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Local water use and climate variability drive water stress and alter ecological flows over the conterminous United States

Consistent, large-scale estimates of water availability are needed to identify and avoid potential conflicts among human and ecosystem uses of water. We present an assessment of water limitation, defined as the monthly balance (difference) between water supply ( ws ) and human consumptive water use ( wc ), for the conterminous United States (CONUS) during water years 2010–2020. We estimate that 26.7 million Americans, 8% of CONUS population, live in areas with chronic high or severe water limitation. Although ws greatly exceeds wc at the CONUS scale, water is limited locally or regionally due to spatial and temporal patterns in climate and wc . Our water limitation metric, the monthly supply and use index (SUI), peaked in 2012 during a widespread drought when 38% of the CONUS land area experienced elevated water stress. The central and Southwestern U.S. experienced the highest SUI due to the combination of low ws and high wc , especially for irrigation. Spatial overlays of SUI and fish habitat ranges, including those of conservation concern, revealed that several species had notable proportions of their habitat exposed to high or severe water limitation during spawning season over the modeled time period, especially the Arkansas River shiner. ws was calculated from two CONUS, physically-based, hydrologic models while wc was calculated from three CONUS models of water use for crop irrigation, thermoelectric power generation, and public supply. The ws and wc values were routed through a stream network and compared to calculate water limitation and SUI for human populations and fish species at the scale of 12-digit hydrologic unit codes. Evaluation of water availability at higher spatial and temporal resolution promotes more comprehensive analyses of the drivers of water availability and can be combined with complementary studies of water quality and water limiting thresholds to better understand the limitations on water availability.

conterminous United States

Local water use and climate drive water stress over the conterminous United States with substantial impacts to fish species of conservation concern

There is a growing need for consistent, large-scale estimates of water availability to identify and avoid potential conflicts among human and ecosystem uses of water. We present an assessment of water limitation, defined as the monthly balance (difference) between water supply ( ws ) and human consumptive water use ( wc ), for the conterminous United States (CONUS) during water years 2010–2020. We estimate that 26.7 million Americans, 8% of CONUS population, live in areas with chronic high or severe water limitation. Although ws greatly exceeds wc at the CONUS scale, water is limited locally or regionally due to spatial and temporal patterns in climate and wc . Our water limitation metric, the monthly supply and use index (SUI), peaked in 2012 during a widespread drought when 38% of the CONUS land area experienced elevated water stress. The central and southwestern U.S. experienced the highest SUI due to the combination of low ws and high wc , especially for crop irrigation. Spatial overlays of SUI and habitat ranges for fish species, including those of conservation concern, revealed that several species had notable proportions of their habitat exposed to high or severe water limitation during spawning season over the modeled time period, especially the Arkansas River shiner. Water supply ( ws ) was calculated from two CONUS, physically based, hydrologic models while wc was calculated from three CONUS models of water use for crop irrigation, thermoelectric power generation, and public supply. The ws and wc values were routed through a stream network and used to calculate water limitation for human populations and fish species at the scale of 12-digit hydrologic unit codes (HUC12s, 50-100 km 2 catchments) and then analyzed using SUI. Evaluation of water availability at higher spatial and temporal resolution promotes more comprehensive analyses of the drivers of water availability and can be combined with complementary studies of water quality and water limiting thresholds to better understand the limitations on water availability.

conterminous United States

GIS-based identification of areas that have resource potential for sediment-hosted Pb-Zn deposits in Alaska

A state-wide Geographic Information System analysis was conducted to assess prospectivity for lead (Pb) and zinc (Zn) in sediment-hosted deposits in Alaska. The datasets that were utilized include publicly available geospatial datasets of lithologic, geochemical, and mineral occurrence data. Key characteristics of Pb-Zn deposits were identified in available datasets and scored with respect to relative importance. To evaluate resource potential, drainage basins of the smallest size were chosen, each of which covers approximately 100 square kilometers (km 2 ). Drainage basins are the most logical and efficient unit for evaluation because the most regionally robust dataset comes from stream sediment geochemistry. Sediment-hosted Pb-Zn deposits in Alaska include those contained in carbonate rocks (similar to Mississippi Valley Type or MVT deposits) and those contained in clastic-dominated (CD) sequences (CD Pb-Zn), historically referred to as SEDEX (sedimentary exhalative). The latter include the deposits currently being mined in the Red Dog district in the western Brooks Range. Host rocks for the two subtypes are distinct: carbonate versus fine-grained clastic rocks for CD Pb-Zn deposits. However, there are exceptions: some CD Pb-Zn deposits are hosted in carbonate layers within a thick clastic-dominated rock sequence. The statewide geologic map database contains units that commonly include mixed carbonate-clastic sequences that cannot be subdivided. The most significant difference between the two deposit types is their respective depositional environments and tectonic settings, but at the reconnaissance level of mapping in most areas of the state, these distinctions are not possible. Furthermore, nearly all critical geochemical parameters (silver [Ag], barium [Ba], Pb, Zn) are common to both types, and therefore it was not possible to do separate assessments for carbonate-hosted and CD Pb-Zn deposits. Areas identified that have moderate to high potential for sediment-hosted Pb-Zn deposits include the (1) western and central Brooks Range, referred to in this report as the Brooks Range zinc belt; (2) Seward Peninsula (and adjacent St. Lawrence Island); (3) Farewell terrane in Interior Alaska; (4) two spatially distinct belts in east-central Alaska; and (5) the central Alaska Range. All areas contain some known deposits, and that provides credibility to the scoring process. Some hydrologic unit codes (HUCs) that have high potential for sediment-hosted Pb-Zn deposits are located adjacent to areas of known deposits and indicate the potential for expansion of known Pb-Zn districts. There are a few areas that have high potential but contain no known sediment hosted Pb-Zn occurrences, prospects, or deposits. In such areas, future investigations could be focused on better defining and constraining prospectivity with additional data.

