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Using maintenance records from a long-term sensor monitoring network to evaluate the relationship between maintenance schedule and data quality

Sensor-based environmental monitoring networks are beginning to provide the large-scale, long-term data required to address important fundamental and applied questions in ecology. However, the data quality from deployed sensors can be difficult and costly to ensure. In this study, we use maintenance records from the 12-year history of Louisiana’s Coastwide Reference Monitoring System (CRMS) to assess the relationship between various dimensions of data quality and the frequency of field visits to the sensors. We use hierarchical Bayesian models to estimate the probability of missing data, the probability that a corrective offset of the sensor is required, and the magnitude of required offsets for water elevation and salinity data. We compared these estimates to predetermined risk thresholds to the help identify maintenance schedules that balanced the efficient use of labor resources without sacrificing data quality. We found that the relationship between data quality and increasing maintenance interval varied across metrics. Additionally, for most metrics, the maintenance interval when the metric’s credible interval and risk threshold intersected varied throughout the year and with wetland type. These results suggest that complex maintenance schedules, in which field visits vary in frequency throughout the year and with environmental context, are likely to provide the best tradeoff between labor cost and data quality. This analysis demonstrates that quantitative assessment of maintenance records can positively impact the sustainability of long-term data collection projects by helping identify new potential efficiencies in monitoring program management.

Louisiana

Detecting and inferring cause of change in an Alaska nearshore marine ecosystem

Community composition, species abundance, and species distribution are expected to change while monitoring ecosystems over time, and effective management of natural resources requires understanding mechanisms contributing to change. Marine ecosystems in particular can be difficult to monitor, in part due to large, multidimensional spatial scales and complex dynamics. However, within the temperate marine ecosystems, the nearshore food web is reasonably well described. This food web is ecologically and socially important, spatially constrained, and has been the focus of extensive experimental research that describes the underlying mechanisms important to system dynamics. Here, we describe a monitoring program initiated in 2006 that focuses on the nearshore benthic food web in the Gulf of Alaska, whose design anticipates potential causes of ecosystem change to improve rigor, resolution, and confidence in understanding the mechanisms underlying change. We established 15 long‐term monitoring sites across more than 1000 km of coastline, including 10 within two national parks and 5 within Prince William Sound, area of the 1989 Exxon Valdez oil spill. The program evaluates six ecological indicators and more than 200 species that range from primary producers to top‐level consumers, and is designed to examine both bottom‐up and top‐down dynamics. Employing a design that allows broad spatial inference and selecting species with direct food‐web linkages, we demonstrate the ability of our monitoring program to simultaneously detect change and assess potential mechanisms underlying that change. Detecting change and understanding mechanisms can help guide management and conservation policy. Specifically, we provide an example focusing on the sea otter ( Enhydra lutris ) that illustrates how (1) analytical methods are used to evaluate changes on various scales and infer potential mechanisms of change, (2) food‐web linkages can enhance the understanding of changes and their effects, and (3) data can be used to inform management.

Alaska

Lessons learned from long-term ecosystem research and monitoring in alpine and subalpine basins of the Colorado Rocky Mountains, USA

Long-term ecosystem research and monitoring was begun in the Loch Vale watershed of Rocky Mountain National Park in 1983, after extensive survey work to identify the best location. Then, as now, our scientific objectives were to understand natural biogeochemical cycles and variability, so that we could differentiate ecosystem changes from human-caused disturbances, such as atmospheric deposition of pollutants and climate change. We have learned many lessons, often through our mistakes, that are worth passing on. Clear scientific objectives, even for long-term monitoring, are essential. Standardized methods, including rigorous quality assurance procedures should be adhered to from the beginning of the program. All data, even those collected routinely for background records, should be scrutinized and summarized at least once a year. Freely share basic information such as weather, hydrologic, chemical, and descriptive records with other researchers who can build upon your efforts. Use many tools when asking complex ecological questions, in order to minimize bias toward specific results. Publish frequently; long-term studies do not imply there are no interim conclusions or interesting findings. Interpret findings frequently to policy makers and citizens; increased understanding of the environment and human-caused changes may improve natural resource management, and build support for ecological research. And finally, be persistent. Long-term ecological research can be frustrating and difficult to maintain, yet is often the best way to observe and understand ecological change on a meaningful time scale.

Colorado

Summary of information on synthetic organic compounds and trace elements in tissue of aquatic biota, Clark Fork-Pend Oreille and Spokane River basins, Montana, Idaho, and Washington, 1974-96

As part of the Northern Rockies Intermontane Basins study of the National Water-Quality Assessment Program, data collected between 1974 and 1996 were compiled to describe contaminants in tissue of riverine species. Tissue-contaminant data from 11 monitoring programs and studies representing 28 sites in the study area were summarized. Tissue-contaminant data for most streams generally were lacking. Many studies have focused on and around mining-affected areas on the Clark Fork and Coeur d'Alene Rivers and their major tributaries. DDT and PCBs and their metabolites and congeners were the synthetic organic contaminants most commonly detected in fish tissue. Fish collected from the Spokane River in Washington contained elevated concentrations of PCB arochlors, some of which exceeded guidelines for the protection of human health and predatory wildlife. Tissue samples of fish from the Flathead River watershed contained higher-than-expected concentrations of PCBs, which might have resulted from atmospheric transport. Trace element concentrations in fish and macroinvertebrates collected in and around mining areas were elevated compared with background concentrations. Some cadmium, copper, lead, and mercury concentrations in fish tissue were elevated compared with results from other studies, and some exceeded guidelines. Macroinvertebrates from the Coeur d'Alene River contained higher concentrations of cadmium, lead, and zinc than did macroinvertebrates from other river systems in mining-affected areas. A few sportfish fillet samples, most from the Spokane River in Washington, were collected to assess human health risk. Concentrations of PCBs in these fillets exceeded screening values for the protection of human health. At present, there is no coordinated, long-term fish tissue monitoring program for rivers in the study area, even though contaminants are present in fish at levels considered a threat to human health. Development of a coordinated, centralized national data base for contaminants in fish tissue is needed. The National Water-Quality Assessment Program can provide a framework for other agencies to evaluate tissue contaminants in the Northern Rockies Intermontane Basins study area. As of 1996, there are no fish consumption advisories or fishing restrictions as a result of elevated contaminants on any rivers within the study area.

