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Compilation of Data to Support Development of a Pesticide Management Plan by the Yankton Sioux Tribe, Charles Mix County, South Dakota

The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency is working with the Yankton Sioux Tribe to develop a pesticide management plan to reduce potential for contamination of ground water that may result from the use of registered pesticides. The purpose of this study was to compile technical information to support development of a pesticide management plan by the Yankton Sioux Tribe for the area within the Yankton Sioux Reservation, Charles Mix County, South Dakota. Five pesticides (alachlor, atrazine, cyanazine, metolachlor, and simazine) were selected by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency for the management plan approach because they had been identified as probable or possible human carcinogens and they often had been associated with ground-water contamination in many areas and at high concentrations. This report provides a compilation of data to support development of a pesticide management plan. Available data sets are summarized in the text of this report, and actual data sets are provided in one Compact Disk?Read-Only Memory that is included with the report. The compact disk contains data sets pertinent to the development of a pesticide management plan. Pesticide use for the study area is described using information from state and national databases. Within South Dakota, pesticides commonly are applied to corn and soybean crops, which are the primary row crops grown in the study area. Water-quality analyses for pesticides are summarized for several surface-water sites. Pesticide concentrations in most samples were found to be below minimum reporting levels. Topographic data are presented in the form of 30-meter digital elevation model grids and delineation of drainage basins. Geohydrologic data are provided for the surficial deposits and the bedrock units. A high-resolution (30-by-30 meters) land-cover and land-use database is provided and summarized in a tabular format. More than 91 percent of the study area is used for row crops, pasture, or hay, and almost 6 percent of the study area is covered by water or wetlands. Average monthly and yearly precipitation data are summarized in a tabular format. Irrigation information associated with permitted and licensed diversion points is provided. A composite of aerial photographs of Charles Mix County is provided. This report also describes and summarizes the data sets and files, and how the data are relevant to development of a pesticide management plan.

Open-File Report

Gazetteer of hydrologic characteristics of streams in Massachusetts — Blackstone River basin

The Blackstone River basin encompasses 335 square miles in south-central Massachusetts, including parts of Bristol, Middlesex, Norfolk, and Worcester Counties. Drainage areas, using the latest available 1:24,000 scale topographic maps, were computed for the first time for streams draining more than 3 square miles and were recomputed for data-collection sites. Streamflow characteristics, were calculated using a new data base with records through 1980. These characteristics include annual and monthly flow statistics, duration of daily flow values, and the annual 7-day mean low flow at the 2-year and 10-year recurrence intervals. The 7-day, 10-year low-flow values are presented for 31 partial-record sites and the procedures used to determine the hydrologic characteristics of the basin are summarized. Basin characteristics representing 14 commonly used indices to estimate various streamflows are presented for the six gaged streams in the Blackstone River basin. This gazetteer will aid in the planning and siting of water-resources-related activities and will provide a common data base for governmental agencies and the engineering and planning communities.

Massachusetts, Rhode Island

New Jersey StreamStats: A web application for streamflow statistics and basin characteristics

StreamStats is an interactive, map-based web application from the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) that allows users to easily obtain streamflow statistics and watershed characteristics for both gaged and ungaged sites on streams throughout New Jersey. Users can determine flood magnitude and frequency, monthly flow-duration, monthly low-flow frequency statistics, and watershed characteristics for ungaged sites by selecting a point along a stream, or they can obtain this information for streamgages by selecting a streamgage location on the map. StreamStats provides several additional tools useful for water-resources planning and management, as well as for engineering purposes. StreamStats is available for most states and some river basins through a single web portal. Streamflow statistics for water resources professionals include the 1-percent annual chance flood flow (100-year peak flow) used to define flood plain areas and the monthly 7-day, 10-year low flow (M7D10Y) used in water supply management and studies of recreation, wildlife conservation, and wastewater dilution. Additionally, watershed or basin characteristics, including drainage area, percent area forested, and average percent of impervious areas, are commonly used in land-use planning and environmental assessments. These characteristics are easily derived through StreamStats.

