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USGS2024

California community Earth Models for Seismic Hazard Assessments workshop report

The California Community Earth Models for Seismic Hazard Assessments Workshop (https://www.scec.org/workshops/2024/california-community-models) was held online March 4–5, 2024, with more than 200 participants over the two days. In this report, we provide a summary of the key points from the presentations and discussions. We highlight three use cases that drive the development of community Earth models, present an inventory of existing community Earth models in California, summarize a few techniques for integrating and merging models, discuss potential connections with the Cascadia Region Earthquake Science Center, and discuss what “community” means in community Earth models.

California↗
USGS2023

Calibration and validation for the Surface Biology and Geology (SBG) mission concept: Recommendations for a multi-sensor system for imaging spectroscopy and thermal imagery

The primary objective of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Surface Biology and Geology (SBG) mission is to measure biological, physical, chemical, and mineralogical features of the Earth's surface, realizing a key conceptual component of the envisioned NASA Earth System Observatory (ESO). SBG is planned to launch as a two-platform mission in the late 2020s, the first of the ESO satellites. Targeted science and applications objectives based on observations of the Earth's SBG helped to define the mission architecture and instrument capabilities for the SBG mission concept. These objectives further drove the need for enabling change detection and trending of surface biological and geological features. These needs implied fundamental calibration goals to achieve the necessary science data quality characteristics. To meet those goals, calibration and validation pre-launch and on-orbit methods formed a basis of the calibration and validation concept, including the combined use of on-board references, vicarious techniques, and routine lunar imaging. International collaboration with space agencies in other countries, an important feature of the recommended SBG mission architecture, uncovered and emphasized the need for inter-calibration techniques that underscored the importance of collaborative instrument characterization data sharing and the use of common calibration references that are International System of Units (SI) traceable in pre-launch and post-launch on orbit calibration mission phases. International collaboration through the use of terrestrial and aquatic networks on six continents for vicarious calibration and validation activities will further assure necessary science data quality while in orbit.

JGR Biogeosciences↗
USGS2021

Past abrupt changes, tipping points and cascading impacts in the Earth system

The geological record shows that abrupt changes in the Earth system can occur on timescales short enough to challenge the capacity of human societies to adapt to environmental pressures. In many cases, abrupt changes arise from slow changes in one component of the Earth system that eventually pass a critical threshold, or tipping point, after which impacts cascade through coupled climate–ecological–social systems. The chance of detecting abrupt changes and tipping points increases with the length of observations. The geological record provides the only long-term information we have on the conditions and processes that can drive physical, ecological and social systems into new states or organizational structures that may be irreversible within human time frames. Here, we use well-documented abrupt changes of the past 30 kyr to illustrate how their impacts cascade through the Earth system. We review useful indicators of upcoming abrupt changes, or early warning signals, and provide a perspective on the contributions of palaeoclimate science to the understanding of abrupt changes in the Earth system.

Nature Geoscience↗
USGS2005

Geospatial decision support systems for societal decision making

While science provides reliable information to describe and understand the earth and its natural processes, it can contribute more. There are many important societal issues in which scientific information can play a critical role. Science can add greatly to policy and management decisions to minimize loss of life and property from natural and man-made disasters, to manage water, biological, energy, and mineral resources, and in general, to enhance and protect our quality of life. However, the link between science and decision-making is often complicated and imperfect. Technical language and methods surround scientific research and the dissemination of its results. Scientific investigations often are conducted under different conditions, with different spatial boundaries, and in different timeframes than those needed to support specific policy and societal decisions. Uncertainty is not uniformly reported in scientific investigations. If society does not know that data exist, what the data mean, where to use the data, or how to include uncertainty when a decision has to be made, then science gets left out -or misused- in a decision making process. This paper is about using Geospatial Decision Support Systems (GDSS) for quantitative policy analysis. Integrated natural -social science methods and tools in a Geographic Information System that respond to decision-making needs can be used to close the gap between science and society. The GDSS has been developed so that nonscientists can pose "what if" scenarios to evaluate hypothetical outcomes of policy and management choices. In this approach decision makers can evaluate the financial and geographic distribution of potential policy options and their societal implications. Actions, based on scientific information, can be taken to mitigate hazards, protect our air and water quality, preserve the planet's biodiversity, promote balanced land use planning, and judiciously exploit natural resources. Applications using the GDSS have demonstrated the benefits of utilizing science for policy decisions. Investment in science reduces decision-making uncertainty and reducing that uncertainty has economic value.