Idaho, Montana, Washington

Development of a grazing monitoring program for Great Sand Dunes National Park, Colorado

National parks in the United States face the difficult task of managing natural resources within park boundaries that are influenced to a large degree by historical land uses or by forces outside of the park’s protection and mandate. Among the many challenges faced by parks is management of wildlife populations that occupy larger landscapes than individual park units but that concentrate within park lands both seasonally and opportunistically. Great Sand Dunes National Park and Preserve in south-central Colorado is currently developing an Ungulate Management Plan to address management of elk and bison populations within the park. Execution of the Ungulate Management Plan will require monitoring and assessment of habitat conditions in areas that appear sensitive to ungulate use or heavily used by elk and bison. Several sources of information on the various habitats within the park and their use and response to foraging elk and bison exist from recent and on-going research in Great Sand Dunes National Park and Preserve as well as from studies in other regions of the Intermountain West. All of this data can be used to inform the planning process. This report provides background on vegetation types that make up the primary bison and elk ranges in Great Sand Dunes National Park and Preserve and on the potential effects of ungulate grazing and browsing in these specific vegetation communities (both locally and regionally). The report also provides a review of the elements necessary to develop a long-term monitoring program for Great Sand Dunes National Park and Preserve that addresses both the responses to ungulate herbivory seen in important habitats in the park and the amount and patterns of ungulate habitat use.

Colorado

Elk monitoring in Lewis and Clark National Historical Park: 2008-2012 synthesis report

