulted in flow reversals at locations where streamflow enters sinkholes along the streambed and floodplain. Hydrogeologic conditions along the Peace River vary from Bartow to Arcadia. Three distinctive hydrogeologic areas along the Peace River were delineated: (1) the upper Peace River near Bartow, where ground-water recharge occurs; (2) the middle Peace River near Bowling Green, where reversals of hydraulic gradients occur; and (3) the lower Peace River near Arcadia, where ground-water discharge occurs. Seismic-reflection data were used to identify geologic features that could serve as potential conduits for surface-water and ground-water exchange. Depending on the hydrologic regime, this exchange could be recharge of surface water into the aquifer system or discharge of ground water into the stream channel. Geologic features that would provide pathways for water movement were identified in the seismic record; they varied from buried irregular surfaces to large-scale subsidence flexures and vertical fractures or enlarged solution conduits. Generally, the upper Peace River is characterized by a shallow, buried irregular top of rock, numerous observed sinkholes, and subsidence depressions. The downward head gradient provides potential for the Peace River to lose water to the ground-water system. Along the middle Peace River area, head gradients alternate between downward and upward, creating both recharging and discharging ground-water conditions. Seismic records show that buried, laterally continuous reflectors in the lower Peace River pinch out in the middle Peace River streambed. Small springs have been observed along the streambed where these units pinch out. This area corresponds to the region where highest ground-water seepage volumes were measured during this study. Further south, along the lower Peace River, upward head gradients provide conditions for ground-water discharge into the Peace River. Generally, confinement between the surficial aquifer and the confined ground-water systems in this area is better than to the north. However, localized avenues for surface-water and ground-water interactions may exist along discontinuities observed in seismic reflectors associated with large-scale flexures or subsidence features. Ground-water seepage gains or losses along the Peace River were quantified by making three seepage runs during periods of: (1) low base flow, (2) high base flow, and (3) high flow. Low and high base-flow seepage runs were performed along a 74-mile length of the Peace River, between Bartow and Nocatee. Maximum losses of 17.3 cubic feet per second (11.2 million gallons per day) were measured along a 3.2-mile reach of the upper Peace River. The high-flow seepage run was conducted to quantify losses in the Peace River channel and floodplain between Bartow and Fort Meade. Seepage losses calculated during high-flow along a 7.2-mile reach of the Peace River, from the Clear Springs Mine bridge to the Mobil Mine bridge, were approximately 10 percent of the river flow, or 118 cubic feet per second. Calculated seepages along the Peace River in Hardee and De Soto Counties were inconclusive, because most seepages were within the range of discharge measurement error. Two continuous aerial thermal infrared imagery surveys were conducted to locate sites of ground-water discharge along the Peace River. Although temperature and hydrologic conditions were ideal to observe spring flow using thermal infrared imaging techniques, no sources of ground-water discharge were identified using this method. Diffuse ground-water seepage may, however, provide significant ground-water discharge.

Florida↗

A reconnaissance study of oxygen, hydrogen and strontium isotopes in geochemically diverse lakes, Western Nebraska, USA

Reconnaissance ??18O,, ??D, and ??87Sr data for fifteen lakes in the Western Lakes Region of the Sand Hills of Nebraska indicate dynamic hydrologic systems. The rather narrow range of ??87Sr from lake water (1.1 to 2.1) and groundwater (0.9 to 1.7) indicates that the groundwater is generally unradiogenic. Groundwater residence times and relatively unradiogenic volcanic ash within the dune sediments control the ??87Sr values. Based on the mutual variations of ??18O and ??D, the lakes can be divided into three groups. In Group 1, both ??18O and ??D values increase from spring to fall. The ??18O and ??D values in Group 2 decreased from spring to fall. Group 3 are ephemeral lakes that went dry some time during 1992. The data and isotopic modeling show that variations in the ratio of evaporation relative to groundwater inflow, local humidity conditions, and the ??(a) has substantial influence on the isotopic composition. In addition, isotopic behavior in ephemeral hakes can be rather unusual because of the changing activities of water and mineral precipitation and redissolution. The annual and interannual isotopic variability of these lakes which is reflected in the paleonvironmental indicators may be the rule rather than the exception in these types of systems.