Alaska

Stratification of a cityscape using census and land use variables for inventory of building materials

A cityscape (or any landscape) can be stratified into environmental units using multiple variables of information. For the purposes of sampling building materials, census and land use variables were used to identify similar strata. In the Metropolitan Statistical Area of a cityscape, the census tract is the smallest unit for which census data are summarized and digitized boundaries are available. For purposes of this analysis, census data on total population, total number of housing units, and number of singleunit dwellings were aggregated into variables of persons per square kilometer and proportion of housing units in single-unit dwellings. The level 2 categories of the U.S. Geological Survey's land use and land cover data base were aggregated into variables of proportion of residential land with buildings, proportion of nonresidential land with buildings, and proportion of open land. The cityscape was stratified, from these variables, into environmental strata of Urban Central Business District, Urban Livelihood Industrial Commercial, Urban Multi-Family Residential, Urban Single Family Residential, Non-Urban Suburbanizing, and Non-Urban Rural. The New England region was chosen as a region with commonality of building materials, and a procedure developed for trial classification of census tracts into one of the strata. Final stratification was performed by discriminant analysis using the trial classification and prior probabilities as weights. The procedure was applied to several cities, and the results analyzed by correlation analysis from a field sample of building materials. The methodology developed for stratification of a cityscape using multiple variables has application to many other types of environmental studies, including forest inventory, hydrologic unit management, waste disposal, transportation studies, and other urban studies. Multivariate analysis techniques have recently been used for urban stratification in England. ?? 1987 Annals of Regional Science.

The Annals of Regional Science

Alaska snowpack response to climate change: Statewide snowfall equivalent and snowpack water scenarios

Climatically driven changes in snow characteristics (snowfall, snowpack, and snowmelt) will affect hydrologic and ecological systems in Alaska over the coming century, yet there exist no projections of downscaled future snow pack metrics for the state of Alaska. We updated historical and projected snow day fraction (PSF, the fraction of days with precipitation falling as snow) from McAfee et al. We developed modeled snowfall equivalent (SFE) derived from the product of snow-day fraction (PSF) and existing gridded precipitation for Alaska from Scenarios Network for Alaska and Arctic Planning (SNAP). We validated the assumption that modeled SFE approximates historical decadally averaged snow water equivalent (SWE) observations from snowcourse and Snow Telemetry (SNOTEL) sites. We present analyses of future downscaled PSF and two new products, October–March SFE and ratio of snow fall equivalent to precipitation (SFE:P) based on bias-corrected statistically downscaled projections of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) Global Climate Model (GCM) temperature and precipitation for the state of Alaska. We analyzed mid-century (2040–2069) and late-century (2070–2099) changes in PSF, SFE, and SFE:P relative to historical (1970–1999) mean temperature and present results for Alaska climate divisions and 12-digit Hydrologic Unit Code (HUC12) watersheds. Overall, estimated historical the SFE is reasonably well related to the observed SWE, with correlations over 0.75 in all decades, and correlations exceeding 0.9 in the 1960s and 1970s. In absolute terms, SFE is generally biased low compared to the observed SWE. PSF and SFE:P decrease universally across Alaska under both Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and RCP 8.5 emissions scenarios, with the smallest changes for RCP 4.5 in 2040–2069 and the largest for RCP 8.5 in 2070–2099. The timing and magnitude of maximum decreases in PSF vary considerably with regional average temperature, with the largest changes in months at the beginning and end of the snow season. Mean SFE changes vary widely among climate divisions, ranging from decreases between −17 and −58% for late twenty-first century in southeast, southcentral, west coast and southwest Alaska to increases up to 21% on the North Slope. SFE increases most at highest elevations and latitudes and decreases most in coastal southern Alaska. SFE:P ratios indicate a broad switch from snow-dominated to transitional annual hydrology across most of southern Alaska by mid-century, and from transitional to rain-dominated watersheds in low elevation parts of southeast Alaska by the late twenty-first century.

Alaska

Geochemical heterogeneity of a gasoline-contaminated aquifer

The scale of biogeochemical reactions was studied in a physically and chemically heterogeneous surficial Coastal Plain aquifer contaminated by a gasoline spill. The physical heterogeneity of the aquifer is manifested in two hydrologic units, a shallow local aquifer of perched water and a regional sandy aquifer. Over the studied vertical interval of 21.3 ft (6.5 m), concentrations of reactive species varied by orders of magnitude, and the impact of biodegradation was expressed to widely varying degrees. A thin (3 ft thick) section of the perched-water zone was the most contaminated; total aromatic hydrocarbons were as high as 19.4 mg/l. Hydrocarbons were degraded by microbially mediated reactions that varied over short vertical distances and time. Anaerobic processes dominated within the low-permeability clay unit, whereas in the more permeable sandy layers nitrate reduction and aerobic degradation occurred. Hydrocarbons were more persistent over time in the low-permeability layer due to the limited availability of electron acceptors for degradation. The microbial degradation of hydrocarbons was linked to sulfate and iron reduction in the clay unit and led to alterations in the aquifer solids; electron microscopy revealed the presence of FeS minerals encrusting primary aquifer grains. High concentrations of Fe 2+ in groundwater, up to 34.5 mg/l, persist in kinetic disequilibrium in the presence of elevated H 2 S levels of 1.0 mg/l. Assessment of aquifer heterogeneities and groundwater contamination was possible due to sample discrimination at a scale of approximately 2 ft (∼0.6 m), a much finer resolution than is attempted in many remedial investigations of polluted aquifers. The information obtained in this type of study is essential to the development of models capable of estimating the fate of hydrocarbons at a site scale.

