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At least 181 records · Page 10Linked to original sources
USGS2011

Mercury export from the Yukon River Basin and potential response to a changing climate

We measured mercury (Hg) concentrations and calculated export and yield from the Yukon River Basin (YRB) to quantify Hg flux from a large, permafrost-dominated, high-latitude watershed. Exports of Hg averaged 4400 kg Hg yr -1 . The average annual yield for the YRB during the study period was 5.17 &mu;g m -2 yr -1 , which is 3&ndash;32 times more than Hg yields reported for 8 other major northern hemisphere river basins. The vast majority (90%) of Hg export is associated with particulates. Half of the annual export of Hg occurred during the spring with about 80% of 34 samples exceeding the U.S. EPA Hg standard for adverse chronic effects to biota. Dissolved and particulate organic carbon exports explained 81% and 50%, respectively, of the variance in Hg exports, and both were significantly ( p < 0.001) correlated with water discharge. Recent measurements indicate that permafrost contains a substantial reservoir of Hg. Consequently, climate warming will likely accelerate the mobilization of Hg from thawing permafrost increasing the export of organic carbon associated Hg and thus potentially exacerbating the production of bioavailable methylmercury from permafrost-dominated northern river basins.

Alaska↗
USGS2015

A model for evaluating stream temperature response to climate change in Wisconsin

Expected climatic changes in air temperature and precipitation patterns across the State of Wisconsin may alter future stream temperature and flow regimes. As a consequence of flow and temperature changes, the composition and distribution of fish species assemblages are expected to change. In an effort to gain a better understanding of how climatic changes may affect stream temperature, an approach was developed to predict and project daily summertime stream temperature under current and future climate conditions for 94,341 stream kilometers across Wisconsin. The approach uses a combination of static landscape characteristics and dynamic time-series climatic variables as input for an Artificial Neural Network (ANN) Model integrated with a Soil-Water-Balance (SWB) Model. Future climate scenarios are based on output from downscaled General Circulation Models (GCMs). The SWB model provided a means to estimate the temporal variability in groundwater recharge and provided a mechanism to evaluate the effect of changing air temperature and precipitation on groundwater recharge and soil moisture. The Integrated Soil-Water-Balance and Artificial Neural Network version 1 (SWB-ANNv1) Model was used to simulate daily summertime stream temperature under current (1990&ndash;2008) climate and explained 76 percent of the variation in the daily mean based on validation at 67 independent sites. Results were summarized as July mean water temperature, and individual stream segments were classified by thermal class (cold, cold transition, warm transition, and warm) for comparison of current (1990&ndash;2008) with future climate conditions. Integrating the SWB Model with the ANN Model provided a mechanism by which downscaled global or regional climate model results could be used to estimate the potential effects of climate change on future stream temperature on a daily time step. To address future climate scenarios, statistically downscaled air temperature and precipitation projections from 10 GCMs and 2 time periods were used with the SWB-ANNv1 Model to project future stream temperature. Projections of future stream temperatures at mid- (2046&ndash;65) and late- (2081&ndash;2100) 21st century showed the July mean water temperature increasing for all stream segments with about 80 percent of stream kilometers increasing by 1 to 2 degrees Celsius (&deg;C) by mid-century and about 99 percent increasing by 1 to 3 &deg;C by late-century. Projected changes in stream temperatures also affected changes in thermal classes with a loss in the total amount of cold-water, cold-transition, and warm-transition thermal habitat and a gain in warm-water and very warm thermal habitat for both mid- and late-21st century time periods. The greatest losses occurred for cold-water streams and the greatest gains for warm-water streams, with a contraction of cold-water streams in the Driftless Area of western and southern Wisconsin and an expansion of warm-water streams across northern Wisconsin. Results of this study suggest that such changes will affect the composition of fish assemblages, with a loss of suitable habitat for cold-water fishes and gain in suitable habitat for warm-water fishes. In the end, these projected changes in thermal habitat attributable to climate may result in a net loss of fisheries, because many warm-water species may be unable to colonize habitats formerly occupied by cold-water species because of other habitat limitations (e.g., stream size, gradient). Although projected stream temperatures may vary greatly, depending on the emissions scenario and models used, the results presented in this report represent one possibility. The relative change in stream temperature can provide useful information for planning for potential climate impacts to aquatic ecosystems. Model results can be used to help identify vulnerabilities of streams to climate change, guide stream surveys and thermal classifications, prioritize the allocation of scarce financial resources, identify approaches to climate adaptation to best protect and enhance resiliency in stream thermal habitat, and provide information to make quantitative assessments of statewide stream resources.

