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USGS2020

Ecological effects of climate-driven salinity variation in the San Francisco Estuary: Can we anticipate and manage the coming changes?

Climate change-driven sea level rise and altered precipitation regimes are predicted to alter patterns of salt intrusion within the San Francisco Estuary. A central question is: Can we use existing knowledge and future projections to predict and manage the anticipated ecological impacts? This was the subject of a 2018 symposium entitled “Ecological and Physiological Impacts of Salinization of Aquatic Systems from Human Activities.” The symposium brought together an inter-disciplinary group of scientists and researchers, resource managers, and policy-makers. Here, we summarize and review the presentations and discussions that arose during the symposium. From a historical perspective, salt intrusion has changed substantially over the past 10,000 years as a result of changing climate patterns, with additional shifts from recent anthropogenic effects. Current salinity patterns in the San Francisco Estuary are driven by a suite of hydrodynamic processes within the given contexts of water management and geography. Based on climate projections for the coming century, significant changes are expected in the processes that determine the spatial and temporal patterns of salinity. Given that native species—including fishes such as the Delta Smelt and Sacramento Splittail—track favorable habitats, exhibit physiological acclimation, and can adaptively evolve, we present a framework for assessing their vulnerability to altered salinity in the San Francisco Estuary. We then present a range of regulatory and structural management tools that are available to control patterns of salinity within the San Francisco Estuary. Finally, we identify major research priorities that can help fill critical gaps in our knowledge about future salinity patterns and the consequences of climate change and sea level rise. These research projects will be most effective with strong linkages and communication between scientists and researchers, resource managers, and policy-makers.

California↗
USGS2014

The effects of harvest on waterfowl populations

Change in the size of populations over space and time is, arguably, the motivation for much of pure and applied ecological research. The fundamental model for the dynamics of any population is straightforward: the net change in the abundance is the simple difference between the number of individuals entering the population and the number leaving the population, either or both of which may change in response to factors intrinsic and extrinsic to the population. While harvest of individuals from a population constitutes a clear extrinsic source of removal of individuals, the response of populations to harvest is frequently complex, reflecting an interaction of harvest with one or more population processes. Here we consider the role of these interactions, and factors influencing them, on the effective harvest management of waterfowl populations. We review historical ideas concerning harvest and discuss the relationship(s) between waterfowl life histories and the development and application of population models to inform harvest management. The influence of population structure (age, spatial) on derivation of optimal harvest strategies (with and without explicit consideration of various sources of uncertainty) is considered. In addition to population structure, we discuss how the optimal harvest strategy may be influenced by: 1) patterns of density-dependence in one or more vital rates, and 2) heterogeneity in vital rates among individuals within an age-sex-size class. Although derivation of the optimal harvest strategy for simple population models (with or without structure) is generally straightforward, there are several potential difficulties in application. In particular, uncertainty concerning the population structure at the time of harvest, and the ability to regulate the structure of the harvest itself, are significant complications. We therefore review the evidence of effects of harvest on waterfowl populations. Some of this evidence has focussed on correspondence of data with more phenomenological models and other evidence relates to specific mechanisms, including densitydependence and heterogeneity. An important part of this evidence is found in the evolution of model weights under various adaptive harvest management programmes of the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service for North American waterfowl. Overall, there is substantial uncertainty about system dynamics, about the impacts of potential management and conservation decisions on those dynamics, and how to optimise management decisions in the presence of such uncertainties. Such relationships are unlikely to be stationary over space or time, and selective harvest of some individuals can potentially alter life history allocation of resources over time – both of which will potentially influence optimal harvest strategies. These sources of variation and uncertainty argue for the use of adaptive approaches to waterfowl harvest management.

Wildfowl↗
USGS2019

Drought-mediated extinction of an arid-land amphibian: Insights from a spatially explicit dynamic occupancy model

