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At least 181 records · Page 10Linked to original sources
USGS2026

Stochastic within-host dynamics and climate-sensitive traits generate predictable patterns of variation in disease outcomes

Understanding how climatic variables impact host-pathogen relationships in temperature-sensitive ectothermic host organisms is crucial under global change. Few studies have explored how temperature gradients generate inter-individual variation in epidemiological traits like host susceptibility or pathogen replication. Here, we develop a mathematical model to explore a novel hypothesis: stochastic within-host dynamics and simulated thermal mismatches between host and pathogen traits generate predictable variation in infection outcomes among hosts and across thermal gradients. Our model demonstrates that varying trait thermal optima in host immunity and pathogen replication, and stochastic within-host processes produced variation in infection outcomes. Variability was low when temperatures strongly favored host or pathogen traits, but high and diverse when their performance was similar across a broad thermal range. In contrast, when trait performance was equal across all temperatures (no mismatch) variability remained low at all temperatures. Further, the magnitude of variation, quantified by entropy, exhibited predictable patterns depending on host-pathogen thermal mismatches. We conclude that interactions between trait thermal mismatches and within-host stochasticity provide a theoretical framework to improve ectotherm disease models under climate change, providing a valuable tool for exploring the impacts of environmental change on epizootic or epidemic dynamics, particularly in vulnerable marine ecosystems.

Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society, S↗
USGS2025

A system dynamics model to understand the integrated ecological and human dimension aspects of wildlife health and disease management

Chronic wasting disease (CWD) presents an ongoing challenge for the management of deer populations and sustaining harvest opportunities across North America. Existing disease models often fail to fully capture the complex interplay between disease dynamics, host ecology, and socio-economic factors. We developed a comprehensive system dynamics (SD) model that integrates demographic, epidemiological, ecological, and socio-economic processes within a single model to more fully characterize the complex network of causal feedbacks throughout the system. The model was calibrated using a Bayesian approach that incorporates prior knowledge to generate biologically interpretable outcomes, even with sparse data. For estimating the joint posterior distribution of model parameters, we leveraged time series of deer abundance, harvest composition, genetic profiles, CWD surveillance, and hunter demographics and behavior. Model outputs reproduced key system behaviors, including observed CWD prevalence trends, deer population dynamics, and hunter license purchasing patterns. Model predictions were most sensitive to parameters governing initial deer population size and recruitment. While model predictions generally aligned with observed data, discrepancies in early CWD detection and overestimation of the reactivation of long-inactive hunters reflect data limitations and modeling challenges. Key results suggest that indirect transmission is necessary to explain observed prevalence, that transmission is moderately density-dependent, and that observed population-level genetic shifts driven by CWD may play a role in transmission and progression. The SD modelling approach enabled estimation of difficult-to-measure parameters and identified potential leverage points for management—such as prioritizing increasing participation in antlerless harvest of existing hunters over the recruitment of new hunters. This integrated modeling approach offers a flexible foundation for adaptive wildlife disease management and emphasizes the value of unifying biological and human dimension processes to better inform effective, evidence-based policy.

BioRxiv↗
USGS2023

Revealing the extent of sea otter impacts on bivalve prey through multi-trophic monitoring and mechanistic models

Sea otters are apex predators that can exert considerable influence over the nearshore communities they occupy. Since facing near extinction in the early 1900s, sea otters are making a remarkable recovery in Southeast Alaska, particularly in Glacier Bay, the largest protected tidewater glacier fjord in the world. The expansion of sea otters across Glacier Bay offers both a challenge to monitoring and stewardship and an unprecedented opportunity to study the top-down effect of a novel apex predator across a diverse and productive ecosystem. Our goal was to integrate monitoring data across trophic levels, space, and time to quantify and map the predator–prey interaction between sea otters and butter clams Saxidomus gigantea , one of the dominant large bivalves in Glacier Bay and a favoured prey of sea otters. We developed a spatially-referenced mechanistic differential equation model of butter clam dynamics that combined both environmental drivers of local population growth and estimates of otter abundance from aerial survey data. We embedded this model in a Bayesian statistical framework and fit it to clam survey data from 43 intertidal and subtidal sites across Glacier Bay. Prior to substantial sea otter expansion, we found that butter clam density was structured by an environmental gradient driven by distance from glacier (represented by latitude) and a quadratic effect of current speed. Estimates of sea otter attack rate revealed spatial heterogeneity in sea otter impacts and a negative relationship with local shoreline complexity. Sea otter exploitation of productive butter clam habitat substantially reduced the abundance and altered the distribution of butter clams across Glacier Bay, with potential cascading consequences for nearshore community structure and function. Spatial variation in estimated sea otter predation processes further suggests that community context and local environmental conditions mediate the top-down influence of sea otters on a given prey. Overall, our framework provides high-resolution insights about the interaction among components of this food web and could be applied to a variety of other systems involving invasive species, epidemiology or migration.

