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Map of topographic lineaments interpreted as recent surface ruptures along the Bennett Valley and Southern Maacama Fault Zones, Sonoma County, California

This study documents lidar-illuminated topographic lineaments interpreted as evidence of recent surface fault ruptures and surface ruptures related to distributed deformation along the Bennett Valley Fault Zone and the southernmost Maacama Fault Zone in the northern San Francisco Bay area (fig. 1, on map sheet). Together, these fault zones form a structural connection across a right stepover between the main Maacama Fault Zone and the Rodgers Creek Fault, overlapping principal strands of the San Andreas plate boundary system north of San Francisco Bay (figs. 1, 2, on map sheet) that accommodate about a quarter of the ~40 millimeters per year of regional dextral tectonic slip (Parsons and others, 2013). Although much of the Bennett Valley Fault Zone is seismically active (McLaughlin and others, 2012; Sowers and others, 2010), only the north end of the fault zone (the “Spring Valley strand,” indicated on southern map panel of map sheet and labeled “D” in figure 2, on map sheet) was previously known to have youthful geomorphic expression and to displace Holocene deposits (McLaughlin and others, 2008; Sowers and others, 2010; Sowers and others, 2016). Holocene activity along the length of the Bennett Valley Fault Zone and southernmost Maacama Fault Zone, with possible implications for rupture propagation, continuity, and slip transfer, had not been identified. However, fault splays that project eastward from the Rodgers Creek Fault have been mapped and hypothesized to accommodate slip transfer to the Bennett Valley Fault Zone (Hecker and Randolph Loar, 2018). The generally subtle and distributed nature of surface-rupture evidence along the Bennett Valley and southernmost Maacama Fault Zones, and extensive vegetation cover, had left recent faulting previously unmapped along most of the zone. The map presented here represents a new compilation of inferred surface-rupture features detected using high-resolution topographic lidar data from an airborne lidar survey of Sonoma County, California (OpenTopography, 2014). These data, which enable subtle topographic features to be discerned, indicate that recent (likely Holocene) surface ruptures extend throughout the Bennett Valley and southernmost Maacama Fault Zones. The rupture-lineament map was created using a GIS (geographic information system) framework and is included herein as an image map at a scale of 1:36,000 and as digital datasets (included as supplemental information to this report). The mapping is intended to lay the groundwork for future studies designed to better characterize how plate-boundary slip is accommodated on this important and complex system of faults.

California

Mineral chemistry perspective on remobilization of stored magma at Kamakai'a Hills, Southwest Rift Zone of Kilauea, Island of Hawai'i, USA

Differentiated magmas stored in the rift zones of Kīlauea have received more attention in recent years following eruption of andesite during the early phase of 2018 lower East Rift Zone activity. Despite this growing interest, some of the most voluminous eruptions of differentiated rift zone magmas remain poorly studied. One such eruption, and the most voluminous exposed differentiated flow field at Kīlauea, is the Kamakaiʻa Hills. This eruption took place in the Southwest Rift Zone of Kīlauea, a region that is hypothesized to contain a long-lived rift zone reservoir. The Kamakaiʻa Hills flow field encompasses >250 × 10 6 m 3 of basaltic andesite and basalt compositions with a mineral assemblage of orthopyroxene + clinopyroxene + plagioclase during its early ʻaʻā phase and clinopyroxene + plagioclase + olivine during its late pāhoehoe phase. To better understand storage conditions and magma accumulation, this study focuses on major, minor, and trace elements from the mineral assemblage present within the early ʻaʻā and late pāhoehoe phases. The diversity of clinopyroxene and plagioclase compositions within the early ʻaʻā and late pāhoehoe phases, as well as diverse compositions of plagioclase and orthopyroxene within the early ʻaʻā phase, suggest multiple magma bodies and limited pre-eruption magma mixing within the broader Kamakaiʻa Hills reservoir. Oscillatory zoning patterns (particularly in clinopyroxene) imply processes such as recharge events, magma mixing or mingling, or convection within a differentially cooling, chemically stratified reservoir over protracted time intervals, whereas only limited resorbed mineral textures indicate incomplete mixing of heat and chemically distinct magmas during the dike intrusion that triggered the eruption. Mineral-mineral and mineral-melt thermobarometry indicate predominantly shallow (≤2.5 km depth) crustal storage conditions of the cooled, differentiated magma (∼1100 °C and cooler for the basaltic andesites) to hotter temperatures for the basalts (all >1100 °C). Despite the known large standard errors estimated for mineral-melt and mineral-mineral barometry (10s to >100 MPa), the calculated pressures and depths broadly correspond with earthquake swarm depths beneath the Kamakaiʻa Hills, and drill core and fluid inclusion barometry storage depths of differentiated magmas within the lower East Rift Zone. The Kamakaiʻa Hills differentiated magmas have H 2 O contents (∼0.5 wt%, using plagioclase-melt hygrometry) equivalent to typical Kīlauea basalts. Our data and interpretations demonstrate a complex, long-lived rift zone storage system that consisted of multiple magma bodies and was mobilized into eruption through intrusion of a hotter and more primitive summit-derived (uprift) magma.