Understanding how natural and anthropogenic processes affect population dynamics of species with patchy distributions is critical to predicting their responses to environmental changes. Despite considerable evidence that demographic rates and dispersal patterns vary temporally in response to an array of biotic and abiotic processes, few applications of metapopulation theory have sought to explore factors that explain spatio-temporal variation in extinction or colonization rates. To facilitate exploring these factors, we extended a spatially explicit model of metapopulation dynamics to create a framework that requires only binary presence-absence data, makes few assumptions about the dispersal process, and accounts for imperfect detection. We apply this framework to 22 years of biannual survey data for lowland leopard frogs, Lithobates yavapaiensis, an amphibian that inhabits arid stream systems in the southwestern U.S. and northern Mexico. Our results highlight the importance of accounting for factors that govern temporal variation in transition probabilities, as both extinction and colonization rates varied with hydrologic conditions. Specifically, local extinctions were more frequent during drought periods, particularly at sites without reliable surface water. Colonization rates increased when larval and dispersal periods were wetter than normal, which increased the probability that potential emigrants metamorphosed and reached neighboring sites. Extirpation of frogs from one watershed during a period of severe drought demonstrated the influence of site-level features, as frogs persisted only in areas where most sites held water consistently and where the amount of sediment deposited from high-elevation wildfires was low. Application of our model provided novel insights into how climate-related processes affected the distribution and population dynamics of an arid-land amphibian. The approach we describe has application to a wide array of species that inhabit patchy environments, can improve our understanding of factors that govern metapopulation dynamics, and can inform strategies for conservation of imperiled species.

Arizona↗
USGS2017

Potential paths for male-mediated gene flow to and from an isolated grizzly bear population

For several decades, grizzly bear populations in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem (GYE) and the Northern Continental Divide Ecosystem (NCDE) have increased in numbers and range extent. The GYE population remains isolated and although effective population size has increased since the early 1980s, genetic connectivity between these populations remains a long-term management goal. With only ~110 km distance separating current estimates of occupied range for these populations, the potential for gene flow is likely greater now than it has been for many decades. We sought to delineate potential paths that would provide the opportunity for male-mediated gene flow between the two populations. We first developed step-selection functions to generate conductance layers using ecological, physical, and anthropogenic landscape features associated with non-stationary GPS locations of 124 male grizzly bears (199 bear-years). We then used a randomized shortest path (RSP) algorithm to estimate the average number of net passages for all grid cells in the study region, when moving from an origin to a destination node. Given habitat characteristics that were the basis for the conductance layer, movements follow certain grid cell sequences more than others and the resulting RSP values thus provide a measure of movement potential. Repeating this process for 100 pairs of random origin and destination nodes, we identified paths for three levels of random deviation (θ) from the least-cost path. We observed broad-scale concordance between model predictions for paths originating in the NCDE and those originating in the GYE for all three levels of movement exploration. Model predictions indicated that male grizzly bear movement between the ecosystems could involve a variety of routes, and verified observations of grizzly bears outside occupied range supported this finding. Where landscape features concentrated paths into corridors (e.g., because of anthropogenic influence), they typically followed neighboring mountain ranges, of which several could serve as pivotal stepping stones. The RSP layers provide detailed, spatially explicit information for land managers and organizations working with land owners to identify and prioritize conservation measures that maintain or enhance the integrity of potential areas conducive to male grizzly bear dispersal.

Montana↗
USGS2011

Resolving structural uncertainty in natural resources management using POMDP approaches

In recent years there has been a growing focus on the uncertainties of natural resources management, and the importance of accounting for uncertainty in assessing management effectiveness. This paper focuses on uncertainty in resource management in terms of discrete-state Markov decision processes (MDP) under structural uncertainty and partial observability. It describes the treatment of structural uncertainty with approaches developed for partially observable resource systems. In particular, I show how value iteration for partially observable MDPs (POMDP) can be extended to structurally uncertain MDPs. A key difference between these process classes is that structurally uncertain MDPs require the tracking of system state as well as a probability structure for the structure uncertainty, whereas with POMDPs require only a probability structure for the observation uncertainty. The added complexity of the optimization problem under structural uncertainty is compensated by reduced dimensionality in the search for optimal strategy. A solution algorithm for structurally uncertain processes is outlined for a simple example in conservation biology. By building on the conceptual framework developed for POMDPs, natural resource analysts and decision makers who confront structural uncertainties in natural resources can take advantage of the rapid growth in POMDP methods and approaches, and thereby produce better conservation strategies over a larger class of resource problems.

Ecological Modelling↗
USGS2023

Stocking fish in inland waters: Opportunities and risks for sustainable food systems

Stocking is one of the foremost tools in the inland fisheries management toolbox, but it comes with both opportunities and risks. Stocking is often used as compensation for depleted wild populations, particularly where recruitment processes have been disrupted, but it can introduce disease, disrupt community structures, reduce genetic integrity, and cause conflicts between fishery stakeholders. Despite its widespread use, examples of effective stocking for food fisheries in inland waters are sparse in the peer-reviewed literature. Nevertheless, it is well established that stocking is frequently used to maintain fish yield, so there is a need to conduct the practice in a robust manner that minimises the potential risks. This paper serves as the front matter for a special section of Fisheries Management and Ecology focused on fresh waters feeding the world, which resulted from two panel sessions, one focused on aquaculture and one focused on stocking, hosted by the international InFish research network ( https://infish.org/ ). The paper highlights current practices of fish stock enhancement in inland waters for food, examines potential synergies and interactions of stock enhancement programmes with aquaculture, and provides an outline framework for responsible management of fish stock enhancement.