Boletin Geologico y Minero↗
USGS2004

Book review: Earth’s magnetism in the age of sail

For many centuries, the source, behavior, and even the essential nature of geomagnetism were enigmatic. Despite this, the effect of geomagnetism was familiar, by imparting a directional preference on the magnetized needle of the compass and providing a useful, if somewhat annoyingly complicated, reference for navigators. Although the compass seems to have first been invented in China, it was the Europeans who made the most systematic early studies of magnetism, who made the first elaborate and practical usage of the compass, and who developed most of the early theories as to the cause of the compass needle’s north-seeking tendency. From the centuries of the Middle Ages, through the late 16th century of the Renaissance, to the 17th century of philosophical enlightenment and the 18th century of discovery, the subject of magnetism and, more specifically, geomagnetism, evolved from a hodgepodge of mystical beliefs into something that we can today recognize as the object of modern scientific pursuit. Those same centuries witnessed the great transoceanic sailing voyages undertaken by European nations for reasons of exploration, territorial claim, religious mission, and mercantile trade. Naturally, the navigator’s compass, and therefore geomagnetism, played an important role in these developments. This romantic intersection of science and history is the subject of Earth’s Magnetism in the Age of Sail , a pleasantly written and scholarly book by A.R.T. Jonkers.

Physics of the Earth and Planetary Interiors↗
USGS2022

Human-in-the-Loop segmentation of earth surface imagery

Segmentation, or the classification of pixels (grid cells) in imagery, is ubiquitously applied in the natural sciences. Manual methods are often prohibitively time-consuming, especially those images consisting of small objects and/or significant spatial heterogeneity of colors or textures. Labeling complicated regions of transition that in Earth surface imagery are represented by collections of mixed-pixels, -textures, and -spectral signatures, can be especially error-prone because it is difficult to reliably unmix, identify and delineate consistently. However, the success of supervised machine learning (ML) approaches is entirely dependent on good label data. We describe a fast, semi-automated, method for interactive segmentation of N-dimensional (x, y, N) images into two-dimensional (x, y) label images. It uses human-in-the-loop ML to achieve consensus between the labeler and a model in an iterative workflow. The technique is reproducible; the sequence of decisions made by human labeler and ML algorithms can be encoded to file, so the entire process can be played back and new outputs generated with alternative decisions and/or algorithms. We illustrate the scientific potential of segmentation of imagery of diverse settings and image types using six case studies from river, estuarine, and open coast environments. These photographic and non-photographic imagery consist of 1- and 3-bands on regular and irregular grids ranging from centimeters to tens of meters. We demonstrate high levels of agreement in label images generated by several labelers on the same imagery, and make suggestions to achieve consensus and measure uncertainty, ideal for widespread application in training supervised ML for image segmentation.

Earth and Space Science↗
USGS2004

Climate change: Conflict of observational science, theory, and politics

Debate over whether human activity causes Earth climate change obscures the immensity of the dynamic systems that create and maintain climate on the planet. Anthropocentric debate leads people to believe that they can alter these planetary dynamic systems to prevent that they perceive as negative climate impacts on human civilization. Although politicians offer simplistic remedies, such as the Kyoto Protocol, global climate continues to change naturally. Better planning for the inevitable dislocations that have followed natural global climate changes throughout human history requires us to accept the fact that climate will change, and that human society must adapt to the changes. Over the last decade, the scientific literature reported a shift in emphasis from attempting to build theoretical models of putative human impacts on climate to understanding the planetwide dynamic processes that are the natural climate drivers. The current scientific literature is beginning to report the history of past climate change, the extent of natural climate variability, natural system drivers, and the episodicity of many climate changes. The scientific arguments have broadened from focus upon human effects on climate to include the array of natural phenomena that have driven global climate change for eons. However, significant political issues with long-term social consequences continue their advance. This paper summarizes recent scientific progress in climate science and arguments about human influence on climate. ?? 2004. The American Association of Petroleum Geologists. All rights reserved.

