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A conceptual framework for estimation of initial emergency food and water resource requirements in disasters

Many households lack the necessary food and water supplies to sustain themselves for more than three days during a disaster. Community vulnerability assessments can be used to identify households with more pressing needs for emergency food and water resources. It is critical that these assessments include the interaction between physical impacts to lifeline infrastructure and the social vulnerabilities of food and water insecurity to prioritize, allocate, and distribute emergency resources. In this paper, we review and synthesize relevant literature to propose a new multidisciplinary conceptual framework of community vulnerability assessment for estimating initial emergency food and water resource requirements in a developed country. Using the framework as a guide, we illustrate its practical application through a simplified, deterministic model of initial resource requirements in disaster response, and offer a quantitative, comprehensive description of its application within the geophysical hazard context of the “ShakeOut” scenario—a major M w 7.8 earthquake on California's San Andreas fault , occurring within the Los Angeles Basin, CA (USA) region. Model results estimate that 999,027 households (2,947,130 residents) will require initial emergency food and water resource requirements. Estimates include about 6 million meals and 9 million liters of water, concentrated in Lancaster-Palmdale, El Monte-Baldwin Park, East Los Angeles-Downey in Los Angeles County, the Coachella Valley (Riverside County), and in populated areas of San Bernardino County. A sensitivity analysis of social vulnerability interactions with utility service outages investigates the influence of food insecurity on the amplification of resource needs. This study establishes fundamental knowledge at the nexus of natural hazards, critical infrastructure disruptions, and social vulnerability by providing initial estimates of emergency resource demand while advancing the understanding of social inequity in emergency resource access.

International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction↗

Degassing Lakes Nyos and Monoun: Defusing certain disaster

Since the catastrophic releases of CO 2 in the 1980s, Lakes Nyos and Monoun in Cameroon experienced CO 2 recharge at alarming rates of up to 80 mol/m 2 per yr. Total gas pressures reached 8.3 and 15.6 bar in Monoun (2003) and Nyos (2001), respectively, resulting in gas saturation levels up to 97%. These natural hazards are distinguished by the potential for mitigation to prevent future disasters. Controlled degassing was initiated at Nyos (2001) and Monoun (2003) amid speculation it could inadvertently destabilize the lakes and trigger another gas burst. Our measurements indicate that water column structure has not been compromised by the degassing and local stability is increasing in the zones of degassing. Furthermore, gas content has been reduced in the lakes ≈12-14%. However, as gas is removed, the pressure at pipe inlets is reduced, and the removal rate will decrease over time. Based on 12 years of limnological measurements we developed a model of future removal rates and gas inventory, which predicts that in Monoun the current pipe will remove ≈30% of the gas remaining before the natural gas recharge balances the removal rate. In Nyos the single pipe will remove ≈25% of the gas remaining by 2015; this slow removal extends the present risk to local populations. More pipes and continued vigilance are required to reduce the risk of repeat disasters. Our model indicates that 75-99% of the gas remaining would be removed by 2010 with two pipes in Monoun and five pipes in Nyos, substantially reducing the risks.

Lakes Nyos and Monoun↗

Typology development of earthquake displays in free-choice learning environments, to inform earthquake early warning education in the United States

Free-choice learning environments, such as museums, national parks, interpretive trails, and visitor centers, are trusted sources of information in their communities and support lifelong learning. Earthquake education in these spaces creates awareness of earthquake hazards and risk in areas where people live or visit and, in turn, may increase engagement in preparedness behavior. The ShakeAlert® Earthquake Early Warning System helps publics prepare by warning in advance of shaking from significant earthquakes along the West Coast of the United States. ShakeAlert can minimize earthquake damage by prompting automated actions (e.g., slowing trains, shutting off water valves) and prompting personal protective actions like “Drop, Cover, and Hold On” to significantly reduce damage, injury, and loss of life. Individuals and communities must have a basic understanding of earthquake hazards, as well as an awareness of ShakeAlert technology, to know how to respond if they feel shaking or receive an alert. Currently, there is a lack of contemporary scholarship on how free-choice learning environments approach earthquake education through exhibits and displays. We analyzed a sample of existing earthquake exhibits and their themes in the United States and explored how different display types are uniquely engaging. We found that most displays did not include information about how to prepare for an earthquake or associated protective actions. From this and the development of the typology, our research posits a foundational framework for how best to incorporate place-based learning on earthquakes and early warning into centers of free-choice learning which may apply to a range of other natural hazards and will enhance public awareness and safety.

