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At least 181 records · Page 10Linked to original sources
USGS2024

Computation of bromide concentrations at the Kansas River at De Soto, Kansas, January 2021 through October 2023

The Kansas River is an essential water resource that provides drinking water to more than 950,000 people in northeastern Kansas. Water suppliers that rely on the Kansas River as a water-supply source use physical and chemical water-treatment strategies to remove contaminants before distribution. Water District No. 1 of Johnson County, Kansas (WaterOne), is the largest water supplier in the State and uses the Kansas and Missouri Rivers as water-supply sources to provide drinking water to the Kansas City metropolitan area. WaterOne has been using ozone disinfection as a primary water-treatment strategy since the summer of 2020. Water suppliers that rely on ozone disinfection have become increasingly concerned with the presence of elevated dissolved bromide (the negatively charged form of bromine; hereafter referred to as “bromide”) concentrations in their water-supply source. Ozone disinfection of source water containing elevated concentrations of bromide can lead to the formation of bromate, a regulated disinfection byproduct and probable carcinogen. Real-time computations of bromide concentrations upstream from the WaterOne source-water intake in the Kansas River can be used to assist WaterOne with proactive adjustment of water-treatment strategies. These computations can also be used to advance understanding of hydrologic processes affecting ozone disinfection and formation of bromate. This report documents the development of the surrogate-regression model that computes bromide concentrations in real time at De Soto, Kansas, and characterizes daily and monthly bromide concentrations at this location during the study period. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with WaterOne, collected specific conductance and discrete bromide sample data at the USGS streamgage Kansas River at De Soto, Kans. (06892350; hereafter referred to as “De Soto”), during January 2021 through October 2023 to develop a surrogate-regression model using ordinary least-squares regression that computes bromide concentrations at De Soto, which is about 15 miles upstream from the WaterOne source-water intake in the Kansas River. Specific conductance explained about 85 percent of the variance in bromide concentrations at De Soto during the study period. The surrogate-regression model documented in this report estimated that bromide concentrations at De Soto were likely to exceed the WaterOne water-treatment level of concern (150 micrograms per liter [μg/L]) when specific conductance was greater than or equal to about 930 microsiemens per centimeter at 25 degrees Celsius. Surrogate-regression model computations of bromide concentrations documented in this report are available at the USGS National Real-Time Water-Quality website ( https://nrtwq.usgs.gov/ ). Bromide concentrations in discrete samples ranged from 31.9 to 251 μg/L and exceeded the water-treatment level of concern in about 34 percent of the 41 samples collected at De Soto during January 2021 through October 2023. Computed daily bromide concentrations ranged from 38.2 to 277 μg/L and exceeded the water-treatment level of concern about 46 percent of the time during January 2021 through October 2023. Generally, an inverse relation was observed between bromide and streamflow during the study period. Higher bromide concentrations were observed during September through February, and lower bromide concentrations were observed during March through August. Seasonal median bromide concentrations were significantly different in all pairwise seasonal combinations, except for summer versus spring. Computed median bromide concentrations were highest during winter, followed by fall, then spring and summer.

Kansas↗
USGS2010

A deposit model for Mississippi Valley-Type lead-zinc ores

This report is a descriptive model of Mississippi Valley-Type (MVT) lead-zinc deposits that presents their geological, mineralogical and geochemical attributes and is part of an effort by the U.S. Geological Survey Mineral Resources Program to update existing models and develop new models that will be used for an upcoming national mineral resource assessment. This deposit modeling effort by the USGS is intended to supplement previously published models for use in mineral-resource and mineral-environmental assessments. Included in this report are geological, geophysical and geochemical assessment guides to assist in mineral resource estimation. The deposit attributes, including grade and tonnage of the deposits described in this report are based on a new mineral deposits data set of all known MVT deposits in the world. Mississippi Valley-Type (MVT) lead-zinc deposits are found throughout the world but the largest, and more intensely researched deposits occur in North America. The ores consist mainly of sphalerite, galena, and generally lesser amounts of iron sulfides. Silver is commonly an important commodity, whereas Cu is generally low, but is economically important in some deposits. Gangue minerals may include carbonates (dolomite, siderite, ankerite, calcite), and typically minor barite. Silicification of the host rocks (or quartz gangue) is generally minor, but may be abundant in a few deposits. The deposits have a broad range of relationships with their host rocks that includes stratabound, and discordant ores; in some deposits, stratiform and vein ore are important. The most important characteristics of MVT ore deposits are that they are hosted mainly by dolostone and limestone in platform carbonate sequences and usually located at flanks of basins, orogenic forelands, or foreland thrust belts inboard of the clastic rock-dominated passive margin sequences. They have no spatial or temporal relation to igneous rocks, which distinguishes them from skarn or other intrusive rock-related Pb-Zn ores. Abundant evidence has shown that the ore fluids were derived mainly from evaporated seawater and were driven within platform carbonates by large-scale tectonic events. MVT deposits formed mainly during the Phanerozoic with more than 80 percent of the deposits hosted in Phanerozoic rocks and less than 20 percent in Precambrian rocks. Phanerozoic-hosted MVT deposits also account for 94 percent of total MVT ore, and 93 percent of total MVT lead and zinc metal. Many MVT deposits formed during Devonian to Permian time, corresponding to a series of intense tectonic events during assimilation of Pangea. The second most important period for MVT deposit genesis was Cretaceous to Tertiary time when microplate assimilation affected the western margin of North America and Africa-Eurasia. Many subtypes or alternative classifications have been applied to MVT deposits. These alternative classifications reflect geographic and or specific geological features that some workers believe set them apart as unique (for example, Appalachian-, Alpine-, Reocin-, Irish-, Viburnum trend-types). However, we do not consider these alternative classifications or sub-types to be sufficiently different to warrant using them. This report also describes the geoenvironmental characteristic of MVT deposits. The response of MVT ores in the supergene environment is buffered by their placement in carbonate host rocks which commonly results in near-neutral associated drainage water. The geoenvironmental features and anthropogenic mining effects presented in this report illustrates this important environmental aspect of MVT deposits which separates them from other deposit types (especially coal, VHMS, Cu-porphyry, SEDEX, acid-sulfate polymetallic vein).