New Jersey

A preliminary report of the geohydrology of the Mississippi salt-dome basin

The U.S. Department of Energy is investigating the suitability of salt domes in the Mississippi salt-dome basin as repositories for storing radioactive wastes. The Department of Energy has requested that the U.S. Geological Survey describe the groundwater hydrology of the Mississippi salt-dome basin, giving special attention to direction and rate of movement of water. In this first part of a continuing investigation the data obtained from one year of extensive literature search and data compilation are summarized. The regional groundwater hydrology in the salt-dome basin is defined with respect to (1) groundwater flow, (2) facies changes, (3) geological structure, (4) recharge and discharge, (5) freshwater-saltwater relations, and (6) identification of localities where additional data are needed. From the 50 piercement-type salt domes in the Mississippi salt-dome basin three domes (Richton, Cypress Creek, and Lampton) were selected for more intensive study. To further evaluate the geohydrology of Richton, Lampton, and Cypress Creek domes as possible sites for storage of radioactive waste, an intensive geohydrologic study based on a comprehensive test drilling program near the domes is planned. (USGS)

Mississippi

Plan of study to quantify the hydrologic relations between the Rio Grande and the Santa Fe Group aquifer system near Albuquerque, central New Mexico

The Albuquerque Basin in central New Mexico covers an area of about 3,060 square miles. Ground water from the Santa Fe Group aquifer system of the Albuquerque Basin is the principal source of water for municipal, domestic, commercial, and industrial uses in the Albuquerque area, an area of about 410 square miles. Ground- water withdrawal in the basin has increased from about 97,000 acre-feet in 1970 to about 171,000 acre-feet in 1994. About 92 percent of the 1994 total was withdrawn in the Albuquerque area. Management of ground water in the Albuquerque Basin is related to the surface water in the Rio Grande. Because the aquifer system is hydraulically connected to the Rio Grande and water in the river is fully appropriated, the ability to reliably estimate the effects of ground-water withdrawals on flow in the river is important. This report describes the components of the Rio Grande/Santa Fe Group aquifer system in the Albuquerque area and the data availability and data and interpretation needs relating to those components, and presents a plan of study to quantify the hydrologic relations between the Rio Grande and the Santa Fe Group aquifer system. The information needs related to the components of the river/aquifer system are prioritized. Information that is necessary to improve the understanding or quantification of a component in the river/aquifer system is prioritized as essential. Information that could add additional understanding of the system, but would not be necessary to improve the quantification of the system, is prioritized as useful. The study elements are prioritized in the same manner as the information needs; study elements designed to provide information considered necessary to improve the quantification of the system are prioritized as essential, and those designed to provide information that would add additional understanding of the system, but would not be necessary to improve the quantification of the system, are prioritized as useful.

Water-Resources Investigations Report

Columbia River food webs: Developing a broader scientific foundation for river restoration

The objectives of this report are to provide a fundamental understanding of aquatic food webs in the Columbia River Basin and to illustrate and summarize their influences on native fish restoration efforts. The spatial scope addresses tributaries, impoundments, the free-flowing Columbia and Snake rivers, as well as the estuary and plume. Achieving the Council's vision for the Columbia River Fish and Wildlife Program (NPCC 2009-09) of sustaining a "productive and diverse community" that provides "abundant" harvest, is best accomplished through a time-prioritized action plan, one that complements other approaches while addressing important challenges and uncertainties related to the Basin's food webs. Note that the oceanic food webs, although of immense importance in sustaining fish populations, are not considered beyond the plume since they involve an additional set of complex and rapidly evolving issues. An analysis of oceanic food webs of relevance to the Columbia River requires a separately focused effort (e.g., Hoegh- Guldberg and Bruno 2010).

Alberta;British Columbia;Idaho;Montana;Nevada;Oreg

Multiple-source tracking: Investigating sources of pathogens, nutrients, and sediment in the Upper Little River Basin, Kentucky, water years 2013–14