International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction↗

The 2006 eruption of Augustine Volcano, Alaska

Augustine Volcano, the most historically active volcano in Alaska’s Cook Inlet region, again showed signs of life in April 2005. Escalating seismic unrest, ground deformation, and gas emissions culminated in an eruption from January 11 to mid-March of 2006, the fifth major eruption in 75 years. The eruption began with a series of 13 short-lived blasts over 20 days that sent pyroclastic flows; snow, rock, and ice avalanches; and lahars down the volcano’s snow clad flanks; ash clouds drifted hundreds of kilometers downwind. Punctuated explosive activity gave way to effusion of lava and emplacement of thick block-and-ash flows on the volcano’s north flank that continued through mid-February. In mid-March renewed extrusion resulted in the building of a new, higher summit lava dome and two blocky lava flows on the north and northeast flanks of the cone. The eruption resulted in ash fall on many south-central Alaskan communities and disrupted air traffic in the region. Augustine’s frequent eruptions and relatively easy access have long drawn volcanologists to study the accumulation, ascent, and eruption of andesitic to dacitic magma. Studies of the most recent activity before 2006, in 1976 and 1986, revealed that the volcano lately produces explosive eruptions that are preceded by months of unrest and injection of new magma into a storage region in the upper several kilometers of the crust. Each of these eruptions then followed a similar progression from explosive to effusive behavior over several months. Petrologic and geophysical observations suggest that these three eruptions were triggered by similar magma mixing events and that the subsequent ascent and eruption of magma was governed by processes that were roughly constant from one eruption to the next. Geologic studies of the island show that in the more distant past parts of Augustine’s edifice have failed repeatedly, resulting in debris avalanches that entered the sea and, at least once, in 1883, caused a tsunami that hit surrounding Cook Inlet coastlines. Such edifice failures and resultant local tsunamis should be expected in the future. Recognition of Augustine’s frequent activity and hazardous nature led to the installation of a network of telemetered seismometers beginning in 1971, the establishment of a geodetic network in 1988, and the installation of other new instrumentation such as pressure sensors, broadband seismometers, and cameras by the Alaska Volcano Observatory (AVO), and the selection of Augustine for geodetic instrumentation through the EarthScope/Plate Boundary Observatory program in 2004. In addition, remote sensing techniques, such as airborne thermal imaging and the advanced spaceborne thermal emission and reflection radiometer (ASTER), provided novel and often critical information as the 2006 eruption progressed. The combination of a long-term seismic network and an array of new monitoring techniques has provided a breadth and depth of understanding of Augustine’s most recent activity that was not possible in the past. This volume contains 28 chapters reporting on a diverse suite of new scientific observations and investigations that were motivated by the 2006 eruption. Understanding the magmatic processes that drive eruptions, identifying eruptive events, tracking the movement of ash clouds, and communicating the resultant hazards to other government agencies and the public are all critical tasks for AVO, and chapters touch upon all of these topics. One goal in this compilation is to synthesize the diverse information into as complete an understanding of the magmatic and eruptive processes as possible. An equally important goal is to provide a framework for diagnosing periods of unrest and formulating forecasts of eruptions that will certainly take place at Augustine in the future. This latter goal is especially important, as Augustine’s frequent eruptive activity suggests that another eruption can be expected within the next several decades. Consequently, the investigations in this volume are intended to provide both a means to better forecast future eruptive episodes and also an opportunity to formulate and test future hypotheses for magmatic and eruptive processes. Future eruptions may follow a course similar to those observed in 1976, 1986, and 2006. However, a major perturbation that upsets conditions within the magmatic system could occur, owing perhaps to the rise of a much larger or different parental magma or to a large edifice failure similar to the 1883 sector collapse. In such events, the comprehensive study of past eruptions will provide data critical to assessing the current state of the magmatic system. In assembling this volume we have sought as consistent and accurate a portrayal of the 2006 eruption as possible. We have asked all authors to refer to the same basic eruption chronology, unless their observations and data require alternative explanations. Naturally, not all techniques or methodologies produce a completely consistent set of observations, nor do the precise conclusions in every paper support one another. We have grouped chapters on the basis of discipline. Papers that focus on specific techniques, methodology, or instrumentation are placed throughout the volume where they best fit with others that rely on their results.