Hawaii

Decadal shifts in groundwater age detected by environmental tracers across California, USA

Groundwater age offers important insight into recharge, storage, and contamination risk. Although models predict age changes can be driven by pumping and climate variability, direct observational evidence remains limited. Here, we analyzed paired environmental tracer suites (tritium, carbon-14, and tritiogenic helium-3) collected a decade apart from 268 wells across California to assess the prevalence of groundwater age transience. Travel-time distribution models and statistical tests indicated age transience at 29% of sites, occurring most often in agricultural regions, such as the San Joaquin Valley and Southern Coast Ranges, where large carbon-14 changes coincided with substantial nitrate and chloride shifts. Sites with tritiogenic helium-3 data showed more frequent age transience, underscoring the value of multi-tracer data sets. These results provide the first regional evidence of widespread groundwater age change and a method for detecting changing water balances with implications for groundwater sustainability and water quality.

California

Water quality of selected springs and public-supply wells, Pine Ridge Indian Reservation, South Dakota, 1992-97

This report presents results of a water-quality study for the Pine Ridge Indian Reservation, South Dakota. The study was a cooperative effort between the U.S. Geological Survey and the Water Resources Department of the Oglala Sioux Tribe. Discharge and water-quality data were collected during 1992-97 for 14 contact springs located in the northwestern part of the Reservation. Data were collected to evaluate potential alternative sources of water supply for the village of Red Shirt, which currently obtains water of marginal quality from a well completed in the Inyan Kara aquifer. During 1995-97, water-quality data also were collected for 44 public-supply wells that serve about one-half of the Reservation's population. Quality-assurance sampling was used to evaluate the precision and accuracy of environmental samples. Ten of the springs sampled contact the White River Group, and four contact the Pierre Shale. Springs contacting the White River Group range from calcium bicarbonate to sodium bicarbonate water types. Two springs contacting the Pierre Shale have water types similar to this; however, sulfate is the dominant anion for the other two springs. In general, springs contacting the White River Group are shown to have better potential as alternative sources of water supply for the village of Red Shirt than springs contacting the Pierre Shale. Nine of the springs with better water quality were sampled repeatedly; however, only minor variability in water quality was identified. Six of these nine springs, of which five contact the White River Group, probably have the best potential for use as water supplies. Discharge from any of these six springs probably would provide adequate water supply for Red Shirt during most periods, based on a limited number of discharge measurements collected. Concentrations of lead exceeded the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) action level of 15 µg/L for three of these six springs. Five of these six springs also had arsenic concentrations that exceeded 10 µg/L, which could be problematic if the current maximum contaminant level (MCL) is lowered. Blending of water from one or more springs with water from the existing Inyan Kara well may be an option to address concerns regarding both quantity and quality of existing and potential sources. All nine springs that were sampled for indicator bacteria had positive detections on one or more occasions during presumptive tests. Although USEPA standards for bacteria apply only to public-water supplies, local residents using spring water for domestic purposes need to be aware of the potential health risks associated with consuming untreated water. One spring contacting the White River Group and two springs contacting the Pierre Shale exceeded 15 pCi/L for gross alpha; these values do not necessarily constitute exceedances of the MCL, which excludes radioactivity contributed by uranium and radon. Additional sampling using different analysis techniques would be needed to conclusively determine if any samples exceeded this MCL. Nine springs were sampled for selected pesticides and tritium. The pesticides atrazine, carbaryl, and 2,4-D were not detected in any of the samples. The nine springs were analyzed for tritium in order to generally assess the age of the water and to determine if concentrations exceeded the MCL established for gross beta-particle activity. Tritium results indicated two springs are composed primarily of water recharged prior to atmospheric testing of nuclear bombs and two other springs have a relatively large percentage of test-era water. The remaining five springs had tritium values that indicated some percentage of test-era water; however, additional sampling would be needed to determine whether water is predominantly pre- or post-bomb age. Of the 44 public-supply wells sampled, 42 are completed in the Arikaree aquifer, one is completed in an alluvial aquifer, and one is completed in the Inyan Kara aquifer. Water from the alluvial well is a sodium bicarbonate water type, water from Arikaree aquifer ranges from calcium bicarbonate to sodium bicarbonate types, and water from the Inyan Kara well is a calcium sulfate bicarbonate type. Of the 44 wells sampled, 28 (64 percent) tested positive for indicator bacteria in presumptive tests. Because these were single samples that generally were collected upstream from chemical treatment feeders, positive detections do not necessarily constitute exceedances of drinking-water standards. A single sample from an Arikaree well exceeded the MCL for arsenic of 50 µg/L. Arsenic exceeded 10 µg/L for six additional Arikaree wells and for the alluvial well and the Inyan Kara well, which could be problematic if the current MCL is lowered. The alluvial well also exceeded the secondary maximum contaminant level (SMCL) for dissolved solids, which is non-enforceable, and the action level for lead. The Inyan Kara well exceeded the SMCL's for iron and for manganese and the MCL of 5 pCi/L for radium-226 and 228 combined. Several Arikaree wells exceeded SMCL's for either pH, sulfate, dissolved solids, iron, or manganese. One Arikaree well exceeded the MCL of 4.0 mg/L for fluoride and another exceeded the MCL of 10 mg/L for nitrite plus nitrate. Ten Arikaree wells equalled or exceeded 15 pCi/L for gross alpha; however, these values do not necessarily constitute exceedances of the MCL, which excludes radioactivity contributed by uranium and radon. Additional sampling using different analysis techniques would be needed to conclusively determine if any samples exceeded this MCL. Eight wells, all from the Arikaree aquifer, equalled or exceeded the proposed MCL of 20 µg/L for uranium and 33 wells (75 percent) equalled or exceeded one-half of the proposed MCL. Although this standard has only been proposed, additional information regarding the extent of elevated uranium concentrations in the Arikaree aquifer, and the geochemical processes involved, may be beneficial. It was determined from analyses of uranium isotope data for five wells that the source of elevated uranium concentrations is naturally occurring, rather than anthropogenic.

