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USGS2021

Earthquakes indicated magma viscosity during Kīlauea’s 2018 eruption

Magma viscosity strongly controls the style (for example, explosive versus effusive) of a volcanic eruption and thus its hazard potential, but can only be measured during or after an eruption. The identification of precursors indicative of magma viscosity would enable forecasting of the eruption style and the scale of associated hazards 1 . The unanticipated May 2018 rift intrusion and eruption of Kīlauea Volcano, Hawai‘i 2 displayed exceptional chemical and thermal variability in erupted lavas, leading to unpredictable effusion rates and explosivity. Here, using an integrated analysis of seismicity and magma rheology, we show that the orientation of fault-plane solutions (which indicate a fault’s orientation and sense of movement) for earthquakes preceding and accompanying the 2018 eruption indicate a 90-degree local stress-field rotation from background, a phenomenon previously observed only at high-viscosity eruptions 3 , and never before at Kīlauea 4,5,6,7,8 . Experimentally obtained viscosities for 2018 products and earlier lavas from the Pu‘u ‘Ō‘ō vents tightly constrain the viscosity threshold required for local stress-field reorientation. We argue that rotated fault-plane solutions in earthquake swarms at Kīlauea and other volcanoes worldwide provide an early indication that unrest involves magma of heightened viscosity, and thus real-time monitoring of the orientations of fault-plane solutions could provide critical information about the style of an impending eruption. Furthermore, our results provide insight into the fundamental nature of coupled failure and flow in complex multiphase systems.

Hawaii↗

USGS1989

Earthquake recurrence and risk assessment in circum-Pacific seismic gaps

THE development of the concept of seismic gaps, regions of low earthquake activity where large events are expected, has been one of the notable achievements of seismology and plate tectonics. Its application to long-term earthquake hazard assessment continues to be an active field of seismological research. Here I have surveyed well documented case histories of repeated rupture of the same segment of circum-Pacific plate boundary and characterized their general features. I find that variability in fault slip and spatial extent of great earthquakes rupturing the same plate boundary segment is typical rather than exceptional but sequences of major events fill identified seismic gaps with remarkable order. Earthquakes are concentrated late in the seismic cycle and occur with increasing size and magnitude. Furthermore, earthquake rupture starts near zones of concentrated moment release, suggesting that high-slip regions control the timing of recurrent events. The absence of major earthquakes early in the seismic cycle indicates a more complex behaviour for lower-slip regions, which may explain the observed cycle-to-cycle diversity of gap-filling sequences.

Nature↗

USGS2025

Near-real-time geochemical monitoring of Hawaiian volcanoes using energy dispersive X-ray fluorescence (EDXRF)

Syn-eruption geochemical monitoring during volcanic activity is an important component of integrated volcanic monitoring. Volcanoes on the Island of Hawai‘i are primarily monitored by the U.S. Geological Survey’s Hawaiian Volcano Observatory using instrumental networks, field surveys, satellite observations, and petrologic monitoring. In collaboration with the University of Hawaiʻi at Hilo, an important component of this monitoring is near-real-time (generally within 24 h of sample collection) bulk-rock geochemistry using benchtop energy-dispersive X-ray fluorescence (EDXRF). Bulk-rock geochemistry, coupled with additional petrologic and geophysical analyses, are used to track eruption dynamics to help facilitate identification and understanding of changes that signal the onset of potentially hazardous activity. In this paper, we present EDXRF methodology for bulk-rock analysis used to evaluate the 2018 Kīlauea and 2022 Mauna Loa eruptions and compare this technique to other geochemical methods. Syn-eruption geochemical monitoring using EDXRF provides reliable quantitative data that is important for understanding eruption dynamics. Critical to this process are calibrating the instrument for analysis over the same range of compositions expected during volcanic activity, compiling a relevant database from past eruptions on the same instrument for comparison, and having the physical infrastructure and trained personnel to complete the analyses in a timely fashion. In addition to the scientific goals of petrologic monitoring, near-real-time geochemical analysis in Hawaii provides important information about the nature of on-going eruptions and informs decision-makers and the public about associated evolving hazards.

