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Simulation of flow and habitat conditions under ice, Cache la Poudre River - January 2006

The U.S. Forest Service authorizes the occupancy and use of Forest Service lands by various projects, including water storage facilities, under the Federal Land Policy and Management Act. Federal Land Policy and Management Act permits can be renewed at the end of their term. The U.S. Forest Service analyzes the environmental effects for the initial issuance or renewal of a permit and the terms and conditions (for example, mitigations plans) contained in the permit for the facilities. The U.S. Forest Service is preparing an environmental impact statement (EIS) to determine the conditions for the occupancy and use for Long Draw Reservoir on National Forest System administered lands. The scope of the EIS includes evaluating current operations and effects to fish habitat of an ongoing winter release of 0.283 m3 /s (10 ft3 /s) from headwater reservoirs as part of a previously issued permit. The field conditions observed during this study included this release. The U.S. Forest Service entered into an interagency agreement (05-IA-11021000-030) with the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Fort Collins Science Center to perform analysis of fish habitat and flow relationships in the Cache la Poudre River during winter ice-over conditions using a twodimensional hydrodynamic model. The U.S. Forest Service selected the Fort Collins Science Center for this task because of their expertise in developing two-dimensional hydraulic models for habitat modeling applications. This report transmits model results to the U.S. Forest Service to analyze the effects of alternative flow scenarios at a site on the mainstem Cache la Poudre River in Larimer County, Colorado, near Kinikinik (40° 42' 44.16" N. lat, 105° 44' 30.70" W. log), as shown in figure 1. It will be used in pending environmental analyses and decisions for the occupancy and use of the Arapaho-Roosevelt National Forest by water storage facilities. The water management scenarios of interest in this study are related to releasing water from Chambers and Barnes Meadows Reservoirs, based on the assumption that winter flow augmentation can increase potential fish habitat. Figure 2 shows the relationship between Chambers, Barnes Meadows, and Long Draw Reservoirs. At the time this study was proposed, existing flow simulation results showed that the channel constraints imposed by existing artificial low-head dikes would have little or no effect on the hydrodynamics of the river at the low flow levels that were to be evaluated. The Kinikinik study site contains deep pools, riffles, and runs. This diversity of habitat types made it ideal for assessing the effects of altered flow on fish habitat under ice in the main stem Cache la Poudre River. Thus, the Kinikinik site was selected for this study of winter habitat conditions. The preexisting topographic and hydrologic data collected at this site enabled data collection efforts for this study to focus on describing streamflow and ice cover during the winter months. A two-dimensional hydrodynamic model, River2D (Steffler and Blackburn, 2002), was used to simulate flow conditions under the ice cover that was observed January 24, 2006. The objectives of this study are (1) to describe the extent and thickness of ice cover, (2) simulate depth and velocity under ice at the study site for observed and reduced flows, and (3) to quantify fish habitat in this portion of the mainstem Cache la Poudre River for the current winter release schedule as well as for similar conditions without the 0.283 m 3 /s winter release.

Colorado

Scoping decision-maker needs and science availability to support regional natural capital accounting in the U.S. Colorado River Basin

Natural capital accounting has the potential to yield important policy insights at multiple scales, but there remains a disconnect between regional-scale natural capital accounts and their use for informing policy. In this paper, we propose a roadmap that could lead to the creation of policy-relevant regional accounts, with steps split across an initial scoping phase and a subsequent development phase. We demonstrate the scoping steps in action with an application to the Colorado River Basin (“Basin”), a large watershed in the southwestern United States (U.S.) that has faced aridification and substantial high-profile tradeoffs around the use of its water and other natural resources. Drawing on prior U.S. Geological Survey science co-production efforts, we conducted a series of eight discussion sessions with 41 scientists and science representatives whose work is relevant to Basin water, riparian and riverine ecosystems, upland ecosystems and energy and minerals. We summarise participants' thoughts on key topics and economic linkages, their insights and questions of interest and their recommendations on existing scientific data sources and gaps. We evaluate the suitability of the available data for construction of System of Environmental-Economic Accounting (SEEA) Central Framework and SEEA Ecosystem Accounting accounts, including those for land, water, forests, energy and minerals and ecosystems (covering extent, condition and ecosystem services). We present a series of lessons learned during the scoping phase, as well as lessons that could be relevant for future practitioners engaging in the development phase. The information can help guide the development of timely and relevant regional-scale environmental-economic accounts in the U.S. and beyond.