Maintaining elk (Cervus elaphus roosevelti) herds that frequent Lewis and Clark National Historical Park (NHP) is central to the park’s purpose of preserving the historic, cultural, scenic, and natural resources associated with the winter encampment of the Lewis and Clark expedition. Elk were critically important to the Lewis and Clark expedition in providing food and hides that sustained the expedition during the winter of 1805-06 and supplied them for their return east during 1806. Today, elk remain a key component of interpreting the Lewis and Clark story to over 200,000 park visitors each year at the Fort Clatsop visitor center. In 2008, the US Geological Survey (USGS) began collaborating with Lewis and Clark NHP and the NPS North Coast and Cascades Network to develop a protocol for monitoring long-term changes in the magnitude and spatial patterns of elk use within and adjacent to Lewis and Clark NHP (Griffin et al. 2011). Specific objectives of the monitoring program were to measure trends in (1) relative use of the Fort Clatsop unit by elk during winter; (2) the proportion of areas where elk sign is present in the Fort Clatsop unit in winter; and (3) the frequency of elk sightings from roads in and around the Fort Clatsop unit. This report synthesizes the results of the first four years of monitoring elk distribution and use in Lewis and Clark NHP from 2008-2012. We also present data from FY2012 (Appendix 1), in lieu of an annual report for that year. We used fecal pellet group surveys as the cornerstone for monitoring trends in both relative use of the Fort Clatsop Unit by elk and the proportion of areas where elk sign was present at the end of winter. We estimated pellet group density based on data collected from a network of fecal pellet plots distributed systematically throughout the unit. We developed a double observer sampling scheme that enabled us to estimate detection biases and improve the accuracy of pellet group density estimates. We computed the estimated detection probability for any pellet group observed; this probability was a function of the pellet group size and stage of decay, as well as lighting and vegetation conditions, and the number of observers (one or two) searching for pellets in that subplot. We then used these estimated detection probabilities to adjust the raw counts of the detected pellet groups to account for groups that likely went undetected under similar pellet and environmental conditions (each observed pellet group was weighted by the inverse of its estimated detection probability). We also used results from the late winter fecal pellet surveys to quantify the proportion of areas where elk pellets occurred (PAO), which was based on the presence of fecal pellet groups and estimation of detection biases (i.e., accounting for pellet groups that likely went undetected by both observers). In this synthesis, we report temporal trends in both pellet group density and PAO from 2008-2012, based on weighted linear regression analyses as well as spatial variation of pellet group densities over time. We completed late winter fecal pellet surveys at 61-66 plots annually, depending on yearly variation in access. We cleared fecal pellets at survey points in late October / early November each year and returned in late February / early March to count pellet groups left by elk over the winter. The estimated probability that a pellet group was detected by any one observer during late winter was affected most by the pellet group size and was less affected by decay class and lighting conditions. Per-observer detection probabilities ranged from as low as ~10-15% for single pellets to ~85-90% for pellet groups with 50 pellets. Average pellet group density in the Fort Clatsop unit ranged annually from 0.58 (+/- 1.43 standard error [SE]) to 0.93 (+/- 2.25 SE) pellet groups per 3-m radius subplot. Pellet group density declined over time, at approximately 8.8% per year (+/- 2.5% SE), but that slope was not statistically distinguishable from zero (2- tailed P=0.16). Following correction for detection biases, the proportion of surveyed points used by elk (i.e., PAO) ranged from 0.44 (+/- 0.07 SE) to 0.53 (+/- 0.07 SE) during the 4 winters. The estimated proportion of areas where elk pellets occurred (PAO) declined at a rate of 2.6% per year (+/- 1.2% per year SE), but that trend also was not statistically distinguishable from zero (2- tailed P=0.17). Statistical significance of a measure’s trend depends on both the magnitude (i.e., slope) of the observed trend and the number of years the trend continues in the same increasing or decreasing direction. Through simulation modeling we determined how many additional years of surveys would be required to reveal a statistically significant trend, based on the same trends in pellet group density and PAO, and associated variation, observed from 2009-2012. Assuming the same trends persist in the future, simulations indicated that there is a 70% probability that a statistically significant trend would be detected after two more years of conducting pellet group surveys. Relative use by elk during winter, as indexed by elk pellet group density, was generally greatest in the southeast region of the Fort Clatsop unit in or near the large freshwater marsh at the mouth of Colewort Creek and adjacent upland areas. Pellet group density was also higher than average in the north-central forested area, not far from a privately-owned pasture north of the park boundary. This spatial pattern in pellet group densities across the Fort Clatsop unit was consistent across all four years, although specific pellet group densities varied from year to year. Pellet group density declined significantly over time at two points in the southeast of the Fort Clatsop unit, even though pellet group density at those points remained higher than the unit average. Pellet group density increased significantly over time at one point in the north-central region, and at one point in the south-central region of the unit, indicating a slight shift in the distribution of elk use within the Fort Clatsop Unit over the four years. As an index of visitors’ opportunities to see elk in and around the Fort Clatsop Unit, we conducted replicated roadside elk surveys 3-5 times monthly during February, April, June, August, October and December 2008-2012. During each morning of survey, we searched for elk along four routes that totaled 32 km. We examined bimonthly trends in the numbers of elk groups seen, the total number of elk seen, and the observed composition ratios for those six months of the year. The average number of elk groups seen per survey ranged from 0.75 (+/- 0.32 SE) during February to a peak of 1.95 (+/- 0.36 SE) during June. Despite this seasonal variation in numbers of elk groups seen, the average total number of elk seen per morning was less variable. The average ratios of antlered elk to antlerless adult elk (i.e., bulls:cows) and calves to antlerless adult elk (i.e. calves:cows) varied seasonally, with the highest of both average ratios observed in August. We detected no significant trends in the average number of elk groups and total numbers of elk seen per survey from 2008-2012. Similarly, ratios of calves and antlered elk per antlerless elk did not differ over time. Elk groups were frequently seen from January to August in the southeast region of the Fort Clatsop unit, in the vicinity of Colewort Creek. Outside of NPS lands, we observed elk most frequently in open areas near the Astoria regional airport, in the pastures and forests immediately north of the Fort Clatsop unit and, prior to the construction of a residential development, in a pasture northwest of the Fort Clatsop unit. Elk monitoring at Lewis and Clark NHP is still in its initial years and additional monitoring will be required to verify trends that appear to be emerging. For example, the initial monitoring suggested incipient declining trends in both pellet group density and proportion of plots with pellets present, as well as, potentially, a small shift in elk distribution away from a new trail that was recently constructed in the southeast portion of the Fort Clatsop unit. Continued monitoring will aid in determining whether this local change in distribution persists (or, alternatively, resulted from short-term random variation), and whether there will be any positive or negative effect in the northern portion of the unit where a new trail has been constructed. High variability in road counts prevented our ability to find any clear trend in numbers or composition of elk observed in and near Fort Clatsop, but changes in the patterns of observations of elk from roadways suggest that residential development outside the park has reduced the available habitat for elk in some of the areas surveyed, and may have affected spatial use patterns of elk adjacent to some areas of the park. In addition to monitoring future effects of land use changes outside the park, continued monitoring may also prove useful for assessing elk responses to natural succession in forests disturbed by windthrow in December 2007 and to NPS vegetation management activities such as variable density thinning in the forest, trail development, and restoration at Otter Point tidal area and Colewort Creek Slough.

Oregon;Washington

Collection of short papers on Beaver Creek watershed studies in West Tennessee, 1989-94

In 1989, the U.S. Geological Survey began a scientific investigation to evaluate the effect of agricultural activities on water quality and the effectiveness of agricultural best management practices in the Beaver Creek watershed, West Tennessee. The project is being conducted jointly with other Federal, State, county agencies, the farming community, and academic institutions, in support of the U.S. Department of Agriculture's Hydrologic Unit Area program. The Beaver Creek project has evolved into a long-term watershed assessment and monitoring program. In 1991, a grant was received to develop and evaluate sampling strategies for higher order streams. During the summer of 1992, a reconnaissance of water-quality conditions for the shallow aquifers in Shelby, Tipton, Fayette, and Haywood Counties was conducted and included 89 domestic wells in the Beaver Creek watershed. Results from this effort lead to the development of a 1-year program to evaluate cause- and-effect relations that can explain the observed water-quality conditions for the shallow aquifers in the watershed. In 1992 the USGS, in cooperation with the Soil Conservation Service and the Shelby County Soil Conservation District, began an evaluation of in-stream processes and in-stream resource-management systems. In 1993, a biomonitoring program was established in the watershed. This collection of eight articles and abstracts was originally published in the American Water Resources Association National Symposium on Water Quality Proceedings for the national conference held in Chicago in 1994 and describes what has been learned in the study to date.

