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USGS2013

A spatial age-structured model for describing sea lamprey ( Petromyzon marinus ) population dynamics

The control of invasive sea lampreys ( Petromyzon marinus ) presents large scale management challenges in the Laurentian Great Lakes. No modeling approach has been developed that describes spatial dynamics of lamprey populations. We developed and validated a spatial and age-structured model and applied it to a sea lamprey population in a large river in the Great Lakes basin. We considered 75 discrete spatial areas, included a stock-recruitment function, spatial recruitment patterns, natural mortality, chemical treatment mortality, and larval metamorphosis. Recruitment was variable, and an upstream shift in recruitment location was observed over time. From 1993–2011 recruitment, larval abundance, and the abundance of metamorphosing individuals decreased by 80, 84, and 86%, respectively. The model successfully identified areas of high larval abundance and showed that areas of low larval density contribute significantly to the population. Estimated treatment mortality was less than expected but had a large population-level impact. The results and general approach of this work have applications for sea lamprey control throughout the Great Lakes and for the restoration and conservation of native lamprey species globally.

Great Lakes↗

USGS2025

Benthic habitat map of Olowalu Reef, Maui, Hawaii—Geomorphological structure, biological cover, and geologic zonation determined with spectral, lidar, and acoustic data

The fringing coral reef off Olowalu, Maui, Hawaii, has been identified as a local conservation priority site. In 2007, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) produced a benthic habitat map of the Hawaiian Islands that was used as a foundation for this study. To support place-based management of the reef in the future, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) mapped the geologic zone, major and dominant geomorphological structure, biological cover type, and percent of biological cover for 11 square kilometers (km 2 ) of Olowalu Reef at a minimum mapping unit (MMU) of 100 square meters (m 2 ) to create a benthic habitat map. Heads-up digitization was employed on 0.50-meter (m) natural color satellite orthoimagery with ancillary 1-m acoustic backscatter imagery from single-scan sonar (sound navigation and ranging). A 1-m, 4-m, and 8-m digital bathymetric model (DBM) was interpolated from bathymetric lidar (light detection and ranging), and various geomorphometric layers derived from the DBMs were used for habitat interpretation. Still-frame imagery of the seafloor extracted from vessel-towed underwater video transects on Olowalu Reef served as ground validation points ( n =870) during active mapping and accuracy assessment points ( n =216) for thematic accuracy assessment. Thematic accuracy was cross-validated by the Hawai‘i Department of Land and Natural Resources Division of Aquatic Resources. Final thematic accuracy was 88.8 percent for major structure, 85.6 percent for dominant structure, 86.0 percent for major biological cover, and 78.6 percent for type and percent of major biological cover. Reef and hardbottom constituted 52 percent of the total mapped habitat, comprising mostly aggregate reef (31 percent) and pavement (11 percent), with large swaths of spur-and-groove (9 percent). Of this hardbottom, 17 percent was covered with moderate (10 to <50 percent) coral and 27 percent with high coral cover (50 to <90 percent). High (50 to <90 percent) macroalgae cover dominated the continuous sand sheets in offshore bank/shelf zones. The map created in this study supplements the NOAA 2007 map and expands on the observations made by USGS sampling of the reef. The NOAA 2007 map and our map differed in total areal extent by a negligible 6 m 2 and were in general thematic agreement. Our map is intended to serve as a baseline for public access, general research, local-level management, and reef change for future studies.

Hawaii↗

USGS2010

The use of scenario analysis to assess water ecosystem services in response to future land use change in the Willamette River Basin, Oregon