Journal of Contaminant Hydrology

Estimation of shallow ground-water recharge in the Great Lakes basin

This report presents the results of the first known integrated study of long-term average ground-water recharge to shallow aquifers (generally less than 100 feet deep) in the United States and Canada for the Great Lakes, upper St. Lawrence, and Ottawa River Basins. The approach used was consistent throughout the study area and allows direct comparison of recharge rates in disparate parts of the study area. Estimates of recharge are based on base-flow estimates for streams throughout the Great Lakes Basin and the assumption that base flow in a given stream is equal to the amount of shallow ground-water recharge to the surrounding watershed, minus losses to evapotranspiration. Base-flow estimates were developed throughout the study area using a single model based on an empirical relation between measured base-flow characteristics at streamflow-gaging stations and the surficial-geologic materials, which consist of bedrock, coarse-textured deposits, fine-textured deposits, till, and organic matter, in the surrounding surface-water watershed. Model calibration was performed using base-flow index (BFI) estimates for 959 stations in the U.S. and Canada using a combined 28,784 years of daily streamflow record determined using the hydrograph-separation software program PART. Results are presented for watersheds represented by 8-digit hydrologic unit code (HUC, U.S.) and tertiary (Canada) watersheds. Recharge values were lowest (1.6-4.0 inches/year) in the eastern Lower Peninsula of Michigan; southwest of Green Bay, Wisconsin; in northwestern Ohio; and immediately south of the St. Lawrence River northeast of Lake Ontario. Recharge values were highest (12-16.8 inches/year) in snow shadow areas east and southeast of each Great Lake. Further studies of deep aquifer recharge and the temporal variability of recharge would be needed to gain a more complete understanding of ground-water recharge in the Great Lakes Basin.

Great Lakes Basin

A novel approach to increase accuracy in remotely sensed evapotranspiration through basin water balance and flux tower constraints

Remote sensing-derived evapotranspiration (RSET) products capture the spatiotemporal variations of evapotranspiration (ET) from field to basin scales with unprecedented details. However, their accuracy varies across RSET estimation methods and diverse hydroclimate regions. While ET modeling efforts to account for biophysical processes and controlling parameters have made good progress in recent years, a parallel approach of integrating in-situ ET with RSET could reduce biases in RSET products. Basin water balance ET (WBET) and flux tower ET are widely applied to evaluate RSET accuracy, yet such ET measurements are rarely used for RSET bias corrections, especially for large area applications. To address this issue, we propose a novel approach: the water balance equivalence (WABE) method, which generates spatially continuous WBET for correcting biases in RSET products. The WABE method computes synthetic WBET by integrating observed WBET and flux tower-derived FLUXCOM ET, which fills the spatial gaps of observed WBET and generates a spatially continuous WBET dataset. Synthetic WBET (2002–2015 annual average) of eight-digit hydrologic unit code (HUC8) basins across the conterminous United States (CONUS), constituting 44 % (887 out of 2035 basins) of CONUS basins, was determined within 2.0 % (RMSE = 12 %) of observed WBET at CONUS and between 1–12 % (RMSE = 3–33 %) across 18 regions in CONUS. With WABE-based bias corrections, the overall annual bias of RSET decreased from 10 % (RMSE = 34 %) to 6 % (RMSE = 26 %) across 37 flux tower sites. The WABE method offers a new approach for RSET accuracy improvement and shows great promise for large area implementations with a potential to yield substantial benefits for building accurate basin water budgets and water management decisions.

Conterminous United States

Application of a workflow to determine the feasibility of using simulated streamflow for estimation of streamflow frequency statistics

Streamflow records from hydrologic models are attractive for use in operational hydrology, such as a streamflow frequency analysis. The amount of bias inherent to simulated streamflow from hydrologic models is often unknown, but it is likely present in derivative products. Therefore, a workflow may help determine where streamflow frequency analysis is credibly feasible from simulated streamflow and allow for a systematic way to assess and correct for bias. The proposed workflow consists of hydrologically matching model output locations with streamflow-gauging station (stream gauge) locations, computing the desired statistic from the simulated and observed streamflow record, computing the differences between the simulated and observed statistic (i.e., the bias), and constructing generalized additive models (GAMs) from the differences to determine bias corrections. The US Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Gulf Coast Ecosystem Restoration Council and the US Environmental Protection Agency, is testing the proposed workflow on a low-streamflow frequency (LFF) analysis. Simulated streamflows for the LFF analysis were sourced from a machine-learning model that estimated daily streamflow at Level-12 hydrologic unit code (HUC12) pour points (outlets) in the southern and southeastern US for 1950–2010. The comparison data set consists of 497 stream gauges that are coincident with a HUC12 outlet. The simulated LFF statistics were being overestimated on average; thus, there are limits to using simulated streamflow for frequency analysis. The magnitude of the overprediction generally increases where no-flow conditions are common. Bias corrections determined from the GAMs decreased the magnitude of bias observed in the simulated LFF statistics on average, suggesting it is feasible to expand the operational use of simulated streamflows to frequency analyses with the proposed workflow. The proposed workflow could be advantageous to practitioners interested in leveraging existing and future simulated streamflow data sets with regional and or global coverage.

Journal of Hydrologic Engineering

Groundwater levels and water-quality observations pertaining to the Austin Group, Bexar County, Texas, 2009-11

