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At least 181 records · Page 10Linked to original sources
USGS2010

Faunal assemblages and multi-scale habitat patterns in headwater tributaries of the South Fork Trinity River - an unregulated river embedded within a multiple-use landscape

Headwaters can represent 80% of stream kilometers in a watershed, and they also have unique physical and biological properties that have only recently been recognized for their importance in sustaining healthy functioning stream networks and their ecological services. We sampled 60 headwater tributaries in the South Fork Trinity River, a 2,430 km2, mostly forested, multiple-use watershed in northwestern California. Our objectives were: (1) to differentiate unique headwater types using 69 abiotic and vegetation variables measured at three spatial scales, and then to reduce these to informative subsets; (2) determine if distinct biota occupied the different tributary types; (3) determine the environmental attributes associated with the presence and abundance of these biotic assemblages; and (4) using niche modeling, determine key attribute thresholds to illustrate how these biota could be employed as metrics of system integrity and ecological services. Several taxa were sufficiently abundant and widespread to use as bio-indicators: the presence and abundance of steelhead trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss), herpetofauna (reptile and amphibian) species richness, and signal crayfish (Pacifastacus leniusculus) represented different trophic positions, value as commercial resources (steelhead), sensitivity to environmental stress (amphibians), and indicators of biodiversity (herpetofauna species richness). Herpetofauna species richness did not differ, but abundances of steelhead trout, signal crayfish, and amphibian richness all differed significantly among tributary types. Niche models indicated that distribution and abundance patterns in both riparian and aquatic environments were associated with physical and structural attributes at multiple spatial scales, both within and around reaches. The bio-indicators responded to unique sets of attributes, reflecting the high environmental heterogeneity in headwater tributaries across this large watershed. These niche attributes represented a wide range of headwater environments, indicating responses to a number of natural and anthropogenic conditions, and demonstrated the value of using a suite of bio-indicators to elucidate watershed conditions, and to examine numerous disturbances that may influence ecological integrity.

Animal Biodiversity and Conservation↗
USGS1995

Non-native animals on public lands

Non-native plants and animals have become part of our surroundings, in cities, agricultural areas, and wildlands. While there are many beneficial purposes for non-native animals, such as for food and sport hunting and as agricultural animals, the introduction of some has had major negative economic consequences (Palmer 1899), and adverse effects on native wildlife, plants, and habitats. The British ecologist Charles Elton, in a major review of introduced species, described the increasing number of invasions as constituting "one of the great historical convulsions in the world's flora and fauna" (Elton 1958, p. 31). Non-native species are significant problems on large areas of state and federal public lands, and areas set aside to protect native plant and animal communities are not immune to such harm. Science and conservation journals have devoted entire issues to the threats posed by non-native plants and animals in nature reserves (e.g., Usher et al. 1988). In a compilation of threats to U.S. national parks, non-native plants and animals were the most often reported threat, and were reported by the most areas; feral cats ( Felis catus ), feral dogs ( Canis familiaris ), and wild pigs ( Sus scrofa ) were the non-native animals cited most often (NPCA 1977). Non-native species present serious threats, but at the same time, coordinated efforts on public lands offer the best possibility for controlling some harmful non-native species, and protecting both native plant and animal communities and human interests and needs. We compiled information on non-native animals on public and private land-management areas by conducting a mail survey to assess their occurrence and management status in land-management areas. Survey results represent contributions from 937 national parks, national forests, national wildlife refuges, Bureau of Land Management field areas, and state and private land-management areas. The results reflect those species that land managers considered of greatest concern, and their general distribution on public lands. Non-native invertebrate animals, particularly forest insects and agricultural pests, cause severe economic and environmental damage as well (OTA 1993), but were not the focus of this survey.