Journal of Paleolimnology↗

An enhanced hydrologic stream network based on the NHDPlus medium resolution dataset

The National Hydrography Dataset Plus, Version 2.1 (NHDPlusV2.1) is an attribute-rich digital stream network for the conterminous United States, serving as a foundational infrastructure for reporting hydrologic information at both regional and national scales. SPAtially Referenced Regressions On Watershed attributes (SPARROW) is a process-based statistical model that relies on a digital hydrologic network like NHDPlusV2.1 to establish spatial relations between quantities of monitored contaminant loads and contaminant sources, accounting for the physical characteristics along flow paths affecting contaminant transport. The U.S. Geological Survey National Water Quality Assessment project adopted and modified the medium-resolution NHDPlusV2.1 network for use as the primary framework supporting SPARROW modeling. This report describes the enhancements made to improve the routing capabilities and the value-added attributes of NHDPlusV2.1 to support modeling and other hydrologic analyses. These enhancements include corrections to inconsistencies in network/routing information, filling in missing attribute values of associated characteristics, accounting of water use affecting flow, new variables useful for interpreting network data, revised flowline attributes such as slope and flow, and incorporation of ancillary spatial data into the network. The resulting dataset containing the enhancements to the network is named E2NHDPlusV2_US. Although the enhancements described in the report were developed for use in SPARROW modeling, the enhancements are expected to be useful for a wide variety of hydrologic studies within the United States.

Conterminous United States↗

Development, Testing, and Application of a Coupled Hydrodynamic Surface-Water/Groundwater Model (FTLOADDS) with Heat and Salinity Transport in the Ten Thousand Islands/Picayune Strand Restoration Project Area, Florida

A numerical model application was developed for the coastal area inland of the Ten Thousand Islands (TTI) in southwestern Florida using the Flow and Transport in a Linked Overland/Aquifer Density-Dependent System (FTLOADDS) model. This model couples a two-dimensional dynamic surface-water model with a three-dimensional groundwater model, and has been applied to several locations in southern Florida. The model application solves equations for salt transport in groundwater and surface water, and also simulates surface-water temperature using a newly enhanced heat transport algorithm. One of the purposes of the TTI application is to simulate hydrologic factors that relate to habitat suitability for the West Indian Manatee. Both salinity and temperature have been shown to be important factors for manatee survival. The inland area of the TTI domain is the location of the Picayune Strand Restoration Project, which is designed to restore predevelopment hydrology through the filling and plugging of canals, construction of spreader channels, and the construction of levees and pump stations. The effects of these changes are simulated to determine their effects on manatee habitat. The TTI application utilizes a large amount of input data for both surface-water and groundwater flow simulations. These data include topography, frictional resistance, atmospheric data including rainfall and air temperature, aquifer properties, and boundary conditions for tidal levels, inflows, groundwater heads, and salinities. Calibration was achieved by adjusting the parameters having the largest uncertainty: surface-water inflows, the surface-water transport dispersion coefficient, and evapotranspiration. A sensitivity analysis did not indicate that further parameter changes would yield an overall improvement in simulation results. The agreement between field data from GPS-tracked manatees and TTI application results demonstrates that the model can predict the salinity and temperature fluctuations which affect manatee behavior. Comparison of the existing conditions simulation with the simulation incorporating restoration changes indicated that the restoration would increase the period of inundation for most of the coastal wetlands. Generally, surface-water salinity was lowered by restoration changes in most of the wetlands areas, especially during the early dry season. However, the opposite pattern was observed in the primary canal habitat for manatees, namely, the Port of the Islands. Salinities at this location tended to be moderately elevated during the dry season, and unchanged during the wet season. Water temperatures were in close agreement between the existing conditions and restoration simulations, although minimum temperatures at the Port of the Islands were slightly higher in the restoration simulation as a result of the additional surface-water ponding and warming that occurs in adjacent wetlands. The TTI application output was used to generate salinity and temperature time series for comparison to manatee field tracking data and an individually-based manatee-behavior model. Overlaying field data with salinity and temperature results from the TTI application reflects the effect of warm water availability and the periodic need for low-salinity drinking water on manatee movements. The manatee-behavior model uses the TTI application data at specific model nodes along the main manatee travel corridors to determine manatee migration patterns. The differences between the existing conditions and restoration scenarios can then be compared for manatee refugia. The TTI application can be used to test a variety of hydrologic conditions and their effect on important criteria.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