Fisheries Management and Ecology↗
USGS1998

Water-quality and algal conditions in the North Umpqua River Basin, Oregon, 1992-95, and implications for resource management

This report describes the results of a synoptic water-quality and algal investigation during July 1995 at 36 stream sites in a 1,350 square-mile area of the North Umpqua River Basin, Oregon. The study area includes a headwaters hydroelectric project area, a Wild and Scenic reach in the main stem immediately downstream, and the watersheds of several major tributaries. Additional data from previous investigations are reviewed, and impacts on water quality in the Wild and Scenic reach from resource management, including forestry and reservoir operations, are inferred where sufficient data exist. Water-quality standards were occasionally exceeded for dissolved oxygen and pH, and daily maximum stream temperatures in the Wild and Scenic reach were higher than both the 1996 standard for the State of Oregon and the optimal temperature ranges for many anadromous fish. Dissolved oxygen in the basin was controlled more by stream temperature and reaeration than by primary production. Arsenic concentrations in the river during low flow (1 µg/L [microgram per liter]) indicate a potential cancer risk of between 1:5,000 and 1:20,000 for people using the river as a source of drinking water and fish for consumption. Streambed-sediment concentrations of arsenic, chromium, copper, manganese, and nickel were approximately double the sediment-quality criteria values adopted by New York State and by the Ontario Ministry of the Environment. High concentrations of phosphorus in bed sediments indicated that much of the phosphorus observed in the water column throughout the basin (medians: 32, 9, and 50 µg/L in the main stem, tributaries, and hydroelectric project areas, respectively) could have been geologically derived. Inorganic and organic nitrogen concentrations in water were mostly below minimum reporting limits (5 and 200 µg/L, respectively), indicating severe nitrogen limitation at most locations. Benthic algal biomass, biovolume, and chlorophyll a concentrations were highest at the sites directly below impoundments and at one headwater tributary (medians: 46 grams per square meter, 821 million cubic micrometers per square centimeter, and 126 milligrams per square meter, respectively), and were also somewhat elevated downstream in the Wild and Scenic reach compared with those in similar streams in the Pacific Northwest. Classification of the algal taxa indicated that, among all sites sampled, alkaliphilic taxa, nitrogen fixing taxa, and eutrophic taxa were the most abundant on the basis of biovolume and density. Cold-water taxa, facultative nitrogen heterotrophs, and oligotrophic taxa constituted the remainder of the taxa. Multivariate analyses indicated that algal communities at the hydroelectric-project-affected sites were distinct from communities at sites on the main stem and Steamboat Creek. At many locations, the river’s algal community might be compensating for the low nitrogen concentrations by fixation of atmospheric nitrogen or through heterotrophic assimilation of organic nitrogen. Water quality in the Wild and Scenic reach is dominated by water released from the hydroelectric project area during summer. Effects of the hydroelectric project include seasonal control of streamflow, water temperature, and phosphorus concentrations, and the possible release of low but ecologically important concentrations of organic nitrogen. A review of available data and literature suggests that the reservoirs can increase the interception of sediments and large organic debris, and promote their conversion into fine-grained particulate and dissolved organic matter for downstream transport. These effects could be compounded by the effects of forestry in the basin, including alteration of hydrologic cycles, changes in sediment and nutrient runoff, reductions of the transport of large woody debris, and degradation of habitat quality. It is hypothesized that, in the North Umpqua River, these processes have induced a fundamental shift in the river’s food web, from a detritus-based system to a system with a 2 higher emphasis on algal production. Confirmation of these changes and their effects on higher trophic levels are needed to properly manage the aquatic resources for all designated beneficial uses in the basin.

