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Actualizing Indigenous Knowledge in tribal wildlife management: Basic preconditions

Indigenous Knowledge (IK) is increasingly involved in the contemporary management of natural resources. Tribal wildlife management programs in the United States may be uniquely positioned to effectively and ethically integrate their IK. While a narrow focus on the body of IK and a particular management activity may suffice for project-level integration efforts, herein we consider how IK integration at the programmatic level may be best supported. We propose a holistic conceptual framework of preconditions including sovereignty, the North American Model management, funding, cultural resources, stakeholder support, and programmatic leadership. We assess the current status and common challenges with each precondition and illustrate their potential roles for a more lasting and pervasive integration of IK into tribal wildlife management programs.

The Wildlife Society Bulletin

Integrating ecological impacts: Perspectives on drought in the Upper Missouri Headwaters, Montana, United States

Drought is a complex challenge experienced in specific locations through diverse impacts, including ecological impacts. Different professionals involved in drought preparedness and response approach the problem from different points of view, which means they may or may not recognize ecological impacts. This study examines the extent to which interviewees perceive ecological drought in the Upper Missouri Headwaters basin in southwestern Montana. Through semistructured interviews, this research investigates individuals’ perceptions of drought by analyzing how they define drought, how they describe their roles related to drought, and the extent to which they emphasize ecological impacts of drought. Results suggest that while most interviewees have an integrated understanding of drought, they tend to emphasize either ecological or nonecological impacts of drought. This focus was termed their drought orientation. Next, the analysis considers how participants understand exposure to drought. Results indicate that participants view drought as a complex problem driven by both human and natural factors. Last, the paper explores understandings of the available solution space by examining interviewees’ views on adaptive capacity, particularly factors that facilitate or hinder the ability of the Upper Missouri Headwaters region to cope with drought. Participants emphasized that adaptive capacity is both helped and hindered by institutional, cultural, and economic factors, as well as by available information and past resource management practices. Understanding how interviewees perceive the challenges of drought can shape drought preparedness and response, allowing those designing programs to better align their efforts to the perceptions of their target audience.

Montana

Valuation of rangeland ecosystem services

Economic valuation lends itself well to the anthropocentric orientation of ecosystem services. An economic perspective on ecosystems portrays them as natural assets providing a flow of goods and services valuable to individuals and society collectively. A few examples include the purification of drinking water, reduced risk from flooding and other extreme events, pollination of agricultural crops, climate regulation, and recreation opportunities from plant and animal habitat maintenance, among many others. Once these goods and services are identified and quantified, they can be monetized to complete the valuation process. The monetization of ecosystem goods and services (in the form of dollars) provides a common metric that allows for cross-comparison of attributes and evaluation of differing ecological scenarios. Complicating the monetization process is the fact that most of these goods and services are public and non-market in nature; meaning they are non-rival and non-exclusive and are typically not sold in a traditional market setting where monetary values are revealed. Instead, one must employ non-market valuation techniques, with primary valuation methods typically being very time and resource consuming, intimidating to non-economists, and often impractical. For these reasons, benefit transfer methods have gained popularity. This methodology harnesses the primary collection results of existing studies to make inferences about the economic values of non-market goods and services at an alternative policy site (in place and/or in time). For instance, if a primary valuation study on oak reestablishment on rangelands in southern California yielded a value of $30 per-acre associated with water regulation, this result can be transferred, with some adjustments, to say something about the value of an acre of oaks on rangelands in northern portions of the state. The economic valuation of rangeland ecosystem services has many roles. Economic values may be used as input into analyzing the costs and benefits associated with policies being proposed, or possibly already implemented. For example, with monetized values acting as a common metric, one could compare the 'benefits' of converting a rangeland ecosystem for commercial development (perhaps estimated at the market value of the developed land) with the foregone ecosystem service values (in addition to any land income lost) resulting from that land conversion. Similarly, ecosystem service values can be used to determine the level of return on an investment. rhis is a primary objective for private land conservation organizations who typically have very limited resources. Ecosystem service valuation can also have a role in damage assessments from incidents that require compensation such as oil spills. Additionally, valuation can be very informative when investigating regulatory programs that trade ecological assets such as wetland mitigation programs. Typically these programs are based simply on an 'acre for acre' criterion, and do not take into consideration varying welfare values associated with that ecosystem. Lastly, and most fundamental, ecosystem service valuation serves as a recognition tool for people of all backgrounds. Identifying and valuing ecosystem goods and services on rangelands brings to light the value these natural assets have to human welfare that often remain hidden do to their public and non-market attributes. This type of recognition is vital to the preservation of rangeland ecosystems in the future and the many ecological benefits they provide.