Scientific Investigations Report↗
USGS2023

Simulating groundwater flow in the Mississippi Alluvial Plain with a focus on the Mississippi Delta

The Mississippi Alluvial Plain has become one of the most important agricultural regions in the United States but relies heavily on groundwater for irrigation. On average, more than 12 billion gallons are withdrawn daily from the Mississippi River Valley alluvial aquifer. Declining groundwater levels, especially in the Delta region of northwest Mississippi and the Cache and Grand Prairie regions of eastern Arkansas, have led to concerns about future sustainability. The U.S. Geological Survey Mississippi Alluvial Plain Project is focused on quantifying the groundwater system in the alluvial plain and the response of groundwater resources to future development. A key objective of the project is to provide updated groundwater flow models supported by extensive data collection and analyses. MODFLOW 6, PEST++, and several open-source python packages were used to develop a simplified, faster running version of the Mississippi Embayment Regional Aquifer Study model that can provide boundary conditions for local inset models, including the Mississippi Delta model described in this report. An automated workflow was used for model construction, history matching, and development of baseline future climate scenarios. The models incorporate information from a Soil-Water-Balance code simulation of the terrestrial water balance, metering-based estimates of water use from thousands of wells, measured and estimated streamflow and stages, and the largest airborne electromagnetic survey flown to date in the United States. Baseline scenarios for the Mississippi Delta under potential future climates were constructed using recharge, surface runoff and irrigation pumping forcings from a future version of the Soil-Water-Balance model, driven by downscaled temperature and precipitation output from 10 general circulation model simulations, including high and moderate carbon emissions pathways. Results indicate a complex water balance that varies in time and space in terms of the terrestrial recharge, stream leakage, and regional groundwater flow components, which are affected by seasonal forcings, human activity, and alluvial geomorphology. The general circulation model outputs indicate a continued rise in average temperatures but no clear precipitation trend. Increased crop water demand is anticipated from the higher temperatures, resulting in increased irrigation withdrawals to sustain current levels of irrigated agriculture. Simulated drawdowns in groundwater levels at the mid-21st century vary greatly. Under moderate or wet climate scenarios, and in parts of the aquifer that are well connected to surface water, little to no additional drawdown is anticipated. Under dry or warm scenarios, drawdowns of as much as 10 meters or more are possible in parts of the aquifer that are relatively disconnected from surface water. Under dry or warm scenarios, the portion of the Delta with greater than 60 feet of saturated thickness could be reduced from near 100 percent currently (2018) to 80–90 percent by mid-century. Future simulations with the model could include alternative management scenarios to identify options for improving groundwater sustainability. The automated model construction workflows are designed to facilitate regular updating, making this a “living” framework that the Mississippi Department of Environmental Quality and other stakeholders can use for adaptive management going forward.

Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi↗
USGS2015

Proposed best modeling practices for assessing the effects of ecosystem restoration on fish

Large-scale aquatic ecosystem restoration is increasing and is often controversial because of the economic costs involved, with the focus of the controversies gravitating to the modeling of fish responses. We present a scheme for best practices in selecting, implementing, interpreting, and reporting of fish modeling designed to assess the effects of restoration actions on fish populations and aquatic food webs. Previous best practice schemes that tended to be more general are summarized, and they form the foundation for our scheme that is specifically tailored for fish and restoration. We then present a 31-step scheme, with supporting text and narrative for each step, which goes from understanding how the results will be used through post-auditing to ensure the approach is used effectively in subsequent applications. We also describe 13 concepts that need to be considered in parallel to these best practice steps. Examples of these concepts include: life cycles and strategies; variability and uncertainty; nonequilibrium theory; biological, temporal, and spatial scaling; explicit versus implicit representation of processes; and model validation. These concepts are often not considered or not explicitly stated and casual treatment of them leads to mis-communication and mis-understandings, which in turn, often underlie the resulting controversies. We illustrate a subset of these steps, and their associated concepts, using the three case studies of Glen Canyon Dam on the Colorado River, the wetlands of coastal Louisiana, and the Everglades. Use of our proposed scheme will require investment of additional time and effort (and dollars) to be done effectively. We argue that such an investment is well worth it and will more than pay back in the long run in effective and efficient restoration actions and likely avoided controversies and legal proceedings.