Journal of Animal Ecology↗
USGS2019

The ecology of chronic wasting disease in wildlife

Prions are misfolded infectious proteins responsible for a group of fatal neurodegenerative diseases termed transmissible spongiform encephalopathy or prion diseases. Chronic Wasting Disease (CWD) is the prion disease with the highest spillover potential, affecting at least seven Cervidae (deer) species. The zoonotic potential of CWD is inconclusive and cannot be ruled out. A risk of infection for other domestic and wildlife species is also plausible. Here, we review the current status of the knowledge with respect to CWD ecology in wildlife. Our current understanding of the geographic distribution of CWD lacks spatial and temporal detail, does not consider the biogeography of infectious diseases, and is largely biased by sampling based on hunters' cooperation and funding available for each region. Limitations of the methods used for data collection suggest that the extent and prevalence of CWD in wildlife is underestimated. If the zoonotic potential of CWD is confirmed in the short term, as suggested by recent results obtained in experimental animal models, there will be limited accurate epidemiological data to inform public health. Research gaps in CWD prion ecology include the need to identify specific biological characteristics of potential CWD reservoir species that better explain susceptibility to spillover, landscape and climate configurations that are suitable for CWD transmission, and the magnitude of sampling bias in our current understanding of CWD distribution and risk. Addressing these research gaps will help anticipate novel areas and species where CWD spillover is expected, which will inform control strategies. From an ecological perspective, control strategies could include assessing restoration of natural predators of CWD reservoirs, ultrasensitive CWD detection in biotic and abiotic reservoirs, and deer density and landscape modification to reduce CWD spread and prevalence.

Biological Reviews↗
USGS2022

A framework to integrate innovations in invasion science for proactive management

Invasive alien species (IAS) are a rising threat to biodiversity, national security, and regional economies, with impacts in the hundreds of billions of U.S. dollars annually. Proactive or predictive approaches guided by scientific knowledge are essential to keeping pace with growing impacts of invasions under climate change. Although the rapid development of diverse technologies and approaches has produced tools with the potential to greatly accelerate invasion research and management, innovation has far outpaced implementation and coordination. Technological and methodological syntheses are urgently needed to close the growing implementation gap and facilitate interdisciplinary collaboration and synergy among evolving disciplines. A broad review is necessary to demonstrate the utility and relevance of work in diverse fields to generate actionable science for the ongoing invasion crisis. Here, we review such advances in relevant fields including remote sensing, epidemiology, big data analytics, environmental DNA (eDNA) sampling, genomics, and others, and present a generalized framework for distilling existing and emerging data into products for proactive IAS research and management. This integrated workflow provides a pathway for scientists and practitioners in diverse disciplines to contribute to applied invasion biology in a coordinated, synergistic, and scalable manner.