Conference Paper

Preface—Evaluating the response of critical zone processes to human impacts with sediment source fingerprinting

1) Background: Critical Zone Processes in the Anthropocene The Earth’s Critical Zone encompasses a suite of interconnected processes in the near-surface lithosphere, pedosphere, biosphere, atmosphere, and hydrosphere (Brantley et al., 2007; Lin, 2010) (Fig. 1). Processes and interactions both within and between these various Critical Zone components supports life-sustaining ecosystem services and resources that establish the foundation for humanity (NRC, 2001). This includes the formation production of fertile soils, flourishing vegetation, productive rivers, lakes and oceans, and our life-sustaining atmosphere (Gaillardet, 2014; Guo and Lin, 2016). Rapid population growth, land use intensification, and global environmental change are disturbing many of these fundamental Critical Zone processes. More than half of the Earth’s terrestrial surface is now impacted by anthropogenic activities (e.g., clearing, grazing, plowing, mining, and logging) (Hooke et al., 2012; Richter and Mobley, 2009). These changes are so widespread and pervasive that the great acceleration of socioeconomic development that occurred around 1950 (Fig. 2) has been recommended to delineate the dawn of the Anthropocene (Waters et al., 2016). Although the utility of adopting and delineating the Anthropocene as the current epoch is subject to debate (Crutzen, 2002; Ruddiman et al., 2015; Smith and Zeder, 2013), the concept effectively highlights both the nature and the extent of our global impact on Earth’s Critical Zone. Soil forming processes and ecosystem services provided by the pedosphere are central to the Critical Zone (Banwart et al., 2011; Lin, 2010). Many of these processes have been disturbed by the agricultural intensification that coincided with the great acceleration resulting in unsustainable land use practices now outpacing soil formation processes (Brantley et al., 2007). As agricultural landscapes now cover an area equivalent to what was scoured during the last glacial maximum (Amundson et al., 2007), the broad-scale intensification of anthropogenic activities has resulted in significant on- and off-site impacts. On-site, soil loss has resulted in decreases in soil fertility and agricultural yields (Ladha et al., 2009) threatening the ability to feed the world’s growing population (Brantley et al., 2007). Off-site, the excess delivery of particulate matter downstream is degrading riverine, lacustrine, and estuarine ecosystems (Bilotta and Brazier, 2008; Clark, 1985; Owens et al., 2005). The challenge, as noted by Brantley et al., (2007), is that despite our society having over 10,000 years of experience working with soils, our conceptual and quantitative models remain inadequate at predicting Critical Zone dynamics under current conditions. Notwithstanding growing pressure for improved environmental management, we still have a limited capacity to predict changes in the Critical Zone in response to anthropogenic activities owing to the multiple spatial and temporal scales at which these complex processes and feedbacks are manifest. As river basin systems are impacted by many of these processes, a deep understanding of soil-sediment continuum dynamics may provide a valuable framework for evaluating the disturbance response of Critical Zone processes. Understanding these processes may also provide land and resource managers with the information necessary to manage both the on-site and off-site effects of accelerated soil erosion.

Journal of Soils and Sediments

Conservation of Mexican wetlands: role of the North American Wetlands Conservation Act

Mexico's wetlands support a tremendous biological diversity and provide significant natural resource benefits to local communities. Because they are also critical stopover and wintering grounds for much of North America's waterfowl and other migratory birds, Mexico has become an important participant in continental efforts to conserve these resources through the North American Wetlands Conservation Act. Funding from the Act has supported partnerships in a number of Mexico's priority wetlands to conduct data analyses and dissemination, mapping, environmental education, wetland restoration, development of sustainable economic alternatives for local people, and reserve planning and management. These partnerships, with the close involvement of Mexico's Federal Government authority, the Instituto Nacional de Ecologia, have advanced conservation in a uniquely Mexican model that differs from that employed in the United States and Canada.