Wisconsin↗
USGS2012

Impacts of climate change on biodiversity, ecosystems, and ecosystem services: technical input to the 2013 National Climate Assessment

Ecosystems, and the biodiversity and services they support, are intrinsically dependent on climate. During the twentieth century, climate change has had documented impacts on ecological systems, and impacts are expected to increase as climate change continues and perhaps even accelerates. This technical input to the National Climate Assessment synthesizes our scientific understanding of the way climate change is affecting biodiversity, ecosystems, ecosystem services, and what strategies might be employed to decrease current and future risks. Building on past assessments of how climate change and other stressors are affecting ecosystems in the United States and around the world, we approach the subject from several different perspectives. First, we review the observed and projected impacts on biodiversity, with a focus on genes, species, and assemblages of species. Next, we examine how climate change is affecting ecosystem structural elements&mdash;such as biomass, architecture, and heterogeneity&mdash;and functions&mdash;specifically, as related to the fluxes of energy and matter. People experience climate change impacts on biodiversity and ecosystems as changes in ecosystem services; people depend on ecosystems for resources that are harvested, their role in regulating the movement of materials and disturbances, and their recreational, cultural, and aesthetic value. Thus, we review newly emerging research to determine how human activities and a changing climate are likely to alter the delivery of these ecosystem services. This technical input also examines two cross-cutting topics. First, we recognize that climate change is happening against the backdrop of a wide range of other environmental and anthropogenic stressors, many of which have caused dramatic ecosystem degradation already. This broader range of stressors interacts with climate change, and complicates our abilities to predict and manage the impacts on biodiversity, ecosystems, and the services they support. The second cross-cutting topic is the rapidly advancing field of climate adaptation, where there has been significant progress in developing the conceptual framework, planning approaches, and strategies for safeguarding biodiversity and other ecological resources. At the same time, ecosystem-based adaptation is becoming more prominent as a way to utilize ecosystem services to help human systems adapt to climate change. In this summary, we present key findings of the technical input, focusing on themes that can be found throughout the report. Thus, this summary takes a more integrated look at the question of how climate change is affecting our ecological resources, the implications for humans, and possible response strategies. This integrated approach better reflects the impacts of climate in the real world, where changes in ecosystem structure or function will alter the viability of different species and the efficacy of ecosystem services. Likewise, adaptation to climate change will simultaneously address a range of conservation goals. Case studies are used to illustrate this complete picture throughout the report; a snapshot of one case study, 2011 Las Conchas, New Mexico Fire , is included in this summary.

Report↗
USGS2023

Scenario-Based Decision Analysis: Integrated scenario planning and structured decision making for resource management under climate change

Managing resources under climate change is a high-stakes and daunting task, especially because climate change and associated complex biophysical responses engender sustained directional changes as well as abrupt transformations. This environmental non-stationarity challenges assumptions and expectations among scientists, managers, rights holders, and stakeholders. These challenges are anything but straightforward – a high degree of uncertainty impedes our ability to predict the environmental trajectory with confidence, and affected resources often span multiple governance jurisdictions or are subject to competing management objectives. Fortunately, tools exist to help grapple with such challenges. Two commonly used tools are scenario planning (SP) and structured decision making (SDM). SP is a well-established approach for assessing system response and facilitating decision making under a wide range of conditions that are uncertain and uncontrollable, such as those associated with adapting to climate change. However, SP lacks a defined structure for establishing objectives, quantifying tradeoffs, and evaluating the performance of candidate decisions to meet those objectives. SDM, on the other hand, is rooted in decision theory and focuses on explicit (often quantitative) assessment of the expected outcomes of choosing among a set of decision alternatives. SDM has been criticized for an inability to account for surprises and for imposing an overly narrow framing of problems to increase tractability. We discuss the strengths and limitations of SDM and SP as experienced through their application in various resource-management contexts, and then propose a new generalized framework – Scenario-Based Decision Analysis (SBDA) – that integrates these complementary approaches. SBDA structures resource management problems and solutions while considering uncertainties and surprises to inform resource management decision making.