Biological Reviews↗
USGS2018

A spatial approach to combatting wildlife crime

Poaching can have devastating impacts on animal and plant numbers, and in many countries has reached crisis levels, with illegal hunters employing increasingly sophisticated techniques. Here, we show how geographic profiling – a mathematical technique originally developed in criminology and recently applied to animal foraging and epidemiology – can be adapted for use in investigations of wildlife crime, using data from an eight-year study in Savé Valley Conservancy, Zimbabwe that in total includes more than 10,000 incidents of illegal hunting and the deaths of 6,454 wild animals. Using a subset of these data for which the illegal hunters’ identities are known, we show that the model can successfully identify the illegal hunters’ home villages using the spatial locations of hunting incidences (for example, snares) as input, and show how this can be improved by manipulating the probability surface inside the Conservancy to reflect the fact that – although the illegal hunters mostly live outside the Conservancy, the majority of hunting occurs inside (in criminology, ‘commuter crime’). The results of this analysis – combined with rigorous simulations – show for the first time how geographic profiling can be combined with GIS data and applied to situations with more complex spatial patterns – for example, where landscape heterogeneity means that some parts of the study area are unsuitable (e.g. aquatic areas for terrestrial animals, or vice versa), or where landscape permeability differs (for example, forest bats tending not to fly over open areas). More broadly, these results show how geographic profiling can be used to target anti-poaching interventions more effectively and more efficiently, with important implications for the development of management strategies and conservation plans in a range of conservation scenarios.

Conservation Biology↗
USGS2021

Risks posed by SARS‐CoV‐2 to North American bats during winter fieldwork

The virus that causes COVID‐19 likely evolved in a mammalian host, possibly Old‐World bats, before adapting to humans, raising the question of whether reverse zoonotic transmission to bats is possible. Wildlife management agencies in North America are concerned that the activities they authorize could lead to transmission of SARS‐CoV‐2 to bats from humans. A rapid risk assessment conducted in April 2020 suggested that there was a small but significant possibility that SARS‐CoV‐2 could be transmitted from humans to bats during summer fieldwork, absent precautions. Subsequent challenge studies in a laboratory setting have shed new information on these risks, as has more detailed information on human epidemiology and transmission. This inquiry focuses on the risk to bats from winter fieldwork, specifically surveys of winter roosts and handling of bats to test for white‐nose syndrome or other research needs. We use an aerosol transmission model, with parameter estimates both from the literature and from formal expert judgment, to estimate the risk to three species of North American bats, as a function of several factors. We find that risks of transmission are lower than in the previous assessment and are notably affected by chamber volume and local prevalence of COVID‐19. Use of facemasks with high filtration efficiency or a negative COVID‐19 test before field surveys can reduce zoonotic risk by 65 to 88%.

Conservation Science and Practice↗
USGS2014

Global phylogeography of the avian malaria pathogen Plasmodium relictum based on MSP1 allelic diversity

Knowing the genetic variation that occurs in pathogen populations and how it is distributed across geographical areas is essential to understand parasite epidemiology, local patterns of virulence, and evolution of host-resistance. In addition, it is important to identify populations of pathogens that are evolutionarily independent and thus ‘free’ to adapt to hosts and environments. Here, we investigated genetic variation in the globally distributed, highly invasive avian malaria parasite Plasmodium relictum , which has several distinctive mitochondrial haplotyps (cyt b lineages, SGS1, GRW11 and GRW4). The phylogeography of P. relictum was accessed using the highly variable nuclear gene merozoite surface protein 1 (MSP1), a gene linked to the invasion biology of the parasite. We show that the lineage GRW4 is evolutionarily independent of GRW11 and SGS1 whereas GRW11 and SGS1 share MSP1 alleles and thus suggesting the presence of two distinct species (GRW4 versus SGS1 and GRW11). Further, there were significant differences in the global distribution of MSP1 alleles with differences between GRW4 alleles in the New and the Old World. For SGS1, a lineage formerly believed to have both tropical and temperate transmission, there were clear differences in MSP1 alleles transmitted in tropical Africa compared to the temperate regions of Europe and Asia. Further, we highlight the occurrence of multiple MSP1 alleles in GRW4 isolates from the Hawaiian Islands, where the parasite has contributed to declines and extinctions of endemic forest birds since it was introduced. This study stresses the importance of multiple independent loci for understanding patterns of transmission and evolutionary independence across avian malaria parasites.