The South Fork Little River (SFLR) and the North Fork Little River (NFLR) are two major headwater tributaries that flow into the Little River just south of Hopkinsville, Kentucky. Both tributaries are included in those water bodies in Kentucky and across the Nation that have been reported with declining water quality. Each tributary has been listed by the Kentucky Energy and Environment Cabinet—Kentucky Division of Water in the 303(d) List of Waters for Kentucky Report to Congress as impaired by nutrients, pathogens, and sediment for contact recreation from point and nonpoint sources since 2002. In 2009, the Kentucky Energy and Environment Cabinet—Kentucky Division of Water developed a pathogen total maximum daily load (TMDL) for the Little River Basin including the SFLR and NFLR Basins. Future nutrient and suspended-sediment TMDLs are planned once nutrient criteria and suspended-sediment protocols have been developed for Kentucky. In this study, different approaches were used to identify potential sources of fecal-indicator bacteria (FIB), nitrate, and suspended sediment; to inform the TMDL process; and to aid in the implementation of effective watershed-management activities. The main focus of source identification was in the SFLR Basin. To begin understanding the potential sources of fecal contamination, samples were collected at 19 sites for densities of FIB ( E. coli ) in water and fluvial sediment and at 11 sites for Bacteroidales genetic markers (General AllBac, human HF183, ruminant BoBac, canid BacCan, and waterfowl GFD) during the recreational season (May through October) in 2013 and 2014. Results indicated 34 percent of all E. coli water samples ( n =227 samples) did not meet the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency 2012 recommended national criteria for primary recreational waters. No criterion currently exists for E. coli in fluvial sediment. By use of the Spearman’s rank correlation test, densities of FIB in fluvial sediments were observed to have a statistically significant positive correlation with drainage area. As drainage area increased, so did the densities of FIB in the fluvial sediments. There was no statistically significant correlation between drainage area and FIB in water. The human-associated marker (HF183) was found above the detection limit in 26 percent of the samples ( n =120 samples); a higher proportion of positive samples was in the NFLR Basin. The ruminant-associated marker (BoBac) was above the detection limit in 65 percent of samples; a higher proportion of positive samples was in the headwaters of the SFLR Basin. Nutrient yields differed between the SFLR and NFLR Basins. Comparatively, the SFLR Basin produced the largest estimated mean yields of total nitrogen (16,000 pounds per year per square mile (lb/yr/mi 2 ) and nitrite plus nitrate nitrogen (12,500 lb/yr/mi 2 ), and the NFLR Basin produced the largest estimated mean yields of ammonia plus organic nitrogen (4,700 lb/yr/mi 2 ), total phosphorus (1,100 lb/yr/mi 2 ), and orthophosphorus (590 lb/yr/mi 2 ). Nitrate sources in surface water were assessed in both basins using dual-nitrate isotope (nitrogen and oxygen) ratios. Data from the different land uses in the SFLR Basin showed differences in nitrate concentrations and overlapping, but moderately distinct, isotopic signatures. Predominantly forested sites consistently had low nitrate concentrations (median = 0.233 milligrams per liter) with minimal variability, and agricultural sites had the highest nitrate concentrations (median = 7.55 milligrams per liter) with the greatest variability. The median nitrate concentration for sites with mixed land use was 2.66 milligrams per liter. Dual-isotope data for forested sites plotted within ranges characteristic of soil-derived nitrate with possible but minimal influence from recycled atmospheric nitrate. Ranges of dual-isotope data for sites with agricultural and mixed land uses were characteristic of possible mixtures of chemical fertilizer, soil-derived nitrate, and manure and septic wastes. In the NFLR Basin, a positive linear relation was observed between nitrate concentrations and nitrogen isotope ratios (δ 15 N NO3 ) (R 2 =0.56; p -value <0.001) that potentially suggests the NFLR Basin has a higher proportion of δ 15 N NO3 -enriched sources, such as manure and sewage. However, mixing of other nitrate-derived sources cannot be excluded, because many values of δ 15 N NO3 and concentrations of nitrate showed minimal variation and plotted within dual-nitrate isotope ranges characteristic of fertilizer and soil-derived nitrate sources. A sediment-fingerprinting approach was used to quantify the relative contribution of four upland sources in the SFLR Basin (agricultural, pasture, riparian/forest, and streambank) to understand how land management affects suspended-sediment concentration. Carbon isotope ratios (δ 13 C), together with calcium and carbon concentrations, were the best indicators of sediment source; the uncertainty was less than 11 percent. Fine-sediment samples collected at the SFLR Basin outlet indicated streambanks as the largest source of the fine sediment to the stream followed by cropland and riparian/forest-source areas, respectively; pasture was a minor contributing source. Streambanks and cropland were essentially equal contributors of fine sediment at the NFLR Basin outlet.