Oregon↗
USGS2011

Marine and terrestrial factors affecting Adélie penguin Pygoscelis adeliae chick growth and recruitment off the western Antarctic Peninsula

An individual-based bioenergetics model that simulates the growth of an Adélie penguin Pygoscelis adeliae chick from hatching to fledging was used to assess marine and terrestrial factors that affect chick growth and fledging mass off the western Antarctic Peninsula. Simulations considered the effects on Adélie penguin fledging mass of (1) modification of chick diet through the addition of Antarctic silverfish Pleuragramma antarcticum to an all-Antarctic krill Euphausia superba diet, (2) reduction of provisioning rate which may occur as a result of an environmental stress such as reduced prey availability, and (3) increased thermoregulatory costs due to wetting of chicks which may result from increased precipitation or snow-melt in colonies. Addition of 17% Antarctic silverfish of Age-Class 3 yr (AC3) to a penguin chick diet composed of Antarctic krill increased chick fledging mass by 5%. Environmental stress that results in >4% reduction in provisioning rate or wetting of just 10% of the chick’s surface area decreased fledging mass enough to reduce the chick’s probability of successful recruitment. The negative effects of reduced provisioning and wetting on chick growth can be compensated for by inclusion of Antarctic silverfish of AC3 and older in the chick diet. Results provide insight into climate-driven processes that influence chick growth and highlight a need for field research designed to investigate factors that determine the availability of AC3 and older Antarctic silverfish to foraging Adélie penguins and the influence of snowfall on chick wetting, thermoregulation and adult provisioning rate.

Marine Ecology Progress Series↗
USGS2021

Optimization of salt marsh management at the Rachel Carson National Wildlife Refuge, Maine, through use of structured decision making

Structured decision making is a systematic, transparent process for improving the quality of complex decisions by identifying measurable management objectives and feasible management actions; predicting the potential consequences of management actions relative to the stated objectives; and selecting a course of action that maximizes the total benefit achieved and balances tradeoffs among objectives. The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, applied an existing, regional framework for structured decision making to develop an example of a prototype tool for optimizing tidal marsh management decisions for selected marsh management units at the Rachel Carson National Wildlife Refuge in Maine. The goal was to create a prototype that could be available for future implementation. Refuge biologists, refuge managers, and research scientists identified multiple potential management actions to improve the ecological integrity of seven marsh management units within the refuge and estimated the outcomes of each action in terms of regional performance metrics associated with each management objective. Value functions previously developed at the regional level were used to transform metric scores to a common utility scale, and utilities were summed to produce a single score representing the total management benefit that could be accrued from each potential management action. Constrained optimization was used to identify the set of management actions, one per marsh management unit, that could maximize total management benefits at different cost constraints at the refuge scale. Management costs were estimated using limited available information, and estimated costs of individual management actions reflected relative differences among actions rather than actual expected expenditures. Results from this prototype showed how, for the objectives, actions, and estimated outcomes used for this example, total management benefits may increase consistently up to a certain estimated cost, and may continue to increase, at a lower rate, with further expenditures. Potential management actions in optimal portfolios at moderate total estimated costs included breaching or removing dikes, roads, or embankments; planting Spartina alterniflora (smooth cordgrass); and digging runnels, or shallow creeks, on the marsh platform to improve surface-water drainage. Potential management actions in optimal portfolios at high estimated costs (for example, up to $550,000) included breaching embankments to restore tidal exchange followed by planting salt marsh vegetation. The potential management benefits were derived from predicted increases in the numbers of tidal marsh obligate birds and spiders (as an indicator of trophic health), and expected improvement in the capacity of marsh elevation to keep pace with sea-level rise and reduced duration of marsh-surface inundation. The prototype presented here does not resolve current management decisions; rather, it provides a framework for decision making at the Rachel Carson National Wildlife Refuge that can be updated for implementation as new data and information become available. Insights from this process may also be useful to inform future habitat management planning at the refuges.

Maine↗
USGS2006

Arsenic and selenium in microbial metabolism

Arsenic and selenium are readily metabolized by prokaryotes, participating in a full range of metabolic functions including assimilation, methylation, detoxification, and anaerobic respiration. Arsenic speciation and mobility is affected by microbes through oxidation/reduction reactions as part of resistance and respiratory processes. A robust arsenic cycle has been demonstrated in diverse environments. Respiratory arsenate reductases, arsenic methyltransferases, and new components in arsenic resistance have been recently described. The requirement for selenium stems primarily from its incorporation into selenocysteine and its function in selenoenzymes. Selenium oxyanions can serve as an electron acceptor in anaerobic respiration, forming distinct nanoparticles of elemental selenium that may be enriched in (76)Se. The biogenesis of selenoproteins has been elucidated, and selenium methyltransferases and a respiratory selenate reductase have also been described. This review highlights recent advances in ecology, biochemistry, and molecular biology and provides a prelude to the impact of genomics studies.