Book chapter↗
USGS2019

Overhauling ocean spatial planning to improve marine megafauna conservation

Tracking data have led to evidence-based conservation of marine megafauna, but a disconnect remains between the many thousands of individual animals that have been tracked and the use of these data in conservation and management actions. Furthermore, the focus of most conservation efforts is within Exclusive Economic Zones despite the ability of these species to move thousands of kilometres across multiple national jurisdictions. To assist the goal of the United Nations General Assembly’s recent effort to negotiate a global treaty to conserve biodiversity on the high seas, we propose the development of a new frontier in dynamic marine spatial management. We argue that a global approach combining tracked movements of marine megafauna and human activities at-sea, and using existing and emerging technologies (e.g., through new tracking devices and big data approaches) can be applied to deliver near real-time diagnostics on existing risks and threats to mitigate global risks for marine megafauna. With technology developments over the next decade expected to catalyse the potential to survey marine animals and human activities in ever more detail and at global scales, the development of dynamic predictive tools based on near real-time tracking and environmental data will become crucial to address increasing risks. Such global tools for dynamic spatial and temporal management will, however, require extensive synoptic data updates and will be dependent on a shift to a culture of data sharing and open access. We propose a global mechanism to store and make such data available in near real-time, enabling a holistic view of space use by marine megafauna and humans that would significantly accelerate efforts to mitigate impacts and improve conservation and management of marine megafauna.

Frontiers in Marine Science↗
USGS2023

Prioritizing the risk and management of introduced species in a landscape with high indigenous biodiversity

Risk analysis protocols for prioritizing the management of non-native species are numerous, yet few incorporate risk and management in the same analysis or accommodate a broad diversity of taxa outside of a specific geographic area. We adapted a protocol that accounts for these factors to address non-native animal species in the Southern California/Northern Baja California Coast Ecoregion near the international border in San Diego County, an area with high indigenous biodiversity and high numbers of species of conservation concern. This stepwise, semi-quantitative protocol is applicable to any animal group in any predefined geographic area, relies on consensus-building among taxonomic experts, and has been vetted through previous use and in peer-reviewed literature. Our results show that the final prioritization was driven mainly by management feasibility, with top-ranked species having multitrophic effects that favor other non-native invaders over native residents. Conditions within the assessment area required some modification to the protocol as it was originally designed, namely a shift in emphasis from eradication to control, given that eradication is implausible for most non-native species in the assessment area. We call attention to taxon-specific issues that surfaced during the analysis, identify areas for improvement in this first-ever risk assessment for invasive animal species in the Natural Communities Conservation Plan/Habitat Conservation Plan (NCCP/HCP) reserve system of San Diego County, and provide suggestions for further refinement of the protocol. This study builds on the effort to standardize risk analysis for invasive species globally, given that many of the same invaders present threats to indigenous biodiversity worldwide.

California↗
USGS2014

Where the bison roam: public-private partnership supports potential restoration

A little over one hundred years ago, plains bison were prolific in the Great American West. Reports describe herds containing thousands of animals migrating through the central and western states, totaling 20–30 million across their entire range. With commercial, unregulated hunting in the late 1800s came the rapid demise of bison to barely more than 1,000 by 18891. Recently, renewed interest in restoring these massive animals to at least some of their former range has grown. Efforts are being made to establish “conservation herds”—herds that are specifically managed in the public interest by governments and environmental organizations. For the plains bison native to the United States, there are approximately 19,000 animals comprising 54 known conservation herds.

Report↗
USGS2013

Cumulative biological impacts framework for solar energy projects in the California Desert

This project developed analytical approaches, tools and geospatial data to support conservation planning for renewable energy development in the California deserts. Research focused on geographical analysis to avoid, minimize and mitigate the cumulative biological effects of utility-scale solar energy development. A hierarchical logic model was created to map the compatibility of new solar energy projects with current biological conservation values. The research indicated that the extent of compatible areas is much greater than the estimated land area required to achieve 2040 greenhouse gas reduction goals. Species distribution models were produced for 65 animal and plant species that were of potential conservation significance to the Desert Renewable Energy Conservation Plan process. These models mapped historical and projected future habitat suitability using 270 meter resolution climate grids. The results were integrated into analytical frameworks to locate potential sites for offsetting project impacts and evaluating the cumulative effects of multiple solar energy projects. Examples applying these frameworks in the Western Mojave Desert ecoregion show the potential of these publicly-available tools to assist regional planning efforts. Results also highlight the necessity to explicitly consider projected land use change and climate change when prioritizing areas for conservation and mitigation offsets. Project data, software and model results are all available online.