Hawaii↗

USGS1986

Potential impacts of agricultural chemicals on waterfowl and other wildlife inhabiting prairie wetlands: An evaluation of research needs and approaches

The potential for agricultural chemicals to enter prairie-pothole wetlands and impact wildlife dependent on these wetlands for survival and reproduction appears to be great. However, the actual risk to wetland wildlife from the inputs of these chemicals cannot be adequately assessed at this time, because of insufficient data. Available data on the use of pesticides in the prairie-pothole region and the toxicity of these pesticides suggest that insecticides pose the greatest hazard to wetland wildlife, particularly birds. The majority of the most widely used insecticides within the region are very toxic to aquatic invertebrates and birds. Of particular concern are the impacts of agricultural chemicals on the quality of the remaining wetlands in the region and whether or not these impacts have contributed to observed declines in waterfowl populations. Although existing data suggest that adult and juvenile waterfowl may not be more sensitive to these chemicals than are other wetland wildlife, their food habits and feeding behaviors may make them more vulnerable to direct toxic effects or chemical-induced changes in the abundance of aquatic invertebrates. Laboratory and field studies in the United States and Canada are critically needed to assess these potential impacts.

Transactions of the North American Wildlife and Na↗

USGS2025

Seismic response of rock towers at the Trona Pinnacles (U.S.A.) to the 2019 Ridgecrest earthquake sequence: Theory, observations, and models

We analyze the seismic response of a class of fragile geologic features (FGFs), referred to as rock towers (RTs) at the Trona Pinnacles, a group of RTs in southern California that suffered strong shaking during the 2019 Ridgecrest earthquake sequence. FGFs, including RTs, may provide maximum constraints on past earthquake shaking intensity, and thereby support probabilistic seismic hazard assessments (PSHAs). In a rare case study, we explore the hypothesis that RT structural integrity is time dependent, as damage accumulates progressively. We develop finite‐element method (FEM) models of the RTs using photogrammetric shape models. We validate the models by comparing numerical simulations of their response to broadband ground shaking with low‐intensity seismic recordings obtained at the Pinnacles. Results of our simulations are in good agreement with the seismic recordings of actual earthquake aftershocks. We next use the results of the FEM models to analyze the response and evolution of RTs. Our analyses elucidate the influence of geometry over their seismic response, providing a rationale that may explain the rarity of slender RTs at Trona: high‐aspect‐ratio structures that respond in bending develop detrimental tensile stresses that crack the rock, whereas low‐aspect‐ratio ones’ response also includes shearing, which does not compromise material integrity as much as tension. Field measurements with a rebound hammer support this finding, suggesting that the material around the base of slender rocks has been weakened relative to other parts of the RT. We also study how to define simplified mechanical models (“archetypes”) to predict the natural frequencies of RTs. Results from our work illuminate the fundamental mechanisms of seismic response and progressive failure of RTs, and open new avenues of research to potentially incorporate these geologic features as long‐return period constraints on PSHA, in ways analogous to those of the widely used precariously balanced rocks.

California↗

USGS2026

Effects of storm surge exceedance value on overwash and inundation forecasts

Hurricane induced sediment transport and flooding can cause catastrophic damage to coastal communities. Forecasts test our understanding of the drivers of sediment transport and flooding, as well as quantify potential storm effects on coastlines. Real-time availability of forecasts allows emergency response and management decisions to be made with additional information. This study analyzed the skill of probabilistic forecasts of overwash and inundation along the Louisiana coastline from back-to-back Hurricanes Laura and Delta in 2020. To test skill, forecasts were compared with observations of mean water level relative to beach elevations and evidence of overwash and inundation identified in post-storm aerial imagery. We found that probabilistic forecasts accurately identified areas where overwash and inundation were likely to occur. In some cases, forecasts also produced a conservative estimation of overwash and inundation. For the first time, we explored the role of exceedance value in probabilistic forecasts of overwash and inundation and found that choice of exceedance value can influence forecasts. Additionally, we found that waves contributed up to 27% of the mean water level and up to 63% of the extreme water level during Hurricanes Laura and Delta.

