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A Landscape Indicator Approach to the Identification and Articulation of the Ecological Consequences of Land Cover Change in the Chesapeake Bay Watershed, 1970-2000

The advancement of geographic science in the area of land surface status and trends and land cover change is at the core of the current geographic scientific research of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) (McMahon and others, 2005). Perhaps the least developed or articulated aspects of USGS land change science have been the identification and analysis of the ecological consequences of land cover change. Changes in land use and land cover significantly affect the ability of ecosystems to provide essential ecological goods and services, which, in turn, affect the economic, public health, and social benefits that these ecosystems provide. One of the great scientific challenges for geographic science is to understand and calibrate the effects of land use and land cover change and the complex interaction between human and biotic systems at a variety of natural, geographic, and political scales. Understanding the dynamics of land surface change requires an increased understanding of the complex nature of human-environmental systems and will require a suite of scientific tools that include traditional geographic data and analysis methods, such as remote sensing and geographic information systems (GIS), as well as innovative approaches to understanding the dynamics of complex systems. One such approach that has gained much recent scientific attention is the landscape indicator, or landscape assessment, approach, which has been developed with the emergence of the science of landscape ecology.

Fact Sheet

Pesticides in U.S. streams and groundwater

A 10­-year study by the U.S. Geological Survey’s (USGS’s) National Water-­Quality Assessment (NAWQA) Program provides a national-­scale view of pesticide occurrence in streams and groundwater. The 1992-2001 study builds upon a preliminary analysis from NAWQA’s first phase of studies during 1992-1996 (1, 2). Pesticide data available from various studies prior to 1992 did not allow national assessment because of limited and variable geographic coverage (usually focusing on individual states or regions), sparse and inconsistent inclusion of pesticides in use, and variable sampling designs (3-5). The expanded geographic coverage and improved data following 10 years of study (Figure 1) confirm and reinforce previously reported findings and enable more detailed analyses of each topic. This article summarizes selected findings from a comprehensive report (6), with a focus on the nature of pesticide occurrence and potential significance to human health and stream ecosystems. Information on study design and methods as well as additional analysis of geographic patterns and trends in relation to use and management practices are available in the full report (6).

Environmental Science & Technology

Determining baseline element composition of lichens. II. Hypogymnia enteromorpha and Usnea spp. at Redwood National Park, California

Hypogymnia enteromorpha and Usnea spp. were collected in the Little Bald Hills ultramafic region of Redwood National Park, California, to establish element-concentration norms. Baselines are presented for Ba, Ca, Cu, Mn, Ni, P, Sr, V, and Zn for both lichen species; for Li, Mg, and K for H. enteromorpha ; and for Al, Ce, Cr, Co, Fe, Na, and Ti for Usnea . Element concentrations of future collections of this same material can be used to monitor possible air quality changes anticipated from mining activities planned nearby. The variability in the element concentrations was partitioned between geographical distance increments and sample preparation and analysis procedures. In general, most of this variability was found in samples less than a few hundreds of meters apart rather than those at about 1 km apart. Therefore, except for Ba and Co, no large geographical element-concentration trends were observed. Samples of both species contained elevated levels of Ni and Mg, which probably reflect the ultramafic terrain over which they occur.

California

Sources of endocrine-disrupting compounds in North Carolina waterways: a geographic information systems approach

The presence of endocrine-disrupting compounds (EDCs), particularly estrogenic compounds, in the environment has drawn public attention across the globe, yet a clear understanding of the extent and distribution of estrogenic EDCs in surface waters and their relationship to potential sources is lacking. The objective of the present study was to identify and examine the potential input of estrogenic EDC sources in North Carolina water bodies using a geographic information system (GIS) mapping and analysis approach. Existing data from state and federal agencies were used to create point and nonpoint source maps depicting the cumulative contribution of potential sources of estrogenic EDCs to North Carolina surface waters. Water was collected from 33 sites (12 associated with potential point sources, 12 associated with potential nonpoint sources, and 9 reference), to validate the predictive results of the GIS analysis. Estrogenicity (measured as 17β-estradiol equivalence) ranged from 0.06 ng/L to 56.9 ng/L. However, the majority of sites (88%) had water 17β-estradiol concentrations below 1 ng/L. Sites associated with point and nonpoint sources had significantly higher 17β-estradiol levels than reference sites. The results suggested that water 17β-estradiol was reflective of GIS predictions, confirming the relevance of landscape-level influences on water quality and validating the GIS approach to characterize such relationships.

Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry

Multi-species occurrence models to evaluate the effects of conservation and management actions

Conservation and management actions often have direct and indirect effects on a wide range of species. As such, it is important to evaluate the impacts that such actions may have on both target and non-target species within a region. Understanding how species richness and composition differ as a result of management treatments can help determine potential ecological consequences. Yet it is difficult to estimate richness because traditional sampling approaches detect species at variable rates and some species are never observed. We present a framework for assessing management actions on biodiversity using a multi-species hierarchical model that estimates individual species occurrences, while accounting for imperfect detection of species. Our model incorporates species-specific responses to management treatments and local vegetation characteristics and a hierarchical component that links species at a community-level. This allows for comprehensive inferences on the whole community or on assemblages of interest. Compared to traditional species models, occurrence estimates are improved for all species, even for those that are rarely observed, resulting in more precise estimates of species richness (including species that were unobserved during sampling). We demonstrate the utility of this approach for conservation through an analysis comparing bird communities in two geographically similar study areas: one in which white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) densities have been regulated through hunting and one in which deer densities have gone unregulated. Although our results indicate that species and assemblage richness were similar in the two study areas, point-level richness was significantly influenced by local vegetation characteristics, a result that would have been underestimated had we not accounted for variability in species detection.

Biological Conservation

Volcanism on Io: New insights from global geologic mapping

We produced the first complete, 1:15 M-scale global geologic map of Jupiter’s moon Io, based on a set of monochrome and color Galileo – Voyager image mosaics produced at a spatial resolution of 1 km/pixel. The surface of Io was mapped into 19 units based on albedo, color and surface morphology, and is subdivided as follows: plains (65.8% of surface), lava flow fields (28.5%), mountains (3.2%), and patera floors (2.5%). Diffuse deposits (DD) that mantle the other units cover ∼18% of Io’s surface, and are distributed as follows: red (8.6% of surface), white (6.9%), yellow (2.1%), black (0.6%), and green (∼0.01%). Analyses of the geographical and areal distribution of these units yield a number of results, summarized below. (1) The distribution of plains units of different colors is generally geographically constrained: Red–brown plains occur >±30° latitude, and are thought to result from enhanced alteration of other units induced by radiation coming in from the poles. White plains (possibly dominated by SO 2 + contaminants) occur mostly in the equatorial antijovian region (±30°, 90–230°W), possibly indicative of a regional cold trap. Outliers of white, yellow, and red–brown plains in other regions may result from long-term accumulation of white, yellow, and red diffuse deposits, respectively. (2) Bright (possibly sulfur-rich) flow fields make up 30% more lava flow fields than dark (presumably silicate) flows (56.5% vs. 43.5%), and only 18% of bright flow fields occur within 10 km of dark flow fields. These results suggest that secondary sulfurous volcanism (where a bright-dark association is expected) could be responsible for only a fraction of Io’s recent bright flows, and that primary sulfur-rich effusions could be an important component of Io’s recent volcanism. An unusual concentration of bright flows at ∼45–75°N, ∼60–120°W could be indicative of more extensive primary sulfurous volcanism in the recent past. However, it remains unclear whether most bright flows are bright because they are sulfur flows, or because they are cold silicate flows covered in sulfur-rich particles from plume fallout. (3) We mapped 425 paterae (volcano-tectonic depressions), up from 417 previously identified by Radebaugh et al. (Radebaugh, J., Keszthelyi, L.P., McEwen, A.S., Turtle, E.P., Jaeger, W., Milazzo, M. [2001]. J. Geophys. Res. 106, 33005–33020). Although these features cover only 2.5% of Io’s surface, they correspond to 64% of all detected hot spots; 45% of all hot spots are associated with the freshest dark patera floors, reflecting the importance of active silicate volcanism to Io’s heat flow. (4) Mountains cover only ∼3% of the surface, although the transition from mountains to plains is gradational with the available imagery. 49% of all mountains are lineated and presumably layered, showing evidence of linear structures supportive of a tectonic origin. In contrast, only 6% of visible mountains are mottled (showing hummocks indicative of mass wasting) and 4% are tholi (domes or shields), consistent with a volcanic origin. (5) Initial analyses of the geographic distributions of map units show no significant longitudinal variation in the quantity of Io’s mountains or paterae, in contrast to earlier studies. This is because we use the area of mountain and patera materials as opposed to the number of structures, and our result suggests that the previously proposed anti-correlation of mountains and paterae (Schenk, P., Hargitai, H., Wilson, R., McEwen, A., Thomas, P. [2001]. J. Geophys. Res. 106, 33201–33222; Kirchoff, M.R., McKinnon, W.B., Schenk, P.M. [2011]. Earth Planet. Sci. Lett. 301, 22–30) is more complex than previously thought. There is also a slight decrease in surface area of lava flows toward the poles of Io, perhaps indicative of variations in volcanic activity. (6) The freshest bright and dark flows make up about 29% of all of Io’s flow fields, suggesting active emplacement is occurring in less than a third of Io’s visible lava fields. (7) About 47% of Io’s diffuse deposits (by area) are red, presumably deriving their color from condensed sulfur gas, and ∼38% are white, presumably dominated by condensed SO 2 . The much greater areal extent of gas-derived diffuse deposits (red + white, 85%) compared to presumably pyroclast-bearing diffuse deposits (dark (silicate tephra) + yellow (sulfur-rich tephra), 15%) indicates that there is effective separation between the transport of tephra and gas in many Ionian explosive eruptions. Future improvements in the geologic mapping of Io can be obtained via (a) investigating the relationships between different color/material units that are geographically and temporally associated, (b) better analysis of the temporal variations in the map units, and (c) additional high-resolution images (spatial resolutions ∼200 m/pixel or better). These improvements would be greatly facilitated by new data, which could be obtained by future missions.