Human pressures on the natural resources of the United States have resulted in many unintended changes in our ecosystems, e.g., loss of biodiversity, habitat degradation, increases in the number of endangered species, and increases in contamination and water pollution. Environmental managers are concerned about broad-scale changes in land use and landscape pattern and their cumulative impact on hydrologic and ecological processes that affect stream conditions. The type of land use and land cover has direct consequences for most ecosystem services, including water quantity and water quality, erosion control, and biodiversity. As human pressure continues to increase, ecosystem services worldwide are projected to suffer continued loss and degradation, thus reducing the capacity of ecosystems to provide essential goods and services that contribute to human well-being (MEA 2005). The ability to assess, report, and forecast the life support functions of ecosystems is absolutely critical to our capacity to make informed decisions which will maintain the sustainable nature of our environmental services and secure these resources into the future. This study presents an integrated approach to identify areas with potential water quality problems as a result of land cover change projected by stakeholders within a moderately large river basin in the Pacific Northwest (USA). A process-based hydrologic watershed model was used to examine the contribution of land use/land cover to sediment yield, and nitrate and phosphorous loadings, and identify subwatersheds within the Willamette River basin that would be most affected in the year 2050 relative to three possible future scenarios which include inherent differences related to conservation, existing planning trends, and open development. Thus, the objective of this study was to evaluate the effects of alternative future scenarios that describe varying degrees of urban development and human use on hydrological response related to water quality. Results of this study suggest that the amount of forest along streams and agriculture consistently explained a high percentage of variation in nutrients. The AGWA-SWAT model was used to simulate change in sediment yield, nitrate and phosphorus transported with surface runoff for the three future scenarios. With regard to nitrate, the greatest increase was associated with subwatersheds with agricultural land use and urban areas. Although the model predicted some improvement in basin headwaters for all scenarios, nitrate loadings are expected to decrease under the conservation scenario. The largest decrease was observed in the Coast Range. With regard to phosphorous loadings, the lowest reduction was observed in subwatersheds draining predominantly forest areas. The greatest increase was observed under the open development scenario in subwatersheds with agricultural land use. Urbanization and agriculture are presumed to be the major environmental stressors affecting watershed condition of the Willamette River Basin.

Oregon↗

USGS1982

Dams, reservoirs, and withdrawals for water supply; historic trends

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) from time to time has published an inventory of major reservoirs and controlled natural lakes. The latest available USGS report indicated that as of 1963, usable capacity in major reservoirs (those having 5 ,000 acre-ft of usable capacity) totaled 359 million acre-ft. The growth rate for total capacity averaged about 80%/decade until the early 1960's. Since then, reservoir capacity has increased at a markedly slower rate, the effects of approaching an asymptotic limit on capacity in some areas, compounded, by increasing public aversion toward reservoir construction. The trend toward non-structural measures places greater dependence on management skill and on better forecasts. At some point, the potentials of conservation and better management will become less effective than reservoirs and there will again be an upward trend in reservoir capacity. (Lantz-PTT)

Open-File Report↗

USGS2004

Mercury and Methylmercury concentrations and loads in Cache Creek Basin, California, January 2000 through May 2001

Concentrations and mass loads of total mercury and methylmercury in streams draining abandoned mercury mines and near geothermal discharge in Cache Creek Basin, California, were measured during a 17-month period from January 2000 through May 2001. Rainfall and runoff averages during the study period were lower than long-term averages. Mass loads of mercury and methylmercury from upstream sources to downstream receiving waters, such as San Francisco Bay, were generally the highest during or after winter rainfall events. During the study period, mass loads of mercury and methylmercury from geothermal sources tended to be greater than those from abandoned mining areas because of a lack of large precipitation events capable of mobilizing significant amounts of either mercury-laden sediment or dissolved mercury and methylmercury from mine waste. Streambed sediments of Cache Creek are a source of mercury and methylmercury to downstream receiving bodies of water such as the Delta of the San Joaquin and Sacramento Rivers. Much of the mercury in these sediments was deposited over the last 150 years by erosion and stream discharge from abandoned mines or by continuous discharges from geothermal areas. Several geochemical constituents were useful as natural tracers for mining and geothermal areas. These constituents included aqueous concentrations of boron, chloride, lithium, and sulfate, and the stable isotopes of hydrogen and oxygen in water. Stable isotopes of water in areas draining geothermal discharges were enriched with more oxygen-18 relative to oxygen-16 than meteoric waters, whereas the enrichment by stable isotopes of water from much of the runoff from abandoned mines was similar to that of meteoric water. Geochemical signatures from stable isotopes and trace-element concentrations may be useful as tracers of total mercury or methylmercury from specific locations; however, mercury and methylmercury are not conservatively transported. A distinct mixing trend of trace elements and stable isotopes of hydrogen and oxygen from geothermal waters was apparent in Sulphur Creek and lower Bear Creek (tributaries to Cache Creek), but the signals are lost upon mixing with Cache Creek because of dilution.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

USGS2004

Hydrologic, soil, and vegetation gradients in remnant and constructed riparian wetlands in west-central Missouri, 2001-04