Tennessee

Wyoming Landscape Conservation Initiative Science Workshop Proceedings, May 15-17, 2007

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) hosted a Wyoming Landscape Conservation Initiative (WLCI) Science Workshop at the University of Wyoming on May 15, 16, and 17, 2007. The goal of the workshop was to gather information from stakeholders about research needs and existing data resources to help develop the USGS WLCI science plan. The workshop focused on six research and management needs identified by WLCI partners prior to the workshop: *evaluate the cumulative effects of development activities; *identify key drivers of change; *identify condition and distribution of key wildlife species, habitat, and species habitat requirements; *evaluate wildlife and livestock responses to development; *develop an integrated inventory and monitoring strategy; and *develop a data clearinghouse and an information-management framework. These topics correlated to six plenary panels and discussions and six breakout sessions. Several collective needs were identified: *create a long-term, accessible information database; *identify key habitats, indicator species; *collect and research missing critical baseline data; *begin on-the-ground projects as soon as possible; and *implement a monitoring program to assist with adaptive management techniques. Several concerns were expressed repeatedly: *secure adequate and long-term funding; *meeting the WLCI workload with agencies that are already understaffed; *assess cumulative effects as an analysis approach; *perform offsite mitigation in a way that is valuable and effective; *focus all research on providing practical applications; and *involve the public in WLCI proceedings.

Scientific Investigations Report

Upper Illinois River basin

During the past 25 years, industry and government made large financial investments that resulted in better water quality across the Nation; however, many water-quality concerns remain. Following a 1986 pilot project, the U.S. Geological Survey began implementation of the National Water-Quality Assessment (NAWQA) Program in 1991. This program differs from other national water-quality assessment studies in that the NAWQA integrates monitoring of surface- and ground-water quality with the study of aquatic ecosystems. The goals of the NAWQA Program are to (1) describe current water-quality conditions for a large part of the Nation's freshwater streams and aquifers (water-bearing sediments and rocks), (2) describe how water quality is changing over time, and (3) improve our understanding of the primary natural and human factors affecting water quality. The Upper Illinois River Basin National Water- Quality Assessment (NAWQA) study will increase the scientific understanding of surface- and ground-water quality and the factors that affect water quality in the basin. The study also will provide information needed by water-resource managers to implement effective water-quality management actions and evaluate long-term changes in water quality.

Illinois, Indiana, Wisconsin

Normal streamflows and water levels continue—Summary of hydrologic conditions in Georgia, 2014

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) South Atlantic Water Science Center (SAWSC) Georgia office, in cooperation with local, State, and other Federal agencies, maintains a long-term hydrologic monitoring network of more than 350 real-time, continuous-record, streamflow-gaging stations (streamgages). The network includes 14 real-time lake-level monitoring stations, 72 real-time surface-water-quality monitors, and several water-quality sampling programs. Additionally, the SAWSC Georgia office operates more than 204 groundwater monitoring wells, 39 of which are real-time. The wide-ranging coverage of streamflow, reservoir, and groundwater monitoring sites allows for a comprehensive view of hydrologic conditions across the State. One of the many benefits this monitoring network provides is a spatially distributed overview of the hydrologic conditions of creeks, rivers, reservoirs, and aquifers in Georgia. Streamflow and groundwater data are verified throughout the year by USGS hydrographers and made available to water-resource managers, recreationists, and Federal, State, and local agencies. Hydrologic conditions are determined by comparing the statistical analyses of data collected during the current water year to historical data. Changing hydrologic conditions underscore the need for accurate, timely data to allow informed decisions about the management and conservation of Georgia’s water resources for agricultural, recreational, ecological, and water-supply needs and in protecting life and property.

Georgia

Management and protection protocols for nesting sea turtles on Cape Hatteras National Seashore, North Carolina

Executive Summary 1. The southeast U.S. population of the loggerhead turtle (Caretta caretta) has increased since the species was listed as federally threatened in 1978. Since standardized monitoring began in North Carolina in 1995, the number of nests at Cape Hatteras National Seashore (CAHA) fluctuated from year to year, and was lowest in 1996 and 1997 (39 nests) and highest in 2003 (101 nests). Green turtles (Chelonia mydas) and leatherback turtles (Dermochelys coriacea) have nested in small numbers at CAHA, sporadically over time. 2. Hatching success of sea turtle nests typically approaches 80%. At CAHA hatching success from 1999-2003 was low when hurricanes hit during the nesting season (30%-38%), and ranged from 52%-70% otherwise. Hatching success at CAHA is usually correlated with hatching success in the surrounding subpopulation (north Florida to North Carolina). 3. Inclement weather, predation, and human recreation can negatively impact nesting rate and hatching success. 4. Currently there is little protection from recreation at CAHA for nesting females and nests that have not been found by monitors. We propose three management options to provide such protection, and to increase protection for known nests and hatchlings. We propose an adaptive management framework for assessing the effectiveness of these management options in improving sea turtle nesting rate and nest and hatchling survival. 5. We recommend continued efforts to trap and remove mammalian predators from all sea turtle habitat. We further recommend intensive monitoring and surveillance of protected areas to determine the extent and timing of threats to nests and broods, including nest overwash, predation, and disturbance or vandalism by humans. 6. Continue to relocate nests and assist stranded turtles according to North Carolina Wildlife Resources Commission guidelines. 7. Artificial light sources pose a serious threat to sea turtles in some parts of CAHA, which must be remedied immediately. We recommend that CAHA enact turtle-friendly lighting regulations and work with the communities within its borders to reduce light pollution and to eliminate artificial light sources that are directly visible from sea turtle nesting areas. 8. We recommend increased education and outreach to CAHA visitors, including requiring participation in an educational program before being granted nighttime beach access. The long-term success of sea turtle recovery will depend on public cooperation and positive public attitudes toward sea turtles and turtle management actions.