Ecography↗
USGS2014

Limitations to estimating bacterial cross-speciestransmission using genetic and genomic markers: Inferences from simulation modeling

Cross‐species transmission (CST) of bacterial pathogens has major implications for human health, livestock, and wildlife management because it determines whether control actions in one species may have subsequent effects on other potential host species. The study of bacterial transmission has benefitted from methods measuring two types of genetic variation: variable number of tandem repeats (VNTRs) and single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs). However, it is unclear whether these data can distinguish between different epidemiological scenarios. We used a simulation model with two host species and known transmission rates (within and between species) to evaluate the utility of these markers for inferring CST. We found that CST estimates are biased for a wide range of parameters when based on VNTRs and a most parsimonious reconstructed phylogeny. However, estimations of CST rates lower than 5% can be achieved with relatively low bias using as low as 250 SNPs. CST estimates are sensitive to several parameters, including the number of mutations accumulated since introduction, stochasticity, the genetic difference of strains introduced, and the sampling effort. Our results suggest that, even with whole‐genome sequences, unbiased estimates of CST will be difficult when sampling is limited, mutation rates are low, or for pathogens that were recently introduced.

Evolutionary Applications↗
USGS2015

Will a warmer and wetter future cause extinction of native Hawaiian forest birds?

Isolation of the Hawaiian archipelago produced a highly endemic and unique avifauna. Avian malaria ( Plasmodium relictum ), an introduced mosquito-borne pathogen, is a primary cause of extinctions and declines of these endemic honeycreepers. Our research assesses how global climate change will affect future malaria risk and native bird populations. We used an epidemiological model to evaluate future bird-mosquito-malaria dynamics in response to alternative climate projections from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP). Climate changes during the second half of the century accelerate malaria transmission and cause a dramatic decline in bird abundance. Different temperature and precipitation patterns produce divergent trajectories where native birds persist with low malaria infection under a warmer and dryer projection (RCP4.5), but suffer high malaria infection and severe reductions under hot and dry (RCP8.5) or warm and wet (A1B) futures. We conclude that future global climate change will cause significant decreases in the abundance and diversity of remaining Hawaiian bird communities. Because these effects appear unlikely before mid-century, natural resource managers have time to implement conservation strategies to protect this unique avifauna from further decimation. Similar climatic drivers for avian and human malaria suggest that mitigation strategies for Hawai'i have broad application to human health.

Hawai'i↗
USGS2011

Forest species diversity reduces disease risk in a generalist plant pathogen invasion

Empirical evidence suggests that biodiversity loss can increase disease transmission, yet our understanding of the 'diversity-disease hypothesis' for generalist pathogens in natural ecosystems is limited. We used a landscape epidemiological approach to examine two scenarios regarding diversity effects on the emerging plant pathogen Phytophthora ramorum across a broad, heterogeneous ecoregion: (1) an amplification effect exists where disease risk is greater in areas with higher plant diversity due to the pathogen's wide host range, or (2) a dilution effect where risk is reduced with increasing diversity due to lower competency of alternative hosts. We found evidence for pathogen dilution, whereby disease risk was lower in sites with higher species diversity, after accounting for potentially confounding effects of host density and landscape heterogeneity. Our results suggest that although nearly all plants in the ecosystem are hosts, alternative hosts may dilute disease transmission by competent hosts, thereby buffering forest health from infectious disease.

Ecology Letters↗
USGS2011

Investigating and managing the rapid emergence of white-nose syndrome, a novel, fatal, infectious disease of hibernating bats

White-nose syndrome (WNS) is a fatal disease of bats that hibernate. The etiologic agent of WNS is the fungus Geomyces destructans , which infects the skin and wing membranes. Over 1 million bats in six species in eastern North America have died from WNS since 2006, and as a result several species of bats may become endangered or extinct. Information is lacking on the pathogenesis of G. destructans and WNS, WNS transmission and maintenance, individual and site factors that contribute to the probability of an outbreak of WNS, and spatial dynamics of WNS spread in North America. We considered how descriptive and analytical epidemiology could be used to fill these information gaps, including a four-step (modified) outbreak investigation, application of a set of criteria (Hill's) for assessing causation, compartment models of disease dynamics, and spatial modeling. We cataloged and critiqued adaptive-management options that have been either previously proposed for WNS or were helpful in addressing other emerging diseases of wild animals. These include an ongoing program of prospective surveillance of bats and hibernacula for WNS, treatment of individual bats, increasing population resistance to WNS (through vaccines, immunomodulators, or other methods), improving probability of survival from starvation and dehydration associated with WNS, modifying hibernacula environments to eliminate G. destructans , culling individuals or populations, controlling anthropogenic spread of WNS, conserving genetic diversity of bats, and educating the public about bats and bat conservation issues associated with WNS.