South Dakota

PFAS sampling activities in the U.S. Geological Survey national networks

Per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS), frequently called “forever chemicals,” are used for a wide variety of industrial purposes and are often found in common household and industrial items such as firefighting foams, non-stick cookware, and water-resistant materials. The contamination of water, air, and soil by PFAS is a national and global issue due to their widespread occurrence in multiple applications and resistance to biodegradation and other traditional treatment processes. Research indicates that many PFAS can be emitted to the atmosphere and transported and deposited long distances from the source. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Water Resources Mission Area received funding to implement a national-scale sampling effort to assess PFAS occurrence. To follow agency directives, the National Water Quality Network (NWQN) added PFAS sample monitoring for both surface water and groundwater, and also added PFAS monitoring to selected sites in the National Atmospheric Deposition Program (NADP).

General Information Product

Predictable seismic cycles result from structural rupture barriers on oceanic transform faults

Earthquakes of magnitude ( M ) >5.5 on oceanic transform faults (OTFs) repeatedly rupture the same locked patches, sometimes quasiperiodically. These patches are separated by “barriers” that halt earthquake propagation and slip mostly aseismically. However, the physical processes governing this systematic behavior remain unclear. We analyzed two barriers along the Gofar transform fault that have arrested ~15 M 6 earthquakes over the past three decades. Ocean bottom seismometer data indicate that the barriers hosted intense microseismicity before the mainshocks and comprise multistrand faults and transtensional stepovers with 100- to 400-m lateral offset. These characteristics contradict earthquake rupture termination models invoking velocity-strengthening friction or large geometric steps and instead point to damage-enhanced porosity and dilatancy-strengthening mechanisms. By isolating rupture segments, the barriers regulate the quasiperiodic recurrence of OTF earthquakes.

Science

Small-volume tephra deposits of the May 1924 explosions from Halemaʻumaʻu, Kīlauea volcano, and their origin