Alaska↗

U.S. Geological Survey programs in Texas

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) is the Federal Government's primary source of data on the quantity and quality of the Nation's water resources, its principal civilian map making agency, and its primary provider of information on natural hazards and mineral, energy, and biological resources. The USGS makes unbiased scientific information available equally to all interested parties. Most USGS work in Texas involves the appraisal of the State's water resources in cooperation with more than 80 local, State, and Federal agencies. The foundation of a wide range of hydrologic data-collection and interpretive programs is the stream-gaging program. The Texas network of streamflow-gaging stations, which provides water data for water-resources planning and design, hydrologic research, and operation of water-resources projects, is part of a nationwide aggregation of networks that is unique because of nationally consistent, prescribed standards by which the data are collected and processed. The USGS continues to expand collection of data for paper and digital maps. The best-known products of the USGS in Texas are its 1:24,000-scale topographic maps. These maps depict basic natural and cultural features of the landscape. Maps at this scale (1 inch on the map represents 2,000 feet on the ground) are useful for civil engineering, land-use planning, and natural-resource monitoring, and have long been favorites with the general public for a wide variety of outdoor uses. The USGS also continues to monitor geologic conditions in Texas associated with rare but potentially dangerous earthquakes. Recently, the Nation Biological Service (now the Biological Resources Division) joined the USGS to continue their appraisal of the nation's biological resources.

Fact Sheet↗

Sustainable growth in America's heartland: 3-D geologic maps as the foundation

The Central Great Lakes States of Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, and Ohio constitute one of the most productive and economically important regions in the country—America’s heartland. The agriculture, industry, business, recreation, and ecology of these States are based on a common geologic heritage. During the last 1.8 million years, glaciers repeatedly advanced and retreated across the region, leaving behind a thick, complex blanket of intermixed layers of mud, clay, silt, sand, and gravel. These glacial deposits contain bountiful resources—rich soils; plentiful ground water; minerals for construction; land for agriculture, development, recreation, and wildlife habitat; and lakes and rivers for recreation and wildlife habitat. These materials are also subject to natural hazards—floods, erosion, landslides, radon, and earthquakes—and manmade problems such as soil, sediment, and water contamination from point and nonpoint sources. Resulting land degradation has impaired and restricted human use and enjoyment of the land and caused degradation and loss of wildlife habitat. The continued economic growth of the region and the security of its population and environment are related to fundamental issues involving land, water, mineral, and biological resources. Addressing the conflicting demands on these resources without adequate information can result in land-use decisions that are not compatible with sustainable development and a continued high quality of life for future generations. Decisionmakers need knowledge of the glacial deposits— their characteristics, three-dimensional (3-D) distribution, and thickness. To provide this knowledge, a coalition of State and Federal Geological Surveys (Illinois State Geological Survey, Indiana Geological Survey, Michigan Geological Survey Division, Ohio Division of Geological Survey, U.S. Geological Survey) has formed to conduct the necessary studies in these four States to depict the 3-D nature of these glacial and related deposits and to interpret these data in cooperation with the user community for specific societal needs.

Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Ohio↗

Geographic signatures of North American West Coast estuaries

West Coast estuaries are geologically young and composed of a variety of geomorphological types. These estuaries range from large fjords to shallow lagoons; from large to low freshwater flows. Natural hazards include E1 Niños, strong Pacific storms, and active tectonic activity. West Coast estuaries support a wide range of living resources: five salmon species, harvestable shellfish, waterfowl and marine birds, marine mammals, and a variety of algae and plants. Although populations of many of these living resources have declined (salmonids), others have increased (marine mammals). West Coast estuaries are also centers of commerce and increasingly large shipping traffic. The West Coast human population is rising faster than most other areas of the U.S. and Canada, and is distributed heavily in southern California, the San Francisco Bay area, around Puget Sound, and the Fraser River estuary. While water pollution is a problem in many of the urbanized estuaries, most estuaries do not suffer from poor water quality. Primary estuarine problems include habitat alterations, degradation, and loss; diverted freshwater flows; marine sediment contamination; and exotic species introductions. The growing West Coast economy and population are in part related to the quality of life, which is dependent on the use and enjoyment of abundant coastal natural resources.

British Columbia;California;Oregon;Washington↗

The geologic, geomorphic, and hydrologic context underlying options for long-term management of the Spirit Lake outlet near Mount St. Helens, Washington

The 1980 eruption of Mount St. Helens produced a massive landslide and consequent pyroclastic currents, deposits of which blocked the outlet to Spirit Lake. Without an outlet, the lake began to rise, threatening a breaching of the blockage and release of a massive volume of water. To mitigate the hazard posed by the rising lake and provide an outlet, in 1984–1985 the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers bored a 2.6-km (8,500-ft) long tunnel through a bedrock ridge on the western edge of the lake. Locally, the tunnel crosses weak rock along faults, and external pressures in these weak zones have caused rock heave and support failures, which have necessitated periodic major repairs. During its more than 30-year lifetime, the tunnel has maintained the level of Spirit Lake at a safe elevation. The lake approaches its maximum safe operating level only when the tunnel closes for repair. The most recent major repair in early 2016 highlights the need for a reliable outlet that does not require repeated and expensive interventions and extended closures. The U.S. Forest Service, U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, and U.S. Geological Survey developed, reviewed, and analyzed an array of options for a long-term plan to remove the threat of catastrophic failure of the tunnel. In this report, we (1) provide background on natural hazards that can affect existing and alternative infrastructure; (2) evaluate the potential for tunnel failure and consequent breaching of the blockage posed by the current tunnel infrastructure; (3) evaluate potential consequences to downstream communities and infrastructure in the event of a catastrophic breaching of the blockage; (4) evaluate potential risks associated with alternative lake outlets; and (5) identify data and knowledge gaps that need to be addressed to fully evaluate options available to management.

Washington↗

Seafloor observations eliminate a landslide as the source of the 1918 Puerto Rico Tsunami

The 11 October 1918 devastating tsunami in northwest Puerto Rico had been used as an example for earthquake‐induced landslide tsunami hazard. Three pieces of evidence pointed to a landslide as the origin of the tsunami: the discovery of a large submarine landslide scar from bathymetry data collected by shipboard high‐resolution multibeam sonar, reported breaks of submarine cable within the scar, and the fit of tsunami models to flooding observations. Newly processed seafloor imagery collected by remotely operated vehicle (ROV) show, however, pervasive Fe–Mn crust (patina) on the landslide walls and floor, indicating that the landslide scar is at least several hundred years old. C 14 "> 14 C dates of sediment covering the landslide floor verify this interpretation. Although we have not searched the region systematically for an alternative tsunami source, we propose a possible source—a two‐segment normal‐fault rupture along the eastern wall of Mona rift. The proposed fault location matches the published normal faults with steep bathymetry and is close to the International Seismological Center–Global Earthquake Model catalog locations of the 1918 mainshock and aftershocks. The ROV observations further show fresh vertical slickensides and rock exposure along the proposed fault trace. Hydrodynamic models from an M w "> M w 7.2 earthquake rupture along the eastern wall of the rift faithfully reproduce the reported tsunami amplitudes, polarities, and arrival times. Our analysis emphasizes the value of close‐up observations and physical samples to augment remote sensing data in natural hazard studies.