Historical physical and chemical data for water in Lake Powell and from Glen Canyon Dam releases, Utah-Arizona, 1964–2013

This report presents the physical and chemical characteristics of water in Lake Powell and from Glen Canyon Dam releases from 1964 through 2013. These data are available in a several electronic formats. Data have been collected throughout this period by various offices of the Bureau of Reclamation and U.S. Geological Survey and are compiled to represent the existing body of chemical and physical information on Lake Powell and Glen Canyon Dam releases. From this record, further interpretation may be made concerning mixing processes in Lake Powell, the movement and fate of advective inflow currents, effects of climate and hydrological variations, and the effects of the operation and structure of Glen Canyon Dam on the quality of water in Lake Powell and from Glen Canyon Dam releases.

Arizona, Utah↗

Physically based estimation of rainfall thresholds triggering shallow landslides in volcanic slopes of southern Italy

On the 4th and 5th of March 2005, about 100 rainfall-induced landslides occurred along volcanic slopes of Camaldoli Hill in Naples, Italy. These started as soil slips in the upper substratum of incoherent and welded volcaniclastic deposits, then evolved downslope according to debris avalanche and debris flow mechanisms. This specific case of slope instability on complex volcaniclastic deposits remains poorly characterized and understood, although similar shallow landsliding phenomena have largely been studied in other peri-volcanic areas of the Campania region underlain by carbonate bedrock. Considering the landslide hazard in this urbanized area, this study focused on quantitatively advancing the understanding of the predisposing factors and hydrological conditions contributing to the initial landslide triggering. Borehole drilling, trial pits, dynamic penetrometer tests, topographic surveys, and infiltration tests were conducted on a slope sector of Camaldoli Hill to develop a geological framework model. Undisturbed soil samples were collected for laboratory testing to further characterize hydraulic and geotechnical properties of the soil units identified. In situ soil pressure head monitoring probes were also installed. A numerical model of two-dimensional variably saturated subsurface water flow was parameterized for the monitored hillslope using field and laboratory data. Based on the observed soil pressure head dynamics, the model was calibrated by adjusting the evapotranspiration parameters. This physically based hydrologic model was combined with an infinite-slope stability analysis to reconstruct the critical unsaturated/saturated conditions leading to slope failure. This coupled hydromechanical numerical model was then used to determine intensity–duration (I-D) thresholds for landslide initiation over a range of plausible rainfall intensities and topographic slope angles for the region. The proposed approach can be conceived as a practicable method for defining a warning criterion in urbanized areas threatened by rainfall-induced shallow landslides, given the unavailability of a consistent inventory of past landslide events that prevents a rigorous empirical analysis.

Water↗

Potentiometric surface of the Edwards-Trinity aquifer system and contiguous hydraulically connected units, west-central Texas, winter, 1974-75