Wildlife Society Bulletin

Evolutionary stability of mutualism: interspecific population regulation as an evolutionarily stable strategy

Interspecific mutualisms are often vulnerable to instability because low benefit : cost ratios can rapidly lead to extinction or to the conversion of mutualism to parasite–host or predator–prey interactions. We hypothesize that the evolutionary stability of mutualism can depend on how benefits and costs to one mutualist vary with the population density of its partner, and that stability can be maintained if a mutualist can influence demographic rates and regulate the population density of its partner. We test this hypothesis in a model of mutualism with key features of senita cactus ( Pachycereus schottii ) – senita moth ( Upiga virescens ) interactions, in which benefits of pollination and costs of larval seed consumption to plant fitness depend on pollinator density. We show that plants can maximize their fitness by allocating resources to the production of excess flowers at the expense of fruit. Fruit abortion resulting from excess flower production reduces pre–adult survival of the pollinating seed–consumer, and maintains its density beneath a threshold that would destabilize the mutualism. Such a strategy of excess flower production and fruit abortion is convergent and evolutionarily stable against invasion by cheater plants that produce few flowers and abort few to no fruit. This novel mechanism of achieving evolutionarily stable mutualism, namely interspecific population regulation, is qualitatively different from other mechanisms invoking partner choice or selective rewards, and may be a general process that helps to preserve mutualistic interactions in nature.

Proceedings of the Royal Society B

Relationship between reported commercial landings and abundance of young striped bass in Chesapeake Bay, Maryland

The ability to predict subsequent landings of striped bass Morone saxatilis from the indices of abundance of juveniles (young of the year) determined annually by the Maryland Department of Natural Resources was evaluated by multiple‐regression techniques. About 57% of the variation in reported landings could be accounted for by the juvenile indices 2, 3, 4, and 5 years prior to the year of the landings for the period 1959–1983. Elimination of the first 4 years of record (1959–1962) increased the R 2 to 0.83. The regressions of reported landings on the indices of ages 2–5 striped bass for the periods 1964–1973 and 1974–1983 indicated that mortality in the fishable stock increased between the two periods. These results support the use of the juvenile indices for monitoring recruitment into the population and as a basis for management decisions.

Maryland

Natural bitumen and extra-heavy oil

Crude oil is found in sedimentary rocks throughout the world, except, thus far, in Antarctica. In many places the oil has been degraded, so that it is represented by viscous black oil that is difficult to recover, transport, and refine. Depending upon the degree of degradation the result is extra-heavy oil or, in the extreme case, natural bitumen. Except in Canada, precise quantitative reserves and oilin-place data on a reservoir basis are seldom available because most countries and companies consider such information to be proprietary. Natural bitumen is the oil contained in clastic and carbonate reservoir rocks, most frequently in small deposits at, or near, the earth’s surface. These rocks are commonly referred to as tar sands or oil sands and have been mined since antiquity for use as paving. Occasionally such deposits are extremely large in areal extent and in contained resources, most notably those in northern Alberta, Canada. In 2003 only the Alberta bitumen deposits were being exploited as a source of crude oil. Similarly, reservoirs containing extra-heavy oil are geographically widespread but only one such deposit is sufficiently large to have a major supply and economic impact. That deposit is the Orinoco Oil Belt in Eastern Venezuela. Nowhere else in the world is such a concentration of extra heavy oil known or likely to exist. Definitions of terms used in this commentary may be found immediately prior to Table 4.1. The resource definitions are those of the World Petroleum Congress-Society of Petroleum Engineers-American Association of Petroleum Geologists, with minor additions. One such addition, e.g. is the term Original Reserves, comprised of Proved Reserves plus Cumulative Production, which tends to place new and mature reservoirs on a more nearly comparable basis than either term alone

Conference Paper

The National Map: from geography to mapping and back again

When the means of production for national base mapping were capital intensive, required large production facilities, and had ill-defined markets, Federal Government mapping agencies were the primary providers of the spatial data needed for economic development, environmental management, and national defense. With desktop geographic information systems now ubiquitous, source data available as a commodity from private industry, and the realization that many complex problems faced by society need far more and different kinds of spatial data for their solutions, national mapping organizations must realign their business strategies to meet growing demand and anticipate the needs of a rapidly changing geographic information environment. The National Map of the United States builds on a sound historic foundation of describing and monitoring the land surface and adds a focused effort to produce improved understanding, modeling, and prediction of land-surface change. These added dimensions bring to bear a broader spectrum of geographic science to address extant and emerging issues. Within the overarching construct of The National Map, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) is making a transition from data collector to guarantor of national data completeness; from producing paper maps to supporting an online, seamless, integrated database; and from simply describing the Nation’s landscape to linking these descriptions with increased scientific understanding. Implementing the full spectrum of geographic science addresses a myriad of public policy issues, including land and natural resource management, recreation, urban growth, human health, and emergency planning, response, and recovery. Neither these issues nor the science and technologies needed to deal with them are static. A robust research agenda is needed to understand these changes and realize The National Map vision. Initial successes have been achieved. These accomplishments demonstrate the utility of The National Map to the Nation and give confidence in evolving its future applications.