Ecological Modelling↗
USGS2009

Simulation of Groundwater Flow in the Coastal Plain Aquifer System of Virginia

The groundwater model documented in this report simulates the transient evolution of water levels in the aquifers and confining units of the Virginia Coastal Plain and adjacent portions of Maryland and North Carolina since 1890. Groundwater withdrawals have lowered water levels in Virginia Coastal Plain aquifers and have resulted in drawdown in the Potomac aquifer exceeding 200 feet in some areas. The discovery of the Chesapeake Bay impact crater and a revised conceptualization of the Potomac aquifer are two major changes to the hydrogeologic framework that have been incorporated into the groundwater model. The spatial scale of the model was selected on the basis of the primary function of the model of assessing the regional water-level responses of the confined aquifers beneath the Coastal Plain. The local horizontal groundwater flow through the surficial aquifer is not intended to be accurately simulated. Representation of recharge, evapotranspiration, and interaction with surface-water features, such as major rivers, lakes, the Chesapeake Bay, and the Atlantic Ocean, enable simulation of shallow flow-system details that influence locations of recharge to and discharge from the deeper confined flow system. The increased density of groundwater associated with the transition from fresh to salty groundwater near the Atlantic Ocean affects regional groundwater flow and was simulated with the Variable Density Flow Process of SEAWAT (a U.S. Geological Survey program for simulation of three-dimensional variable-density groundwater flow and transport). The groundwater density distribution was generated by a separate 108,000-year simulation of Pleistocene freshwater flushing around the Chesapeake Bay impact crater during transient sea-level changes. Specified-flux boundaries simulate increasing groundwater underflow out of the model domain into Maryland and minor underflow from the Piedmont Province into the model domain. Reported withdrawals accounted for approximately 75 percent of the total groundwater withdrawn from Coastal Plain aquifers during the year 2000. Unreported self-supplied withdrawals were simulated in the groundwater model by specifying their probable locations, magnitudes, and aquifer assignments on the basis of a separate study of domestic-well characteristics in Virginia. The groundwater flow model was calibrated to 7,183 historic water-level observations from 497 observation wells with the parameter-estimation codes UCODE-2005 and PEST. Most water-level observations were from the Potomac aquifer system, which permitted a more complex spatial distribution of simulated hydraulic conductivity within the Potomac aquifer than was possible for other aquifers. Zone, function, and pilot-point approaches were used to distribute assigned hydraulic properties within the aquifer system. The good fit (root mean square error = 3.6 feet) of simulated to observed water levels and reasonableness of the estimated parameter values indicate the model is a good representation of the physical groundwater flow system. The magnitudes and temporal and spatial distributions of residuals indicate no appreciable model bias. The model is intended to be useful for predicting changes in regional groundwater levels in the confined aquifer system in response to future pumping. Because the transient release of water stored in low-permeability confining units is simulated, drawdowns resulting from simulated pumping stresses may change substantially through time before reaching steady state. Consequently, transient simulations of water levels at different future times will be more accurate than a steady-state simulation for evaluating probable future aquifer-system responses to proposed pumping.

Scientific Investigations Report↗
USGS2001

Documentation and verification of VST2D; a model for simulating transient, Variably Saturated, coupled water-heat-solute Transport in heterogeneous, anisotropic 2-Dimensional, ground-water systems with variable fluid density

This report describes a model for simulating transient, Variably Saturated, coupled water-heatsolute Transport in heterogeneous, anisotropic, 2-Dimensional, ground-water systems with variable fluid density (VST2D). VST2D was developed to help understand the effects of natural and anthropogenic factors on quantity and quality of variably saturated ground-water systems. The model solves simultaneously for one or more dependent variables (pressure, temperature, and concentration) at nodes in a horizontal or vertical mesh using a quasi-linearized general minimum residual method. This approach enhances computational speed beyond the speed of a sequential approach. Heterogeneous and anisotropic conditions are implemented locally using individual element property descriptions. This implementation allows local principal directions to differ among elements and from the global solution domain coordinates. Boundary conditions can include time-varying pressure head (or moisture content), heat, and/or concentration; fluxes distributed along domain boundaries and/or at internal node points; and/or convective moisture, heat, and solute fluxes along the domain boundaries; and/or unit hydraulic gradient along domain boundaries. Other model features include temperature and concentration dependent density (liquid and vapor) and viscosity, sorption and/or decay of a solute, and capability to determine moisture content beyond residual to zero. These features are described in the documentation together with development of the governing equations, application of the finite-element formulation (using the Galerkin approach), solution procedure, mass and energy balance considerations, input requirements, and output options. The VST2D model was verified, and results included solutions for problems of water transport under isohaline and isothermal conditions, heat transport under isobaric and isohaline conditions, solute transport under isobaric and isothermal conditions, and coupled water-heat-solute transport. The first three problems considered in model verification were compared to either analytical or numerical solutions, whereas the coupled problem was compared to measured laboratory results for which no known analytic solutions or numerical models are available. The test results indicate the model is accurate and applicable for a wide range of conditions, including when water (liquid and vapor), heat (sensible and latent), and solute are coupled in ground-water systems. The cumulative residual errors for the coupled problem tested was less than 10–8 cubic centimeter per cubic centimeter, 10-5 moles per kilogram, and 102 calories per cubic meter for liquid water content, solute concentration and heat content, respectively. This model should be useful to hydrologists, engineers, and researchers interested in studying coupled processes associated with variably saturated transport in ground-water systems.

Water-Resources Investigations Report↗
USGS1982

Flow model of the Hudson River estuary from Albany to New Hamburg, New York

A one-dimensional transient-flow-simulation model was developed to represent a 76-mile reach of the tidal Hudson River between Albany and New Hamburg. In this reach, the direction of flow reverses four times daily as a result of tidal influence; this produces complex current patterns and retards the rate at which the river can flush out pollutants. In the model, the reach studied is treated as two subreaches to incorporate differences in channel conditions and to simplify model calibration. This report includes all stage (water-level) and discharge data that were used to calibrate and verify the model and compares the model results with measured data. The model accurately simulated observed flows, but further calibration based upon additional flow measurements would improve simulation of the flow magnitude and phasing of the tide reversal under low-flow conditions. The model can be used to calculate instantaneous stage, velocity, and discharge for any location in the reach and can also be used to calculate net volume flux between tide reversals.