Arizona, California, Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico,

The road to Yucca Mountain—Evolution of nuclear waste disposal in the United States

The generation of electricity by nuclear power and the manufacturing of atomic weapons have created a large amount of spent nuclear fuel and high-level radioactive waste. There is a world-wide consensus that the best way to protect mankind and the environment is to dispose of this waste in a deep geologic repository. Initial efforts focused on salt as the best medium for disposal, but the heat generated by the radioactive waste led many earth scientists to examine other rock types. In 1976, the director of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) wrote to the U.S. Energy Research and Development Administration (ERDA), predecessor agency of the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), suggesting that there were several favorable environments at the Nevada Test Site (NTS), and that the USGS already had extensive background information on the NTS. Later, in a series of communications and one publication, the USGS espoused the favorability of the thick unsaturated zone. After the passage of the Nuclear Waste Policy Act (1982), the DOE compiled a list of nine favorable sites and settled on three to be characterized. In 1987, as the costs of characterizing three sites ballooned, Congress amended the Nuclear Waste Policy Act directing the DOE to focus only on Yucca Mountain in Nevada, with the proviso that if anything unfavorable was discovered, work would stop immediately. The U.S. DOE, the U.S. DOE national laboratories, and the USGS developed more than 100 detailed plans to study various earth-science aspects of Yucca Mountain and the surrounding area, as well as materials studies and engineering projects needed for a mined geologic repository. The work, which cost more than 10 billion dollars and required hundreds of man-years of work, culminated in a license application submitted to the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) in 2008.

Environmental & Engineering Geoscience

Effects of housing density and cage floor space on C57BL/6J mice

The Guide for the Care and Use of Laboratory Animals (the Guide) is widely accepted as the housing standard by most Institutional Animal Care and Use Committees. The recommendations are based on best professional judgment rather than experimental data. Current efforts are directed toward replacing these guidelines with data-driven, species-appropriate standards. Our studies were undertaken to determine the optimum housing density for C57BL/6J mice, the most commonly used inbred mouse strain. Four-week-old mice were housed for 8 weeks at four densities (the recommended ???12 in2 [ca. 77.4 cm 2]/mouse down to 5.6 in2 [ca. 36.1 cm2]/mouse) in three cage types with various amounts of floor space. Housing density did not affect a variety of physiologic parameters but did affect certain micro-environmental parameters, although these remained within accepted ranges. A second study was undertaken housing C57BL/6J mice with as little as 3.2 in2/mouse (ca. 20.6 cm2). The major effect was elevated ammonia concentrations that exceeded limits acceptable in the workplace at increased housing densities; however, the nasal passages and eyeballs of the mice remained microscopically normal. On the basis of these results, we conclude that C57BL/6J mice as large as 29 g may be housed with 5.6 in2 of floor space per mouse. This area is approximately half the floor space recommended in the Guide. The role of the Guide is to ensure that laboratory animals are well treated and housed in a species-appropriate manner. Our data suggest that current policies could be altered in order to provide the optimal habitation conditions matched to this species' social needs. Copyright 2004 by the American Association for Laboratory Animal Science.

Comparative Medicine

Public-policy issues associated with the SAFRR Tsunami Scenario

The SAFRR (Science Application for Risk Reduction) tsunami scenario simulates a tsunami generated by a hypothetical magnitude 9.1 earthquake that occurs offshore of the Alaska Peninsula (Kirby and others, 2013). In addition to the work performed by the authors on public-policy issues associated with the SAFRR tsunami scenario, this section of the scenario also reflects the policy discussions of the State of California’s Tsunami Policy Work Group, a voluntary advisory body formed in October 2011, which operates under the California Natural Resources Agency (CNRA), Department of Conservation, and is charged with identifying, evaluating, and making recommendations to resolve issues that are preventing full and effective implementation of tsunami hazard mitigation and risk reduction throughout California’s coastal communities. It also presents the analyses of plans and hazard policies of California’s coastal counties, incorporated cities, and major ports performed by the staff of the California Geological Survey (CGS) and Lauren Prehoda, Office of Environmental and Government Affairs, California Department of Conservation. It also draws on the policy framework and assessment prepared for the ARkStorm Pacific Coast winter storm and catastrophic flooding (Topping and others, 2010).