The potentiometric surface of the Edwards-Trinity aquifer system and contiguous hydraulically connected units (from December 1974 through February 1975) was mapped as part of the Edwards-Trinity Regional Aquifer-System Analysis (RASA) project. A major goal of the Edwards-Trinity RASA project is to understand and describe the regional flow system (Bush, 1986). The development of a digital ground-water flow model of the aquifer system is a key part of the project. This potentiometric map will be used in the calibration of the ground-water flow model and in understanding ground-water movement in the aquifer system. The map depicts the potentiometric surface of the major aquifers of the Edwards-Trinity aquifer system and contiguous units that form a continuous hydraulically connected regional aquifer within the study area in west-central Texas (fig. 1). The potentiometric surface of an aquifer is an imaginary surface defined by contouring locations of equal static head (the altitude to which water will rise in a well). The potentiometric surface map shows the direction of ground-water flow from higher to lower altitude. The study area extends beyond the aquifers of the Edwards-Trinity system to hydrologic divides, including the Colorado River and the Rio Grande (fig. 2). The data used to compile this map were obtained from the Texas Natural Resources Information System on magnetic tape and from Rees and Buckner (1980). The winter of 1974-75 (December 1974 through February 1975) was selected for mapping for two reasons: (1) More water-level data were available throughout the study area for this winter season than for other winter seasons, and (2) during winter there is almost no loss of ground water as a result of evaporation, irrigation withdrawals, and transpiration.

Texas↗

Geohydrology and ground-water geochemistry at a sub-arctic landfill, Fairbanks, Alaska

The Fairbanks-North Star Borough, Alaska, landfill is located on silt, sand, and gravel deposits of the Tanana River flood plain, about 3 miles south of the city of Fairbanks water supply wells. The landfill has been in operation for about 25 years in this sub-arctic region of discontinuous permafrost. The cold climate limits biological activity within the landfill with corresponding low gas and leachate production. Chloride concentrations, specific conductance, water temperature, and earth conductivity measurements indicate a small plume of leachate flowing to the northwest from the landfill. The leachate remains near the water table as it flows northwestward toward a drainage ditch. Results of computer modeling of this local hydrologic system indicate that some of the leachate may be discharging to the ditch. Chemical data show that higher-than-background concentrations of several ions are present in the plume. However, the concentrations appear to be reduced to background levels within a short distance along the path of groundwater flow from the landfill, and thus the leachate is not expected to affect the water supply wells. (USGS)

Water-Resources Investigations Report↗

Statistical analysis and mapping of water levels in the Biscayne aquifer, water conservation areas, and Everglades National Park, Miami-Dade County, Florida, 2000–2009

Statistical analyses and maps representing mean, high, and low water-level conditions in the surface water and groundwater of Miami-Dade County were made by the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Miami-Dade County Department of Regulatory and Economic Resources, to help inform decisions necessary for urban planning and development. Sixteen maps were created that show contours of (1) the mean of daily water levels at each site during October and May for the 2000–2009 water years; (2) the 25th, 50th, and 75th percentiles of the daily water levels at each site during October and May and for all months during 2000–2009; and (3) the differences between mean October and May water levels, as well as the differences in the percentiles of water levels for all months, between 1990–1999 and 2000–2009. The 80th, 90th, and 96th percentiles of the annual maximums of daily groundwater levels during 1974–2009 (a 35-year period) were computed to provide an indication of unusually high groundwater-level conditions. These maps and statistics provide a generalized understanding of the variations of water levels in the aquifer, rather than a survey of concurrent water levels. Water-level measurements from 473 sites in Miami-Dade County and surrounding counties were analyzed to generate statistical analyses. The monitored water levels included surface-water levels in canals and wetland areas and groundwater levels in the Biscayne aquifer. Maps were created by importing site coordinates, summary water-level statistics, and completeness of record statistics into a geographic information system, and by interpolating between water levels at monitoring sites in the canals and water levels along the coastline. Raster surfaces were created from these data by using the triangular irregular network interpolation method. The raster surfaces were contoured by using geographic information system software. These contours were imprecise in some areas because the software could not fully evaluate the hydrology given available information; therefore, contours were manually modified where necessary. The ability to evaluate differences in water levels between 1990–1999 and 2000–2009 is limited in some areas because most of the monitoring sites did not have 80 percent complete records for one or both of these periods. The quality of the analyses was limited by (1) deficiencies in spatial coverage; (2) the combination of pre- and post-construction water levels in areas where canals, levees, retention basins, detention basins, or water-control structures were installed or removed; (3) an inability to address the potential effects of the vertical hydraulic head gradient on water levels in wells of different depths; and (4) an inability to correct for the differences between daily water-level statistics. Contours are dashed in areas where the locations of contours have been approximated because of the uncertainty caused by these limitations. Although the ability of the maps to depict differences in water levels between 1990–1999 and 2000–2009 was limited by missing data, results indicate that near the coast water levels were generally higher in May during 2000–2009 than during 1990–1999; and that inland water levels were generally lower during 2000–2009 than during 1990–1999. Generally, the 25th, 50th, and 75th percentiles of water levels from all months were also higher near the coast and lower inland during 2000–2009 than during 1990–1999. Mean October water levels during 2000–2009 were generally higher than during 1990–1999 in much of western Miami-Dade County, but were lower in a large part of eastern Miami-Dade County.