A study was conducted by the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the Missouri Department of Conservation at the Four Rivers Conservation Area (west-central Missouri), between January 2001 and March 2004, to examine the relations between environmental factors (hydrology, soils, elevation, and landform type) and the spatial distribution of vegetation in remnant and constructed riparian wetlands. Vegetation characterization included species composition of ground, understory, and overstory layers in selected landforms of a remnant bottomland hardwood ecosystem, monitoring survival and growth of reforestation plots in leveed and partially leveed constructed wetlands, and determining gradients in colonization of herbaceous vegetation in a constructed wetland. Similar environmental factors accounted for variation in the distribution of ground, understory, and overstory vegetation in the remnant bottomland forest plots. The primary measured determining factors in the distribution of vegetation in the ground layer were elevation, soil texture (clay and silt content), flooding inundation duration, and ponding duration, while the distribution of vegetation in the understory layer was described by elevation, soil texture (clay, silt, and sand content), total flooding and ponding inundation duration, and distance from the Marmaton or Little Osage River. The primary measured determining factors in the distribution of overstory vegetation in Unit 1 were elevation, soil texture (clay, silt, and sand content), total flooding and ponding inundation duration, ponding duration, and to some extent, flooding inundation duration. Overall, the composition and structure of the remnant bottomland forest is indicative of a healthy, relatively undisturbed flood plain forest. Dominant species have a distribution of individuals that shows regeneration of these species with significant recruitment in the smaller size classes. The bottomland forest is an area whose overall hydrology has not been significantly altered; however, portions of the area have suffered from hydrologic alteration by a drainage ditch that is resulting in the displacement of swamp and marsh species by colonizing shrub and tree species. This area likely will continue to develop into an immature flood plain forest under the current (2004) hydrologic regime. Reforestation plots in constructed wetlands consisted of sampling survival and growth of multiple tree species (Quercus palustris, pin oak; Carya illinoiensis, pecan) established under several production methods and planted at multiple elevations. Comparison of survival between tree species and production types showed no significant differences for all comparisons. Survival was high for both species and all production types, with the highest mortality seen in the mounded root production method (RPM®) Quercus palustris (pin oak, 6.9 percent), while direct seeded Quercus palustris at middle elevation and bare root Quercus palustris seedlings at the low elevation plots had 100 percent survival. Measures of growth (diameter and height) were assessed among species, production types, and elevation by analyzing relative growth. The greatest rate of tree diameter (72.3 percent) and height (65.3 percent) growth was observed for direct seeded Quercus palustris trees planted at a middle elevation site. Natural colonized vegetation data were collected at multiple elevations within an abandoned cropland area of a constructed wetland. The primary measured determining factors in the distribution of herbaceous vegetation in this area were elevation, ponding duration, and soil texture. Richness, evenness, and diversity were all significantly greater in the highest elevation plots as a result of more recent disturbance in this area. While flood frequency and duration define the delivery mechanism for inundation on the flood plain, it is the duration of ponding and amount of “topographic capture” of these floodwaters in fluvial landforms that largely determines the survivability and distribution of tree species in both remnant and constructed wetlands. Ponding, flooding, ground-water levels, and precipitation all accounted for saturated conditions in the upper soil profiles in the Four Rivers Conservation Area monitoring sites. Of these processes, ponding and flooding were the primary factors accounting for soil saturation conditions. The identification of landform features in undisturbed settings, therefore, can be an important aide in predicting the sustainable spatial distribution of various plant species in riparian revegetation projects.

Missouri↗

USGS2014

Hydrologic Drought Decision Support System (HyDroDSS)