Open-File Report

USGS Arctic Science Strategy

The United States is one of eight Arctic nations responsible for the stewardship of a polar region undergoing dramatic environmental, social, and economic changes. Although warming and cooling cycles have occurred over millennia in the Arctic region, the current warming trend is unlike anything recorded previously and is affecting the region faster than any other place on Earth, bringing dramatic reductions in sea ice extent, altered weather, and thawing permafrost. Implications of these changes include rapid coastal erosion threatening villages and critical infrastructure, potentially significant effects on subsistence activities and cultural resources, changes to wildlife habitat, increased greenhouse-gas emissions from thawing permafrost, threat of invasive species, and opening of the Arctic Ocean to oil and gas exploration and increased shipping. The Arctic science portfolio of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and its response to climate-related changes focuses on landscapescale ecosystem and natural resource issues and provides scientific underpinning for understanding the physical processes that shape the Arctic. The science conducted by the USGS informs the Nation's resource management policies and improves the stewardship of the Arctic Region.

Fact Sheet

An economic value of remote-sensing information—Application to agricultural production and maintaining groundwater quality

Does remote-sensing information provide economic benefits to society, and can a value be assigned to those benefits? Can resource management and policy decisions be better informed by coupling past and present Earth observations with groundwater nitrate measurements? Using an integrated assessment approach, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) applied an established conceptual framework to answer these questions, as well as to estimate the value of information (VOI) for remote-sensing imagery. The approach uses moderate-resolution land-imagery (MRLI) data from the Landsat and Advanced Wide Field Sensor satellites that has been classified by the National Agricultural Statistics Service into the Cropland Data Layer (CDL). Within the constraint of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's public health threshold for potable groundwater resources, the USGS modeled the relation between a population of the CDL's land uses and dynamic nitrate (NO3-) contamination of aquifers in a case study region in northeastern Iowa. Employing various multiscaled, multitemporal geospatial datasets with MRLI to maximize the value of agricultural production, the approach develops and uses multiple environmental science models to address dynamic nitrogen loading and transport at specified distances from specific sites (wells) and at landscape scales (for example, across 35 counties and two aquifers). In addition to the ecosystem service of potable groundwater, this effort focuses on the use of MRLI for the management of the major land uses in the study region-the production of corn and soybeans, which can impact groundwater quality. Derived methods and results include (1) economic and dynamic nitrate-pollution models, (2) probabilities of the survival of groundwater, and (3) a VOI for remote sensing. For the northeastern Iowa study region, the marginal benefit of the MRLI VOI (in 2010 dollars) is $858 million ±$197 million annualized, which corresponds to a net present value of $38.1 billion ±$8.8 billion for that flow of benefits in perpetuity. Given that these economic estimates are derived from one case study in a part of only one State, the estimates provide a lower estimate related to the potential value of the Landsat Data Continuity Mission.

Professional Paper

Using the value of information to improve conservation decision making

Conservation decisions are challenging, not only because they often involve difficult conflicts among outcomes that people value, but because our understanding of the natural world and our effects on it is fraught with uncertainty. Value of Information (VoI) methods provide an approach for understanding and managing uncertainty from the standpoint of the decision maker. These methods are commonly used in other fields (e.g., economics, public health) and are increasingly used in biodiversity conservation. This decision analytical approach can identify the best management alternative to select where the effectiveness of interventions is uncertain, and can help to decide when to act and when to delay action until after further research. We review the use of VoI in the environmental domain, reflect on the need for greater uptake of VoI, particularly for strategic conservation planning, and suggest promising areas for new research. We also suggest common reporting standards as a means of increasing the leverage of this powerful tool. The environmental science, ecology and biodiversity categories of the Web of Knowledge were searched using the terms ‘Value of Information,’ ‘Expected Value of Perfect Information,’ and the abbreviation ‘EVPI.’ Google Scholar was searched with the same terms, and additionally the terms decision and biology, biodiversity conservation, fish, or ecology. We identified 1225 papers from these searches. Included studies were limited to those that show an application of VoI in biodiversity conservation rather than simply describing the method. All examples of use of VOI were summarised regarding the application of VoI, the management objectives, the uncertainties, models used, how the objectives were measured, and the type of VoI. While the use of VoI appears to be on the increase in biodiversity conservation, the reporting of results is highly variable, which can make it difficult to understand the decision context and which uncertainties were considered. Moreover, it was unclear if, and how, the papers informed management and policy interventions, which is why we suggest a range of reporting standards that would aid the use of VoI. The use of VoI in conservation settings is at an early stage. There are opportunities for broader applications, not only for species-focussed management problems, but also for setting local or global research priorities for biodiversity conservation, making funding decisions, or designing or improving protected area networks and management. The long-term benefits of applying VoI methods to biodiversity conservation include a more structured and decision-focused allocation of resources to research.