More than 50 explosive eruptions occurred from Halemaʻumaʻu at Kīlauea volcano over 17 days from May 11 to 27, 1924. Ballistics weighing as much as 14,000 kg were ejected and most landed within 2 km of the vent. Fine ash made up a major component of the tephra and was dispersed tens of kilometers downwind. Draining of the Halemaʻumaʻu lava lake occurred in late February 1924, with the crater floor eventually subsiding by a further ∼70 m (to ∼180 m below the crater rim) by the time the first explosions took place during the night of May 10–11. The largest explosions occurred on May 17–18 and smaller explosions continued until May 27, at which point Halemaʻumaʻu had more than doubled in width and depth. The explosions generated plumes reaching up to ∼10 km high with ballistics ejected up to 2 km from the crater. Almost 100 years later, we investigate and characterize the preserved tephra deposits within ∼3 km of the 1924 crater rim. Grain size and shape analyses were performed on 202 samples collected from 34 tephra profiles using dynamic image analysis, with a subset of layers from nine tephra profiles used for componentry (200 grains per layer in the 0.5–1 mm size fraction). Additionally, we characterize the average diameters (using the five largest clasts) at 216 locations and measure the average diameters of 2291 ballistics (largest per ∼100 m 2 area). Physical descriptions from fieldwork and grain size distributions were used to subdivide the tephra layers into five lithofacies: coarse homogeneous, fine homogenous, red ash, accretionary lapilli-bearing, and finely laminated. Grain size versus shape data show a range of values that demonstrate most grains are dense, smooth, and equant, in alignment with lithic clasts dominating the tephra componentry. The fine grained and accretionary lapilli-bearing nature of some of these lithofacies confirms that water influenced the style of the explosions. However, we also note juvenile clasts within many of the tephra layers, indicating that many of the layers were formed during phreatomagmatic explosions (sensu stricto), despite the eruptive mechanism being dominantly phreatic. Juvenile clasts are more abundant higher in the tephra profiles, suggesting that juvenile magma was more involved later in the explosive sequence. Thermal and hydrologic modeling indicate that groundwater inflow into a short-lived, small-diameter volcanic conduit (10-m to 120-m-diameter used for modeling) during the 78–85 days preceding the first explosion provides a physically plausible mechanism for this eruptive sequence.

Hawaii

Water quality of Rob Roy Reservoir and Lake Owen, Albany County, and Granite Springs and Crystal Lake Reservoirs, Laramie County, Wyoming, 1997-98

The water quality of four reservoirs was assessed during 1997 and 1998 as a cooperative project between the Cheyenne Board of Public Utilities and the U. S. Geological Survey. The four reservoirs, Rob Roy, Lake Owen, Granite Springs, and Crystal Lake, provide approximately 75 percent of the public water supply for Cheyenne, Wyoming. Samples of water and bottom sediment were collected and analyzed for selected physical, chemical, and biological characteristics to provide data about the reservoirs. Water flows between the reservoirs through a series of pipelines and stream channels. The reservoirs differ in physical characteristics such as elevation, volume, and depth. Profiles of temperature, dissolved oxygen, specific conductance, and pH were examined. Three of the four reservoirs exhibited stratification during the summer. The profiles indicate that stratification develops in all reservoirs except Lake Owen. Stratification developed in Rob Roy, Granite Springs, and Crystal Lake Reservoirs by mid-July in 1998 and continued until September, with the thickness of the epilimnion increasing during that time. Secchi disk readings indicated Rob Roy Reservoir had the clearest water of the four reservoirs studied. The composition of the phytoplankton community was different in the upper two reservoirs from that in the lower two reservoirs. Many of the species found in Rob Roy Reservoir and Lake Owen are associated with oligotrophic, nutrient-poor conditions. In contrast, many of the species found in Granite Springs and Crystal Lake Reservoirs are associated with mesotrophic or eutrophic conditions. The total number of taxa identified also increased downstream. The chemical water type in the reservoirs was similar, but dissolved-solids concentrations were greater in the downstream reservoirs. Water in all four reservoirs was a calcium-bicarbonate type. In the fall of 1997, Rob Roy Reservoir had the lowest dissolved-solids concentration (19 milligrams per liter), whereas Crystal Lake Reservoir had the highest concentration (63 milligrams per liter). Relatively little differences in the concentrations of major-ion species were noted between samples collected near the surface and near the bottom of the same reservoir. In contrast, iron and manganese concentrations generally were higher in samples collected near the bottom of a reservoir than in near-surface samples collected from the same reservoir. Composite bottom-sediment samples from all four reservoirs contained similar concentrations of bulk constituents such as aluminum, iron, phosphorus and titanium, but varied in concentrations of trace elements. Trace-element concentrations in Rob Roy Reservoir and Lake Owen were similar to the crustal average, whereas in Granite Springs and Crystal Lake Reservoirs the concentrations were similar to granitic rocks.

Wyoming

Using the horizontal-to-vertical spectral ratio method to estimate thickness of the Barry Arm landslide, Prince William Sound, Alaska

