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USGS2009

Fort Collins Science Center Ecosystem Dynamics Branch

Complex natural resource issues require understanding a web of interactions among ecosystem components that are (1) interdisciplinary, encompassing physical, chemical, and biological processes; (2) spatially complex, involving movements of animals, water, and airborne materials across a range of landscapes and jurisdictions; and (3) temporally complex, occurring over days, weeks, or years, sometimes involving response lags to alteration or exhibiting large natural variation. Scientists in the Ecosystem Dynamics Branch of the U.S. Geological Survey, Fort Collins Science Center, investigate a diversity of these complex natural resource questions at the landscape and systems levels. This Fact Sheet describes the work of the Ecosystems Dynamics Branch, which is focused on energy and land use, climate change and long-term integrated assessments, herbivore-ecosystem interactions, fire and post-fire restoration, and environmental flows and river restoration.

Fact Sheet↗
USGS2019

Hurricane Sandy impacts on coastal wetland resilience

The goal of this research was to evaluate the impacts of Hurricane Sandy on surface elevation trends in estuarine marshes located across the northeast region of the United States from Virginia to Maine using data from an opportunistic (in other words, not strategic) and collaborative network (from here on, an opportunistic network) of surface elevation table-marker horizon (SET-MH) stations. First, we built a data-base of metadata for 965 individual stations from 96 unique geographical locations that included the location, geomorphic setting, and wetland type for each SET-MH station. The dominant estuarine settings included in the analyses were back-barrier lagoonal marshes and emergent marshes along embayments and tidal tributaries. We then calculated prestorm elevation trends to compare to poststorm elevation measurements to determine the storm impact on each station trend. We hypothesized that the effect of Hurricane Sandy on marsh elevation trends would differ by position relative to landfall (right or left) and distance from landfall in southern New Jersey, as both of these variables influence the presence or absence of storm surge as a result of the physical characteristics of tropical cyclones (in other words, strongest winds typically occur to the right of landfall). Storm surge was spatially less extensive and less deep (~1 meter [m]) in marshes located to the left (in other words, south) of landfall compared to marshes located to the right (in other words, north) of landfall where storm surge covered a larger area and was deeper (3–4 m). About 63 percent of 223 eligible stations had a poststorm trend that was similar to the prestorm trend (in other words, less than ±5 millimeters [mm]), indicating little storm impact on elevation trends at those sites. The remaining 37 percent of stations exhibited significant poststorm deviations from the prestorm trend (in other words, greater than ±5 mm). Of these, stations located to the left of landfall had a significant and greater deviation in their elevation trend, and the deviation was more likely to be positive (elevation gain) compared to marshes located to the right of landfall, which had a significant deviation in their elevation trend that was more likely to be negative (elevation loss). This finding is directly related to storm surge impacts on marsh sediment deposition, where deep storm surge (3–4 m) results in sediment deposition in habitats inland of coastal marshes but less so in the marshes themselves. Substrate compaction by the storm surge over-burden may have contributed to elevation loss, but this was not measured because sufficient marker horizon data were not available for analysis. In contrast, to the left of landfall the wind-driven flooding of sediment laden water pushed into the headwaters of rivers and small bays with an ~1 m surge, and resulted in more prevalent sediment deposition on the marsh surfaces and elevation gain. In general, the findings support previous research showing that the physical characteristics of the storm (for example, wind speed, storm surge height, impact angle of landfall) combined with the local wetland conditions (for example, marsh productivity, groundwater level, tide height) are important factors determining a storm’s impact on soil elevation, and that the soil elevation response can vary widely among multiple wetland sites impacted by the same storm and among different storms for the same wetland site. The final objective of this project was to create a framework using metadata from the opportunistic network of SET-MH stations that could be used to develop a strategic monitoring network designed to address specific climate change impacts and related phenomena identified by land managers and stakeholders. We evaluated the spatial distribution and density of SET-MH stations in relation to geographic coverage, marsh setting, availability of public land, and historical storm surge footprints and hurricane return intervals in order to identify gaps in our understanding of risk and our ability to assess it. Analyses revealed that the general geographic coverage of SET-MH stations is limited given the low percentage of marsh patches with stations, low density of stations, the clumped distribution of stations, and the often limited and uneven distribution of stations in wetlands with a high historical frequency of hurricane strikes and storm surge impacts. These findings can be used by managers and planners to inform the creation of a strategic monitoring network that can, in turn, inform management and adaptation plans for coastal resources in the region. Final plan designs will need to consider financial and infrastructural support required for station maintenance, as well as data collection and management over the long term.