Photogrammetric Engineering and Remote Sensing

Using public litigation records to identify priority science needs for managing public lands

Relevant science is essential for effective natural resource decision making, including on public lands managed by the United States Department of the Interior (DOI) Bureau of Land Management (BLM), that cover 1/10th of the United States. Most of the BLM’s management decisions require analyses under the National Environmental Policy Act, and the use of science in these decisions is often challenged. Using coproduction, we assembled an interagency team of scientists and resource managers to develop a method for using public litigation to identify priority science needs for the BLM. We searched publicly available case documents finalized from 2015–2019 in Wyoming, Colorado, Utah, and New Mexico within federal courts and the DOI Office of Hearings and Appeals, and identified 108 case documents that involved challenges to the BLM’s use of science. We retained 48 case documents that contained at least one challenge about the BLM’s use of science for a specific resource. We categorized all challenges in each case document according to the proposed action, affected resource, type of science challenged (data about resources, science relevant to potential impacts, methods for analyzing potential impacts, and mitigation actions), and specific nature of the challenge (e.g., challenging direct effects analysis). We identified priority science needs based on the frequency of challenges, the number of states where similar challenges occurred, whether the BLM lost the challenge, and whether the case was remanded. Top needs related to oil and gas development actions and included science about effects on air quality and climate, water, and socioeconomics; data for air quality and climate; and methods for analyzing potential impacts to cultural resources and air quality and climate. The BLM can use this information to prioritize actions (e.g., funding new research or science syntheses) to strengthen its science foundation for decision-making.

Colorado, New Mexico, Utah, Wyoming

Assessment of NE Greenland: Prototype for development of Circum-ArcticResource Appraisal methodology

Geological features of NE Greenland suggest large petroleum potential, as well as high uncertainty and risk. The area was the prototype for development of methodology used in the US Geological Survey (USGS) Circum-Arctic Resource Appraisal (CARA), and was the first area evaluated. In collaboration with the Geological Survey of Denmark and Greenland (GEUS), eight ‘assessment units’ (AU) were defined, six of which were probabilistically assessed. The most prospective areas are offshore in the Danmarkshavn Basin. This study supersedes a previous USGS assessment, from which it differs in several important respects: oil estimates are reduced and natural gas estimates are increased to reflect revised understanding of offshore geology. Despite the reduced estimates, the CARA indicates that NE Greenland may be an important future petroleum province.

Geological Society Memoir

Wildlife disease in the Colorado Delta as an indicator of ecosystem health

Ecosystem health and management are relatively new paradigms for environmental management (Costanza et al., 1992) and will be continually redefined and reevaluated relative to their purpose and utility in serving human society (Costanza et al., 1992; Sutter, 1993; Grumbine, 1994; Lackey, 1998, 1999). The stimulus for ecosystem management is often associated with sustaining or restoring ecosystem health to provide values sought by humans (Costanza et al., 1992). We accept the concepts of ecosystem health and management as useful precepts. However, we argue that the orientation in serving human values often has resulted in inadequate attention being given to nonhuman species. The need to address ecosystem health for the benefit of all species that share Planet Earth is noted by Merchant (1997). This humanistic viewpoint also has economic benefits that are part of the wealth that we will pass on to future generations (Pulliam, 1995). Despite the viewpoints just noted, disease occurrence in wildlife receives inadequate consideration with regard to perspectives of ecosystem health and as a focus for ecosystem management. Evidence for this view is the limited resources allocated for wildlife disease programs and prevention efforts, and persistent attitudes within the wildlife conservation community that disease is a “natural event,” not influenced by environmental conditions or anthropogenic insults.