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the San Antonio Water System, examined groundwater-level altitudes (groundwater levels) and water-quality data pertaining to the Austin Group in Bexar County, Texas, during 2009–11. Hydrologic data collected included daily mean groundwater levels collected at seven sites in the study area. Water-quality samples were collected at six sites in the study area and analyzed for major ions, nutrients, trace elements, organic carbon, and stable isotopes. The resulting datasets were examined for similarities between sites as well as similarities to data from the Edwards aquifer in Bexar County, Tex. Similarities in the groundwater levels between sites completed in the Austin Group and site J (State well AY-68-37-203; hereafter referred to as the “Bexar County index well”) which is completed in the Edwards aquifer might be indicative of groundwater interactions between the two hydrologic units as a result of nearby faulting or conduit flow. The groundwater levels measured at the sites in the study area exhibited varying degrees of similarity to the Bexar County index well. Groundwater levels at site A (State well AY-68-36-136) exhibited similar patterns as those at the Bexar County index well, but the hydrographs of groundwater levels were different in shape and magnitude in response to precipitation and groundwater pumping, and at times slightly offset in time. The groundwater level patterns measured at sites C, D, and E (State wells AY-68-29-513, AY-68-29-514, and AY-68-29-512, respectively) were not similar to those measured at the Bexar County index well. Groundwater levels at site F (State well AY-68-29-819) exhibited general similarities as those observed at the Bexar County index well; however, there were several periods of notable groundwater-level drawdowns at site F that were not evident at the Bexar County index well. These drawdowns were likely because of pumping from the well at site F. The groundwater levels at sites H and I (State wells AY-68-37-205 and AY-68-29-932, respectively) exhibited similar patterns as those at the Bexar County index well (coefficient of determination [R 2 ] of 0.99 at both wells), indicating there might be some degree of hydrologic connectivity to the Edwards aquifer. In general, the water-quality data indicated that the samples were representative of a calcium carbonate dominated system. The major ion chemistry and relations between magnesium to calcium molar ratios and 87 Sr/ 86 Sr isotopic ratios of samples collected from sites H and I indicated that the groundwater from these sites was most geochemically similar to groundwater collected from site B (State well AY-68-36-134), which is representative of groundwater in the Edwards aquifer. Of the sites sampled in this study, there appears to be varying hydrologic connectivity between groundwater from wells completed in the Austin Group and the Edwards aquifer.

Texas

Hydrology of area 46, Northern Great Plains and Rocky Mountain coal provinces, North Dakota

This report is one of a series that describes the hydrology of coal provinces nationwide. The Northern Great Plains and Rocky Mountain Coal Provinces are divided into 20 separate reporting areas which are numbered 43 to 62. This report provides general hydrologic information for Area 46 using a brief text with accompanying maps, charts, or graphs. This information may be used to describe the hydrology of the general area of any existing or proposed mine. Some of the more obvious hydrologic problems of coal development that will need to be addressed before development are disruption of aquifers and potential contamination of streams, aquifers, and the atmosphere. Area 46 is in northwestern North Dakota and is composed of parts or all of 14 hydrologic units based on surface-water drainage basins. The area is drained by the Missouri and Souris Rivers. Lignite-bearing rocks of late Paleocene age underlie nearly all of Area 46. The thickest and most continuous lignite beds occur in the Sentinel Butte and Tongue River Members of the Fort Union Formation. Alluvial deposits and a veneer of glacial drift of late Pleistocene age overlie the lignite-bearing rocks. The climate of the area is semiarid. Mean annual precipitation ranges from 13.9 to 17.8 inches. Mean annual temperatures range from 37.7°F at Bowbells to 40.9°F at Williston. Mean monthly temperatures at Williston range from 8.3°F to 70°F. The growing season is about 125 days. A fairly comprehensive data base for streamflow and water quality in streams is available for Area 46. Many of the small-stream monitoring sites have been operated during the last few years to provide a data base before coal development. With the exception of the Missouri River, which is controlled by several dams, both the quantity and quality of water varies greatly in all streams. A ground-water observation network for water levels and water quality has been established through county ground-water resource investigations and other ground-water studies and provides an adequate data base. Three activities within the U.S. Geological Survey identify and provide access to hydrologic data. These are the National Water-Data Exchange (NAWDEX), the National Water-Data Storage and Retrieval System (WATSTORE), and the Office of Water-Data Coordination (OWDC).

Open-File Report

Availability of ground water in the Gallup area, New Mexico

A thick succession of sedimentary rocks (about 6,000 feet) underlies the town of Gallup and crops out nearby. Although all the sedimentary rocks are capable of yielding some water, only a few units of sandstone and limestone yield water in sufficient quantity and of acceptable quality to be considered as sources of large supplies. The five stratigraphic units that are most productive of ground water form three aquifers, as follows: (a) the Glorieta sandstone and San Andres limestone, (b) the Westwater Canyon member of the Morrison formation and the Dakota sandstone, and (e) the Gallup sandstone. The Glorieta sandstone yields only small amounts of water to wells, except where it is intensely fractured. It probably contributes large amounts of water to the overlying, more permeable San Andres limestone by slow vertical leakage over large areas, as water is withdrawn from the San Andres. The San Andres limestone is discontinuous in the eastern part of the area, wedging out entirely a few miles east of Gallup. Its permeability varies widely because locally the permeability has been greatly increased by fractures and solution channels. On the north flank of the Zuni Mountains, near its outcrop, the San Andres yields as much as 1,100 gpm (gallons per minute) of water to wells. The specific capacity of wells that tap the aquifer formed by this Glorieta sandstone and San Andres limestone ranges from 0.1 to 29 gpm per foot of drawdown. In general, the water in the Glorieta sandstone and San Andres limestone is hard, because it contains much calcium. Both bicarbonate and sulfate anions are abundant. The chemical quality of the water deteriorates with increasing distance from the outcrop. The Westwater Canyon member of the Morrison formation and the Dakota sandstone form a single hydrologic unit extending from about 5 miles east of Gallup westward into Arizona. To the east they are separated by shale of the Brushy Basin member of the Morrison formation. The water-bearing properties of the Westwater Canyon member and the Dakota sandstone are ill defined, because few wells in the area tap either of them exclusively. The specific capacity of wells that tap the Westwater Canyon member, the Dakota sandstone, or both ranges from 0.02 to 2.3 gpm per foot of drawdown. Water in this aquifer generally contains less that 1,000 ppm (parts per million) of dissolved solids. The concentration of sodium and bicarbonate typically is high, and the concentration of sulfate is high locally. The Gallup sandstone is the principal aquifer in the immediate vicinity of, and to the north and south of, Gallup. It yields as much as 260 gpm of water to wells; the specific capacity of wells that tap the Gallup sandstone ranges from 0.08 to 4.7 gpm per foot of drawdown. In general, the water in the Gal]up sandstone is potable, although in places it yields water high in iron, sulfate, and dissolved solids; the concentration of dissolved solids generally is less than 1,000 ppm. Because the yields of all the formations tested at Gallup are small, the town needs a better source of water. The San Juan River discharges annually a larger volume of water than is available from any other source in northwestern New Mexico. Gallup has applied for 15,000 acre-feet of San Juan River water a year, an average of 13,400,000 gpd (gallons per day). This water would be expensive, because about 50 miles of pipeline would be required to transport the water, and it would have to be liked about 1,000 feet over a high ridge north of town. Despite the expense involved, at this time the San Juan River seems to offer the most secure long-term supply of water for the Gallup area.