Biological Conservation↗
USGS2024

Evaluating seawater intrusion forecast uncertainty under climate change in the Pajaro Valley, California

Climate change and climate variability impacts such as rising sea levels have the potential to exacerbate seawater intrusion and the strain on coastal freshwater resources in already stressed groundwater basins such as those in the Pajaro Valley groundwater basin, California. Regional hydrologic models are often coupled with climate projections to forecast future hydrologic conditions and inform adaptive resources management strategies. However, there is high uncertainty in the future projections of water resources due to uncertainties from downscaling global general circulation models (GCMs) to local scale climate change projections, future land use changes, and the inherent uncertainty of developed hydrologic models. Future climate projections and the magnitude of their influence on modeled hydrologic drivers are highly variable. Therefore, to develop a forecast model, an ensemble of different projections can be used to capture a wider range of basin responses and the associated uncertainties in the modeled forecasts. Understanding the reliability and uncertainty of forecasts is important for developing climate adaptation strategies such as developing protective thresholds, particularly at the basin scale where the impacts are felt, and adaptation is implemented. To demonstrate this, an uncertainty analysis of groundwater level and seawater intrusion forecasts for the Pajaro Valley groundwater basin was performed using an ensemble of three future climate projections with the Pajaro Valley Integrated Hydrologic Model (PVIHM) and the first-order second moment (FOSM) method. FOSM uncertainty analysis of hydrologic forecasts across a multi-GCM climate ensemble provides an upper and lower bound of potential impacts of climate change on sustainability targets related to mitigating seawater intrusion. The groundwater level forecasts’ narrow range of variability can help policymakers in adaptation planning by constraining possible outcomes to a focused range for risk-management decisions. However, less than one-third of groundwater level forecasts met the current protection thresholds to prevent chronic lowering of groundwater. Therefore, sustainability targets may need to be reassessed. Relative to groundwater level changes, the seawater intrusion forecasts had larger uncertainty due to the GCM climate projections and the simulated hydrologic response that were compounded by the propagation of scaling and bias from the GCMs and model simplifications in simulating the coastal boundary.

California↗
USGS2005

Climate change and changes in sediment transport capacity in the Colorado Plateau, USA

Information is presented on changes in the sediment transport capacity of streams of the Colorado Plateau region of the United States. The changes in transport capacity may be due to changes in climate. Changes in the ability of three rivers in the Colorado Plateau to transport sediment were investigated (Paria River at Lees Ferry, Arizona; Sevier River at Hatch, Utah; and Little Colorado at Woodruff, Arizona) using an index to sediment transport potential (or capacity) of the rivers. The index is called a Sediment Transport Capacity Index (STCI). The parameters in the index are calibrated to measured sediment concentrations. Other investigators have postulated that there have been three climate regimes in the Colorado Plateau during the 20th century: 1905-1941, 1942-1977 and 1978-1998. Time series analyses of the STCI showed reasonably clearly that there was a change in the climate about 1941 and a high probability of a change about 1923-1929. The STCI time series for the Sevier River had the expected pattern because the STCI increased in the years following 1997 nearly to the pre-1942 values from lower 1942-1977 values. The Little Colorado River showed a similar pattern, but not nearly to the magnitude suggested by the change in precipitation. The STCI for the Paria River essentially did not change. Changes in sediment transport also are investigated in the lower San Juan River where alterations in the sediment balance of the river may be due to variations in the character of summer precipitation.