New York↗
USGS2014

Deposit model for heavy-mineral sands in coastal environments

This report provides a descriptive model of heavy-mineral sands, which are sedimentary deposits of dense minerals that accumulate with sand, silt, and clay in coastal environments, locally forming economic concentrations of the heavy minerals. This deposit type is the main source of titanium feedstock for the titanium dioxide (TiO 2 ) pigments industry, through recovery of the minerals ilmenite (Fe 2+ TiO 3 ), rutile (TiO 2 ), and leucoxene (an alteration product of ilmenite). Heavy-mineral sands are also the principal source of zircon (ZrSiO 4 ) and its zirconium oxide; zircon is often recovered as a coproduct. Other heavy minerals produced as coproducts from some deposits are sillimanite/kyanite, staurolite, monazite, and garnet. Monazite [(Ce,La,Nd,Th)PO 4 ] is a source of rare earth elements as well as thorium, which is used in thorium-based nuclear power under development in India and elsewhere. The processes that form coastal deposits of heavy-mineral sands begin inland. High-grade metamorphic and igneous rocks that contain heavy minerals weather and erode, contributing detritus composed of sand, silt, clay, and heavy minerals to fluvial systems. Streams and rivers carry the detritus to the coast, where they are deposited in a variety of coastal environments, such as deltas, the beach face (foreshore), the nearshore, barrier islands or dunes, and tidal lagoons, as well as the channels and floodplains of streams and rivers in the coastal plain. The sediments are reworked by waves, tides, longshore currents, and wind, which are effective mechanisms for sorting the mineral grains on the basis of differences in their size and density. The finest-grained, most dense heavy minerals are the most effectively sorted. The result is that heavy minerals accumulate together, forming laminated or lens-shaped, heavy-mineral-rich sedimentary packages that can be several meters and even as much as tens of meters thick. Most economic deposits of heavy-mineral sands are Paleogene, Neogene, and Quaternary in age; some are modern coastal deposits. Superimposed on these basic processes of ore formation are a multitude of contributing and modifying factors, such as the following: Strong, sustained wave action moves sand from offshore to the shore, where the sand and heavy minerals are sorted by size and density. Mineral sorting occurs mainly on the upper part of the hightide swash (wave) zone. Fine-grained sands and heavy minerals on the foreshore can be remobilized by winds, forming heavy mineral-rich sand dunes behind the beach. Longshore drift combined with the geomorphology of the coast exert strong influence on the location of the heavy-mineral sands deposits. Sea level changes are a function of climatic changes, such as ice ages. Rises in regional sea level (transgression) and lowering of sea level (regression) strongly influence the deposition and preservation of heavy-mineral sands. The majority of heavy-mineral sands accumulation appears related to seaward progradation of the shore during regression events. Local faulting may affect the geomorphology of the coast, which controls the distribution of heavy mineral deposition in a coastal basin. Heavy mineral grains appear to weather primarily after their deposition in the coastal plain; this weathering is caused by groundwaters, humic acids, and other intrabasinal fluids. This weathering can enhance the TiO 2 content of ilmenite. Iron is leached from ilmenite during weathering, which thereby upgrades the TiO 2 content of the ilmenite, forming leucoxene. The resulting deposits of heavy-mineral sands can be voluminous. Individual bodies of heavy mineral-rich sands are typically about 1 kilometer wide and more than 5 kilometers long. Many heavy-mineral sands districts extend for more than 10 kilometers and contain several individual deposits that are spread along an ancient or modern strandline. Reported thicknesses of economic deposits range from 3 to 45 meters. Individual ore deposits typically comprise at least 10 megatonnes of ore (the total size of the individual sand-silt body), whose overall heavy-mineral content is 2 to greater than 10 percent. Heavy-mineral sands deposits are relatively easy to mine because they are weakly to poorly consolidated, and they are relatively easy to process. From a geoenvironmental standpoint, mining of heavy mineral-sands generates little or no acid or solubilized metals. However, environmental and human health concerns related to such mining include potential effects on indigenous flora and fauna, effects on local hydrology, and issues related to processing and storing thorium-bearing monazite, owing to its radioactivity. Regional exploration for deposits of heavy-mineral sands can utilize the analyses of stream sediment samples for Ti, Hf, the rare earth elements, Th, and U, and geophysical surveys, particularly radiometric (gamma-ray spectrometry for K, U, and Th) and magnetic methods. Geophysical anomalies may be small, and surveys are generally more successful when conducted close to sources of interest.

Scientific Investigations Report↗
USGS1995

Simulation of ground-water flow in alluvial basins in south-central Arizona and parts of adjacent states

Numerical modeling was used to examine the character of aquifer systems in alluvial basins in south-central Arizona. The report documents the modeling approach, design and calibration procedures, and results of simulations made by using specific and general models. Transferability of geohydrologic information among basins was tested and generally proved successful. Extensive sensitivity testing was done on all models. Sensitivity to specific properties is related to geologic environment and the magnitude of predevelopment flow quantities.