Book

Atmospheric deposition and critical loads for nitrogen and metals in Arctic Alaska: Review and current status

To protect important resources under their bureau’s purview, the United States National Park Service’s (NPS) Arctic Network (ARCN) has developed a series of “vital signs” that are to be periodically monitored. One of these vital signs focuses on wet and dry deposition of atmospheric chemicals and further, the establishment of critical load (CL) values (thresholds for ecological effects based on cumulative depositional loadings) for nitrogen (N), sulfur, and metals. As part of the ARCN terrestrial monitoring programs, samples of the feather moss Hylocomium splendens are being col- lected and analyzed as a cost-effective means to monitor atmospheric pollutant deposition in this region. Ultimately, moss data combined with refined CL values might be used to help guide future regulation of atmospheric contaminant sources potentially impacting Arctic Alaska. But first, additional long-term studies are needed to determine patterns of contaminant deposition as measured by moss biomonitors and to quantify ecosystem responses at particular loadings/ ranges of contaminants within Arctic Alaska. Herein we briefly summarize 1) current regulatory guidance related to CL values 2) derivation of CL models for N and metals, 3) use of mosses as biomonitors of atmospheric deposition and loadings, 4) preliminary analysis of vulnerabilities and risks associated with CL estimates for N, 5) preliminary analysis of existing data for characterization of CL values for N for interior Alaska and 6) implications for managers and future research needs.

Alaska

Microbiological monitoring for the U.S. Geological Survey National Water-Quality Assessment Program

Data to characterize the microbiological quality of the Nation's fresh, marine, and estuarine waters are usually collected for local purposes, most often to judge compliance with standards for protection of public health in swimmable or drinkable waters. Methods and procedures vary with the objectives and practices of the parties collecting data and are continuously being developed or modified. Therefore, it is difficult to provide a nationally consistent picture of the microbial quality of the Nation's waters. Study objectives and guidelines for a national microbiological monitoring program are outlined in this report, using the framework of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) National Water-Quality Assessment (NAWQA) program. A national program is designed to provide long-term data on the presence of microbiological pathogens and indicators in ground water and surface water to support effective water policy and management. Three major groups of waterborne pathogens affect the public health acceptability of waters in the United States—bacteria, protozoa, and viruses. Microbiological monitoring in NAWQA would be designed to assess the occurrence, distribution, and trends of pathogenic organisms and indicators in surface waters and ground waters; relate the patterns discerned to factors that help explain them; and improve our understanding of the processes that control microbiological water quality.

Water-Resources Investigations Report

City of Flagstaff Project: Ground Water Resource Evaluation, Remote Sensing Component

Many regions, cities, and towns in the Western United States need new or expanded water resources because of both population growth and increased development. Any tools or data that can help in the evaluation of an area's potential water resources must be considered for this increasingly critical need. Remotely sensed satellite images and subsequent digital image processing have been under-utilized in ground water resource evaluation and exploration. Satellite images can be helpful in detecting and mapping an area's regional structural patterns, including major fracture and fault systems, two important geologic settings for an area's surface to ground water relations. Within the United States Geological Survey's (USGS) Flagstaff Field Center, expertise and capabilities in remote sensing and digital image processing have been developed over the past 25 years through various programs. For the City of Flagstaff project, this expertise and these capabilities were combined with traditional geologic field mapping to help evaluate ground water resources in the Flagstaff area. Various enhancement and manipulation procedures were applied to the digital satellite images; the results, in both digital and hardcopy format, were used for field mapping and analyzing the regional structure. Relative to surface sampling, remotely sensed satellite and airborne images have improved spatial coverage that can help study, map, and monitor the earth surface at local and/or regional scales. Advantages offered by remotely sensed satellite image data include: 1. a synoptic/regional view compared to both aerial photographs and ground sampling, 2. cost effectiveness, 3. high spatial resolution and coverage compared to ground sampling, and 4. relatively high temporal coverage on a long term basis. Remotely sensed images contain both spectral and spatial information. The spectral information provides various properties and characteristics about the surface cover at a given location or pixel (that is, vegetation and/or soil type). The spatial information gives the distribution, variation, and topographic relief of the cover types from pixel to pixel. Therefore, the main characteristics that determine a pixel's brightness/reflectance and, consequently, the digital number (DN) assigned to the pixel, are the physical properties of the surface and near surface, the cover type, and the topographic slope. In this application, the ability to detect and map lineaments, especially those related to fractures and faults, is critical. Therefore, the extraction of spatial information from the digital images was of prime interest in this project. The spatial information varies among the different spectral bands available; in particular, a near infrared spectral band is better than a visible band when extracting spatial information in highly vegetated areas. In this study, both visible and near infrared bands were analyzed and used to extract the desired spatial information from the images. The wide swath coverage of remotely sensed satellite digital images makes them ideal for regional analysis and mapping. Since locating and mapping highly fractured and faulted areas is a major requirement for ground water resource evaluation and exploration this aspect of satellite images was considered critical; it allowed us to stand back (actually up about 440 miles), look at, and map the regional structural setting of the area. The main focus of the remote sensing and digital image processing component of this project was to use both remotely sensed digital satellite images and a Digital Elevation Model (DEM) to extract spatial information related to the structural and topographic patterns in the area. The data types used were digital satellite images collected by the United States' Landsat Thematic Mapper (TM) and French Systeme Probatoire d'Observation de laTerre (SPOT) imaging systems, along with a DEM of the Flagstaff region. The USGS Mini Image Processing Sy

