Using structured decision making to assess management alternatives to inform the 2024 update of the Minnesota Invasive Carp Action Plan

Abstract

This report summarizes the results of a structured decision making process started by the Minnesota Department of Natural Resources to develop and evaluate various invasive carp management strategies to inform a 2024 update of the Minnesota Invasive Carp Action Plan. The Minnesota Department of Natural Resources invited State, Federal, Tribal, and nongovernmental organization partners to participate in online and in-person workshops to elicit concerns and perform an expert-based assessment of potential invasive carp management strategies to address those concerns. The participatory group divided into two subgroups: the values team and the technical team. The values team specified 12 management objectives that captured the major interest group concerns. The technical and values teams developed 18 different invasive carp management strategies to compare. The technical team then scored each strategy in terms of how well it met each management objective. The values team weighted the management objectives to assess where tradeoffs might need to be made. The results of this process captured the wide range of partner concerns and technical opinions using a transparent, repeatable, and rigorous method. The analyses suggest that tradeoffs between management efficacy and cost are likely. Furthermore, considerable uncertainty exists among the technical experts regarding which strategy is likely to be most effective or cost-efficient. Followup analyses were done to assess how resolving uncertainty among experts could affect decision making and guide future monitoring efforts.