California

Proceedings of a Coastal and Marine Spatial Planning Workshop for the Western United States

Recent scientific and ocean policy assessments demonstrate that a fundamental change in our current management system is required to achieve the long-term health of our ocean, coasts, and Great Lakes in order to sustain the services and benefits they provide to society. The present (2011) species- and sector-centric way we manage these ecosystems cannot account properly for cumulative effects, sustaining multiple ecosystem services, and holistically and explicitly evaluating the tradeoffs associated with proposed alternative and multiple human uses. A transition to an ecosystem-based approach to management and conservation of coastal and marine resources is needed. Competing uses and activities such as commerce, recreation, cultural practices, energy development, conservation, and national security are increasing pressure for new and expanded resource usage in coastal marine ecosystems. Current management efforts use a sector-by-sector approach that mostly focuses on a limited range of tools and outcomes [for example, oil and gas leases, fishery management plans, and Marine Protected Areas (MPAs)]. A comprehensive, ecosystem-based, and proactive approach to planning and managing these uses and activities is needed. Further, scientific understanding and information are essential to achieve an integrated decision-making process that includes knowledge of ecosystem services, existing and possible future conditions, and potential consequences of natural and anthropogenic events. Because no single government agency has executive authority for coastal or ocean resources, conflicting objectives around competing uses abound. In recent years, regional- and state-level initiatives in Coastal and Marine Spatial Planning (CMSP) have emerged to coordinate management activities. In some respects, the components and steps of the overall CMSP process are similar to how existing ocean resources are regulated and managed. For example, the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management Regulation and Enforcement (BOEMRE) uses spatial planning exercises in State Renewable Energy Task Force meetings to identify competing and conflicting ocean uses, and to delineate areas suitable for renewable energy development. Similarly terrestrial areas such as in national parks and national wildlife refuges managed by the Department of the Interior (DOI) prepare management plans for preservation and restoration of species and habitats of concern, some of which are protected by law. The analogy to CMSP is clear - multiple users and multiple expectations, resulting in the requirement to establish spatial plans for management of different resources and different ecosystem services. A two-day workshop on December 1-2, 2010, was convened for DOI representatives and several key non-DOI participants with roles in CMSP as a step toward clarifying national perspectives and consequences of the National Ocean Policy for the West (appendix 1). Discussions helped to develop an understanding of CMSP from the federal perspective and to identify regional priorities. An overarching theme was to promote a better understanding of current and future science needs. The workshop format included briefings by key Federal agencies on their understanding of the national focus followed by discussion of regional issues, including the needs for scientific information and coordination. The workshop also explored potential science contributions by Federal agencies and others; utilizing current capabilities, data, and information systems; and provided a foundation for possible future regional workshops focusing in turn on the West Coast Region (California, Oregon, and Washington), Pacific Islands (sometimes referred to as Oceania) and Alaska. Participants were asked to share information in the following areas, recognizing that the purpose would be to learn more about the national perspective (see appendixes 2-4): Explore how the Western U.S. (Alaska, Pacific Islands, and West Coast Region) migh