Annual Review of Microbiology↗
USGS2000

Investigation of nitrogen transformations in a southern California constructed wastewater treatment wetland

A 9.9-ha combined habitat and wastewater treatment demonstration wetland was constructed and planted in the summer of 1994, at Eastern Municipal Water District’s (EMWD) Hemet/San Jacinto Regional Water Reclamation Facility (RWRF) in southern California. From January 1996 through September 1997, the marsh–pond–marsh wetland system was operated to polish an average of 3785 m 3 d −1 (1×10 6 gal day −1 ) of secondary-treated effluent from the RWRF. Nitrogen removal was a major objective of this wetland treatment. Weekly inflow/outflow water quality monitoring of the wetland was supplemented with biannual, 45-station synoptic surveys within the system to determine internal distribution patterns of the nitrogen species (total ammonia, nitrite, nitrate, and organic nitrogen), total organic carbon (TOC), and ultraviolet absorbance at 254 nm (UV 254 ). Synoptic surveys were carried out during May 22 and September 17, 1996, and May 6 and September 25, 1997 and the results were mapped using the ARC/INFO processing package and inverse distance weighted mathematical techniques. Distribution patterns of the various nitrogen species, TOC, and UV 254 within the wetland indicate that the nitrogen dynamics of the system are influenced both by variations in treatment plant loading, and, increasingly, by the degree of coverage and maturity of the emergent vegetation.

Ecological Engineering↗
USGS2023

Divergent community trajectories with climate change across a fine-scale gradient in snow depth

Fine-scale microclimate variation due to complex topography can shape both current vegetation distributional patterns and how vegetation responds to changing climate. Topographic heterogeneity in mountains is hypothesized to mediate responses to regional climate change at the scale of metres. For alpine vegetation especially, the interplay between changing temperatures and topographically mediated variation in snow accumulation will determine the overall impact of climate change on vegetation dynamics. We combined 30 years of co-located measurements of temperature, snow and alpine plant community composition in Colorado, USA, to investigate vegetation community trajectories across a snow depth gradient. Our analysis of long-term trends in plant community composition revealed notable directional change in the alpine vegetation with warming temperatures. Furthermore, community trajectories are divergent across the snow depth gradient, with exposed parts of the landscape that experience little snow accumulation shifting towards stress-tolerant, cold- and drought-adapted communities, while snowier areas shifted towards more warm-adapted communities. Synthesis : Our findings demonstrate that fine-scale topography can mediate both the magnitude and direction of vegetation responses to climate change. We documented notable shifts in plant community composition over a 30-year period even though alpine vegetation is known for slow dynamics that often lag behind environmental change. These results suggest that the processes driving alpine plant population and community dynamics at this site are strong and highly heterogeneous across the complex topography that is characteristic of high-elevation mountain systems.

Journal of Ecology↗
USGS2011

Fire and the fire regime framework

A global view of potential vs. actual vegetation distributions points to fire as a major driver of biome distribution and determinant of community structure (Bond et al . 2005). In ecological terms, fire acts much like an herbivore, consuming biomass and competing with biotic consumers for resources, and in this sense is an important part of trophic ecology (Bond & Keeley 2005). As in other competitive interactions, not only can fire competitively exclude herbivores by temporarily eliminating resources, but intensive grazing is known to exclude fire by consuming herbaceous ground fuels (Savage & Swetnam 1990). Coexistence is often enhanced by temporal separation of trophic niches, with herbivores grazing early in the spring on green herbaceous material that is unavailable for burning, whereas later in the season the remaining dry thatch is readily consumed by fire. In many respects fire is a more potent competitor because it is not limited by either toxins or protein deficiency and readily consumes dead woody biomass, but by contrast it is often limited by ignition sources and continuity of fuels. Fire scientists have long symbolized the critical elements of fire in a triangle of fuel, oxygen and heat (Pyne et al . 1996). These are indeed necessary for fire ignition and propagation but are insufficient for predicting the global distribution of fire-prone ecosystems. The conditions both necessary and sufficient to explain the ecological distribution of fire activity can be summarized by four parameters: biomass, seasonality, ignitions and fuel structure (Fig. 2.1). In addition to biomass fuels to spread a fire there must be a dry season that converts potential fuels to available fuels. In mediterranean-type climate (MTC) ecosystems summer drought results in high fire hazard on an annual basis, in contrast to many temperate forests that are only periodically vulnerable to fire in response to decadal or longer oscillations in climate. Vegetation only burns when ignitions are present to initiate the combustion process and landscapes vary markedly in the potential for natural ignitions from lightning, and in the extent of anthropogenic ignition sources. However, understanding the ecosystem distribution of fire requires consideration of a fourth parameter, fuel structure, which is fundamental to recognizing how different fire regimes develop.