American Association of Petroleum Geologists Bulle↗
USGS2010

An overview of sensor calibration inter-comparison and applications

Long-term climate data records (CDR) are often constructed using observations made by multiple Earth observing sensors over a broad range of spectra and a large scale in both time and space. These sensors can be of the same or different types operated on the same or different platforms. They can be developed and built with different technologies and are likely operated over different time spans. It has been known that the uncertainty of climate models and data records depends not only on the calibration quality (accuracy and stability) of individual sensors, but also on their calibration consistency across instruments and platforms. Therefore, sensor calibration inter-comparison and validation have become increasingly demanding and will continue to play an important role for a better understanding of the science product quality. This paper provides an overview of different methodologies, which have been successfully applied for sensor calibration inter-comparison. Specific examples using different sensors, including MODIS, AVHRR, and ETM+, are presented to illustrate the implementation of these methodologies.

Frontiers of Earth Science in China↗
USGS2006

In Jules Verne's footsteps: Seismology in the source

When Professor Otto Lidenbrock led his little band to the center of the Earth in Jules Verne's 1864 classic novel, the intrepid adventurers needed little more than practical 19th century clothes to provide them with comfort and protection. How different the science of earthquakes would be if conditions in the Earth were really so friendly to the would-be observer. Even the operation of seismic sensors at the relatively modest depth of 2–3 km, roughly the depth of the shallowest crustal earthquakes, requires careful precautions against the effects of unstable materials, temperature, pressure, and water for successful long-term observations to be made. Indeed, the handful of successful deep borehole experiments that have been conducted to date have depended on simple sensors with limited bandwidth and dynamic range, and have yielded data that were not ideally suited to investigating the details of the earthquake source.

Eos Science News↗
USGS2021

Earthcasting: Geomorphic forecasts for society

Over the last several decades, the study of Earth surface processes has progressed from a descriptive science to an increasingly quantitative one due to advances in theoretical, experimental, and computational geosciences. The importance of geomorphic forecasts has never been greater, as technological development and global climate change threaten to reshape the landscapes that support human societies and natural ecosystems. Here we explore best practices for developing socially relevant forecasts of Earth surface change, a goal we are calling “earthcasting”. We suggest that earthcasts have the following features: they focus on temporal (∼1–∼100 years) and spatial (∼1 m–∼10 km) scales relevant to planning; they are designed with direct involvement of stakeholders and public beneficiaries through the evaluation of the socioeconomic impacts of geomorphic processes; and they generate forecasts that are clearly stated, testable, and include quantitative uncertainties. Earthcasts bridge the gap between Earth surface researchers and decision-makers, stakeholders, researchers from other disciplines, and the general public. We investigate the defining features of earthcasts and evaluate some specific examples. This paper builds on previous studies of prediction in geomorphology by recommending a roadmap for (a) generating earthcasts, especially those based on modeling; (b) transforming a subset of geomorphic research into earthcasts; and (c) communicating earthcasts beyond the geomorphology research community. Earthcasting exemplifies the social benefit of geomorphology research, and it calls for renewed research efforts toward further understanding the limits of predictability of Earth surface systems and processes, and the uncertainties associated with modeling geomorphic processes and their impacts.

Earth's Future↗
USGS1981

Objectives, accomplishments, and future plans of IGCP project 143, remote sensing and mineral exploration

The International Geological Correlation Programme (IGCP) is a worldwide cooperative research programme that began in 1974 under the auspices of the International Union of Geological Sciences. Because of the global availability of Earth resources data collected by satellites and the great interest among geologists in taking advantage of these new sources of information, a project was begun in 1976 to improve the rate of technology transfer in the field of remote-sensing exploration for energy and mineral resources. Conducting joint workshops in cooperation with COSPAR has been an important part of this project. It is to be hoped the project will improve our capability to explore, identify, and develop new resources to meet the burgeoning demands of society. ?? 1981.

Advances in Space Research↗
USGS2000

A modern earth narrative: What will be the fate of the biosphere?

The modern Earth Narrative is the scientific description of the natural and human history of the Earth, and it is based on two fundamental concepts: Deep (or Geologic) Time and Biological Evolution. Changes in the Earth's biosphere and geosphere are discussed from the perspective of natural variability and impacts of the rapid increase in the human population. The failure of humans to comprehend and understand the Earth Narrative, especially the place of humans in it, presages dire consequences for the Earth's biosphere. The actions humans take, individually and collectively, during the 21st century will likely determine the fate of many millions of species, including our own. It is argued that we must quickly establish an Earth System-based conservation ethic that has the objective of complete preservation of the Earth's biotic inheritance. Published by Elsevier Science Ltd.