Open-File Report

Birds of the St. Croix River valley: Minnesota and Wisconsin

The St. Croix River Valley encompasses nearly 11,550 km2 in east-central Minnesota and northwestern Wisconsin. A wide range of habitats are available for birds including upland oak, lowland deciduous, maple-basswood, lowland and upland coniferous forests, natural basin wetlands, and grasslands. Situated in the north-central region of the United States, the valley is a biological 'crossroads' for many species. Because of the mixed affinities of plant communities, the valley includes the northern and southern range limits for a number of species. Also, because the valley lies near the forest-prairie transition zone, many typical western breeding species (e.g. pintail, western meadowlark, yellow-headed blackbird) breed in proximity to typical eastern species such as tufted titmouse, eastern meadowlark, and cardinal. From 1966 to 1980, I conducted extensive surveys of avian distribution and abundance in the St. Croix River Valley. I have supplemented the results of these surveys with published and unpublished observations contributed by many ornithologists. These additional data include compilations from Christmas Bird Counts sponsored by the National Audubon Society and from the Breeding Bird Survey coordinated by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service. Three hundred fourteen species have been recorded in the study area; data are presented on the migration period, nesting season distribution, winter distribution, relative abundance, and habitat use of each species. Recognizing the uniqueness of the area, and its importance not only to wildlife but also to man, the U.S. Congress designated the St. Croix a National Scenic Riverway. This action provided a considerable degree of protection to lands along and directly adjacent to the river. Unfortunately, no similar legal measure exists to protect lands away from the river. With the exception of the northern quarter of the St. Croix River Valley, agricultural interests have made significant inroads into the habitat base. The continuing expansion of the nearby Minneapolis-St. Paul metropolitan region has degraded or destroyed many woodlots, upland fields, and wetlands. In numerous instances, degradation of natural habitats has influenced the abundance and distribution of bird species. Because of these changes, both the Federal government and State Departments of Natural Resources have listed several species in various categories based on their current status. In the St. Croix River Valley, seven species are endangered, eight are threatened, and 29 are watch or priority status in either or both states. Data presented in this report are of value to land managers, land use specialists, and ornithologists, in assessing current and projected habitat alterations on the avifauna of this valley. The St. Croix River bisects a large region of western Wisconsin and east central Minnesota that exhibits a wide range of habitat types. This region supports not only birds, but many mammals, fishes, reptiles and amphibians, and several thousand species of vascular and nonvascular plants. The river itself is relatively clean through most of its course, and its natural flow is interrupted by only two small dams. Because the river lies within a 1-day drive of nearly 10 million people (Waters 1977), use of the area for recreational purposes is extremely heavy. Recreational pursuits include sunbathing, boating, and wild river kayaking in the summer, and ice fishing and cross-country skiing in the winter. The large number of unique and highly fragile habitats that exist there may never be compatible with the uses and abuses of the land that go with expanding human populations. Through the efforts of a number of citizens concerned with the quality of their environment and the foresightedness of several local, State, and Federal legislators, a portion of the upper St. Croix River Valley (hereafter termed 'the Valley') was established as a National Wild and Scenic River. Through establishment of t

North American Fauna

Coastal systems and low-lying areas

Since the IPCC Third Assessment Report (TAR), our understanding of the implications of climate change for coastal systems and low-lying areas (henceforth referred to as ‘coasts’) has increased substantially and six important policy-relevant messages have emerged. Coasts are experiencing the adverse consequences of hazards related to climate and sea level (very high confidence). Coasts are highly vulnerable to extreme events, such as storms, which impose substantial costs on coastal societies [6.2.1, 6.2.2, 6.5.2]. Annually, about 120 million people are exposed to tropical cyclone hazards, which killed 250,000 people from 1980 to 2000 [6.5.2]. Through the 20th century, global rise of sea level contributed to increased coastal inundation, erosion and ecosystem losses, but with considerable local and regional variation due to other factors [6.2.5, 6.4.1]. Late 20th century effects of rising temperature include loss of sea ice, thawing of permafrost and associated coastal retreat, and more frequent coral bleaching and mortality [6.2.5]. Coasts will be exposed to increasing risks, including coastal erosion, over coming decades due to climate change and sea-level rise (very high confidence). Anticipated climate-related