Book chapter↗
USGS2003

Potential effects of organic carbon production on ecosystems and drinking water quality

Restoration of tidal wetlands in the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta (Delta) is an important component of the Ecosystem Restoration Program of the CALFED Bay-Delta Program (CALFED). CALFED is a collaborative effort among state and federal agencies to restore the ecological health and improve water management of the Delta and San Francisco Bay (Bay). Tidal wetland restoration is intended to provide valuable habitat for organisms and to improve ecosystem productivity through export of various forms of organic carbon, including both algae and plant detritus. However, the Delta also provides all or part of the drinking water for over 22 million Californians. In this context, increasing sources of organic carbon may be a problem because of the potential increase in the production of trihalomethanes and other disinfection by-products created during the process of water disinfection. This paper reviews the existing information about the roles of organic carbon in ecosystem function and drinking water quality in the Bay-Delta system, evaluates the potential for interaction, and considers major uncertainties and potential actions to reduce uncertainty. In the last 10 years, substantial progress has been made on the role of various forms of organic carbon in both ecosystem function and drinking water quality; however, interactions between the two have not been directly addressed. Several ongoing studies are beginning to address these interactions, and the results from these studies should reduce uncertainty and provide focus for further research.

California↗
USGS2013

Geomorphic and vegetation processes of the Willamette River floodplain, Oregon: current understanding and unanswered science questions

This report summarizes the current understanding of floodplain processes and landforms for the Willamette River and its major tributaries. The area of focus encompasses the main stem Willamette River above Newberg and the portions of the Coast Fork Willamette, Middle Fork Willamette, McKenzie, and North, South and main stem Santiam Rivers downstream of U.S. Army Corps of Engineers dams. These reaches constitute a large portion of the alluvial, salmon-bearing rivers in the Willamette Basin. The geomorphic, or historical, floodplain of these rivers has two zones - the active channel where coarse sediment is mobilized and transported during annual flooding and overbank areas where fine sediment is deposited during higher magnitude floods. Historically, characteristics of the rivers and geomorphic floodplain (including longitudinal patterns in channel complexity and the abundance of side channels, islands and gravel bars) were controlled by the interactions between floods and the transport of coarse sediment and large wood. Local channel responses to these interactions were then shaped by geologic features like bedrock outcrops and variations in channel slope. Over the last 150 years, floods and the transport of coarse sediment and large wood have been substantially reduced in the basin. With dam regulation, nearly all peak flows are now confined to the main channels. Large floods (greater than 10-year recurrence interval prior to basinwide flow regulation) have been largely eliminated. Also, the magnitude and frequency of small floods (events that formerly recurred every 2–10 years) have decreased substantially. The large dams trap an estimated 50–60 percent of bed-material sediment—the building block of active channel habitats—that historically entered the Willamette River. They also trap more than 80 percent of the estimated bed material in the lower South Santiam River and Middle and Coast Forks of the Willamette River. Downstream, revetments further decrease bed-material supply by an unknown amount because they limit bank erosion and entrainment of stored sediment. The rivers, geomorphic floodplain, and vegetation within the study area have changed noticeably in response to the alterations in floods and coarse sediment and wood transport. Widespread decreases have occurred in the rates of meander migration and avulsions and the number and diversity of landforms such as gravel bars, islands, and side channels. Dynamic and, in some cases, multi-thread river segments have become stable, single-thread channels. Preliminary observations suggest that forest area has increased within the active channel, further reducing the area of unvegetated gravel bars. Alterations to floods and sediment transport and ongoing channel, floodplain, and vegetation responses result in a modern Willamette River Basin. Here, the floodplain influenced by the modern flow and sediment regimes, or the functional floodplain, is narrower and inset with the broader and older geomorphic floodplain. The functional floodplain is flanked by higher elevation relict floodplain features that are no longer inundated by modern floods. The corridor of present- day active channel surfaces is narrower, enabling riparian vegetation to establish on formerly active gravel bar surfaces. The modern Willamette River Basin with its fundamental changes in the flood, sediment transport, and large wood regimes has implications for future habitat conditions. System-wide future trends probably include narrower floodplains and a lower diversity of landforms and habitats along the Willamette River and its major tributaries compared to historical patterns and today. Furthermore, specific conditions and future trends will probably vary between geologically stable, anthropogenically stable, and dynamic reaches. The middle and lower segments of the Willamette River are geologically stable, whereas the South Santiam and Middle Fork Willamette Rivers were historically dynamic, but are now largely stable in response to flow regulation and revetment construction. The upper Willamette and North Santiam Rivers retain some dynamic characteristics, and provide the greatest diversity of aquatic and riparian habitats under the current flow and sediment regime. The McKenzie River has some areas that are more dynamic, whereas other sections are stable due to geology or revetments. Historical reductions in channel dynamism also have implications for ongoing and future recruitment and succession of floodplain forests. For instance, the succession of native plants like black cottonwood is currently limited by (1) fewer low-elevation gravel bars for stand initiation; (2) altered streamflow during seed release, germination, and stand initiation; (3) competition from introduced plant species; and (4) frequent erosion of young vegetation in some locations because scouring flows are concentrated within a narrow channel corridor. Despite past alterations, the Willamette River Basin has many of the physical and ecological building blocks necessary for highly functioning rivers. Management strategies, including environmental flow programs, river and floodplain restoration, revetment modifications, and reclamation of gravel mines, are underway to mitigate some historical changes. However, there are some substantial gaps in the scientific understanding of the modern Willamette basin that is needed to efficiently integrate these blocks and to establish realistic objectives for future conditions. Unanswered questions include: 1. What is the distribution and diversity of landforms and habitats along the Willamette River and its tributaries? 2. What is the extent of today’s functional floodplain—the part of the river corridor actively formed and modified by fluvial processes? 3. How are landforms and habitats in the Willamette River Basin created and sustained by present-day flow and sediment conditions? 4. How is the succession of native floodplain vegetation shaped by present-day flow and sediment conditions? Answering these questions will produce baseline data on the current distributions of landforms and habitats (question 1), the extent of the functional floodplain (question 2), and the effects of modern flow and sediment regimes on future floodplain landforms, habitats, and vegetation succession (questions 3 and 4). Addressing questions 1 and 2 is a logical next step because they underlie questions 3 and 4. Addressing these four questions would better characterize the modern Willamette Basin and help in implementing and setting realistic targets for ongoing management strategies, demonstrating their effectiveness at the site and basin scales, and anticipating future trends and conditions.