New Mexico

Assessment of conservation management practices on water quality and observed trends in the Plum Creek Basin, 2010–20

The U.S. Geological Survey and University of Wisconsin–Green Bay collected hydrologic and water-quality data to assess the effectiveness of agricultural conservation management practice (CMP) implementation at mainstem Plum Creek and west Plum Creek in northeastern Wisconsin. These two subbasins cover 88 percent of the Plum Creek Basin (Hydrologic Unit Code 12), which is a subbasin of the lower Fox River Basin. A published total maximum daily load report for the lower Fox River Basin rated Plum Creek as one of the greatest contributors of total suspended solids (TSS) and total phosphorus (TP) draining into the lower Fox River. To reduce TSS and TP exports from Plum Creek, additional cropland conservation practices and watercourse protections were applied between 2012 and 2020. To detect water-quality trends, data were collected during 2010 to 2020 at mainstem Plum Creek and 2013 to 2020 at west Plum Creek. The project used two methods to evaluate CMP effectiveness. The first method focused on evaluating water-quality changes between initial and post-CMP implementation periods during rain- or snowmelt-induced runoff events (hereafter referred to as “events”). In this approach random-forest models were developed to account for environmental factors which influence water quality. Model residuals from the two time periods were compared to determine the significance of water-quality changes associated with CMP implementation for mainstem and west Plum Creek Basins. The second method used a Weighted Regressions on Time, Discharge, and Season time-series approach to examine changes in water quality during the entire study period in mainstem Plum Creek. Results from both methods indicated there were minimal water-quality changes in TSS concentrations and flow-normalized delivery during runoff events during the 10-year period from 2010 to 2020; however, TP concentrations during low streamflow (less than 3 cubic feet per second [ft 3 /s]) may have decreased. The lack of observed improvement may be attributable to any of the following: variability in weather and hydrologic conditions, insufficient post-treatment data, additional cropland being converted to corn production, above average rainfall, streambank degradation, acute and legacy sources of phosphorus from farm fields, excessive/vulnerable manure applications and spills, and point-source discharges.

Wisconsin

Water-quality assessment of the Albemarle-Pamlico drainage basin, North Carolina and Virginia environmental setting and water-quality issues

The Albemarle-Pamlico drainage study unit is one of 60 units of the U.S. Geological Survey's National Water-Quality Assessment Program, and includes the large river basins which drain into the Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds-the Chowan, Roanoke, Tar-Pamlico, and Neuse River Basins. The study unit includes about 28,000 square miles and has an interrelated set of environmental characteristics which strongly influence water quality. The chemical and physical nature of these characteristics are the dominant controls on baseline water quality in the study area. About 50 percent of the study area is forested, slightly more than 30 percent is agricultural, about 15 percent is wetlands, and less than 5 percent is developed. Three million people live in the study area, and activities related to agriculture and development have caused increased concentrations of constituents such as nutrients, pesticides, and suspended sediment. About two-thirds of the 36 to 52 inches of precipitation in the area reenters the atmosphere by evapotranspiration. About one-third of the remaining precipitation reaches streams by overland runoff; the remainder recharges the water table aquifer, where much of the water eventually discharges to streams as ground water. Thus, ground-water quality has a substantial influence on surface-water quality, particularly during dry weather. In 1990, about 152,900 tons of elemental nitrogen and 10,500 tons of elemental phosphorus either were applied to crops as fertilizer or fixed by biological processes, and in 1987, about 43,500 tons of nitrogen and 12,200 tons of phosphorus were produced as animal wastes. In addition, about 1,300 tons of selected herbicides and 400 tons of selected insecticides were applied to crops in 1990. Some 249 permitted point sources discharged 410 million gallons per day, containing an annual load of 5,800 tons of nitrogen and 1,800 tons of phosphorus, to the study area in 1990. Data from 1970-79 indicate that mean annual suspended-sediment yields for selected forested, agricultural, and developed urban basins in North Carolina are 50, 250, and 550 tons per square mile, respectively. In order to facilitate comparisons, much of the data were compiled by hydrologic unit. Homogeneous areas, or strata, representing the most prevalent combinations of environmental factors, such as land use, soils, and geology, were defined. Future data collection and analyses will be designed to answer objective-related concerns about the relations between important water-quality conditions and these study-unit strata.

North Carolina, Virginia

Guidelines for preparation of State water-use estimates for 2015

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has estimated the use of water in the United States at 5-year intervals since 1950. This report describes the water-use categories and data elements used for the national water-use compilation conducted as part of the USGS National Water-Use Science Project. The report identifies sources of water-use information, provides standard methods and techniques for estimating water use at the county level, and outlines steps for preparing documentation for the United States, the District of Columbia, Puerto Rico, and the U.S. Virgin Islands. As part of this USGS program to document water use on a national scale, estimates of water withdrawals for the categories of public supply, self-supplied domestic, industrial, irrigation, and thermoelectric power are prepared for each county in each State, District, or territory by using the guidelines in this report. County estimates of water withdrawals for aquaculture, livestock, and mining are prepared for each State by using a county-based national model, although water-use programs in each State or Water Science Center have the option of producing independent county estimates of water withdrawals for these categories. Estimates of water withdrawals and consumptive use for thermoelectric power will be aggregated to the county level for each State by the national project; additionally, irrigation consumptive use at the county level will also be provided, although study chiefs in each State have the option of producing independent county estimates of water withdrawals and consumptive use for these categories. Estimates of deliveries of water from public supplies for domestic use by county also will be prepared for each State. As a result, total domestic water use can be determined for each State by combining self-supplied domestic withdrawals and public-supplied domestic deliveries. Fresh groundwater and surface-water estimates will be prepared for all categories of use, and saline groundwater and surface-water estimates by county will be prepared for the categories of public supply, industrial, mining, and thermoelectric power. Power production for thermoelectric power and irrigated acres by irrigation system type will be compiled. If data are available, reclaimed-wastewater use will be compiled for the public-supply, industrial, mining, thermoelectric-power, and irrigation categories. Optional water-use categories are commercial, hydroelectric power, and wastewater treatment. Optional data elements are public-supply deliveries to commercial, industrial, and thermoelectric-power users; consumptive use (for categories other than thermoelectric power and irrigation); irrigation conveyance loss; and number of facilities. Aggregation of water-use data by stream basin (eight-digit hydrologic unit code) and principal aquifers also is optional. Water-use data compiled by the States will be stored in the USGS Aggregate Water-Use Data System (AWUDS). This database is a comprehensive aggregated database designed to store mandatory and optional data elements. AWUDS contains several routines that can be used for quality assurance and quality control of the data, and AWUDS produces tables of water-use data from the previous compilations.