The hydrologic drought decision support system (HyDroDSS) was developed by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) in cooperation with the Rhode Island Water Resources Board (RIWRB) for use in the analysis of hydrologic variables that may indicate the risk for streamflows to be below user-defined flow targets at a designated site of interest, which is defined herein as data-collection site on a stream that may be adversely affected by pumping. Hydrologic drought is defined for this study as a period of lower than normal streamflows caused by precipitation deficits and (or) water withdrawals. The HyDroDSS is designed to provide water managers with risk-based information for balancing water-supply needs and aquatic-habitat protection goals to mitigate potential effects of hydrologic drought. This report describes the theory and methods for retrospective streamflow-depletion analysis, rank correlation analysis, and drought-projection analysis. All three methods are designed to inform decisions made by drought steering committees and decisionmakers on the basis of quantitative risk assessment. All three methods use estimates of unaltered streamflow, which is the measured or modeled flow without major withdrawals or discharges, to approximate a natural low-flow regime. Retrospective streamflow-depletion analysis can be used by water-resource managers to evaluate relations between withdrawal plans and the potential effects of withdrawal plans on streams at one or more sites of interest in an area. Retrospective streamflow-depletion analysis indicates the historical risk of being below user-defined flow targets if different pumping plans were implemented for the period of record. Retrospective streamflow-depletion analysis also indicates the risk for creating hydrologic drought conditions caused by use of a pumping plan. Retrospective streamflow-depletion analysis is done by calculating the net streamflow depletions from withdrawals and discharges and applying these depletions to a simulated record of unaltered streamflow. Rank correlation analysis in the HyDroDSS indicates the persistence of hydrologic measurements from month to month for the prediction of developing hydrologic drought conditions and quantitatively indicates which hydrologic variables may be used to indicate the onset of hydrologic drought conditions. Rank correlation analysis also indicates the potential use of each variable for estimating the monthly minimum unaltered flow at a site of interest for use in the drought-projection analysis. Rank correlation analysis in the HyDroDSS is done by calculating Spearman’s rho for paired samples and the 95-percent confidence limits of this rho value. Rank correlation analysis can be done by using precipitation, groundwater levels, measured streamflows, and estimated unaltered streamflows. Serial correlation analysis, which indicates relations between current and future values, can be done for a single site. Cross correlation analysis, which indicates relations among current values at one site and current and future values at a second site, also can be done. Drought-projection analysis in the HyDroDSS indicates the risk for being in a hydrologic drought condition during the current month and the five following months with and without pumping. Drought-projection analysis also indicates the potential effectiveness of water-conservation methods for mitigating the effect of withdrawals in the coming months on the basis of the amount of depletion caused by different pumping plans and on the risk of unaltered flows being below streamflow targets. Drought-projection analysis in the HyDroDSS is done with Monte Carlo methods by using the position analysis method. In this method the initial value of estimated unaltered streamflows is calculated by correlation to a measured hydrologic variable (monthly precipitation, groundwater levels, or streamflows from an index station identified with the rank correlation analysis). Then a pseudorandom number generator is used to create 251 six-month-long flow traces by using a bootstrap method. Serial correlation of the estimated unaltered monthly minimum streamflows determined from the rank correlation analysis is preserved within each flow trace. The sample of unaltered streamflows indicates the risk of being below flow targets in the coming months under simulated natural conditions (without historic withdrawals). The streamflow-depletion algorithms are then used to estimate risks of flow being below targets if selected pumping plans are used. This report also describes the implementation of the HyDroDSS. The HyDroDSS was developed as a Microsoft Access® database application to facilitate storage, handling, and use of hydrologic datasets with a simple graphical user interface. The program is implemented in the database by using the Visual Basic for Applications® (VBA) programming language. Program source code for the analytical techniques is provided in the HyDroDSS and in electronic text files accompanying this report. Program source code for the graphical user interface and for data-handling code, which is specific to Microsoft Access® and the HyDroDSS, is provided in the database. An installation package with a run-time version of the software is available with this report for potential users who do not have a compatible copy of Microsoft Access®. Administrative rights are needed to install this version of the HyDroDSS. A case study, to demonstrate the use of HyDroDSS and interpretation of results for a site of interest, is detailed for the USGS streamgage on the Hunt River (station 01117000) near East Greenwich in central Rhode Island. The Hunt River streamgage was used because it has a long record of streamflow and is in a well-studied basin with a substantial amount of hydrologic and water-use data including groundwater pumping for municipal water supply.

Rhode Island↗

USGS2022

Managing multiple species with conflicting needs in the Greater Everglades

Given limited funding, natural resources decision making is riddled with tradeoffs, including which species or landscapes to prioritize for management action. Florida’s Everglades wetland is home to numerous indicator species, some of which are endangered. But with a multitude of species comes differing hydrologic requirements to yield appropriate foraging and breeding conditions for each. The Everglades ecosystem is highly managed, with water being moved across the landscape to meet the habitat and reproductive needs of species of concern. Predictive modeling can help water managers understand potential consequences to targeted water conditions. EverForecast is a novel spatially explicit, hydrologic, and ecological operational forecast developed to inform conservation management decisions. Not only does EverForecast provide probable near-term water conditions, but also predicted species responses to those hydrologic conditions. Using examples from two focal regions of the Everglades, we show the magnitude of impacts to a suite of species and an almost 70% decline in suitable conditions for one species when prioritizing water management to meet the needs of another species. Although EverForecast is a relatively new decision support tool, its hydrologic outputs are already commonly used to make water management recommendations because it provides near-term hydrologic forecasts that scientists and managers need for water operations decision making. Because species management decisions have historically been made to target a single species at a time, it may take longer for full utility of EverForecast’s ability to quantify tradeoffs among species to become integrated into decision making.