Open-File Report↗
USGS2024

Using climate-fire analog mapping to inform climate change adaptation strategies for wildland fire in protected areas of the conterminous US

Potential changes in wildland fire regimes due to anthropogenic climate change can be projected using data from climate models, but directly applying these meteorological variables to long-term planning and adaptive management activities may be difficult for decision makers. Analog mapping, in contrast, creates more intuitive assessments of changing fire regimes that also recognize the complex, multivariate, and multi-scalar nature of ecosystems. Here, we use data from 20 downscaled climate models under two climate forcing scenarios, Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP 4.5 and 8.5), to identify and map future climate-fire analogs for 655 protected areas in the conterminous U.S. based on annual temperature, cumulative precipitation amount and seasonality, and fire regime potentials derived from a simple process-based fire frequency model. Patterns of analogs were heavily influenced by gradients in latitude and topography, with longer time frames (end-of-century conditions) and the more extreme climate forcing scenario resulting in greater analog distances and more ensemble entropy (i.e., less consensus among climate models regarding the closest analog for a given management unit). Finer scale analyses for three protected areas (Yellowstone and Great Smoky Mountains National Parks, White Mountain National Forest) illustrate how climate-fire analog mapping can improve insight into the types of ecosystem responses that might occur under similar management conditions. Federally protected areas such as national parks, forests, and wildlife refuges have long served as reference sites for the study of fire regimes, a role that is likely to continue because many of these units are managed to allow at least some ecosystem processes to operate independently. The results suggest that analog mapping approaches are well-suited as part of qualitative assessments within climate- and fire-aware adaptive management processes. The use of analogs to depict relatable, real-world depictions of possible ecosystem changes in a given place, can help managers make more strategic choices about when and where to resist, accept, or direct climate change-driven ecological change.

Global Environmental Change Advances↗
USGS1935

Geology and ground-water resources of the island of Oahu, Hawaii

Oahu, one of the islands of the Hawaiian group, lies in the Mid-Pacific 2,100 miles southwest of San Francisco. The principal city is Honolulu. The Koolau Range makes up the eastern part of the island, and the Waianae Range the western part. Both are extinct basaltic volcanoes deeply dissected by erosion. The Koolau Volcano was the later to become extinct. The Waianae Range is made up of three groups of lavas erupted in Tertiary and possibly in early Pleistocene time. The exposed part of the older lava is nearly 2,000 feet thick and consists largely of thin-bedded pahoehoe. It is separated in most places from the middle lavas by an angular unconformity and talus breccia and in a few places by an erosional unconformity. The middle basalts are about 2,000 feet thick and closely resemble the lower ones except that they contain more aa. The upper lavas reach a thickness of about 2,300 feet and are mostly massive aa flows. The last eruptions produced large cinder cones and some nephelite basalts. The Waianae Volcano, like other Hawaiian volcanoes, produced only small amounts of ash, and the lavas were largely extruded from fissures a few feet wide, now occupied by dikes. The center of activity was near Kolekole Pass, at the head of Lualualei Valley. The Koolau Volcano is made up of two groups of lavas extruded in Tertiary and early Pleistocene (?) time. The older group, the Kailua volcanic series, is greatly altered by hydrothermal action and was extruded from fissures near Lanikai. The flows of the younger group, the Koolau volcanic series, were extruded from fissures about a mile south of the Kailua rift and have an exposed thickness of about 3,000 feet. The Koolau Volcano produced even less ash than the Waianae Volcano, and its flows are thin-bedded pahoehoe and aa. The eruptive center of the Koolau Volcano lies between Kaneohe and Waimanalo. Great amounts of both the Waianae and Koolau Ranges were removed by fluvial and marine erosion during the Pleistocene. The master streams are characterized by deep amphitheater-headed valleys. After this erosion cycle the island was submerged more than 1,200 feet, and these great valleys were drowned and alluviated. Besides this submergence, several strand lines, preserved up to 100 feet above present sea level occur, which may be due to world-wide changes in sea level in response to the withdrawal and restoration of water concurrent with the advances and recessions of the polar ice caps and to accompanying changes in the ocean floor. During this time of shifting ocean levels spasmodic eruptions occurred on the southeast end of the Koolau Range, producing numerous lava flows and tuff cones, most of which are nephelite basalt. The last of these eruptions occurred in Recent time. A description of the climate, rates of run-off, and results of experiments to determine evaporation and transpiration in the areas of high rainfall are given. It was found that the consumptive use decreases materially and becomes a very small percentage of the rainfall in the areas of high precipitation. The lava rocks of the island are very permeable and, because of a rainfall reaching a maximum of 300 inches a year, carry large amounts of ground water, confined and unconfined, basal and perched. The basal ground water floats on salt water because of its lower specific gravity. Consequently for each foot the water table stands above sea level, salt water lies about 42 feet below sea level, in accordance with the sea along the coast as basal ground water. In most places the lava rocks along the shore are overlain by an impermeable or nearly impermeable caprock consisting of submerged lateritic soils and marine noncalcareous sediments. These deposits retard the escape of basal ground water into the sea and give rise to artesian water, but unlike most other artesian systems, this one has no lower restraining formation. The artesian water is the principal source of domestic, municipal, and irrigation supplies. The average annual quantity pumped for the period 1928 to 1933 amounted to about 105,000,000,000 gallons, nearly 90 percent of which came from Koolau hasalt and the remainder from Waianae basalt. There are ten artesian areas in the Koolau Range and two in the Waianae Range. Hydraulic gradients in these basins were found to range from 1.2 to 3 feet to the mile. Because of these extremely flat gradients and the high permeability of the aquifers it is possible to reverse the hydraulic gradients by draft and make the water flow from one artesian area to another. The artesian water levels fluctuate in response to seasonal variations in draft and recharge and in a lesser way to tidal, barometric, and seismic pressures. The water, as shown by chemical analysis, is of excellent quality except where it is contaminated with sea water. Methods have been devised for freshening wells that have gone salty, for detecting leaks, for sealing leaky and defective wells, and for recharging the artesian basins. Owing to the danger of the wells becoming brackish with increased draft, it is believed that further large developments will be more successful if shafts are sunk to sea level in the basalt as far inland as practicable, and tunnels are driven from the bottom of the shafts near the top of the saturated zone. Favorable places for such development exist in Honolulu. In addition to the basal water in the volcanic rocks, water is found in the recent gravel, beach, and dune deposits, and the emerged reef limestone. This water has been recovered by wells and tunnels, and there are favorable localities for developing additional water of this type. The island contains two types of basal springs—those like the Pearl Harbor Springs, which issue from basalt and are supplied by overflow and leakage from the artesian basin, and those which issue from the coastal-plain sediments and are mainly return irrigation water. The total quantity of basal ground water issuing as springs is estimated to be 100,000,000 gallons a day. Ground water occurs at high levels, confined by dikes and perched on tuff, alluvium, and soil beds. These structures give rise to innumerable high-level springs. In the Koolau Range 60 tunnels yield about 33,000,000 gallons daily, of which about 95 percent is obtained from tunnels penetrating the dike complex of the Koolau volcanic series, about 2 percent from tunnels entering post-Koolau ash or tuff deposits, and the remainder from tunnels whose geologic relations are not certainly known. The average daily yield of the tunnels that recover dike water is 2,330 gallons a foot, but the average daily yield of the tunnels in post-Koolau tuff is 450 gallons a foot, and that of the tunnels in alluvium or soil is only 23 gallons a foot. Owing largely to the much lower rainfall on the Waianac Range, its 35 tunnels (not including two new tunnels under construction) yield only about 2,400,000 gallons daily, about 94 percent of which is believed to be obtained from dike systems. The average daily yield of the tunnels in this range that are supplied by dike systems is 581 gallons a foot, as compared to 5 gallons a foot from tunnels in ash or tuff. An extensive tunnel system is proposed to develop a large supply of high-level water for Honolulu from the dike complex of the Koolau series, and high-level water can be recovered by tunnels at many other places. The average daily discharge of all high-level springs in the Koolau Range is about 58,000,000 gallons, of which about 94 percent comes from the Koolau dike complex and about 6 percent from post-Koolau volcanic rocks. The average daily discharge of all high-level springs in the Waianae Range is about 500,000 gallons of which about 81 percent issues from the dike complex.