Conference Paper↗
USGS2006

Forecasting effects of climate change on Great Lakes fisheries: models that link habitat supply to population dynamics can help

Future changes to climate in the Great Lakes may have important consequences for fisheries. Evidence suggests that Great Lakes air and water temperatures have risen and the duration of ice cover has lessened during the past century. Global circulation models (GCMs) suggest future warming and increases in precipitation in the region. We present new evidence that water temperatures have risen in Lake Erie, particularly during summer and winter in the period 1965–2000. GCM forecasts coupled with physical models suggest lower annual runoff, less ice cover, and lower lake levels in the future, but the certainty of these forecasts is low. Assessment of the likely effects of climate change on fish stocks will require an integrative approach that considers several components of habitat rather than water temperature alone. We recommend using mechanistic models that couple habitat conditions to population demographics to explore integrated effects of climate-caused habitat change and illustrate this approach with a model for Lake Erie walleye ( Sander vitreum ). We show that the combined effect on walleye populations of plausible changes in temperature, river hydrology, lake levels, and light penetration can be quite different from that which would be expected based on consideration of only a single factor.

Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences↗
USGS2002

Impacts of climate change on the global forest sector

The path and magnitude of future anthropogenic emissions of carbon dioxide will likely influence changes in climate that may impact the global forest sector. These responses in the global forest sector may have implications for international efforts to stabilize the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide. This study takes a step toward including the role of global forest sector in integrated assessments of the global carbon cycle by linking global models of climate dynamics, ecosystem processes and forest economics to assess the potential responses of the global forest sector to different levels of greenhouse gas emissions. We utilize three climate scenarios and two economic scenarios to represent a range of greenhouse gas emissions and economic behavior. At the end of the analysis period (2040), the potential responses in regional forest growing stock simulated by the global ecosystem model range from decreases and increases for the low emissions climate scenario to increases in all regions for the high emissions climate scenario. The changes in vegetation are used to adjust timber supply in the softwood and hardwood sectors of the economic model. In general, the global changes in welfare are positive, but small across all scenarios. At the regional level, the changes in welfare can be large and either negative or positive. Markets and trade in forest products play important roles in whether a region realizes any gains associated with climate change. In general, regions with the lowest wood fiber production cost are able to expand harvests. Trade in forest products leads to lower prices elsewhere. The low-cost regions expand market shares and force higher-cost regions to decrease their harvests. Trade produces different economic gains and losses across the globe even though, globally, economic welfare increases. The results of this study indicate that assumptions within alternative climate scenarios and about trade in forest products are important factors that strongly influence the effects of climate change on the global forest sector.

Climatic Change↗
USGS2021

Divergent climate change effects on widespread dryland plant communities driven by climatic and ecohydrological gradients

Plant community response to climate change will be influenced by individual plant responses that emerge from competition for limiting resources that fluctuate through time and vary across space. Projecting these responses requires an approach that integrates environmental conditions and species interactions that result from future climatic variability. Dryland plant communities are being substantially affected by climate change because their structure and function are closely tied to precipitation and temperature, yet impacts vary substantially due to environmental heterogeneity, especially in topographically complex regions. Here, we quantified the effects of climate change on big sagebrush ( Artemisia tridentata Nutt.) plant communities that span 76 million ha in the western United States. We used an individual-based plant simulation model that represents intra- and inter-specific competition for water availability, which is represented by a process-based soil water balance model. For dominant plant functional types, we quantified changes in biomass and characterized agreement among 52 future climate scenarios. We then used a multivariate matching algorithm to generate fine-scale interpolated surfaces of functional type biomass for our study area. Results suggest geographically divergent responses of big sagebrush to climate change (changes in biomass of −20% to +27%), declines in perennial C 3 grass and perennial forb biomass in most sites, and widespread, consistent, and sometimes large increases in perennial C 4 grasses. The largest declines in big sagebrush, perennial C 3 grass and perennial forb biomass were simulated in warm, dry sites. In contrast, we simulated no change or increases in functional type biomass in cold, moist sites. There was high agreement among climate scenarios on climate change impacts to functional type biomass, except for big sagebrush. Collectively, these results suggest divergent responses to warming in moisture-limited versus temperature-limited sites and potential shifts in the relative importance of some of the dominant functional types that result from competition for limiting resources.