Florida↗

USGS2011

Multimodel inference and adaptive management

Ecology is an inherently complex science coping with correlated variables, nonlinear interactions and multiple scales of pattern and process, making it difficult for experiments to result in clear, strong inference. Natural resource managers, policy makers, and stakeholders rely on science to provide timely and accurate management recommendations. However, the time necessary to untangle the complexities of interactions within ecosystems is often far greater than the time available to make management decisions. One method of coping with this problem is multimodel inference. Multimodel inference assesses uncertainty by calculating likelihoods among multiple competing hypotheses, but multimodel inference results are often equivocal. Despite this, there may be pressure for ecologists to provide management recommendations regardless of the strength of their study’s inference. We reviewed papers in the Journal of Wildlife Management (JWM) and the journal Conservation Biology (CB) to quantify the prevalence of multimodel inference approaches, the resulting inference (weak versus strong), and how authors dealt with the uncertainty. Thirty-eight percent and 14%, respectively, of articles in the JWM and CB used multimodel inference approaches. Strong inference was rarely observed, with only 7% of JWM and 20% of CB articles resulting in strong inference. We found the majority of weak inference papers in both journals (59%) gave specific management recommendations. Model selection uncertainty was ignored in most recommendations for management. We suggest that adaptive management is an ideal method to resolve uncertainty when research results in weak inference.

Journal of Environmental Management↗

USGS2014

Area- and depth- weighted averages of selected SSURGO variables for the conterminous United States and District of Columbia

This digital data release consists of seven data files of soil attributes for the United States and the District of Columbia. The files are derived from National Resources Conservations Service’s (NRCS) Soil Survey Geographic database (SSURGO). The data files can be linked to the raster datasets of soil mapping unit identifiers (MUKEY) available through the NRCS’s Gridded Soil Survey Geographic (gSSURGO) database ( http://www.nrcs.usda.gov/wps/portal/nrcs/detail/soils/survey/geo/?cid=nrcs142p2_053628 ). The associated files, named DRAINAGECLASS, HYDRATING, HYDGRP, HYDRICCONDITION, LAYER, TEXT, and WTDEP are area- and depth-weighted average values for selected soil characteristics from the SSURGO database for the conterminous United States and the District of Columbia. The SSURGO tables were acquired from the NRCS on March 5, 2014. The soil characteristics in the DRAINAGE table are drainage class (DRNCLASS), which identifies the natural drainage conditions of the soil and refers to the frequency and duration of wet periods. The soil characteristics in the HYDRATING table are hydric rating (HYDRATE), a yes/no field that indicates whether or not a map unit component is classified as a "hydric soil". The soil characteristics in the HYDGRP table are the percentages for each hydrologic group per MUKEY. The soil characteristics in the HYDRICCONDITION table are hydric condition (HYDCON), which describes the natural condition of the soil component. The soil characteristics in the LAYER table are available water capacity (AVG_AWC), bulk density (AVG_BD), saturated hydraulic conductivity (AVG_KSAT), vertical saturated hydraulic conductivity (AVG_KV), soil erodibility factor (AVG_KFACT), porosity (AVG_POR), field capacity (AVG_FC), the soil fraction passing a number 4 sieve (AVG_NO4), the soil fraction passing a number 10 sieve (AVG_NO10), the soil fraction passing a number 200 sieve (AVG_NO200), and organic matter (AVG_OM). The soil characteristics in the TEXT table are percent sand, silt, and clay (AVG_SAND, AVG_SILT, and AVG_CLAY). The soil characteristics in the WTDEP table are the annual minimum water table depth (WTDEP_MIN), available water storage in the 0-25 cm soil horizon (AWS025), the minimum water table depth for the months April, May and June (WTDEPAMJ), the available water storage in the first 25 centimeters of the soil horizon (AWS25), the dominant drainage class (DRCLSD), the wettest drainage class (DRCLSWET), and the hydric classification (HYDCLASS), which is an indication of the proportion of the map unit, expressed as a class, that is "hydric", based on the hydric classification of a given MUKEY. (See Entity_Description for more detail). The tables were created with a set of arc macro language (aml) and awk (awk was created at Bell Labsin the 1970s and its name is derived from the first letters of the last names of its authors – Alfred Aho, Peter Weinberger, and Brian Kernighan) scripts. Send an email to mewieczo@usgs.gov to obtain copies of the computer code (See Process_Description.) The methods used are outlined in NRCS's "SSURGO Data Packaging and Use" (NRCS, 2011). The tables can be related or joined to the gSSURGO rasters of MUKEYs by the item 'MUKEY.' Joining or relating the tables to a MUKEY grid allows the creation of grids of area- and depth-weighted soil characteristics. A 90-meter raster of MUKEYs is provided which can be used to produce rasters of soil attributes. More detailed resolution rasters are available through NRCS via the link above.