Louisiana, Texas↗

USGS1995

Dietary exposure of mink to carp from Saginaw Bay, Michigan. 1. Effects on reproduction and survival, and the potential risks to wild mink populations

Carp ( Cyprinus carpio ) collected from Saginaw Bay, Michigan, containing 8.4 mg total polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs)/kg and 194 ng of 2,3,7,8-tetrachloro-dibenzo- p -dioxin equivalents (TEQs)/kg, were substituted for marine fish at levels of 0, 10, 20, or 40% in the diets of adult ranch mink ( Mustela vison ). The diets, containing 0.015, 0.72, 1.53, and 2.56 mg PCBs/kg diet, or 1.03, 19.41, 40.02, and 80.76 ng TEQs/kg diet, respectively, were fed to mink prior to and throughout the reproductive period to evaluate the effects of a naturally-contaminated prey species on their survival and reproductive performance. The total quantities of PCBs ingested by the mink fed 0, 10, 20, or 40% carp over the 85-day treatment period were 0.34, 13.2, 25.3, and 32.3 mg PCBs/mink, respectively. The corresponding quantities of TEQs ingested by the mink over the same treatment period were 23, 356, 661, and 1,019 ng TEQs/mink, respectively. Consumption of feed by mink was inversely proportional to the PCB and TEQ content of the diet. The diets containing Saginaw Bay carp caused impaired reproduction and/or reduced survival of the kits. Compared to controls, body weights of kits at birth were significantly reduced in the 20 and 40% carp groups, and kit body weights and survival in the 10 and 20% carp groups were significantly reduced at three and six weeks of age. The females fed 40% carp whelped the fewest number of kits, all of which were stillborn or died within 24 hours. Lowest observable adverse effect levels (LOAEL) of 0.134 mg PCBs/kg body weight/day or 3.6 ng TEQs/kg body weight/day for adult female mink were determined. The potential effects of exposure of wild mink to contaminated Great Lakes fish were assessed by calculating “maximum allowable daily intakes” and “hazard indices” based on total concentrations of PCB residues in several species of Great Lakes fish and mink toxicity data derived from the study.

Archives of Environmental Contamination and Toxico↗

USGS2008

7th U.S. / Japan Natural Resources (UJNR) Panel on Earthquake Research: Abstract volume and technical program

The U.S. / Japan Natural Resources (UJNR) Panel on Earthquake Research promotes advanced study toward a more fundamental understanding of the earthquake process and hazard estimation. The Panel promotes basic and applied research to improve our understanding of the causes and effects of earthquakes and to facilitate the transmission of research results to those who implement hazard reduction measures on both sides of the Pacific and around the world. Meetings are held every other year, and alternate between countries with short presentation on current research and local field trips being the highlights. The 5th Joint Panel meeting was held at Asilomar, California in October, 2004. The technical sessions featured reports on the September 28, 2004 Parkfield, California earthquake, progress on earthquake early warning and rapid post-event assessment technology, probabilistic earthquake forecasting and the newly discovered phenomenon of nonvolcanic tremor. The Panel visited the epicentral region of the M 6.0 Parkfield earthquake and viewed the surface ruptures along the San Andreas Fault. They also visited the San Andreas Fault Observatory at Depth (SAFOD), which had just completed the first phase of drilling into the fault. The 6th Joint Panel meeting was held in Tokushima, Japan in November, 2006. The meeting included very productive exchanges of information on approaches to systematic observation of earthquake processes. Sixty eight technical papers were presented during the meeting on a wide range of subjects, including interplate earthquakes in subduction zones, slow slip and nonvolcanic tremor, crustal deformation, recent earthquake activity and hazard mapping. Through our discussion, we reaffirmed the benefits of working together to achieve our common goal of reducing earthquake hazard, continued cooperation on issues involving densification of observation networks and the open exchange of data among scientific communities. We also reaffirmed the importance of making information public in a timely manner. The Panel visited sites along the east coast of Shikoku that were inundated by the tsunami caused by the 1946 Nankai earthquake where they heard from survivors of the disaster and saw new tsunami shelters and barriers. They also visited the Median Tectonic Line, a major onshore strike-slip fault on Shikoku. The 7th Joint Panel meeting was held in Seattle, Wash., U.S.A. from October 27-30, 2008.