Conservation Biology↗
USGS2010

Avian malaria Plasmodium relictum in native Hawaiian forest birds: epizootiology and demographic impacts on ‵apapane Himatione sanguinea

The role of introduced avian malaria Plasmodium relictum in the decline and extinction of native Hawaiian forest birds has become a classic example of the potential effect of invasive diseases on biological diversity of naïve populations. However, empirical evidence describing the impact of avian malaria on fitness of Hawai‵i's endemic forest birds is limited, making it difficult to determine the importance of disease among the suite of potential limiting factors affecting the distribution and abundance of this threatened avifauna. We combined epidemiological force-of-infection with multistate capture––recapture models to evaluate a 7-year longitudinal study of avian malaria in ‵apapane, a relatively common native honeycreeper within mid-elevation Hawaiian forests. We found that malaria transmission was seasonal in this mid-elevation forest; transmission peaked during fall and during some years produced epizootic mortality events. Estimated annual mortality of hatch-year birds typically exceeded 50% and mortality of adults exceeded 25% during epizootics. The substantial impact of avian malaria on this relatively common native species demonstrates the key role this disease has played in the decline and extinction of Hawaiian forest birds.

Journal of Avian Biology↗
USGS2016

Potential distribution of the viral haemorrhagic septicaemia virus in the Great Lakes region

Viral haemorrhagic septicaemia virus (VHSV) genotype IVb has been responsible for large-scale fish mortality events in the Great Lakes of North America. Anticipating the areas of potential VHSV occurrence is key to designing epidemiological surveillance and disease prevention strategies in the Great Lakes basin. We explored the environmental features that could shape the distribution of VHSV, based on remote sensing and climate data via ecological niche modelling. Variables included temperature measured during the day and night, precipitation, vegetation, bathymetry, solar radiation and topographic wetness. VHSV occurrences were obtained from available reports of virus confirmation in laboratory facilities. We fit a Maxent model using VHSV-IVb reports and environmental variables under different parameterizations to identify the best model to determine potential VHSV occurrence based on environmental suitability. VHSV reports were generated from both passive and active surveillance. VHSV occurrences were most abundant near shore sites. We were, however, able to capture the environmental signature of VHSV based on the environmental variables employed in our model, allowing us to identify patterns of VHSV potential occurrence. Our findings suggest that VHSV is not at an ecological equilibrium and more areas could be affected, including areas not in close geographic proximity to past VHSV reports.

Great Lakes↗
USGS2020

Robust geographical determinants of infection prevalence and a contrasting latitudinal diversity gradient for haemosporidian parasites in Western Palearctic birds

Identifying robust environmental predictors of infection probability is central to forecasting and mitigating the ongoing impacts of climate change on vector‐borne disease threats. We applied phylogenetic hierarchical models to a data set of 2,171 Western Palearctic individual birds from 47 species to determine how climate and landscape variation influence infection probability for three genera of haemosporidian blood parasites ( Haemoproteus , Leucocytozoon , and Plasmodium ). Our comparative models found compelling evidence that birds in areas with higher vegetation density (captured by the normalized difference vegetation index [NDVI]) had higher likelihoods of carrying parasite infection. Magnitudes of this relationship were remarkably similar across parasite genera considering that these parasites use different arthropod vectors and are widely presumed to be epidemiologically distinct. However, we also uncovered key differences among genera that highlighted complexities in their climate responses. In particular, prevalences of Haemoproteus and Plasmodium showed strong but contrasting relationships with winter temperatures, supporting mounting evidence that winter warming is a key environmental filter impacting the dynamics of host‐parasite interactions. Parasite phylogenetic community diversities demonstrated a clear but contrasting latitudinal gradient, with Haemoproteus diversity increasing towards the equator and Leucocytozoon diversity increasing towards the poles. Haemoproteus diversity also increased in regions with higher vegetation density, supporting our evidence that summer vegetation density is important for structuring the distributions of these parasites. Ongoing variation in winter temperatures and vegetation characteristics will probably have far‐reaching consequences for the transmission and spread of vector‐borne diseases.