Data Series↗

USGS1996

Measuring and monitoring biological diversity: Standard methods for mammals

Measuring and Monitoring Biological Diversity: Standard Methods for Mammals provides a comprehensive manual for designing and implementing inventories of mammalian biodiversity anywhere in the world and for any group, from rodents to open-country grazers. The book emphasizes formal estimation approaches, which supply data that can be compared across habitats and over time. Beginning with brief natural histories of the twenty-six orders of living mammals, the book details the field techniques—observation, capture, and sign interpretation—appropriate to different species. The contributors provide guidelines for study design, discuss survey planning, describe statistical techniques, and outline methods of translating field data into electronic formats. Extensive appendixes address such issues as the ethical treatment of animals in research, human health concerns, preserving voucher specimens, and assessing age, sex, and reproductive condition in mammals. Useful in both developed and developing countries, this volume and the Biological Diversity Handbook Series as a whole establish essential standards for a key aspect of conservation biology and resource management.

Book↗

USGS1992

Biological diversity of a temporary pond herpetofauna in north Florida sandhills

From 1985 through 1990, the herpetofauna of a temporary pond in an uplands longleaf pine sandhills community in north-central Florida was monitored. A drift fence completely encircled the pond. Animals were captured in pitfall traps and marked as they entered and exited the pond basin. I captured 16 155 individuals of 42 species (16 amphibians, 26 reptiles). The species richness, diversity (using Margalef's Diversity Index) and dominance (using the Berger-Parker Index) varied among years. Between 62.5% and 87.5% of the amphibian species and 65% to 81% of the reptile species were captured in any one year. Daily amphibian capture was positively correlated with rainfall, whereas reptile capture was either not correlated or weakly negatively correlated with rainfall. Hydroperiod duration was not correlated with the numbers of either amphibians or reptiles captured. Neither the amphibian nor the reptile community showed any trends in diversity or dominance indices during the course of the study, although both communities were dominated by a few species. However, the species responsible for community dominance changed somewhat as the study progressed. Assessing the results of this study is hampered by the lack of comparable studies elsewhere, expected natural fluctuations of amphibian populations, and a prolonged drought, especially during the latter stages of the study. The herpetological community at Breezeway Pond does not appear to follow theoretical predictions of community response to stress. Temporary ponds are important centres of herpetofaunal biodiversity in uplands sandhills communities. Long-term studies are needed to monitor the composition, structure, and functional interactions of their resident species.

Biodiversity and Conservation↗

USGS2026

Creating usable science: A Southwest Climate Adaptation Science Center study

The southwestern United States consists of diverse ecosystems that are experiencing increasing pressures from rising temperatures, increasing aridity, and sea level rise. To prepare this region for future uncertainty, there is a need for strong partnerships among researchers and societal partners. The Southwest Climate Adaptation Science Center (SW CASC) acts to foster engaged scholarship from diverse perspectives to produce science relevant for management and policy decisions. Here, we synthesized a subset of SW CASC-funded projects and published manuscripts to illustrate how the combination of new scientific knowledge and the research and practice of engaged scholarship produce actionable science with direct societal impacts. In the SW CASC Contributions to Regional Science section, we touch on new research produced from funded projects on the most common topics: (1) Forest Ecosystems, (2) Coastal Ecosystems, (3) Hydrometeorology, and (4) Research on Engaged Scholarship. In the SW CASC Contributions to Regional Impacts section, we outline engaged scholarship activities to demonstrate how they created societal impacts: (1) the Keepers of the Flame course and workshops, (2) the Southwest Fire Climate Adaptation Partnership and the Southern California Montane Forests Project, (3) the Coastal Managers Workshop, (4) the Colorado River Basin Wiki, and (5) the Natural Resource Workforce Development Program. In the SW CASC Publications Cited in Policy section, we used a bibliometric analysis to assess the impact of the SW CASC-funded research on policy. We analyzed how often publications were used in policy documents, finding a citation rate of 27.6%. This is high compared to similar analyses that found peer-reviewed research articles cited at a rate of 3.9% in policy documents. We conclude that coproduced science makes unique and important contributions to the resilience of the Southwest, not only by generating new knowledge but by building capacity, creating lasting relationships, and informing policy and conservation and management decisions.