Hawaii↗
USGS2024

A semi-mechanistic model for partitioning evapotranspiration reveals transpiration dominates the water flux in drylands

Popular evapotranspiration (ET) partitioning methods make assumptions that might not be well-suited to dryland ecosystems, such as high sensitivity of plant water-use efficiency (WUE) to vapor pressure deficit (VPD). Our objectives were to (a) create an ET partitioning model that can produce fine-scale estimates of transpiration (T) in drylands, and (b) use this approach to evaluate how climate controls T and WUE across ecosystem types and timescales along a dryland aridity gradient. We developed a novel, semi-mechanistic ET partitioning method using a Bayesian approach that constrains abiotic evaporation using process-based models, and loosely constrains time-varying WUE within an autoregressive framework. We used this method to estimate daily T and weekly WUE across seven dryland ecosystem types and found that T dominates ET across the aridity gradient. Then, we applied cross-wavelet coherence analysis to evaluate the temporal coherence between focal response variables (WUE and T/ET) and environmental variables. At yearly scales, we found that WUE at less arid, higher elevation sites was primarily limited by atmospheric moisture demand, and WUE at more arid, lower elevation sites was primarily limited by moisture supply. At sub-yearly timescales, WUE and VPD were sporadically correlated. Hence, ecosystem-scale dryland WUE is not always sensitive to changes in VPD at short timescales, despite this being a common assumption in many ET partitioning models. This new ET partitioning method can be used in dryland ecosystems to better understand how climate influences physically and biologically driven water fluxes.

New Mexico↗
USGS2008

Climatic and anthropogenic factors affecting river discharge to the global ocean, 1951-2000

During the last half of the 20th century, cumulative annual discharge from 137 representative rivers (watershed areas ranging from 0.3 to 6300 ?? 103??km2) to the global ocean remained constant, although annual discharge from about one-third of these rivers changed by more than 30%. Discharge trends for many rivers reflected mostly changes in precipitation, primarily in response to short- and longer-term atmospheric-oceanic signals; with the notable exception of the Parana, Mississippi, Niger and Cunene rivers, few of these "normal" rivers experienced significant changes in either discharge or precipitation. Cumulative discharge from many mid-latitude rivers, in contrast, decreased by 60%, reflecting in large part impacts due to damming, irrigation and interbasin water transfers. A number of high-latitude and high-altitude rivers experienced increased discharge despite generally declining precipitation. Poorly constrained meteorological and hydrological data do not seem to explain fully these "excess" rivers; changed seasonality in discharge, decreased storage and/or decreased evapotranspiration also may play important roles. ?? 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Global and Planetary Change↗
USGS2005

Hydrologic response in karstic-ridge wetlands to rainfall and evapotranspiration, central Florida, 2001-2003