Biological Reviews

Economic, land use, and ecosystem services impacts of Rwanda's Green Growth Strategy: An application of the IEEM+ESM platform

We develop and link the Integrated Economic-Environmental Modeling (IEEM) Platform to ecosystem services modeling (ESM). The IEEM+ESM Platform is an innovative decision-making framework for exploring complex public policy goals and elucidating synergies and trade-offs between alternative policy portfolios. The IEEM+ESM approach is powerful in its ability to shed light on (i) change in land use and ecosystem services driven by public policy and the supply and demand responses of businesses and households; and (ii) impacts on standard economic indicators of concern to Ministries of Finance such as gross domestic product and employment, as well as changes in wealth and ecosystem services. The IEEM+ESM approach is being adopted rapidly and by the end of 2020, IEEM+ESM Platforms will be implemented for about 25 countries. To demonstrate the insights generated by the IEEM+ESM approach, we apply it to the analysis of alternative green growth strategies in Rwanda, a country that has made strong progress in reducing poverty and enhancing economic growth in the last 15 years. The case of Rwanda is particularly compelling as it faces intense pressure on its natural capital base and ecosystem services, already with the highest population density in Africa, which is projected to double by 2050. In applying IEEM+ESM and comparing the outcomes of Rwanda’s green growth policies, increasing fertilization of agricultural crops shows the largest economic gains but also trade-offs in environmental quality reflected through higher nutrient export and reduced water quality. Combining crop fertilization with forest plantations better balances critical ecosystem services and their role in underpinning economic development as Rwanda progresses toward its target of middle-income status by 2035. This application to Rwanda’s green growth strategy demonstrates the value-added of the IEEM+ESM approach in generating results that speak to both economic outcomes and impacts on market and non-market ecosystem services.

Science of the Total Environment

Coastal sensitivity to sea level rise— A focus on the Mid-Atlantic Region

This Synthesis and Assessment Product (SAP), developed as part of the U.S. Climate Change Science Program, examines potential effects of sea-level rise from climate change during the twenty-first century, with a focus on the mid-Atlantic coast of the United States. Using scientific literature and policy-related documents, the SAP describes the physical environments; potential changes to coastal environments, wetlands, and vulnerable species; societal impacts and implications of sea-level rise; decisions that may be sensitive to sea-level rise; opportunities for adaptation; and institutional barriers to adaptation. The SAP also outlines the policy context in the mid-Atlantic region and describes the implications of sea-level rise impacts for other regions of the United States. Finally, this SAP discusses ways natural and social science research can improve understanding and prediction of potential impacts to aid planning and decision making. Projections of sea-level rise for the twenty-first century vary widely, ranging from several centimeters to more than a meter. Rising sea level can inundate low areas and increase flooding, coastal erosion, wetland loss, and saltwater intrusion into estuaries and freshwater aquifers. Existing elevation data for the mid-Atlantic United States do not provide the degree of confidence needed for local decision making. Systematic nationwide collection of high-resolution elevation data would improve the ability to conduct detailed assessments in support of planning. The coastal zone is dynamic and the response of coastal areas to sea-level rise is more complex than simple inundation. Much of the United States consists of coastal environments and landforms such as barrier islands and wetlands that will respond to sea-level rise by changing shape, size, or position. The combined effects of sea-level rise and other climate change factors such as storms may cause rapid and irreversible coastal change. All these changes will affect coastal habitats and species. Increasing population and development in coastal areas also affects the ability of natural ecosystems to adjust to sea-level rise. Coastal communities and property owners have responded to coastal hazards by erecting shore protection structures, elevating land and buildings, or relocating inland. Accelerated sea-level rise would increase the costs and environmental impacts of these responses. Shoreline armoring can eliminate the land along the shore to which the public has access; beach nourishment projects often increase access to the shore. Preparing for sea-level rise can be justified in many cases, because the cost of preparing now is small compared to the cost of reacting later. Examples include wetland protection, flood insurance, longlived infrastructure, and coastal land-use planning. Nevertheless, preparing for sea-level rise has been the exception rather than the rule. Most coastal institutions were based on the implicit assumption that sea level and shorelines are stable. Efforts to plan for sea-level rise can be thwarted by several institutional biases, including government policies that encourage coastal development, flood insurance maps that do not consider sea-level rise, federal policies that prefer shoreline armoring over soft shore protection, and lack of plans delineating which areas would be protected or not as sea level rises. The prospect of accelerated sea-level rise and increased vulnerability in coastal regions underscores the immediate need for improving our scientific understanding of and ability to predict the effects of sea-level rise on natural systems and society. These actions, combined with development of decision support tools for taking adaptive actions and an effective public education program, can lessen the economic and environmental impacts of sea-level rise.