Puerto Rico↗

Meteotsunamis triggered by tropical cyclones

Tropical cyclones are one of the most destructive natural hazards and much of the damage and casualties they cause are flood-related. Accurate characterization and prediction of total water levels during extreme storms is necessary to minimize coastal impacts. While meteotsunamis are known to influence water levels and to produce severe consequences, they have been disregarded during tropical cyclones. This study demonstrates that meteotsunami waves commonly occur during tropical cyclones, and that they can significantly contribute to total water levels. We have discovered that the most extreme meteotsunami events were triggered by inherent features of the structure of tropical cyclones: inner and outer spiral rainbands. While outer distant spiral rainbands produced single-peak meteotsunami waves, inner spiral rainbands triggered longer lasting (~12 hours) wave trains on the front side of the tropical cyclones. We use an idealized coupled ocean-atmosphere-wave numerical model to analyze TC meteotsunami generation and propagation mechanisms.

Nature Communications↗

USGS ecosystem research for the next decade: advancing discovery and application in parks and protected areas through collaboration

Ecosystems within parks and protected areas in the United States and throughout the world are being transformed at an unprecedented rate. Changes associated with natural hazards, greenhouse gas emissions, and increasing demands for water, food, land, energy and mineral resources are placing urgency on sound decision making that will help sustain our Nation’s economic and environmental well-being (Millennium Ecosystem Assessment, 2005). In recognition of the importance of science in making these decisions, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) in 2007 identified ecosystem science as one of six science directions included in a comprehensive decadal strategy (USGS 2007). The Ecosystems Mission Area was identified as essential for integrating activity within the USGS and as a key to enhanced integration with other Federal and private sector research and management organizations (Myers at al., 2007). This paper focuses on benefits to parks and protected areas from the USGS Ecosystems Mission Area plan that expanded the scope of the original 2007 science strategy, to identify the Bureau’s work in ecosystem science over the next decade (Williams et al., 2013). The plan describes a framework that encompasses both basic and applied science and allows the USGS to continue to contribute meaningfully to conservation and management issues related to the Nation’s parks and ecological resources. This framework relies on maintaining long-standing, collaborative relationships with partners in both conducting science and applying scientific results. Here we summarize the major components of the USGS Ecosystems Science Strategy, articulating the vision, goals and strategic approaches, then outlining some of the proposed actions that will ultimately prove useful to those managing parks and protected areas. We end with a discussion on the future of ecosystem science for the USGS and how it can be used to evaluate ecosystem change and the associated consequences to management of our Nation’s natural resources.