California↗
USGS2024

Common-garden experiment reveals outbreeding depression and region-of-origin effects on reproductive success in a frequently translocated tortoise

Human-mediated animal movement can expose wildlife populations to novel environments. Phenotypic plasticity can buffer against the challenges presented by novel environments, while adaptation to local ecosystems may limit resilience in novel ecosystems. Outbreeding depression during the mixing of disparate gene pools can also reduce reproductive success after long-distance movement. Here, we use a ‘common-garden’ population of gopher tortoises ( Gopherus polyphemus ), translocated from numerous sites across the state of Florida, USA, to a mitigation site in the north-west (panhandle) region to assess whether geographic origin, outbreeding effects, and behavioral plasticity influence reproductive success in this threatened keystone species. We found that females from north-east Florida produced clutches with lower hatching success than females from other regions. We detected regional differentiation in nest site selection behavior in the common environment of the translocation site, though these differences did not mediate the regional effect on hatching success. We also found evidence for outbreeding depression: hatching success declined with increasing parental geographic and genetic distances, dropping from 93% to 67% across the range of observed parental genetic distances. Together, these results suggest that newly admixed populations may suffer reproductive costs due to historical population differentiation, and that undetected outbreeding depression could significantly hamper conservation efforts for this species and others undergoing a variety of human-mediated movements.

Florida↗
USGS2018

Density estimation of sound-producing terrestrial animals using single automatic acoustic recorders and distance sampling

Obtaining accurate information on the distribution, density, and abundance of animals is an important first step toward their conservation. Methodological approaches using automatic acoustic recorders for species that communicate acoustically are gaining increased interest because of their advantages over traditional sampling methods. In this study, we created and evaluated a protocol to estimate population density, which can be used to compute abundance of terrestrial sound-producing animals from single automatic acoustic recorders and using an automatic detection algorithm. The protocol uses cue rates from the target species, environmental conditions, and an estimate of the distance of the individual to the recorder based on the power of the received sound. We applied our protocol to estimate the density of a Hawaiian forest bird species (Hawaiˊi ˊAmakihi [ Chlorodrepanis virens ]) on the island of Hawaiˊi, USA. We validated our approach by comparing our density estimates with those calculated at the same stations using a traditional point-transect distance sampling method based on human observations. Overall density estimates based on recorded signals were lower than those based on human observations, but 95% confidence intervals of the two density estimates overlapped. This study presents a relatively simple but effective protocol for estimating animal density using single automatic acoustic recorders. Our protocol may easily be adapted to other sound-emitting terrestrial animals.