Open-File Report

Sources, instream transport, and trends of nitrogen, phosphorus, and sediment in the lower Tennessee River basin, 1980-96

In 1997, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) began an assessment of the lower Tennessee River Basin as part of the National Water-Quality Assessment Program. Existing nutrient and sediment data from 1980 to 1996 were compiled, screened, and interpreted to estimate watershed inputs from nutrient sources, provide a general description of the distribution and transport of nutrients and sediments in surface water, and evaluate trends in nutrient and sediment concentrations in the lower Tennessee (LTEN) River Basin. Nitrogen inputs from major sources varied widely among tributary basins in the LTEN River Basin. Point source wastewater discharges contributed between 0 and 0.61 tons per square mile per year [(tons/mi 2 )/yr]. Of the nonpoint sources of nitrogen for which inputs were estimated (atmospheric deposition, nitrogen fixation, fertilizer application, and livestock waste) livestock waste contributed the largest input in about two-thirds (7 out of 11) of the tributary basins, and fertilizer application contributed the largest input in the remaining 4 basins. Nitrogen input from fertilizer application was the most variable spatially among the nonpoint sources of nitrogen, ranging from 1.5 to 23 (tons/mi 2 )/yr. Atmospheric deposition estimates varied the least from basin to basin, ranging from 1.6 to 2.0 (tons/mi 2 )/yr. Estimates of nitrogen input from livestock waste ranged between 2.0 to 13 (tons/mi 2 )/yr. The percentage of the input from each of these nonpoint sources that entered the surface-water system is not known. Wastewater discharge contributed between 0 and 0.14 (ton/mi 2 )/yr of phosphorus to tributary basins. Livestock waste contributed most of the input in 8 out of the 11 basins, and fertilizer application contributed the most in the remaining 3 basins. Estimates of phosphorus input for fertilizer application ranged from 0.35 to 5.1 (tons/mi 2 )/yr and from 0.62 to 4.3 (tons/mi 2 )/yr from livestock waste. Reservoirs on the main stem of the Tennessee River and on the Duck and Elk Rivers affect nutrient transport because hydrodynamic conditions in the reservoirs promote assimilation by aquatic plants and deposition of particulate matter. Observed decreases in total nitrite plus nitrate and dissolved-orthophosphorus concentrations in reservoirs or at sites downstream of reservoirs during summer months were probably related to seasonality of plant growth. Nutrient and sediment data used to estimate annual instream loads and yields were compiled from various water-quality monitoring programs and represent the best available data in the LTEN River Basin, but these data have several characteristics that limit accuracy of load estimates. Many of the monitoring programs were not designed with the objective of annual load estimation, and data representing storm transport are, therefore, sparse; sampling and analytical methods varied through time and among the monitoring programs, hampering spatial and temporal comparisons. The load estimates computed from these data are useful for evaluating broad spatial patterns of instream load, and comparisons of instream load to inputs, but may not be sufficiently accurate for local-scale evaluations of water quality. Estimates of the mean annual instream load of total nitrogen entering (Chattanooga, Tenn.) and leaving (Paducah, Ky.) the LTEN River Basin were 29,000 and 60,000 tons per year (tons/yr), respectively. These estimates represent a gain of 31,000 tons/yr, on average, across the area (18,930 mi 2 ) between these inlet and outlet sites. The sum of the mean annual instream load from gaged tributaries to the main stem within the study unit was 14,000 tons/yr; however, this number cannot be directly compared with the gain between the inlet and outlet sites because (1) the gaged area represents only 30 percent of the total area and (2) the period of record at many tributary sites did not correspond with the period of record at the inlet or outlet sites. Estimates of mean annual instream load of total phosphorus at the inlet and outlet sites of the LTEN River Basin were 1,300 and 5,000 tons/yr, respectively, representing a gain of 3,700 tons/yr, on average, across the study unit. The sum of the gaged tributary load, representing only 28 percent of the area contributing to the main stem, was 4,300 tons/yr. Although this number cannot be closely compared with the gain throughout the study unit, for the same reasons given for total nitrogen, a general comparison suggests that the main stem of the Tennessee River and the tributary embayments along the main stem function as a sink for total phosphorus, removing a substantial amount from the water column through deposition or assimilation. The estimates of inputs can be compared and correlated with yields (area-normalized instream loads); significant correlations between estimates of inputs and yields might be useful as predictive tools for instream water quality where monitoring data are not available. Yields of nitrogen correlated moderately well with inputs from nonpoint sources, based on 1992 estimates. Nitrogen yield was highest [3.5 (tons/mi 2 )/yr] for Town Creek, for which the balance of nonpoint-source inputs to agricultural lands (fertilizer application plus nitrogen fixation plus livestock waste minus harvest) was also the highest [15 (tons/mi 2 )/yr]. Nitrogen yield was low [1.0 (tons/mi 2 )/yr] for the Buffalo River, for which the balance of agricultural nonpoint-source input was correspondingly low [3.2 (tons/mi 2 )/yr, the second lowest]. Correlation of wastewater discharge with yield was poor, and contrasted with the significant correlation between wastewater discharge and median nitrogen concentration during low streamflow. The poor correlation between wastewater discharge and annual yield was expected, however, as wastewater discharge is a small fraction compared with annual yield. In contrast with nitrogen, phosphorus yield did not correlate well with any estimated inputs or land-use types for the tributary basins. Phosphorus yield was highest [1.1 and 0.93 (tons/mi 2 )/yr] at two sites along the Duck River and at Elk River near Prospect [0.89 (ton/mi 2 )/yr]; however, estimates of inputs at these sites were in the middle of their respective ranges. The influence of the outcrop of phosphatic limestone formations of the brown-phosphate districts in the lower Duck and lower Elk River Basins might be responsible for the poor correlation between estimated inputs and yields of phosphorus. The outcrop pattern of these phosphatic limestones are an important factor to consider as regional boundaries are established for attainable, region-specific water-quality criteria for total phosphorus. Estimates of sediment input from cropland soil erosion in 1992 ranged from 51 to 540 (tons/mi 2 )/yr among the major hydrologic units in the LTEN River Basin. Information was not available to estimate this input for individual tributaries. Sediment yield estimates ranged from 65 to 263 (tons/mi 2 )/yr for the three tributary monitoring basins for which instream data were available, and from 17 to 26 (tons/mi 2 )/yr for the Tennessee River at South Pittsburg and at Pickwick Landing Dam, respectively. Lower sediment yields for the main stem sites compared with the tributary sites is probably due to sediment deposition in the main stem of the Tennessee River and tributary embayments along the main stem. Most of the significant trends in nutrient concentrations from about 1985 to about 1995 were decreasing trends, except for total nitrite plus nitrate, which increased at one site on the Elk River. The spatial distribution of decreasing trends of total nitrogen and total ammonia corresponds with the spatial variation among basins in wastewater loading rate. The time period of observed trends corresponds to the period of improvements in municipal treatment, thus decreases in wastewater effluent concentrations of nitrogen might be responsible for the decreasing trend in instream concentrations at these sites. Concentrations of total phosphorus did not decrease during this period at these sites, as might have been expected considering the reductions in wastewater input of phosphorus during this period.