Technology in Society↗
USGS2025

Toward co-designed Earth System Models: Reflecting end-user priorities in local applications from a modeler's perspective

Earth System Models (ESM) are crucial for quantifying climate impacts across Earth's interconnected systems and supporting science-based adaptation and mitigation. However, not including end-users, especially decision-makers representing communities vulnerable to climate change, can limit model utility, increase epistemic risks, and lead to information misuse in decision-making. While the ESM community increasingly values broad community engagement, end-users may not initially perceive models as useful for local planning. Co-designing models with end-users fosters two-way learning: users better understand models and their outputs, while modelers gain insights into fine-scale local processes like monitoring practices and management priorities. Higher-level co-design can lead to more customized, priority-driven, and useful modeling products. Despite these benefits, modelers often struggle to initiate meaningful partnerships with local communities. Therefore, this paper explores model co-design from the perspective of modelers. This study presents two case studies where modelers and social scientists collaborated with Indigenous communities' decision-makers to reflect their priorities in model design and application. In the Arctic Rivers Project, high-resolution climate and hydrology data sets for Alaska were developed with guidance from an Indigenous Advisory Council, using optimized, coupled land-atmosphere models. In the Mid-Klamath Project, we partnered with the Karuk Tribe's Department of Natural Resources to assess climate change and prescribed burning impacts on terrestrial hydrology in the Klamath River Basin. Drawing from these studies, we introduce a four-level framework: (a) Co-design Configuration; (b) Model Tuning; (c) Incorporate Contextual Knowledge; (d) Co-develop New Model Functions. We aim to help researchers consider and compare co-design across diverse modeling projects systematically and coherently.

Alaska, California, Oregon↗
USGS2020

The IPBES global assessment: Pathways to action

The first Global Assessment of the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services found widespread, accelerating declines in Earth’s biodiversity and associated benefits to people from nature. Addressing these trends will require science-based policy responses to reduce impacts, especially at national to local scales. Effective scaling of science-policy efforts driven by global and national assessments is a major challenge for turning assessment into action, and will require unprecedented commitments on the part of scientists to engage with communities of policy and practice. Fulfillment of science’s social contract with society, and with nature, will require strong institutional support for scientists’ participation in activities that transcend conventional research and publication.

Trends in Ecology and Evolution↗
USGS1993

U.S.-Soviet Collaborative Geological and Geophysical Survey of the Mid-Atlantic Ridge near 31 degrees N, the Petrov Fracture Zone

Introduction In February 1989, the first formal U.S.-Soviet joint marine geologic-geophysical study in 10 years was undertaken along the Mid-Atlantic Ridge near 31°N on the 12th Cruise of the RN Akademik Boris Petrov of the Vernadsky Institute of Geochemistry (USSR Academy of Sciences, Moscow). This survey was initiated as part of the U.S.S.R.-U.S. cooperative research project "Mid-Atlantic Ridge Crest Processes" within the framework of the Soviet-U.S. bilateral Ocean Studies Agreement (Ostenso, 1989). U.S. scientists from the U.S. Geological Survey, University of Houston, and Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution participated in this program with Soviet scientists from the Vernadsky Institute of Geochemistry, Institute of Geology, and Schmidt Institute of Physics of the Earth, all institutes of the USSR Academy of Sciences in Moscow (Appendix 1 ). The ship departed from Rotterdam, Nederlands on February 2, 1989 and docked in Bridgetown, Barbados on February 28, 1989. A log of the ship's schedule during this cruise is given in Appendix 2. This study involved a limited multibeam-bathymetric, gravity, magnetic, and seismic- reflection survey. and dredging program of a short-offset transform fault named the Petrov Fracture Zone near 31 °N, located just north of the Atlantis Fracture Zone on the Mid Atlantic Ridge. A site survey at King's Trough in the northeast Atlantic for a MIR submersible program in June 1989 was originally planned as part of this program, but bad weather and the resultant poor quality geophysical data forced this work to be terminated after only one day. Nearly 6000 km of geophysical profile data and 13 dredge stations were completed during this cruise. A description of the geophysical systems aboard the RN Petrov is given in Appendices 3 and 4. All geophysical data were recorded on magnetic tape in data formats described in Appendix 5. Dredge locales and description summaries only are presented in Appendix 6. Detailed descriptions of dredge samples will be presented elsewhere. Operational plan for the studies on this cruise was developed as a cooperative effort between U.S. and Soviet scientists, who established jointly the basic objectives of the study. The U.S. scientists were given the responsibility for developing the detailed survey and dredge sampling plans. Dredge operations and basic geophysical systems operations were the responsibility of the Soviet personnel.