Avian Conservation and Ecology↗
USGS2008

The desperate dozen: Fishes on the brink

IT IS NO SECRET THAT OUR NATIVE AQUATIC ANIMALS ARE IN DECLINE. There are currently 582 species of animals on the Federal list of endangered and threatened species, 268 of these (46%) are found in freshwater habitats. Of the amazing assemblage of 675 fishes found in southeastern waters, more than a quarter are considered imperiled. While all of the Earth’s ecosystems are in trouble, freshwater habitats are recognized to be at severe risk because of their scarcity and the high demands placed on them by humans. The combined effects of agriculture, damming, dredging, construction, logging, overharvest, and pollution are destroying this critical resource for animals, plants, and even ourselves. This major conservation crisis calls for immediate action to conserve and protect the remaining populations and their habitats. The Southeastern Fishes Council (SFC), a nonprofit scientific organization dedicated to the study and conservation of freshwater and coastal fishes of the southeastern United States, is one of the many organizations attempting to reverse the decline of our southeast aquatic habitats and their rich biodiversity. One of the most important steps in conservation is prioritization. The SFC sought to determine where conservation actions would have the largest impact on preventing loss of our freshwater diversity. We decided to focus our efforts on the Desperate Dozen, the 12 fish species we identified as most likely to become extinct in the Southeast. We chose this list in order to reverse their precipitous decline and assist in putting them on the path to recovery. These twelve species are not currently economically important to humans, and their extinction could easily go unnoticed by all but conservation biologists and ichthyologists. Even so, their conservation matters. These species are the canaries in the coal mine, alerting us to the problem that something is very, very wrong in our backyards. Fishes that were once widespread in larger rivers, such as the diamond darter, are now suffering from the same water quality issues that cause harm to humans. Fishes that were once used for commercial gain, such as the Alabama sturgeon, are now too rare for harvest. We have ignored our freshwater to the point where we no longer remember that rivers used to be more common than reservoirs in the Southeast, and our diversity was a resource worth protecting. It is SFC’s goal to use this list to raise awareness of the plight of our freshwater habitats in the Southeast, which include rivers, creeks, wetlands, springs, and caves. The current crisis requires education, communication, and coordination among our neighbors. We have to learn how to prevent harm to our watersheds and develop new collaborations between private and public entities to promote wise development. By highlighting these twelve species, ranging from the spring pygmy sunfish to the Alabama sturgeon, we hope to encourage these partnerships to address the needs of our freshwater animals and hopefully prevent them from slipping quietly into extinction. SFC created a list of the most imperiled southeastern fishes by considering species with the highest risk of extinction. Criteria used, in order of importance, was distribution (a single population ranked highest), low abundance, and severity of threats. After the ranking based on level of imperilment, species were arranged in phylogenetic order so that all would receive equal attention. Experts on each species provided brief accounts on the Desperate Dozen, which include background, distribution, abundance, threats, and proposed conservation actions. The U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS) was not consulted in SFC’s identification of the Desperate Dozen fishes, as we intentionally chose to work as an independent scientific panel under the criteria stated above.

Report↗
USGS2010

Balancing forest-regeneration probabilities and maintenance costs in dry grasslands of high conservation priority

Abandonment of agricultural land has resulted in forest regeneration in species-rich dry grasslands across European mountain regions and threatens conservation efforts in this vegetation type. To support national conservation strategies, we used a site-selection algorithm (MARXAN) to find optimum sets of floristic regions (reporting units) that contain grasslands of high conservation priority. We sought optimum sets that would accommodate 136 important dry-grassland species and that would minimize forest regeneration and costs of management needed to forestall predicted forest regeneration. We did not consider other conservation elements of dry grasslands, such as animal species richness, cultural heritage, and changes due to climate change. Optimal sets that included 95–100% of the dry grassland species encompassed an average of 56–59 floristic regions (standard deviation, SD 5). This is about 15% of approximately 400 floristic regions that contain dry-grassland sites and translates to 4800–5300 ha of dry grassland out of a total of approximately 23,000 ha for the entire study area. Projected costs to manage the grasslands in these optimum sets ranged from CHF (Swiss francs) 5.2 to 6.0 million/year. This is only 15–20% of the current total estimated cost of approximately CHF30–45 million/year required if all dry grasslands were to be protected. The grasslands of the optimal sets may be viewed as core sites in a national conservation strategy.