Icarus

Estimating millet production for famine early warning: An application of crop simulation modelling using satellite and ground-based data in Burkina Faso

Early warning of impending poor crop harvests in highly variable environments can allow policy makers the time they need to take appropriate action to ameliorate the effects of regional food shortages on vulnerable rural and urban populations. Crop production estimates for the current season can be obtained using crop simulation models and remotely sensed estimates of rainfall in real time, embedded in a geographic information system that allows simple analysis of simulation results. A prototype yield estimation system was developed for the thirty provinces of Burkina Faso. It is based on CERES-Millet, a crop simulation model of the growth and development of millet ( Pennisetum spp.). The prototype was used to estimate millet production in contrasting seasons and to derive production anomaly estimates for the 1986 season. Provincial yields simulated halfway through the growing season were generally within 15% of their final (end-of-season) values. Although more work is required to produce an operational early warning system of reasonable credibility, the methodology has considerable potential for providing timely estimates of regional production of the major food crops in countries of sub-Saharan Africa.

Agricultural and Forest Meteorology

A terrain-based paired-site sampling design to assess biodiversity losses from eastern hemlock decline

Biodiversity surveys are often hampered by the inability to control extraneous sources of variability introduced into comparisons of populations across a heterogenous landscape. If not specifically accounted for a priori, this noise can weaken comparisons between sites, and can make it difficult to draw inferences about specific ecological processes. We developed a terrain-based, paired-site sampling design to analyze differences in aquatic biodiversity between streams draining eastern hemlock (Tsuga canadensis) forests, and those draining mixed hardwood forests in Delaware Water Gap National Recreation Area (USA). The goal of this design was to minimize variance due to terrain influences on stream communities, while representing the range of hemlock dominated stream environments present in the park. We used geographic information systems (GIS) and cluster analysis to define and partition hemlock dominated streams into terrain types based on topographic variables and stream order. We computed similarity of forest stands within terrain types and used this information to pair hemlock-dominated streams with hardwood counterparts prior to sampling. We evaluated the effectiveness of the design through power analysis and found that power to detect differences in aquatic invertebrate taxa richness was highest when sites were paired and terrain type was included as a factor in the analysis. Precision of the estimated difference in mean richness was nearly doubled using the terrain-based, paired site design in comparison to other evaluated designs. Use of this method allowed us to sample stream communities representative of park-wide forest conditions while effectively controlling for landscape variability.

Environmental Monitoring and Assessment

Profiles of gamma-ray and magnetic data for aerial surveys over parts of the Western United States from longitude 108 to 126 degrees W. and from latitude 34 to 49 degrees N.