Open-File Report

Fort Collins Science Center Ecosystem Dynamics branch--interdisciplinary research for addressing complex natural resource issues across landscapes and time

The Ecosystem Dynamics Branch of the Fort Collins Science Center offers an interdisciplinary team of talented and creative scientists with expertise in biology, botany, ecology, geology, biogeochemistry, physical sciences, geographic information systems, and remote-sensing, for tackling complex questions about natural resources. As demand for natural resources increases, the issues facing natural resource managers, planners, policy makers, industry, and private landowners are increasing in spatial and temporal scope, often involving entire regions, multiple jurisdictions, and long timeframes. Needs for addressing these issues include (1) a better understanding of biotic and abiotic ecosystem components and their complex interactions; (2) the ability to easily monitor, assess, and visualize the spatially complex movements of animals, plants, water, and elements across highly variable landscapes; and (3) the techniques for accurately predicting both immediate and long-term responses of system components to natural and human-caused change. The overall objectives of our research are to provide the knowledge, tools, and techniques needed by the U.S. Department of the Interior, state agencies, and other stakeholders in their endeavors to meet the demand for natural resources while conserving biodiversity and ecosystem services. Ecosystem Dynamics scientists use field and laboratory research, data assimilation, and ecological modeling to understand ecosystem patterns, trends, and mechanistic processes. This information is used to predict the outcomes of changes imposed on species, habitats, landscapes, and climate across spatiotemporal scales. The products we develop include conceptual models to illustrate system structure and processes; regional baseline and integrated assessments; predictive spatial and mathematical models; literature syntheses; and frameworks or protocols for improved ecosystem monitoring, adaptive management, and program evaluation. The descriptions in this fact sheet provide snapshots of our three research emphases, followed by descriptions of select current projects.

Fact Sheet

Methods for Monitoring Fish Communities of Buffalo National River and Ozark National Scenic Riverways in the Ozark Plateaus of Arkansas and Missouri: Version 1.0

Buffalo National River located in north-central Arkansas, and Ozark National Scenic Riverways, located in southeastern Missouri, are the two largest units of the National Park Service in the Ozark Plateaus physiographic province. The purpose of this report is to provide a protocol that will be used by the National Park Service to sample fish communities and collect related water-quality, habitat, and stream discharge data of Buffalo National River and Ozark National Scenic Riverways to meet inventory and long-term monitoring objectives. The protocol includes (1) a protocol narrative, (2) several standard operating procedures, and (3) supplemental information helpful for implementation of the protocol. The protocol narrative provides background information about the protocol such as the rationale of why a particular resource or resource issue was selected for monitoring, information concerning the resource or resource issue of interest, a description of how monitoring results will inform management decisions, and a discussion of the linkages between this and other monitoring projects. The standard operating procedures cover preparation, training, reach selection, water-quality sampling, fish community sampling, physical habitat collection, measuring stream discharge, equipment maintenance and storage, data management and analysis, reporting, and protocol revision procedures. Much of the information in the standard operating procedures was gathered from existing protocols of the U.S. Geological Survey National Water Quality Assessment program or other sources. Supplemental information that would be helpful for implementing the protocol is included. This information includes information on fish species known or suspected to occur in the parks, sample sites, sample design, fish species traits, index of biotic integrity metrics, sampling equipment, and field forms.

Open-File Report

Population and habitat analyses for greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) in the bi-state distinct population segment—2018 update