Conservation Biology↗
USGS2022

Antibiotic resistance in free-ranging wildlife

In this chapter, we provide an overview of antimicrobial resistant (AMR) bacteria in wildlife through the presentation of general trends of occurrence among both captive and free-ranging wild animal populations, discussion of importance to human health and wildlife conservation, and identification of priority areas for future research and monitoring efforts. Once most commonly identified in humans and domestic animals, AMR bacteria have now been reported to be widespread among free-ranging and captive wildlife and the broader environment. Antimicrobial resistance has been identified in wildlife inhabiting nearly every country, region, and habitat type from which samples have been obtained, although occurrence may be more common in animals that occupy anthropogenically impacted environments. Though AMR bacteria identified in free-ranging wildlife have generally not been associated with direct health impacts to the host, specific bacteria and types of resistance found in wildlife may be clinically relevant to humans. Furthermore, AMR bacteria harbored by captive or free-ranging animals may complicate veterinary treatment of captive, rare, or vulnerable wildlife provided care. Future investigations may obtain important information on the acquisition and dissemination of AMR bacteria by wildlife through the comparison of resistance harbored by bacteria from wildlife and the environments they occupy. The identification of specific environmental pathways through which resistance may be acquired would help to guide the development of intervention strategies to interrupt further spread of antimicrobial resistance to, from, and among wildlife. Implications of such strategies may also extend more broadly to promote domestic animal, human, and environmental health.

Book chapter↗
USGS2024

Seroprevalence, blood chemistry, and patterns of canine parvovirus, distemper virus, plague, and tularemia in free-ranging coyotes (Canis latrans) in northern New Mexico, USA.

Wildlife diseases have implications for ecology, conservation, human health, and health of domestic animals. They may impact wildlife health and population dynamics. Exposure rates of coyotes ( Canis latrans ) to pathogens such as Yersinia pestis , the cause of plague, may reflect prevalence rates in both rodent prey and human populations. We captured coyotes in north-central New Mexico during 2005–2008 and collected blood samples for serologic surveys. We tested for antibodies against canine distemper virus (CDV, Canine morbillivirus ), canine parvovirus (CPV, Carnivore protoparvovirus ), plague, tularemia ( Francisella tularensis ), and for canine heartworm ( Dirofilaria immitis ) antigen. Serum biochemistry variables that fell outside reference ranges were probably related to capture stress. We detected antibodies to parvovirus in 32/32 samples (100%), and to Y. pestis in 26/31 (84%). More than half 19/32 (59%) had antibodies against CDV, and 5/31 (39%) had antibodies against F. tularensis . We did not detect any heartworm antigens ( n = 9). Pathogen prevalence was similar between sexes and among the three coyote packs in the study area. Parvovirus exposure appeared to happen early in life, and prevalence of antibodies against CDV increased with increasing age class. Exposure to Y. pestis and F. tularensis occurred across all age classes. The high coyote seroprevalence rates observed for CPV, Y. pestis , and CDV may indicate high prevalence in sympatric vertebrate populations, with implications for regional wildlife conservation as well as risk to humans via zoonotic transmission.

New Mexico↗
USGS2023

Conserving habitat for migratory ungulates: How wide is a migration corridor?

Conserving migratory ungulates relies on the analysis of GPS collar data and associated maps of migration corridors to inform management and policy actions. Current methods for identifying migratory corridors use complex statistical models designed to account for movement uncertainty rather than estimating the amount of space required by animals to migrate. Furthermore, such methods can complicate conservation efforts by producing highly variable corridor widths and non-contiguous corridors that do not fully connect seasonal ranges. To remedy, we propose an intuitive line buffer approach for delineating individual migration corridors that is simple to implement and focuses on the functional corridor widths needed by migratory ungulates. By buffering a line that connects successive GPS locations, we can delineate individual migration corridors with consistent widths that are robust to variable parameters (GPS fix rate, travel speed, tortuosity) and provide contiguous connection between seasonal ranges. Using a combination of expert knowledge, simulation and 10-min GPS collar data collected from mule deer ( Odocoileus hemionus ) and pronghorn ( Antilocapra americana ), we suggest 400–600 m are reasonable estimates of functional migration corridor widths for individuals of those species. Synthesis and applications . Our line buffer approach is intended to simplify migration corridor delineation, improve transparency and encourage a broader discussion of functional corridor widths. These considerations help advance efforts to conserve habitat within migration corridors and prioritize conservation efforts within a single corridor or across multiple corridors.