Global Change Biology↗
USGS2022

Climate change adaptation thinking for managed wetlands

Climate change presents new and ongoing challenges to natural resource management. To confront these challenges effectively, managers need to develop proactive adaptation strategies to prepare for and deal with the effects of climate change. We engaged managers and biologists from several midwestern U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service field stations to understand recent and future climate change effects, identify adaptation barriers and opportunities, and pilot an approach for integrating adaptation thinking into management planning. To start, three structured discussions informed our understanding of how managers currently deal with climate change effects, the strategies being implemented to cope, and the barriers that limit climate change adaptation efforts. We used these insights to develop a multiday virtual workshop geared toward identifying potential adaptation strategies for managed wetlands. First, we developed a conceptual model to visualize how management actions are used to meet habitat objectives within wetland management systems. Next, we discussed how climate change may affect management actions and objectives; we used this understanding of potential effects to spatially assess vulnerability of managed wetlands to climate change. Using a scenario planning approach, we incorporated multiple potential future conditions and identified effects and adaptation strategies that could be considered for each scenario. As a result, several adaptation strategies for managed wetlands under dry and wet future scenarios were identified that can be applied when developing site-specific adaptation plans. Based on our piloted approach, we determined it would be important to have an adaptation team composed of scientists and managers to facilitate discussions, develop appropriate scenarios, and identify realistic adaptation options. We document the tools, findings, and adaptation thinking process taken to enhance adaptation efforts of managed wetlands. The adaptation thinking process can be applied to advance adaptation efforts in other habitats, ecosystems, and site-specific land management.

Open-File Report↗
USGS2018

Intraspecific niche models for ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa) suggest potential variability in population-level response to climate change

Unique responses to climate change can occur across intraspecific levels, resulting in individualistic adaptation or movement patterns among populations within a given species. Thus, the need to model potential responses among genetically distinct populations within a species is increasingly recognized. However, predictive models of future distributions are regularly fit at the species level, often because intraspecific variation is unknown or is identified only within limited sample locations. In this study, we considered the role of intraspecific variation to shape the geographic distribution of ponderosa pine ( Pinus ponderosa ), an ecologically and economically important tree species in North America. Morphological and genetic variation across the distribution of ponderosa pine suggest the need to model intraspecific populations: the two varieties (var. ponderosa and var. scopulorum ) and several haplotype groups within each variety have been shown to occupy unique climatic niches, suggesting populations have distinct evolutionary lineages adapted to different environmental conditions. We utilized a recently-available, geographically-widespread dataset of intraspecific variation (haplotypes) for ponderosa pine and a recently-devised lineage distance modeling approach to derive additional, likely intraspecific occurrence locations. We confirmed the relative uniqueness of each haplotype-climate relationship using a niche-overlap analysis, and developed ecological niche models (ENMs) to project the distribution for two varieties and eight haplotypes under future climate forecasts. Future projections of haplotype niche distributions generally revealed greater potential range loss than predicted for the varieties. This difference may reflect intraspecific responses of distinct evolutionary lineages. However, directional trends are generally consistent across intraspecific levels, and include a loss of distributional area and an upward shift in elevation. Our results demonstrate the utility in modeling intraspecific response to changing climate and they inform management and conservation strategies, by identifying haplotypes and geographic areas that may be most at risk, or most secure, under projected climate change.

Systematic Biology↗
USGS2023

Climate change hotspots and implications for the global subsea telecommunications network