Open-File Report↗

USGS2018

ShakeMap-based prediction of earthquake-induced mass movements in Switzerland calibrated on historical observations

In Switzerland, nearly all historical Mw ~ 6 earthquakes have induced damaging landslides, rockslides and snow avalanches that, in some cases, also resulted in damage to infrastructure and loss of lives. We describe the customisation to Swiss conditions of a globally calibrated statistical approach originally developed to rapidly assess earthquake-induced landslide likelihoods worldwide. The probability of occurrence of such earthquake-induced effects is modelled through a set of geospatial susceptibility proxies and peak ground acceleration. The predictive model is tuned to capture the observations from past events and optimised for near-real-time estimates based on USGS-style ShakeMaps routinely produced by the Swiss Seismological Service. Our emphasis is on the use of high-resolution geospatial datasets along with additional local information on ground failure susceptibility. Even if calibrated on historic events with moderate magnitudes, the methodology presented in this paper yields sensible results also for low-magnitude recent events. The model is integrated in the Swiss ShakeMap framework. This study has a high practical relevance to many Swiss ShakeMap stakeholders, especially those managing lifeline systems, and to other global users interested in conducting a similar customisation for their region of interest.

Natural Hazards↗

USGS2026

Developing a low-cost drone-based method for deploying and retrieving autonomous recording units in inaccessible areas

Autonomous Recording Units (ARUs) are increasingly used in research to support passive acoustic monitoring, but deployment in remote or inaccessible locations remains logistically challenging. Traditional manual placement is labor-intensive, time-consuming, potentially hazardous, and often limited to habitat edges, creating sampling biases and restricting spatial coverage. To address placement limitations in wetland systems, we developed and field-tested a low-cost, lightweight floating platform paired with a drone-based deployment and retrieval system. The drone-deployable ARU platform, constructed from inexpensive, off-the-shelf materials (~US $21 per unit), weighed ~560 g and was mounted with an ARU (AudioMoth) at ~1.2 m above water. The platform was designed for stability, portability, and compliance with Federal Aviation Administration Part 107 regulations. Field trials were conducted across 50 operations in various types of historical rice-field impoundments along the South Carolina coast, which provide critical habitat for secretive marsh birds such as rails (e.g ., Rallus, Laterallus , and Porzana ) and bitterns (e.g ., Botaurus and Ixobrychus ). All 50 deployments and retrievals were successful, demonstrating the robustness of the method under diverse hydrologic and vegetative conditions. Deployment times were significantly shorter than retrieval times (median 6 vs. 9 min), with retrieval requiring greater precision for hook engagement. Operation times scaled predictably with distance: deployment increased by 0.93 min/100 m (R 2 = 0.94) and retrieval by 1.17 min/100 m (R 2 = 0.95). No platform damage or displacement was observed, as emergent vegetation was likely providing natural anchoring. Our approach offers an affordable and effective solution for expanding ARU coverage in large, inaccessible wetlands, reducing sampling bias and enhancing biodiversity monitoring. With continued advances in drone payload capacity, battery endurance, and beyond-visual-line-of-sight flight regulations, our workflow could be adapted for deploying multi-sensor platforms (e.g., ARUs, eDNA samplers, water and air quality sensors, plant sample collectors, insect traps, and trail cameras) to support integrated biodiversity monitoring in challenging landscapes worldwide.