Kentucky

Science implementation of Forecast Mekong for food and environmental security

Forecast Mekong is a significant international thrust under the Delta Research and Global Observation Network (DRAGON) of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and was launched in 2009 by the U.S. Department of State and the Foreign Ministers of Cambodia, Laos, Thailand, and Vietnam under U.S. Department of State Secretary Hillary R. Clinton's Lower Mekong Initiative to enhance U.S. engagement with countries of the Lower Mekong River Basin in the areas of environment, health, education, and infrastructure. Since 2009, the USGS has worked closely with the U.S. Department of State; personnel from Cambodia, Laos, Thailand, and Vietnam; nongovernmental organizations; and academia to collect and use research and data from the Lower Mekong River Basin to provide hands-on results that will help decisionmakers in future planning and design for restoration, conservation, and management efforts in the Lower Mekong River Basin. In 2012 Forecast Mekong is highlighting the increasing cooperation between the United States and Lower Mekong River Basin countries in the areas of food and environmental security. Under the DRAGON, Forecast Mekong continues work in interactive data integration, modeling, and visualization system by initiating three-dimensional bathymetry and river flow data along with a pilot study of fish distribution, population, and migratory patterns in the Lower Mekong River Basin. When fully developed by the USGS, in partnership with local governments and universities throughout the Mekong River region, Forecast Mekong will provide valuable planning tools to visualize the consequences of climate change and river management.

Phnom Penh

Southwest principal aquifers regional ground-water quality assessment

The National Water-Quality Assessment (NAWQA) Program of the U.S. Geological Survey is conducting a regional analysis of water quality in the principal aquifers in the southwestern United States. The Southwest Principal Aquifers (SWPA) study is building a better understanding of the susceptibility and vulnerability of basin-fill aquifers in the region to ground-water contamination by synthesizing the baseline knowledge of ground-water quality conditions in 15 basins previously studied by the NAWQA Program. The improved understanding of aquifer susceptibility and vulnerability to contamination is assisting in the development of tools that water managers can use to assess and protect the quality of ground-water resources. This fact sheet provides an overview of the basin-fill aquifers in the southwestern United States and description of the completed and planned regional analyses of ground-water quality being performed by the SWPA study.

Arizona, California, Colorado, Idaho, Nevada, New

Water-resources investigations of the U.S. Geological Survey in Colorado; fiscal year 1980

Water-resources data-collection activities for October 1, 1979, through September 30, 1980, are summarized for Colorado and bordering States. Fifty-four interpretive hydrologic investigations include: 9 statewide investigations, 6 regional investigations, 11 investigations in the Missouri River basin, 7 investigations in the Arkansas River basin, 3 investigations in the Rio Grande basin, 16 investigations in the Colorado River basin, and 2 multistate investigations. The summaries of the investigations consist of a map showing the location of the areas of investigations and a brief description of the investigation's purpose, objective, approach, progress, and plans.

Colorado

Quality of water of the Colorado River, 1925-40

The study of the quality of water of the Colorado River and its tributaries has been a continuing one since 1925. The data so obtained have been useful in the planning and construction of dams and reservoirs, the utilization of the water within the basin, and in planning the economy of areas outside of the basin, partially or wholly dependent on the diversion or importation of water from the Colorado River or its tributaries. Much chemical quality data of the Colorado River and its tributaries collected during the period from 1925 to 1940 have not been published in detail. The purpose of this report is to make available for consultation and ready reference those previously unpublished data collected for the period 1925 to 1940, mainly between 1930 and 1940. Included among these data are many detailed chemical analyses of composites of daily samples and single samples of the Colorado River and its main tributaries and less detailed analyses of many other samples. In a few instances, for continuity of the record, analyses are included that have been published in Survey reports. Discussions of the quality of water of the Colorado River basin either in published reports or in mimeograph form are available; therefore, this report will include only tabulated data. Data obtained for the period 1925 to 1930 for the most part were published in three Geological Survey Water-Supply Papers, 596-B, 636-A, and 638-D, all out of print. Summary data for the streams in the Colorado River basin for the period 1925 to 1943 were published in U.S. Geological Survey Water-Supply Paper 970, "Quality of surface waters of the United States, 1943". These summaries consist mainly of annual weighted averages of chemical analyses, dissolved-solids loads, and extremes of dissolved solids and hardness. Analyses of samples from Lake Mead are available in a series of reports, "Lake Mead Density Currents Investigations", by the Bureau of Reclamation /1937 -1940, Vols. I and ll; 1940 -1946; Vol. III/. Data on the suspended sediment in the Colorado River for the period 1925-1941 were published in 1947, in U.S. Geological Survey Water -Supply Paper 998. Since 1940 results of water-quality investigations in the Colorado River basin have been published in the annual U.S. Geological Survey reports, "Quality of surface waters of the United States".