Conducting detailed investigations of large landslides is difficult, especially in the subsurface, largely due to environmental factors such as steep slopes, difficult access, and numerous objective hazards. These factors have made it challenging to accurately estimate the depth to the failure surface of the Barry Arm landslide, a large (roughly 10 8 cubic meters), deep-seated bedrock landslide in Prince William Sound, Alaska, recognized in 2019. The landslide has exhibited accelerated movement in recent years and poses a potential tsunamigenic hazard if rapid failure occurs. Failure surface depth, equivalent to landslide thickness, is a necessary metric for landslide-volume calculations and associated tsunami wave models. In this report, we used seismic noise recorded by a seismometer located on the Barry Arm landslide in Alaska to calculate the horizontal-to-vertical spectral ratio (HVSR) to investigate the site fundamental frequency ( f 0 ) and depth of the failure surface. To ensure that observed peak frequencies in the spectral ratio were related to the underlying stratigraphy (and not caused by other noise sources like nearby glaciers, topographic resonance, weather, or human activities), we also calculated HVSRs using earthquake signals, HVSRs at other seismic stations within a 2.5-kilometer radius, and a standard spectral ratio between the landslide station and other sites. We observed multiple peaks in the landslide HVSR curves at 1.5 hertz (Hz), 4–5 Hz, and 7–11 Hz. The frequencies of these peaks were consistent at the landslide site through time and across methods and were dissimilar to those identified at other seismic stations in the area, making it unlikely the peaks were caused by local noise. Directional HVSRs calculated at 15-degree intervals showed amplification of the higher frequency peaks in the direction parallel to slip, indicating two-dimensional site effects. We used the distinct frequency peaks in the seismic record to develop a 4-layer conceptual model of the landslide wherein the top of the deepest layer represents the primary failure surface, or the boundary between damaged (mobile) and undamaged material. We inverted Rayleigh wave ellipticity curves within this 4-layer configuration with constraints on S-wave velocity and layer thickness based on analogous material properties identified in the literature. This was necessary absent any site-specific subsurface S-wave velocity data. The best-fitting models indicate a mean slope-normal depth to the failure surface of 188 (±9) meters (m), with additional stratigraphic boundaries at 4 and 20 m below ground surface, potentially representing layered motion. These results agree with and improve upon ranges estimated by previous studies and can support future modeling and assessment efforts at Barry Arm.

Alaska

Improved prediction of postfire debris flows through rainfall anomaly maps

Predicting where runoff-generated debris flows might occur during rainfall on steep, recently burned terrain is challenging. Studies of mass-movement processes in unburned areas indicate that event locations are well-predicted by rainfall anomaly, R* , in which peak observed rainfall is normalized by local rainfall climatology. Here, we use remote and field methods to map debris flows triggered within the 2020 Dolan Fire burn area in coastal California, demonstrate that a short-duration R* metric predicts debris-flow occurrence more effectively than absolute peak intensity or longer-duration rainfall metrics, and show that incorporating an R* criterion into an existing debris-flow likelihood model can reduce false positive predictions and improve accuracy. We test R * at three other climatically distinct fires in California, demonstrating its utility for mapping likely debris-flow locations in different climates. We also consider how R* can benefit postfire debris-flow prediction given recent increases in climatological variability within individual burn perimeters.

Callifornia

Assessment of water levels, nitrate, and arsenic in the Carson Valley Alluvial Aquifer and the development of a data visualization tool for the Carson River Basin, Nevada