Alabama, Georgia, Kentucky, Mississippi, Tennessee

Evaluation of the streamgage network for estimating streamflow statistics at ungaged sites in Pennsylvania and the Susquehanna River Basin in Pennsylvania and New York

The current (2015) streamgage network in Pennsylvania and the Susquehanna River Basin in Pennsylvania and New York was evaluated in order to design a network that would meet the hydrologic needs of many partners and serve a variety of purposes and interests, including estimation of streamflow statistics at ungaged sites. This study was done by the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection and the Susquehanna River Basin Commission. The study area includes the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania and the Susquehanna River Basin in Pennsylvania and New York. For this study, 229 streamgages were identified as reference streamgages that could be used to represent ungaged watersheds. Criteria for a reference streamgage are a minimum of 10 years of continuous record, minimally altered streamflow, and a drainage area less than 1,500 square miles. Some of the reference streamgages have been discontinued but provide historical hydrologic information valuable in the determination of streamflow characteristics of ungaged watersheds. Watersheds in the study area not adequately represented by a reference streamgage were identified by examining a range of basin characteristics, the extent of geographic coverage, and the strength of estimated streamflow correlations between gaged and ungaged sites. Basin characteristics were determined for the reference streamgage watersheds and the 1,662 12-digit hydrologic unit code (HUC12) subwatersheds in Pennsylvania and the Susquehanna River Basin using a geographic information system (GIS) spatial analysis and nationally available GIS datasets. Basin characteristics selected for this study include drainage area, mean basin elevation, mean basin slope, percentage of urbanized area, percentage of forested area, percentage of carbonate bedrock, mean annual precipitation, and soil thickness. A GIS spatial analysis was used to identify HUC12 subwatersheds outside the range of basin characteristics of the reference streamgages. There were 320 HUC12 subwatersheds, or 19 percent of the study area, with basin characteristics outside the range represented by the reference streamgage watersheds. A GIS spatial analysis was used to identify geographic gaps in the streamgage network. For each streamgage, a watershed area, called the gage statistical area (GSA), was delineated. The GSA shows the drainage area within a specific drainage-area ratio of the streamgage for transfer of streamflow statistics from that streamgage to ungaged sites on the valid statistical reach of the GSA for a streamgage. In Pennsylvania, a drainage-area ratio of 0.33–3 times the drainage area of the ungaged site was found to perform as well as, if not better than, more traditional ratios such as 0.5–1.5 (or 2) for transfer of selected streamflow statistics. A total of 1,102 HUC12 subwatersheds, or 66 percent of the study area, are outside the GSA for a reference streamgage. The USGS Baseline Streamflow Estimator (BaSE) program was used to determine how well HUC12 subwatersheds outside the streamgage GSAs are represented by the reference streamgage network in Pennsylvania, based on estimated streamflow correlation. The centroid of each HUC12 subwatershed was run through the BaSE program to determine the reference streamgage with the highest estimated streamflow correlation. There were 929 HUC12 subwatersheds in Pennsylvania, or 56 percent of the State, with an estimated correlation coefficient less than 0.96. The results from the basin characteristic, geographic, and streamflow correlation analyses were combined to identify 1,405 HUC12 subwatersheds in Pennsylvania and the Susquehanna River Basin in Pennsylvania and New York that lack a representative reference, based on at least one identified gap. Of the 1,405 HUC12 subwatersheds, 139 exhibited all three gaps, indicating a 8-percent gap in the reference streamgage network. Streamgages in areas with similar hydrologic characteristics and in close proximity to one another can potentially provide similar information (termed streamgages with high substitution potential). Streamgages were considered to have a high substitution potential with a nearby streamgage(s) if (1) the streamflow correlation coefficient was equal to or greater than 0.96, (2) the streamgages had 10 years of concurrent record, and (3) the streamgages are in the same watershed within the GSA of the streamgage. Seventy-four current (2015) streamgages with high substitution potential with at least one other streamgage were identified in the study area. Although these identified streamgages have a high substitution potential, they provide valuable streamflow information to a stakeholder. Selected primary uses of these streamgages were identified to determine the overall need for an individual streamgage.