Oregon↗
USGS2025

Evaluation of daily stream temperature predictions (1979-2021) across the contiguous United States using a spatiotemporal aware machine learning algorithm

Stream temperature controls a variety of physical and biological processes that affect ecosystems, human health, and economic activities. We used 42 years (1979–2021) of data to predict daily summary statistics of stream temperature across >50,000 stream reaches in the contiguous United States using a recurrent graph convolution network. We comprehensively documented the performance – both across all reaches and by stream type (e.g., reservoir or groundwater influence) – as a baseline for future improvement. The model showed reach-level RMSE of <2 °C with 90 % prediction intervals that contain 90.7 % of observations. We also assessed how the model captured variability in ecologically relevant metrics (e.g., R 2 for annual 7-day maximum = 0.76; R 2 for days exceeding 25 °C = 0.75). This model does not outperform state-of-the-art machine learning efforts (e.g., RMSE ≤1.5 °C) due to a limited input set but does provide the most spatially complete modeling to date to support water availability assessments.

contiguous United States↗
USGS2017

Niobium and tantalum

Niobium and tantalum are transition metals that are almost always found together in nature because they have very similar physical and chemical properties. Their properties of hardness, conductivity, and resistance to corrosion largely determine their primary uses today. The leading use of niobium (about 75 percent) is in the production of high-strength steel alloys used in pipelines, transportation infrastructure, and structural applications. Electronic capacitors are the leading use of tantalum for high-end applications, including cell phones, computer hard drives, and such implantable medical devices as pacemakers. Niobium and tantalum are considered critical and strategic metals based on the potential risks to their supply (because current production is restricted to only a few countries) and the significant effects that a restriction in supply would have on the defense, energy, high-tech industrial, and medical sectors. The average abundance of niobium and tantalum in bulk continental crust is relatively low—8.0 parts per million (ppm) niobium and 0.7 ppm tantalum. Their chemical characteristics, such as small ionic size and high electronic field strength, significantly reduce the potential for these elements to substitute for more common elements in rock-forming minerals and make niobium and tantalum essentially immobile in most aqueous solutions. Niobium and tantalum do not occur naturally as pure metals but are concentrated in a variety of relatively rare oxide and hydroxide minerals, as well as in a few rare silicate minerals. Niobium is primarily derived from the complex oxide minerals of the pyrochlore group ((Na,Ca,Ce) 2 (Nb,Ti,Ta) 2 (O,OH,F) 7 ), which are found in some alkaline granite-syenite complexes (that is, igneous rocks containing sodium- or potassium-rich minerals and little or no quartz) and carbonatites (that is, igneous rocks that are more than 50 percent composed of primary carbonate minerals, by volume). Tantalum is derived mostly from the mineral tantalite ((Fe,Mn)(Ta,Nb) 2 O 6 ), which is found as an accessory mineral in rare-metal granites and pegmatites that are also enriched in lithium and cesium (termed lithium-cesium-tantalum (LCT)-type pegmatites). Brazil and Canada are the leading nations that produce niobium mineral concentrates, but Brazil is by far the leading producer, accounting for about 90 percent of production, which comes mostly from weathered material derived from carbonatites. Brazil and Canada also have the largest identified niobium resources; additional resources, although they are less well reported, occur in Angola, Australia, China, Greenland, Malawi, Russia, and South Africa. Australia and Brazil have been the leading producers of tantalum mineral concentrates, although recently Ethiopia and Mozambique have also been significant suppliers of tantalum. Artisanal mining of columbite-tantalite (also called coltan) is practiced