Residents of Carson Valley, Douglas County, Nevada, rely on the basin-fill alluvial aquifer underlying the valley for drinking water. Since the 1980s, groundwater levels and water-quality data have been collected to monitor the status of the aquifer system and to assist in planning efforts to address current (2024) and future demand. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with Douglas County, Nevada, evaluated trends in water levels, nitrate, and arsenic concentrations from a network of monitoring and domestic wells in Carson Valley. This work also assessed the monitoring well network to determine the suitability of wells for characterizing the occurrence of arsenic in the groundwater. Monitoring of constituents, such as nitrate and arsenic concentrations, is needed to assess changes in contaminant distribution and to evaluate the effect that changing land use and groundwater pumping has on their occurrence and transport. Results of the trend analysis indicate water levels are declining ( p <0.05) in 17 of 26 selected monitoring wells (65 percent). Areas with the largest change in water levels, with more than 20 feet of declines, were within the community areas of Johnson Lane, Ruhenstroth, South Agricultural, East Valley, and Fish Springs. Variations in water levels measured in wells from the Central Agricultural, Minden, Foothill, Alpine County (one well), and Gardnerville Ranchos areas show periods of increase and decrease over time, but they also maintain long-term declining trends ( p <0.05). Increases in nitrate concentrations in groundwater samples collected from 9 out of 14 selected monitoring wells (64 percent) are statistically significant ( p <0.05) within the Ruhenstroth, Gardnerville Ranchos, East Valley, Genoa, and Johnson Lane community areas. Samples collected from a well in Indian Hills/Jacks Valley indicated a decreasing trend in nitrate concentration over time. Nitrate concentrations in samples collected from wells in East Valley, Genoa, Johnson Lane, and Indian Hills/Jack Valley were consistently low (less than 3 milligrams per liter [mg/L]) and stable. Nitrate concentrations from selected wells in Johnson Lane and Garnerville Ranchos exceeded the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) maximum contaminant level (MCL) of 10 mg/L (as nitrogen) and have trends that are increasing over time. In 2022, a sample collected from Johnson Lane had a concentration (7.3 mg/L) below the MCL with an increasing trend over time. Temporal trend analyses for groundwater arsenic concentrations in Carson Valley could not be done because of a lack of temporal data. However, using available historical data, arsenic concentrations seem to be greater in groundwater from wells located on the eastern and northern areas of the valley than in wells located on the western or southern areas. Groundwater arsenic concentrations exceed 5 micrograms per liter (μg/L) in most samples collected from wells in Johnson Lane, Airport, Central Agricultural, and East Valley areas and in many cases exceed the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) MCL of 10 μg/L. Data indicate that groundwater from domestic wells screened at deeper intervals are likely more vulnerable to elevated arsenic concentrations than shallower wells. A groundwater network evaluation for Carson Valley identified potential modifications in the sampling locations and frequency to better understand the effect of groundwater pumping in communities where municipal and domestic demand are greatest, potentially enhancing understanding of contaminant transport in these areas. Potential modifications to the active well network include reducing the frequency of sample collection from existing network wells (6 out of 11) that have consistently shown low and stable nitrate concentrations, adding wells in areas where data are sparse, and increasing the number of wells in areas with elevated groundwater nitrate concentrations. Including the analysis of arsenic in samples from the active groundwater monitoring well network will provide more detail on the temporal and spatial variability of arsenic concentrations. A visualization tool for the Carson River Basin was developed to provide access to discrete and near real-time hydrologic and water-quality data. The Carson River Basin Hydro Mapper (CBH; U.S. Geological Survey, 2023b) shows active and historical discrete water levels measured by the USGS and the State of Nevada Division of Water Resources, discrete groundwater nitrate and arsenic concentration data collected by the USGS, near real-time streamflow, and surface water levels for select waterbodies. The hydrologic data in the CBH provides resource managers, the public, and the scientific community with an easily accessible tool to present and communicate the most up-to-date information available about local and basin-wide water resources.

Nevada

Bølling-Allerød productivity in the subarctic Pacific driven by seasonal upwelling

The Bølling-Allerød deglacial event is marked by high diatom productivity and opal deposition throughout the subarctic Pacific. This opal could either constitute a strengthened biological pump and thus carbon sequestration, or a weakened biological pump and release of marine-sequestered CO 2 to the atmosphere. We quantify silicic acid supply at IODP Site U1340 in the Bering Sea using biogenic opal and δ 30 Si of Coscinodiscus , a diatom genus. These records, along with diatom environmental indicators, suggest the Bølling-Allerød had high silicic acid availability related to a shift from stratification to seasonal upwelling dynamics. We thus propose the primary cause of the high productivity event was increased macronutrient supply from vertical exchange that injected old, nutrient-rich, CO 2 -rich waters into the surface. Enhanced CO 2 release from the subarctic Pacific may help explain critical intervals of CO 2 rise that occur at the onsets of the Bølling-Allerød and PreBoreal.

Geophysical Research Letters

Zircon as a pathfinder to REE mineralization

Carbonatites and alkaline silicate rocks are major primary sources of the rare earth elements (REE) and other critical metals, such as Nb. Despite the economic significance of these rocks, their formation and the processes of REE enrichment are poorly understood. Here, statistical analysis of a global dataset demonstrates that zircon geochemistry is a powerful recorder of REE metallogenesis and a potential pathfinder for REE deposits. Zircons from REE and Nb fertile intrusions lack Eu anomalies and have elevated Gd/Yb and Th/Yb, indicating they crystallised from magmas that originated from deep, oxidised and enriched mantle sources. Complexes with Nb enrichment have low U/Nb, reflecting an enriched mantle source, whereas high U/Nb in REE-only fertile intrusions suggest a subduction-metasomatised mantle source. Machine learning models demonstrate high accuracy in classifying zircon from barren and fertile deposits. Classification of detrital zircons shows that REE-enriched deposits correlate with supercontinent assembly, whereas Nb fertile complexes are associated with supercontinent breakup. This approach offers a new, mineral to global scale, petrologic and exploration tool that enhances understanding of REE metallogenesis.