Open-File Report↗
USGS2023

Colorado River Basin Actionable and Strategic Integrated Science and Technology (ASIST)

Introduction The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) is initiating a study approach focused on building cross-disciplinary connections to weave together the scientific knowledge related to drought conditions and effects in the Colorado River Basin. The basin is experiencing the worst drought in recorded history, posing unprecedented new challenges in the basin and in areas relying on water from the basin. Science is continually advancing, and there is an increasing need to interpret the connections between studies to predict the effects of drought and other changes affecting the Earth system. The USGS primarily works in independent disciplines and science centers to provide cutting-edge science to advance research and science applications worldwide. The complexity and volume of research that has been conducted related to drought in the Colorado River Basin is difficult to quantify. To complicate matters, studies, models, and datasets are cataloged and may be available in multiple, unrelated locations, across various internal systems, data repositories, and local offices. Furthermore, there are limited interactions and interfaces between scientists and partners working in different science disciplines; in many cases, individual science products require stakeholders to integrate complex interdisciplinary data across geographical and topical extents. The diverse array of interdisciplinary science and science products produced by the USGS highlights the need for a wide ranging collaborative support structure.

Arizona, California, Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico,↗
USGS2013

U.S. Geological Survey core science systems strategy: Characterizing, synthesizing, and understanding the critical zone through a modular science framework

Executive Summary Core Science Systems is a new mission of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) that resulted from the 2007 Science Strategy, “Facing Tomorrow’s Challenges: U.S. Geological Survey Science in the Decade 2007–2017.” This report describes the Core Science Systems vision and outlines a strategy to facilitate integrated characterization and understanding of the complex Earth system. The vision and suggested actions are bold and far-reaching, describing a conceptual model and framework to enhance the ability of the USGS to bring its core strengths to bear on pressing societal problems through data integration and scientific synthesis across the breadth of science. The context of this report is inspired by a direction set forth in the 2007 Science Strategy. Specifically, ecosystem-based approaches provide the underpinnings for essentially all science themes that define the USGS. Every point on Earth falls within a specific ecosystem where data, other information assets, and the expertise of USGS and its many partners can be employed to quantitatively understand how that ecosystem functions and how it responds to natural and anthropogenic disturbances. Every benefit society obtains from the planet— food, water, raw materials to build infrastructure, homes and automobiles, fuel to heat homes and cities, and many others— are derived from or affect ecosystems. The vision for Core Science Systems builds on core strengths of the USGS in characterizing and understanding complex Earth and biological systems through research, modeling, mapping, and the production of high quality data on the Nation’s natural resource infrastructure. Together, these research activities provide a foundation for ecosystem-based approaches through geologic mapping, topographic mapping, and biodiversity mapping. The vision describes a framework founded on these core mapping strengths that makes it easier for USGS scientists to discover critical information, share and publish results, and identify potential collaborations that transcend all USGS missions. The framework is designed to improve the efficiency of scientific work within USGS by establishing a means to preserve and recall data for future applications, organizing existing scientific knowledge and data to facilitate new use of older information, and establishing a future workflow that naturally integrates new data, applications, and other science products to make interdisciplinary research easier and more efficient. Given the increasing need for integrated data and interdisciplinary approaches to solve modern problems, leadership by the Core Science Systems mission will facilitate problem solving by all USGS missions in ways not formerly possible. The report lays out a strategy to achieve this vision through three goals with accompanying objectives and actions. The first goal builds on and enhances the strengths of the Core Science Systems mission in characterizing and understanding the Earth system from the geologic framework to the topographic characteristics of the land surface and biodiversity across the Nation. The second goal enhances and develops new strengths in computer and information science to make it easier for USGS scientists to discover data and models, share and publish results, and discover connections between scientific information and knowledge. The third goal brings additional focus to research and development methods to address complex issues affecting society that require integration of knowledge and new methods for synthesizing scientific information. Collectively, the report lays out a strategy to create a seamless connection between all USGS activities to accelerate and make USGS science more efficient by fully integrating disciplinary expertise within a new and evolving science paradigm for a changing world in the 21st century.

Circular↗

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