Molecular Ecology↗
USGS2021

Sarcoptic mange: An emerging panzootic in wildlife

Sarcoptic mange, a skin infestation caused by the mite Sarcoptes scabiei , is an emerging disease for some species of wildlife, potentially jeopardizing their welfare and conservation. Sarcoptes scabiei has a near-global distribution facilitated by its forms of transmission and use of a large diversity of host species (many of those with broad geographic distribution). In this review, we synthesize the current knowledge concerning the geographic and host taxonomic distribution of mange in wildlife, the epidemiological connections between species, and the potential threat of sarcoptic mange for wildlife conservation. Recent sarcoptic mange outbreaks in wildlife appear to demonstrate ongoing geographic spread, increase in the number of hosts and increased virulence. Sarcoptic mange has been reported in at least 12 orders, 39 families and 148 species of domestic and wild mammals, making it one of the most generalist ectoparasites of mammals. Taxonomically, the orders with most species found infested so far include Perissodactyla (67% species from the entire order), Artiodactyla (47%), and Diprotodontia (67% from this order). This suggests that new species from these mammal orders are likely to suffer cross-species transmission and be reported positive to sarcoptic mange as surveillance improves. We propose a new agenda for the study of sarcoptic mange in wildlife, including the study of the global phylogeography of S. scabiei , linkages between ecological host traits and sarcoptic mange susceptibility, immunology of individuals and species, development of control strategies in wildlife outbreaks and the effects of global environmental change in the sarcoptic mange system. The ongoing transmission globally and sustained spread among areas and wildlife species make sarcoptic mange an emerging panzootic in wildlife. A better understanding of sarcoptic mange could illuminate the aspects of ecological and evolutionary drivers in cross-species transmission for many emerging diseases.

Transboundary and Emerging Diseases↗
USGS2016

Role for migratory wild birds in the global spread of avian influenza H5N8

Avian influenza viruses affect both poultry production and public health. A subtype H5N8 (clade 2.3.4.4) virus, following an outbreak in poultry in South Korea in January 2014, rapidly spread worldwide in 2014–2015. Our analysis of H5N8 viral sequences, epidemiological investigations, waterfowl migration, and poultry trade showed that long-distance migratory birds can play a major role in the global spread of avian influenza viruses. Further, we found that the hemagglutinin of clade 2.3.4.4 virus was remarkably promiscuous, creating reassortants with multiple neuraminidase subtypes. Improving our understanding of the circumpolar circulation of avian influenza viruses in migratory waterfowl will help to provide early warning of threats from avian influenza to poultry, and potentially human, health.

Science↗
USGS2023

Exchange of carbapenem-resistant Escherichia coli Sequence Type 38 intercontinentally and among wild bird, human, and environmental niches

Carbapenem-resistant Enterobacteriaceae (CRE) are a global threat to human health and are increasingly being isolated from nonclinical settings. OXA-48-producing Escherichia coli sequence type 38 (ST38) is the most frequently reported CRE type in wild birds and has been detected in gulls or storks in North America, Europe, Asia, and Africa. The epidemiology and evolution of CRE in wildlife and human niches, however, remains unclear. We compared wild bird origin E. coli ST38 genome sequences generated by our research group and publicly available genomic data derived from other hosts and environments to (i) understand the frequency of intercontinental dispersal of E. coli ST38 clones isolated from wild birds, (ii) more thoroughly measure the genomic relatedness of carbapenem-resistant isolates from gulls sampled in Turkey and Alaska, USA, using long-read whole-genome sequencing and assess the spatial dissemination of this clone among different hosts, and (iii) determine whether ST38 isolates from humans, environmental water, and wild birds have different core or accessory genomes (e.g., antimicrobial resistance genes, virulence genes, plasmids) which might elucidate bacterial or gene exchange among niches. Our results suggest that E. coli ST38 strains, including those resistant to carbapenems, are exchanged between humans and wild birds, rather than separately maintained populations within each niche. Furthermore, despite close genetic similarity among OXA-48-producing E. coli ST38 clones from gulls in Alaska and Turkey, intercontinental dispersal of ST38 clones among wild birds is uncommon. Interventions to mitigate the dissemination of antimicrobial resistance throughout the environment (e.g., as exemplified by the acquisition of carbapenem resistance by birds) may be warranted.

Applied and Environmental Microbiology↗