Colorado River

Sensitivity of water resources in the Delaware River basin to climate variability and change

Because of the greenhouse effect, projected increases in atmospheric carbon dioxide levels might cause global warming, which in turn could result in changes in precipitation patterns and evapotranspiration and in increases in sea level. This report describes the greenhouse effect; discusses the problems and uncertainties associated with the detection, prediction, and effects of climate change; and presents the results of sensitivity analyses of how climate change might affect water resources in the Delaware River basin. Sensitivity analyses suggest that potentially serious shortfalls of certain water resources in the basin could result if some scenarios for climate change come true . The results of model simulations of the basin streamflow demonstrate the difficulty in distinguishing the effects that climate change versus natural climate variability have on streamflow and water supply . The future direction of basin changes in most water resources, furthermore, cannot be precisely determined because of uncertainty in current projections of regional temperature and precipitation . This large uncertainty indicates that, for resource planning, information defining the sensitivities of water resources to a range of climate change is most relevant . The sensitivity analyses could be useful in developing contingency plans for evaluating and responding to changes, should they occur.

Water Supply Paper

Modeled streamflow metrics on small, ungaged stream reaches in the Upper Colorado River Basin

Modeling streamflow is an important approach for understanding landscape-scale drivers of flow and estimating flows where there are no streamgage records. In this study conducted by the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with Colorado State University, the objectives were to model streamflow metrics on small, ungaged streams in the Upper Colorado River Basin and identify streams that are potentially threatened with becoming intermittent under drier climate conditions. The Upper Colorado River Basin is a region that is critical for water resources and also projected to experience large future climate shifts toward a drying climate. A random forest modeling approach was used to model the relationship between streamflow metrics and environmental variables. Flow metrics were then projected to ungaged reaches in the Upper Colorado River Basin using environmental variables for each stream, represented as raster cells, in the basin. Last, the projected random forest models of minimum flow coefficient of variation and specific mean daily flow were used to highlight streams that had greater than 61.84 percent minimum flow coefficient of variation and less than 0.096 specific mean daily flow and suggested that these streams will be most threatened to shift to intermittent flow regimes under drier climate conditions. Map projection products can help scientists, land managers, and policymakers understand current hydrology in the Upper Colorado River Basin and make informed decisions regarding water resources. With knowledge of which streams are likely to undergo significant drying in the future, managers and scientists can plan for stream-dependent ecosystems and human water users.

Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico, Utah, Wyoming

Water-quality data and trends in the Rapid Creek Basin, South Dakota, 1970–2020

Surface-water-quality data in the Rapid Creek Basin in South Dakota were compiled to assess basic trends in the water quality of Rapid Creek. Spatial and temporal patterns in water quality were described for major ions, sediment, total suspended solids, nutrients, field measurements, bacteria, and select metals for the period of 1970–2020, and a water-quality trend analysis was completed for sites with enough data for selected constituents. Major ions and total suspended solids had higher median concentrations in the lower basin (downstream from the city of Rapid City) relative to the upper and middle basins. Nutrient concentrations were generally low, and increased concentrations were only detected at the sites downstream from the City of Rapid City Water Reclamation Facility. Fecal indicator bacteria ( Escherichia coli and fecal coliform) concentrations were highest downstream from the main urbanized area of Rapid City. Water-quality trends were analyzed for total dissolved solids, specific conductance, calcium, magnesium, total suspended solids, total phosphorus, dissolved phosphorus, and total Kjeldahl nitrogen for the period of 1979–2019. Concentrations for major ions and total dissolved solids typically changed by less than 15 percent. Total dissolved solids concentrations upstream from Rapid City were generally decreasing, whereas concentrations downstream were generally increasing. The flow-averaged geometric mean concentration of total dissolved solids at three sites upstream from Rapid City decreased overall by 3–5 percent, and concentrations at two sites downstream from Rapid City increased by at least 7 percent between 1979 and 2019. Trends in specific conductance in the Rapid Creek Basin were mixed with alternating increasing and decreasing trends at many of the sites between 1979 and 2014. Total suspended solids concentrations were observed to be decreasing at two sites analyzed for trends. Concentrations in total phosphorus were observed to be decreasing at every site analyzed for trends between 1989 and 2014. Significant downward trends in total Kjeldahl nitrogen were observed at two sites in the lower Rapid Creek Basin for the trend period of 1999–2019. The decreases in total suspended solids and nutrient concentrations in the Rapid Creek Basin could be related to several processes such as the implementation of a stormwater management plan in Rapid City, improvements to the water reclamation facility downstream from Rapid City, and residual climatic effects.

South Dakota

Status and trends monitoring of the mainstem Columbia River: sample frame development and review of programs relevant to the development of an integrated approach to monitoring

Implementing an Integrated Status and Trends Monitoring program (ISTM) for the mainstem Columbia River will help identify trends in important natural resources and help us understand the long-term collective effects of management actions. In this report, we present progress towards the completion of a stepwise process that will facilitate the development of an ISTM for the mainstem Columbia River. We discuss planning and regulatory documents that can be used to identify monitoring goals and objectives and present existing monitoring and research activities that should be considered as the development of a Columbia River ISTM proceeds. We also report progress towards the development of sample frames for the Columbia and Snake Rivers and their floodplains. The sample frames were formulated using Digital Elevation Models (DEM’s) of the river channel and upland areas and a Generalized Random-Tessellation Stratified (GRTS) algorithm for an area based resource to generate “master sample(s).” Working with the Pacific Northwest Aquatic Monitoring Partnership (PNAMP) we facilitated the transfer of the sample frames to the PNAMP “Monitoring Sample Designer” tool. We then discuss aspects of response and survey designs as they pertain to the formulation of a mainstem Columbia River ISTM. As efforts to formulate an ISTM for the mainstem Columbia River proceed, practitioners should utilize the extensive literature describing the planning and implementation of fish and wildlife mitigation and recovery efforts in the Columbia River Basin. While we make progress towards establishing an ISTM framework, considerable work needs to be done to formulate an ISTM program for the mainstem Columbia River. Long-term monitoring programs have been established for other large rivers systems; scientists that have experience planning, implementing, and maintaining large river monitoring efforts such as those in the Colorado, Illinois, and Mississippi Rivers should be consulted and involved as efforts proceed.

Idaho;Oregon;Washington

Land use in, and water quality of, the Pea Hill Arm of Lake Gaston, Virginia and North Carolina, 1988-90