This CD-ROM contains images generated from geophysical data, software for displaying and analyzing the images and software for displaying and examining profile data from aerial surveys flown as part of the National Uranium Resource Evaluation (NURE) Program of the U.S. Department of Energy. The images included are of gamma-ray data (uranium, thorium, and potassium channels), Bouguer gravity data, isostatic residual gravity data, aeromagnetic anomalies, topography, and topography with bathymetry. This publication contains image data for the conterminous United States and profile data for the conterminous United States within the area longitude 108 to 126 degrees W. and latitude 34 to 49 degrees N. The profile data include apparent surface concentrations of potassium, uranium, and thorium, the residual magnetic field, and the height above the ground. The images on this CD-ROM include graytone and color images of each data set, color shaded-relief images of the potential-field and topographic data, and color composite images of the gamma-ray data. The image display and analysis software can register images with geographic and geologic overlays. The profile display software permits the user to view the profiles as well as obtain data listings and export ASCII versions of data for selected flight lines.

Data Series

Sea surface temperature estimates for the mid-Piacenzian Indian Ocean—Ocean Drilling Program sites 709, 716, 722, 754, 757, 758, and 763

Despite the wealth of global paleoclimate data available for the warm period in the middle of the Piacenzian Stage of the Pliocene Epoch (about 3.3 to 3.0 million years ago [Ma]; Dowsett and others, 2013, and references therein), the Indian Ocean has remained a region of sparse geographic coverage in terms of microfossil analysis. In an effort to characterize the surface Indian Ocean during this interval, we examined the planktic foraminifera from Ocean Drilling Program (ODP) sites 709, 716, 722, 754, 757, 758, and 763, encompassing a wide range of oceanographic conditions. We quantitatively analyzed the data for sea surface temperature (SST) estimation using both the modern analog technique (MAT) and a factor analytic transfer function. The data will contribute to the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Pliocene Research, Interpretation and Synoptic Mapping (PRISM) Project’s global SST reconstruction and climate model SST boundary condition for the mid-Piacenzian and will become part of the PRISM verification dataset designed to ground-truth Pliocene climate model simulations (Dowsett and others, 2013).

Open-File Report

Mississippi Basin Carbon Project science plan

Understanding the carbon cycle is one of the most difficult challenges facing scientists who study the global environment. Lack of understanding of global carbon cycling is perhaps best illustrated by our inability to balance the present-day global CO 2 budget. The amount of CO 2 produced by burning fossil fuels and by deforestation appears to exceed the amount accumulating in the atmosphere and oceans. The carbon needed to balance the CO 2 budget (the so-called "missing" carbon) is probably absorbed by land plants and ultimately deposited in soils and sediments. Increasing evidence points toward the importance of these terrestrial processes in northern temperate latitudes. Thus, efforts to balance the global CO 2 budget focus particular attention on terrestrial carbon uptake in our own North American "backyard." The USGS Mississippi Basin Carbon Project conducts research on the carbon budget in soils and sediments of the Mississippi River basin. The project focuses on the effects of land-use change on carbon storage and transport, nutrient cycles, and erosion and sedimentation throughout the Mississippi River Basin. Particular emphasis is placed on understanding the interactions among changes in erosion, sedimentation, and soil dynamics. The project includes spatial analysis of a wide variety of geographic data sets, estimation of whole-basin and sub-basin carbon and sediment budgets, development and implementation of terrestrial carbon-cycle models, and site-specific field studies of relevant processes. The USGS views this project as a "flagship" effort to demonstrate its capabilities to address the importance of the land surface to biogeochemical problems such as the global carbon budget.

Open-File Report

Carbon storage and late Holocene chronostratigraphy of a Mississippi River deltaic marsh, St. Bernard Parish, Louisiana

Today, the causes, results, and time scale(s) of climate change, past and potential, are the focus of much research, news coverage, and pundit speculation. Many of the US government scientific agencies have some funds earmarked for research into past and (or) future climate change (National Science and Technology Council, 1997). The Mississippi Basin Carbon Project (MBCP) is part of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) effort in global change research . The project is motivated by the need to increase our understanding of the role of terrestrial carbon in the global carbon cycle, particularly in the temperate latitudes of North America. The global land area between 30 O and 60 O N is thought to be a large sink for atmospheric CO2 (IPCC, 1996). The identity of this sink is unknown, but is in part the soil and sediment that makes up the upper several meters of the Earth's surface. The MBCP focuses on the Mississippi River basin, the third largest river system in the world (fig. 1), that drains an area of 3.3 x 10 6 km 2 (1.27 x 10 6 mi 2 ). The Mississippi River basin includes more than 40 percent of the land surface, and is the home of more than one-third of the population, of the conterminous United States. Because climate, vegetation, and land use vary greatly within the Mississippi River basin, the primary terrestrial sinks for carbon need to be identified and quantified for representative parts of the basin. The primary goal of the MBCP is to quantify the interactive effects of land-use, erosion, sedimentation, and soil development on carbon storage and nutrient cycles within the Mississippi River basin. The project includes spatial analysis of a wide variety of geographic data, estimation of whole-basin and sub-basin carbon and sediment budgets, development and implementation of terrestrial carbon-cycle models, and site-specific field studies of relevant processes. Areas can be studied and compared, and estimates can be made for whole-basin carbon storage and flux.