Report

Twenty-five essential research questions to inform the protection and restoration of freshwater biodiversity

Freshwater biodiversity is declining at an unprecedented rate. Freshwater conservationists and environmental managers have enough evidence to demonstrate that action must not be delayed but have insufficient evidence to identify those actions that will be most effective in reversing the current trend. Here, the focus is on identifying essential research topics that, if addressed, will contribute directly to restoring freshwater biodiversity through supporting ‘bending the curve’ actions (i.e. those actions leading to the recovery of freshwater biodiversity, not simply deceleration of the current downward trend). The global freshwater research and management community was asked to identify unanswered research questions that could address knowledge gaps and barriers associated with ‘bending the curve’ actions. The resulting list was refined into six themes and 25 questions. Although context-dependent and potentially limited in global reach, six overarching themes were identified: (i) learning from successes and failures; (ii) improving current practices; (iii) balancing resource needs; (iv) rethinking built environments; (v) reforming policy and investments; and (vi) enabling transformative change. Bold, efficient, science-based actions are necessary to reverse biodiversity loss. We believe that conservation actions will be most effective when supported by sound evidence, and that research and action must complement one another. These questions are intended to guide global freshwater researchers and conservation practitioners, identify key projects and signal research needs to funders and governments. Our questions can act as springboards for multidisciplinary and multisectoral collaborations that will improve the management and restoration of freshwater biodiversity.

Aquatic Conservation: Marine and Freshwater Ecosys

Accuracy, accessibility, and institutional capacity shape the utility of habitat models for managing and conserving rare plants on western public lands

Public lands are often managed for multiple uses ranging from energy development to rare plant conservation. Habitat models can help land managers assess and mitigate potential effects of projects on rare plants, but it is unclear how models are currently being used. Our goal was to better understand how staff in the Bureau of Land Management currently use habitat models to inform their decisions, and perceived challenges and benefits associated with that use. We first examined litigation documents to determine whether the agency has been challenged on its use of data for rare plants and found no relevant legal challenges. Second, we analyzed model use in National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) documents and found no clear citations of habitat models. Finally, we conducted interviews with agency staff who analyze potential effects of proposed actions on rare plants in NEPA documents. The primary challenges interviewees faced in using models related to data organization and access, model quality and accuracy, and institutional capacity. Interviewees believed models could be used more to inform decisions and actions to conserve rare plants and rare plant habitat on public lands and recommended improving staff access to models, creating models for additional species, and addressing staffing limitations.

Arizona, California, Colorado, New Mexico, Utah, W

Using science to inform management and improve biological conservation in the Desert Renewable Energy Conservation Plan