The City of Virginia Beach currently (1994) supplies water to about 400,000 people in southeastern Virginia. The city plans to withdraw water from the Pea Hill Arm of Lake Gaston to meet projected water needs of the population to the year 2030. The purpose of this report is to (1) describe the temporal and spatial distribution of selected water-quality constituents, (2) document current (1989) land use and land cover in the Pea Hill Arm drainage basin, and (3) discuss relations, if any, between the quality of water in the inlets within the Pea Hill Arm and land uses. The report focuses on water-quality problems in the basin, including changes in concentrations of major ions, nutrients, and algae associated with urban development adjacent to water bodies. The Pea Hill Arm was classified as mesotrophic on the basis of the range of concentrations of total phosphorus (0.001 to 0.61 milligrams per liter); the range of concentrations of total organic-plus-ammonia nitrogen (0.2 to 1.4 milligrams per liter); and the range of concentrations of chlorophyll a (1.4 to 56 micrograms per liter). These water-quality data were collected at 3 feet below the water surface during water years 1989-90. Thermal stratification in Pea Hill Arm generally began in April and ended in September. Water below a depth of about 25 feet generally became anoxic by June. Destratification generally began in late September and was completed by November. Lake Gaston followed the same general stratification and destratification pattern as Pea Hill Arm, except Lake Gaston was partially destratified during the summer when large amounts of water were released from John H. Kerr Reservoir and Lake Gaston Dams. During water year 1988, streamflows were 33 percent below the long-term mean-annual streamflows at one of the major streams to Lake Gaston. Low streamflows contributed to elevated specific conductances and concentrations of sodium, calcium, magnesium, and alkalinity from October 1988 to February 1989 at sampling stations in the Pea Hill Arm and Lake Gaston. About 75 percent of the land use in the Pea Hill Arm is forest land. The remaining 25 percent of the Pea Hill Arm drainage basin is 8 percent pasture/open land, 8 percent open water, 6 percent residential land, and 3 percent cropland. No statistical relations are present between water-quality constituents measured and developed land uses within 11 basins in the Pea Hill Arm Basin, except during periods of stormwater runoff. During a stormwater-runoff event, there was a relation between total nitrite plus nitrate and land use (Kendall's tau correlation coefficient of 0.69). The relation between the developed land use and total nitrite plus nitrate can also be related to the increased ground-water inputs during high base-flow periods. Spatial differences in water-quality constituents as determined by Wilcoxon (matched-pairs) signed-rank tests and cluster analyses were longitudinal and primarily grouped into riverine, transition, and lacustrine zones. These zones were grouped on the basis of flow characteristics and nutrient concentrations.

North Carolina, Virginia

Sensitivity of water resources in the Delaware River basin to climate variability and change

Because of the "greenhouse effect," projected increases in atmospheric carbon dioxide levels might cause global warming, which in turn could result in changes in precipitation patterns and evapotranspiration and in increases in sea level. This report describes the greenhouse effect; discusses the problems and uncertainties associated with the detection, prediction, and effects of climatic change, and presents the results of sensitivity-analysis studies of the potential effects of climate change on water resources in the Delaware River basin. On the basis of sensitivity analyses, potentially serious shortfalls of certain water resources in the basin could result if some climatic-change scenarios become true. The results of basin streamflow-model simulations in this study demonstrate the difficulty in distinguishing effects of climatic change on streamflow and water supply from effects of natural variability in current climate. The future direction of basin changes in most water resources, furthermore, cannot be determined precisely because of uncertainty in current projections of regional temperature and precipitation. This large uncertainty indicates that, for resource planning, information defining the sensitivities of water resources to a range of climate change is most relevant. The sensitivity analyses could be useful in developing contingency plans on how to evaluate and respond to changes, should they occur.

Delaware;New Jersey;Pennsylvania

Hydrograph simulation models of the Hillsborough and Alafia Rivers, Florida: a preliminary report

Mathematical (digital) models that simulate flood hydrographs from rainfall records have been developed for the following gaging stations in the Hillsborough and Alafia River basins of west-central Florida: Hillsborough River near Tampa, Alafia River at Lithia, and north Prong Alafia River near Keysville. These models, which were developed from historical streamflow and and rainfall records, are based on rainfall-runoff and unit-hydrograph procedures involving an arbitrary separation of the flood hydrograph. These models assume the flood hydrograph to be composed of only two flow components, direct (storm) runoff, and base flow. Expressions describing these two flow components are derived from streamflow and rainfall records and are combined analytically to form algorithms (models), which are programmed for processing on a digital computing system. Most Hillsborough and Alafia River flood discharges can be simulated with expected relative errors less than or equal to 30 percent and flood peaks can be simulated with average relative errors less than 15 percent. Because of the inadequate rainfall network that is used in obtaining input data for the North Prong Alafia River model, simulated peaks are frequently in error by more than 40 percent, particularly for storms having highly variable areal rainfall distribution. Simulation errors are the result of rainfall sample errors and, to a lesser extent, model inadequacy. Data errors associated with the determination of mean basin precipitation are the result of the small number and poor areal distribution of rainfall stations available for use in the study. Model inadequacy, however, is attributed to the basic underlying theory, particularly the rainfall-runoff relation. These models broaden and enhance existing water-management capabilities within these basins by allowing the establishment and implementation of programs providing for continued development in these areas. Specifically, the models serve not only as a basis for forecasting floods, but also for simulating hydrologic information needed in flood-plain mapping and delineating and evaluating alternative flood control and abatement plans.

Florida