South Carollina↗

USGS1999

Isotopic identification of the source of methane in subsurface sediments of an area surrounded by waste disposal facilities

The major source of methane (CH4) in subsurface sediments on the property of a former hazardous waste treatment facility was determined using isotopic analyses measured on CH4 and associated groundwater. The site, located on an earthen pier built into a shallow wetland lake, has had a history of waste disposal practices and is surrounded by landfills and other waste management facilities. Concentrations of CH4 up to 70% were found in the headspace gases of several piezometers screened at 3 different depths (ranging from 8 to 17 m) in lacustrine and glacial till deposits. Possible sources of the CH4 included a nearby landfill, organic wastes from previous impoundments and microbial gas derived from natural organic matter in the sediments. Isotopic analyses included ??13C, ??D, 14C, and 3H on select CH4 samples and ??D and ??18O on groundwater samples. Methane from the deepest glacial till and intermediate lacustrine deposits had ??13C values from -79 to -82???, typical of natural 'drift gas' generated by microbial CO2-reduction. The CH4 from the shallow lacustrine deposits had ??13C values from -63 to -76???, interpreted as a mixture between CH4 generated by microbial fermentation and the CO2-reduction processes within the subsurface sediments. The ??D values of all the CH4 samples were quite negative ranging from -272 to -299???. Groundwater sampled from the deeper zones also showed quite negative ??D values that explained the light ??D observed for the CH4. Radiocarbon analyses of the CH4 showed decreasing 14C activity with depth, from a high of 58 pMC in the shallow sediments to 2 pMC in the deeper glacial till. The isotopic data indicated the majority of CH4 detected in the fill deposits of this site was microbial CH4 generated from naturally buried organic matter within the subsurface sediments. However, the isotopic data of CH4 from the shallow piezometers was more variable and the possibility of some mixing with oxidized landfill CH4 could not be completely ruled out.

Applied Geochemistry↗

USGS2018

Interseismic ground deformation and fault slip rates in the greater San Francisco Bay Area from two decades of space geodetic data

The detailed spatial variations of strain accumulation and creep on major faults in the northern San Francisco Bay Area (North Bay), which are important for seismic potential and evaluation of natural hazards, remain poorly understood. Here we combine interferometric synthetic aperture radar data from the ERS‐1/2 and Envisat satellites between 1992 and 2010 with continuous and campaign GPS data to obtain a high spatial and temporal coverage of ground deformation of the North Bay. The SAR data from both ascending and descending orbits are combined to separate horizontal and vertical components of the deformation. We jointly invert the horizontal component of the mean velocities derived from these data to infer the deep strike‐slip rates on major locked faults. We use the estimated deep rates to simulate the long‐wavelength deformation due to interseismic elastic strain accumulation along these locked faults. After removing the long‐wavelength signal from the InSAR horizontal mean velocity field, we estimate fault‐parallel surface creep rates of up to 2 mm/year along the central section of the Rodgers Creek fault and surface creep rates ranging between 2 and 4 mm/year along the Concord fault. No surface creep is geodetically resolved along the West Napa and Green Valley fault zones. We identified characteristically repeating earthquakes on the Rodgers Creek fault, the West Napa fault, the Green Valley fault, and the Concord fault. Nontectonic deformation in the Geysers geothermal field and in Late Cenozoic basins (Rohnert Park and Sonoma basins) are also observed, likely due to hydrological and sediment‐compaction processes, respectively.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth↗

USGS2010

Geomorphology and depositional subenvironments of Gulf Islands National Seashore, Perdido Key and Santa Rosa Island, Florida