The Mojave and Colorado deserts of southern California have been viewed as vast wilderness since early exploration and, until recently, were considered the most untrammeled among western landscapes in the contiguous lower 48 states (United States Department of Agriculture 1893; Leu et al. 2008). However, the factors that define desert wilderness—small human population, temperature differentials that create unrelenting winds, low rainfall, and cloudless skies—are attractive for renewable energy development. The demand for clean, renewable energy is a national and regional priority and has increased demand for large-scale solar and wind farms in the deserts, particularly in California. The need to balance these national and state energy priorities with existing natural resource and land conservation policies has emerged as a landscape-scale land-use planning initiative known as the Desert Renewable Energy Conservation Plan (DRECP). One of the primary goals for the DRECP was to establish Development Focus Areas (DFAs) where high-quality renewable energy potential of up to 20 gigawatts (GW) could be implemented by the year 2040. DFAs were designed to provide expedited project approvals in locations where environmental impacts could be managed and mitigated, and proximity to transmission corridors provides for the efficient dissemination of energy to users. The DRECP also aims to identify protections for natural resources, recreation, and cultural resources. This plan identifies 37 covered species that receive special consideration in the DRECP. Among the special considerations are climate adaptation requirements, such as the ability to maintain population connectivity through wildlife corridors, while protecting several special recreation areas and 32,000 known cultural sites that are dispersed throughout the region. We evaluated several particular aspects of the DRECP design and process. In particular, we examined land designations in relation to published studies on Mohave ground squirrel (Xerospermophilus mohavensis) habitat and genetic diversity patterns of a suite of broadly distributed desert animal species. The squirrel and its habitat are of particular interest because the entire range of the squirrel is encompassed by the DRECP. We describe the framework of the DRECP, provide a case study of how the DRECP accommodates the needs of the Mohave ground squirrel and its habitat, illustrate DFAs in relation to the genetic diversity of a broad range of terrestrial biota, and conclude with some observations on how land-use issues were resolved across the landscape under various scenarios.

Conference Paper

Selenium in irrigated agricultural areas of the western United States

Selenium was recognized as an important aquatic contaminant following the identification of widespread deformities in waterfowl at the agricultural drainage evaporation ponds of the Kesterson Reservoir (California) in 1983. Since then, California has been the focal point for global research and management of Se contamination. We analyzed the history and current developments in science, policy, and management of irrigation-induced Se contamination in California. In terms of management, we evaluated the effects of improvements in the design of local attenuation methods (drainage reuse and evaporation ponds) in conjunction with the development of programs for Se load reductions at the regional scale (namely the Grassland Bypass Project). In terms of policy, the USEPA is currently working on site-specific water quality criteria for the San Francisco Bay Delta that may be a landmark for future legislation on Se in natural water bodies. We provide a critical analysis of this approach and discuss challenges and opportunities in expanding it to other locations such as the Salton Sea. Management lessons learned in California and the novel policy approach may help prevent future events of Se contamination.

Journal of Environmental Quality

National Park Service Vegetation Mapping Inventory Program: Jean Lafitte National Historical Park and Preserve Vegetation Mapping Project

The National Park Service, Natural Resource Stewardship and Science office in Fort Collins, Colorado, publishes a range of reports that address natural resource topics. These reports are of interest and applicability to a broad audience in the National Park Service and others in natural resource management, including scientists, conservation and environmental constituencies, and the public. The Natural Resource Report Series is used to disseminate comprehensive information and analysis about natural resources and related topics concerning lands managed by the National Park Service. The series supports the advancement of science, informed decision-making, and the achievement of the National Park Service mission. The series also provides a forum for presenting lengthier results that may not be accepted by publications with page limitations. All manuscripts in the series receive the appropriate level of peer review to ensure that the information is scientifically credible, technically accurate, appropriately written for the intended audience, and designed and published in a professional manner. This report received formal peer review by subject-matter experts whose background and expertise put them on par technically and scientifically with the authors of the information. The peer review was led according to the Fundamental Science Practices of the U.S. Geological Survey. Views, statements, findings, conclusions, recommendations, and data in this report do not necessarily reflect views and policies of the National Park Service, U.S. Department of the Interior. Mention of trade names or commercial products does not constitute endorsement or recommendation for use by the U.S. Government. This report is available in digital format from the Gulf Coast Network website and the Natural Resource Publications Management website.