Arizona, California, Nevada, New Mexico↗
USGS2013

Descriptive and geoenvironmental model for Co-Cu-Au deposits in metasedimentary rocks

Introduction This report is a revised model for a specific type of cobalt-copper-gold (Co-Cu-Au) deposit that will be evaluated in the next U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) assessment of undiscovered mineral resources in the United States (see Ferrero and others, 2012). Emphasis is on providing an up-to-date deposit model that includes both geologic and geoenvironmental aspects. The new model presented here supersedes previous USGS models by Earhart (1986) and Evans and others (1995), which are based solely on deposits in the Blackbird mining district of central Idaho. This report is a broader synthesis of information on 19 Co-Cu-Au deposits occurring in predominantly metasedimentary successions worldwide (table 1–1) that generally share common geologic, mineralogical, and geochemical features; preliminary summary versions were presented in Slack and others (2010) and Slack and others (2011), which are superseded by this report. As defined herein, the individual Co-Cu-Au deposits are located more than 500 meters from similar deposits and contain 0.1 percent or more by weight of Co in ore or mineralized rock; some deposits included in the database lack reported average Co grades, but they contain high Co concentrations, at least locally. Most of the deposits also have high As contents, present in Co arsenide and sulfarsenide minerals. Type examples of the Co-Cu-Au deposits are those in the Blackbird district, Skuterud in Norway, and Kouvervarra and Juomasuo in Finland. Some deposits in the database have low grades for Cu (for example, NICO in Canada) or Au (for example, Lemmonlampi in Finland), but these deposits are included because their geological, mineralogical, and alteration features are similar to those of the type examples. Several deposits included in the model are partly hosted by metavolcanic or metaigneous rocks (including granite), but regionally these deposits are within metasedimentary successions; no deposits are wholly within granite or other plutonic igneous intrusions. Despite having a lower average Co grade, the Mt. Cobalt deposit in Australia is included here because it has past Co production from higher-grade ore zones (Nisbet and others, 1983). The Black Pine deposit in the Idaho cobalt belt is included because it contains mineable Co- and Au-rich lenses within Cu-rich mineralized zones (Formation Metals, Inc., 2012). Six deposits that lack data for average Co grades are also included because each reportedly contains abundant Co (>0.1 weight percent Co), at least locally. Many of the deposits are noteworthy as possible resources of Ag, Bi, W, Ni, Y, REE, and (or) U. Detailed data on the deposits listed in table 1–1, including references, are available in appendix 1. Significantly, the grouping in this report of Co-Cu-Au deposits in metasedimentary rocks into a single model includes deposits that other workers have previously classified in different ways. For background information, a global overview of different types of Co deposits worldwide is given in Smith (2001). Additional geologically and compositionally similar deposits are known, but have average Co grades less than 0.1 percent. Most of these deposits contain cobalt-rich pyrite and lack appreciable amounts of distinct Co sulfide and (or) sulfarsenide minerals. Such deposits are not discussed in detail in the following sections, but these deposits may be relevant to the descriptive and genetic models presented below. Examples include the Scadding Au-Co-Cu deposit in Ontario, Canada; the Vähäjoki Co-Cu-Au deposit in Finland; the Tuolugou Co-Au deposit in Qinghai Province, China; the Lala Co-Cu-UREE deposit in Sichuan Province, China; the Guelb Moghrein Cu-Au-Co deposit in Mauritania; and the Great Australia Co-Cu, Greenmount Cu-Au-Co, and Monakoff Cu-Au-Co-UAg deposits in Queensland, Australia. Detailed information on these deposits is presented in appendix 2.

Scientific Investigations Report↗
USGS2010

Factors influencing reporting and harvest probabilities in North American geese

We assessed variation in reporting probabilities of standard bands among species, populations, harvest locations, and size classes of North American geese to enable estimation of unbiased harvest probabilities. We included reward (US10,20,30,50, or100) and control (0) banded geese from 16 recognized goose populations of 4 species: Canada (Branta canadensis), cackling (B. hutchinsii), Ross's (Chen rossii), and snow geese (C. caerulescens). We incorporated spatially explicit direct recoveries and live recaptures into a multinomial model to estimate reporting, harvest, and band-retention probabilities. We compared various models for estimating harvest probabilities at country (United States vs. Canada), flyway (5 administrative regions), and harvest area (i.e., flyways divided into northern and southern sections) scales. Mean reporting probability of standard bands was 0.73 (95 CI 0.690.77). Point estimates of reporting probabilities for goose populations or spatial units varied from 0.52 to 0.93, but confidence intervals for individual estimates overlapped and model selection indicated that models with species, population, or spatial effects were less parsimonious than those without these effects. Our estimates were similar to recently reported estimates for mallards (Anas platyrhynchos). We provide current harvest probability estimates for these populations using our direct measures of reporting probability, improving the accuracy of previous estimates obtained from recovery probabilities alone. Goose managers and researchers throughout North America can use our reporting probabilities to correct recovery probabilities estimated from standard banding operations for deriving spatially explicit harvest probabilities.

Journal of Wildlife Management↗
USGS2023

An inventory of three-dimensional geologic models—U.S. Geological Survey, 2004–22

A database of spatial footprints and characteristics of three-dimensional geological models that were constructed by the U.S. Geological Survey between 2004 and 2022 was compiled as part of ongoing development of subsurface geologic information by the USGS National Cooperative Geologic Mapping Program. This initial inventory resulted in the compilation of 38 three-dimensional geological models that vary widely in their spatial extent, the type and purpose of the model, the number of subsurface units characterized by the model, and the software platforms used to create the model. This Data Report provides the scientific rationale and explanation of the contents of a companion USGS digital data release of spatial data and attributes associated with each three-dimensional model.