The George Wright Forum↗

The HayWired Earthquake Scenario

Foreword The 1906 Great San Francisco earthquake (magnitude 7.8) and the 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake (magnitude 6.9) each motivated residents of the San Francisco Bay region to build countermeasures to earthquakes into the fabric of the region. Since Loma Prieta, bay-region communities, governments, and utilities have invested tens of billions of dollars in seismic upgrades and retrofits and replacements of older buildings and infrastructure. Innovation and state-of-the-art engineering, informed by science, including novel seismic-hazard assessments, have been applied to the challenge of increasing seismic resilience throughout the bay region. However, as long as people live and work in seismically vulnerable buildings or rely on seismically vulnerable transportation and utilities, more work remains to be done. With that in mind, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and its partners developed the HayWired scenario as a tool to enable further actions that can change the outcome when the next major earthquake strikes. By illuminating the likely impacts to the present-day built environment, well-constructed scenarios can and have spurred officials and citizens to take steps that change the outcomes the scenario describes, whether used to guide more realistic response and recovery exercises or to launch mitigation measures that will reduce future risk. The HayWired scenario is the latest in a series of like-minded efforts to bring a special focus onto the impacts that could occur when the Hayward Fault again ruptures through the east side of the San Francisco Bay region as it last did in 1868. Cities in the east bay along the Richmond, Oakland, and Fremont corridor would be hit hardest by earthquake ground shaking, surface fault rupture, aftershocks, and fault afterslip, but the impacts would reach throughout the bay region and far beyond. The HayWired scenario name reflects our increased reliance on the Internet and telecommunications and also alludes to the interconnectedness of infrastructure, society, and our economy. How would this earthquake scenario, striking close to Silicon Valley, impact our interconnected world in ways and at a scale we have not experienced in any previous domestic earthquake? The area of present-day Contra Costa, Alameda, and Santa Clara Counties contended with a magnitude-6.8 earthquake in 1868 on the Hayward Fault. Although sparsely populated then, about 30 people were killed and extensive property damage resulted. The question of what an earthquake like that would do today has been examined before and is now revisited in the HayWired scenario. Scientists have documented a series of prehistoric earthquakes on the Hayward Fault and are confident that the threat of a future earthquake, like that modeled in the HayWired scenario, is real and could happen at any time. The team assembled to build this scenario has brought innovative new approaches to examining the natural hazards, impacts, and consequences of such an event. Such an earthquake would also be accompanied by widespread liquefaction and landslides, which are treated in greater detail than ever before. The team also considers how the now-prototype ShakeAlert earthquake early warning system could provide useful public alerts and automatic actions. Scientific Investigations Report 2017–5013 and accompanying data releases are the products of an effort led by the USGS, but this body of work was created through the combined efforts of a large team including partners who have come together to form the HayWired Coalition (see chapter A). Use of the HayWired scenario has already begun. More than a full year of intensive partner engagement, beginning in April 2017, is being directed toward producing the most in-depth look ever at the impacts and consequences of a large earthquake on the Hayward Fault. With the HayWired scenario, our hope is to encourage and support the active ongoing engagement of the entire community of the San Francisco Bay region by providing the scientific, engineering, and economic and social science inputs for use in exercises and planning well into the future. As HayWired volumes are published, they will be made available at https://doi.org/10.3133/sir20175013 .

California↗

High tsunami frequency as a result of combined strike-slip faulting and coastal landslides

Earthquakes on strike-slip faults can produce devastating natural hazards. However, because they consist predominantly of lateral motion, these faults are rarely associated with significant uplift or tsunami generation. And although submarine slides can generate tsunami, only a few per cent of all tsunami are believed to be triggered in this way. The 12 January Mw 7.0 Haiti earthquake exhibited primarily strike-slip motion but nevertheless generated a tsunami. Here we present data from a comprehensive field survey that covered the onshore and offshore area around the epicentre to document that modest uplift together with slope failure caused tsunamigenesis. Submarine landslides caused the most severe tsunami locally. Our analysis suggests that slide-generated tsunami occur an order-of-magnitude more frequently along the Gonave microplate than global estimates predict. Uplift was generated because of the earthquake?s location, where the Caribbean and Gonave microplates collide obliquely. The earthquake also caused liquefaction at several river deltas that prograde rapidly and are prone to failure. We conclude that coastal strike-slip fault systems such as the Enriquillog-Plantain Garden fault produce relief conducive to rapid sedimentation, erosion and slope failure, so that even modest predominantly strike-slip earthquakes can cause potentially catastrophic slide-generated tsunamig-a risk that is underestimated at present. ?? 2010 Macmillan Publishers Limited. All rights reserved.