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) is studying coastal hazards and coastal change to improve our understanding of coastal ecosystems and to develop better capabilities of predicting future coastal change. One approach to understanding the dynamics of coastal systems is to monitor changes in barrier-island subenvironments through time. This involves examining morphologic and topographic change at temporal scales ranging from millennia to years and spatial scales ranging from tens of kilometers to meters. Of particular interest are the processes that produce those changes and the determination of whether or not those processes are likely to persist into the future. In these analyses of hazards and change, both natural and anthropogenic influences are considered. Quantifying past magnitudes and rates of coastal change and knowing the principal factors that govern those changes are critical to predicting what changes are likely to occur under different scenarios, such as short-term impacts of extreme storms or long-term impacts of sea-level rise. Gulf Islands National Seashore was selected for detailed mapping of barrier-island morphology and topography because the islands offer a diversity of depositional subenvironments and because island areas and positions have changed substantially in historical time. The geomorphologic and subenvironmental maps emphasize the processes that formed the surficial features and also serve as a basis for documenting which subenvironments are relatively stable, such as the vegetated barrier core, and those which are highly dynamic, such as the beach and inactive overwash zones. The primary mapping procedures were supervised functions within a Geographic Information System (GIS) that were applied to delineate and classify depositional subenvironments and features, collectively referred to as map units. The delineated boundaries of the map units were exported to create one shapefile, and are differentiated by the field "Type" in the associated attribute table. Map units were delineated and classified based on differences in tonal patterns of features in contrast to adjacent features observed on orthophotography. Land elevations from recent lidar surveys served as supplementary data to assist in delineating the map unit boundaries.

Florida↗

USGS2012

Rapid movement of frozen debris-lobes: implications for permafrost degradation and slope instability in the south-central Brooks Range, Alaska

We present the results of a reconnaissance investigation of unusual debris mass-movement features on permafrost slopes that pose a potential infrastructure hazard in the south-central Brooks Range, Alaska. For the purpose of this paper, we describe these features as frozen debris-lobes. We focus on the characterisation of frozen debris-lobes as indicators of various movement processes using ground-based surveys, remote sensing, field and laboratory measurements, and time-lapse observations of frozen debris-lobe systems along the Dalton Highway. Currently, some frozen debris-lobes exceed 100 m in width, 20 m in height and 1000 m in length. Our results indicate that frozen debris-lobes have responded to climate change by becoming increasingly active during the last decades, resulting in rapid downslope movement. Movement indicators observed in the field include toppling trees, slumps and scarps, detachment slides, striation marks on frozen sediment slabs, recently buried trees and other vegetation, mudflows, and large cracks in the lobe surface. The type and diversity of observed indicators suggest that the lobes likely consist of a frozen debris core, are subject to creep, and seasonally unfrozen surface sediment is transported in warm seasons by creep, slumping, viscous flow, blockfall and leaching of fines, and in cold seasons by creep and sliding of frozen sediment slabs. Ground-based measurements on one frozen debris-lobe over three years (2008–2010) revealed average movement rates of approximately 1 cm day −1 , which is substantially larger than rates measured in historic aerial photography from the 1950s to 1980s. We discuss how climate change may further influence frozen debris-lobe dynamics, potentially accelerating their movement. We highlight the potential direct hazard that one of the studied frozen debris-lobes may pose in the coming years and decades to the nearby Trans Alaska Pipeline System and the Dalton Highway, the main artery for transportation between Interior Alaska and the North Slope.

Alaska↗

USGS2020

On the use of statistical analysis to understand submarine landslide processes and assess their hazard