A global network of subsea telecommunications cables underpins our daily lives, enabling >95% of global digital data transfer, $trillions/day in financial trading, and providing critical communications links, particularly to remote, low-income countries. Despite their importance, subsea cables and their landing stations are vulnerable to damage by natural hazards, including storm surges, waves, cyclones, earthquakes, floods, volcanic eruptions , submarine landslides and ice scour. However, the likelihood or recurrence interval of many of these types of events will likely change under future projected climate change scenarios, compounded by sea-level rise; potentially increasing hazard severity, creating previously unanticipated hazards, or hazards may shift to new locations during the 20–30-year operational life of cable systems. To date, no study has assessed the wide-reaching impacts of future climate change on subsea cables and landing stations on a global scale. Here, for the first time we synthesize the current evidence base, based on published peer-reviewed datasets, to fill this crucial knowledge gap, specifically to assess how and where future climate change is likely to impact subsea cables and their shore-based infrastructure. We find that ocean conditions are highly likely to change on a global basis as a result of climate change, but the feedbacks and links between climate change, natural processes and human activities are often complicated, resulting in a high degree of geographic variability. We identify climate change ‘hotspots’ (regions and locations likely to experience the greatest impacts) but find that not all areas will be affected in the same manner, nor synchronously by the same processes. We conclude that cable routes should carefully consider locally-variable drivers of hazard frequency and magnitude. Consideration should be given both to instantaneous events (e.g. landslides, tropical cyclones) as well as longer-term, sustained impacts (e.g. seabed currents that circulate even in deep water). Multiple factors can combine to increase the risk posed to subsea cables, hence a holistic approach is essential to assess the compounded effects of both natural processes and human activities in the future.

Earth Science Reviews↗
USGS2021

Process-based models and studies of coastal change to inform habitat restoration and climate change adaptation

Puget Sound salmon and estuary recovery strategies identify tens of thousands of acres of floodplain and estuary habitat restoration needed to re-establish ecosystem functions lost or degraded from western land use (Simenstad et al., 2011); the extent for nearshore habitat remains uncertain. Sediment is critical for shaping the structure and functions of these ecosystems and the success of many habitat recovery strategies. This is particularly important in the Pacific Northwest, where high sediment flux through the coastal zone makes it a more dynamic ecosystem driver than other regions where estuary restoration guidance has been developed and especially for extensive marshes and floodplains that have subsided due to lost sediment delivery from placement of flow control (flood protection) structures (Grossman et al., 2020). Fluvial sediment delivery to Puget Sound is expected to greatly increase in many systems under projected climate change (Lee et al., 2016), requiring better models and tools to evaluate complex ecosystem responses. Guidance for estuary habitat recovery (e.g., Clancy et al., 2009) rests on a paradigm of restoring historic habitats and connectivity by simply removing or lowering levees assuming sediment delivery and accumulation will occur. Outcomes of several restoration projects and studies show that restoring “opportunity” for sediment delivery may not be enough. Improved knowledge and predictive models of land-use and climate change effects on sediment budgets, sediment properties, and coastal change can refine restoration guidance to evaluate quantitative expectations for sediment flux, composition, accumulation, and timing critical to achieving more effective recovery, resilience, and community support.

Conference Paper↗
USGS2011

Climate change, uncertainty, and natural resource management

Climate change and its associated uncertainties are of concern to natural resource managers. Although aspects of climate change may be novel (e.g., system change and nonstationarity), natural resource managers have long dealt with uncertainties and have developed corresponding approaches to decision-making. Adaptive resource management is an application of structured decision-making for recurrent decision problems with uncertainty, focusing on management objectives, and the reduction of uncertainty over time. We identified 4 types of uncertainty that characterize problems in natural resource management. We examined ways in which climate change is expected to exacerbate these uncertainties, as well as potential approaches to dealing with them. As a case study, we examined North American waterfowl harvest management and considered problems anticipated to result from climate change and potential solutions. Despite challenges expected to accompany the use of adaptive resource management to address problems associated with climate change, we conclude that adaptive resource management approaches will be the methods of choice for managers trying to deal with the uncertainties of climate change. ?? 2010 The Wildlife Society.

Journal of Wildlife Management↗
USGS2008

Some guidelines for helping natural resources adapt to climate change

The changes occurring in mountain regions are an epitome of climate change. The dramatic shrinkage of major glaciers over the past century – and especially in the last 30 years – is one of several iconic images that have come to symbolize climate change. Climate creates the context for ecosystems, and climate variables strongly influence the structure, composition, and processes that characterize distinct ecosystems. Climate change, therefore, is having direct and indirect effects on species attributes, ecological interactions, and ecosystem processes. Because changes in the climate system will continue regardless of emissions mitigation, management strategies to enhance the resilience of ecosystems will become increasingly important. It is essential that management responses to climate change proceed using the best available science despite uncertainties associated with the future path of climate change, the response of ecosystems to climate effects, and the effects of management. Given these uncertainties, management adaptation will require flexibility to reflect our growing understanding of climate change impacts and management effectiveness.