Open-File Report

The South Florida Ecosystem Portfolio Model - A Map-Based Multicriteria Ecological, Economic, and Community Land-Use Planning Tool

The South Florida Ecosystem Portfolio Model (EPM) prototype is a regional land-use planning Web tool that integrates ecological, economic, and social information and values of relevance to decision-makers and stakeholders. The EPM uses a multicriteria evaluation framework that builds on geographic information system-based (GIS) analysis and spatially-explicit models that characterize important ecological, economic, and societal endpoints and consequences that are sensitive to regional land-use/land-cover (LULC) change. The EPM uses both economics (monetized) and multiattribute utility (nonmonetized) approaches to valuing these endpoints and consequences. This hybrid approach represents a methodological middle ground between rigorous economic and ecological/ environmental scientific approaches. The EPM sacrifices some degree of economic- and ecological-forecasting precision to gain methodological transparency, spatial explicitness, and transferability, while maintaining credibility. After all, even small steps in the direction of including ecosystem services evaluation are an improvement over current land-use planning practice (Boyd and Wainger, 2003). There are many participants involved in land-use decision-making in South Florida, including local, regional, State, and Federal agencies, developers, environmental groups, agricultural groups, and other stakeholders (South Florida Regional Planning Council, 2003, 2004). The EPM's multicriteria evaluation framework is designed to cut across the objectives and knowledge bases of all of these participants. This approach places fundamental importance on social equity and stakeholder participation in land-use decision-making, but makes no attempt to determine normative socially 'optimal' land-use plans. The EPM is thus a map-based set of evaluation tools for planners and stakeholders to use in their deliberations of what is 'best', considering a balancing of disparate interests within a regional perspective. Although issues of regional ecological sustainability can be explored with the EPM (for example, changes in biodiversity potential and regional habitat fragmentation), it does not attempt to define or evaluate long-term ecological sustainability as such. Instead, the EPM is intended to provide transparent first-order indications of the direction of ecological, economic, and community change, not to make detailed predictions of ecological, economic, and social outcomes. In short, the EPM is an attempt to widen the perspectives of its users by integrating natural and social scientific information in a framework that recognizes the diversity of values at stake in South Florida land-use planning. For terrestrial ecosystems, land-cover change is one of the most important direct drivers of changes in ecosystem services (Hassan and others, 2005). More specifically, the fragmentation of habitat from expanding low-density development across landscapes appears to be a major driver of terrestrial species decline and the impairment of terrestrial ecosystem integrity, in some cases causing irreversible impairment from a land-use planning perspective (Brody, 2008; Peck, 1998). Many resource managers and land-use planners have come to realize that evaluating land-use conversions on a parcel-by-parcel basis leads to a fragmented and narrow view of the regional effects of natural land-cover loss to development (Marsh and Lallas, 1995). The EPM is an attempt to integrate important aspects of the coupled natural-system/human-system view from a regional planning perspective. The EPM evaluates proposed land-use changes, both conversion and intensification, in terms of relevant ecological, economic, and social criteria that combine information about probable land-use outcomes, based on ecological and environmental models, as well as value judgments, as expressed in user-modifiable preference models. Based on on-going meetings and interviews with stakeholders and potential tool users we foc

Scientific Investigations Report

Arsenic in Illinois ground water — Community and private supplies

Assessing the distribution of arsenic in ground water from community-water supplies, private supplies, or monitoring wells is part of the process of determining the risk of arsenic contamination of drinking water in Illinois. Lifestyle, genetic, and environmental factors make certain members of the population more susceptible to adverse health effects from repeated exposure to drinking water with high arsenic concentrations (Ryker, 2001). In addition, such factors may have geographic distribution patterns that complicate the analysis of the relation between arsenic in drinking water and health effects. For example, arsenic may not be the only constituent affecting the quality of drinking water in a region (Ryker, 2001); however, determining the extent and distribution of arsenic in ground water is a starting place to assess the potential risk for persons drinking from a community or private supply. Understanding the potential sources and pathways that mobilize arsenic in ground water is a necessary step in protecting the drinking-water supply in Illinois.