Nature Geoscience↗

High tsunami frequency as a result of combined strike-slip faulting and coastal landslides

Earthquakes on strike-slip faults can produce devastating natural hazards. However, because they consist predominantly of lateral motion, these faults are rarely associated with significant uplift or tsunami generation. And although submarine slides can generate tsunami, only a few per cent of all tsunami are believed to be triggered in this way. The 12 January M w 7.0 Haiti earthquake exhibited primarily strike-slip motion but nevertheless generated a tsunami. Here we present data from a comprehensive field survey that covered the onshore and offshore area around the epicentre to document that modest uplift together with slope failure caused tsunamigenesis. Submarine landslides caused the most severe tsunami locally. Our analysis suggests that slide-generated tsunami occur an order-of-magnitude more frequently along the Gonave microplate than global estimates predict. Uplift was generated because of the earthquake's location, where the Caribbean and Gonave microplates collide obliquely. The earthquake also caused liquefaction at several river deltas that prograde rapidly and are prone to failure. We conclude that coastal strike-slip fault systems such as the Enriquillo-Plantain Garden fault produce relief conducive to rapid sedimentation, erosion and slope failure, so that even modest predominantly strike-slip earthquakes can cause potentially catastrophic slide-generated tsunami - a risk that is underestimated at present.

Nature Geoscience↗

The wildland-urban interface in the United States based on 125 million building locations

The wildland-urban interface (WUI) is the focus of many important land management issues, such as wildfire, habitat fragmentation, invasive species, and human-wildlife conflicts. Wildfire is an especially critical issue, because housing growth in the WUI increases wildfire ignitions and the number of homes at risk. Identifying the WUI is important for assessing and mitigating impacts of development on wildlands and for protecting homes from natural hazards, but data on housing development for large areas are often coarse. We created new WUI maps for the conterminous U.S. based on 125 million individual building locations, offering higher spatial precision compared to existing maps based on U.S. census housing data. Building point locations were based on a building footprint dataset from Microsoft®. We classified WUI across the conterminous U.S. at 30-m resolution using a circular neighborhood mapping algorithm with a variable radius to determine thresholds of housing density and vegetation cover. We used our maps to (1) determine the total area of the WUI and number of buildings included, (2) assess the sensitivity of WUI area included and spatial pattern of WUI maps to choice of neighborhood size, (3) assess regional differences between building-based WUI maps and census-based WUI maps, and (4) determine how building location accuracy affected WUI map accuracy. Our building-based WUI maps identified 5.6% – 18.8% of the conterminous U.S. as being in the WUI, with larger neighborhoods increasing WUI area but excluding isolated building clusters. Building-based maps identified more WUI area relative to census-based maps for all but the smallest neighborhoods, particularly in the north-central states, and large differences were attributable to high numbers of non-housing structures in rural areas. Overall WUI classification accuracy was 98.0%. For wildfire risk mapping and for general purposes, WUI maps based on the 500-m neighborhood represent the original Federal Register definition of the WUI; these maps include clusters of buildings in and adjacent to wildlands and exclude remote, isolated buildings. Our approach for mapping the WUI offers flexibility and high spatial detail, and can be widely applied to take advantage of the growing availability of high-resolution building footprint datasets and classification methods.