Two internally drained karstic wetlands in central Florida-Boggy Marsh at the Hilochee Wildlife Management Area and a large unnamed wetland at the Lyonia Preserve-were studied during 2001-03 to gain a better understanding of the net-recharge function that these wetlands provide, the significance of exchanges with ground water with regard to wetland water budgets, and the variability in wetland hydrologic response to a range of climate conditions. These natural, relatively remote and unaltered wetlands were selected to provide a baseline of natural wetland hydrologic variability to which anthropogenic influences on wetland hydrology could be compared. Large departures from normal rainfall during the study were fortuitous, and allowed monitoring of hydrologic processes over a wide range of climate conditions. Wetland responses varied greatly as a result of climate conditions that ranged from moderate drought to extremely moist. Anthropogenic activities influenced water levels at both study sites; however, because these activities were brief relative to the duration of the study, sufficient data were collected during unimpacted periods to allow for the following conclusions to be made. Water budgets developed for Boggy Marsh and the Lyonia large wetland showed strong similarity between the flux terms of rainfall, evaporation, net change in storage, and the net ground-water exchange residual. Runoff was assumed to be negligible. Of the total annual flux at Boggy Marsh, rainfall accounted for 45 percent; evaporation accounted for 25 percent; net change in storage accounted for 25 percent; and the net residual accounted for 5 percent. At the Lyonia large wetland, rainfall accounted for 44 percent; evaporation accounted for 29 percent; net change in storage accounted for 21 percent; and the net residual accounted for 6 percent of the total annual flux. Wetland storage and ground-water exchange were important when compared to the total water budget at both wetlands. Even though rainfall was far above average during the study, wetland evaporation volumetrically exceeded rainfall. Ground-water inflow was effective in partially offsetting the negative residual between rainfall and evaporation, thus adding to wetland storage. Ground-water inflow was most common at both wetlands when rainfall continued for days or weeks, or during a week with more than about 2.5 inches of rainfall. Large decreases in wetland storage were associated with large negative fluxes of evaporation and ground-water exchange. The response of wetland water levels to rainfall showed a strong and similar relation at both study sites; however, the greater variability in the relation of wetland water-level change to rainfall at higher rainfall rates indicated that hydrologic processes other than rainfall became more important in the response of the wetland. Changes in wetland water levels seemed to be related more to vertical gradients than to lateral gradients. The largest wetland water-level rises were associated mostly with lower vertical gradients, when vertical head differences were below the 18-month average; however, at the Lyonia large wetland, extremely large lateral gradients toward the wetland during late June 2002 may have contributed to substantial gains in wetland water. During the remainder of the study, wetland water-level rises were associated mostly with decreasing vertical gradients and highly variable lateral gradients. Conversely, wetland water-level decreases were associated mostly with increasing vertical gradients and lateral gradients away from the wetland, particularly during the dry season. The potential for lateral ground-water exchange with the wetlands varied substantially more than that for vertical exchange. Potential for vertical losses of wetland water to ground water was highest during a dry period from December 2001 to June 2002, during the wet season of 2002, and for several months into the following dry season. Lateral he

Scientific Investigations Report↗
USGS2006

Researchers consider U.S. Southwest's response to warmer, drier conditions

In 2000, the popular press frequently referred to reports that the southwestern United States might experience a shift from relatively wet to dry conditions during the next couple of decades (see http://topex‐www.jpl.nasa.gov/discover/PDO.html). These predictions stemmed from observations that the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) appeared to abruptly change from a “positive” to a “negative” phase in 1999 (Figure 1). During the mid‐twentieth century, a similar negative phase of the PDO was accompanied by prolonged dry conditions in the southwest. By extrapolation, some climatologists predicted future drought in the southwest. Such a change would heavily affect land use planning in the region, because national demographics have stressed the region's resources over the past century From 1990 to 2000, for instance, the population of Nevada and Arizona increased by almost 2.3 million people (http://www.census.gov/population/www/cen2000/respop.html). To discuss potential scenarios of landscape and ecosystem response to 25 years of hot and dry climate, scientists from diverse disciplines gathered at the University of Arizona in April 2001. The objectives of this workshop were to address evidence supporting predictions of warmer and drier climate and the possible landscape responses (http://geology.wr.usgs.gov/sw‐workshop/).

Eos, Transactions, American Geophysical Union↗
USGS2023

Organic layers preserved in ice patches: A new record of Holocene environmental change on the Beartooth Plateau, USA

Growing season temperatures play a crucial role in controlling treeline elevation at regional to global scales. However, understanding of treeline dynamics in response to long-term changes in temperature is limited. In this study, we analyze pollen, plant macrofossils, and charcoal preserved in organic layers within a 10,400-year-old ice patch and in sediment from a 6000-year-old wetland located above present-day treeline in the Beartooth Mountains, Wyoming, to explore the relationship between Holocene climate variability and shifts in treeline elevation. Pollen data indicate a lower-than-present treeline between 9000 and 6200 cal yr BP during the warm, dry summer and cold winter conditions of the early Holocene. Increases in arboreal pollen at 6200 cal yr BP suggest an upslope treeline expansion when summers became cooler and wetter. A possible hiatus in the wetland record at ca. 4200–3000 cal yr BP suggests increased snow and ice cover at high elevations and a lowering of treeline. Treeline position continued to fluctuate with growing season warming and cooling during the late-Holocene. Periods of high fire activity correspond with times of increased woody cover at high elevations. The two records indicate that climate was an important driver of vegetation and treeline change during the Holocene. Early Holocene treeline was governed by moisture limitations, whereas late-Holocene treeline was sensitive to increases in growing season temperatures. Climate projections for the region suggest warmer temperatures could decrease effective growing season moisture at high elevations resulting in a reduction of treeline elevation.