in many countries, particularly Burundi, the Democratic Republic of the Congo (Congo [Kinshasa]), Nigeria, Rwanda, and Uganda. Brazil has about 40 percent of the identified tantalum resources; other countries and regions with identified tantalum resources include, in decreasing order of resources, Australia, Asia, Russia and the Middle East, Africa, North America, and Europe. Identified niobium and tantalum resources in the United States are small, low grade, and difficult to recover and process, and are thus not commercially recoverable at current prices. Consequently, the United States meets its current and expected future needs for niobium and tantalum through imports of primary mineral concentrates and alloys and through recovery from foreign and domestic alloy scrap that contain the metals. Environmentally, the main issues related to niobium and tantalum mining are land disruptions, the volume of waste materials and their disposal, and the radioactivity of some tailings and waste materials that contain thorium and uranium. Because of the relative biological inertness of niobium and tantalum, human and ecological health concerns are generally minimal under most natural conditions. Demand for both niobium and tantalum is expected to increase as the world economy continues to recover from the downturn that began in 2008. Increased demand for niobium is linked to increased consumption of microalloyed steel, which is used in the manufacture of cars, buildings, ships, and refinery equipment. Demand for these steels will likely increase with continued economic development in such countries as Brazil, China, and India. In addition, increased global demand for cars, cell phones, computers, superconducting magnets, and other high-tech devices will likely spur increased demand for both niobium and tantalum. The estimated global reserves and resources of niobium and tantalum are large and appear more than sufficient to meet global demand for the foreseeable future, possibly the next 500 years. The sale of “conflict coltan” attributed to rebel forces waging a civil war in Congo (Kinshasa) has been of recent concern and has highlighted the need for a transparent and traceable global supply chain that can exclude illegal columbite-tantalite from the conventional market while discerning legitimate artisanal mine production in central Africa.

Professional Paper↗
USGS2006

A review of major storm impacts on coastal wetland elevations

Storms have long been recognized as agents of geomorphic change to coastal wetlands. A review of recent data on soil elevation dynamics before and after storms revealed that storms affected wetland elevations by storm surge, high winds, and freshwater flushing of the estuary (inferred). The data also indicate that measures of sediment deposition and erosion can often misrepresent the amount and even direction of elevation change because of storm influences on subsurface processes. Simultaneous influence on both surface and subsurface processes by storms means that soil elevation cannot always be accurately estimated from surface process data alone. Eight processes are identified as potentiatly influencing soil elevation: sediment deposition, sediment erosion, sediment compaction, soil shrinkage, root decomposition (following tree mortality from high winds), root growth (following flushing with freshwater, inferred), soil swelling, and lateral folding of the marsh root mat. Local wetland conditions (e.g., marsh health, tide height, groundwater level) and the physical characteristics of the storm (e.g., angle of approach, proximity, amount of rain, wind speed, and storm surge height) were apparently important factors determining the storm's effect on soil elevation. Storm effects on elevation were both permanent (on an ecological time scale) and short-lived, but even short-term changes have potentially important ecological consequences. Shallow soil subsidence or expansion caused by a storm must be considered when calculating local rates of relative sea level rise and evaluating storm effects on wetland stability.

Estuaries and Coasts↗

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