Florida↗

Lake levels and water quality in comparison to fish mercury body burdens, Voyageurs National Park, Minnesota, 2013–15

Within Voyageurs National Park in Minnesota, lake levels are controlled by a series of dams to support a variety of uses. Previous research indicates a link between these artificially maintained water levels, referred to as rule curves, and mercury concentrations in fish owing to the drying and rewetting of wetlands and other nearshore areas, which may release methylmercury into the water when inundated. The U.S. Geological Survey, National Park Service, and University of Wisconsin-La Crosse cooperated in a study to assess the importance of lake-level fluctuation and other factors affecting mercury concentrations in Perca flavescens (yellow perch) in the lakes of Voyageurs National Park. For this study, mercury body burdens were determined for young-of-the-year yellow perch collected from the large lakes within Voyageurs National Park during 2013–15. These mercury body burdens were compared to lake levels and water-quality constituents from the same period. Field properties and profiles of lake water quality indicated that Sand Point, Little Vermilion, and Crane Lakes were anoxic at times near the lake bottom sediments, where sulfate-reducing bacteria may convert mercury to methylmercury. The median dissolved sulfate concentration was highest in Crane Lake, the median total organic carbon concentration was highest in Sand Point Lake, and the median total phosphorus concentration was highest in Kabetogama Lake, all of which is consistent with previous research. All lakes had median chlorophyll a concentrations of 3.6 micrograms per liter or less with the exception of Kabetogama Lake, where the median concentrations were 4.3 micrograms per liter for the midlake sites and 7.1 micrograms per liter and 9.0 micrograms per liter for the nearshore sites. Mercury concentrations in sampled fish varied widely between years and among lakes, from 14.7 nanograms per gram in fish samples from Kabetogama Lake in 2015 to 178 nanograms per gram in fish samples from Crane Lake in 2014. Data from this study can be combined with ongoing hydrologic modeling studies to evaluate trends in the mercury body burden of fish and different water-level management scenarios prescribed by the 2000 Rule Curves and the 1970 Rule Curves.

Minnesota↗

Nutrient processes at the stream-lake interface for a channelized versus unmodified stream mouth

Inorganic forms of nitrogen and phosphorous impact freshwater lakes by stimulating primary production and affecting water quality and ecosystem health. Communities around the world are motivated to sustain and restore freshwater resources and are interested in processes controlling nutrient inputs. We studied the environment where streams flow into lakes, referred to as the stream-lake interface (SLI), for a channelized and unmodified stream outlet. Channelization is done to protect infrastructure or recreational beach areas. We collected hydraulic and nutrient data for surface water and shallow groundwater in two SLIs to develop conceptual models that describe characteristics that are representative of these hydrologic features. Water, heat, and solute transport models were used to evaluate hydrologic conceptualizations and estimate mean residence times of water in the sediment. A nutrient mass balance model is developed to estimate net rates of adsorption and desorption, mineralization, and nitrification along subsurface flow paths. Results indicate that SLIs are dynamic sources of nutrients to lakes and that the common practice of channelizing the stream at the SLI decreases nutrient concentrations in pore water discharging along the lakeshore. This is in contrast to the unmodified SLI that forms a barrier beach that disconnects the stream from the lake and results in higher nutrient concentrations in pore water discharging to the lake. These results are significant because nutrient delivery through pore water seepage at the lakebed from the natural SLI contributes to nearshore algal communities and produces elevated concentrations of inorganic nutrients in the benthic zone where attached algae grow.