Data Report↗
USGS2016

Persistent slip rate discrepancies in the eastern California (USA) shear zone

Understanding fault slip rates in the eastern California shear zone (ECSZ) using GPS geodesy is complicated by potentially overlapping strain signals due to many sub-parallel strike-slip faults and by inconsistencies with geologic slip rates. The role of fault system geometry in describing ECSZ deformation may be investigated with total variation regularization, which algorithmically determines a best-fitting geometry from an initial model with numerous faults, constrained by a western United States GPS velocity field. The initial dense model (1) enables construction of the first geodetically constrained block model to include all ECSZ faults with geologic slip rates, allowing direct geologic-geodetic slip rate comparisons, and (2) permits fault system geometries with many active faults that are analogous to distributed interseismic deformation. Beginning with 58 ECSZ blocks, a model containing 10 ECSZ blocks is most consistent with geologic slip rates, reproducing five of 11 within their reported uncertainties. The model fits GPS observations with a mean residual velocity of 1.5 mm/yr. Persistent geologic-geodetic slip rate discrepancies occur on the Calico and Garlock faults, on which we estimate slip rates of 7.6 mm/yr and <2 mm/yr, respectively, indicating that inconsistencies between geology and geodesy may be concentrated on or near these faults and are not due to pervasive distributed deformation in the region. Discrepancies may in part be due to postseismic relaxation following the A.D. 1992 M w 7.3 Landers and 1999 M w 7.1 Hector Mine earthquakes. Otherwise, resolving geologic-geodetic discrepancies would require as much as 11.4 mm/yr of off-fault deformation within <10 km of the main ECSZ faults, with ∼5 mm/yr concentrated near the Calico fault.

California↗
USGS2009

Simulation of the Regional Ground-Water-Flow System and Ground-Water/Surface-Water Interaction in the Rock River Basin, Wisconsin

A regional, two-dimensional, areal ground-water-flow model was developed to simulate the ground-water-flow system and ground-water/surface-water interaction in the Rock River Basin. The model was developed by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the Rock River Coalition. The objectives of the regional model were to improve understanding of the ground-water-flow system and to develop a tool suitable for evaluating the effects of potential regional water-management programs. The computer code GFLOW was used because of the ease with which the model can simulate ground-water/surface-water interactions, provide a framework for simulating regional ground-water-flow systems, and be refined in a stepwise fashion to incorporate new data and simulate ground-water-flow patterns at multiple scales. The ground-water-flow model described in this report simulates the major hydrogeologic features of the modeled area, including bedrock and surficial aquifers, ground-water/surface-water interactions, and ground-water withdrawals from high-capacity wells. The steady-state model treats the ground-water-flow system as a single layer with hydraulic conductivity and base elevation zones that reflect the distribution of lithologic groups above the Precambrian bedrock and a regionally significant confining unit, the Maquoketa Formation. In the eastern part of the Basin where the shale-rich Maquoketa Formation is present, deep ground-water flow in the sandstone aquifer below the Maquoketa Formation was not simulated directly, but flow into this aquifer was incorporated into the GFLOW model from previous work in southeastern Wisconsin. Recharge was constrained primarily by stream base-flow estimates and was applied uniformly within zones guided by regional infiltration estimates for soils. The model includes average ground-water withdrawals from 1997 to 2006 for municipal wells and from 1997 to 2005 for high-capacity irrigation, industrial, and commercial wells. In addition, the model routes tributary base flow through the river network to the Rock River. The parameter-estimation code PEST was linked to the GFLOW model to select the combination of parameter values best able to match more than 8,000 water-level measurements and base-flow estimates at 9 streamgages. Results from the calibrated GFLOW model show simulated (1) ground-water-flow directions, (2) ground-water/surface-water interactions, as depicted in a map of gaining and losing river and lake sections, (3) ground-water contributing areas for selected tributary rivers, and (4) areas of relatively local ground water captured by rivers. Ground-water flow patterns are controlled primarily by river geometries, with most river sections gaining water from the ground-water-flow system; losing sections are most common on the downgradient shore of lakes and reservoirs or near major pumping centers. Ground-water contributing areas to tributary rivers generally coincide with surface watersheds; however the locations of ground-water divides are controlled by the water table, whereas surface-water divides are controlled by surface topography. Finally, areas of relatively local ground water captured by rivers generally extend upgradient from rivers but are modified by the regional flow pattern, such that these areas tend to shift toward regional ground-water divides for relatively small rivers. It is important to recognize the limitations of this regional-scale model. Heterogeneities in subsurface properties and in recharge rates are considered only at a very broad scale (miles to tens of miles). No account is taken of vertical variations in properties or pumping rates, and no provision is made to account for stacked ground-water-flow systems that have different flow patterns at different depths. Small-scale flow systems (hundreds to thousands of feet) associated with minor water bodies are not considered; as a result, the model is not currently designed for simulating site-specifi

Scientific Investigations Report↗
USGS2009

Description and evaluation of numerical groundwater flow models for the Edwards Aquifer, south-central Texas