Geochemical Perspectives Letters

Peak streamflow trends in Montana and northern Wyoming and their relation to changes in climate, water years 1921–2020

Frequency analysis on annual peak streamflow (hereinafter, peak flow) is essential to water-resources management applications, including critical structure design (for example, bridges and culverts) and floodplain mapping. Nonstationarity is a statistical property of a peak-flow series such that the distributional properties (the mean, variance, or skew) change either gradually (monotonic trend) or abruptly (shift, step change or change point) through time. Not incorporating or accounting for observed nonstationarity into peak-flow frequency analysis might result in a poor representation of the true probability of large floods and thus misrepresent the actual flood risks to life and property. This report summarizes how hydroclimatic variability might affect the temporal and spatial distributions of peak-flow data in the State of Montana (and northern Wyoming) and is part of a larger study to document peak-flow nonstationarity and hydroclimatic changes across a nine-State region consisting of Illinois, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota, and Wisconsin. A wide range of analyses and statistical approaches are applied to document the primary mechanisms controlling floods and characterize temporal changes in hydroclimatic variables and peak flows. This study was completed in cooperation with the Montana Department of Natural Resources and Conservation. The purpose of this report is to characterize temporal and spatial patterns of nonstationarity in peak flows and hydroclimatology in Montana and northern Wyoming. In this evaluation, peak-flow, daily streamflow, and model-simulated gridded climatic data were examined for monotonic trends, change points, and other statistical properties that might indicate changing climatic and environmental conditions. This report includes background information on the study area, the history of U.S. Geological Survey peak-flow data collection and frequency analysis in Montana, and the review of research relating to hydroclimatic variability and change in Montana. This study might help provide a framework for addressing potential nonstationarity issues in peak-flow frequency updates that commonly are completed by the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with other agencies throughout the Nation. The analytical structure of this study includes analyses of monotonic trends and change points in numerous hydroclimatic variables in assigned 30-, 50-, 75-, and 100-year analysis periods. For Montana and part of Wyoming, the 30-, 50-, 75, and 100-year analyses included 157, 70, 48, and 12 streamgages, respectively. For those streamgages, nonstationarities were analyzed in the following variables: (1) climatic variables, including annual and seasonal (winter, spring, summer, and fall) temperature and precipitation; (2) daily streamflow variables, including the annual center of volume duration, annual center of volume median, and peaks over threshold with a mean of four events per year; and (3) annual peak-flow variables, including peak-flow timing and magnitude. A likelihood approach was used to express statistical confidence and assign the nonstationarity results as likely upward or downward (highest statistical confidence), somewhat likely upward or downward (less statistical confidence), or about as likely as not (little statistical confidence; hereinafter, neutral). For the nonstationarity analyses of the climatic, daily streamflow, and peak-flow variables, the results are presented in detail and discussed with respect to statewide patterns and geographic variability. For each of the 30-, 50-, and 75-year analyses, peak-flow change-point and monotonic trend analyses were compiled for streamgages classified with likely downward or likely upward trends. For those streamgages, the associated basin characteristics and nonstationarity results for peak-flow timing, daily streamflow, and climatic variables were investigated and statistically compared to discern associations among other variables that might contribute to the peak-flow nonstationarity results. The 50- and 75-year peak-flow nonstationarities identified in this study are mostly downward, in association with mostly upward temperature and potential evapotranspiration:precipitation monotonic trends. For the 50-, 75-, and 100-year analyses, the peak-flow change points are predominantly downward and are concentrated in the 1970s and 1980s, which indicates general consistency among the longer trend periods. These findings are in association with substantial research documenting globally rising temperature and atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations that might be largely attributed to anthropogenic activities. Anthropogenic effects might represent long-term (on the order of several decades to more than a century) climate changes that might happen within highly variable natural climate fluctuations. Several paleo studies in the north-central United States have indicated that hydroclimatic extremes (that is, low- and high-streamflow conditions) before European settlement have been outside of extremes since the 1900s. Depending on the interactions of anthropogenic effects and natural climate variability, extreme high-streamflow conditions might occur in the future, even in the presence of long-term downward peak-flow trends.

Montana, Wyoming

Long-term dynamics of earthquake swarms in the Yellowstone caldera

The factors controlling the spatial distribution and temporal evolution of earthquake swarms in volcanic systems remain unclear. We leverage leading-edge deep learning algorithms and a detailed three-dimensional velocity model to construct a 15-year high-resolution earthquake catalog of the Yellowstone caldera region. More than half of the region’s earthquakes are clustered into swarm-like families characterized by episodes of hypocenter expansion and migration. Adjacent earthquake swarms, separated by long quiescent periods, are found to be a dominant feature. We suggest that these swarms are controlled by the interplay between slowly diffusing aqueous fluids and rapid episodic fluid injections, which may result from the breaking of permeability seals. Our analyses also indicate that clustered seismicity beneath the caldera occurs on relatively immature, rougher fault structures, compared to more planar faults outside. Our results provide additional context for understanding seismicity in hydrothermal systems, highlighting the key role played by long-term fluid diffusion processes in driving the occurrence of earthquake swarms.