IHDP Update↗
USGS2020

Effects of increased temperature on arctic slimy sculpin Cottus cognatus is mediated by food availability: Implications for climate change

Lakes are vulnerable to climate change, and warming rates in the Arctic are faster than anywhere on Earth. Fishes are sensitive to changing temperatures, which directly control physiological processes. Food availability should partly dictate responses to climate change because energetic demands change with temperature, but few studies have simultaneously examined temperature and food availability. We used a fully factorial experiment to test effects of food availability and temperature (7.6, 12.7, and 17.4°C; 50 days) on growth, consumption, respiration, and excretion, and effects of temperature (12 and 19.3°C; 27 days) on habitat use and growth of a common, but understudied, mid-level consumer, slimy sculpin Cottus cognatus , in arctic lakes. We also used bioenergetics modelling to predict consumptive demand under future warming scenarios. Growth rates were 3.4× higher at 12.7°C in high food compared to low food treatments, but the magnitude of differences depended on temperature. Within low food treatments, there was no statistical difference in growth rates among temperatures, suggesting food limitation. Consumption, respiration, and nitrogen excretion increased with temperature independent of food availability. Lower growth rates coincided with lower phosphorus excretion at the highest temperature, suggesting that fish selectively retained phosphorus at high temperatures and low food. In habitat choice experiments, fish were more likely to use the 12°C side of the tank, closely matching their optimal temperature. We predicted a 9% increase in consumption is required to maintain observed growth under a 4°C warming scenario. These results highlight considering changes in food resources and other associated indirect effects (e.g. excretion) that accompany changing temperatures with climate change. Depending on how food webs respond to warming, fish may cope with predicted warming if density-dependent feedback maintains population sizes.

Alaska↗
USGS2020

Forecasting the combined effects of anticipated climate change and agricultural conservation practices on fish recruitment dynamics in Lake Erie

Many aquatic ecosystems are experiencing multiple anthropogenic stressors that threaten their ability to support ecologically and economically important fish species. Two of the most ubiquitous stressors are climate change and non‐point source nutrient pollution. Agricultural conservation practices (ACPs, i.e. farming practices that reduce runoff, prevent erosion, and curb excessive nutrient loading) offer a potential means to mitigate the negative effects of non‐point source pollution on fish populations. However, our understanding of how ACP implementation amidst a changing climate will affect fish production in large ecosystems that receive substantial upstream sediment and nutrient inputs remains incomplete. Towards this end, we explored how anticipated climate change and the implementation of realistic ACPs might alter the recruitment dynamics of three fish populations (native walleye Sander vitreus and yellow perch Perca flavescens and invasive white perch Morone americana ) in the highly productive, dynamic west basin of Lake Erie. We projected future (2020–2065) recruitment under different combinations of anticipated climate change ( n = 2 levels) and ACP implementation ( n = 4 levels) in the western Lake Erie catchment using predictive biological models driven by forecasted winter severity, spring warming rate, and Maumee River total phosphorus loads that were generated from linked climate, catchment‐hydrology, and agricultural‐practice‐simulation models. In general, our models projected reduced walleye and yellow perch recruitment whereas invasive white perch recruitment was projected to remain stable or increase relative to the recent past. Our modelling also suggests the potential for trade‐offs, as ACP implementation was projected to reduce yellow perch recruitment with anticipated climate change. Overall, our study presents a useful modelling framework to forecast fish recruitment in Lake Erie and elsewhere, as well as offering projections and new avenues of research that could help resource management agencies and policy‐makers develop adaptive and resilient management strategies in the face of anticipated climate and land‐management change.

Michigan, Ohio, Indiana↗