Because of their inaccessibility, submarine landslides are typically studied individually and at great effort and expense to provide knowledge of the specific site conditions where these landslides occur. Statistical analysis of submarine landslide scars can offer generalized perspectives on the processes that initiate submarine landslides and can help toward hazard assessment in areas that have not been studied in detail. The following review discusses more than a decade of development of statistical approaches to studying submarine landslides. Landslides were previously viewed together with other natural hazards, such as earthquakes and fires, as a phenomenon whose size distribution obeys an inverse power law. Inverse power law distributions are the result of self-organized avalanche processes, in which the final hazard size cannot be predicted at the onset of the disturbance. We find that volume and area distributions of submarine landslides along the U.S. Atlantic continental slope and along nine other margins worldwide do not follow an inverse power law. Rigorous statistical tests of several different probability distribution models indicate that the lognormal model is most appropriate for these siliciclastic environments. Lognormal distributions can be simulated by assuming that the area of slope failure depends on earthquake magnitude, in other words, failure occurs simultaneously over the area affected by horizontal ground shaking and does not cascade from nucleating sources. Therefore, the maximum landslide size can be predicted from the earthquake magnitude and the distance from the rupturing fault. Moreover, earthquakes <~M4.5 cannot generate significant submarine landslides. We further demonstrate that empirical, offshore landslide hazard curves can be developed from these lognormal landslide size distributions, if the duration of mapped landslide activity is known. In addition to hazard estimation, scaling relationships can yield insights on the physical processes associated with landslide failure. For example, the log-log relationship between volume and area of landslide scars in siliciclastic margins is observed to be almost linear implying that most landslides are translational. Carbonate margins, in contrast, show a power-law distribution of scar volumes and their volume to area relationship is ~1.3. These results suggest that landslides in carbonate margins are governed by the random distributions of existing fissures, and they act like rock falls on land. Although earthquakes are the principal trigger of submarine landslides, the effects of earthquake frequency on slope stability can be counterintuitive. The average size of landslide scars decreases non-linearly with increasing frequency of earthquakes and increases with increasing sedimentation rate. The effect is interpreted as evidence for densification and shear strength increase of margin sediment, induced by repeated seismic shaking.

Book chapter↗

USGS1986

Morphology and age of fault scarps in the Rio Grande Rift, south-central Colorado

Fault scarps in the Rio Grande rift of Colorado provide most of the evidence of paleoseismicity in the state, and are thus a major focus of assessments of earthquake hazards. Critical components of such assessments are the ages of past faulting events; age control is scarce and generally coarse for the Rio Grande rift in Colorado. Ages estimated from fault-scarp morphology are thus valuable, partly because they are directly related to the fault eVents, and partly for want of alternative methods. The processes responsible for scarp degradation are poorly understood and the many variables that affect the rates and relative importance of those processes limits the precision and accuracy of age estimates derived from scarp morphology. Both analytical and empirical methods are available for relating scarp degradation processes to scarp morphology and age. Diffusion-equation models that have been derived for scarp degradation are useful for their predictive value and for the insight they provide about the degradation processes. However, because of the limitations mentioned above and because of the multiple-event nature of the scarps in the Rio Grande rift, the simpler empirical approach involving the relation between scarp angle and the logarithm of scarp height is used here. The scarp-morphology data from the Rio Grande rift suggest that the youngest movements on all of the scarps examined occurred less than 15,000 years ago, with the exception of two scarps that are formed on lithologically dissimilar deposits. This age estimate is consistent with the observation that all of the scarps occur at least in part on deposits of Pinedale age. The scarp-morphology data suggest that some of the scarps are closer to 5,000 years than to 15,000 years in age; several of these scarps occur on deposits of early Holocene age and are associated with early Holocene radiocarbon dates. One scarp occurs on deposits with radiocarbon dates of only a few thousand years, although the morphology of this scarp is unusual for its age. Three scarps have morphologies that suggest that they may represent fault events younger than 5,000 years old. Although no corroboration is available, these scarps may represent some of the youngest fault movements in Colorado.

Colorado↗

USGS2022

Volcano and earthquake monitoring plan for the Yellowstone Caldera system, 2022–2032