Executive Summary The Bi-State Distinct Population Segment (Bi-State DPS) of greater sage-grouse ( Centrocercus urophasianus , hereinafter “sage-grouse”) represents a genetically distinct and geographically isolated population that straddles the border between Nevada and California. The primary threat to these sage-grouse populations is the expansion of single-leaf pinyon ( Pinus monophylla ) and Utah juniper ( Juniperus osteosperma ) into sagebrush ecosystems, which fragments and reduces population connectivity and survival. Other important threats include low water availability during brood-rearing, particularly during drought, and increased predation by common ravens ( Corvus corax ), a generalist predator often associated with anthropogenic resource subsidies. Although the Bi-State DPS occurs at high elevations relative to sage-grouse range-wide, changes in historical wildfire cycles and the conversion of native shrubs to invasive annual grasslands still threaten these populations. The Bi-State DPS has undergone multiple federal status assessments and associated litigation. For example, in October of 2013, the Bi-State DPS was proposed for listing as threatened under the Endangered Species Act of 1973 by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS), then withdrawn in April 2015. The withdrawal decision was challenged, and in May 2018, a Federal district court ordered the withdrawal decision to be vacated, and USFWS was required to re-open the October 2013 listing evaluation. In response, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), with State and Federal collaborators, embarked on a multipronged analysis to provide current and best available science regarding population status of sage-grouse within the Bi-State DPS. Using data from a long-term monitoring program, we carried out four analytical study objectives, and here, we provide preliminary results of these analyses. First, we used integrated population modeling (IPM) to predict annual population abundance and annual finite rate of population change for the Bi-State DPS, as a whole, and for each subpopulation between 1995 and 2018. Because sage-grouse exhibit population cycles (periodic increases and decreases in abundance across approximately 6- to 10-year wavelengths), we estimated trends across three nested temporal scales that represent one (11 years), two (18 years), and three (24 years) complete population cycles. These estimates of relatively long-term averaged population change account for temporal (that is, interannual) variation. Our model predicted population abundance for the Bi-State DPS during 2018 at 3,305 individuals (2,247–4,683), with the majority occupying Bodie Hills and Long Valley. The model also predicted cyclic dynamics in abundance through time with evidence of 24-year population growth and slight trends of decline over the past 18 years. Specifically, across the Bi-State DPS as a whole, we estimated annual average at 0.99, 0.99, and 1.02 over the one, two, and three population cycles, which equated to a 10.5 percent, 16.6 percent decrease, and 60.0 percent increase in abundance over the 11-, 18-, and 24-year cycles. Estimated abundance in 2018 had not reached numbers lower than those predicted during 1995. However, we found spatial variation in population trends across the three cycles. Bodie Hills subpopulation comprised the greatest (1,521) and exhibited average annual greater than 1.0 across all periods resulting in average annual increases of 7 percent. This relatively large subpopulation has grown 5 times larger than what was predicted in 1995 while experiencing cyclical dynamics within that period. Conversely, other smaller subpopulations within the Bi-State DPS exhibited average annual equal to or less than 1.0 resulting in estimated 10-year risks of extirpation ranging from 2.0 to 76.1 percent. In general, evidence of decline among smaller subpopulations was greatest for the most recent period (2008–18) compared to a period that encompassed three full population cycles (24-year). This difference coincides with an intense period of drought that began in 2012. For comparative purposes as part of this first objective, we conducted a similar analysis for populations of sage-grouse within Nevada and California but outside the Bi-State DPS. We developed a region-wide and distance-weighted IPM using lek count from Nevada Department of Wildlife (NDOW) and California Department of Fish and Wildlife (CDFW) databases and with telemetry data collected by USGS across 12 sage-grouse subpopulations. Our models predicted similar patterns in population cycling outside the Bi-State DPS but with much stronger evidence of long-term declines across 24 years. Specifically, median averaged across each year of the 11-, 18-, and 24-year periods resulted in average annual values of 0.94, 0.97, and 0.99, respectively. These values equate to 41.0 percent, 38.5 percent, and 21.3 percent declines over the corresponding periods. Second, we used lek count data in a state-space modeling framework to compare trends in population abundance across different spatial scales (that is, leks versus Bi-State DPS). This hierarchical framework allowed us to disentangle declines associated with climate conditions as opposed to other local level factors that might signal the need for management intervention. Specifically, we identified 7 leks that were both declining and recently decoupled from larger spatial scale trends, typically governed by climatic conditions (referred to as soft or hard signals). The goal of this analysis was to provide an early warning system that might have implications for conservation actions at local scales. Third, we developed phenological (spring, summer–fall, and winter) and reproductive life stage (nesting, early brood-rearing, and late-brood rearing) based resource selection functions using various environmental covariates. We report rankings of variable importance for each season and life stage, developed maps of habitat selection indices (HSI), binned categories representing low, moderate, and high classes of quality (where any category greater than or equal to low indicated selected habitat) for each phenological season and life stage, and produced composite maps by selected phenological and reproductive stage to estimate annual habitat. Fourth, we used for each lek within the Bi-State DPS to carry out a spatial analysis that quantified substantial changes in the distribution of occupied habitat across long- (24-year) and short- (11-year) term periods. Owing to differences among available datasets, the long-term analysis primarily reflected spatial shifts among subpopulations comprising the majority of the Bi-State DPS (that is, Bodie Hills and Long Valley) while the short-term analysis also quantified changes among subpopulations along the periphery. Over long and short-term periods, the overall distribution of occupied habitat (as measured by 99 percent utilization distributions intersecting any quantified habitat) was reduced by 20,573 ha and 55,492 ha, respectively. Occupied core areas (as measured by 50 percent utilization distributions intersecting any quantified habitat) over long-term periods were solely located in Bodie Hills and Long Valley. Although nearly all subpopulations experienced contractions in occupied overall and core distribution, Bodie Hills experienced spatial expansion that occurred with concomitant spatial contraction at Long Valley over both periods. Subpopulations at the northern (Pine Nuts), central (Sagehen) and southern (White-Mountains) extents of the Bi-State DPS also experienced spatial contraction over the short-term period. These findings, coupled with those of population trends, indicate long-term patterns in redistribution of sage-grouse from Long Valley and peripheral subpopulations to Bodie Hills. That is, sage-grouse subpopulations at the periphery are declining while the largest population at the core is increasing, which could have meaningful impacts on overall metapopulation persistence. We provide evidence for loss of occupied habitat (reduced distribution) given local extirpation of subpopulations. Fifth, we calculated percentages of selected phenological, life stage, and annual habitat that each subpopulation contributed to the Bi-State DPS. We then intersected these maps with a composite estimate of occupied habitat from the fourth objective and calculated percentages of selected habitat likely occupied by sage-grouse that each subpopulation contributed to the Bi-State DPS. These values provide evidence for loss of occupied habitat and subsequent reductions in spatial distribution given reductions in abundance and, in some cases, extirpation of leks within subpopulations. Lastly, we carried out an initial in-depth analysis of selection for irrigated pastures and wet meadows during the brood-rearing stage for the Long Valley subpopulation. We chose this subpopulation because it represents a population core, representing 26.5 percent of total sage-grouse within the Bi-State DPS, and has exhibited long-term declines in abundance and distribution. This subpopulation is highly sensitive to precipitation and other factors that influence water availability. Models predicted higher use of the interior portions of irrigated pastures and wet meadows during late brood-rearing period, which represented a potentially risky use of habitat that was exacerbated during periods of low moisture (for example, drought, reduced water delivery, or both). Sage-grouse typically used edges of riparian areas and pastures, largely because the interior of these mesic areas consisted of considerably less overhead concealment cover (for example, shrubs) that likely resulted in a higher risk of mortality. We found that a lack of water delivery to pastures in the form of overwinter precipitation or diversion ditches increased the movements of sage-grouse to the interior of pastures. Although further investigation of water delivery impacts on chick survival are warrented, our initial findings regarding resource selection may explain recent declines in population growth at Long Valley.