Arizona, California, Nevada, Utah↗

USGS2007

A Bayesian state-space formulation of dynamic occupancy models

Species occurrence and its dynamic components, extinction and colonization probabilities, are focal quantities in biogeography and metapopulation biology, and for species conservation assessments. It has been increasingly appreciated that these parameters must be estimated separately from detection probability to avoid the biases induced by nondetection error. Hence, there is now considerable theoretical and practical interest in dynamic occupancy models that contain explicit representations of metapopulation dynamics such as extinction, colonization, and turnover as well as growth rates. We describe a hierarchical parameterization of these models that is analogous to the state-space formulation of models in time series, where the model is represented by two components, one for the partially observable occupancy process and another for the observations conditional on that process. This parameterization naturally allows estimation of all parameters of the conventional approach to occupancy models, but in addition, yields great flexibility and extensibility, e.g., to modeling heterogeneity or latent structure in model parameters. We also highlight the important distinction between population and finite sample inference; the latter yields much more precise estimates for the particular sample at hand. Finite sample estimates can easily be obtained using the state-space representation of the model but are difficult to obtain under the conventional approach of likelihood-based estimation. We use R and Win BUGS to apply the model to two examples. In a standard analysis for the European Crossbill in a large Swiss monitoring program, we fit a model with year-specific parameters. Estimates of the dynamic parameters varied greatly among years, highlighting the irruptive population dynamics of that species. In the second example, we analyze route occupancy of Cerulean Warblers in the North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) using a model allowing for site-specific heterogeneity in model parameters. The results indicate relatively low turnover and a stable distribution of Cerulean Warblers which is in contrast to analyses of counts of individuals from the same survey that indicate important declines. This discrepancy illustrates the inertia in occupancy relative to actual abundance. Furthermore, the model reveals a declining patch survival probability, and increasing turnover, toward the edge of the range of the species, which is consistent with metapopulation perspectives on the genesis of range edges. Given detection/non-detection data, dynamic occupancy models as described here have considerable potential for the study of distributions and range dynamics.

Ecology↗

USGS2006

Hydrostratigraphic Framework of the Raton, Vermejo, and Trinidad Aquifers in the Raton Basin, Las Animas County, Colorado

Exploration for and production of coalbed methane has increased substantially in the Rocky Mountain region of the United States since the 1990s. During 1999-2004, annual production of natural gas (coalbed methane) from the Raton Basin in Las Animas County, Colorado, increased from 28,129,515 to 80,224,130 thousand cubic feet, and the annual volume of ground water coproduced by coalbed methane wells increased from about 949 million gallons to about 2,879 million gallons. Better definition of the hydrostratigraphic framework of the Raton, Vermejo, and Trinidad aquifers in the Raton Basin of southern Colorado is needed to evaluate the long-term effects of coalbed methane development on the availability and sustainability of ground-water resources. In 2001, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Colorado Water Conservation Board, began a study to evaluate the hydrogeology of the Raton Basin in Huerfano and Las Animas Counties, Colorado. Geostatistical methods were used to map the altitude of and depths to the bottoms and tops (structure) and the apparent thicknesses of the Trinidad Sandstone, the Vermejo Formation, and the Raton Formation in Las Animas County, based on completion reports and drillers' logs from about 1,400 coalbed methane wells in the Raton Basin. There was not enough subsurface control to map the structural surfaces and apparent thicknesses of the aquifers in Huerfano County. Geostatistical methods also were used to map the regional water table in the northern part of Las Animas County, based on reported depth to water from completion reports of water-supply wells. Although these maps were developed to better define the hydrostratigraphic framework, they also can be used to determine the contributing aquifer(s) of existing water wells and to estimate drilling depths of proposed water wells. These maps of the hydrostratigraphic framework could be improved with the addition of measured sections and mapping of geologic contacts at outcrops along the eastern and western margins of the Raton Basin.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

USGS2022

Museum genomics provide evidence for persistent genetic differentiation in a threatened seabird species in the Western Atlantic