Illinios

Grammar To Graph, an approach for semantic transformation of annotations to triples

Linguistic representation of geographic knowledge is semantically complex and particularly challenging when employing geographic information technology to automate interpreted analysis dealing with unstructured knowledge. This study describes an approach called GrammarToGraph (G2G) that applies dependency grammar rules through natural language processing to transform annotation data into structured geospatial semantic graph triples. This approach offers data handling advantages that include reducing string annotation storage needs, improving the logical specification of relations between objects, and providing reusable classes and properties that support graph queries and logic inference.

Conference Paper

Progress report on the North American Breeding Bird Survey

The Breeding Bird Survey has been monitoring bird population changes in the U.S.A. and Canada since 1966. Each cooperator makes 50 3-minute stops at 0.8-km intervals along randomly selected roadside routes in 4 to 4 1/2 hours on one morning in June of each year. Data from the 1500 to 1600 routes are entered on magnetic tape, edited for accuracy, and then used for statistical analysis of population change at four geographic levels: physiographic region; state or province; region (eastern, central and western); and the continent. Examples of use of the data are: (1) detection of year-to-year changes in continental or rcgional populations; (2) use of population indices to show long-term population changes; (3) range expansion and contraction at the state level, including some of the reasons for those changes and documenting the associated population shifts within the original range; (4) mapping distribution and relative abundance on either a state, regional or continental scale; (5) mapping changes in abundance; and(6) comparing breeding with winter distribution. Future potential uses will include estimates of total continental populations and indices of environmental quality.

Acta Ornithologica

A hierarchical model for regional analysis of population change using Christmas Bird Count data, with application to the American Black Duck

Analysis of Christmas Bird Count (CBC) data is complicated by the need to account for variation in effort on counts and to provide summaries over large geographic regions. We describe a hierarchical model for analysis of population change using CBC data that addresses these needs. The effect of effort is modeled parametrically, with parameter values varying among strata as identically distributed random effects. Year and site effects are modeled hierarchically, accommodating large regional variation in number of samples and precision of estimates. The resulting model is complex, but a Bayesian analysis can be conducted using Markov chain Monte Carlo techniques. We analyze CBC data for American Black Ducks (Anas rubripes), a species of considerable management interest that has historically been monitored using winter surveys. Over the interval 1966-2003, Black Duck populations showed distinct regional patterns of population change. The patterns shown by CBC data are similar to those shown by the Midwinter Waterfowl Inventory for the United States.

Condor

Range-wide population genomic structure of the Karner blue butterfly, Plebejus (Lycaeides) samuelis

The Karner blue butterfly, Plebejus ( Lycaeides ) samuelis , is an endangered North American climate change-vulnerable species that has undergone substantial historical habitat loss and population decline. To better understand the species' genetic status and support Karner blue conservation, we sampled 116 individuals from 22 localities across the species' geographical range in Wisconsin (WI), Michigan (MI), Indiana (IN), and New York (NY). Using genomic analysis, we found that these samples were divided into three major geographic groups, NY, WI, and MI-IN, with populations in WI and MI-IN each further divided into three subgroups. A high level of inbreeding was revealed by inbreeding coefficients above 10% in almost all populations in our study. However, strong correlation between F ST and geographical distance suggested that genetic divergence between populations increases with distance, such that introducing individuals from more distant populations may be a useful strategy for increasing population-level diversity and preserving the species. We also found that Karner blue populations had lower genetic diversity than closely related species and had more alleles that were present only at low frequencies (<5%) in other species. Some of these alleles may negatively impact individual fitness and may have become prevalent in Karner blue populations due to inbreeding. Finally, analysis of these possibly deleterious alleles in the context of predicted three-dimensional structures of proteins revealed potential molecular mechanisms behind population declines, providing insights for conservation. This rich new range-wide understanding of the species' population genomic structure can contextualize past extirpations and help conserve and even enhance Karner blue genetic diversity.

Indiana, Michigan, Wisconsin