changes include: an accelerated rise in sea level of up to 0.6 m or more by 2100; a further rise in sea surface temperatures by up to 3°C; an intensification of tropical and extra-tropical cyclones; larger extreme waves and storm surges; altered precipitation/run-off; and ocean acidification [6.3.2]. These phenomena will vary considerably at regional and local scales, but the impacts are virtually certain to be overwhelmingly negative [6.4, 6.5.3]. Corals are vulnerable to thermal stress and have low adaptive capacity. Increases in sea surface temperature of about 1 to 3°C are projected to result in more frequent coral bleaching events and widespread mortality, unless there is thermal adaptation or acclimatisation by corals [Box 6.1, 6.4]. Coastal wetland ecosystems, such as saltmarshes and mangroves, are especially threatened where they are sediment starved or constrained on their landward margin [6.4.1]. Degradation of coastal ecosystems, especially wetlands and coral reefs, has serious implications for the well-being of societies dependent on the coastal ecosystems for goods and services [6.4.2, 6.5.3]. ncreased flooding and the degradation of freshwater, fisheries and other resources could impact hundreds of millions of people, and socio-economic costs on coasts will escalate as a result of climate change [6.4.2, 6.5.3]. The impact of climate change on coasts is exacerbated by increasing human-induced pressures (very high confidence). Utilisation of the coast increased dramatically during the 20th century and this trend is virtually certain to continue through the 21st century. Under the SRES scenarios, the coastal population could grow from 1.2 billion people (in 1990) to 1.8 to 5.2 billion people by the 2080s, depending on assumptions about migration [6.3.1]. Increasing numbers of people and assets at risk at the coast are subject to additional stresses due to land-use and hydrological changes in catchments, including dams that reduce sediment supply to the coast [6.3.2]. Populated deltas (especially Asian megadeltas), low-lying coastal urban areas and atolls are key societal hotspots of coastal vulnerability, occurring where the stresses on natural systems coincide with low human adaptive capacity and high exposure [6.4.3]. Regionally, South, South- East and East Asia, Africa and small islands are most vulnerable [6.4.2]. Climate change therefore reinforces the desirability of managing coasts in an integrated manner [6.6.1.3]. Adaptation for the coasts of developing countries will be more challenging than for coasts of developed countries, due to constraints on adaptive capacity (high confidence). While physical exposure can significantly influence vulnerability for both human populations and natural systems, a lack of adaptive capacity is often the most important factor that creates a hotspot of human vulnerability. Adaptive capacity is largely dependent upon development status. Developing nations may have the political or societal will to protect or relocate people who live in low-lying coastal zones, but without the necessary financial and other resources/capacities, their vulnerability is much greater than that of a developed nation in an identical coastal setting. Vulnerability will also vary between developing countries, while developed countries are not insulated from the adverse consequences of extreme events [6.4.3, 6.5.2]. Adaptation costs for vulnerable coasts are much less than the costs of inaction (high confidence). Adaptation costs for climate change are much lower than damage costs without adaptation for most developed coasts, even considering only property losses and human deaths [6.6.2, 6.6.3]. As post-event impacts on coastal businesses, people, housing, public and private social institutions, natural resources, and the environment generally go unrecognised in disaster cost accounting, the full benefits of adaptation are even larger [6.5.2, 6.6.2]. Without adaptation, the high-end sea-level rise scenarios, combined with other climate changes (e.g., increased storm intensity), are as likely as not to render some islands and lowlying areas unviable by 2100, so effective adaptation is urgently required [6.6.3]. The unavoidability of sea-level rise, even in the longer-term, frequently conflicts with present-day human development patterns and trends (high confidence). Sea-level rise has substantial inertia and will continue beyond 2100 for many centuries. Irreversible breakdown of the West Antarctica and/or Greenland ice sheets, if triggered by rising temperatures, would make this long-term rise significantly larger, ultimately questioning the viability of many coastal settlements across the globe. The issue is reinforced by the increasing human use of the coastal zone. Settlement patterns also have substantial inertia, and this issue presents a challenge for long-term coastal spatial planning. Stabilisation of climate could reduce the risks of ice sheet breakdown, and reduce but Chapter 6 Coastal systems and low-lying areas 317 not stop sea-level rise due to thermal expansion [Box 6.6]. Hence, it is now more apparent than it was in the TAR that the most appropriate response to sea-level rise for coastal areas is a combination of adaptation to deal with the inevitable rise, and mitigation to limit the long-term rise to a manageable level [6.6.5, 6.7].