Montana, Wyoming↗
USGS2019

Monitoring and conservation of Japanese Murrelets and related seabirds in Japan

Of the 24 species in the Auk (or Alcidae) family of seabirds living in the northern hemisphere, 22 reside within the North Pacific Ocean. These “penguins of the north” use their small wings to “fly” underwater, some to more than 200 meters, where they catch and eat a variety of small fish and invertebrates. In terms of sheer numbers (>65 million) and food consumption, the Auks dominate seabird communities on our continental shelves and they serve as indicators of the health of our ocean. If Auk populations are not all thriving, then we should be concerned about the status of the oceans, plankton and fish that normally sustain them. A few Auk “tribes” genera) are abundant and widespread (such as Uria murres and Aethia auklets), and some are rare and isolated such as Synthliboramphus murrelets, including the Japanese “Crested” Murrelet). Only 8 species of Auk breed in Japan, including species that have either widespread or isolated populations in the North Pacific. During the past century, most of these Auks have declined dramatically in Japan from many causes, including the introduction of predatory rats and cats to breeding islands, bycatch in fishing nets, alteration of food supplies by fishing and climate change, oil spills, and destruction of seabird nesting habitats. Widespread species such as the Common Murre and Tufted Puffin were once common in Japan but now breed in low numbers at only a few locations. Probably common in the past, small numbers of the widespread Ancient Murrelet were recently re-discovered breeding at Teuri Island, which is also home to the world’s largest colony of Rhinoceros Auklet, another widespread species. Though common throughout the North Pacific, Pigeon Guillemots, breed only in the southern Kuril Islands. Their population status is unknown, but they were never considered common in Japan. In contrast, Spectacled Guillemots are an example of an uncommon and isolated population of Auk. They nest along coasts of the Sea of Okhotsk and Sea of Japan, and populations have declined in recent decades. The Long-billed Murrelet has a similar distribution to Spectacled Guillemot, and once bred in Hokkaido, but populations appear to have been extirpated. The Japanese Murrelet has a very small world population, and breeds at only a few locations in southern Japan and the Republic of Korea. The international community of research and conservation biologists is greatly concerned about the ability of this species—probably the rarest of all Auks in the world— to maintain its population size. Owing to its small size and high metabolic demand, this species is especially vulnerable to any stress that increases its food requirements such as changing fish stocks, disturbance on feeding or wintering grounds, or changing ocean climate. Immediate management actions are needed to preserve Japanese Murrelets and other Auks in Japan, by such means as eradicating rats and cats on breeding islands, altering fishing gear to minimize bycatch, and reducing human disturbance to nesting habitats. More research and monitoring of Auk populations in Japan is needed to track population trends, and further identify factors responsible for declines. Interaction between governments and biologists at regional and international levels will be mutually beneficial as we all strive to conserve precious resources and biodiversity in the northwest Pacific, and particularly the Japanese islands.

Conference Paper↗
USGS2016

Invariant polar bear habitat selection during a period of sea ice loss

Climate change is expected to alter many species' habitat. A species' ability to adjust to these changes is partially determined by their ability to adjust habitat selection preferences to new environmental conditions. Sea ice loss has forced polar bears ( Ursus maritimus ) to spend longer periods annually over less productive waters, which may be a primary driver of population declines. A negative population response to greater time spent over less productive water implies, however, that prey are not also shifting their space use in response to sea ice loss. We show that polar bear habitat selection in the Chukchi Sea has not changed between periods before and after significant sea ice loss, leading to a 75% reduction of highly selected habitat in summer. Summer was the only period with loss of highly selected habitat, supporting the contention that summer will be a critical period for polar bears as sea ice loss continues. Our results indicate that bears are either unable to shift selection patterns to reflect new prey use patterns or that there has not been a shift towards polar basin waters becoming more productive for prey. Continued sea ice loss is likely to further reduce habitat with population-level consequences for polar bears.

Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sci↗
USGS2007

Pattern and potential causes of White-faced Ibis, Plegadis chihi, establishment in the northern prairie and parkland region of North America

The Northern Prairie and Parkland Waterbird Conservation Plan calls for renewed attention to determining the current status of waterbird populations, their distributions, and conservation needs. It highlights the need for baseline information on the White-faced Ibis (Plegadis chihi). In response, we examined the historical and current distribution of the ibis in North Dakota and summarized first sightings and nest records for the provinces and other states composing the northern prairie and parkland region. The establishment of breeding colonies of White-faced Ibis here may be due to climate and precipitation patterns, invasion and spread of Narrowleaf Cattail (Typha angustifolia), changes in agricultural practices, habitat loss and range expansion in the southern and western portions of the species' range, and increases in ibis populations in the Intermountain West. We placed special emphasis on North Dakota, a state for which there is scant published information concerning the current status of this species. In recent decades, the ibis has become a regular breeding-season resident in North Dakota and in other areas of the northern prairie and parkland region. From 1882 to 2002, there were 145 reports of one or more White-faced Ibis in North Dakota, including 93 reports during the breeding season (15 May to 31 August), 49 during the non-breeding season (1 September to 14 May), and three for which the season of occurrence was not reported. Prior to the 1960s, there were only three records of the species in North Dakota. Observations of White-faced Ibises in North Dakota increased dramatically between the 1960s and the early 21st century, and the species has been observed nearly annually since 1971. The first White-faced Ibis nesting activity in the state was recorded in 1978, and to date, there have been 21 known records of nesting activity in the state. The species nested in large (>300 ha) semipermanent or permanent wetlands within mixed-species colonies ranging in areal extent from small (0.1 ha) to fairly large (27 ha), and colonies were located in patches of emergent vegetation dominated by cattails (Typha) and bulrushes (Scirpus). We classify the White-faced Ibis as a fairly common migrant and a locally uncommon breeder east of the Missouri River and a casual migrant west of the Missouri River.

Canadian Field-Naturalist↗
USGS2009

Past and current trends of change in a dune prairie/oak savanna reconstructed through a multiple-scale history

The history of a rapidly changing mosaic of prairie and oak savanna in northern Indiana was reconstructed using several methods emphasizing different time scales ranging from annual to millennial. Vegetation change was monitored for 8 yr using plots and for 30 yr using aerial photographs. A 20th century fire history was reconstructed from the stand structure of multiple-stemmed trees and fire scars. General Land Office Survey data were used to reconstruct the forest of A.D. 1834. Fossil pollen and charcoal records were used to reconstruct the last 4000 yr of vegetation and fire history. Since its deposition along the shore of Lake Michigan about 4000 yr ago, the area has followed a classical primary dune successional sequence, gradually changing from pine forest to prairie/oak savanna between A.D. 264 and 1007. This successional trend, predicted in the models of Henry Cowles, occurred even though the climate cooled and prairies elsewhere in the region retreated. Severe fires in the 19th century reduced most tree species but led to a temporary increase in Populus tremuloides . During the last few decades, the prairie has been invaded by oaks and other woody species, primarily because of fire suppression since A.D. 1972. The rapid and complex changes now occurring are a response to the compounded effects of plant succession, intense burning and logging in the 19th century, recent fire suppression, and possibly increased airborne deposition of nitrates. The compilation of several historical research techniques emphasizing different time scales allows this study of the interactions between multiple disturbance variables.