Journal of Applied Ecology↗
USGS2011

Design of ecoregional monitoring in conservation areas of high-latitude ecosystems under contemporary climate change

Land ownership in Alaska includes a mosaic of federally managed units. Within its agency’s context, each unit has its own management strategy, authority, and resources of conservation concern, many of which are migratory animals. Though some units are geographically isolated, many are nevertheless linked by paths of abiotic and biotic flows, such as rivers, air masses, flyways, and terrestrial and aquatic migration routes. Furthermore, individual land units exist within the context of a larger landscape pattern of shifting conditions, requiring managers to understand at larger spatial scales the status and trends in the synchrony and spatial concurrence of species and associated suitable habitats. Results of these changes will determine the ability of Alaska lands to continue to: provide habitat for local and migratory species; absorb species whose ranges are shifting northward; and experience mitigation or exacerbation of climate change through positive and negative atmospheric feedbacks. We discuss the geographic and statutory contexts that influence development of ecological monitoring; argue for the inclusion of significant amounts of broad-scale monitoring; discuss the importance of defining clear programmatic and monitoring objectives; and draw from lessons learned from existing long-term, broad-scale monitoring programs to apply to the specific contexts relevant to high-latitude protected areas such as those in Alaska. Such areas are distinguished by their: marked seasonality; relatively large magnitudes of contemporary change in climatic parameters; and relative inaccessibility due to broad spatial extent, very low (or zero) road density, and steep and glaciated areas. For ecological monitoring to effectively support management decisions in high-latitude areas such as Alaska, a monitoring program ideally would be structured to address the actual spatial and temporal scales of relevant processes, rather than the artificial boundaries of individual land-management units. Heuristic models provide a means by which to integrate understanding of ecosystem structure, composition, and function, in the midst of numerous ecosystem drivers.

Alaska↗
USGS2008

Inference methods for spatial variation in species richness and community composition when not all species are detected

Inferences about spatial variation in species richness and community composition are important both to ecological hypotheses about the structure and function of communities and to community-level conservation and management. Few sampling programs for animal communities provide censuses, and usually some species in surveyed areas are not detected. Thus, counts of species detected underestimate the number of species present. We present estimators useful for drawing inferences about comparative species richness and composition between different sampling locations when not all species are detected in sampling efforts. Based on capture-recapture models using the robust design, our methods estimate relative species richness, proportion of species in one location that are also found in another, and number of species found in one location but not in another. The methods use data on the presence or absence of each species at different sampling occasions (or locations) to estimate the number of species not detected at any occasions (or locations). This approach permits estimation of the number of species in the sampled community and in subsets of the community useful for estimating the fraction of species shared by two communities. We provide an illustration of our estimation methods by comparing bird species richness and composition in two locations sampled by routes of the North American Breeding Bird Survey. In this example analysis, the two locations (and associated bird communities) represented different levels of urbanization. Estimates of relative richness, proportion of shared species, and number of species present on one route but not the other indicated that the route with the smaller fraction of urban area had greater richness and a larger number of species that were not found on the more urban route than vice versa. We developed a software package, COMDYN, for computing estimates based on these methods. Because these estimation methods explicitly deal with sampling in which not all species are detected, we recommend their use for addressing questions about species richness and community composition.

Conservation Biology↗
USGS2024

New approaches to wildlife health

Recent environmental change and biodiversity loss have modified ecosystems, altering disease dynamics. For wildlife health, this trend has translated into increased potential for disease transmission and reduced capacity to overcome significant population-level impacts, which may place species at risk of extinction. Thus, current approaches to wildlife health focus not on the absence of disease but rather on the concept of health promotion. That is, wildlife populations will be more resilient to disease if they have the basic requirements for survival, as well as functioning ecosystems, within an enabling socio-economic environment. In this context, animal health programmes must adapt to design and implement wildlife health programmes that bridge knowledge gaps and fully integrate conservation goals. This article proposes new pathways and additions to the animal health management toolbox, including new approaches to surveillance and information management, partnerships and new wildlife health management practices. Solely because of risks to domesticated animals and human health, the traditional approach to disease surveillance in wild animals has now been replaced by a drive to recognise the intrinsic value of wildlife and the extended benefits of actively pursuing ecosystem health and associated life-sustaining ecosystem services. In this context, it is paramount to transition to holistic health programmes that embrace One Health as a pathway to set the health of all on equal footing.