New York, Pennsylvania

Simulated effects of alternative withdrawal strategies on groundwater flow in the unconfined Kirkwood-Cohansey aquifer system, the Rio Grande water-bearing zone, and the Atlantic City 800-foot sand in the Great Egg Harbor and Mullica River Basins, New Jersey

Groundwater is essential for water supply and plays a critical role in maintaining the environmental health of freshwater and estuarine ecosystems in the Atlantic Coastal basins of New Jersey. The unconfined Kirkwood-Cohansey aquifer system and the confined Atlantic City 800-foot sand are major sources of groundwater in the area, and each faces different water-supply concerns. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the New Jersey Department of Environmental Protection (NJDEP), conducted a study to simulate the effects of withdrawals in the Kirkwood-Cohansey aquifer system, the Atlantic City 800-foot sand, and the Rio Grande water-bearing zone and to evaluate potential scenarios. The study area encompasses Atlantic County and parts of Burlington, Camden, Gloucester, Ocean, Cape May, and Cumberland Counties. The major hydrogeologic units affecting water supply in the study area are the surficial Kirkwood-Cohansey aquifer system, a thick diatomaceous clay confining unit in the upper part of Kirkwood Formation; the Rio Grande water-bearing zone; and the Atlantic City 800-foot sand of the Kirkwood Formation. Hydrogeologic data from 18 aquifer tests and specific capacity data from 230 wells were analyzed to provide horizontal hydraulic conductivity of the aquifers. Groundwater withdrawals are greatest from the Kirkwood-Cohansey aquifer system, and 65 percent of the water is used for public supply. Groundwater withdrawals from the Atlantic City 800-foot sand are about half those from the Kirkwood-Cohansey aquifer system. Ninety-five percent of the withdrawals from the Atlantic City 800-foot sand is used for public supply. Data from six streamgaging stations and 51 low-flow partial record sites were used to estimate base flow in the area. Base flow ranges from 60 to 92 percent of streamflow. A groundwater flow model of the Kirkwood-Cohansey aquifer system, the Rio Grande water-bearing zone, and the Atlantic City 800-foot sand was developed and calibrated using water-level data from 148 wells and base-flow data from 22 gaging or low-flow partial record stations. The Kirkwood-Cohansey aquifer system within the Great Egg Harbor River and the Mullica River Basins was simulated on a monthly basis from 1998 through 2006. An existing regional model of the New Jersey Coastal Plain was revised to provide boundary conditions for the Great Egg Harbor and Mullica River Basin model (referred to as the Great Egg-Mullica model). In the Great Egg-Mullica model, monthly groundwater recharge rates used in the model ranged from 10-15 inches per year in 2001 to 20-25 inches per year in 2005. The mean-absolute error for 10 of the 14 long-term hydrographs used in model calibration was less than 5 ft. Groundwater flow budgets for the Great Egg-Mullica model calibration periods, May 2005 and September 2006, and for the entire model calibration period 1998 to 2006, showed that nearly 70 percent of the water entering the Atlantic City 800-foot sand came from the horizontal connection with the Kirkwood-Cohansey aquifer system in updip areas. The groundwater flow model was used to simulate scenarios under three possible conditions: average 1998 to 2006 withdrawals (Average scenario), full-allocation withdrawals (Full Allocation scenario), and projected 2050-demand withdrawals (2050 Demand scenario). Withdrawals in the Full Allocation scenario are nearly twice the withdrawals from the Average scenario, primarily because of the potential for large agricultural withdrawals if all allocations are used. Withdrawals for the 2050 Demand scenario are about 50 percent greater than those for the Average scenario, primarily due to expected increases in withdrawals for public supply. Monthly base-flow depletion criteria were determined using the Low-Flow Margin method, currently under consideration by NJDEP, to estimate available water on an annual basis at the Hydrologic Unit Code 11 (HUC11) level and to determine whether a water-supply deficit exists. Simulations of various groundwater-withdrawal scenarios were made using the calibrated model, and results were compared with baseline conditions (no withdrawals) to determine where and when base-flow deficits may be occurring and may be expected to occur in the future. Scenarios were simulated to assess base-flow depletion that could occur from different groundwater-withdrawal situations. In the Average scenario, deficits occurred in 7 of the 14 subbasins. In the Full Allocation scenario, deficits occurred in 11 of the subbasins. In the 2050 Demand scenario, deficits occurred in 9 of the 14 subbasins. The largest deficits occurred in the Absecon Creek subbasin because the base-flow depletion criteria for this subbasin is small due to the surface-water diversions that are already occurring there and because existing groundwater withdrawals in the subbasin have resulted in base-flow depletion under current (1998-2006) conditions. Three adjusted scenarios, variations of the Average, Full Allocation, and 2050 Demand scenarios, were simulated; for the adjusted scenarios, the withdrawals were modified in stages with the intent to successively eliminate or minimize the base-flow deficits. Modifications included shifting withdrawals to a deeper part of the Kirkwood-Cohansey aquifer system, implementing seasonal conjunctive use of shallow and deep aquifers, and specifying reductions in withdrawals within a HUC11 subbasin in deficit. The adjusted scenarios are intended to show the relative effectiveness of each of the three approaches in reducing the deficits. Most of the deficits under the Average, Full Allocation, and 2050 Demand scenarios were eliminated by reductions in withdrawals or allocations. Shifting withdrawals to a deeper part of the Kirkwood-Cohansey aquifer system or seasonal conjunctive use did not eliminate deficits for any subbasin. Reductions in withdrawals accounted for more than 95 percent of the total reduction of deficits in all but one subbasin.

New Jersey