Journal of Vegetation Science↗
USGS2025

Global methane budget 2000-2020

Understanding and quantifying the global methane (CH 4 ) budget is important for assessing realistic pathways to mitigate climate change. CH 4 is the second most important human-influenced greenhouse gas in terms of climate forcing after carbon dioxide (CO 2 ), and both emissions and atmospheric concentrations of CH 4 have continued to increase since 2007 after a temporary pause. The relative importance of CH 4 emissions compared to those of CO 2 for temperature change is related to its shorter atmospheric lifetime, stronger radiative effect, and acceleration in atmospheric growth rate over the past decade, the causes of which are still debated. Two major challenges in quantifying the factors responsible for the observed atmospheric growth rate arise from diverse, geographically overlapping CH 4 sources and from the uncertain magnitude and temporal change in the destruction of CH 4 by short-lived and highly variable hydroxyl radicals (OH). To address these challenges, we have established a consortium of multidisciplinary scientists under the umbrella of the Global Carbon Project to improve, synthesise, and update the global CH 4 budget regularly and to stimulate new research on the methane cycle. Following Saunois et al. (2016, 2020), we present here the third version of the living review paper dedicated to the decadal CH 4 budget, integrating results of top-down CH 4 emission estimates (based on in situ and Greenhouse Gases Observing SATellite (GOSAT) atmospheric observations and an ensemble of atmospheric inverse-model results) and bottom-up estimates (based on process-based models for estimating land surface emissions and atmospheric chemistry, inventories of anthropogenic emissions, and data-driven extrapolations). We present a budget for the most recent 2010–2019 calendar decade (the latest period for which full data sets are available), for the previous decade of 2000–2009 and for the year 2020. The revision of the bottom-up budget in this 2025 edition benefits from important progress in estimating inland freshwater emissions, with better counting of emissions from lakes and ponds, reservoirs, and streams and rivers. This budget also reduces double counting across freshwater and wetland emissions and, for the first time, includes an estimate of the potential double counting that may exist (average of 23 Tg CH 4 yr −1 ). Bottom-up approaches show that the combined wetland and inland freshwater emissions average 248 [159–369] Tg CH 4 yr −1 for the 2010–2019 decade. Natural fluxes are perturbed by human activities through climate, eutrophication, and land use. In this budget, we also estimate, for the first time, this anthropogenic component contributing to wetland and inland freshwater emissions. Newly available gridded products also allowed us to derive an almost complete latitudinal and regional budget based on bottom-up approaches. For the 2010–2019 decade, global CH 4 emissions are estimated by atmospheric inversions (top-down) to be 575 Tg CH 4 yr −1 (range 553–586, corresponding to the minimum and maximum estimates of the model ensemble). Of this amount, 369 Tg CH 4 yr −1 or ∼ 65 % is attributed to direct anthropogenic sources in the fossil, agriculture, and waste and anthropogenic biomass burning (range 350–391 Tg CH 4 yr −1 or 63 %–68 %). For the 2000–2009 period, the atmospheric inversions give a slightly lower total emission than for 2010–2019, by 32 Tg CH 4 yr −1 (range 9–40). The 2020 emission rate is the highest of the period and reaches 608 Tg CH 4 yr −1 (range 581–627), which is 12 % higher than the average emissions in the 2000s. Since 2012, global direct anthropogenic CH 4 emission trends have been tracking scenarios that assume no or minimal climate mitigation policies proposed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (shared socio-economic pathways SSP5 and SSP3). Bottom-up methods suggest 16 % (94 Tg CH 4 yr −1 ) larger global emissions (669 Tg CH 4 yr −1 , range 512–849) than top-down inversion methods for the 2010–2019 period. The discrepancy between the bottom-up and the top-down budgets has been greatly reduced compared to the previous differences (167 and 156 Tg CH 4 yr −1 in Saunois et al. (2016, 2020) respectively), and for the first time uncertainties in bottom-up and top-down budgets overlap. Although differences have been reduced between inversions and bottom-up, the most important source of uncertainty in the global CH 4 budget is still attributable to natural emissions, especially those from wetlands and inland freshwaters. The tropospheric loss of methane, as the main contributor to methane lifetime, has been estimated at 563 [510–663] Tg CH 4 yr −1 based on chemistry–climate models. These values are slightly larger than for 2000–2009 due to the impact of the rise in atmospheric methane and remaining large uncertainty ( ∼ 25 %). The total sink of CH 4 is estimated at 633 [507–796] Tg CH 4 yr −1 by the bottom-up approaches and at 554 [550–567] Tg CH 4 yr −1 by top-down approaches. However, most of the top-down models use the same OH distribution, which introduces less uncertainty to the global budget than is likely justified. For 2010–2019, agriculture and waste contributed an estimated 228 [213–242] Tg CH 4 yr −1 in the top-down budget and 211 [195–231] Tg CH 4 yr −1 in the bottom-up budget. Fossil fuel emissions contributed 115 [100–124] Tg CH 4 yr −1 in the top-down budget and 120 [117–125] Tg CH 4 yr −1 in the bottom-up budget. Biomass and biofuel burning contributed 27 [26–27] Tg CH 4 yr −1 in the top-down budget and 28 [21–39] Tg CH 4 yr −1 in the bottom-up budget. We identify five major priorities for improving the CH 4 budget: (i) producing a global, high-resolution map of water-saturated soils and inundated areas emitting CH 4 based on a robust classification of different types of emitting ecosystems; (ii) further development of process-based models for inland-water emissions; (iii) intensification of CH 4 observations at local (e.g. FLUXNET-CH 4 measurements, urban-scale monitoring, satellite imagery with pointing capabilities) to regional scales (surface networks and global remote sensing measurements from satellites) to constrain both bottom-up models and atmospheric inversions; (iv) improvements of transport models and the representation of photochemical sinks in top-down inversions; and (v) integration of 3D variational inversion systems using isotopic and/or co-emitted species such as ethane as well as information in the bottom-up inventories on anthropogenic super-emitters detected by remote sensing (mainly oil and gas sector but also coal, agriculture, and landfills) to improve source partitioning.

Earth System Science Data↗
USGS2024

Same streams in a different forest? Investigations of forest harvest legacies and future trajectories across 30 years of stream habitat monitoring on the Tongass National Forest, Alaska

The effects of timber harvest practices and climate change have altered forest ecosystems in southeast Alaska. However, quantification of patterns and trends in stream habitats associated with these forests is limited owing to a paucity of data available in remote watersheds. Here, we analyzed a 30-year dataset from southeast Alaska's Tongass National Forest to understand how these factors shape stream habitats. First, we examined differences between broad management classes (i.e., harvested and non-harvested) that have been used to guide stream channel restoration goals. Second, we assessed associations between intrinsic landscape characteristics, watershed management, and timber harvest legacies on aquatic habitat metrics. And third, we examined trends in stream habitat metrics over the duration of the dataset to anticipate future management challenges for these systems. Small effect sizes for some harvest-related predictors suggest that some stream habitat metrics, such as pool densities, are less responsive than others, and management practices such as protecting riparian buffers as well as post-harvest restoration may help conserve fish habitats. Large wood densities increased with time since harvest at sites harvested >50 years ago, indicating that multiple decades of post-harvest forest regrowth may contribute large wood to streams (possibly alder), but that it is not enough time for old-growth trees (e.g., spruce, Picea, or hemlock, Tsuga,), classified as key wood, to develop and be delivered to streams. The declining trend in key wood (i.e., the largest size class of wood) regardless of management history may reflect that pre-harvest legacy old-growth trees are declining along streams, with low replacement. The introduction of wood to maintain complex stream habitats may fill this gap until riparian stands again contribute structural key wood to streams. Trend analyses indicate an increasing spatial extent of undercut banks that may also be influenced by shifting hydrologic regimes under climate change.