Water Resources Research↗

The influence of data characteristics on detecting wetland/stream surface-water connections in the Delmarva Peninsula, Maryland and Delaware

The dependence of downstream waters on upstream ecosystems necessitates an improved understanding of watershed-scale hydrological interactions including connections between wetlands and streams. An evaluation of such connections is challenging when, (1) accurate and complete datasets of wetland and stream locations are often not available and (2) natural variability in surface-water extent influences the frequency and duration of wetland/stream connectivity. The Upper Choptank River watershed on the Delmarva Peninsula in eastern Maryland and Delaware is dominated by a high density of small, forested wetlands. In this analysis, wetland/stream surface water connections were quantified using multiple wetland and stream datasets, including headwater streams and depressions mapped from a lidar-derived digital elevation model. Surface-water extent was mapped across the watershed for spring 2015 using Landsat-8, Radarsat-2 and Worldview-3 imagery. The frequency of wetland/stream connections increased as a more complete and accurate stream dataset was used and surface-water extent was included, in particular when the spatial resolution of the imagery was finer (i.e., <10 m). Depending on the datasets used, 12–60% of wetlands by count (21–93% of wetlands by area) experienced surface-water interactions with streams during spring 2015. This translated into a range of 50–94% of the watershed contributing direct surface water runoff to streamflow. This finding suggests that our interpretation of the frequency and duration of wetland/stream connections will be influenced not only by the spatial and temporal characteristics of wetlands, streams and potential flowpaths, but also by the completeness, accuracy and resolution of input datasets.

Delaware, Maryland↗

Legacy effects of hydrologic alteration in playa wetland responses to droughts

Wetland conservation increasingly must account for climate change and legacies of previous land-use practices. Playa wetlands provide critical wildlife habitat, but may be impacted by intensifying droughts and previous hydrologic modifications. To inform playa restoration planning, we asked: (1) what are the trends in playa inundation? (2) what are the factors influencing inundation? (3) how is playa inundation affected by increasingly severe drought? (4) do certain playas provide hydrologic refugia during droughts, and (5) if so, how are refugia patterns related to historical modifications? Using remotely sensed surface-water data, we evaluated a 30-year time series (1985–2015) of inundation for 153 playas of the Great Basin, USA. Inundation likelihood and duration increased with wetter weather conditions and were greater in modified playas. Inundation probability was projected to decrease from 22% under average conditions to 11% under extreme drought, with respective annual inundation decreasing from 1.7 to 0.9 months. Only 4% of playas were inundated for at least 2 months in each of the 5 driest years, suggesting their potential as drought refugia. Refugial playas were larger and more likely to have been modified, possibly because previous land managers selected refugial playas for modification. These inundation patterns can inform efforts to restore wetland functions and to conserve playa habitats as climate conditions change.

Nevada, Oregon↗

Evaluation of and insights from ALFISH: a spatially explicit landscape-level simulation of fish populations in the Everglades

We present an evaluation of a spatially explicit, age-structured model created to assess fish density dynamics in the Florida Everglades area. This model, ALFISH, has been used to compare alternative management scenarios for the Florida Everglades region. This area is characterized by periodic dry downs and refloodings. ALFISH uses spatially explicit water depth data to predict patterns of fish density. Here we present a method for calibration of ALFISH, based on information concerning fish movement, pond locations and other field data. With the current information, the greatest coefficient of determination achieved from regressions of ALFISH output to field data is 0.35 for fish density and 0.88 for water depth. The poor predictability of fish density mirrors the empirical findings that hydrology, which is the main driver of the model, only accounts for 20&ndash;40% of the variance of fish densities across the Everglades landscape. Sensitivity analyses indicate that fish in this system are very sensitive to frequency, size and location of permanent ponds as well as availability of prey.