Louisiana

Modelling regional land change scenarios to assess land abandonment and reforestation dynamics in the Pyrenees (France)

Over the last decades and centuries, European mountain landscapes have experienced substantial transformations. Natural and anthropogenic LULC changes (land use and land cover changes), especially agro-pastoral activities, have directly influenced the spatial organization and composition of European mountain landscapes. For the past sixty years, natural reforestation has been occurring due to a decline in both agricultural production activities and rural population. Stakeholders, to better anticipate future changes, need spatially and temporally explicit models to identify areas at risk of land change and possible abandonment. This paper presents an integrated approach combining forecasting scenarios and a LULC changes simulation model to assess where LULC changes may occur in the Pyrenees Mountains, based on historical LULC trends and a range of future socio-economic drivers. The proposed methodology considers local specificities of the Pyrenean valleys, sub-regional climate and topographical properties, and regional economic policies. Results indicate that some regions are projected to face strong abandonment, regardless of the scenario conditions. Overall, high rates of change are associated with administrative regions where land productivity is highly dependent on socio-economic drivers and climatic and environmental conditions limit intensive (agricultural and/or pastoral) production and profitability. The combination of the results for the four scenarios allows assessments of where encroachment (e.g. colonization by shrublands) and reforestation are the most probable. This assessment intends to provide insight into the potential future development of the Pyrenees to help identify areas that are the most sensitive to change and to guide decision makers to help their management decisions.

Journal of Mountain Science

Human perturbations to mercury in global rivers

Mercury compounds are potent neurotoxins that pose threats to human health, primarily through fish consumption. Rivers, critical for drinking water and food supply, have seen rapid increases in mercury concentrations and export to coastal margins since the Industrial Revolution (~1850). However, patterns of these changes remain understudied, limiting assessments of environmental policies. Here, we develop a global model to simulate preindustrial riverine total mercury and assess human perturbations by comparing it to present-day conditions. We find that global rivers transported ~390 megagrams annually of mercury to the oceans in the preindustrial era, with spatial variability. Human activities have elevated riverine mercury budgets by two to three times in the present day. Establishing a baseline riverine mercury level, our findings reveal rapid responses of riverine mercury to human perturbations and could be used to inform targets for global riverine mercury restoration. Total riverine mercury concentrations could also be used as indicators to comprehensively understand the effectiveness of mercury pollution governance.

Science Advances

Advances and applications of Unoccupied Aerial Systems (UAS) research in landscape ecology

Landscape ecologists have long depended on satellite and aerial remote sensing to address questions about landscape pattern and process, structure, and change (Foody 2023 ). Unoccupied aerial systems/vehicles (UAS/UAV, a.k.a. drones) technology is becoming an increasingly popular research tool in environmental sciences allowing scientists to generate low-cost, high-quality, and high-resolution imagery on demand that can be tailored to specific research questions. While satellite data are of a fixed resolution and temporal interval, UAS offer researchers control and flexibility to design studies and collect data at resolutions and scales that provide ecologically relevant information at finer spatial resolutions (e.g., < 30 cm) than what is currently available from satellite platforms (typically > 3m), thus helping capture objects such as individual plant canopies, micro-topography, and individual animals. Unlike satellites with fixed orbits, UAS can be deployed at more optimal temporal frequencies for ecological monitoring. We organized the special collection “Advances and Applications of Unoccupied Aerial Systems (UAS) Research in Landscape Ecology” to showcase the many ways that UAS tools and technologies are currently applied to advance landscape ecological research. When we announced the collection in 2023, only 11 papers published in the journal Landscape Ecology used UAS data, which was a notably small number compared to many other general ecology, environmental science and remote sensing journals. In an attempt to understand why UAS were not more widely used in landscape ecology and provide possible solutions, we published a review article (Villarreal et al. 2025) that identified the challenges, knowledge gaps, and obstacles for the adoption of UAS technologies in landscape ecology research. The main issues we identified include: (1) an abundance of UAS methods papers in the existing literature, with comparatively few studies demonstrating how UAS can be applied to address ecological questions; (2) a perceived scale mismatch between the geographic extent of UAS data collection (local) compared to larger study areas (landscapes) and a need to design robust scaling approaches to connect fine-scale UAS data with broader ecological patterns; and (3) a need for improved integration of UAS data with other commonly used remote sensing datasets including historical high resolution aerial imagery. Additionally, researchers new to UAS remote sensing may be discouraged or overwhelmed by the general lack of scientific consensus and standardized protocols for typical tasks such as data collection, vegetation classification, and change detection, as well as restrictive and/or confusing policy, regulatory, and legal issues surrounding UAS operations (Villarreal et al. 2025).

Landscape Ecology