Conterminous United States↗

Rethinking infiltration in wildfire-affected soils

Wildfires frequently result in natural hazards such as flash floods (Yates et al ., 2001) and debris flows (Cannon et a l., 2001a,b; Gabet and Sternberg, 2008). One of the principal causes of the increased risk of post-wildfire hydrologically driven hazards is reduced in filtration rates (e.g. Scott and van Wyk, 1990; Cerdà, 1998; Robichaud, 2000; Martin and Moody, 2001). Beyond the reduction in peak infiltration rate, there is mounting evidence that the fundamental physics of infiltration in wild fire-affected soils is different from unburned soils (e.g. Imeson et al. , 1992; Moody et al. , 2009; Moody and Ebel, 2012). Understanding post-wildfire hydrology is critical given the increasing wildfire incidence in the western USA (Westerling et al. , 2006) and elsewhere in the world (Kasischke and Turetsky, 2006; Holz and Veblen, 2011; Pausas and Fernández-Muñoz, 2012). Wildfire is a disturbance event with global distribution (Bowman et al. , 2009; Krawchuk et al. , 2009; Pechony and Shindell, 2010; Moritz et al. , 2012), and with increasing populations moving into fire-prone areas, understanding post-wildfire infiltration is of increasing importance for predicting post-wildfire consequences. Runoff is generally controlled by the infiltration-excess mechanism in fire-affected soils (e.g. Mayor et al ., 2007; Onda et al. , 2008; Kinner and Moody, 2010). It is essential that the fire community have conceptual models, physical equations and tools (i.e. numerical models) to predict infiltration and thus excess rainfall (after Horton, 1933), which can provide estimates of peak discharge, start of runoff, time to peak and total runoff for hydroclimatic scenarios after wildfires. Reductions in saturated hydraulic conductivity K sat [LT -1 ] are common for fire-affected soils, and the relatively low values observed explain the elevated flash flood hazards (e.g. K sat of 1–100 mm h -1 , Robichaud, 2000; Yates et al. , 2000; Martin and Moody, 2001; Robichaud et al. , 2007; Moody et al. , 2009; Neary, 2011; Nyman et al. , 2011).

Hydrological Processes↗

A hydrologic perspective of major U.S. droughts

Drought is a recurring natural hazard that has substantial human and environmental impacts. Given continued global warming and associated climate change, there is concern that droughts could become more severe and longer lasting. To better monitor and understand drought development and persistence, it is helpful to understand the development and climatic drivers of past droughts. In this study we use monthly runoff percentiles to identify five major drought events in the conterminous United States (CONUS) from 1901 through 2020. For each drought event we examined spatial patterns of departures of mean monthly precipitation, temperature, soil moisture storage, and runoff for 2,107 hydrologic units (HUs) across the CONUS. Results indicated that precipitation deficits have been the primary driver of past major-drought events and temperature a secondary driver, even of the most recent drought event (September 1999 through September 2015) when positive temperature anomalies occurred over most of the CONUS. Additionally, negative soil moisture storage departures were more negative than runoff departures during the five drought events we examined, which emphasizes the importance of measuring both runoff and soil moisture to monitor drought conditions. We also examined the use of statistical persistence to develop short-term (i.e., 1 month) forecasts of runoff drought conditions in the CONUS by developing autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models for each HU. Results indicated that persistence can be used to predict short-term changes in the spatial pattern of drought and the areal extent of drought, but that predictions of runoff magnitude for any particular site are often poor.

International Journal of Climatology↗

A preliminary environmental site investigation for a bridge over the Mississippi River at Moline, Illinois

The Illinois State Geological Survey completed a preliminary environmental site assessment along the alignment of Interstate 74 (I-74) and its bridge over the Mississippi River for the Illinois Department of Transportation (IDOT) in 2002. The objective of the study was to determine if any of the parcels proposed for acquisition or on which soil excavation was intended were sufficiently contaminated to require additional investigation by a commercial environmental consultant under contract to IDOT and to identify potential natural hazards that might have an impact on the proposed construction project. VOC were detected at 13 of 37 sites tested for VOC. These sites included an elevator manufacturer, former foundries, former and active machine shops, former and active gasoline stations, and a former automobile dealer. PAH above TACO Tier 1 residential standards were detected on an island in the Mississippi River. PCB was detected at a former foundry and a control box for a railroad. Magnetic anomalies that might indicate the presence of UST were detected in a park that formerly had been the site of a city garage, adjacent to a parking lot that formerly contained an automobile dealer, and at the sites of three former gasoline stations. These studies helped IDOT to save millions of dollars in highway construction projects. This is an abstract of a paper presented in Contaminated Soils, Sediments and Water: Success and Challenges (Massachusetts Fall 2005).

Conference Paper↗