A substantial number of public water system wells in south-central Texas withdraw groundwater from the karstic, highly productive Edwards aquifer. However, the use of numerical groundwater flow models to aid in the delineation of contributing areas for public water system wells in the Edwards aquifer is problematic because of the complex hydrogeologic framework and the presence of conduit-dominated flow paths in the aquifer. The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Texas Commission on Environmental Quality, evaluated six published numerical groundwater flow models (all deterministic) that have been developed for the Edwards aquifer San Antonio segment or Barton Springs segment, or both. This report describes the models developed and evaluates each with respect to accessibility and ease of use, range of conditions simulated, accuracy of simulations, agreement with dye-tracer tests, and limitations of the models. These models are (1) GWSIM model of the San Antonio segment, a FORTRAN computer-model code that pre-dates the development of MODFLOW; (2) MODFLOW conduit-flow model of San Antonio and Barton Springs segments; (3) MODFLOW diffuse-flow model of San Antonio and Barton Springs segments; (4) MODFLOW Groundwater Availability Modeling [GAM] model of the Barton Springs segment; (5) MODFLOW recalibrated GAM model of the Barton Springs segment; and (6) MODFLOW–DCM (dual conductivity model) conduit model of the Barton Springs segment. The GWSIM model code is not commercially available, is limited in its application to the San Antonio segment of the Edwards aquifer, and lacks the ability of MODFLOW to easily incorporate newly developed processes and packages to better simulate hydrologic processes. MODFLOW is a widely used and tested code for numerical modeling of groundwater flow, is well documented, and is in the public domain. These attributes make MODFLOW a preferred code with regard to accessibility and ease of use. The MODFLOW conduit-flow model incorporates improvements over previous models by using (1) a user-friendly interface, (2) updated computer codes (MODFLOW–96 and MODFLOW–2000), (3) a finer grid resolution, (4) less-restrictive boundary conditions, (5) an improved discretization of hydraulic conductivity, (6) more accurate estimates of pumping stresses, (7) a long transient simulation period (54 years, 1947–2000), and (8) a refined representation of high-permeability zones or conduits. All of the models except the MODFLOW–DCM conduit model have limitations resulting from the use of Darcy’s law to simulate groundwater flow in a karst aquifer system where non-Darcian, turbulent flow might actually dominate. The MODFLOW–DCM conduit model is an improvement in the ability to simulate karst-like flow conditions in conjunction with porous-media-type matrix flow. However, the MODFLOW–DCM conduit model has had limited application and testing and currently (2008) lacks commercially available pre- and post-processors. The MODFLOW conduit-flow and diffuse-flow Edwards aquifer models are limited by the lack of calibration for the northern part of the Barton Springs segment (Travis County) and their reliance on the use of the calibrated hydraulic conductivity and storativity values from the calibrated Barton Springs segment GAM model. The major limitation of the Barton Springs segment GAM and recalibrated GAM models is that they were calibrated to match measured water levels and springflows for a restrictive range of hydrologic conditions, with each model having different hydraulic conductivity and storativity values appropriate to the hydrologic conditions that were simulated. The need for two different sets of hydraulic conductivity and storativity values increases the uncertainty associated with the accuracy of either set of values, illustrates the non-uniqueness of the model solution, and probably most importantly demonstrates the limitations of using a one-layer model to represent the heterogeneous hydrostratigraphic units composing the Edwards aquifer. In general, the best matches or agreement between groundwater flow directions inferred by numerical model simulation, and by dye-tracer tests, are observed where model outputs accurately reproduce the configuration of the potentiometric surface with regard to the positions of major and minor groundwater troughs and divides. None of the models, with the possible exception of the MODFLOW–DCM conduit model, has a documented capability to accurately simulate travel times for conduit-dominated velocities in the Edwards aquifer. Public water system assessments of wells in the Barton Springs segment of the Edwards aquifer, and elsewhere where conduit-flow conditions are thought to dominate aquifer hydraulic behavior, might be enhanced by use of either the MODFLOW–DCM model or the newly developed U.S. Geological Survey MODFLOW Conduit-Flow Process module for MODFLOW–2005, because each incorporates a type of dual or triple hydraulic conductivity approach and has the capability to explicitly simulate turbulent flow and conduit hydraulic characteristics.

Texas↗
USGS1997

Digital data sets that describe aquifer characteristics of the Elk City Aquifer in western Oklahoma

ARC/INFO export and nonproprietary format files This diskette contains digitized aquifer boundaries and maps of hydraulic conductivity, recharge, and ground-water level elevation contours for the Elk City aquifer in western Oklahoma. The aquifer covers an area of approximately 193,000 acres and supplies ground water for irrigation, domestic, and industrial purposes in Beckham, Custer, Roger Mills, and Washita Counties along the divide between the Washita and Red River basins. The Elk City aquifer consists of the Elk City Sandstone and overlying terrace deposits, made up of clay, silt, sand and gravel, and dune sands in the eastern part and sand and gravel of the Ogallala Formation (or High Plains aquifer) in the western part of the aquifer. The Elk City aquifer is unconfined and composed of very friable sandstone, lightly cemented with clay, calcite, gypsum, or iron oxide. Most of the grains are fine-sized quartz but the grain size ranges from clay to cobble in the aquifer. The Doxey Shale underlies the Elk City aquifer and acts as a confining unit, restricting the downward movement of ground water. All of the data sets were digitized and created from information and maps in a ground-water modeling thesis and report of the Elk City aquifer. The maps digitized were published at a scale of 1:63,360. Ground-water flow models are numerical representations that simplify and aggregate natural systems. Models are not unique; different combinations of aquifer characteristics may produce similar results. Therefore, values of hydraulic conductivity and recharge used in the model and presented in this data set are not precise, but are within a reasonable range when compared to independently collected data.

Oklahoma↗
USGS1991

Band reporting rates for mallards with reward bands of different dollar values

Adult male mallards ( Anas platyrhynchos ) were banded in summer 1987 with reward bands of different dollar values (0-$400) to determine the lowest dollar value that would yield a reporting rate approaching 1.0. During the 1987-88 and 1988-89 hunting seasons, rewards of between 50 and $100 were required to yield a reporting rate near 1.0. We estimated reporting rate of standard bands to be 0.32. Reward bands with 5 and $10 values produced reporting rates that were 1.5-2.0 times as large as those of standard bands. We developed a linear-logistic model to predict reporting rate as a function of the dollar value of reward bands.