Alaska↗
USGS2025

How quickly do brook trout lose long-term thermal acclimation?

Abundances of coldwater adapted stream fish populations are declining largely due to anthropogenic influences, including increased temperature. To persist in streams with unsuitable thermal habitat, fish must move to coldwater patches, acclimate, or adapt to water temperatures above thermal optima. Brook trout, a coldwater adapted salmonid, has previously displayed physiological plasticity and the ability for reversible thermal acclimation when reared at higher temperatures. However, because stream temperatures are not static, it is important to explore the rate at which thermal acclimation occurs to evaluate whether prior thermal experience will influence future thermal performance. To determine the temporal scale in loss of thermal acclimation as water temperatures cool, we acclimated brook trout to three thermal regimes: +0 °C (ambient; mimicking the daily average water temperature of a nearby long-term study site), as well as +2 °C and +4 °C above ambient. After 2 years of being reared under those conditions, fish from the warmer treatments were moved to a common, colder temperature (ambient). We then used critical thermal maximum to measure the loss in acclimation response of fish from each treatment over time. We found that regardless of initial acclimation temperature, thermal tolerance of warm acclimated fish decreased rapidly for 1 week, then gradually decreased, and was completely lost within 42 days. This gradual loss of acclimation may be valuable to persistence in warmer streams and will be important to include in models of the impact climate change has on brook trout and other aquatic ectotherms with significant thermal plasticity.

Massachusetts↗
USGS2024

Transdisciplinary research supports the sustainability of barrier island systems threatened by climate change

The management of developed barrier islands is often piece-meal and reactionary despite the complex, dynamic nature of these systems, and sustainable practices will become increasingly difficult due to heightened pressures of climate change. Adaptation actions, including nature-based solutions, need to be thoroughly evaluated prior to implementation to understand system-wide impacts and avoid maladaptation. Anarde et al. (2024a), ( https://doi.org/10.1029/2023ef003672 ), Anarde et al. (2024b), ( https://doi.org/10.1029/2023ef004200 ) is the latest important contribution in a growing body of transdisciplinary research that more robustly evaluates the complex physical process-and-response relationship of barrier systems via sophisticated numerical modeling approaches that also interface with socioeconomic models to inform coastal management actions in response to mitigating coastal risk. This new research indicates the importance of coordinated system-scale barrier island management, as strategies to reduce coastal hazard risk in one location will directly affect adjacent communities. Further, this work demonstrates that reducing barrier management interventions may actually promote barrier recovery and sustainability in the face of sea level rise. In addition, recent advances in the analysis and application of remotely sensed data from satellites and oblique aerial photography provide scientists an unprecedented opportunity to track coastal evolution over a wide range of spatial and temporal scales at minimal cost. As sea level rise and changing storm patterns challenge the sustainable management of barrier island systems, integrating these advanced, transdisciplinary tools will enable scientists and coastal practitioners to more thoroughly evaluate coastal adaptation options, efficiently invest limited resources to mitigate coastal hazard risk for communities, support healthy ecosystems, and reduce system-wide impacts.

Earth's Future↗
USGS2020

Low stand density moderates growth declines during hot droughts in semi-arid forests

Increasing heat and aridity in coming decades is expected to negatively impact tree growth and threaten forest sustainability in dry areas. Maintaining low stand density has the potential to mitigate the negative effects of increasingly severe droughts by minimizing competitive intensity. However, the direct impact of stand density on the growing environment (i.e. soil moisture), and the specific drought metrics that best quantify that environment, are not well explored for any forest ecosystem. We examined the relationship of varying stand density (i.e. basal area) on soil moisture and stand‐level growth in a long‐term (multi‐decadal), ponderosa pine Pinus ponderosa , forest management experiment. We accounted for the influence of stand‐level density on moisture availability by measuring and modelling soil moisture using an ecosystem water balance model. To quantify the growing environment, we developed metrics of ecological drought that integrate the influence of moisture availability in the soil with moisture demand by the atmosphere. We paired these results with stand‐level dendrochronological data, avoiding the potential bias introduced from individual tree‐based assessments, and used critical climate period analysis to identify the timing and duration of these drought metrics that most relate to forest growth. We found that stand‐level growth is highly responsive to the combination of high temperature and low soil moisture. Growth in all stands was negatively related to temperature and positively related to moisture availability, although the sensitivity of growth to those conditions varied among stand density treatments. Growth enhancement during cool years is greatest in low density stands. In addition, low density stands displayed substantially higher long‐term average growth than higher density stands and maintained higher growth even when temperatures were high. Growth in low density stands also increased more than higher density stands in response to greater long‐term moisture availability. Synthesis and applications . We quantified the influence of stand‐level density on the environmental conditions that determine tree growth and related forest growth to patterns of moisture supply and demand. Our drought metrics, and analytical approach for quantifying drought impacts on forest growth, are a novel approach for assessing forest vulnerability to drought under climate change. These results provide new perspective on the potential for density management to mitigate drought stress and maintain forest stand growth during and after drought events in water‐limited forests.

Arizona↗

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