Book chapter

Exploring links between systematics and fisheries management

We argue that the sustainable management of fisheries resources depends on an understanding of the taxonomy and systematics of fish. Toward this end, it is necessary for fisheries managers to understand and apply the various species concepts that have been developed by taxonomists and evolutionary biologists and to decide, based on a philosophical position, what is necessary and sufficient for a taxon to be recognized as a distinct species. If species are viewed as ontological individuals and as such exist in nature, then it makes sense for managers to develop strategies to sustain and manipulate given populations to achieve management goals. In this series of papers, the authors explore species concepts with respect to fish and demonstrate the value of understanding species concepts, systematics, and taxonomy in addressing modern fisheries management problems.

Transactions of the American Fisheries Society

Contributions of Arctic PRISM to monitoring western hemispheric shorebirds

Long-term monitoring of populations is of paramount importance to understanding responses oforganisms to global environmental change and to evaluating whether conservation practices are yielding intended results through time (Wiens 2009). The population status of many shorebird species, the focus of this volume, remain poorly known. Long-distance migrant shorebirds have proven particularly difficult to monitor, in part because of their highly migratory nature and ranges that extend into highly inaccessible regions. As migrant shorebirds travel the length of the hemisphere, they congregate and disperse in ways that vary among species, locations, and years, presenting serious challenges to designing and implementing monitoring programs. Rigorous field and quantitative methods that estimate population size and monitor trends are vitally needed to direct and evaluate effective conservation measures. Many management efforts depend on unbiased population size estimates; for example, the shorebird conservation plans for both Canada and the United States seek to restore populations to levels calculated for the 1970s based on the best information available from existing surveys. Further, federal wildlife agencies within the United States and Canada have mandates to understand the state of their nations' resources under various conventions for the protection of migratory birds. Accurate estimates of population size are vital statistics for a variety of conservation activities, such as prioritizing species for conservation action and setting management targets. Areas of essential habitat, such as those designated under the Western Hemisphere Shorebird Reserve Network, the Important Bird Areas program of BirdLife International and the National Audubon Society, or Canada's National Wildlife Areas program, are all evaluated on the basis ofproportions of species' populations which they contain. The size, and trends in size, ofa species' population are considered key information for assessing its vulnerability and subsequent listing under the U.S. Endangered Species Act and the Canadian Species at Risk Act. To meet the need for information on population size and trends, shorebird biologists from Canada and the United States proposed a shared blueprint for shorebird monitoring across the Western Hemisphere in the late 1990s; this effort was undertaken in concert with the development of the Canadian and U.S. Shorebird Conservation Plans (Donaldson et al. 2000, Brown et aL 2001). Soon thereafter, partners in the monitoring effort adopted the name "Program for Regional and International Shorebird Monitoring" (PRISM). Among the primary objectives of PRISM were to estimate the population sizes and trends of breeding North American shorebirds and describe their distributions (Bart et al. 2002). PRISM members evaluated ongoing and potential monitoring approaches to address 74 taxa (including subspecies) and proposed a combination of arctic andboreal breeding surveys, temperate breeding and non-breeding surveys, and neotropical surveys.

Book chapter

Water-the Nation's Fundamental Climate Issue A White Paper on the U.S. Geological Survey Role and Capabilities

Of all the potential threats posed by climatic variability and change, those associated with water resources are arguably the most consequential for both society and the environment (Waggoner, 1990). Climatic effects on agriculture, aquatic ecosystems, energy, and industry are strongly influenced by climatic effects on water. Thus, understanding changes in the distribution, quantity and quality of, and demand for water in response to climate variability and change is essential to planning for and adapting to future climatic conditions. A central role of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) with respect to climate is to document environmental changes currently underway and to develop improved capabilities to predict future changes. Indeed, a centerpiece of the USGS role is a new Climate Effects Network of monitoring sites. Measuring the climatic effects on water is an essential component of such a network (along with corresponding effects on terrestrial ecosystems). The USGS needs to be unambiguous in communicating with its customers and stakeholders, and with officials at the Department of the Interior, that although modeling future impacts of climate change is important, there is no more critical role for the USGS in climate change science than that of measuring and describing the changes that are currently underway. One of the best statements of that mission comes from a short paper by Ralph Keeling (2008) that describes the inspiration and the challenges faced by David Keeling in operating the all-important Mauna Loa Observatory over a period of more than four decades. Ralph Keeling stated: 'The only way to figure out what is happening to our planet is to measure it, and this means tracking changes decade after decade and poring over the records.' There are three key ideas that are important to the USGS in the above-mentioned sentence. First, to understand what is happening requires measurement. While models are a tool for learning and testing our understanding, they are not a substitute for observations. The second key idea is that measurement needs to be done over a period of many decades. When viewing hydrologic records over time scales of a few years to a few decades, trends commonly appear. However, when viewed in the context of many decades to centuries, these short-term trends are recognized as being part of much longer term oscillations. Thus, while we might want to initiate monitoring of important aspects of our natural resources, the data that will prove to be most useful in the next few years are those records that already have long-term continuity. USGS streamflow and groundwater level data are excellent examples of such long-term records. These measured data span many decades, follow standard protocols for collection and quality assurance, and are stored in a database that provides access to the full period of record. The third point from the Keeling quote relates to the notion of ?poring over the records.? Important trends will not generally jump off the computer screen at us. Thoughtful analyses are required to get past a number of important but confounding influences in the record, such as the role of seasonal variation, changes in water management, or influences of quasi-periodic phenomena, such as El Ni?o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) or the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). No organization is better situated to pore over the records than the USGS because USGS scientists know the data, quality-assure the data, understand the factors that influence the data, and have the ancillary information on the watersheds within which the data are collected. To fulfill the USGS role in understanding climatic variability and change, we need to continually improve and strengthen two of our key capabilities: (1) preserving continuity of long-term water data collection and (2) analyzing and interpreting water data to determine how the Nation's water resources are changing. Understanding change in water resources

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