Scientific and Technical Review↗
USGS2018

Adaptive management of animal populations with significant unknowns and uncertainties: A case study

Conservation and management decision making in natural resources is challenging due to numerous uncertainties and unknowns, especially relating to understanding system dynamics. Adaptive resource management (ARM) is a formal process to making logical and transparent recurrent decisions when there are uncertainties about system dynamics. Despite wide recognition and calls for implementing adaptive natural resource management, applications remain limited. More common is a reactive approach to decision making, which ignores future system dynamics. This contrasts with ARM, which anticipates future dynamics of ecological process and management actions using a model-based framework. Practitioners may be reluctant to adopt ARM because of the dearth of comparative evaluations between ARM and more common approaches to making decisions. We compared the probability of meeting management objectives when managing a population under both types of decision frameworks, specifically in relation to typical uncertainties and unknowns. We use a population of Sandhill Cranes as our case study. We evaluate each decision process under varying levels of monitoring and ecological uncertainty, where the true underlying population dynamics followed a stochastic age-structured population model with environmentally driven vital rate density dependence. We found that the ARM framework outperformed the currently employed reactive decision framework to manage Sandhill Cranes in meeting the population objective across an array of scenarios. This was even the case when the candidate set of population models contained only naïve representations of the true population process. Under the reactive decision framework, we found little improvement in meeting the population objective even if monitoring uncertainty was eliminated. In contrast, if the population was monitored without error within the ARM framework, the population objective was always maintained, regardless of the population models considered. Contrary to expectation, we found that age-specific optimal harvest decisions are not always necessary to meet a population objective when population dynamics are age structured. Population managers can decrease risks and gain transparency and flexibility in management by adopting an ARM framework. If population monitoring data has high sampling variation and/or limited empirical knowledge is available for constructing mechanistic population models, ARM model sets should consider a range of mechanistic, descriptive, and predictive model types.

Ecological Applications↗
USGS2022

Long-term apparent survival of a cold-stunned subpopulation of juveniles green turtles

Understanding the effects of extreme weather on animal populations is fundamental to ecological and conservation sciences and species management. Climate change has resulted in both warm and cold temperature extremes, including an increased frequency of severe cold snaps at middle latitudes in North America. These unusually cold air masses cause rapid declines in nearshore ocean temperatures in coastal areas, with detrimental effects on marine organisms. Acute cold-stun events (hereafter cold stuns) occur when hundreds to thousands of resident juvenile sea turtles fail to escape shallow water during cold snaps. Human intervention through rescue and recovery largely mitigates direct juvenile sea turtle mortality, but delayed effects of cold stuns on rescued individuals are not well understood. Our objective was to examine long-term juvenile green turtle ( Chelonia mydas ) survival across four cold stuns of varying severity in St. Joseph Bay, Florida, between 2010 and 2018. We used the classic Cormack–Jolly–Seber model in a hierarchical Bayesian framework to estimate apparent survival (i.e., emigration and mortality) of rescued turtles at different time intervals. Our results indicated about half of a cohort rescued during a severe cold stun in January 2010 likely remained in the population 1 year later, with 10%–20% remaining 4 years later, and as few as 5% by 2018. The results also suggested higher apparent survival for cohorts rescued during two subsequent milder cold stuns. Emigration was a more plausible ecological explanation for low apparent survival than delayed mortality. Potential ecological mechanisms underlying emigration include a reduction in food availability and a behavioral response to either the severe weather event or handling during rescue (or both). However, the typical annual turnover of juvenile green turtles, though assumed low, is not well known in St. Joseph Bay. Thus, our apparent survival estimates may be reflective of higher-than-expected emigration in the broader population. Our study provides important baseline information about long-term juvenile sea turtle survival after cold stuns in temperate regions. We also highlight the importance of strategic monitoring between cold stuns to examine additional ecological questions.

Florida↗