Florida↗

Response of Everglades tree islands to environmental change

Tree islands are centers of biodiversity within the Florida Everglades, USA, but the factors controlling their distribution, formation, and development are poorly understood. We use pollen assemblages from tree islands throughout the greater Everglades ecosystem to reconstruct the timing of tree island formation, patterns of development, and response to specific climatic and environmental stressors. These data indicate that fixed (teardrop-shaped) and strand tree islands developed well before substantial human alteration of the system, with initial tree island vegetation in place between 3500 and 500 calibrated years before present (cal yr BP), depending on the location in the Everglades wetland. Tree island development appears to have been triggered by regional- to global-scale climatic events at 2800 cal yr BP, 1600–1500 cal yr BP, 1200–1000 cal yr BP (early Medieval Warm Period), and 500–200 cal yr BP (Little Ice Age). These periods correspond to drought intervals documented in Central and South America and periods of southward displacement of the Intertropical Convergence Zone. The records indicate a coherence of climate patterns in both subtropical North America and the Northern Hemisphere Neotropics. Water management practices of the 20th century altered plant communities and size of tree islands throughout the Everglades. Responses range from loss of tree islands due to artificially long hydroperiods and deep water to expansion of tree islands after flow reductions. These data provide evidence for the rapidity of tree island response to specific hydrologic change and facilitate prediction of the response to future changes associated with Everglades restoration plans.

Florida↗

Hydrology of the San Luis Valley, south-central Colorado

An investigation of the water resources of the Colorado part of the San Luis Valley was begun in 1966 by the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Colorado Water Conservation Board. (See index map, fig. 1). The purpose of the investigation is to provide information for planning and implementing improved water-development and management practices. The major water problems in the San Luis Valley include (1) waterlogging, (2) waste of water by nonbeneficial evapotranspiration, (3) deterioration of ground-water chemical quality, and (4) failure of Colorado to deliver water to New Mexico and Texas in accordance with the Rio Grande Compact. This report describes the hydrologic environment, extent of water-resource development, and some of the problems related to that development. Information presented is based on data collected from 1966 to 1968 and on previous studies. Subsequent reports are planned as the investigation progresses. The San Luis Valley extends about 100 miles from Poncha Pass near the northeast corner of Saguache County, Colo., to a point about 16 miles south of the Colorado-New Mexico State line. The total area is 3,125 square miles, of which about 3,000 are in Colorado. The valley is nearly flat except for the San Luis Hills and a few other small areas. The Colorado part of the San Luis Valley, which is described in this report, has an average altitude of about 7,700 feet. Bounding the valley on the west are the San Juan Mountains and on the east the Sangre de Cristo Mountains. Most of the valley floor is bordered by alluvial fans deposited by streams originating in the mountains, the most extensive being the Rio Grande fan (see block diagram, fig. 2 in pocket). Most of the streamflow is derived from snowmelt from 4,700 square miles of watershed in the surrounding mountains. The northern half of the San Luis Valley is internally drained and is referred to as the closed basin. The lowest part of this area is known locally as the "sump." The remainder of the valley is drained by the Rio Grande and its tributaries. The climate of the San Luis Valley is arid, and a successful agricultural economy would not be possible without irrigation. It is characterized by cold winters, moderate summers, and much sunshine. The average annual precipitation on the valley floor ranges from 7 to 10 inches. More than half the precipitation occurs from July to September. Moisture deficiency in the valley is shown by the graph comparing pan evaporation and precipitation {fig. 3}. For the years 1961-67 average pan evaporation for the period April through September was 52.25 inches, but average precipitation for the period was only 5.02 inches. Average annual precipitation was 7.8 inches. Owing to the short growing season (90-120 days), crops a.re restricted mainly to barley, oats, potatoes, and other vegetables.

Colorado↗

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