California, Nevada

Hydrology, aquatic macrophytes, and water quality of Black Earth Creek and its tributaries, Dane County, Wisconsin, 1985-86

An intensive data-collection program for the Black Earth Creek basin in southern Wisconsin was conducted from October 1984 through September 1986 to assess the hydrology, aquatic macrophytes, and water quality in Black Earth Creek by the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources. Three sites on two cold-water trout streams Black Earth Creek at Cross Plains, Black Earth Creek near Cross Plains, and Garfoot Creek near Cross Plains were continuously monitored for streamflow and water-quality data. One site in a warm-water stream, Brewery Creek at Cross Plains, also was monitored. Aquatic macrophyte biomass was determined for three sites on Black Earth Creek. Streamflow at Black Earth Creek at Black Earth during the 1985 and 1986 water years (WY) were 44 and 60 percent greater than the long-term mean discharge of 33.3 ft3/s (cubic feet per second) for the period 1955-86. Water year 1986 had the highest annual mean discharge, 53.4 ft3/s, since records began in 1954 at the most downstream site Black Earth Creek at Black Earth. Although there have been considerable fluctuations in streamflow, it has tended to increase since WY 1965 as a result of above-average precipitation and consequent rising ground-water levels. Trout population densities may be related to annual mean streamflow. A regression analysis of adult trout populations and the 3-year moving annual mean discharge had a correlation coefficient of 0.75 with a standard error of 83 percent. Aquatic macrophyte biomass in Black Earth Creek was substantially less in 1986 than in 1985 as a result of substrate scouring from the flood of July 25, 1985. The frequency of occurrence of species during 1985 and 1986 was similar to that of 1981, and seasonal succession of species also was similar; Potamogeton crispus dominated early in the year and senesced in July. P. crispus and P. pectinatus, both indicative of eutrophic conditions, dominated upstream and downstream, respectively; neither species is native to the area. In 1985, the greatest biomass was found upstream from Cross Plains. This large biomass caused diurnal fluctuations in dissolved-oxygen concentration of 5 to 6 mg/L (milligrams per liter) as a result of photosynthesis and respiration. Many of the dissolved-oxygen minimums, recorded at night, were less than the State 6.0-mg/L water-quality standard for trout waters. Discharge from point sources may adversely affect Black Earth Creek's water quality. Warm water discharged to Black Earth Creek from a gravel pit operation upstream from Cross Plains increased water temperatures 2 to 4 degrees Celsius and decreased the dissolved oxygen about 1 mg/L at a site 1.8 miles downstream. Runoff from a settling pond from a landfill operation in the headwaters of the Black Earth Creek basin drains through a wetland that drains to Black Earth Creek and contained as much as 60 mg/L ammonia nitrogen, 980 mg/L biochemical oxygen demand, and 1,300 mg/L chemical oxygen demand, which may be detrimental to trout. Garfoot Creek had the highest suspended-sediment and phosphorus yields per unit area of the three upstream basins during low to moderate runoff. Detention ponds in the Brewery Creek basin appear to be less effective in controlling suspended-sediment and phosphorus loads during periods of high runoff than during moderate runoff. Brewery Creek had the highest concentrations of suspended sediment and total phosphorus during low and high flows. The water quality at the Black Earth Creek gaging station at Black Earth was affected by Garfoot Creek and unnamed tributaries. As a result, yields of suspended sediment, phosphorus, and nitrogen increased between Cross Plains and Black Earth. High streamflows during WY 1985 resulted in suspendedsediment yields at Black Earth Creek at Black Earth that were 29 percent greater than the 12-year (1955-65, 85-86) mean; yields ranged from 69.5 ton/mi2 (tons per square mile) in Black Earth Creek at Cross Plains to 116 ton/mi2 in the Brewery Creek basin. Phosphorus yields ranged from 312 lb/mi2 (pounds per square mile) in Black Earth Creek at Cross Plains to 628 lb/mi2 in the Brewery Creek basin. Total nitrogen yields ranged from 3,280 lb/mi2 in the Brewery Creek basin to 6,920 lb/mi2 in the Garfoot Creek basin. An increase in oxygen demand, caused by agricultural runoff, has resulted in reduced dissolved-oxygen content of the water in both Black Earth and Garfoot Creeks. The most substantial reduction occurred at Black Earth Creek at Cross Plains on July 25, 1985, as a result of the largest storm runoff event during the study. A rainfall of 5.54 inches caused streamflow discharges to increase from 9 to 122 ft3/s and dissolved-oxygen concentrations to decline to 3.0 mg/L; the dissolved-oxygen concentration was less than 6.0 mg/L for 30 hours.

Wisconsin