Manitoba, Saskatchewan↗
USGS2023

Application of the Stream Salmonid Simulator (S3) model to assess fall Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) production in the American River, California

Executive Summary Anadromous fish returning to the lower American River are restricted to 36 kilometers of free-flowing river between Nimbus Dam and American River’s confluence with the Sacramento River, California. Salmon in the American River provide an important freshwater recreational fishery. However, annual salmon production in the American River in recent years has been low relative to the mid-1990s (Surface Water Resources, Inc., 2001). To investigate the low production of fall-run Chinook salmon ( Oncorhynchus tshawytscha ), the Bureau of Reclamation requested that the U.S. Geological Survey apply the Stream Salmonid Simulator (S3) model to the population of fall-run Chinook salmon on the American River. The American River was chosen among seven candidate Sacramento Basin rivers for S3 application. The American River was selected because of its management and public interest, recently low anadromous fish production, and rich time series of key demographic data needed for S3 application. Data that were not available, however, were empirical estimates on juvenile salmon habitat suitability in the American River. Therefore, a large component of applying S3 to the American River was devoted to the estimation of juvenile salmon habitat suitability and capacity. This entailed snorkeling the lower American River for 3 weeks in March 2021 during the early out-migration period for juvenile Chinook salmon. These efforts were fruitful and showed that the typically small fish (<55 millimeters) in the American River preferred much shallower depths than predicted by habitat suitability criteria derived from the literature for this population. Having empirical estimates on juvenile salmon in the American River provided a solid foundation from which to simulate the population using the S3 model. The S3 model is a spatially explicit population model that runs on a daily time step to simulate redd superimposition, egg maturation, fry emergence and the subsequent growth, survival, and emigration of juvenile Chinook salmon from the river. The key features of this model relevant to this report include (1) a temperature-dependent bioenergetics model driving daily growth rates; (2) density-dependent dynamics that are influenced by the effect of flow on suitable habitat area; and (3) within-year habitat, river flow, and water temperature effects specific to spawning, egg incubation, and fry, parr, and smolt life stages. We used estimates of spawning escapement and geo-referenced redd locations to quantify the spatial and temporal distribution of female spawners for brood years 2014–19. These estimates of female spawners initiate the simulation of each year’s juvenile salmon emergence and emigration over a spatial domain extending from Nimbus Dam to the river’s confluence with the Sacramento River. Using weekly estimates of juvenile salmon abundance and size (fork length) that passed the Watt Avenue fish trap (river kilometer 14.7), we calibrated the S3 model by estimating three key demographic parameters for each year, y : (1) S y , the average daily survival probability, (2) M 0y , the intercept for density-dependence in movement, representing the average daily probability of remaining in a habitat at zero abundance, and (3) C y , the average daily proportion of maximum consumption. These parameters were obtained by minimizing the Mallow’s distance (Lupu and others, 2017) between distributions of weekly abundances and sizes of fish at the traps and weekly simulated abundances and sizes (by S3). Investigation of model fit showed excellent agreement between simulated annual abundances and the abundance of fish passing the fish trap. However, when we compared weekly abundances at the fish trap, S3 under-predicted peaks and over-predicted troughs in the time series of weekly abundances at the fish trap. Thus, some unknown within-year effects have yet to be identified and incorporated in the S3 model. Identifying these important effects and incorporating them in the S3 model would help explain the lack of fit between estimated and simulated weekly abundances. We estimated parameters for 6 years that included a wide range of female spawner abundances (3,057–10,753) and water year types (Critical–Wet). We contrast our estimated parameters to the corresponding number of female spawners and the water year type for the Sacramento Valley. By happenstance, years having higher annual spawner abundances concurred with Critical to Dry water year types. Estimates of survival trended lower with higher spawner abundances and Critical to Dry conditions. In contrast, the extremely wet water year of 2017 had the lowest M 0y , suggesting less density-dependence in fish movement, and the lowest C y , suggesting lower average consumption in this year. When this high-flow year was excluded, a trend towards higher probabilities of fish remaining in a habitat at low abundance and lower proportions of maximum consumption was apparent from Critical to Wet conditions, but only 5 years of data were included. Except for 2017, daily proportions of maximum consumption were relatively high ( C y > 0.83), suggesting that fish were feeding at reasonably high proportions relative to the expected maximum consumption as defined by the “Wisconsin” bioenergetics model (Stewart and Ibarra, 1991). Survival estimates from fry emergence to outmigration at the Sacramento River confluence were generally low when integrated over time. The highest daily survival probability was S y = 0.93 in 2019, or 50 percent total mortality after 10 days. In contrast, our lowest daily survival probability was S y = 0.74 in 2015, or 95 percent total mortality after 10 days. Consequently, even our highest estimated daily survival probability might be considered low. This is especially true given that S y was estimated over a relatively short distance (<14.7 kilometers) from emergence to the Watt Avenue fish trap. Several factors, including our assumed and relatively high daily egg survival rate of 0.9975, could influence juvenile survival estimates. For example, an egg survival rate of 0.9975 results in 3-percent total mortality after 10 days. Egg mortality estimates used in S3 calibration were approximated from egg survivorship studies in the Yakima River, Washington (Johnson and others, 2012), and remains one of the greater uncertainties in S3 when estimating survival across life stages. By including bona fide estimates of egg survival in S3 simulations, the validity of the S3’s current daily egg survival rate could be assessed specifically for the American River. Tagging studies also could provide S3 with direct estimates of juvenile survival and movement; survival during egg incubation then could be estimated indirectly via model fitting.

California↗