Idaho, Montana, Wyoming

Unveiling coseismic deformation from differenced legacy aerial photography and modern lidar topography: The 1983 M6.9 Borah Peak earthquake, Idaho, USA

The 1983 M6.9 Borah Peak, Idaho, earthquake is one of the largest historical normal fault earthquakes in the western United States. We quantified meter-scale vertical change along the 35 km-long rupture using topographic differencing of 1966 aerial imagery and 2019 lidar-derived data. The initial differencing results are largely obscured by horizontal and vertical georeferencing errors and flight-line stripes. Our error corrections are designed to be insensitive to the coseismic deformation and reduced error by 50%. We calculated vertical separation and resolved a maximum of 2.02 ± 0.46 m at Doublespring Pass. Our vertical separation measurements are generally consistent with those from prior studies using field data and post-earthquake topographic data. However, the differencing measurements are a few decimeters lower than these prior measurements, indicating that differencing can isolate historical from prehistoric earthquake deformation. Our study demonstrates that revisiting historical earthquakes can provide new insights into the magnitude and patterns of coseismic deformation.

Idaho

Mapping a Carrington storm

A map is presented of median 1-min-resolution peak geoelectric-field strength across the United States as would be induced by magnetic storms as intense as the 2 September 1859 Carrington storm. The map is constructed from two data sets: Magnetometer time series from 22 ground-based observatories recording 40 magnetic storms, and surface impedance tensors derived from magnetotelluric measurements acquired at 1616 survey sites across the contiguous United States. Carrington-class storm geoelectric fields are likely to be very strong in the United States East and Midwest; > 5.00 V/km at many places. In Virginia, strengths would likely range from 30.30 V/km, with a 68% confidence interval of [19.44,47.20] V/km, to as low as 0.05 [0.03,0.07] V/km. Comparison of model geopotentials with those measured on 30 long lines, indicates errors of about 18%. A Carrington-class storm would likely induce geoelectric fields with strengths 55% greater than for the 13–14 March 1989 storm.

contiguous United States

Water-quality assessment of the Ozark Plateaus study unit, Arkansas, Kansas, Missouri, and Oklahoma — Nutrients, bacteria, organic carbon, and suspended sediment in surface water, 1993-95

Nutrient, bacteria, organic carbon, and suspended- sediment samples were collected from 1993-95 at 43 surface-water-quality sampling sites within the Ozark Plateaus National Water- Quality Assessment Program study unit. Most surface-water-quality sites have small or medium drainage basins, near-homogenous land uses (primarily agricultural or forest), and are located predominantly in the Springfield and Salem Plateaus. The water-quality data were analyzed using selected descriptive and statistical methods to determine factors affecting occurrence in streams in the study unit. Nitrogen and phosphorus fertilizer use increased in the Ozark Plateaus study unit for the period 1965-85, but the application rates are well below the national median. Fertilizer use differed substantially among the major river basins and physiographic areas in the study unit. Livestock and poultry waste is a major source of nutrient loading in parts of the study unit. The quantity of nitrogen and phosphorus from livestock and poultry wastes differed substantially among the river basins of the study unit's sampling network. Eighty six municipal sewage-treatment plants in the study unit have effluents of 0.5 million gallons per day or more (for the years 1985-91). Statistically significant differences existed in surface-water quality that can be attributed to land use, physiography, and drainage basin size. Dissolved nitrite plus nitrate, total phosphorus, fecal coliform bacteria, and dissolved organic carbon concentrations generally were larger at sites associated with agricultural basins than at sites associated with forested basins. A large difference in dissolved nitrite plus nitrate concentrations occurred between streams draining basins with agricultural land use in the Springfield and Salem Plateaus. Streams draining both small and medium agricultural basins in the Springfield Plateau had much larger concentrations than their counterparts in the Salem Plateau. Drainage basin size was not a significant factor in affecting total phosphorus, fecal coliform bacteria, or dissolved organic carbon concentrations. Suspended-sediment concentrations generally were small and indicative of the clear water in streams in the Ozark Plateaus. A comparison of the dissolved nitrite plus nitrate, total phosphorus, and fecal coliform data collected at the fixed and synoptic sites indicates that generally the data for streams draining basins of similar physiography, land-use setting, and drainage basin size group together. Many of the variations are most likely the result of differences in percent agricultural land use between the sites being compared or are discharge related. The relation of dissolved nitrite plus nitrate, total phosphorus, and fecal coliform concentration to percent agricultural land use has a strong positive 2 Water-Quality Assessment-Nutrients, Bacteria, Organic Carbon, and Suspended Sediment in Surface Water, 1993-95 correlation, with percent agricultural land use accounting for between 42 and 60 percent of the variation in the observed concentrations.

Arkansas, Kansas, Missouri, Oklahoma