Connectivity among wildlife populations facilitates exchange of genetic material between groups. Changes to historical connectivity patterns resulting from anthropogenic activities can therefore have negative consequences for genetic diversity, particularly for small or isolated populations. DNA obtained from museum specimens can enable direct comparison of temporal changes in connectivity among populations, which can aid in conservation planning and contribute to understanding of population declines. However, museum DNA can be degraded and only available in low quantities, rendering it challenging for use in population genomic analyses. Applications of genomic methodologies such as targeted sequencing address this issue by enabling capture of shared variable sites, increasing quantity and quality of recovered genomic information. We used targeted sequencing of Ultra-conserved Elements (UCEs) to evaluate potential changes in connectivity and genetic diversity of roseate terns ( Sterna dougallii ) with a breeding distribution in the Northwestern Atlantic and the Caribbean. Both populations experienced range contractions and population declines due to anthropogenic activity in the 20 th century, which has the potential to alter historical connectivity regimes. Instead, we found that the two populations were differentiated historically as well as contemporaneously, with little evidence of migration between them for either time period. We also found no evidence for temporal changes in genetic diversity, although these interpretations may have been limited due to sequencing artifacts caused by the degraded nature of the museum samples. Population structuring in migratory seabirds is typically reflective of low rates of divergence and high connectivity among geographically segregated subpopulations. Our contrasting results suggest the potential presence of ecological mechanisms driving population differentiation, and highlight the value of targeted sequencing on DNA derived from museum specimens to uncover long-term patterns of genetic differentiation in wildlife populations.

Integrative and Comparative Biology↗

USGS2022

Visualizing social-ecological intensities for management of recreation visitors in a multiuse system

Accounting for the variation of visitor conflicts and ecological disturbance of outdoor recreation activities across space and time can cause difficulty for managers seeking to make decisions in social-ecological systems (SESs). We develop a method to quantify and visualize social and ecological intensities resulting from outdoor recreation. We demonstrate the utility of our method at Valentine National Wildlife Refuge, where we conducted onsite surveys for an entire year of recreationists participating in consumptive (i.e., hunting), intermediate-consumptive (i.e., fishing) and nonconsumptive (e.g., hiking) activities. We use survey results and combine them with expert consensus by engaging refuge managers and scientists (i.e., Delphi method) to chart patterns in social (e.g., visitor conflicts) and ecological (e.g., damages to natural resources) intensities across multiple spatial and temporal scales. We highlight unexpected patterns that are revealed by collectively considering multi-activity groups through space and time and combining different survey methods (onsite, Delphi method). Based on the consensus reached using the Delphi method , the consumptive group had the greatest potential for social conflicts and ecological disturbances. Social and ecological intensities (i.e., hotspots) of recreation varied across lake types and seasons, highlighting high-intensity areas and periods on the refuge. Accounting for diverse outdoor recreation activities and coinciding social and ecological intensities will allow managers of SESs the ability to concomitantly preserve ecological resources, prioritize conservation efforts, and minimize visitor conflicts. We demonstrate the utility and ease of use of this technique, which can be implemented by managers and scientists within their respective SES of interest.

Nebraska↗

USGS2015

Trace elements in coal ash

Coal ash is a residual waste product primarily produced by coal combustion for electric power generation. Coal ash includes fly ash, bottom ash, and flue-gas desulfurization products (at powerplants equipped with flue-gas desulfurization systems). Fly ash, the most common form of coal ash, is used in a range of products, especially construction materials. A new Environmental Protection Agency ruling upholds designation of coal ash as a non-hazardous waste under Subtitle D of the Resource Conservation and Recovery Act, allowing for the continued beneficial use of coal ash and also designating procedures and requirements for its storage. In this fact sheet, the form, distribution, and behavior of trace elements of environmental interest in samples of coal fly ash were investigated in response to concerns about element mobility in the event of an ash spill. The study includes laboratory-based leaching experiments to examine the behavior of trace elements, such as arsenic (As) and chromium (Cr), in response to key environmental factors including redox conditions (degree of oxygenation), which are known to vary with depth within coal ash impoundments and in natural ecosystems. The experiments show that As dissolves from samples of coal fly ash into simulated freshwater under both oxic (highly oxygenated) and anoxic (poorly oxygenated) conditions, whereas dissolved Cr concentrations are very redox dependent. This U.S. Geological Survey research helps define the distribution of elements such as As in coal ash and shows that element mobility can vary considerably under different conditions expected in the environment.

Fact Sheet↗

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