Executive Summary The Yellowstone Volcano Observatory (YVO) is a consortium of nine Federal, State, and academic agencies that: (1) provides timely monitoring and hazards assessment of volcanic, hydrothermal, and earthquake activity in and around Yellowstone National Park, and (2) conducts research to develop new approaches to volcano monitoring and better understand volcanic activity in the Yellowstone region and elsewhere. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) arm of YVO is also responsible for monitoring and reporting on volcanic activity in the Intermountain West of the United States. The previous YVO monitoring plan for the Yellowstone region spanned 2006–2015 and focused on strengthening the region-wide coverage, or backbone, of monitoring systems (Yellowstone Volcano Observatory, 2006). The goals of that plan have largely been achieved thanks to significant investments in instrumentation and infrastructure, especially by the National Science Foundation EarthScope Plate Boundary Observatory (now known as the Network Of The Americas, or NOTA) and the American Reinvestment and Recovery Act. This revision of the monitoring plan, covering 2022–2032, builds upon these improvements to monitoring systems in the Yellowstone region while also accounting for new insights into the dynamics of the area’s seismic, volcanic, and hydrothermal activity. These additional improvements are designed to fill gaps in the monitoring network and to better understand and track hazards associated with hydrothermal processes. These improvements include: Conversion of remaining analog seismic stations to digital, Addition of Global Positioning System (GPS) stations in the vicinity of Norris Geyser Basin and other areas where changes in deformation rate and style have been observed, Implementation of continuous gas monitoring in several areas of Yellowstone National Park, and Improvements to lake, meteorological, and hydrological monitoring to better track hydrothermal activity, including that occurring on lake bottoms, and to aid in understanding of whether such activity might be influenced by external forces, like environmental conditions. The 2022–2032 monitoring plan for the Yellowstone volcanic system also proposes to improve monitoring of hydrothermal areas to better understand these dynamic systems and their associated hazards. To date, only a single seismometer has been placed within one of Yellowstone National Park’s geyser basins because seismic noise associated with boiling water can hinder interpretation of overall seismic and magmatic activity, but this concern has been mitigated by improvements to backbone monitoring. Deployment of geophysical, geochemical, hydrological, and geological monitoring instruments in geyser basins will be accompanied by campaigns to measure gas and water chemistry and flux, as well as aerial and satellite surveys of gas and thermal emissions. Close collaboration between YVO member institutions and other research agencies is needed to achieve these monitoring goals and to use the derived data to advance understanding of how Yellowstone Caldera and similar volcanic systems work. At the same time, attention must be paid to minimize the impact of monitoring efforts and infrastructure on the environment. YVO thus commits to serving as stewards of the natural, cultural, and historical resources in and around Yellowstone National Park while maximizing scientific gain for the betterment of society.

Wyoming↗

USGS2022

A geomorphic-process-based cellular automata model of colluvial wedge morphology and stratigraphy

The development of colluvial wedges at the base of fault scarps following normal-faulting earthquakes serves as a sedimentary record of paleoearthquakes and is thus crucial in assessing seismic hazard. Although there is a large body of observations of colluvial wedge development, connecting this knowledge to the physics of sediment transport can open new frontiers in our understanding. To explore theoretical colluvial wedge evolution, we develop a cellular automata model driven by the production and disturbance (e.g., bioturbative reworking) of mobile regolith and fault-scarp collapse. We consider both 90 and 60 ∘ dipping faults and allow the colluvial wedges to develop over 2000 model years. By tracking sediment transport time, velocity, and provenance, we classify cells into analogs for the debris and wash sedimentary facies commonly described in paleoseismic studies. High values of mobile regolith production and disturbance rates produce relatively larger and more wash-facies-dominated wedges, whereas lower values produced relatively smaller, debris-facies-dominated wedges. Higher lateral collapse rates lead to more debris facies relative to wash facies. Many of the modeled colluvial wedges fully developed within 2000 model years after the earthquake, with many being much faster when process rates are high. Finally, for scenarios with the same amount of vertical displacement, differently sized colluvial wedges developed depending on the rates of geomorphic processes and fault dip. A change in these variables, say by environmental change such as precipitation rates, could theoretically result in different colluvial wedge facies assemblages for the same characteristic earthquake rupture scenario. Finally, the stochastic nature of collapse events, when coupled with high disturbance, illustrates that multiple phases of colluvial deposition are theoretically possible for a single earthquake event.

Earth Surface Dynamics↗